The SEC was talked about as the best conference in college basketball in the preseason, but I don't think they've lived up to that billing. They have a pretty small tournament tournament contingent at the moment, and you could make a real argument that there are only 7 tournament teams in the conference at the moment despite some teams that should be doing much better. Still, the top of the conference is absolutely elite, and I'm very high on some of the teams here. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @ThreePointRange if you want more college basketball in your feed, and enjoy a fun Saturday of college basketball.
Thoughts
- LSU is 8-1 in the SEC and living up to the preseason hype that many, including myself, had for them. I'm a big fan of this Tigers' team, with point guard Tremont Waters finding his star form from last season, and their highly touted freshman class, led by Naz Reid, is playing very well. They are a high octane team that plays at a very fast pace, and it is fun to watch. However, the team is in a slight skid. They suffered their first loss in SEC play at home against Arkansas, who I'll get into in a second, and then needed overtime to take down Mississippi State. There are some ways to beat them, since their offense turns the ball over a decent amount and is prone to sneakiness shooting the ball, and their defense struggles to get rebounds. They have a tough stretch coming up where they face off against Auburn and Kentucky, so they need to look good in this stretch to confirm their status as one of the SEC's elite.
- One team that hasn't lived up their preseason expectations is Florida. I fully expected the Gators to be a borderline top 25 team, but thus far, that hasn't been the case, and especially as of late, they have looked pretty bad. They have lost three of their last four games, and while that was a very tough stretch, they blew two of those games late and they don't have the offensive firepower to beat teams, which sounds really strange given their roster. Jalen Hudson and Kevaughn Allen were both dynamic scorers once upon a time, but both have completely fallen off and the offense has been bad without those two. While Andrew Nembhard is a good point guard and Noah Locke can take over games with his shooting, but is still streaky as a freshman, and they don't really have a guy who they can give the ball to at the end of the game and feel comfortable in knowing he will be able to score, and that really hurt them at the end of the TCU game and when Kentucky went on their run and Florida had no answer. The defense has been better this season, but their offense has really fallen off and I'm worried about their tournament hopes right now.
- I was pretty unsuccessful in my game previews last week, missing on a few games. One of those was the Egg Bowl between Mississippi State and Mississippi. My big thing was Ole Miss would get hot from three and outgun the Bulldogs from deep, winning the game. And they shot quite well from deep, going 11-21 from downtown, yet Mississippi State prevailed on the road. The biggest reason why was the boards, as they out rebounded their rivals 40-28, and grabbed 15 offensive rebounds which led to 19 second chance points for the Bulldogs. The main beneficiary was freshman Reggie Perry, who grabbed 7 offensive boards on his way to a 21 point and 11 rebound double double. Quinndary Weatherspoon was also really great, scoring 27 points, getting 8 rebounds, and getting 4 steals, which gave them even more easy points. This was a big win for the Bulldogs, and they are looking to build off of it in conference play.
- Another prediction I got wrong was Kentucky at Florida. I predicted a big upset for the Gators, with their press slowing down the Wildcats and possibly forcing turnovers from an inexperienced backcourt, a big game from either Hudson or Allen, and historical trends predicting a Kentucky loss. And for about 30 minutes, I looked like a genius, as the Gators were in control of the game and had Kentucky playing at their tempo. Then everything went Kentucky's way, with Tyler Herro waking up and getting hot, PJ Washington continuing his dominance, and the Wildcats ended the game on a 34-12 run from the 13 minute mark in the second half. I did say that I thought Kentucky would win the glass, and they certainly did, winning the battle on the glass 46-34 and grabbing 14 offensive rebounds. Kentucky is NBA Jam on fire right now, and they don't look like losing anytime soon, and the fact that they can win these slower paced grinder games is really impressive.
