The Big 12 might be the conference I'm most excited to watch down the stretch, as they have storylines aplenty, with their title still up in the air and Kansas in danger of not winning it for the first time since before Facebook was a month old. There are also multiple teams firmly on the bubble, so they are currently playing for their seasons. Almost every game has major implications, so it will be fascinating to watch. If you want my thoughts before next week, be sure to follow me on Twitter @ThreePointRange, where I'll be covering a lot of Big 12 action as it happens.
Thoughts
- There's basically just one big thought this week, and it's all about the conference title race. I have no idea who is going to win it or if anyone wants to win it to be frank. Anyone who has been reading me for a while knows that I've been a huge Iowa State fan all season, but god damn they have just let me down too many times. Following that resounding win over Kansas State where they looked like Villanova from last season, they got beat at home against Baylor and on the road to TCU, before breaking out their dynamic offense once more in their win over Oklahoma. I'm officially off of the bandwagon for the Cyclones and I think they are either going to be out in the first round or in the Elite Eight and there is no in between with this team. Kansas State still has no idea what an offense is as they showed against Kansas, and I have no faith in them being able to score. Let's get to the Jayhawks, as they continue to be a complete enigma. After losing by 29 to Texas Tech, they beat their in-state rivals and current Big 12 leader Kansas State by 15 and looked like an actual quality basketball team. Like the other two teams on this list so far, they will either flame out or make a run. Finally, the team I think will win the Big 12 in some capacity, it's Texas Tech. As previously mentioned, the Red Raiders killed Kansas and that game was indicative of how well they have been shooting the basketball recently. They have made double digit threes in their last 4 games after doing so just 3 times prior, so it's safe to say they have gotten hot. Over their last 5 games, they are shooting 46.8% from deep, and Davide Moretti has gotten hot alongside Jarrett Culver, who has found his stroke after struggling early in conference play. They also continue to have one of the best defenses in the country, and now that their offense is coming along as well, they are a very scary team and should be considered the favorite in the Big 12 title race right now.
Power Rankings
1. Texas Tech (3)
Record: 22-5, 10-4
2. Kansas (4)
Record: 21-7, 10-5
3. Kansas State (2)
Record: 21-7, 11-4
4. Iowa State (1)
Record: 20-8, 9-6
5. Baylor (5)
Record: 18-9, 9-5
6. Texas (6)
Record: 15-12, 7-7
7. TCU (7)
Record: 18-10, 6-9
8. Oklahoma (8)
Record: 17-11, 5-10
9. Oklahoma State (9)
Record: 10-17, 3-11
10. West Virginia (10)
Record: 11-17, 3-12
What to Watch
- Texas heads to play in-state foe Baylor in a huge bubble clash. The Longhorns handled their business, beating the Bears by 12 in the first matchup, although Kerwin Roach, who scored a game high 21 points, is now out after being suspended for a violation of team rules. That takes away a lot of scoring from Texas, and we saw that in the Oklahoma game. This is the type of game where Shaka Smart should break out his Havoc press that made him so successful at VCU. Baylor has struggled with turnovers this season, so the Longhorns should be attempting to get those steals as much as possible. For Baylor, they have a pretty big advantage on the offensive boards, as they have the second best offensive rebounding rate in the country, while Texas has struggled with that as Jackson Hayes still attempts to block everything in sight. However, I think that he will have a big game, as Baylor has gotten a lot of shots blocked this season, and Hayes is one of the best players in the nation at blocking shots, and the Bears have no one who is able to guard him. I think he'll be the difference for the Longhorns in a big victory.
- Texas has another big game against Iowa State, this time at home. It all depends on which Iowa State team shows up, which as you know from earlier, they are incredibly bipolar. The matchup should favor the Cyclones, given that the Longhorns struggle with everything around the three point line, and Iowa State is notorious for their incredible shooting from deep. Honestly, I don't really have a lot to say about this, I just think Iowa State can exploit Texas from deep and the Longhorns just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up.
- Texas Tech will be hosting TCU in a pretty huge game for TCU as they look to get into the tournament. They lost by 19 at home in the last matchup, so they will surely be looking for revenge, although it will be hard to come by against a stout Red Raiders defense. The turnover margin could be massive in this game as TCU coughs the ball up on 18.9% of possessions, while Tech is forcing turnovers 24% of the time, the fifth highest rate in the country. It really is hard to see an area where TCU would be able to have an advantage on the offensive end. Given how well the Red Raiders are shooting the ball right now, they could be looking at another blowout.
