I'm really excited to be back and doing conference breakdowns after taking last week off due to a busy school load. I still kept an eye on all things college basketball, and I've got a lot of stuff to say from the past two weeks, and I'm excited to share a lot of my thoughts from the past week. On a personal note that fits really well here, I'll be at two massive games at the Carrier Dome this week when Syracuse plays Louisville and then get to see College GameDay on Saturday prior to Syracuse beating Duke, so if you want me to tell Jay Williams something, just let me know. As always, be sure to follow me on Twitter @ThreePointRange where I'll have live coverage of that from the student's section. And without further ado, here's what I saw with the ACC.
Thoughts
- After starting conference play 1-4, Florida State is playing great basketball again. They are now riding a 7 game winning streak, really seizing their opportunities against the weaker portion of their schedule, while also proving their legitimacy with wins over Syracuse on the road and Louisville at home. They have moved themselves firmly into the tournament field after their early season struggles and I certainly wouldn't want to play them come March given their deep collection of talent and athleticism that creates lots of problems for other teams. I got a chance to see them play live in their 80-62 victory over Syracuse and they were really impressive in that game. Now some of that comes from the fact they made 50% of their threes in that game, which is really tough for the Orange given the Seminoles are streaky at best from deep, although they have been better over their winning streak. When they are hitting threes, they are tough to beat, and although I don't have a ton of confidence in them being Villanova last year, they can make open shots. I've been really impressed with sophomore Mfiondu Kabengele recently. He is averaging 16.2 points and 6.1 rebounds over his last 10 contests despite coming off the bench and playing roughly 20 minutes a game. He has the ability to shoot it from three and is very skilled offensively and gives a great change of pace from 7'4" Christ Koumadje on that end of the floor. Terance Mann has also been playing well, as the senior wing has been great for the Noles. Like everyone on this team, he's streaky from three, but he's been getting hot from deep of late, and that makes him really dangerous. He is also a very good rebounder and has pretty good vision, making him one of the best do-it-all players in the nation. This is a very good team that seems to be peaking at the right time, which should be scary for the rest of the ACC and whoever has to play them in the tournament.
- Louisville has been absolutely atrocious in late game situations recently. Over their last three games, they have seemingly been actively attempting to lose games. They held a 7 point lead with 5 minutes left against Florida State, and they then proceeded to not be able to get a stop down the stretch and the Seminoles took them to overtime, where the Cardinals allowed 15 points in those 5 minutes and lost. Then, they infamously blew a 23 point lead in the final 10 minutes of the second half against Duke. I actually turned this game off with the Blue Devils down 20, and only turned it back on after I saw Twitter going crazy, and got to see that Cam Reddish three and watch the Blue Devils complete the comeback, or more accurately, the Cardinals collapse. They beat Clemson despite their best efforts otherwise, and were a Jordan Nwora block away from blowing a 7 point lead with 17 seconds left. This has become a legitimate problem, and it's actually something that I think Chris Mack needs to work on before their upcoming games against Syracuse and Virginia that could come down to the last few possessions.
- As I like to do every time I talk about this school, I need to first say: I attend Syracuse University and I am a fan of the Orange, so I will try to be unbiased when I talk about them. And I think the thing that is the biggest key for Syracuse is the three point line. They are very reliant on being able to make threes, and when a guy like Elijah Hughes gets cold from deep, the Orange find themselves in big trouble. Their best lineup as of late was with Buddy Boeheim on the floor, as he gave them another threat from deep, and it's why for large portions of the season they have looked at their best with Marek Dolezaj at the center. A lot of their offense is heavily reliant on isolation scoring, and a lot of the time that results in a late in the shot clock three either off the catch or with a pull up, and their ability to make them is huge. Just look at their last three games. They lost to Florida State when they shot 25% from deep, beat Boston College making 38.9%, and lost to North Carolina State while only making 20%. They also can have issues defending the arc, as their zone is susceptible to getting lit up, and it has stuck with them through their losses this year. Given how hard it is to penetrate the length of the zone, if you can shoot over the top of it, it gives you a huge advantage. It's why they beat Duke (Blue Devils shot 20.9% from deep in that game) and why they lost games like UConn and Georgia Tech (both shot 50% or better). In their losses, opponents have shot 40.7% from three, compared to the 31.4% their opponents shoot from behind the arc on the whole against them. I would keep this in mind for their matchups in March, as they could face an early exit against a team that can knock down their shots.
