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ACC Breakdown 1/29/19

There are some exciting games coming up this week in the ACC, with multiple top 25 matchups coming in the week ahead. There are a lot of quality teams, so there are always good matchups, although the conference isn't as deep as it has been. I'm also tweeting about the ACC on Twitter @ThreePointRange, so if you want to discuss it, that's a great place to do it.

Thoughts
- You gotta feel for Marcquise Reed and Clemson. The senior laden group came into the season with high expectations, and I will get into the Tigers a little more later, but it looked as if they were going to get a big win at North Carolina State. They were up three with 14 seconds left when Reed, a 82% foul shooter this season, got sent to the line. He missed both. Clemson chose to foul up three, a strategy I don't love but that's beside the point, and the Pack made both. Reed got sent back to the foul line, up one, with seven seconds to go. He once again missed both free throws, and Braxton Beverly would go on to make a three for the Wolfpack victory. I know Reed has to make those shots, but I can't help but feel for the kid, he's older than me but still a kid, and I hope he makes a big shot at some point down the line for the Tigers.

- Louisville and Chris Mack have been talked about ad nauseam, but I wanted to say a few things about the Cardinals. First off, they had a really nice week, with wins over North Carolina State and Pittsburgh at home. I've said it before and I'll say it again: protecting home court in conference play is huge, and winning those two games is Louisville doing exactly that. I would also like to point out they have a super tough stretch coming up, starting with the North Carolina game on Saturday. Following that, they have away games against Virginia Tech and Florida State, home games versus Duke and Clemson, they travel to Syracuse, and then play Virginia at home. There are certainly winnable games there, and if they can manage to go 4-3 through that stretch, it'd be huge. I'm really interested to see how they perform throughout this really tough stretch.

- Florida State had a nice bounce back week, getting two wins to stop a three game skid. Now, they were over Clemson and Miami, so not the most impressive results, but a win is a win, especially for a struggling team. They seem like a team that can get into the field of 68 and then wreak havoc like they did last season, and they would be a dangerous 7-10 seed. However, I'm worried about the lack of a go-to scorer, with MJ Walker not taking the jump that many, myself included, thought and the Noles only have 2 players averaging in double figures, and they are led by big man Mfiondu Kabengele, who is scoring 13 a night. This is definitely a team to monitor throughout ACC play.

- Duke is just ridiculously good. Like everyone knows this, but it is worth stating sometimes because we might be taking the special talent is on their roster. Zion Williamson might be the most can't-miss prospect since Lebron James. RJ Barrett leads the team in scoring at 23.6 points a game and is nigh unstoppable when attacking the basket. Don't at me, but Cam Reddish is one of my favorite prospect in the country and I fully buy into his mix of athleticism, playmaking, and shooting at 6'9". Tre Jones is an incredible defender and one of the best pure point guards in the nation. They have high level role players in Marques Bolden, Javin DeLaurier, and Jack White. Coach K is one of the best coaches of all time, and is still doing it at a high level. I just think sometimes when you actually break down this entire roster, you really see why this team is so good.

Power Rankings
1. Duke (1)
Record: 18-2, 7-1

2. Virginia (2)
Record: 18-1, 6-1

3. North Carolina (3)
Record: 15-4, 5-1

4. Louisville (5)
Record: 15-5, 6-1

5. Virginia Tech (4)
Record: 16-3, 5-2

6. North Carolina State (6)
Record: 16-4, 4-3

7. Syracuse (7)
Record: 14-6, 5-2

8. Florida State (9)
Record: 15-5, 3-4

9. Pittsburgh (8)
Record: 12-8, 2-5

10. Georgia Tech (13)
Record: 11-9, 3-4

11. Clemson (10)
Record: 11-8, 1-5

12. Miami (11)
Record: 9-10, 1-6

13. Boston College (14)
Record: 11-7, 2-4

14. Notre Dame (12)
Record: 11-10, 1-7

15. Wake Forest (15)
Record: 8-11, 1-6

What To Watch
- Virginia is heading to North Carolina State tonight, and I am really interested to watch this one. The key here is obviously pace, with the Wolfpack favoring a helter skelter style, and Virginia is known for their methodical pace. I really trust the Cavaliers to hold onto the ball, which is a pretty huge advantage against NC State since turnovers are such a huge part of their game. I also think Virginia can lock up the Wolfpack's three point shooting, as they hold opponents to 25% from three point range. We've seen Tony Bennett be much more adaptable offensively, so I would bet on North Carolina State jumping out to an early lead at home before Virginia slowly but surely comes back and controls the game for the final 30 minutes on their way to a victory.

