The ACC is really interesting to me. There is a very clear group of tiers, with Duke and Virginia clearly being the cream of the crop, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, and Louisville being in the second tier, followed by North Carolina State, Syracuse, and Florida State, then Clemson and Pittsburgh, and then the bottom with Georgia Tech, Boston College, Notre Dame, Miami, and Wake Forest. It feels like the ACC is weaker than in previous years, especially at the bottom, since a lot of those teams are in pretty bad down years. It really feels like the top is awesome, and that's what everyone talks about, but no one mentions how dreadful five of the teams are. Anyways, I'll be at the next two Syracuse games, so if you want live updates, you can find me on Twitter @ThreePointRange and Go Orange!
Thoughts
- North Carolina State has been one of my favorite teams all season. I love Kevin Keatts' style of play, I think there is a lot of the roster, and I thought they played really well in non-conference play. Ever since they entered ACC play, things have gone... poorly. They haven't won any of their games by more than 6 points in conference play, and they sit with a losing record at the moment. One of those losses is to Wake Forest, which is the Demon Deacons' only win thus far. Still, they had yet to lose by double digits and they looked like they had a good shot to beat Virginia Tech at home. Then everything went to shit. They made me want to gouge my eyes out watching them attempt to score, and only managing 24 points. They shot 9-54 from the field and had multiple prolonged scoring droughts. I am starting to want to hide my love for the Wolfpack, and I'm starting to get worried about their future.
- On the other side of the atrocity that was Virginia Tech-North Carolina State was the Hokies also struggling on offense. I think the biggest factor has to be Justin Robinson. The diminutive point guard is electric, and look no further than his performance against Syracuse for how good he can be, when he scored 35 points and made 9 threes, and also had 8 assists. He got hurt in the win over Miami, and the team hasn't been the same with him out of the lineup in the last two games. He was such a talented playmaker, and his attacking the basket really opened up the court for all the other talented shooters and it makes the Hokies offense operate at an elite level. I don't think his replacement Wabissa Bede is bad by any means, I actually really like him, but Robinson really opens up the offense. One thing I think could happen is Nickeil Alexander-Walker taking over the point guard duties. He's shown good passing instincts and from what I've read, NBA teams are looking at him as at the very least a secondary playmaker. Let's also not overlook the fact that he has grew up around Clippers rookie point and lottery pick Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, which certainly can't be a bad thing. I am really interested to see what happens with the Hokies while Robinson remains out and how the offense looks as a whole.
- Oshae Brissett has really turned it on in the last few games. He was the best player for the Orange when they got demolished by Virignia Tech, scoring 16 and getting 7 rebounds, and had a double double in their win over Pittsburgh, finishing with 18 and 12. I've seen him play a lot this year, and I think he has legitimate first round NBA potential. However, earlier this season, he was doing a lot of floating around the perimeter and taking threes. I think he has a good touch from three point range, but he's always been at his best when he's attacking the basket. He's starting to do that a lot more recently, and that's only helped Syracuse continue to win games.
- Duke was up 10 at the half on St. John's, with Shamorie Ponds being held scoreless in the first half and the Red Storm feeling like they had a good chance to get back into the game. At the under 16 timeout, Duke was on a 14-2 run and had opened up a 22 point lead. The Blue Devils' ability to open up huge leads at the beginning of the second half continues to amaze me. I am continually blown away by this team, and they really are a college basketball version of the Monstars. Tre Jones locked down a potential first round pick in Shamorie Ponds, RJ Barrett had a double double with 15 points and 14 rebounds, Cam Reddish showed off his smooth shooting stroke with 16 points and 4 made threes, and Zion continued to do Zion things, posting a casual 29 points, 6 rebounds, 5 steals, and 2 blocks. It's pretty shocking that this team lost twice, although they played one of the best teams in the nation and Gonzaga, I think they might be my national title favorite at the moment.