- Virginia hasn't been playing like you'd expect Virginia to play recently, and yet it is mostly working. They've been turning the ball over a lot more than I'm used to watching the Cavaliers play, with 10 or more turnovers in five of their last six games, and that is not something we have seen from Tony Bennett's Cavs really ever. However, it's working, only losing one of those games against Duke, and I'm not really sure how that's happening. Well that's not true, it's their incredible defense, but it is still jarring to see their offense playing so sloppily. I think a large reason for that is point guard Kihei Clark. While I think he is a very good basketball player, he isn't a player that should be in the rotation on a national title contending team. I mean, he was committed to UC Davis at one point and now he's playing 25 minutes a game for a top 3 team in the country. I think we saw his limitations really exposed when they played against Duke, when Tre Jones absolutely hounded him and used his 5 inch height advantage to take Clark completely out of the game and he looked unplayable. The team is also at his best when he's not on the floor, with Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy, De'Andre Hunter, Braxton Key, and one of Mamadi Diakite and Jack Salt being the Hoos optimal lineup. I believe that he's a fine backup to Ty Jerome, but he's been playing far too much and I think he's been exposed by ACC competition. Nevertheless, the Cavaliers keep winning and while it hasn't caught up to them yet, it could be something to monitor against top competition.
Power Rankings
1. Duke (1)
Record: 23-2, 11-1
2. Virginia (2)
Record: 23-2, 11-2
3. North Carolina (3)
Record: 20-5, 10-2
4. Virginia Tech (4)
Record: 20-6, 9-5
5. Florida State (8)
Record: 20-5, 8-4
6. Louisville (5)
Record: 18-8, 9-4
7. Syracuse (6)
Record: 17-8, 8-4
8. North Carolina State (7)
Record: 18-8, 6-7
9. Clemson (9)
Record: 15-10, 5-7
10. Boston College (12)
Record: 13-11, 4-8
11. Notre Dame (13)
Record: 13-12, 3-9
12. Pittsburgh (10)
Record: 12-14, 2-11
13. Miami (14)
Record: 11-14, 3-10
14. Georgia Tech (11)
Record: 11-15, 3-10
15. Wake Forest (15)
Record: 9-15, 2-10
What to Watch
- Louisville has to travel to the brutal cold of upstate New York and play Syracuse on Wednesday night. I talked about both of these teams earlier, and as I went through with Cuse, the key will probably be the three point line. We've also seen the Orange struggle against top teams, with one notable exception, and while the Cardinals aren't necessarily an elite team, I don't have them in my latest Top 25, they are certainly a very good team in the ACC and this should be a fascinating matchup. Jordan Nwora will probably be huge, as the sophomore has emerged as a legitimate stud in the ACC and can really shoot it from deep when he's hot. When he isn't we get games like Florida State and Clemson, where he didn't make a single shot from deep. There are also games like against Duke where he goes for 23 points and 12 rebounds and went 5-8 from three. If he can get hot, it really opens up the rest of the offense for the Cardinals, and it could propel them to a victory. However, I'll say that the length of Syracuse bothers him and Tyus Battle comes alive down the stretch, giving the Orange a really nice home victory.