Power Rankings
1. Tennessee (1)
Record: 21-1, 9-0
2. Kentucky (2)
Record: 19-3, 8-1
3. LSU (3)
Record: 18-4, 8-1
4. Auburn (4)
Record: 16-6, 5-4
5. Mississippi State (5)
Record: 16-6, 4-5
6. Mississippi (6)
Record: 15-7, 5-4
7. Alabama (7)
Record: 14-8, 5-4
8. South Carolina (9)
Record: 11-11, 6-3
9. Arkansas (10)
Record: 14-8, 5-4
10. Florida (8)
Record: 12-10, 4-5
11. Missouri (11)
Record: 11-10, 2-7
12. Georgia (12)
Record: 10-12, 1-8
13. Vanderbilt (13)
Record: 9-13, 0-9
14. Texas A&M (14)
Record: 8-13, 1-8
What to Watch
- Kentucky heads to Starkville for a rematch with Mississippi State, and it's a matchup I'm pretty excited for. In their last meeting, Kentucky won a blowout, winning 76-55 and it was an odd game. The Bulldogs got no offensive production from either one of the starting big men, Abdul Ado and Aric Holman, who both didn't score despite each playing at least 20 minutes. The biggest difference was the assists numbers, as Kentucky had 14 while Mississippi State only had 5, and the Bulldogs closing that gap will be huge. There are two really intriguing matchups here that can determine this game in Ashton Hagans versus Lamar Peters and PJ Washington against Reggie Perry. First off, Peters is a pretty big part of the Bulldogs' offense, leading the team in assists and dictating the offense for Mississippi State. Meanwhile, Hagans is an absolute menace defensively, with a top 10 steal rate in the country and averaging 2.3 steals a game right now. Peters is prone to turnovers, so if he can't clean up his play in this one, Hagans could have a field day while defending him and force him off of the court. In the other matchup, it's two players at the top of their game right now, with Washington averaging 20.4 points and 9.6 rebounds over his last five games, and Perry going for 17 points and 9.8 rebounds over his last four contests, so whoever can have the better game will give their team an advantage. I think they could be matched up on each other, which would give Washington the advantage given his athleticism and his better defensive play. Given those two factors, I expect this to be a Kentucky victory.
- There will be a really fun game in Baton Rogue between Auburn and LSU. Both of them play at high paces, and both Tigers will be looking for a big win in this contest. Auburn is one of the best team in the country at forcing turnovers, actually leading the nation in turnover percentage, and ranking fifth in steal percentage. On the surface, this would look like a bad matchup for LSU, who have struggled to take care of the ball, especially Tremont Waters, but I don't think it will be as bad as it looks initially. LSU is also good at forcing turnovers, and they would prefer to play a high tempo game, so even if they turn it over, it could lead right into their hand against Auburn. However, I'm still going to take Auburn for another reason, their shooting. LSU is streaky at best from deep, and Auburn is very good from three, so I think they can make enough of those shots to win this game.
- LSU gets no rest, as they have to travel to Kentucky in their next game. The Wildcats could very well be on a 10 game winning streak if the Mississippi State goes the way I expect it to, and I think they'll make it 11 in this one. As I just mentioned, LSU has turnover issues and Ashton Hagans hears that and his mouth starts salivating. As much as I love Tremont Waters, he can get out of control and that will absolutely not work in this one. I think that Kentucky also has some other big advantages, mostly on the glass. The Tigers like to play smaller, which means PJ Washington will have a field day, because who is guarding him? Emmitt Williams has to be the best matchup, but he is 6'6" and not a great defender at this point, so he should have another big game. This just isn't a good matchup for the Bayou Bengals, and I think Kentucky keeps up their winning streak.
- In a matchup of inconsistent teams, Alabama heads to Mississippi State. Both of these teams seem to trade off winning and losing in every game. Going just by that, Alabama could be coming in on a two game winning streak and Mississippi State on a two game losing streak, which would hand an advantage to the Bulldogs using that logic. In an actual breakdown, it should be a pretty hotly contested matchup, and I'm not sure where to lean. Alabama has an advantage at getting to the foul line and Mississippi State fouls a lot, but the Crimson Tide struggle from the line, so that isn't as big of an advantage as it might initially appear. The Tide also aren't poised to take advantage of the Bulldogs' turnover issues, so Mississippi State has the initial edge. However, teams do a pretty good job at making shots against the Bulldogs, which could mean John Petty and Tevin Mack have big games for Bama. I'll take the home team in this one, and that means Mississippi State is my pick here.