- I broke down this game in my Big East preview on Sunday, so if you want a preview on this game, be sure to check there.

- Virginia Tech also heading to North Carolina State, and that one should be fun. We saw what they can do against Syracuse with Justin Robinson going off and the Hokies making 14 threes in the game. I'm very interested to see how they play against the Pack. Robinson, while now the the assists leader at Virginia Tech and a sharpshooter from deep, I think he can occasionally do too much and make bad decisions on the court. Facing North Carolina State and their high pressure defense, he should have the ball in his hands a lot and how he handles it will determine the outcome of this game. I'll say that North Carolina State forces just enough turnovers and bothers the Hokies just enough on their three pointers to take this one at home.

- Most ACC fans will remember the beatdown that occurred at the Dean Dome when Louisville took the game to North Carolina and beat them 83-62. That started a 5 game winning streak for the Cardinals, and now the Tar Heels will get a chance to get revenge when they head to Louisville on Saturday. Last time out, North Carolina seemingly had no interest in playing defense and Louisville was getting whatever they wanted, shooting 52% on the game and making 11 threes. I think they regress to the mean a little bit, although I still think they do a good job offensively, mostly by getting to the foul line. The x-factor in this game will be Nassir Little, whose play has been improving as of late. However, a good majority of his 23 points against Virginia Tech came after the game has been decided, and there have been some overreactions to that performance. If he can put together another good performance, I think the Tar Heels win, and if he struggles, I'd still slightly lean UNC, although it's going to be close no matter what.

- As I mentioned earlier, Louisville has a gauntlet of a schedule coming up, and they continue that versus Virginia Tech on Monday. As with every Hokies' game, it comes down to defending the arc on the defensive end. The Cardinals are average on that front, but they did a good job against North Carolina, holding the Tar Heels to 3-22 shooting, and held Pitt under 30% from behind the arc. I really don't know how that translates against a team as elite as Virginia Tech from deep, but there is at least some reason for optimism. I also don't know if Virginia Tech can stop Louisville, and specifically Jordan Nwora, so there figures to be offensive fireworks in this game. That favors the Hokies, so they'll get a big road win.

Full ACC Schedule 1/29-2/4
1/29
Virginia @ North Carolina State
North Carolina @ Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh @ Clemson
1/30
Virginia Tech @ Miami
Louisville @ Wake Forest
Syracuse @ Boston College
2/2
St. John's @ Duke
Virginia Tech @ North Carolina State
Georgia Tech @ Florida State
Miami @ Virginia
North Carolina @ Louisville
Notre Dame @ Boston College
Syracuse @ Pittsburgh
2/3
Wake Forest @ Clemson
2/4
Louisville @ Virginia Tech

3 Questions
1. Will the real Syracuse please stand up?
*sigh* So I think people know I'm a Syracuse student and fan, and I do try to be unbiased when I talk about the Orange most of the time. So with that in mind, the Orange are so inconsistent. Their shooting is really the biggest thing at the moment, with Syracuse going from 14 makes against Miami  on 30 attempts on Thursday night to 9 against Virginia Tech while shooting 28 threes. On the year, they are shooting 32.4% from behind the arc, but in ACC play, they are knocking down 36% of their threes. I truly think this is a good shooting team, and I believe in the Orange to continue to win basketball games. However, let's not forget that before they beat Duke, they lost to Georgia Tech at home. I think that Syracuse is being underrated nationally, and I believe this is a tournament team that can get up to a 6-7 seed if things go right for them.

2. What's wrong with Clemson?
I was always low on the Tigers coming into the season, and they have proven me right this year. I think they overachieved last season, and they have regressed back to the mean this year. They have also gotten a tough draw so far in ACC play, losing to Duke, Syracuse, Virginia, Florida State, and North Carolina State, and their next five games are much easier, coming against Pitt, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Miami. They have a real opportunity to go 4-1 over that stretch, which would put them back to where many thought they would be. However, I think they drop one, maybe two, more games in that stretch and I just don't see them as all that good. Their three point shooting has dropped off this season, and their offense just isn't able to factor without that floor spacing.

3. Is there a ninth tournament team?
It's kind of wild to look at the ACC and only see eight teams that have tournament cases in January. They normally have 10-11 teams with tournament caliber resumes at this stage, and really, if you squint super hard, maybe Pitt and Clemson have a case, but I don't think either ends up dancing. Clemson has no good wins, outside of Lipscomb at home, and while Pittsburgh has wins over Louisville and Florida State, they lost to Niagara, which is a resume killer. I really only think 8 teams get in, and if Syracuse or Florida State drops off, there could only be seven bids here.

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