- North Carolina will take on Duke in the next installment of the Tobacco Road rivalry on Wednesday at Cameron Indoor, and it should be a thrilling contest. I've said this multiple times this season, but I think playing Duke at their own game is a recipe for disaster, and both of these teams like to play at fast paces, and I just don't think you want to try and engage Zion and the rest of the Monstars in a track meet. They are such a dynamic team in the open court, and with the Tar Heels playing the sixth fastest pace in the nation, I don't really know if they will be able to beat Duke with that. I think the main thing is Nassir Little's health, as if he is healthy, he allows Roy Williams to go smaller in an attempt to check Zion better, since Luke Maye guarding him seems like a very bad idea. I'm also a little worried about how Coby White will do against Tre Jones, as he really struggled against a similar player in Ashton Hagans back in December. UNC turned the ball over 18 times in that game, and given that Duke has the highest steal percentage in the country, I think their pressure can disrupt the Tar Heels offensive flow and I think the Blue Devils win this game because of all that.
- In case you forgot what happened the last time these two teams met in Louisville, here's a quick reminder. A lot has happened since then, including graduations, a new coach, and a game so monumental, it has its own Wikipedia page. This is the first of two meetings for these two teams, with the second coming in two weeks, and this is a huge chance for Louisville to really impact its seeding in March. Can they pull out a major home upset? Well, it should be a close game. That really has more to do with Virginia, as their slow tempo isn't indicative of blowouts, and all of their last 6 contests have been decided by 10 points or less. That should at least keep the Cardinals in the game, especially given their skill level. However, we have seen how Louisville plays in close games, so that may actually be a bad thing for the Cardinals. On top of that, it's really hard to see an area in which Louisville would hold an advantage over the Hoos. I would be worried about scoring if I was the Cardinals, as Virginia's defense is so damn good, and I was really impressed with their defense Monday night as they held a sharpshooting Virginia Tech team to 3-28 from three. The key matchup in this game comes with Jordan Nwora against De'Andre Hunter. As previously mentioned, Nwora is one of the better scorers in the ACC and he really leads Louisville on that end of the floor, but he will more than likely draw Hunter, who is one of the best defenders in college basketball and he will bring a lot of physicality and length to that matchup. I have seen Louisville struggle to score at times, and I think that will be the case in this one as Virginia wins this one.
- Florida State travels to Chapel Hill to play North Carolina in what should be a very aesthetically pleasing game. Both of these teams like to run and play in a free flowing, open court contest, so it should be fun to watch. I'm going to be really interested to see how Luke Maye plays in this one. Maye isn't known for his athletic ability and against a team like the Seminoles, who have a lot of very long and athletic guys, I think he could struggle. Florida State will typically run four out, and when Maye is sharing the court with Garrison Brooks, he will be forced to guard more of a wing, and that is where he really struggles. I don't expect him to have a good game on either end of the floor, as that length should bother him, and when he's being guarded by 7'4" Christ Koumadje in the post, that could be a problem. I also think the Seminoles can disrupt the offense from UNC, as they are one of the best defenses in the nation at limiting opposing assist numbers, which is a lot of how the Tar Heels get their offense. I still think North Carolina will win this game since they have the superior talent and three point shooting, but I expect it to be a very closely contested matchup.
- Duke has a chance to exorcise some of their demons when they head to the Carrier Dome on Saturday. Just in case you forgot, Syracuse beat Duke at Cameron Indoor earlier this year on the greatest day of my life. Can they do the unthinkable and sweep Duke this season? Absolutely they can. Will it be easy? Of course not, especially with Cam Reddish and Tre Jones healthy for this contest. However, what Syracuse did so well last time was force the Blue Devils into taking a lot of threes, which is the one of Achilles heel of Duke. The zone also does a really good job of slowing teams down, and they have a good opportunity to keep Zion and company out of transition. (Side note, but I've realized I never use Zion's last name. He's already on that first name only basis which is insane because he's younger than me.) Factor in a record crowd, which I will be a part of, which should create an electric atmosphere that is unlike anything Duke has seen before, and that's why I'm picking Syracuse to shock the world and beat Duke again. Am I picking with my heart not my head? Yep, but I reserve the right to do that once a year and I'm doing that now. Go Orange.