Power Rankings
1. Duke (1)
Record: 19-2, 7-1
2. Virginia (2)
Record: 20-1, 8-1
3. North Carolina (3)
Record: 17-4, 7-1
4. Virginia Tech (5)
Record: 18-4, 7-3
5. Louisville (4)
Record: 17-6, 8-2
6. Syracuse (7)
Record: 16-6, 7-2
7. North Carolina State (6)
Record: 16-6, 4-5
8. Florida State (8)
Record: 16-5, 4-4
9. Clemson (11)
Record: 13-8, 3-5
10. Pittsburgh (9)
Record: 12-10, 2-7
11. Georgia Tech (10)
Record: 11-11, 3-6
12. Boston College (13)
Record: 11-7, 2-6
13. Notre Dame (14)
Record: 11-10, 2-7
14. Miami (12)
Record: 9-12, 1-8
15. Wake Forest (15)
Record: 8-11, 1-6
What To Watch
- Florida State will come to the Carrier Dome tonight to take on Syracuse, and I'll be there to see all of it. I don't love this matchup for my beloved Orange, since they are at their best when they are playing up-tempo, which plays into the hand of the Seminoles, who thrive on pushing the tempo and forcing turnovers. I do like the ability of the zone to keep the Noles out of transition, which really helps, and the lack of a good point guard is a death wish against the length of the 2-3. I also don't think Florida State has the shooting to break the zone, only making 32.8% of their shots from deep on the year, and outside of Phil Cofer, who I expect to make 4 threes in the corner because the Orange have a tendency to overextend to the wing, I'm really not worried about them making shots. The x-factor in my mind is Eljah Hughes, who will need to make a few threes for the offense to be at it's best and I think he will push the Orange over the edge to a victory.
- North Carolina State has a rematch with in-state rival North Carolina tonight after suffering a 90-82 victory on their home court earlier this season. All year, the Wolfpack have played up and down to their competition, and I expect the same tonight. I also expect North Carolina to continue the increase in playing time of Nassir Little. In the last matchup, the talented freshman played 17 minutes and was barely felt during his time on the floor. However, against a NC State team that likes to play small, I think he can get significant minutes as a small-ball four and he would be a good matchup for Pack star Torin Dorn. While Little is still rough around the edges defensively, he is certainly physical like Dorn, and I believe he could stop him. The biggest difference last time was the huge advantage for the Tar Heels on the glass, out rebounding their opposition by 18 in the last matchup, and when they have two bigs on the floor, I don't know how North Carolina State keeps them off the glass. I believe this is a pretty open and shut case for the Tar Heels getting a season sweep.
- Louisville will be in Tallahassee to play Florida State this weekend. The Cardinals are coming off a big win against Virginia Tech, and I like them in this one as well. The main thing that sticks out to me is the Seminoles tendency to foul, and Louisville succeeds at getting to the foul line and converting, with the thirteenth best free throw percentage in the nation. That seems like a way that Louisville is getting consistent points and given how volatile the Seminoles' offense is, that is huge when facing that team. One thing that is noteworthy is Louisville's struggles with getting their shot blocked, and going up against Mfiondu Kabingele and Christ Koumadje is not ideal for a team like that, as they both have top 100 block rates according to KenPom. Getting those blocks will allow Florida State to get out and run which is huge for them. They will need to be able to get those blocks to control the tempo, but I don't think they can get enough to knock off Jordan Nwora and the Cardinals.
