The SEC has been excellent in football since forever, but they have really emerged as a very good basketball conference over the past few years. Kentucky has always been good, but now schools like Tennessee, LSU, and Mississippi State are being talked about as prime time recruiting destinations, and traditional bottom feeders Mississippi and Georgia have bright futures with new head coaches. There are no easy games in the conference, and it constantly produces good games. Be sure to follow on Twitter for live game updates @ThreePointRange, where I'm always happy to talk SEC hoops.
Thoughts
- I wrote about the Big 12/SEC Challenge over the weekend, so for all my thoughts on that challenge, check it out here.
- Kentucky looks like a legitimate national title contender at the moment. The Wildcats have rounded into form, and they are currently on an 7 game winning streak. Their defense is much improved from earlier in the season, when it was a major question mark, and they are beginning to make their threes, adding a new, dangerous layer to their offensive attack. Tyler Herro has broken out of his early season slump, and he's proving to be more than just a shooter on the offensive end while providing great defense, and the rise of Ashton Hagans has been well chronicled. However, this is right around thew time of year where Kentucky slips up and drops a game they shouldn't. Over the past three seasons, the Cats have lost a game or two at the end of January or beginning of February, and here we are on February 2 with Kentucky still going strong. They travel to Florida today, which seems like a prime game for Jalen Hudson or KeVaughn Allen to randomly get red hot and knock off Kentucky. Of course, this team could buck that trend, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the Gators come away with a victory.
- A team just as hot as Kentucky is LSU, who sits undefeated in the SEC and currently riding a 10 game winning streak. It looks like all of the talent has finally figured out how to play together and Will Wade is beginning to work out the optimal lineup combinations as the season roles on. This run has been fueled by Tremont Waters looking like the star he was last season, and he looks like he's adjusted to this new team and is finally comfortable playing with his new teammates, and Naz Reid, the enigmatic big man, has still been inconsistent, but is playing much better when he can avoid foul trouble. The roster is filled with players who can score 10 points at the drop of a hat, and it looks as if they've been able to harness all that skill and turn into a legitimate contender.
- Florida and Mississippi was a very fun game, eventually heading into overtime on a wild KeVaughn Allen buzzer beater, where Florida prevailed 90-86. I don't think anybody is doubting the skill of Terence Davis and Breein Tyree in the backcourt for Mississippi, but I think the supporting cast was playing a bit above their skill level when Mississippi went on their run earlier this year, and they look much more pedestrian now, having lost three straight heading into a massive game against Mississippi State later today. As for Florida, Keyontae Johnson was a standout for me, showing off his freakish athleticism a few times, and he, along with fellow freshmen Andrew Nembhard and Noah Locke, look like excellent building blocks for Gators teams for the next few years, as well as being able to lead this team to the second weekend in March this season.
Power Rankings
1. Tennessee (1)
Record: 19-1, 7-0
2. Kentucky (2)
Record: 17-3, 6-1
3. LSU (3)
Record: 17-3, 7-0
4. Auburn (5)
Record: 14-6, 3-4
5. Mississippi State (7)
Record: 15-5, 3-4
6. Mississippi (4)
Record: 14-6, 4-3
7. Alabama (8)
Record: 13-7, 4-3
8. Florida (9)
Record: 12-8, 4-3
9. South Carolina (6)
Record: 10-10, 5-2
10. Arkansas (10)
Record: 12-8, 3-4
11. Missouri (11)
Record: 10-6, 1-6
12. Georgia (13)
Record: 10-10, 1-6
13. Vanderbilt (12)
Record: 9-11, 0-7
14. Texas A&M (14)
Record: 7-10, 1-5
What To Watch
- In the rematch of the Egg Bowl, Mississippi State looks to avenge a home loss earlier in the season when they head to Oxford to play the Rebels. A big key off the bat for this game is the health of Nick Weatherspoon. The Bulldogs' wing was injured in their last game against Alabama, and while the reports were positive, there has been no update on his status as of yet, and I would bet against him playing. That means Robert Woodard will likely be thrust into a larger role, and it will be interesting to see how the freshman reacts on the big stage. The big difference in the last matchup was Mississippi freshman Blake Hinson getting hot, scoring 26 points and making 5 threes, while the Rebels made 12 as a team. They have failed to make double digit threes in any of their five contests since, but I think with a raucous crowd, Ole Miss will feed off that energy and once again light it up from deep, leading them to sweep of their in-state rivals.
