Top 25 Breakdown 2/18/19

There was a lot more movement near the top this week after some big time clashes this week, and I have a lot of thoughts after taking last week off for school stuff, so be sure to read my notes and all the rest of my conference breakdowns this week. I thought I had a pretty good feel for where a lot of teams were going to settle at this point, but I feel like I was way off on some teams, and now I'm reconsidered some things I previously took as fact. On another note, I may miss out on some of this Saturday's games since I will be in attendance to see Duke lose for a second time to Syracuse and given College GameDay will be there, it's an all day type event. Maybe I can win 19k this week, since I'm cash from deep. Not to brag, but I average 6.7 points a game and shoot 54.5% from three in Division 7 of the Syracuse Intramural Basketball B League. Coach Boeheim has yet to respond to my calls about being a bench shooter. Anyways, I always love to talk about my rankings on Twitter @ThreePointRange, so follow me there and be sure to let me know your thoughts.

Top 25
1. Duke (1)
Record: 23-2, 11-1
Last Week: W 71-69 @ Louisville, W 94-78 vs North Carolina State
This Week: 2/20 vs North Carolina, 2/23 @ Syracuse

2. Gonzaga (3)
Record: 25-2, 12-0
Last Week: W 73-60 @ Loyola Marymount, W 79-67 @ San Diego
This Week: 2/21 vs Pepperdine, 2/23 vs BYU

3. Virginia (5)
Record: 22-2, 10-2
Last Week: W 69-61 @ North Carolina, W 60-54 vs Notre Dame
This Week: 2/18 @ Virginia Tech, 2/23 @ Louisville

4. Kentucky (4)
Record: 21-4, 10-2
Last Week: W 73-71 vs LSU, W 86-69 vs Tennessee
This Week: 2/19 vs Missouri, 2/23 vs Auburn

5. Tennessee (2)
Record: 23-2, 11-1
Last Week: W 85-73 vs South Carolina, L 86-69 @ Kentucky
This Week: 2/19 vs Vanderbilt, 2/23 @ LSU

6. Michigan (6)
Record: 23-3, 12-3
Last Week: W 75-69 @ Penn State, W 65-52 vs Maryland
This Week: 2/21 @ Minnesota, 2/24 vs Michigan State

7. Michigan State (9)
Record: 21-5, 12-3
Last Week: W 67-59 @ Wisconsin, W 62-44 vs Ohio State
This Week: 2/20 vs Rutgers, 2/24 @ Michigan

8. Houston (8)
Record: 25-1, 12-1
Last Week: W 71-63 @ Connecticut, W 85-50 @ Tulane
This Week: 2/23 vs South Florida

9. North Carolina (7)
Record: 20-5, 10-2
Last Week: L 69-61 vs Virginia, W 95-57 @ Wake Forest
This Week: 2/20 @ Duke, 2/23 vs Florida State

10. LSU (13)
Record: 21-4, 11-1
Last Week: W 73-71 @ Kentucky, W 83-79 @ Georgia
This Week: 2/20 vs Florida, 2/23 vs Tennessee

11. Marquette (10)
Record: 21-4, 10-2
Last Week: W 92-73 @ DePaul
This Week: 2/20 vs Butler, 2/23 @ Providence

12. Nevada (11)
Record: 24-1, 11-1
Last Week: W 82-49 @ Wyoming
This Week: 2/20 @ San Diego State, 2/23 vs Fresno State

13. Iowa State (16)
Record: 19-6, 8-4
Last Week: W 78-64 @ Kansas State
This Week: 2/19 vs Baylor, 2/23 @ TCU

14. Purdue (12)
Record: 18-7, 11-3
Last Week: L 70-56 @ Maryland, W 76-64 vs Penn State
This Week: 2/19 @ Indiana, 2/23 @ Nebraska

15. Kansas (15)
Record: 20-6, 9-4
Last Week: W 82-77 (OT) vs TCU, W 78-53 vs West Virginia
This Week: 2/23 @ Texas Tech

16. Buffalo (20)
Record: 22-3, 10-2
Last Week: W 76-70 @ Akron, W 88-82 @ Toledo
This Week: 2/19 vs Ohio, 2/22 vs Kent State

17. Texas Tech (23)
Record: 21-5, 9-4
Last Week: W 78-50 @ Oklahoma State, W 86-61 vs Baylor
This Week: 2/23 vs Kansas

18. Virginia Tech (17)
Record: 20-5, 9-4
Last Week: W 76-68 vs Georgia Tech, W 70-64 @ Pittsburgh
This Week: 2/18 vs Virginia, 2/23 @ Notre Dame

19. Iowa (18)
Record: 20-5, 9-5
Last Week: W 71-69 @ Rutgers
This Week: 2/19 vs Maryland, 2/22 vs Indiana

20. Villanova (14)
Record: 20-6, 11-2
Last Week: W 85-67 vs Providence, L 71-65 @ St. John's
This Week: 2/20 @ Georgetown, 2/24 @ Xavier

