The ACC regular season is winding down, but there are still plenty of storylines to track. Zion Williamson and Justin Robinson have pretty significant injuries, North Carolina and Florida State are hot, there are a few teams still playing for their tournament lives, and Louisville looks like a completely different team right now. I have the full breakdown of the conference now and next week, and I'm going to try and get a conference tournament preview out as well. Be sure to check back next week and follow me on Twitter @ThreePointRange for updates on the ACC as March continues to approach.
Thoughts
- The big story from the ACC this past week was Zion Williamson's injury. I'm basically a week late, but here's my take: it's bad for Duke. I know, it's a hot take, but losing the National Player of the Year frontrunner will hurt your on court product. There have been a lot of people chiming in on whether or not he should play the rest of the season. I think he should do whatever he wants, and from what I have seen of him, I believe he wants to play again for Duke. If he wants to do that, then he absolutely should. If he wants to sit out for the NBA Draft because he's going to be the number 1 pick and doesn't want to pick up a more serious injury, then he should do that. Either way, he should make his own decision. No one, not Coach K, not Jay Bilas, not Trae Young, and certainly not I, should influence his decision in any way, and he should make a choice on his own.
- Lost in the Zion story was the fact that North Carolina dominated Duke in that rivalry game at Cameron Indoor. Multiple North Carolina players have spoken up about the fact that they won the biggest rivalry in college basketball by 16 points and all anyone has been talking about is the fact that Zion busted through his shoe. And they are absolutely right in my opinion. The Tar Heels' success this year has often taken a backseat to the Nassir Little talk, and I have fallen into that, but this week really made me fully buy into the Tar Heels. I still had those Kentucky, Louisville, and Virginia games at the front of my mind, all losses, and but they are tied atop the ACC and beat Duke on the road and blew out Florida State in a game many expected to be close. Cameron Johnson has been incredible this year, Luke Maye has come on strong recently, Coby White is playing his way into possibly being one and done, and Kenny Williams continues to be rock solid. They still have tests against Syracuse, Clemson, and a rematch with Duke to come, but this is a team that is going to make a lot of noise in March.
- Time for your weekly dose of Syracuse coverage. I was really impressed with their performances this week, especially in their dominating win over Louisville. I've said all year that when Syracuse is making their threes, they will be hard to beat, and that happened here, draining 11 shots from deep. It was also a quintessential performance from their zone, forcing 13 turnovers and keeping the Cardinals out of their rhythm offensively, especially Jordan Nwora, who couldn't get anything going consistently. The Orange also put in a very good performance against Duke, only to come up short because of a crazy Alex O' Connell performance, as he went for a career high 20 and is now my least favorite player in college basketball. Even though they lost by 10, Syracuse really competed with Duke and it never felt as if they were outclassed. Sure, RJ Barrett was easily the best player on the court and popped off for 30 points, but I thought Syracuse was in this game up until a late Duke run. Now, I'm sure I got partially sucked up in the wild environment at the Carrier Dome with a record breaking crowd, but it was a game that showed me the Orange can compete with absolutely anyone. I should also mention the huge Jim Boeheim news, as he hit and killed Jorge Jimenez in a car accident after the Louisville game. I don't want to speculate on what happened, but it truly seems like an accident and I cannot express my condolences to his family enough. It will be a dark cloud over this Syracuse season, and it is a tremendous tragedy.
- The Virginia victory over Louisville was eye opening for me. We all know that Virginia is a really good team, and they have one of the best collections of talent in the country. However, they have largely been reliant on shooting the ball from three given their lack of a go-to scorer in the front court. And yet, in a game in which they made two total threes, they managed to win by 12 despite trailing by 10 at the half. Neither Kyle Guy nor Ty Jerome made a three, and yet they got huge contributions from the front court to power their victory. Mamadi Diakite and Jay Huff had a combined 26 points and 12 rebounds, and DeAndre Hunter took over in the second half, scoring 19 of his 26 points after the break, including both of Virginia's threes. The fact that the Hood gave up 37 points in a half and couldn't buy a shot from behind the arc, and still won by double digits should be reason enough for coaches to want to avoid Virginia at all costs on their side of the bracket.
