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Big East Breakdown 2/10/19

Thoughts
- Butler is a really interesting team to watch. I really like the Bulldogs, and their roster is more talented than their record would indicate. They've got Kamar Baldwin, one of the top scorers in the conference, Jordan Tucker, a versatile forward and Duke transfer, two sharpshooters in Paul Jorgensen and Sean McDermott, and a solid group of role players. However, they've struggled to win games consistently, seemingly taking a step back for every one they take forward. They have won two straight games now, beating Seton Hall and Georgetown, but that comes on the heels of a three game losing streak when they missed huge opportunities to get wins over Marquette and Villanova at home or Creighton on the road. This week, they take on St. John's on the road and DePaul at home. They can't suffer a letdown from their winning streak as they look to continue to build their tournament resume.

- Xavier has been one of the most disappointing teams in the nation for me this year. I know they lost really good players in Trevion Bluiett and JP Macura as well as their coach Chris Mack, but they had multiple players who looked like they were ready for breakout seasons and some talented grad transfer ready to contribute under longtime Mack assistant Travis Steele. But nothing has gone right for the Musketeers this year, and they currently are at the bottom of the Big East just a year after winning it. Naji Marshall, Paul Scruggs, Quentin Goodin, and Tyrique Jones all looked poised to be quality contributors this year, but none of them have been consistent this year and they are all liabilities on the defensive end. Throw in San Jose State transfer Ryan Welage struggling to shoot and no one else stepping up to be a consistent player for X, especially defensively, where they've been bad, and it's no wonder this team is struggling so badly. They've lost their last six contests, and they may not win a game the rest of the season given their tough remaining schedule. The same core will be in place next season, so Steele will need to figure out how to get the best out of this team over the offseason if he hopes to turn things around in Cincinnati.

- Marquette lost to St. John's for the second time this season earlier in the week, but they got a big win over Villanova on Saturday. I predicted a Marquette win in my preview, but I got the reasoning completely wrong. I said that I thought the team who made the most threes would win the game, yet that didn't happen, as Nova made two more shots from behind the arc than Marquette. The Golden Eagles actually struggled a bit, as neither Hauser brother made a three, and they combined for just three points, and Theo John, who has been a key piece in the front court this year, did not look good in this game. Instead, Markus Howard decided to take over, scoring 38 points, and he guided the Golden Eagles to a victory. The other key to victory for Marquette was Sacar Anim besting Eric Paschall, especially when the Golden Eagles had the ball, scoring 18 points, his second highest total of the year, and he is playing his basketball of the season right now. Villanova has nothing to be ashamed of, as they didn't have their best shooting day and still almost pulled off a win, and getting good performances out of Saddiq Bey and Jermaine Samuels will surely make Jay Wright happy and help the Wildcats going forward.

- In a huge bubble class, Seton Hall defended their home court against Creighton. I predicted a Creighton win since I didn't trust the Pirates making shots from three, which was right, but I didn't account for free throw line, where Seton Hall went 16-20 and that was the biggest difference. This was a huge win for the Pirates, as they simultaneously strengthened their own resume while handing a rival on the bubble a loss. The Blue Jays really got screwed on the call at the end of the game against Marquette in which it looked like Sam Hauser didn't get a shot off in time, but it was ruled he did, sending the game to over time and Creighton lost. That would've given them a really good win, which they have yet to get, and they will need to beat the Golden Eagles on the road now to get one. I also want to shout out one of my favorite players, Martin Krampelj, who had 25 and 11 in the loss for Creighton, and continues to be an excellent big man.