- I mentioned Kentucky's trip to Florida earlier as a potential upset based on historical trends alone, but I think there is real upset potential here. As I mentioned, Florida has Jalen Hudson and KeVaughn Allen who have inexplicably fallen off, but possess lots of scoring ability, and certainly could have a huge game on a big stage. The Gators also possess an excellent defensive, ranking tenth in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, and their full court action could rattle Kentucky's freshman backcourt. Turnovers have been a bit of an Achilles heel for the Wildcats this season, so that is certainly something to watch. It is worth noting that Kentucky's front court looks like it will cause Florida a lot of problems, with the Gators tending to play 6'5" Keyontae Johnson at the power forward spot, which won't work against PJ Washington. The Gators have been very vulnerable on the glass, and I fully expect Washington, Reid Travis, and the rest of the Wildcats to hit the glass hard and potentially get some easy buckets off of offensive rebounds. It figures to be a very close game, but for some reason, I really like Florida in my gut, so I'll say the Gators pull off a huge SEC upset.
- In another in-state rivalry, we'll be getting the Iron Bowl later today, with Alabama heading to Auburn. More known for the football rivalry between the two schools, this figures to be a very good game on the hardwood. The thing that immediately springs out to me is Auburn's defense, which excels at forcing turnovers, doing so at the best rate in the nation. I fully expect Jared Harper to be a pest on Kira Lewis all game, and I wonder how the 17 year old will handle the hostile crowd in a big rivalry game and intense defense. I also think it could be a tough game for guys on Alabama like Dazon Ingram who excel at getting to the rim, as Auburn has the best shot blocking teams in the nation, sending back the highest percentage of shots in the country. Finally, I think the Tigers will be able to exploit the Crimson Tide at the three point arc, as they have been shooting the ball well in conference play, leading the SEC in three point percentage, so I think Auburn takes this rivalry game fairly easily.
- Florida travels to Auburn to face the Tigers in one of the more interesting matchups in the SEC this week. It will be a battle of controlling the pace, as Auburn likes to play up tempo, while the Gators have one of the slowest paces in the country, averaging just 64 possessions a game. I really like the Florida press, since it does a very good job of slowing teams down after a Florida make, so I think they control the pace. That certainly doesn't guarantee them a victory, as despite their defensive strengths, they have struggled a bit in the half court on offense. One big plus is that unlike fellow freshman Kira Lewis, I don't think Andrew Nembhard will struggle with turnovers, as the floor general has generally been very good at limiting turnovers. The Gators have struggled to score inside the arc, and they won't be helped by the previously mentioned elite shot blocking Auburn front line. I think Auburn wins this one because of something I mentioned in the Kentucky preview: offensive rebounding. Chuma Okeke, and Anferenne McLemore attack the glass really hard for Auburn, and the team as a whole owns one of the best offensive rebounding percentages in the country, and I think they will be able to get enough of the misses forced by Florida's good defense to win this game.
- Red hot LSU will be in Starkville on Wednesday night to play Mississippi State. As I mentioned earlier, Nick Weatherspoon's health is a question mark, and his absence could prove costly in this contest. The key matchup to watch in this game is Tremont Waters versus Lamar Peters. Waters is one of the best in the nation at getting steals, and Peters has been known to have a bit of a loose handle, which could lead to some easy transition buckets for the Tigers. I actually think the injury to Weatherspoon could help the Bulldogs in this game by making them play bigger, which would help them sure up their spotty rebounding and potentially put Naz Reid in foul trouble, which would be a huge swing in the game, as he is such a threat offensively. It should be another close game in the SEC, but I like LSU to control the pace and use their multiple talented scorers in transition and get a big road victory.
Full SEC Schedule 2/2-2/8
2/2
South Carolina @ Georgia
Mississippi State @ Mississippi
Kentucky @ Florida
Arkansas @ LSU
Tennessee @ Texas A&M
Alabama @ Auburn
Vanderbilt @ Missouri
2/5
South Carolina @ Kentucky
Missouri @ Tennessee
Vanderbilt @ Arkansas
Florida @ Auburn
2/6
Texas A&M @ Mississippi
LSU @ Mississippi State
Georgia @ Alabama
Tournament Tracker
Locks: Tennessee, Kentucky
Both of these squads have sterling resumes, with both squads inside the top 10 on KenPom and the AP Poll (and my personal Top 25). The Vols have one loss on the season, to Kansas on a neutral court, and have beaten Louisville, Gonzaga, and Memphis, as well as being undefeated in conference play. As for Kentucky, they started off a bit rocky, with a blowout loss to Duke early in the year and losing to Seton Hall and Alabama, but they have won games against North Carolina, Louisville, Auburn, Mississippi State, and Kansas, and they will be dancing no matter what at this point.
