Top 25 Breakdown 2/4/19

The AP Poll has been constantly criticized, and Gary Parrish does a fun series where he exposes some of the crazy inconsistencies from voters. Luckily, you have my rankings to help you out. These are finely curated, with deep consideration for each pick and hours of watching games to figure out which team is better than another. In all seriousness, this is something I enjoy to do and I think they are pretty good rankings. I talk about all things college basketball on Twitter @ThreePointRange, so be sure to follow me there, and let me know all of your takes on the Top 25.

Top 25
1. Tennessee (1)
Record: 20-1, 8-0
Last Week: W 92-70 @ South Carolina, W 93-76 @ Texas A&M
This Week: 2/5 vs Missouri, 2/9 vs Florida

2. Duke (2)
Record:19-2, 7-1
Last Week: W 83-61 @ Notre Dame, W 91-61 vs St. John's
This Week: 2/5 vs Boston College, 2/9 @ Virginia

3. Virginia (3)
Record: 20-1, 8-1
Last Week: W 66-65 (OT) @ North Carolina State, W 56-46 vs Miami
This Week: 2/9 vs Duke

4. Gonzaga (5)
Record: 19-2, 6-0
Last Week: W 93-63 @ BYU, W 85-69 vs San Diego
This Week: 2/7 vs San Francisco, 2/9 vs St. Mary's

5. Kentucky (7)
Record: 18-3, 8-1
Last Week: W 87-52 @ Vanderbilt, W 65-54 @ Florida
This Week: 2/5 vs South Carolina, 2/9 @ Mississippi State

6. Michigan State (4)
Record: 18-4, 9-2
Last Week:  L 79-75 (OT) vs Indiana
This Week: 2/5 @ Illinois, 2/9 vs Minnesota

7. Michigan (6)
Record: 20-2, 9-2
Last Week: W 65-49 vs Ohio State, L 74-59 @ Iowa
This Week: 2/5 @ Rutgers, 2/9 vs Wisconsin

8. North Carolina (8)
Record: 17-4, 7-1
Last Week: W 77-54 @ Georgia Tech, W 79-69 @ Louisville
This Week: 2/5 vs North Carolina State, 2/9 vs Miami

9. Nevada (9)
Record: 21-1, 8-1
Last Week: W 87-70 @ UNLV, W 93-73 vs Boise State
This Week: 2/6 @ Colorado State, 2/9 vs New Mexico

10. Marquette (10)
Record: 18-3, 7-1
Last Week: W 76-58 @ Butler
This Week: 2/5 vs St. John's, 2/9 vs Villanova

11. Virginia Tech (11)
Record: 18-3, 7-2
Last Week: W 82-70 @ Miami, W 47-24 @ North Carolina State
This Week: 2/4 vs Louisville, 2/9 @ Clemson

12. Villanova (13)
Record: 18-4, 9-0
Last Week: W 86-74 @ DePaul, W 77-65 vs Georgetown
This Week: 2/6 vs Creighton, 2/9 @ Marquette

13. Purdue (16)
Record: 16-6, 9-2
Last Week: W 99-90 (OT) @ Penn State, W 73-63 vs Minnesota
This Week: 2/9 vs Nebraska

14. Kansas (12)
Record: 17-5, 6-3
Last Week: L 73-63 @ Texas, W 79-63 vs Texas Tech
This Week: 2/5 @ Kansas State, 2/9 vs Oklahoma State

15. Houston (15)
Record: 21-1, 8-1
Last Week: W 73-66 vs Temple
This Week: 2/7 @ UCF,  2/10 vs Cincinnati

16. Iowa State (19)
Record: 17-5, 6-3
Last Week: W 93-68 vs West Virginia, W 65-60 vs Texas
This Week: 2/4 @ Oklahoma, 2/9 vs TCU

17. Wisconsin (22)
Record: 16-6, 8-3
Last Week:W 62-51 @ Nebraska, W 69-61 vs Maryland
This Week: 2/6 @ Minnesota, 2/9 @ Michigan

18. LSU (14)
Record: 17-4, 7-1
Last Week: W 86-80 @ Texas A&M, L 90-89 vs Arkansas
This Week: 2/6 @ Mississippi State, 2/9 vs Auburn

