The Big 12 has one of the most interesting storylines in college basketball this year, as it is beginning to look more and more likely that Kansas' streak of 14 straight Big 12 titles will end this year. Bill Self has had a run of dominance atop the conference, but with a struggling team and some challengers who could cause a lot of problems, Kansas seems very vulnerable right now. It's still really hard for me to say they won't win the league, given their incredible home court advantage, the on court talent and potential, and their historical dominance, but it is certainly something to watch as the season progresses. I will be talking about them on Twitter @ThreePointRange, so be sure to follow along for all things relating to college basketball.
Thoughts
- Kansas has to be legitimately worried at this point in time. This is a team that has lost four of their last six games, has juts one true road win, and they just announced Lagerald Vick will be taking a leave of absence. Vick is probably the second best player on this roster, as well as being very experienced, and he is the premier floor spacing option on a Jayhawks roster that lacks perimeter shooting. When they can hit their shots, they are a very dangerous team, as we saw in their win over Texas Tech. They made 13 threes in that game, and the offense looked as good as it has in recent memory. However, we also saw the low points of this team in their loss to in-state rival Kansas State, when they made just 7 threes and were stifled on the offensive end by a stout Wildcats defense. They are now without one of their best players to go along with all of their other problems, so it's really starting to feel like this is the year that the Jayhawks' atop the Big 12 ends.
- I'm still not fully comfortable saying that Kansas isn't going to win the Big 12, but if they don't, I think Iowa State is the favorite to take home the title. They currently sit at a game ahead of the Jayhawks and half a game back of Kansas State. I'm buying into the offense of the Cyclones, and we've seen some really great performances from them, and that offense has given them some great results. They beat Kansas by 17 at home, and we've seen them get road victories over Texas Tech and Oklahoma, both teams with very good defenses. They have a Villanova-esque system with four very good wing players who can shoot and share the ball really well. There isn't an offense in this league that comes close to what they have, so I'll say that they get the Big 12 crown this year.
- Oklahoma was a team that I thought was miscast as a top 25 team heading into conference play, and they have fallen off towards the bottom of the conference. They are currently 3-7 in Big 12 play, and have lost three straight games, including one to West Virginia. It just doesn't seem like they have the talent on their roster to get wins in this stacked conference. They were getting really good production from Aaron Calixte and Miles Reynolds, two low major transfers, and that just wasn't sustainable. Christian James has also been very inconsistent, and he seems to drift in and out of games from time to time. The offense is just not good enough to break down a lot of these great Big 12 defenses, so they seem to be trending the wrong way.
- The Texas win over Baylor was really interesting to me. This was a really good win for the Longhorns as they look to reinforce their resume, headlined by some huge wins, and this was another game that continued to show me this team's improved shooting. Are they a great shooting team by any means? No, but I think they have the ability to make shots from deep with a little bit of consistency, which is something I haven't been able to say about the Longhorns in a while. As for Baylor, this just showed how important Makai Mason has become to this team. He only managed 5 points in this game, and he really struggled against the athleticism of Texas. I'm still in on the Bears as a tournament team, and this was just a bad game for their team.
Power Rankings
1. Iowa State (1)
Record: 18-5, 7-3
2. Kansas State (5)
Record: 17-5, 7-2
3. Texas Tech (2)
Record: 18-5, 6-4
4. Kansas (3)
Record: 17-6, 6-4
5. Baylor (4)
Record: 15-7, 6-3
6. Texas (6)
Record: 13-10, 5-5
7. TCU (7)
Record: 16-6, 4-5
8. Oklahoma (8)
Record: 15-8, 3-7
9. Oklahoma State (9)
Record: 9-13, 2-7
10. West Virginia (10)
Record: 10-13, 2-8
What to Watch
- Texas Tech travels to Oklahoma to take on the Sooners in what should be a very defensive game. Both of these teams are top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and neither has a very good offense. However, I have very few doubts about the way this game goes, and I think it'll be a Red Raiders victory. For one, they have the best player on the court in Jarrett Culver, and I don't think Christian James, or anyone on the Sooners, can guard him, as we saw in their last meeting when he scored 23 points and got 13 rebounds. I also think that the Sooners just don't have the offensive options to be able to break down this stout defense. James needs to have a very big game for Oklahoma to win, but as I mentioned earlier, I don't think he is the type of take over a game player that can beat this team, and last time they played, he shot 3-10 from deep, despite the fact he isn't a very good player. All of this just makes me think that this will be a season sweep for Texas Tech.