- Baylor will be facing off against Kansas State in a very intriguing matchup. Baylor has the best offensive efficiency in conference play, while the Wildcats have the second best defensive efficiency, so it should be a classic offense versus defense showdown. At first glance, the matchup looks like it would lean towards Wildcats, as they should be able to create turnovers against a Bears team that coughs it up often. Additionally, they do a good job on the boards, so they should be able to neutralize the Bears on the glass. However, if you look at the last game, that didn't happen, as Baylor still grabbed 15 offensive rebounds, but lost because Kansas State had 16 despite normally struggling in that area. I don't see them repeating that, so I see Baylor owning the glass in this game. Additionally, every Kansas State game is so tough to watch offensively, and they face off against the Baylor zone that gives good teams problems, so I think the Bears pull off a big road upset.
- Kansas plays at Oklahoma in a game that is huge for both teams. Kansas is looking to keep their Big 12 title streak alive, and they basically need to win out, while Oklahoma has the opportunity to get a huge resume win that would give their tournament hopes a big time boost. True road games have been tough for Kansas this season, with a 2-7 record, but the Sooners aren't exactly the toughest competition seeing as they have lost 6 go their last 8 at the time of writing with a game against West Virginia to be played before this contest. I have very little faith in the Sooners offense doing anything resembling a good performance, and Kansas apparently has the third best defensive efficiency in Big 12 play, so the Jayhawks are looking good in this one. They also just beat a Kansas State team that is similar to Oklahoma in that they have a good defense but can't score if their life depended on it, so that bodes well. Finally, Oklahoma isn't great at defending the arc, while Kansas has been shooting it fairly well of late, so I think their Big 12 title hopes remain alive after this game.
Full Big 12 Schedule 2/27-3/5
2/27
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech
Texas @ Baylor
3/2
Kansas @ Oklahoma State
Iowa State @ Texas
West Virginia @ Oklahoma
Texas Tech @ TCU
Baylor @ Kansas State
3/4
Texas @ Texas Tech
Kansas State @ TCU
3/5
Kansas @ Oklahoma
Tournament Tracker
Locks: Kansas, Texas Tech
I really don't see either one of these teams missing out on the tournament. Kansas has too many elite wins, having beaten Michigan State, Marquette, Tennessee, Wofford, Villanova, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Kansas State. Meanwhile, I don't know if the Red Raiders lose again in the regular season, and while their non-conference resume isn't great, they have done work in the Big 12, and they will be dancing for sure.
In the Field: Iowa State, Kansas State
These two teams have the opposite problem, in that Iowa State struggles to defend while Kansas State doesn't know where the basket is. Honestly, I can still see both of these teams losing out and creating a massive headache for the committee on Selection Sunday. They should be in, but honestly, I just don't know what they are going to do game to game.
Bubble: Texas, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma
The Big 12 bubble is fascinating, as two of these teams have losing records in conference play yet still have a pretty decent shot at dancing. I think the safest team right now is Baylor, although they still have to play bubble foe Texas at home and both Kansas schools on the road, along with Oklahoma State. If they lose those first 3 games, they might need to win a game in the Big 12 Tournament given how poorly they played in non-conference play, and those losses at home to Texas Southern and Stephen F Austin might come back to haunt them. Texas has some great wins (North Carolina on a neutral, Purdue and Kansas at home, Kansas State on the road) but some bad losses (Radford, and Providence at home, Georgia and Oklahoma State on the road). They play Baylor, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and TCU down the stretch, and 2-2 should have them in. Anything worse than that and they could be sweating things out on Selection Sunday. TCU has it tough, as they play Texas Tech, Kansas State, and Texas down the stretch. On one hand, they have opportunities for some really good wins and they could be instrumental in giving Kansas the Big 12 title. However, it also means they have to play some really good teams and they are playing some bad basketball right now, losing 4 of their last 5, including games against Oklahoma State and West Virginia, so they've got an uphill climb. Finally, Oklahoma has also gone cold after a nice start to the season, when they got some quality non-conference wins over Wofford, Florida, and Creighton, but they've struggled in the Big 12, so their resume isn't in the best shape. If they can beat West Virginia at home and pick off one of Kansas State and Kansas, they should be in, but I think it will come down to the wire for them.