21. Florida State (25)
Record: 20-5, 8-4
Last Week: W 88-66 vs Wake Forest, W 69-47 @ Georgia Tech
This Week: 2/19 @ Clemson, 2/23 @ North Carolina

22. Wisconsin (19)
Record: 17-8, 9-5
Last Week: L 67-59 vs Michigan State
This Week: 2/18 vs Illinois, 2/23 @ Northwestern

23. Maryland (26)
Record: 19-6, 10-5
Last Week: W 70-56 vs Purdue, L 65-52 @ Michigan
This Week: 2/19 @ Iowa, 2/23 vs Ohio State

24. Mississippi State (28)
Record: 18-7, 6-6
Last Week: W 81-62 vs Alabama, W 77-67 @ Arkansas
This Week: 2/20 @ Georgia, 2/23 vs South Carolina

25. Kansas State (21)
Record: 19-6, 9-3
Last Week: W 71-64 @ Texas, L 78-64 vs Iowa State
This Week: 2/18 @ West Virginia, 2/23 vs Oklahoma State

Next 5
26. Louisville (24)
Record: 18-8, 9-4
Last Week: L 71-69 vs Duke, W 56-55 vs Clemson
This Week: 2/20 @ Syracuse, 2/23 vs Virginia

27. Auburn (22)
Record: 17-8, 6-6
Last Week: L 60-55 vs Mississippi, W 64-53 @ Vanderbilt
This Week: 2/20 vs Arkansas, 2/23 @ Kentucky

28. Washington (27)
Record: 20-5, 11-1
Last Week: W 72-70 @ Washington State
This Week: 2/20 vs Utah, 2/23 vs Colorado

29. Cincinnati (30)
Record: 21-4, 10-2
Last Week: W 72-62 vs Wichita State
This Week: 2/21 vs UCF, 2/24 @ Connecticut

30. Wofford (NR)
Record: 23-4, 15-0
Last Week: W 95-84 vs VMI, W 80-50 vs UNC Greensboro
This Week: 2/23 @ Furman

Previously Ranked: Baylor (29)

Also Considered: Baylor, Lipscomb, Mississippi, North Carolina State, St. John's, VCU

Notes

- A lot of you may have not seen Gonzaga play in a while, but that doesn't mean the Bulldogs aren't an elite outfit. Let's not forget they beat Duke earlier this season, and they haven't lost since they traveled to Chapel Hill mid-December. While the WCC isn't the best conference in the country, there are multiple tough games, including two other teams in the KenPom top 50, and two more on top of that in the top 100. Yet the Zags haven't lost, although they still have 4 conference games left, including a home tilt against BYU this week and a road trip to Saint Mary's to close out their regular season. Brandon Clarke and Rui Hachimura is the best front court in the country, and Josh Perkins is having an excellent season, which has to make you feel good about their chances come March. They are an incredibly dangerous team that some people have certainly forgotten about given their conference, but this is a title contender.

- Tennessee is in a very precarious situation right now. Despite owning one of the best records, and let's not kid ourselves here, one of the best teams in the nation, they have reason to concern. Prior to Saturday, they hadn't played any really good teams since they beat Gonzaga on December 9, and it showed, as they got run off the court by Kentucky. I dropped them to 5, below the Wildcats, despite Kentucky losing in the same week, and some people might be mad about that, but did you see that game? This team in not better than Kentucky right now, and a 2 point controversial loss to LSU is not the same as a 17 blowout after beating up inferior competition. The Volunteers coasted through a very easy stretch, and they'll pay for it down the stretch, as after their game on Tuesday against Vanderbilt, they have an absolutely brutal stretch against 5 teams I at least consider for the rankings, with Mississippi being the "easy" matchup, including a trip to LSU and a rematch against Kentucky. They could really drop out of that elite tier, since they certainly didn't look like a title contender on Saturday. (Disclaimer: They definitely are, but they have to prove to me that they can beat good competition again after that performance)

- Michigan State is the team I think I have overrated, but honestly, I don't know what to do about it. They got two good wins this week, including over a ranked Wisconsin team, but they lost Nick Ward in their victory Sunday for an undisclosed amount of time, on top of missing Joshua Langford for the year. Yet, they looked really good even without him, locking down Ohio State in the second half after he went out. Now, I don't think this team is better without him, although he has some defensive limitations, but they still have talent, but I'm certainly worried about their depth now. I think they could get exposed against Michigan on Sunday, and they shouldn't look past the Rutgers game either.

- I've moved Iowa State back up mostly because I think they are the best team in the Big 12. They have a level which no other team can approach on the offensive end, and they showed that when they took down first place Kansas State on Saturday. They made 14 threes and looked like an elite offensive unit. Now, they can have off days, especially defensively (TCU loss a week prior), but I really like the Cyclones and I think they are one of the best teams in the country, even if they have some flaws. 