- Kansas State travels to Waco and this might be the game I'm most interested in this week in the Big 12. The Wildcats are a very good defensive team, and they have a good chance at being able to stop Baylor from scoring. However, the reason I'm taking Baylor to win this game is their zone defense. It gives good offensive teams problem, and Kansas State is not that. Furthermore, they are a team that has an atrocious zone offense, and they have seen zone from teams like Kansas who rarely run a zone, and they now have to face a team that not only plays zone, but plays zone really well. I think Jarod Butler is the difference, as he continues his breakout in Big 12 play as Barry Brown has to focus on Makai Mason. Baylor should be able to get another good win at home.
- Kansas will be headed to TCU in a matchup of two struggling teams. I went through the problems with the Jayhawks earlier, and it looks like the loss of Jaylen Fisher has caught up to the Horned Frogs, losing two of their last three, which each loss coming in a blowout. In the first meeting between these two teams, Kansas won 77-68, although that game was in Phogg Allen, which is one of the best home court advantages in college basketball. I'm very intrigued by this game, and I really don't have a great feel for which way it is going to swing. TCU really doesn't have an answer for Dedric Lawson, which is a recipe for disaster when playing against Kansas. Then again, I don't see why they wouldn't just continually double down on him and force the wings on Kansas to make jump shots, which is by no means a strength of the team. I also kind of like the matchup for TCU's offense, and I don't really think Devon Dotson, Quentin Grimes, and Ochai Agbaji will be able to guard Alex Robinson, Desmond Bane, and Kouat Noi, and Dedric Lawson is actually a pretty bad matchup for Kevin Samuel defensively. I think TCU pulls it out and further buries Kansas' Big 12 title hopes.
- Kansas State heads to Texas to take on the Fighting Matthew McConaugehy's. As with every Kansas State game, it comes down to can their defense make the opposing team worse than their offense? In this case, I think they can. Texas is a team that can struggle on offense, and while they beat the Wildcats by 20 earlier in the season, they faced them without Dean Wade, who makes them an entirely new team. That game also featured Jase Febres going 7-9 from three and scoring 23 points, which I would say is unlikely to happen again. The Longhorns are 3-8 when scoring under 70 points, and I think Kansas State can hold them under that, so I'll say the Wildcats get a nice road victory.
Full Big 12 Schedule 2/7-2/13
2/9
Oklahoma State @ Kansas
TCU @ Iowa State
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma
Kansas State @ Baylor
Texas @ West Virginia
2/11
Kansas @ TCU
Oklahoma @ Baylor
2/12
Kansas State @ Texas
2/13
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State
Tournament Tracker
Locks: N/A
There are still no locks in the field from the Big 12, especially as Kansas continues its struggles. Kansas still might be the closest thanks to their notable big wins, but they have the potential to really struggle as time goes on.
In the Field: Kansas, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas State
I've moved Kansas State up into the field after their victory over Kansas. The Wildcats have some bad losses, but also the best in-conference record at 7-2, and they are an absolutely elite defensive team. So is Texas Tech, who is looking good right now, while Iowa State stands out on the other side of the floor. I'd be pretty shocked if any of these teams missed on out March, but I don't think they are locks just yet.
Bubble: Baylor, Texas, TCU, Oklahoma
Oklahoma is really holding onto the bubble right now. The loss to West Virginia was the first truly bad one of the season, but with just solid victories over other bubble teams on their resume (Wofford, Florida, Creighton, TCU), and a fairly large quantity of losses at this point in time, they will have to avoid losses like that to keep their resume looking good. The other teams should feel pretty good about their spot in the field right now, but that could change very quickly.