In the Field: LSU, Auburn, Mississippi State
LSU has played their way off the bubble with a 10 game winning streak, and while their best win on KenPom is #40 Saint Mary's on a neutral, they also have wins over Alabama and Mississippi, who are both inside the top 50. They don't have a headlining win, and a neutral court loss to Oklahoma State isn't great, but truth be told, this is a solid resume that has a lot of potential to keep getting better. Auburn got a nice win over Washington that is aging really well, but they don't have any other good wins, and the South Carolina loss doesn't look great. They have lost to good teams, but they'll need to start picking up statement wins soon. The Bulldogs have beaten Auburn, which looks good, as well as Florida, Cincinnati, Clemson, and Wofford. They did lose to Arizona State, which hasn't aged well, and South Carolina, but the quality of their wins is more than good enough to have them in the field at this juncture.
Bubble: Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina
Mississippi has a good looking resume right now, with a non-conference win over Baylor really aging well, and wins over Auburn and Mississippi State. However, they are on a three game losing streak, and I'm more inclined to say this team is an 8 or 9 seed than a team I truly feel comfortable moving off the bubble right now, but they should make the jump soon. Alabama has losses to Northeastern, UCF, Georgia State, and Texas A&M, which are not things you want on your resume, but they also beat Kentucky, Mississippi, and Mississippi State, which has them firmly in the bubble picture. Florida doesn't have a truly bad loss, with South Carolina being the worst one, but they have no good wins either and did themselves no favors in the non-conference, with a split with Butler, losing on a neutral and winning at home representing their best results, along with a win over Mississippi. South Carolina turned things up in SEC, playing their way onto the bubble with wins over Florida, Mississippi State, and Auburn, but they also have losses against Stony Brook and a dreadful Wyoming team who is currently 322 on KenPom. They need a good deal more wins in conference play to get into the field, but they are certainly in the conversation now.
Out: Arkansas, Missouri, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M
Unfortunately, none of these teams will be appearing in March, Despite some of them having good wins, Georgia and Texas A&M beat better teams in the Big 12/SEC challenge recently, but they all have too many losses, especially inexcusable ones, to keep them in the tournament picture. I feel really bad for Vanderbilt, who was in a position to compete for a bid when Darius Garland went down with a season ending injury just 5 games into the season, and the Dores haven't recovered, and are currently winless in SEC play.
Thoughts
- I wrote about the Big 12/SEC Challenge over the weekend, so for all my thoughts on that challenge, check it out here.
- Kentucky looks like a legitimate national title contender at the moment. The Wildcats have rounded into form, and they are currently on an 7 game winning streak. Their defense is much improved from earlier in the season, when it was a major question mark, and they are beginning to make their threes, adding a new, dangerous layer to their offensive attack. Tyler Herro has broken out of his early season slump, and he's proving to be more than just a shooter on the offensive end while providing great defense, and the rise of Ashton Hagans has been well chronicled. However, this is right around thew time of year where Kentucky slips up and drops a game they shouldn't. Over the past three seasons, the Cats have lost a game or two at the end of January or beginning of February, and here we are on February 2 with Kentucky still going strong. They travel to Florida today, which seems like a prime game for Jalen Hudson or KeVaughn Allen to randomly get red hot and knock off Kentucky. Of course, this team could buck that trend, but I wouldn't be shocked to see the Gators come away with a victory.
- A team just as hot as Kentucky is LSU, who sits undefeated in the SEC and currently riding a 10 game winning streak. It looks like all of the talent has finally figured out how to play together and Will Wade is beginning to work out the optimal lineup combinations as the season roles on. This run has been fueled by Tremont Waters looking like the star he was last season, and he looks like he's adjusted to this new team and is finally comfortable playing with his new teammates, and Naz Reid, the enigmatic big man, has still been inconsistent, but is playing much better when he can avoid foul trouble. The roster is filled with players who can score 10 points at the drop of a hat, and it looks as if they've been able to harness all that skill and turn into a legitimate contender.
- Florida and Mississippi was a very fun game, eventually heading into overtime on a wild KeVaughn Allen buzzer beater, where Florida prevailed 90-86. I don't think anybody is doubting the skill of Terence Davis and Breein Tyree in the backcourt for Mississippi, but I think the supporting cast was playing a bit above their skill level when Mississippi went on their run earlier this year, and they look much more pedestrian now, having lost three straight heading into a massive game against Mississippi State later today. As for Florida, Keyontae Johnson was a standout for me, showing off his freakish athleticism a few times, and he, along with fellow freshmen Andrew Nembhard and Noah Locke, look like excellent building blocks for Gators teams for the next few years, as well as being able to lead this team to the second weekend in March this season.