- Buffalo beat Akron and Toledo this week, and those results are nothing to scoff at. While they may not have the name brand of a team like Providence, who Villanova beat, I think both of them are better than the Friars. The MAC is very good, and people don't really know about it, so I think they underrate Buffalo a little bit. I don't know how anyone who has seen the Bulls play can dispute they ability, and while their big wins haven't aged well, West Virginia has been awful and Syracuse is inconsistent as hell, they probably would have beaten Marquette if Markus Howard hadn't gone nuclear. They have dropped two conference road games to KenPom top 150 teams, and had they lost to San Diego State and Rutgers on the road, two teams ranked right around Northern Illinois and Bowling Green, we'd be hearing about how those are tough places to play especially in conference games and Buffalo has nothing to be ashamed of for losing. I believe they are still a sneaky Final Four pick and people need to stop sleeping on the Bulls.

- Villanova dropped 6 spots, and that really has more to do with the teams ahead of them, since I couldn't really justify putting any of them lower than I have them. Also, I think Villanova is more of a 15-20 team talent wise, so this just felt like a course correction for me. I'm also probably overreacting a little bit to the collapse against St. John's, since I'm writing this on Sunday night and that is fresh in my mind. Still, this team is a lot better than they showed earlier in the year, and if anyone thinks this team isn't good because of those early season losses against Penn and Furman, they are wrong, and the Wildcats will once again be a threat in March. 

- Mississippi State and Auburn are in very similar places. The metrics like them both(MSU is 23 on KenPom and 27 in the NET, Auburn is 16 and 24), and yet, they sit at .500 in SEC play and consistently put in unconvincing performances. To be fair to them, they've had grueling schedules, and outside of South Carolina, have no really bad losses in conference play. Still, it is worrisome to see these really talented teams struggling with Alabama and Mississippi, who while tough opponents, are by no means on the same level in my mind. The good news: their upcoming schedules aren't too scary, so they can both make those conference records look more respectable and win some games against the bottom of the conference.

- Kansas State isn't that good. Sorry to all the fans of the Wildcats, but I really just don't see it with this team. Now, I've been wrong about teams before, I was super out on Purdue for a while, but I was all over Furman (remember when they were ranked? lol), Oklahoma, and Ohio State, all of whom have really regressed since their early season highs. And I mean listen, this is an elite defensive team, and they can shut down even the best of offenses. But, their best player, Dean Wade, is injury prone and is going to miss another game after sustaining an injury in their loss to Iowa State, and without him, they are lost offensively. It's not like with him their a juggernaut either, as they lost 47-46 to Tulsa with him, and scored under a point per possession against the 335 defense in the country (Denver). They've scored 75 points or more once in 2019, and I just don't think their offense is good enough, plain and simple, to be the Big 12 champion or go on a deep run come March.

- Wofford is into my Next 5, and quite honestly, 30 might be too low. They are one of the two undefeated teams in conference play, and I have the other one at 2. The next best team in their conference in UNC Greensboro, they beat them by 29 and 30. East Tennessee State? Swept as well. Furman, who beat Villanova? Took them down at home and will be going for the sweep this Saturday. Let's not forget they did what Florida, Mississippi State, and Auburn couldn't do and beat South Carolina, on the road and by 20 no less. Their worst loss? Oklahoma on the road by 11. Biggest margin of defeat? On the road against a full strength Kansas team. The metrics also love this team, with KenPom having them at 28 and the NET at 29. They have the thirteenth best offense according to Mister Pomeroy, led by Fletcher Magee. He is probably the best shooter in the country, having made 121 threes this season, most in the country, and although it's a long shot, if he gets hot down the stretch, he might break the all time single season record after falling 14 short last season. You might have seen the current record holder in the Three Point Contest this weekend effortlessly making 10 straight threes or perhaps throwing a sky high alley-oop bounce pass to Giannis (It's Steph Curry). He's also 33 away from the all time record, and he should be able to get there by the seasons end. This team could crack my top 25 next week.

Schedule

2/18
#3 Virginia @ #18 Virginia Tech
Illinois @ #22 Wisconsin
2/19
#14 Purdue @ Indiana
#23 Maryland @ #19 Iowa
#21 Florida State @ Clemson
Also Considered Baylor @ #13 Iowa State
2/20
Rutgers @ #7 Michigan State
#26 Louisville @ Syracuse
Florida @ #10 LSU
#9 North Carolina @ #1 Duke
Butler @ #11 Marquette
# 12 Nevada @ San Diego State
2/21
#6 Michigan @ Minnesota
UCF @ #29 Cincinnati
2/22
Kent State @ #16 Buffalo
Indiana @ #19 Iowa
2/23
#5 Tennessee @ #10 LSU
#3 Virginia @ #26 Louisville
#27 Auburn @ #4 Kentucky
#13 Iowa State @ TCU
Ohio State @ #23 Maryland
#21 Florida State @ #9 North Carolina
#30 Wofford @ Furman
#1 Duke @ Syracuse
Fresno State @ #12 Nevada
#15 Kansas @ #17 Texas Tech
Seton Hall @ Also Considered St. John's
BYU @ #2 Gonzaga
2/24
#7 Michigan State @ #6 Michigan