Power Rankings
1. Virginia (2)
Record: 24-2, 12-2
2. Duke (1)
Record: 24-3, 12-2
3. North Carolina (3)
Record: 22-5, 12-2
4. Florida State (5)
Record: 22-6, 10-5
5. Virginia Tech (4)
Record: 21-6, 10-5
6. Louisville (6)
Record: 18-8, 9-4
7. Syracuse (7)
Record: 18-9, 9-5
8. North Carolina State (8)
Record: 20-8, 8-7
9. Clemson (9)
Record: 16-11, 6-8
10. Boston College (10)
Record: 13-13, 4-10
11. Miami (13)
Record: 12-14, 4-10
12. Georgia Tech (14)
Record: 12-16, 4-11
13. Notre Dame (11)
Record: 13-15, 3-12
14. Pittsburgh (12)
Record: 12-15, 2-12
15. Wake Forest (15)
Record: 10-16, 3-11
What to Watch
- Duke travels to Blacksburg to take on Virginia Tech, and the story of this game is injuries. Both teams are missing their most important players, with Zion Williamson out for Duke and Justin Robinson sitting out for the Hokies. For the Blue Devils, this is obviously bad, but at the same time, they have elite talent like RJ Barrett, so the loss doesn't sting as badly as Robinson for Virginia Tech. Ever since he went down with a foot injury in late January against Miami, this team hasn't been the same, as they lack their main playmaking force who also doubles as a knockdown shooter. The ball just doesn't seem to move as well without him on the court, which is to be expected when your school's all-time assist leader is out, and they also have PJ Horne slowed by an injury of his own and some other players who were expected to be key contributors this season in Chris Clarke and Landers Nolly, so their depth is now non-existent. I think the Blue Devils will be able to win this one handily given their talent advantage even without Zion.
- Syracuse will be taking on North Carolina in Chapel Hill in a very intriguing contest in my opinion. These are the only two teams to beat Duke in ACC play and it features two of the best coaches in NCAA history. I will be very interested to see how this North Carolina team plays against the 2-3 zone, especially given that their point guard, Coby White, is a freshmen who can is prone to bad decisions and is more of a scorer than facilitator. I think that the Tar Heels prevail in this one for a few reasons. For one, the Tar Heels should hold a pretty profound rebounding advantage. The Orange have been susceptible against good rebounding teams, especially on the offensive glass. In their last contest, Duke got 14 offensive boards, and North Carolina has been one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation, getting 12.8 a game this season thanks to consistently playing lineups with a lot of size. They also have the shooting ability to beat the zone, with Cameron Johnson shooting 47.1% from behind the arc, 21st in the nation, and Luke Maye, Coby White, and Kenny Williams all have ability to shoot it from deep well. Finally, I think North Carolina can control the pace of this game, playing at a much quicker tempo which allows their players to thrive. They can run their patented Carolina Break, and guys like White, Johnson, and Nassir Little all thrive in the open court. The Orange should hang around, but expect North Carolina to be in control the entire way.
- North Carolina State has a weird resume, with a win over an Auburn team that is getting worse by the day acting as a marquee win and victories over Syracuse and Clemson at home being the only other wins of note. They have an opportunity to get a really nice win at Florida State this week, but it will be a tough test. The Seminoles have been red hot, winning 9 of their last 10, and both of these teams are very similar. They like to play up tempo, have lots of depth, and have a distinct style that works well for them. I think the Seminoles have the advantage here, although it should be close. The Wolfpack should be able to force a lot of turnovers, given their pressing style has them getting steals at a high rate and the Noles have some issues handling the ball. However, I like to subscribe to the belief that when two similar teams play, the one with more talent will win, and I think that is Florida State. Their defense should also be able to hold the Wolfpack offense which has been inconsistent this year, so I think Florida State prevails at home.
- As I'll get into in the Tournament Tracker, Clemson has a chance to play their way into the tournament down the strecth. They have a massive opportunity this weekend when they host North Carolina with a chance at a quality win. It will be tough, given the quality of the Tar Heels, but the Tigers have some things going for them. For one, their defense is very good, and has a real chance at stopping North Carolina. They have the second best adjusted defensive efficiency in ACC play, and opponents have struggled to score against them, especially from inside the arc, where teams shoot just 44.4%. They also do a good job of limiting teams on the glass, which could give them an advantage, as does their slow pace that could stop the Tar Heels in transition. However, Clemson has been pretty tough to watch offensively and I wonder if anyone other than Marcquise Reed will have success against a pretty stout Carolina D. Clemson will have to do their resume work elsewhere as I think North Carolina wins pretty easily.
- Virginia has to travel to the Carrier Dome for Big Monday in what could be a tough test for the Hoos. As mentioned earlier, the Orange are playing good basketball right now and they should have another huge crowd on hand for on of the nation's best teams. The slower pace should allow Syracuse to stick in the game all night, although the Virginia defense should give their offense fits. The Orange have been at their best when they can get to the rim consistently, which is something Virginia's scheme is specifically designed to prevent, so that aspect isn't ideal for the Orange. However, I do think Kihei Clark will be nearly unplayable, as his diminutive stature will make it hard for him to play against the size of Syracuse's guards on both ends of the court. Still, Virginia's pack line scheme and their knockdown three point shooting should be enough of a difference to prevail in Syracuse.