Full ACC Schedule 2/19-2/25
2/19
Wake Forest @ Notre Dame
Florida State @ Clemson
2/20
Louisville @ Syracuse
Boston College @ North Carolina State
North Carolina @ Duke
Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech
2/23
Virginia @ Louisville
Boston College @ Clemson
Georgia Tech @ Miami
Florida State @ North Carolina
Virginia Tech @ Notre Dame
Syracuse @ Duke
2/24
Wake Forest @ North Carolina State
2/25
Notre Dame @ Florida State
Tournament Tracker
Locks: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina
I've moved North Carolina up to being a lock. Honestly, I just don't think there are enough games left for them to collapse enough to miss out on March. Even if they lose out from here, they would be 20-11, and with a winning record in conference and wins over Wofford, Gonzaga, North Carolina State twice, Virginia Tech, and Louisville, they would be sitting comfortably in the field with that resume.
In the Field: Louisville, Virginia Tech, Florida State
Florida State is now in the field. I went through their early conference struggles earlier, and that included losses to Pitt and Boston College, which look pretty bad, but with wins over Florida, LSU, Purdue, Syracuse, and Louisville, they are certainly off of the bubble at the moment and should be in very good shape for Selection Sunday.
Bubble: North Carolina State, Syracuse, Clemson
Clemson is barely holding on at the moment. The Tigers have some love from the metrics and are an experienced group that is capable of beating some really good teams, but as of yet, they haven't really done that. Their best wins are against a Justin Robinson-less Virginia Tech, Lipscomb, and South Carolina, which isn't really a murderers row of teams. Luckily, 4 of their last 6 games come at home, including matchups with Florida State, North Carolina, and Syracuse, and the two road trips are against Pittsburgh and Notre Dame, so there are some chances to pick up the wins they need to be in the field on Selection Sunday.
Out: Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, Miami, Notre Dame, Boston College, Wake Forest
Not much to say here really, other than the bottom of the ACC has been pretty disappointing this year. Unfortunately, some programs are in down years (Miami, Notre Dame), some are in the midst of a rebuild (Pittsburgh), and some need a major overhaul (Wake Forest). I had hope that one or two of these teams could be on the bubble, but unfortunately, it wasn't to be.
Thoughts
- After starting conference play 1-4, Florida State is playing great basketball again. They are now riding a 7 game winning streak, really seizing their opportunities against the weaker portion of their schedule, while also proving their legitimacy with wins over Syracuse on the road and Louisville at home. They have moved themselves firmly into the tournament field after their early season struggles and I certainly wouldn't want to play them come March given their deep collection of talent and athleticism that creates lots of problems for other teams. I got a chance to see them play live in their 80-62 victory over Syracuse and they were really impressive in that game. Now some of that comes from the fact they made 50% of their threes in that game, which is really tough for the Orange given the Seminoles are streaky at best from deep, although they have been better over their winning streak. When they are hitting threes, they are tough to beat, and although I don't have a ton of confidence in them being Villanova last year, they can make open shots. I've been really impressed with sophomore Mfiondu Kabengele recently. He is averaging 16.2 points and 6.1 rebounds over his last 10 contests despite coming off the bench and playing roughly 20 minutes a game. He has the ability to shoot it from three and is very skilled offensively and gives a great change of pace from 7'4" Christ Koumadje on that end of the floor. Terance Mann has also been playing well, as the senior wing has been great for the Noles. Like everyone on this team, he's streaky from three, but he's been getting hot from deep of late, and that makes him really dangerous. He is also a very good rebounder and has pretty good vision, making him one of the best do-it-all players in the nation. This is a very good team that seems to be peaking at the right time, which should be scary for the rest of the ACC and whoever has to play them in the tournament.