19. Auburn (25)
Record: 15-6, 4-4
Last Week: W 92-58 vs Missouri, W 84-63 vs Alabama
This Week: 2/5 vs Florida, 2/9 @ LSU

20. Iowa (28)
Record: 17-5, 6-5
Last Week: W 74-59 vs Michigan
This Week: 2/7 @ Indiana, 2/10 vs Northwestern

21. Louisville (18)
Record: 16-6, 7-2
Last Week: W 82-54 @ Wake Forest, L 79-69 vs North Carolina
This Week: 2/4 @ Virginia Tech, 2/9 @ Florida State

22. Buffalo (17)
Record: 19-3, 7-2
Last Week: W 83-59 vs Ball State, L 92-88 @ Bowling Green
This Week: 2/9 vs Central Michigan

23. Mississippi State (21)
Record: 16-5, 4-4
Last Week: L 83-79 @ Alabama, W 81-75 vs Mississippi
This Week: 2/6 vs LSU, 2/9 vs Kentucky

24. Maryland (20)
Record: 17-6, 8-4
Last Week: W 70-52 vs Northwestern, L 69-61 @ Wisconsin
This Week: 2/6 @ Nebraska

25. Texas Tech (23)
Record: 17-5, 5-4
Last Week: W 84-65 vs TCU, L 79-63 @ Kansas
This Week: 2/4 vs West Virginia, 2/9 @ Oklahoma

Next 5
26. Baylor (NR)
Record: 15-6, 6-2
Last Week: W 77-47 @ Oklahoma, W 90-64 vs TCU
This Week: 2/6 @ Texas, 2/9 vs Kansas State

27. Washington (27)
Record: 18-4, 9-0
Last Week: W 75-62 vs USC, W 69-55 vs UCLA
This Week: 2/7 @ Arizona, 2/9 @ Arizona State

28. Kansas State (30)
Record: 16-5, 6-2
Last Week: W 75-57 @ Oklahoma State
This Week: 2/5 vs Kansas, 2/9 @ Baylor

29. Cincinnati (NR)
Record: 19-3, 8-1
Last Week: W 73-68 @ Temple
This Week: 2/7 @ Memphis, 2/10 @ Houston

30. Lipscomb (NR)
Record: 18-4, 9-0
Last Week: W 79-59 @ Liberty, W 102-80 vs North Alabama
This Week: 2/6 @ North Florida, 2/9 vs Jacksonville

Previously Ranked: TCU (24), North Carolina State (26), Mississippi (29)

Also Considered: Alabama, Florida, Florida State, Minnesota, Mississippi, North Carolina State, St. John's, TCU, Wofford

Notes

- Gonzaga has their biggest remaining week of the season, with games against San Francisco and Saint Mary's. The Dons gave the Bulldogs a game earlier this season in San Francisco, losing 96-83, although the game was much closer than that the entire way, and they need a win over the Zags in order to get back into the tournament picture. They then travel to familiar conference foe in Saint Mary's, who just beat USF with a 30 point performance from Malik Fitts, and 26 from dynamic scorer Jordan Ford. The Gaels are always a WCC challenger, even in a down year like this one, and it'll be a tough matchup for the Bulldogs. The Zags have been beating up on weaker WCC opponents, so how they handle these challenges will be really intriguing.

- Rough week for the Michigan schools. Both of them lost this week, with Michigan State falling at home to Indiana, and Michigan losing on the road to Iowa. They are both still in that top tier for me, but I think both of them have some real question marks. Michigan has struggled offensively at times, and their vaunted defense struggled to stop the Hawkeyes, while Michigan State looks like they are missing Joshua Langford and they've lost 2 straight. They could be in danger of dropping out of the elite tier with some more poor performances.

- North Carolina is heading towards that elite tier. They got revenge for an embarrassing home loss to Louisville with a 10 point road victory, and the Tar Heels are getting a lot more production from Nassir Little, which is making them a better team. However, I still think have those games when they don't play defense and can't get a bucket, and I'm very interested to see how they play against Duke and Virginia.