Power Rankings
1. Tennessee (1)
Record: 19-1, 7-0
2. Kentucky (2)
Record: 17-3, 6-1
3. LSU (3)
Record: 17-3, 7-0
4. Auburn (5)
Record: 14-6, 3-4
5. Mississippi State (7)
Record: 15-5, 3-4
6. Mississippi (4)
Record: 14-6, 4-3
7. Alabama (8)
Record: 13-7, 4-3
8. Florida (9)
Record: 12-8, 4-3
9. South Carolina (6)
Record: 10-10, 5-2
10. Arkansas (10)
Record: 12-8, 3-4
11. Missouri (11)
Record: 10-6, 1-6
12. Georgia (13)
Record: 10-10, 1-6
13. Vanderbilt (12)
Record: 9-11, 0-7
14. Texas A&M (14)
Record: 7-10, 1-5
What To Watch
- In the rematch of the Egg Bowl, Mississippi State looks to avenge a home loss earlier in the season when they head to Oxford to play the Rebels. A big key off the bat for this game is the health of Nick Weatherspoon. The Bulldogs' wing was injured in their last game against Alabama, and while the reports were positive, there has been no update on his status as of yet, and I would bet against him playing. That means Robert Woodard will likely be thrust into a larger role, and it will be interesting to see how the freshman reacts on the big stage. The big difference in the last matchup was Mississippi freshman Blake Hinson getting hot, scoring 26 points and making 5 threes, while the Rebels made 12 as a team. They have failed to make double digit threes in any of their five contests since, but I think with a raucous crowd, Ole Miss will feed off that energy and once again light it up from deep, leading them to sweep of their in-state rivals.
- I mentioned Kentucky's trip to Florida earlier as a potential upset based on historical trends alone, but I think there is real upset potential here. As I mentioned, Florida has Jalen Hudson and KeVaughn Allen who have inexplicably fallen off, but possess lots of scoring ability, and certainly could have a huge game on a big stage. The Gators also possess an excellent defensive, ranking tenth in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, and their full court action could rattle Kentucky's freshman backcourt. Turnovers have been a bit of an Achilles heel for the Wildcats this season, so that is certainly something to watch. It is worth noting that Kentucky's front court looks like it will cause Florida a lot of problems, with the Gators tending to play 6'5" Keyontae Johnson at the power forward spot, which won't work against PJ Washington. The Gators have been very vulnerable on the glass, and I fully expect Washington, Reid Travis, and the rest of the Wildcats to hit the glass hard and potentially get some easy buckets off of offensive rebounds. It figures to be a very close game, but for some reason, I really like Florida in my gut, so I'll say the Gators pull off a huge SEC upset.
- In another in-state rivalry, we'll be getting the Iron Bowl later today, with Alabama heading to Auburn. More known for the football rivalry between the two schools, this figures to be a very good game on the hardwood. The thing that immediately springs out to me is Auburn's defense, which excels at forcing turnovers, doing so at the best rate in the nation. I fully expect Jared Harper to be a pest on Kira Lewis all game, and I wonder how the 17 year old will handle the hostile crowd in a big rivalry game and intense defense. I also think it could be a tough game for guys on Alabama like Dazon Ingram who excel at getting to the rim, as Auburn has the best shot blocking teams in the nation, sending back the highest percentage of shots in the country. Finally, I think the Tigers will be able to exploit the Crimson Tide at the three point arc, as they have been shooting the ball well in conference play, leading the SEC in three point percentage, so I think Auburn takes this rivalry game fairly easily.
- Florida travels to Auburn to face the Tigers in one of the more interesting matchups in the SEC this week. It will be a battle of controlling the pace, as Auburn likes to play up tempo, while the Gators have one of the slowest paces in the country, averaging just 64 possessions a game. I really like the Florida press, since it does a very good job of slowing teams down after a Florida make, so I think they control the pace. That certainly doesn't guarantee them a victory, as despite their defensive strengths, they have struggled a bit in the half court on offense. One big plus is that unlike fellow freshman Kira Lewis, I don't think Andrew Nembhard will struggle with turnovers, as the floor general has generally been very good at limiting turnovers. The Gators have struggled to score inside the arc, and they won't be helped by the previously mentioned elite shot blocking Auburn front line. I think Auburn wins this one because of something I mentioned in the Kentucky preview: offensive rebounding. Chuma Okeke, and Anferenne McLemore attack the glass really hard for Auburn, and the team as a whole owns one of the best offensive rebounding percentages in the country, and I think they will be able to get enough of the misses forced by Florida's good defense to win this game.