Full ACC Schedule 2/26-3/4
2/26
Duke @ Virginia Tech
Miami @ Wake Forest
Syracuse @ North Carolina
2/27
Georgia Tech @ Virginia
Clemson @ Pittsburgh
Louisville @ Boston College
3/2
North Carolina State @ Florida State
Syracuse @ Wake Forest
Pittsburgh @ Virginia
Miami @ Duke
North Carolina @ Clemson
3/3
Notre Dame @ Louisville
Boston College @ Georgia Tech
3/4
Boston College @ Georgia Tech
Tournament Tracker
Locks: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina
All three of these teams should be staring at a 1 or 2 seed, so they have absolutely nothing to worry about barring a total collapse down the stretch, but that would only impact seeding.
In the Field: Louisville, Virginia Tech, Florida State
All three of these teams look safer and safer as they continue to handle business against the ACC bottom feeders. A win over any of the top 8 teams would make them locks, so look for Virginia Tech (vs Duke) and Florida State (vs North Carolina State) to try and elevate themselves into the Lock section for next week.
Bubble: North Carolina State, Syracuse, Clemson
I wanted to take a look at these teams remaining schedules and what they need to do down the stretch to feel good on Selection Sunday. As I mentioned earlier, the Wolfpack's resume is pretty light, and their game against Florida State is their last chance to pick up a marquee win before the ACC Tournament. If they lose there, they will need to win their last two games and hope to knock someone off in the tournament. Even then, they should be OK, so as long as they go 2-0 against Georgia Tech and Boston College, they should be alright. Syracuse has the toughest schedule down the stretch, playing at North Carolina, Wake Forest, and Clemson, while hosting Virginia. I think 2-2 should be good, as long as they beat Wake, but I think they should also feel pretty safely off the bubble as long as they take care of business against their weaker opposition. Clemson is really the bubbliest team, and it's easy to see why. Their resume is based around having no bad losses, although the Virginia Tech win is really nice. Still, they can't afford losses to Pittsburgh or Notre Dame, both game are on the road, and to feel really safe, they probably need to take down North Carolina or Syracuse, or find a big win in the ACC Tournament. They will probably be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.
Out: Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, Miami, Notre Dame, Boston College, Wake Forest
Thoughts
- The big story from the ACC this past week was Zion Williamson's injury. I'm basically a week late, but here's my take: it's bad for Duke. I know, it's a hot take, but losing the National Player of the Year frontrunner will hurt your on court product. There have been a lot of people chiming in on whether or not he should play the rest of the season. I think he should do whatever he wants, and from what I have seen of him, I believe he wants to play again for Duke. If he wants to do that, then he absolutely should. If he wants to sit out for the NBA Draft because he's going to be the number 1 pick and doesn't want to pick up a more serious injury, then he should do that. Either way, he should make his own decision. No one, not Coach K, not Jay Bilas, not Trae Young, and certainly not I, should influence his decision in any way, and he should make a choice on his own.
- Lost in the Zion story was the fact that North Carolina dominated Duke in that rivalry game at Cameron Indoor. Multiple North Carolina players have spoken up about the fact that they won the biggest rivalry in college basketball by 16 points and all anyone has been talking about is the fact that Zion busted through his shoe. And they are absolutely right in my opinion. The Tar Heels' success this year has often taken a backseat to the Nassir Little talk, and I have fallen into that, but this week really made me fully buy into the Tar Heels. I still had those Kentucky, Louisville, and Virginia games at the front of my mind, all losses, and but they are tied atop the ACC and beat Duke on the road and blew out Florida State in a game many expected to be close. Cameron Johnson has been incredible this year, Luke Maye has come on strong recently, Coby White is playing his way into possibly being one and done, and Kenny Williams continues to be rock solid. They still have tests against Syracuse, Clemson, and a rematch with Duke to come, but this is a team that is going to make a lot of noise in March.