- In arguably the biggest matchup of the season to date, Duke heads on the road to take on Virginia. The Blue Devils get a chance to sweep the Cavaliers, and a sweep of a fellow top 3 team would be absolutely huge, and Virginia has a huge chance to defend their home court against the Dukies and avenge the earlier loss, as well as silencing all the doubters who still remain after last season's tournament. After a 72-70 thriller in their last matchup, featuring two 27+ point performances from RJ Barrett and Zion Williamson. The thing that I am most interested in is getting to watch Duke with Tre Jones, as he was absent in the last matchup. I think he almost makes Kihei Clark unplayable for the Cavs, as he is 5'9" and he was awful in the last matchup against the size of Duke. Add in a 6'2" ball hawk who would be matched up with him, I would be very worried about playing him if I'm Tony Bennett. I would still lean Virginia in this one, and my reasoning here is pretty simple. In the last game, the Hoos only made 3 shots from behind the arc, and shot 17.6% from behind the arc, which is awful compared to the 39.4% they shoot on the year. I also think De'Andre Hunter will be all over RJ Barrett after RJ had 30 in the last matchup, and Hunter will surely be looking to cement himself as a top 5 pick in the NBA Draft, so I'll give Virginia the big home win.
- Virginia gets no rest, having to travel to Chapel Hill to play North Carolina just two days later. Clark will face another tough matchup in 6'5" point guard Coby White for the Tar Heels, and but I am less worried about him in this contest. White isn't the defender that Jones is, and Clark should be much better in this game. The biggest factor will be the pace, as North Carolina has one of the fastest in the nation, while the Cavs are notoriously slow. It's going to be very intriguing to see if North Carolina can speed up Virginia in a way that no other team has been able to. I don't think they can, and I don't think they can get stops defensively, as the Tar Heels have struggled on that end against elite competition. I think things are looking great for Virginia to come up with a big win against North Carolina.
Full ACC Schedule 2/5-2/11
2/5
Boston College @ Duke
Pittsburgh @ Wake Forest
North Carolina State @ North Carolina
Florida State @ Syracuse
2/6
Clemson @ Georgia Tech
Notre Dame @ Miami
2/9
Miami @ North Carolina
Virginia Tech @ Clemson
Boston College @ Syracuse
North Carolina State @ Pittsburgh
Louisville @ Florida State
Duke @ Virginia
2/10
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame
2/11
Virginia @ North Carolina
Tournament Tracker
Locks: Duke, Virginia
In a shocking twist, these two elite outfits are both locks for March. Duke has only lost to Gonzaga and Syracuse, while Virginia's only loss is to the Blue Devils, and both have great wins, so I'll say they will be absolute locks for a 1 or 2 seed in March.
In the Field: North Carolina, Louisville, Virginia Tech
You could make a very strong case for North Carolina being a lock, but I'm just not quite there yet. The 4 losses are one too many for me to elevate them to lock status right now. Louisville also has a large quantity of losses, sitting with 6, but they have wins over Michigan State, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech to headline a really strong resume that keeps them pretty clearly off the bubble. Finally, the Hokies have a really ugly loss to Penn State, but hold victories over Purdue as a headliner and every solid victories over Washington, Syracuse, and North Carolina State. These teams should all feel really good about their tournament chances and won't be sweating out on Selection Sunday.
Bubble: North Carolina State, Syracuse, Florida State, Clemson
Florida State is probably the safest of the group right now, but they could be slipping soon. The Purdue, LSU, and Florida wins from earlier in the year after a strong non-conference schedule, and would have been up a tier if not for losses to Pittsburgh and Boston College. With two big matchups this week, they could either elevate themselves to the tier above, or firmly put themselves on the bubble. The Wolfpack have also fallen to the bubble. They hold a win over Auburn, but other than that, they have no really impressive wins, and they have a losing record in ACC play with a loss to Wake Forest, and I am legit worried about the Pack right now. The Orange are the opposite of those two teams, surging to a 7-2 record in the ACC, with the best win in the country at Duke. Sure, losses to Oregon, UConn, Old Dominion, and Georgia Tech are bad, but the quantity of their wins in the ACC along with that Duke win, and a nice road win over Ohio State, has them looking good for March right now, although they have a tough stretch coming up. Finally, Clemson is holding onto their tournament hopes by the skin of their teeth. Their best win is over Lipscomb, but they have no bad losses, so they will need to get some big wins to get themselves into the tournament.