- Red hot LSU will be in Starkville on Wednesday night to play Mississippi State. As I mentioned earlier, Nick Weatherspoon's health is a question mark, and his absence could prove costly in this contest. The key matchup to watch in this game is Tremont Waters versus Lamar Peters. Waters is one of the best in the nation at getting steals, and Peters has been known to have a bit of a loose handle, which could lead to some easy transition buckets for the Tigers. I actually think the injury to Weatherspoon could help the Bulldogs in this game by making them play bigger, which would help them sure up their spotty rebounding and potentially put Naz Reid in foul trouble, which would be a huge swing in the game, as he is such a threat offensively. It should be another close game in the SEC, but I like LSU to control the pace and use their multiple talented scorers in transition and get a big road victory.
Full SEC Schedule 2/2-2/8
2/2
South Carolina @ Georgia
Mississippi State @ Mississippi
Kentucky @ Florida
Arkansas @ LSU
Tennessee @ Texas A&M
Alabama @ Auburn
Vanderbilt @ Missouri
2/5
South Carolina @ Kentucky
Missouri @ Tennessee
Vanderbilt @ Arkansas
Florida @ Auburn
2/6
Texas A&M @ Mississippi
LSU @ Mississippi State
Georgia @ Alabama
Tournament Tracker
Locks: Tennessee, Kentucky
Both of these squads have sterling resumes, with both squads inside the top 10 on KenPom and the AP Poll (and my personal Top 25). The Vols have one loss on the season, to Kansas on a neutral court, and have beaten Louisville, Gonzaga, and Memphis, as well as being undefeated in conference play. As for Kentucky, they started off a bit rocky, with a blowout loss to Duke early in the year and losing to Seton Hall and Alabama, but they have won games against North Carolina, Louisville, Auburn, Mississippi State, and Kansas, and they will be dancing no matter what at this point.
In the Field: LSU, Auburn, Mississippi State
LSU has played their way off the bubble with a 10 game winning streak, and while their best win on KenPom is #40 Saint Mary's on a neutral, they also have wins over Alabama and Mississippi, who are both inside the top 50. They don't have a headlining win, and a neutral court loss to Oklahoma State isn't great, but truth be told, this is a solid resume that has a lot of potential to keep getting better. Auburn got a nice win over Washington that is aging really well, but they don't have any other good wins, and the South Carolina loss doesn't look great. They have lost to good teams, but they'll need to start picking up statement wins soon. The Bulldogs have beaten Auburn, which looks good, as well as Florida, Cincinnati, Clemson, and Wofford. They did lose to Arizona State, which hasn't aged well, and South Carolina, but the quality of their wins is more than good enough to have them in the field at this juncture.
Bubble: Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina
Mississippi has a good looking resume right now, with a non-conference win over Baylor really aging well, and wins over Auburn and Mississippi State. However, they are on a three game losing streak, and I'm more inclined to say this team is an 8 or 9 seed than a team I truly feel comfortable moving off the bubble right now, but they should make the jump soon. Alabama has losses to Northeastern, UCF, Georgia State, and Texas A&M, which are not things you want on your resume, but they also beat Kentucky, Mississippi, and Mississippi State, which has them firmly in the bubble picture. Florida doesn't have a truly bad loss, with South Carolina being the worst one, but they have no good wins either and did themselves no favors in the non-conference, with a split with Butler, losing on a neutral and winning at home representing their best results, along with a win over Mississippi. South Carolina turned things up in SEC, playing their way onto the bubble with wins over Florida, Mississippi State, and Auburn, but they also have losses against Stony Brook and a dreadful Wyoming team who is currently 322 on KenPom. They need a good deal more wins in conference play to get into the field, but they are certainly in the conversation now.
Out: Arkansas, Missouri, Georgia, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M
Unfortunately, none of these teams will be appearing in March, Despite some of them having good wins, Georgia and Texas A&M beat better teams in the Big 12/SEC challenge recently, but they all have too many losses, especially inexcusable ones, to keep them in the tournament picture. I feel really bad for Vanderbilt, who was in a position to compete for a bid when Darius Garland went down with a season ending injury just 5 games into the season, and the Dores haven't recovered, and are currently winless in SEC play.
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