Out: Oklahoma State, West Virginia
Thoughts
- There's basically just one big thought this week, and it's all about the conference title race. I have no idea who is going to win it or if anyone wants to win it to be frank. Anyone who has been reading me for a while knows that I've been a huge Iowa State fan all season, but god damn they have just let me down too many times. Following that resounding win over Kansas State where they looked like Villanova from last season, they got beat at home against Baylor and on the road to TCU, before breaking out their dynamic offense once more in their win over Oklahoma. I'm officially off of the bandwagon for the Cyclones and I think they are either going to be out in the first round or in the Elite Eight and there is no in between with this team. Kansas State still has no idea what an offense is as they showed against Kansas, and I have no faith in them being able to score. Let's get to the Jayhawks, as they continue to be a complete enigma. After losing by 29 to Texas Tech, they beat their in-state rivals and current Big 12 leader Kansas State by 15 and looked like an actual quality basketball team. Like the other two teams on this list so far, they will either flame out or make a run. Finally, the team I think will win the Big 12 in some capacity, it's Texas Tech. As previously mentioned, the Red Raiders killed Kansas and that game was indicative of how well they have been shooting the basketball recently. They have made double digit threes in their last 4 games after doing so just 3 times prior, so it's safe to say they have gotten hot. Over their last 5 games, they are shooting 46.8% from deep, and Davide Moretti has gotten hot alongside Jarrett Culver, who has found his stroke after struggling early in conference play. They also continue to have one of the best defenses in the country, and now that their offense is coming along as well, they are a very scary team and should be considered the favorite in the Big 12 title race right now.
Power Rankings
1. Texas Tech (3)
Record: 22-5, 10-4
2. Kansas (4)
Record: 21-7, 10-5
3. Kansas State (2)
Record: 21-7, 11-4
4. Iowa State (1)
Record: 20-8, 9-6
5. Baylor (5)
Record: 18-9, 9-5
6. Texas (6)
Record: 15-12, 7-7
7. TCU (7)
Record: 18-10, 6-9
8. Oklahoma (8)
Record: 17-11, 5-10
9. Oklahoma State (9)
Record: 10-17, 3-11
10. West Virginia (10)
Record: 11-17, 3-12
What to Watch
- Texas heads to play in-state foe Baylor in a huge bubble clash. The Longhorns handled their business, beating the Bears by 12 in the first matchup, although Kerwin Roach, who scored a game high 21 points, is now out after being suspended for a violation of team rules. That takes away a lot of scoring from Texas, and we saw that in the Oklahoma game. This is the type of game where Shaka Smart should break out his Havoc press that made him so successful at VCU. Baylor has struggled with turnovers this season, so the Longhorns should be attempting to get those steals as much as possible. For Baylor, they have a pretty big advantage on the offensive boards, as they have the second best offensive rebounding rate in the country, while Texas has struggled with that as Jackson Hayes still attempts to block everything in sight. However, I think that he will have a big game, as Baylor has gotten a lot of shots blocked this season, and Hayes is one of the best players in the nation at blocking shots, and the Bears have no one who is able to guard him. I think he'll be the difference for the Longhorns in a big victory.
- Texas has another big game against Iowa State, this time at home. It all depends on which Iowa State team shows up, which as you know from earlier, they are incredibly bipolar. The matchup should favor the Cyclones, given that the Longhorns struggle with everything around the three point line, and Iowa State is notorious for their incredible shooting from deep. Honestly, I don't really have a lot to say about this, I just think Iowa State can exploit Texas from deep and the Longhorns just don't have the offensive firepower to keep up.
- Texas Tech will be hosting TCU in a pretty huge game for TCU as they look to get into the tournament. They lost by 19 at home in the last matchup, so they will surely be looking for revenge, although it will be hard to come by against a stout Red Raiders defense. The turnover margin could be massive in this game as TCU coughs the ball up on 18.9% of possessions, while Tech is forcing turnovers 24% of the time, the fifth highest rate in the country. It really is hard to see an area where TCU would be able to have an advantage on the offensive end. Given how well the Red Raiders are shooting the ball right now, they could be looking at another blowout.