Out: Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, Miami, Boston College, Notre Dame, Wake Forest
I really don't think any of these teams have hope, with the exception maybe being Pitt. While the Panthers are on a five game losing streak, they have victories over Louisville and Florida State, and they have a pretty easy next three games with a shot at North Carolina State, which would give them another solid victory. That Niagara loss is really dragging them down, so they need to knock off a few more big ACC names in order to get onto the bubble.
Thoughts
- North Carolina State has been one of my favorite teams all season. I love Kevin Keatts' style of play, I think there is a lot of the roster, and I thought they played really well in non-conference play. Ever since they entered ACC play, things have gone... poorly. They haven't won any of their games by more than 6 points in conference play, and they sit with a losing record at the moment. One of those losses is to Wake Forest, which is the Demon Deacons' only win thus far. Still, they had yet to lose by double digits and they looked like they had a good shot to beat Virginia Tech at home. Then everything went to shit. They made me want to gouge my eyes out watching them attempt to score, and only managing 24 points. They shot 9-54 from the field and had multiple prolonged scoring droughts. I am starting to want to hide my love for the Wolfpack, and I'm starting to get worried about their future.
- On the other side of the atrocity that was Virginia Tech-North Carolina State was the Hokies also struggling on offense. I think the biggest factor has to be Justin Robinson. The diminutive point guard is electric, and look no further than his performance against Syracuse for how good he can be, when he scored 35 points and made 9 threes, and also had 8 assists. He got hurt in the win over Miami, and the team hasn't been the same with him out of the lineup in the last two games. He was such a talented playmaker, and his attacking the basket really opened up the court for all the other talented shooters and it makes the Hokies offense operate at an elite level. I don't think his replacement Wabissa Bede is bad by any means, I actually really like him, but Robinson really opens up the offense. One thing I think could happen is Nickeil Alexander-Walker taking over the point guard duties. He's shown good passing instincts and from what I've read, NBA teams are looking at him as at the very least a secondary playmaker. Let's also not overlook the fact that he has grew up around Clippers rookie point and lottery pick Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, which certainly can't be a bad thing. I am really interested to see what happens with the Hokies while Robinson remains out and how the offense looks as a whole.
- Oshae Brissett has really turned it on in the last few games. He was the best player for the Orange when they got demolished by Virignia Tech, scoring 16 and getting 7 rebounds, and had a double double in their win over Pittsburgh, finishing with 18 and 12. I've seen him play a lot this year, and I think he has legitimate first round NBA potential. However, earlier this season, he was doing a lot of floating around the perimeter and taking threes. I think he has a good touch from three point range, but he's always been at his best when he's attacking the basket. He's starting to do that a lot more recently, and that's only helped Syracuse continue to win games.
- Duke was up 10 at the half on St. John's, with Shamorie Ponds being held scoreless in the first half and the Red Storm feeling like they had a good chance to get back into the game. At the under 16 timeout, Duke was on a 14-2 run and had opened up a 22 point lead. The Blue Devils' ability to open up huge leads at the beginning of the second half continues to amaze me. I am continually blown away by this team, and they really are a college basketball version of the Monstars. Tre Jones locked down a potential first round pick in Shamorie Ponds, RJ Barrett had a double double with 15 points and 14 rebounds, Cam Reddish showed off his smooth shooting stroke with 16 points and 4 made threes, and Zion continued to do Zion things, posting a casual 29 points, 6 rebounds, 5 steals, and 2 blocks. It's pretty shocking that this team lost twice, although they played one of the best teams in the nation and Gonzaga, I think they might be my national title favorite at the moment.