Out: Oklahoma State, West Virginia
No changes here, neither one of these teams will be dancing.
Thoughts
- Kansas has to be legitimately worried at this point in time. This is a team that has lost four of their last six games, has juts one true road win, and they just announced Lagerald Vick will be taking a leave of absence. Vick is probably the second best player on this roster, as well as being very experienced, and he is the premier floor spacing option on a Jayhawks roster that lacks perimeter shooting. When they can hit their shots, they are a very dangerous team, as we saw in their win over Texas Tech. They made 13 threes in that game, and the offense looked as good as it has in recent memory. However, we also saw the low points of this team in their loss to in-state rival Kansas State, when they made just 7 threes and were stifled on the offensive end by a stout Wildcats defense. They are now without one of their best players to go along with all of their other problems, so it's really starting to feel like this is the year that the Jayhawks' atop the Big 12 ends.
- I'm still not fully comfortable saying that Kansas isn't going to win the Big 12, but if they don't, I think Iowa State is the favorite to take home the title. They currently sit at a game ahead of the Jayhawks and half a game back of Kansas State. I'm buying into the offense of the Cyclones, and we've seen some really great performances from them, and that offense has given them some great results. They beat Kansas by 17 at home, and we've seen them get road victories over Texas Tech and Oklahoma, both teams with very good defenses. They have a Villanova-esque system with four very good wing players who can shoot and share the ball really well. There isn't an offense in this league that comes close to what they have, so I'll say that they get the Big 12 crown this year.
- Oklahoma was a team that I thought was miscast as a top 25 team heading into conference play, and they have fallen off towards the bottom of the conference. They are currently 3-7 in Big 12 play, and have lost three straight games, including one to West Virginia. It just doesn't seem like they have the talent on their roster to get wins in this stacked conference. They were getting really good production from Aaron Calixte and Miles Reynolds, two low major transfers, and that just wasn't sustainable. Christian James has also been very inconsistent, and he seems to drift in and out of games from time to time. The offense is just not good enough to break down a lot of these great Big 12 defenses, so they seem to be trending the wrong way.
- The Texas win over Baylor was really interesting to me. This was a really good win for the Longhorns as they look to reinforce their resume, headlined by some huge wins, and this was another game that continued to show me this team's improved shooting. Are they a great shooting team by any means? No, but I think they have the ability to make shots from deep with a little bit of consistency, which is something I haven't been able to say about the Longhorns in a while. As for Baylor, this just showed how important Makai Mason has become to this team. He only managed 5 points in this game, and he really struggled against the athleticism of Texas. I'm still in on the Bears as a tournament team, and this was just a bad game for their team.
Power Rankings
1. Iowa State (1)
Record: 18-5, 7-3
2. Kansas State (5)
Record: 17-5, 7-2
3. Texas Tech (2)
Record: 18-5, 6-4
4. Kansas (3)
Record: 17-6, 6-4
5. Baylor (4)
Record: 15-7, 6-3
6. Texas (6)
Record: 13-10, 5-5
7. TCU (7)
Record: 16-6, 4-5
8. Oklahoma (8)
Record: 15-8, 3-7
9. Oklahoma State (9)
Record: 9-13, 2-7
10. West Virginia (10)
Record: 10-13, 2-8
What to Watch
- Texas Tech travels to Oklahoma to take on the Sooners in what should be a very defensive game. Both of these teams are top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and neither has a very good offense. However, I have very few doubts about the way this game goes, and I think it'll be a Red Raiders victory. For one, they have the best player on the court in Jarrett Culver, and I don't think Christian James, or anyone on the Sooners, can guard him, as we saw in their last meeting when he scored 23 points and got 13 rebounds. I also think that the Sooners just don't have the offensive options to be able to break down this stout defense. James needs to have a very big game for Oklahoma to win, but as I mentioned earlier, I don't think he is the type of take over a game player that can beat this team, and last time they played, he shot 3-10 from deep, despite the fact he isn't a very good player. All of this just makes me think that this will be a season sweep for Texas Tech.