- Ole Miss is going to Auburn for a fun matchup. As I mentioned earlier, Auburn likes to play fast, and the Rebels will run with them, so expect more fireworks. In the last matchup, Mississippi won by 15 in their last meeting in Oxford, so Auburn should be looking for a revenge win. During their tough stretch recently, Mississippi has struggled defensively, so I don't love that for this matchup against a high scoring Auburn team. They'll need to find a way to stop Bryce Brown, who scored 23 points in their last game, and the best matchup is probably Terence Davis, but no one in the back court, including Davis, are necessarily good defenders, so I don't know if they can slow down Brown and his scoring mates. I'll say that the Rebels struggles continue and Auburn takes this matchup.
Full SEC Schedule 2/9-2/14
2/9
Kentucky @ Mississippi State
Mississippi @ Georgia
Auburn @ LSU
Arkansas @ South Carolina
Florida @ Tennessee
Texas A&M @ Missouri
Alabama @ Vanderbilt
2/12
LSU @ Kentucky
Georgia @ Texas A&M
Alabama @ Mississippi State
Arkansas @ Missouri
2/13
South Carolina @ Tennessee
Mississippi @ Auburn
Vanderbilt @ Florida
Tournament Tracker
Locks: Tennessee, Kentucky
Nothing has changed here, as both these teams continue to cement their position in the tournament with victories, and the biggest question here is will Kentucky be a 1 seed come tournament team? A lot will depend on the matchups between these two teams, which will be really fun to watch, so that is something to watch as the season continues.
In the Field: LSU, Auburn, Mississippi State
LSU still looks like a no doubt tournament team, even if they took their first loss in conference play to Arkansas recently. Oklahoma State isn't a great loss, but it won't hold them back given the strength of their resume. Auburn has now gone on a three game winning streak after losing three straight prior, and while their resume isn't as strong as you might think, Auburn is solidly in the field right now. Mississippi State probably has the best resume of this group, so they'll be dancing as well.
Bubble: Ole Miss, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, Arkansas
Arkansas looked like they were out of the tournament conversation, but they've recently begun to play their way back onto the bubble. They've won four of their last five, with their only loss being a 3 point road loss to Texas Tech. Their away win over LSU will hold a lot of weight now comes tournament time, and the Indiana win has gotten a lot worse, but it's still not too bad, especially if the Hoosiers make the field. Mississippi has done the opposite, losing five of seven and moving back towards the bubble when it looked like they were heading towards a really nice seed.
Out: Missouri, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M
Sorry guys, maybe next year (especially you, Georgia).
Thoughts
- LSU is 8-1 in the SEC and living up to the preseason hype that many, including myself, had for them. I'm a big fan of this Tigers' team, with point guard Tremont Waters finding his star form from last season, and their highly touted freshman class, led by Naz Reid, is playing very well. They are a high octane team that plays at a very fast pace, and it is fun to watch. However, the team is in a slight skid. They suffered their first loss in SEC play at home against Arkansas, who I'll get into in a second, and then needed overtime to take down Mississippi State. There are some ways to beat them, since their offense turns the ball over a decent amount and is prone to sneakiness shooting the ball, and their defense struggles to get rebounds. They have a tough stretch coming up where they face off against Auburn and Kentucky, so they need to look good in this stretch to confirm their status as one of the SEC's elite.
- One team that hasn't lived up their preseason expectations is Florida. I fully expected the Gators to be a borderline top 25 team, but thus far, that hasn't been the case, and especially as of late, they have looked pretty bad. They have lost three of their last four games, and while that was a very tough stretch, they blew two of those games late and they don't have the offensive firepower to beat teams, which sounds really strange given their roster. Jalen Hudson and Kevaughn Allen were both dynamic scorers once upon a time, but both have completely fallen off and the offense has been bad without those two. While Andrew Nembhard is a good point guard and Noah Locke can take over games with his shooting, but is still streaky as a freshman, and they don't really have a guy who they can give the ball to at the end of the game and feel comfortable in knowing he will be able to score, and that really hurt them at the end of the TCU game and when Kentucky went on their run and Florida had no answer. The defense has been better this season, but their offense has really fallen off and I'm worried about their tournament hopes right now.