- Time for your weekly dose of Syracuse coverage. I was really impressed with their performances this week, especially in their dominating win over Louisville. I've said all year that when Syracuse is making their threes, they will be hard to beat, and that happened here, draining 11 shots from deep. It was also a quintessential performance from their zone, forcing 13 turnovers and keeping the Cardinals out of their rhythm offensively, especially Jordan Nwora, who couldn't get anything going consistently. The Orange also put in a very good performance against Duke, only to come up short because of a crazy Alex O' Connell performance, as he went for a career high 20 and is now my least favorite player in college basketball. Even though they lost by 10, Syracuse really competed with Duke and it never felt as if they were outclassed. Sure, RJ Barrett was easily the best player on the court and popped off for 30 points, but I thought Syracuse was in this game up until a late Duke run. Now, I'm sure I got partially sucked up in the wild environment at the Carrier Dome with a record breaking crowd, but it was a game that showed me the Orange can compete with absolutely anyone. I should also mention the huge Jim Boeheim news, as he hit and killed Jorge Jimenez in a car accident after the Louisville game. I don't want to speculate on what happened, but it truly seems like an accident and I cannot express my condolences to his family enough. It will be a dark cloud over this Syracuse season, and it is a tremendous tragedy.
- The Virginia victory over Louisville was eye opening for me. We all know that Virginia is a really good team, and they have one of the best collections of talent in the country. However, they have largely been reliant on shooting the ball from three given their lack of a go-to scorer in the front court. And yet, in a game in which they made two total threes, they managed to win by 12 despite trailing by 10 at the half. Neither Kyle Guy nor Ty Jerome made a three, and yet they got huge contributions from the front court to power their victory. Mamadi Diakite and Jay Huff had a combined 26 points and 12 rebounds, and DeAndre Hunter took over in the second half, scoring 19 of his 26 points after the break, including both of Virginia's threes. The fact that the Hood gave up 37 points in a half and couldn't buy a shot from behind the arc, and still won by double digits should be reason enough for coaches to want to avoid Virginia at all costs on their side of the bracket.
Power Rankings
1. Virginia (2)
Record: 24-2, 12-2
2. Duke (1)
Record: 24-3, 12-2
3. North Carolina (3)
Record: 22-5, 12-2
4. Florida State (5)
Record: 22-6, 10-5
5. Virginia Tech (4)
Record: 21-6, 10-5
6. Louisville (6)
Record: 18-8, 9-4
7. Syracuse (7)
Record: 18-9, 9-5
8. North Carolina State (8)
Record: 20-8, 8-7
9. Clemson (9)
Record: 16-11, 6-8
10. Boston College (10)
Record: 13-13, 4-10
11. Miami (13)
Record: 12-14, 4-10
12. Georgia Tech (14)
Record: 12-16, 4-11
13. Notre Dame (11)
Record: 13-15, 3-12
14. Pittsburgh (12)
Record: 12-15, 2-12
15. Wake Forest (15)
Record: 10-16, 3-11
What to Watch
- Duke travels to Blacksburg to take on Virginia Tech, and the story of this game is injuries. Both teams are missing their most important players, with Zion Williamson out for Duke and Justin Robinson sitting out for the Hokies. For the Blue Devils, this is obviously bad, but at the same time, they have elite talent like RJ Barrett, so the loss doesn't sting as badly as Robinson for Virginia Tech. Ever since he went down with a foot injury in late January against Miami, this team hasn't been the same, as they lack their main playmaking force who also doubles as a knockdown shooter. The ball just doesn't seem to move as well without him on the court, which is to be expected when your school's all-time assist leader is out, and they also have PJ Horne slowed by an injury of his own and some other players who were expected to be key contributors this season in Chris Clarke and Landers Nolly, so their depth is now non-existent. I think the Blue Devils will be able to win this one handily given their talent advantage even without Zion.
- Syracuse will be taking on North Carolina in Chapel Hill in a very intriguing contest in my opinion. These are the only two teams to beat Duke in ACC play and it features two of the best coaches in NCAA history. I will be very interested to see how this North Carolina team plays against the 2-3 zone, especially given that their point guard, Coby White, is a freshmen who can is prone to bad decisions and is more of a scorer than facilitator. I think that the Tar Heels prevail in this one for a few reasons. For one, the Tar Heels should hold a pretty profound rebounding advantage. The Orange have been susceptible against good rebounding teams, especially on the offensive glass. In their last contest, Duke got 14 offensive boards, and North Carolina has been one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation, getting 12.8 a game this season thanks to consistently playing lineups with a lot of size. They also have the shooting ability to beat the zone, with Cameron Johnson shooting 47.1% from behind the arc, 21st in the nation, and Luke Maye, Coby White, and Kenny Williams all have ability to shoot it from deep well. Finally, I think North Carolina can control the pace of this game, playing at a much quicker tempo which allows their players to thrive. They can run their patented Carolina Break, and guys like White, Johnson, and Nassir Little all thrive in the open court. The Orange should hang around, but expect North Carolina to be in control the entire way.