- Louisville has been absolutely atrocious in late game situations recently. Over their last three games, they have seemingly been actively attempting to lose games. They held a 7 point lead with 5 minutes left against Florida State, and they then proceeded to not be able to get a stop down the stretch and the Seminoles took them to overtime, where the Cardinals allowed 15 points in those 5 minutes and lost. Then, they infamously blew a 23 point lead in the final 10 minutes of the second half against Duke. I actually turned this game off with the Blue Devils down 20, and only turned it back on after I saw Twitter going crazy, and got to see that Cam Reddish three and watch the Blue Devils complete the comeback, or more accurately, the Cardinals collapse. They beat Clemson despite their best efforts otherwise, and were a Jordan Nwora block away from blowing a 7 point lead with 17 seconds left. This has become a legitimate problem, and it's actually something that I think Chris Mack needs to work on before their upcoming games against Syracuse and Virginia that could come down to the last few possessions.
- As I like to do every time I talk about this school, I need to first say: I attend Syracuse University and I am a fan of the Orange, so I will try to be unbiased when I talk about them. And I think the thing that is the biggest key for Syracuse is the three point line. They are very reliant on being able to make threes, and when a guy like Elijah Hughes gets cold from deep, the Orange find themselves in big trouble. Their best lineup as of late was with Buddy Boeheim on the floor, as he gave them another threat from deep, and it's why for large portions of the season they have looked at their best with Marek Dolezaj at the center. A lot of their offense is heavily reliant on isolation scoring, and a lot of the time that results in a late in the shot clock three either off the catch or with a pull up, and their ability to make them is huge. Just look at their last three games. They lost to Florida State when they shot 25% from deep, beat Boston College making 38.9%, and lost to North Carolina State while only making 20%. They also can have issues defending the arc, as their zone is susceptible to getting lit up, and it has stuck with them through their losses this year. Given how hard it is to penetrate the length of the zone, if you can shoot over the top of it, it gives you a huge advantage. It's why they beat Duke (Blue Devils shot 20.9% from deep in that game) and why they lost games like UConn and Georgia Tech (both shot 50% or better). In their losses, opponents have shot 40.7% from three, compared to the 31.4% their opponents shoot from behind the arc on the whole against them. I would keep this in mind for their matchups in March, as they could face an early exit against a team that can knock down their shots.
- Virginia hasn't been playing like you'd expect Virginia to play recently, and yet it is mostly working. They've been turning the ball over a lot more than I'm used to watching the Cavaliers play, with 10 or more turnovers in five of their last six games, and that is not something we have seen from Tony Bennett's Cavs really ever. However, it's working, only losing one of those games against Duke, and I'm not really sure how that's happening. Well that's not true, it's their incredible defense, but it is still jarring to see their offense playing so sloppily. I think a large reason for that is point guard Kihei Clark. While I think he is a very good basketball player, he isn't a player that should be in the rotation on a national title contending team. I mean, he was committed to UC Davis at one point and now he's playing 25 minutes a game for a top 3 team in the country. I think we saw his limitations really exposed when they played against Duke, when Tre Jones absolutely hounded him and used his 5 inch height advantage to take Clark completely out of the game and he looked unplayable. The team is also at his best when he's not on the floor, with Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy, De'Andre Hunter, Braxton Key, and one of Mamadi Diakite and Jack Salt being the Hoos optimal lineup. I believe that he's a fine backup to Ty Jerome, but he's been playing far too much and I think he's been exposed by ACC competition. Nevertheless, the Cavaliers keep winning and while it hasn't caught up to them yet, it could be something to monitor against top competition.