- I was pretty unsuccessful in my game previews last week, missing on a few games. One of those was the Egg Bowl between Mississippi State and Mississippi. My big thing was Ole Miss would get hot from three and outgun the Bulldogs from deep, winning the game. And they shot quite well from deep, going 11-21 from downtown, yet Mississippi State prevailed on the road. The biggest reason why was the boards, as they out rebounded their rivals 40-28, and grabbed 15 offensive rebounds which led to 19 second chance points for the Bulldogs. The main beneficiary was freshman Reggie Perry, who grabbed 7 offensive boards on his way to a 21 point and 11 rebound double double. Quinndary Weatherspoon was also really great, scoring 27 points, getting 8 rebounds, and getting 4 steals, which gave them even more easy points. This was a big win for the Bulldogs, and they are looking to build off of it in conference play.
- Another prediction I got wrong was Kentucky at Florida. I predicted a big upset for the Gators, with their press slowing down the Wildcats and possibly forcing turnovers from an inexperienced backcourt, a big game from either Hudson or Allen, and historical trends predicting a Kentucky loss. And for about 30 minutes, I looked like a genius, as the Gators were in control of the game and had Kentucky playing at their tempo. Then everything went Kentucky's way, with Tyler Herro waking up and getting hot, PJ Washington continuing his dominance, and the Wildcats ended the game on a 34-12 run from the 13 minute mark in the second half. I did say that I thought Kentucky would win the glass, and they certainly did, winning the battle on the glass 46-34 and grabbing 14 offensive rebounds. Kentucky is NBA Jam on fire right now, and they don't look like losing anytime soon, and the fact that they can win these slower paced grinder games is really impressive.
Power Rankings
1. Tennessee (1)
Record: 21-1, 9-0
2. Kentucky (2)
Record: 19-3, 8-1
3. LSU (3)
Record: 18-4, 8-1
4. Auburn (4)
Record: 16-6, 5-4
5. Mississippi State (5)
Record: 16-6, 4-5
6. Mississippi (6)
Record: 15-7, 5-4
7. Alabama (7)
Record: 14-8, 5-4
8. South Carolina (9)
Record: 11-11, 6-3
9. Arkansas (10)
Record: 14-8, 5-4
10. Florida (8)
Record: 12-10, 4-5
11. Missouri (11)
Record: 11-10, 2-7
12. Georgia (12)
Record: 10-12, 1-8
13. Vanderbilt (13)
Record: 9-13, 0-9
14. Texas A&M (14)
Record: 8-13, 1-8
What to Watch
- Kentucky heads to Starkville for a rematch with Mississippi State, and it's a matchup I'm pretty excited for. In their last meeting, Kentucky won a blowout, winning 76-55 and it was an odd game. The Bulldogs got no offensive production from either one of the starting big men, Abdul Ado and Aric Holman, who both didn't score despite each playing at least 20 minutes. The biggest difference was the assists numbers, as Kentucky had 14 while Mississippi State only had 5, and the Bulldogs closing that gap will be huge. There are two really intriguing matchups here that can determine this game in Ashton Hagans versus Lamar Peters and PJ Washington against Reggie Perry. First off, Peters is a pretty big part of the Bulldogs' offense, leading the team in assists and dictating the offense for Mississippi State. Meanwhile, Hagans is an absolute menace defensively, with a top 10 steal rate in the country and averaging 2.3 steals a game right now. Peters is prone to turnovers, so if he can't clean up his play in this one, Hagans could have a field day while defending him and force him off of the court. In the other matchup, it's two players at the top of their game right now, with Washington averaging 20.4 points and 9.6 rebounds over his last five games, and Perry going for 17 points and 9.8 rebounds over his last four contests, so whoever can have the better game will give their team an advantage. I think they could be matched up on each other, which would give Washington the advantage given his athleticism and his better defensive play. Given those two factors, I expect this to be a Kentucky victory.
- There will be a really fun game in Baton Rogue between Auburn and LSU. Both of them play at high paces, and both Tigers will be looking for a big win in this contest. Auburn is one of the best team in the country at forcing turnovers, actually leading the nation in turnover percentage, and ranking fifth in steal percentage. On the surface, this would look like a bad matchup for LSU, who have struggled to take care of the ball, especially Tremont Waters, but I don't think it will be as bad as it looks initially. LSU is also good at forcing turnovers, and they would prefer to play a high tempo game, so even if they turn it over, it could lead right into their hand against Auburn. However, I'm still going to take Auburn for another reason, their shooting. LSU is streaky at best from deep, and Auburn is very good from three, so I think they can make enough of those shots to win this game.