- North Carolina State has a weird resume, with a win over an Auburn team that is getting worse by the day acting as a marquee win and victories over Syracuse and Clemson at home being the only other wins of note. They have an opportunity to get a really nice win at Florida State this week, but it will be a tough test. The Seminoles have been red hot, winning 9 of their last 10, and both of these teams are very similar. They like to play up tempo, have lots of depth, and have a distinct style that works well for them. I think the Seminoles have the advantage here, although it should be close. The Wolfpack should be able to force a lot of turnovers, given their pressing style has them getting steals at a high rate and the Noles have some issues handling the ball. However, I like to subscribe to the belief that when two similar teams play, the one with more talent will win, and I think that is Florida State. Their defense should also be able to hold the Wolfpack offense which has been inconsistent this year, so I think Florida State prevails at home.
- As I'll get into in the Tournament Tracker, Clemson has a chance to play their way into the tournament down the strecth. They have a massive opportunity this weekend when they host North Carolina with a chance at a quality win. It will be tough, given the quality of the Tar Heels, but the Tigers have some things going for them. For one, their defense is very good, and has a real chance at stopping North Carolina. They have the second best adjusted defensive efficiency in ACC play, and opponents have struggled to score against them, especially from inside the arc, where teams shoot just 44.4%. They also do a good job of limiting teams on the glass, which could give them an advantage, as does their slow pace that could stop the Tar Heels in transition. However, Clemson has been pretty tough to watch offensively and I wonder if anyone other than Marcquise Reed will have success against a pretty stout Carolina D. Clemson will have to do their resume work elsewhere as I think North Carolina wins pretty easily.
- Virginia has to travel to the Carrier Dome for Big Monday in what could be a tough test for the Hoos. As mentioned earlier, the Orange are playing good basketball right now and they should have another huge crowd on hand for on of the nation's best teams. The slower pace should allow Syracuse to stick in the game all night, although the Virginia defense should give their offense fits. The Orange have been at their best when they can get to the rim consistently, which is something Virginia's scheme is specifically designed to prevent, so that aspect isn't ideal for the Orange. However, I do think Kihei Clark will be nearly unplayable, as his diminutive stature will make it hard for him to play against the size of Syracuse's guards on both ends of the court. Still, Virginia's pack line scheme and their knockdown three point shooting should be enough of a difference to prevail in Syracuse.
Full ACC Schedule 2/26-3/4
2/26
Duke @ Virginia Tech
Miami @ Wake Forest
Syracuse @ North Carolina
2/27
Georgia Tech @ Virginia
Clemson @ Pittsburgh
Louisville @ Boston College
3/2
North Carolina State @ Florida State
Syracuse @ Wake Forest
Pittsburgh @ Virginia
Miami @ Duke
North Carolina @ Clemson
3/3
Notre Dame @ Louisville
Boston College @ Georgia Tech
3/4
Boston College @ Georgia Tech
Tournament Tracker
Locks: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina
All three of these teams should be staring at a 1 or 2 seed, so they have absolutely nothing to worry about barring a total collapse down the stretch, but that would only impact seeding.
In the Field: Louisville, Virginia Tech, Florida State
All three of these teams look safer and safer as they continue to handle business against the ACC bottom feeders. A win over any of the top 8 teams would make them locks, so look for Virginia Tech (vs Duke) and Florida State (vs North Carolina State) to try and elevate themselves into the Lock section for next week.
Bubble: North Carolina State, Syracuse, Clemson
I wanted to take a look at these teams remaining schedules and what they need to do down the stretch to feel good on Selection Sunday. As I mentioned earlier, the Wolfpack's resume is pretty light, and their game against Florida State is their last chance to pick up a marquee win before the ACC Tournament. If they lose there, they will need to win their last two games and hope to knock someone off in the tournament. Even then, they should be OK, so as long as they go 2-0 against Georgia Tech and Boston College, they should be alright. Syracuse has the toughest schedule down the stretch, playing at North Carolina, Wake Forest, and Clemson, while hosting Virginia. I think 2-2 should be good, as long as they beat Wake, but I think they should also feel pretty safely off the bubble as long as they take care of business against their weaker opposition. Clemson is really the bubbliest team, and it's easy to see why. Their resume is based around having no bad losses, although the Virginia Tech win is really nice. Still, they can't afford losses to Pittsburgh or Notre Dame, both game are on the road, and to feel really safe, they probably need to take down North Carolina or Syracuse, or find a big win in the ACC Tournament. They will probably be sweating it out on Selection Sunday.
Out: Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, Miami, Notre Dame, Boston College, Wake Forest
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