- Baylor will be facing off against Kansas State in a very intriguing matchup. Baylor has the best offensive efficiency in conference play, while the Wildcats have the second best defensive efficiency, so it should be a classic offense versus defense showdown. At first glance, the matchup looks like it would lean towards Wildcats, as they should be able to create turnovers against a Bears team that coughs it up often. Additionally, they do a good job on the boards, so they should be able to neutralize the Bears on the glass. However, if you look at the last game, that didn't happen, as Baylor still grabbed 15 offensive rebounds, but lost because Kansas State had 16 despite normally struggling in that area. I don't see them repeating that, so I see Baylor owning the glass in this game. Additionally, every Kansas State game is so tough to watch offensively, and they face off against the Baylor zone that gives good teams problems, so I think the Bears pull off a big road upset.
- Kansas plays at Oklahoma in a game that is huge for both teams. Kansas is looking to keep their Big 12 title streak alive, and they basically need to win out, while Oklahoma has the opportunity to get a huge resume win that would give their tournament hopes a big time boost. True road games have been tough for Kansas this season, with a 2-7 record, but the Sooners aren't exactly the toughest competition seeing as they have lost 6 go their last 8 at the time of writing with a game against West Virginia to be played before this contest. I have very little faith in the Sooners offense doing anything resembling a good performance, and Kansas apparently has the third best defensive efficiency in Big 12 play, so the Jayhawks are looking good in this one. They also just beat a Kansas State team that is similar to Oklahoma in that they have a good defense but can't score if their life depended on it, so that bodes well. Finally, Oklahoma isn't great at defending the arc, while Kansas has been shooting it fairly well of late, so I think their Big 12 title hopes remain alive after this game.
Full Big 12 Schedule 2/27-3/5
2/27
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech
Texas @ Baylor
3/2
Kansas @ Oklahoma State
Iowa State @ Texas
West Virginia @ Oklahoma
Texas Tech @ TCU
Baylor @ Kansas State
3/4
Texas @ Texas Tech
Kansas State @ TCU
3/5
Kansas @ Oklahoma
Tournament Tracker
Locks: Kansas, Texas Tech
I really don't see either one of these teams missing out on the tournament. Kansas has too many elite wins, having beaten Michigan State, Marquette, Tennessee, Wofford, Villanova, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Kansas State. Meanwhile, I don't know if the Red Raiders lose again in the regular season, and while their non-conference resume isn't great, they have done work in the Big 12, and they will be dancing for sure.
In the Field: Iowa State, Kansas State
These two teams have the opposite problem, in that Iowa State struggles to defend while Kansas State doesn't know where the basket is. Honestly, I can still see both of these teams losing out and creating a massive headache for the committee on Selection Sunday. They should be in, but honestly, I just don't know what they are going to do game to game.
Bubble: Texas, Baylor, TCU, Oklahoma
The Big 12 bubble is fascinating, as two of these teams have losing records in conference play yet still have a pretty decent shot at dancing. I think the safest team right now is Baylor, although they still have to play bubble foe Texas at home and both Kansas schools on the road, along with Oklahoma State. If they lose those first 3 games, they might need to win a game in the Big 12 Tournament given how poorly they played in non-conference play, and those losses at home to Texas Southern and Stephen F Austin might come back to haunt them. Texas has some great wins (North Carolina on a neutral, Purdue and Kansas at home, Kansas State on the road) but some bad losses (Radford, and Providence at home, Georgia and Oklahoma State on the road). They play Baylor, Iowa State, Texas Tech, and TCU down the stretch, and 2-2 should have them in. Anything worse than that and they could be sweating things out on Selection Sunday. TCU has it tough, as they play Texas Tech, Kansas State, and Texas down the stretch. On one hand, they have opportunities for some really good wins and they could be instrumental in giving Kansas the Big 12 title. However, it also means they have to play some really good teams and they are playing some bad basketball right now, losing 4 of their last 5, including games against Oklahoma State and West Virginia, so they've got an uphill climb. Finally, Oklahoma has also gone cold after a nice start to the season, when they got some quality non-conference wins over Wofford, Florida, and Creighton, but they've struggled in the Big 12, so their resume isn't in the best shape. If they can beat West Virginia at home and pick off one of Kansas State and Kansas, they should be in, but I think it will come down to the wire for them.
Out: Oklahoma State, West Virginia
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