- Kansas State travels to Waco and this might be the game I'm most interested in this week in the Big 12. The Wildcats are a very good defensive team, and they have a good chance at being able to stop Baylor from scoring. However, the reason I'm taking Baylor to win this game is their zone defense. It gives good offensive teams problem, and Kansas State is not that. Furthermore, they are a team that has an atrocious zone offense, and they have seen zone from teams like Kansas who rarely run a zone, and they now have to face a team that not only plays zone, but plays zone really well. I think Jarod Butler is the difference, as he continues his breakout in Big 12 play as Barry Brown has to focus on Makai Mason. Baylor should be able to get another good win at home.
- Kansas will be headed to TCU in a matchup of two struggling teams. I went through the problems with the Jayhawks earlier, and it looks like the loss of Jaylen Fisher has caught up to the Horned Frogs, losing two of their last three, which each loss coming in a blowout. In the first meeting between these two teams, Kansas won 77-68, although that game was in Phogg Allen, which is one of the best home court advantages in college basketball. I'm very intrigued by this game, and I really don't have a great feel for which way it is going to swing. TCU really doesn't have an answer for Dedric Lawson, which is a recipe for disaster when playing against Kansas. Then again, I don't see why they wouldn't just continually double down on him and force the wings on Kansas to make jump shots, which is by no means a strength of the team. I also kind of like the matchup for TCU's offense, and I don't really think Devon Dotson, Quentin Grimes, and Ochai Agbaji will be able to guard Alex Robinson, Desmond Bane, and Kouat Noi, and Dedric Lawson is actually a pretty bad matchup for Kevin Samuel defensively. I think TCU pulls it out and further buries Kansas' Big 12 title hopes.
- Kansas State heads to Texas to take on the Fighting Matthew McConaugehy's. As with every Kansas State game, it comes down to can their defense make the opposing team worse than their offense? In this case, I think they can. Texas is a team that can struggle on offense, and while they beat the Wildcats by 20 earlier in the season, they faced them without Dean Wade, who makes them an entirely new team. That game also featured Jase Febres going 7-9 from three and scoring 23 points, which I would say is unlikely to happen again. The Longhorns are 3-8 when scoring under 70 points, and I think Kansas State can hold them under that, so I'll say the Wildcats get a nice road victory.
Full Big 12 Schedule 2/7-2/13
2/9
Oklahoma State @ Kansas
TCU @ Iowa State
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma
Kansas State @ Baylor
Texas @ West Virginia
2/11
Kansas @ TCU
Oklahoma @ Baylor
2/12
Kansas State @ Texas
2/13
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State
Tournament Tracker
Locks: N/A
There are still no locks in the field from the Big 12, especially as Kansas continues its struggles. Kansas still might be the closest thanks to their notable big wins, but they have the potential to really struggle as time goes on.
In the Field: Kansas, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas State
I've moved Kansas State up into the field after their victory over Kansas. The Wildcats have some bad losses, but also the best in-conference record at 7-2, and they are an absolutely elite defensive team. So is Texas Tech, who is looking good right now, while Iowa State stands out on the other side of the floor. I'd be pretty shocked if any of these teams missed on out March, but I don't think they are locks just yet.
Bubble: Baylor, Texas, TCU, Oklahoma
Oklahoma is really holding onto the bubble right now. The loss to West Virginia was the first truly bad one of the season, but with just solid victories over other bubble teams on their resume (Wofford, Florida, Creighton, TCU), and a fairly large quantity of losses at this point in time, they will have to avoid losses like that to keep their resume looking good. The other teams should feel pretty good about their spot in the field right now, but that could change very quickly.
Out: Oklahoma State, West Virginia
No changes here, neither one of these teams will be dancing.
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