Power Rankings
1. Duke (1)
Record: 19-2, 7-1
2. Virginia (2)
Record: 20-1, 8-1
3. North Carolina (3)
Record: 17-4, 7-1
4. Virginia Tech (5)
Record: 18-4, 7-3
5. Louisville (4)
Record: 17-6, 8-2
6. Syracuse (7)
Record: 16-6, 7-2
7. North Carolina State (6)
Record: 16-6, 4-5
8. Florida State (8)
Record: 16-5, 4-4
9. Clemson (11)
Record: 13-8, 3-5
10. Pittsburgh (9)
Record: 12-10, 2-7
11. Georgia Tech (10)
Record: 11-11, 3-6
12. Boston College (13)
Record: 11-7, 2-6
13. Notre Dame (14)
Record: 11-10, 2-7
14. Miami (12)
Record: 9-12, 1-8
15. Wake Forest (15)
Record: 8-11, 1-6
- Florida State will come to the Carrier Dome tonight to take on Syracuse, and I'll be there to see all of it. I don't love this matchup for my beloved Orange, since they are at their best when they are playing up-tempo, which plays into the hand of the Seminoles, who thrive on pushing the tempo and forcing turnovers. I do like the ability of the zone to keep the Noles out of transition, which really helps, and the lack of a good point guard is a death wish against the length of the 2-3. I also don't think Florida State has the shooting to break the zone, only making 32.8% of their shots from deep on the year, and outside of Phil Cofer, who I expect to make 4 threes in the corner because the Orange have a tendency to overextend to the wing, I'm really not worried about them making shots. The x-factor in my mind is Eljah Hughes, who will need to make a few threes for the offense to be at it's best and I think he will push the Orange over the edge to a victory.
- North Carolina State has a rematch with in-state rival North Carolina tonight after suffering a 90-82 victory on their home court earlier this season. All year, the Wolfpack have played up and down to their competition, and I expect the same tonight. I also expect North Carolina to continue the increase in playing time of Nassir Little. In the last matchup, the talented freshman played 17 minutes and was barely felt during his time on the floor. However, against a NC State team that likes to play small, I think he can get significant minutes as a small-ball four and he would be a good matchup for Pack star Torin Dorn. While Little is still rough around the edges defensively, he is certainly physical like Dorn, and I believe he could stop him. The biggest difference last time was the huge advantage for the Tar Heels on the glass, out rebounding their opposition by 18 in the last matchup, and when they have two bigs on the floor, I don't know how North Carolina State keeps them off the glass. I believe this is a pretty open and shut case for the Tar Heels getting a season sweep.
- Louisville will be in Tallahassee to play Florida State this weekend. The Cardinals are coming off a big win against Virginia Tech, and I like them in this one as well. The main thing that sticks out to me is the Seminoles tendency to foul, and Louisville succeeds at getting to the foul line and converting, with the thirteenth best free throw percentage in the nation. That seems like a way that Louisville is getting consistent points and given how volatile the Seminoles' offense is, that is huge when facing that team. One thing that is noteworthy is Louisville's struggles with getting their shot blocked, and going up against Mfiondu Kabingele and Christ Koumadje is not ideal for a team like that, as they both have top 100 block rates according to KenPom. Getting those blocks will allow Florida State to get out and run which is huge for them. They will need to be able to get those blocks to control the tempo, but I don't think they can get enough to knock off Jordan Nwora and the Cardinals.
- In arguably the biggest matchup of the season to date, Duke heads on the road to take on Virginia. The Blue Devils get a chance to sweep the Cavaliers, and a sweep of a fellow top 3 team would be absolutely huge, and Virginia has a huge chance to defend their home court against the Dukies and avenge the earlier loss, as well as silencing all the doubters who still remain after last season's tournament. After a 72-70 thriller in their last matchup, featuring two 27+ point performances from RJ Barrett and Zion Williamson. The thing that I am most interested in is getting to watch Duke with Tre Jones, as he was absent in the last matchup. I think he almost makes Kihei Clark unplayable for the Cavs, as he is 5'9" and he was awful in the last matchup against the size of Duke. Add in a 6'2" ball hawk who would be matched up with him, I would be very worried about playing him if I'm Tony Bennett. I would still lean Virginia in this one, and my reasoning here is pretty simple. In the last game, the Hoos only made 3 shots from behind the arc, and shot 17.6% from behind the arc, which is awful compared to the 39.4% they shoot on the year. I also think De'Andre Hunter will be all over RJ Barrett after RJ had 30 in the last matchup, and Hunter will surely be looking to cement himself as a top 5 pick in the NBA Draft, so I'll give Virginia the big home win.