Power Rankings
1. Duke (1)
Record: 23-2, 11-1
2. Virginia (2)
Record: 23-2, 11-2
3. North Carolina (3)
Record: 20-5, 10-2
4. Virginia Tech (4)
Record: 20-6, 9-5
5. Florida State (8)
Record: 20-5, 8-4
6. Louisville (5)
Record: 18-8, 9-4
7. Syracuse (6)
Record: 17-8, 8-4
8. North Carolina State (7)
Record: 18-8, 6-7
9. Clemson (9)
Record: 15-10, 5-7
10. Boston College (12)
Record: 13-11, 4-8
11. Notre Dame (13)
Record: 13-12, 3-9
12. Pittsburgh (10)
Record: 12-14, 2-11
13. Miami (14)
Record: 11-14, 3-10
14. Georgia Tech (11)
Record: 11-15, 3-10
15. Wake Forest (15)
Record: 9-15, 2-10
What to Watch
- Louisville has to travel to the brutal cold of upstate New York and play Syracuse on Wednesday night. I talked about both of these teams earlier, and as I went through with Cuse, the key will probably be the three point line. We've also seen the Orange struggle against top teams, with one notable exception, and while the Cardinals aren't necessarily an elite team, I don't have them in my latest Top 25, they are certainly a very good team in the ACC and this should be a fascinating matchup. Jordan Nwora will probably be huge, as the sophomore has emerged as a legitimate stud in the ACC and can really shoot it from deep when he's hot. When he isn't we get games like Florida State and Clemson, where he didn't make a single shot from deep. There are also games like against Duke where he goes for 23 points and 12 rebounds and went 5-8 from three. If he can get hot, it really opens up the rest of the offense for the Cardinals, and it could propel them to a victory. However, I'll say that the length of Syracuse bothers him and Tyus Battle comes alive down the stretch, giving the Orange a really nice home victory.
- North Carolina will take on Duke in the next installment of the Tobacco Road rivalry on Wednesday at Cameron Indoor, and it should be a thrilling contest. I've said this multiple times this season, but I think playing Duke at their own game is a recipe for disaster, and both of these teams like to play at fast paces, and I just don't think you want to try and engage Zion and the rest of the Monstars in a track meet. They are such a dynamic team in the open court, and with the Tar Heels playing the sixth fastest pace in the nation, I don't really know if they will be able to beat Duke with that. I think the main thing is Nassir Little's health, as if he is healthy, he allows Roy Williams to go smaller in an attempt to check Zion better, since Luke Maye guarding him seems like a very bad idea. I'm also a little worried about how Coby White will do against Tre Jones, as he really struggled against a similar player in Ashton Hagans back in December. UNC turned the ball over 18 times in that game, and given that Duke has the highest steal percentage in the country, I think their pressure can disrupt the Tar Heels offensive flow and I think the Blue Devils win this game because of all that.
- In case you forgot what happened the last time these two teams met in Louisville, here's a quick reminder. A lot has happened since then, including graduations, a new coach, and a game so monumental, it has its own Wikipedia page. This is the first of two meetings for these two teams, with the second coming in two weeks, and this is a huge chance for Louisville to really impact its seeding in March. Can they pull out a major home upset? Well, it should be a close game. That really has more to do with Virginia, as their slow tempo isn't indicative of blowouts, and all of their last 6 contests have been decided by 10 points or less. That should at least keep the Cardinals in the game, especially given their skill level. However, we have seen how Louisville plays in close games, so that may actually be a bad thing for the Cardinals. On top of that, it's really hard to see an area in which Louisville would hold an advantage over the Hoos. I would be worried about scoring if I was the Cardinals, as Virginia's defense is so damn good, and I was really impressed with their defense Monday night as they held a sharpshooting Virginia Tech team to 3-28 from three. The key matchup in this game comes with Jordan Nwora against De'Andre Hunter. As previously mentioned, Nwora is one of the better scorers in the ACC and he really leads Louisville on that end of the floor, but he will more than likely draw Hunter, who is one of the best defenders in college basketball and he will bring a lot of physicality and length to that matchup. I have seen Louisville struggle to score at times, and I think that will be the case in this one as Virginia wins this one.