- LSU gets no rest, as they have to travel to Kentucky in their next game. The Wildcats could very well be on a 10 game winning streak if the Mississippi State goes the way I expect it to, and I think they'll make it 11 in this one. As I just mentioned, LSU has turnover issues and Ashton Hagans hears that and his mouth starts salivating. As much as I love Tremont Waters, he can get out of control and that will absolutely not work in this one. I think that Kentucky also has some other big advantages, mostly on the glass. The Tigers like to play smaller, which means PJ Washington will have a field day, because who is guarding him? Emmitt Williams has to be the best matchup, but he is 6'6" and not a great defender at this point, so he should have another big game. This just isn't a good matchup for the Bayou Bengals, and I think Kentucky keeps up their winning streak.
- In a matchup of inconsistent teams, Alabama heads to Mississippi State. Both of these teams seem to trade off winning and losing in every game. Going just by that, Alabama could be coming in on a two game winning streak and Mississippi State on a two game losing streak, which would hand an advantage to the Bulldogs using that logic. In an actual breakdown, it should be a pretty hotly contested matchup, and I'm not sure where to lean. Alabama has an advantage at getting to the foul line and Mississippi State fouls a lot, but the Crimson Tide struggle from the line, so that isn't as big of an advantage as it might initially appear. The Tide also aren't poised to take advantage of the Bulldogs' turnover issues, so Mississippi State has the initial edge. However, teams do a pretty good job at making shots against the Bulldogs, which could mean John Petty and Tevin Mack have big games for Bama. I'll take the home team in this one, and that means Mississippi State is my pick here.
- Ole Miss is going to Auburn for a fun matchup. As I mentioned earlier, Auburn likes to play fast, and the Rebels will run with them, so expect more fireworks. In the last matchup, Mississippi won by 15 in their last meeting in Oxford, so Auburn should be looking for a revenge win. During their tough stretch recently, Mississippi has struggled defensively, so I don't love that for this matchup against a high scoring Auburn team. They'll need to find a way to stop Bryce Brown, who scored 23 points in their last game, and the best matchup is probably Terence Davis, but no one in the back court, including Davis, are necessarily good defenders, so I don't know if they can slow down Brown and his scoring mates. I'll say that the Rebels struggles continue and Auburn takes this matchup.
Full SEC Schedule 2/9-2/14
2/9
Kentucky @ Mississippi State
Mississippi @ Georgia
Auburn @ LSU
Arkansas @ South Carolina
Florida @ Tennessee
Texas A&M @ Missouri
Alabama @ Vanderbilt
2/12
LSU @ Kentucky
Georgia @ Texas A&M
Alabama @ Mississippi State
Arkansas @ Missouri
2/13
South Carolina @ Tennessee
Mississippi @ Auburn
Vanderbilt @ Florida
Tournament Tracker
Locks: Tennessee, Kentucky
Nothing has changed here, as both these teams continue to cement their position in the tournament with victories, and the biggest question here is will Kentucky be a 1 seed come tournament team? A lot will depend on the matchups between these two teams, which will be really fun to watch, so that is something to watch as the season continues.
In the Field: LSU, Auburn, Mississippi State
LSU still looks like a no doubt tournament team, even if they took their first loss in conference play to Arkansas recently. Oklahoma State isn't a great loss, but it won't hold them back given the strength of their resume. Auburn has now gone on a three game winning streak after losing three straight prior, and while their resume isn't as strong as you might think, Auburn is solidly in the field right now. Mississippi State probably has the best resume of this group, so they'll be dancing as well.
Bubble: Ole Miss, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, Arkansas
Arkansas looked like they were out of the tournament conversation, but they've recently begun to play their way back onto the bubble. They've won four of their last five, with their only loss being a 3 point road loss to Texas Tech. Their away win over LSU will hold a lot of weight now comes tournament time, and the Indiana win has gotten a lot worse, but it's still not too bad, especially if the Hoosiers make the field. Mississippi has done the opposite, losing five of seven and moving back towards the bubble when it looked like they were heading towards a really nice seed.
Out: Missouri, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M
Sorry guys, maybe next year (especially you, Georgia).
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