Power Rankings
1. Villanova (1)
Record: 19-5, 10-1

2. Marquette (2)
Record: 20-4, 9-2

3. St. John's (3)
Record: 17-7, 5-6

4. Butler (5)
Record: 14-10, 5-6

5. Seton Hall (6)
Record: 14-9, 5-6

6. Creighton (4)
Record: 13-11, 4-7

7. Georgetown (7)
Record: 15-9, 5-6

8. DePaul (8)
Record: 13-9, 5-6

9. Providence (9)
Record: 14-10, 4-7

10. Xavier (10)
Record: 11-13, 3-8

What to Watch
- Marquette heads to Chicago to play DePaul. In years past, this would've been an easy trip for the Golden Eagles, but this is a massively improved Blue Demons team and they should give Marquette a challenge. However, I still think this will be a fairly easy win for the Golden Eagles. The biggest weakness for DePaul's defense is the three point line, and as I'm sure you know, Marquette is early from behind the arc, shooting 39.5% from three, twelfth best in the country. That seems like a bad thing for DePaul, and there is also the problem of opposing team's torching the Blue Demons at the free throw line, where Markus Howard thrives, so he should have another big game. Offensively, I don't think Max Strus, Paul Reed, and the rest of the team will have an easy time, although they won't be completely shut down but this team. They struggle from deep on the whole, and Marquette does a pretty good job defending the arc, so they will hold a massive advantage at the three point line, and that will propel them to a victory.

- The game between Butler and St. John's holds massive bubble implications. As of this writing, they are 51 and 52 respectively in KenPom, and a win for both teams would go a long way for their tournament hopes. St. John's won the last meeting between these two teams 80-71 on the road, and if they could get a season sweep, it would be huge. Butler actually played really well in the last matchup, out rebounding the Johnnies and shooting 44% from three. If that happens again, I think that the Bulldogs win. They need more of an output from people not named Kamar Baldwin and Jordan Tucker, as they had a combined 54 points last time out, and were the only two players in double digits. I think that if someone like Paul Jorgensen can have a solid game, contributing like 12 points and a few made threes, then it will be a Butler victory.

- Georgetown has been one of the surprise teams in the Big East for me this season, and they head to Newark to play Seton Hall this week. Both of these teams like to play fast, so it should be a high scoring affair. The battle between James Akinjo and Quincy McKnight could very well decide this game, as the two point guards are huge parts of their team. If one can force the other into lots of turnovers and take them out of their offensive flow, their team will have an advantage. I think McKnight is the better defender and Seton Hall is the better overall defensive team, plus they have the game's best player in Myles Powell, so I give the edge to the Pirates at home.

Full Big East Schedule 2/10-2/16
2/12
Marquette @ DePaul
Butler @ St. John's
2/13
Providence @ Villanova
Creighton @ Xavier
Georgetown @ Seton Hall
2/16
Xavier @ Providence
DePaul @ Butler

Tournament Tracker
Locks: Villanova, Marquette
Despite both of these teams losing once this week, they are still locks to make it into March. The rest of the Big East, sans St. John's, field hasn't given either one of these teams too much of a problem, and they look like they will coast comfortably into their the Big Dance.

In the Field: N/A

Bubble: St. John's, Butler, Seton Hall, Creighton
I discussed the other three bubble teams earlier, so I'll focus on the Johnnies. St. John's continues to be one of the most puzzling teams in the country. As I'm sure most of you know, the Red Storm started off the season undefeated through non-conference play before losing to Seton Hall in controversial fashion in their conference opener. They have been streaky at best since then, sitting at 5-5 since that loss, but they did sweep Marquette, which is absolutely huge for their tournament hopes, as their best win in the non-conference was VCU. They still aren't safely in the field yet, but with their three toughest test against Butler, Villanova, and Seton Hall all coming at home, they could be in the field sooner rather than later.

Out: Georgetown, DePaul, Providence, Xavier
Georgetown is a team that is much better than their resume. Talent wise, they aren't that much worse than a team like Creighton, but they are a lot further away from the tournament than the Blue Jays. They have no KenPom top 50 wins, and their non-conference slate leaves a lot to be desired, with their best win coming over Liberty, and they have ugly losses to SMU and Loyola-Marymount that basically killed their tournament chances. They would have to beat Villanova and Marquette to get back onto the bubble, and would have to almost win out to become a tournament team, at least in my opinion.

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