- Virginia gets no rest, having to travel to Chapel Hill to play North Carolina just two days later. Clark will face another tough matchup in 6'5" point guard Coby White for the Tar Heels, and but I am less worried about him in this contest. White isn't the defender that Jones is, and Clark should be much better in this game. The biggest factor will be the pace, as North Carolina has one of the fastest in the nation, while the Cavs are notoriously slow. It's going to be very intriguing to see if North Carolina can speed up Virginia in a way that no other team has been able to. I don't think they can, and I don't think they can get stops defensively, as the Tar Heels have struggled on that end against elite competition. I think things are looking great for Virginia to come up with a big win against North Carolina.
Full ACC Schedule 2/5-2/11
2/5
Boston College @ Duke
Pittsburgh @ Wake Forest
North Carolina State @ North Carolina
Florida State @ Syracuse
2/6
Clemson @ Georgia Tech
Notre Dame @ Miami
2/9
Miami @ North Carolina
Virginia Tech @ Clemson
Boston College @ Syracuse
North Carolina State @ Pittsburgh
Louisville @ Florida State
Duke @ Virginia
2/10
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame
2/11
Virginia @ North Carolina
Tournament Tracker
Locks: Duke, Virginia
In a shocking twist, these two elite outfits are both locks for March. Duke has only lost to Gonzaga and Syracuse, while Virginia's only loss is to the Blue Devils, and both have great wins, so I'll say they will be absolute locks for a 1 or 2 seed in March.
In the Field: North Carolina, Louisville, Virginia Tech
You could make a very strong case for North Carolina being a lock, but I'm just not quite there yet. The 4 losses are one too many for me to elevate them to lock status right now. Louisville also has a large quantity of losses, sitting with 6, but they have wins over Michigan State, North Carolina, and Virginia Tech to headline a really strong resume that keeps them pretty clearly off the bubble. Finally, the Hokies have a really ugly loss to Penn State, but hold victories over Purdue as a headliner and every solid victories over Washington, Syracuse, and North Carolina State. These teams should all feel really good about their tournament chances and won't be sweating out on Selection Sunday.
Bubble: North Carolina State, Syracuse, Florida State, Clemson
Florida State is probably the safest of the group right now, but they could be slipping soon. The Purdue, LSU, and Florida wins from earlier in the year after a strong non-conference schedule, and would have been up a tier if not for losses to Pittsburgh and Boston College. With two big matchups this week, they could either elevate themselves to the tier above, or firmly put themselves on the bubble. The Wolfpack have also fallen to the bubble. They hold a win over Auburn, but other than that, they have no really impressive wins, and they have a losing record in ACC play with a loss to Wake Forest, and I am legit worried about the Pack right now. The Orange are the opposite of those two teams, surging to a 7-2 record in the ACC, with the best win in the country at Duke. Sure, losses to Oregon, UConn, Old Dominion, and Georgia Tech are bad, but the quantity of their wins in the ACC along with that Duke win, and a nice road win over Ohio State, has them looking good for March right now, although they have a tough stretch coming up. Finally, Clemson is holding onto their tournament hopes by the skin of their teeth. Their best win is over Lipscomb, but they have no bad losses, so they will need to get some big wins to get themselves into the tournament.
Out: Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech, Miami, Boston College, Notre Dame, Wake Forest
I really don't think any of these teams have hope, with the exception maybe being Pitt. While the Panthers are on a five game losing streak, they have victories over Louisville and Florida State, and they have a pretty easy next three games with a shot at North Carolina State, which would give them another solid victory. That Niagara loss is really dragging them down, so they need to knock off a few more big ACC names in order to get onto the bubble.
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