- Florida State travels to Chapel Hill to play North Carolina in what should be a very aesthetically pleasing game. Both of these teams like to run and play in a free flowing, open court contest, so it should be fun to watch. I'm going to be really interested to see how Luke Maye plays in this one. Maye isn't known for his athletic ability and against a team like the Seminoles, who have a lot of very long and athletic guys, I think he could struggle. Florida State will typically run four out, and when Maye is sharing the court with Garrison Brooks, he will be forced to guard more of a wing, and that is where he really struggles. I don't expect him to have a good game on either end of the floor, as that length should bother him, and when he's being guarded by 7'4" Christ Koumadje in the post, that could be a problem. I also think the Seminoles can disrupt the offense from UNC, as they are one of the best defenses in the nation at limiting opposing assist numbers, which is a lot of how the Tar Heels get their offense. I still think North Carolina will win this game since they have the superior talent and three point shooting, but I expect it to be a very closely contested matchup.
- Duke has a chance to exorcise some of their demons when they head to the Carrier Dome on Saturday. Just in case you forgot, Syracuse beat Duke at Cameron Indoor earlier this year on the greatest day of my life. Can they do the unthinkable and sweep Duke this season? Absolutely they can. Will it be easy? Of course not, especially with Cam Reddish and Tre Jones healthy for this contest. However, what Syracuse did so well last time was force the Blue Devils into taking a lot of threes, which is the one of Achilles heel of Duke. The zone also does a really good job of slowing teams down, and they have a good opportunity to keep Zion and company out of transition. (Side note, but I've realized I never use Zion's last name. He's already on that first name only basis which is insane because he's younger than me.) Factor in a record crowd, which I will be a part of, which should create an electric atmosphere that is unlike anything Duke has seen before, and that's why I'm picking Syracuse to shock the world and beat Duke again. Am I picking with my heart not my head? Yep, but I reserve the right to do that once a year and I'm doing that now. Go Orange.
Full ACC Schedule 2/19-2/25
2/19
Wake Forest @ Notre Dame
Florida State @ Clemson
2/20
Louisville @ Syracuse
Boston College @ North Carolina State
North Carolina @ Duke
Pittsburgh @ Georgia Tech
2/23
Virginia @ Louisville
Boston College @ Clemson
Georgia Tech @ Miami
Florida State @ North Carolina
Virginia Tech @ Notre Dame
Syracuse @ Duke
2/24
Wake Forest @ North Carolina State
2/25
Notre Dame @ Florida State
Tournament Tracker
Locks: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina
I've moved North Carolina up to being a lock. Honestly, I just don't think there are enough games left for them to collapse enough to miss out on March. Even if they lose out from here, they would be 20-11, and with a winning record in conference and wins over Wofford, Gonzaga, North Carolina State twice, Virginia Tech, and Louisville, they would be sitting comfortably in the field with that resume.
In the Field: Louisville, Virginia Tech, Florida State
Florida State is now in the field. I went through their early conference struggles earlier, and that included losses to Pitt and Boston College, which look pretty bad, but with wins over Florida, LSU, Purdue, Syracuse, and Louisville, they are certainly off of the bubble at the moment and should be in very good shape for Selection Sunday.
Bubble: North Carolina State, Syracuse, Clemson
Clemson is barely holding on at the moment. The Tigers have some love from the metrics and are an experienced group that is capable of beating some really good teams, but as of yet, they haven't really done that. Their best wins are against a Justin Robinson-less Virginia Tech, Lipscomb, and South Carolina, which isn't really a murderers row of teams. Luckily, 4 of their last 6 games come at home, including matchups with Florida State, North Carolina, and Syracuse, and the two road trips are against Pittsburgh and Notre Dame, so there are some chances to pick up the wins they need to be in the field on Selection Sunday.
Out: Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, Miami, Notre Dame, Boston College, Wake Forest
Not much to say here really, other than the bottom of the ACC has been pretty disappointing this year. Unfortunately, some programs are in down years (Miami, Notre Dame), some are in the midst of a rebuild (Pittsburgh), and some need a major overhaul (Wake Forest). I had hope that one or two of these teams could be on the bubble, but unfortunately, it wasn't to be.
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