- The matchup between Villanova and Marquette is absolutely huge. I'll detail it more in my Big East Breakdown, which is coming out later today, but this is the biggest game in the Big East all season, and one of the biggest in the country this season, with two top 12 teams facing off. I'm excited to see what happens, and whoever wins is in line for a top 10 spot next week, as well as supremacy in the conference.

- Kansas dropped two spots, but with their win over Texas Tech, they are certainly trending upwards. They were really struggling before they blew out the Red Raiders, with losses to Kentucky and Texas, and they looked lost offensively. They are still the favorite in the Big 12, and they could be in position to make a top 10 jump next week, making their game against in-state rival Kansas State pretty big.

- Houston has the biggest week in the season, with games against UCF and Cincinnati, their two biggest challengers in the American. The Cougars have continued to climb in my rankings, and I think that they could be in the top 10 if they win these two games, especially the match up with the Bearcats, who are quietly really good and jumped into my Next 5 teams. 

- The top 16 seems pretty set to me, but the next 9 teams can go any way. Right now, the back end of the top 25 is insanely cluttered, with no team standing apart from the others in my mind. If you told me that next week, I had Wisconsin ranked at 25 and Texas Tech at 17, I wouldn't be shocked at all. There are like 10-15 teams in that next range who all feel really similar to me, so I've been struggling to separate them from one another. 

- Baylor has had the biggest turnaround of any team in the nation since conference play started, turning a non-conference season where they lost to Texas Southern and Stephen F. Austin to a 6-2 conference record, a 6 game winning streak, and they've done it all without Tristian Clark, one of the better players you've never heard of. I think the Bears could be in Top 25 next week, which I never would've believed a month ago.

- Washington has a real shot to be ranked after this week. The Huskies have a big trip to Arizona to play both Arizona and Arizona State, who are almost certainly 2 and 3 in the Pac-12, and this is the only time they will play each other. With wins here, they will be 11-0 in the conference with no bad losses, and you cannot ignore in my mind, especially with two more good road wins in conference play.

- I've ranked Lipscomb. They knocked off Liberty, which was very impressive given how they beat a good team by 20, and they are undefeated in conference play. However, the main reason they are ranked is how bad the rest of the teams have been. I couldn't justify ranking another team in the top 30, and honestly, Wofford is probably at 31 given how poor the other teams have been. 

- TCU was really disappointing to me. I thought that team was going to be a top 25 team after their win over Florida, and I put them at 24, but they lost twice this week in blowout fashion, and they finally look like they are missing Jaylen Fisher. I think they are more a 8-9 seed than a borderline top 25 team. 

What To Watch

2/4

#21 Louisville @ #11 Virginia Tech

Oklahoma @ #16 Iowa State

2/5

South Carolina @ #5 Kentucky

#7 Michigan @ Rutgers

Also Considered North Carolina State @ #8 North Carolina

Also Considered St. John's @ #10 Marquette

Also Considered Florida State @ Syracuse

#14 Kansas @ #28 Kansas State

Also Considered Florida @ #19 Auburn

2/6

#24 Maryland @ Nebraska

Creighton @ #12 Villanova

#26 Baylor @ Texas

#18 LSU @ #23 Mississippi State

#17 Wisconsin @ Also Considered Minnesota

2/7

#15 Houston @ UCF

San Francisco @ #4 Gonzaga

#20 Iowa @ Indiana

#27 Washington @ Arizona

2/8

N/A

2/9

#17 Wisconsin @ #7 Michigan

#5 Kentucky @ #23 Mississippi State

Also Considered Minnesota @ #6 Michigan State

#19 Auburn @ #18 LSU

Also Considered TCU @ #16 Iowa State

#12 Villanova @ #10 Marquette

Also Considered Florida @ #1 Tennessee

#21 Louisville @ Also Considered Florida State

#25 Texas Tech @ Oklahoma

#2 Duke @ #3 Virginia

#28 Kansas State @ #26 Baylor

Nebraska @ #13 Purdue

Saint Mary's @ #4 Gonzaga

#27 Washington @ Arizona State

2/10

#29 Cincinnati @ #15 Houston