Thoughts
- Michigan State is really missing Joshua Langford right now. The talented wing is out for the season, and that has really hurt Michigan State over their three game losing streak. Against Purdue, it was clear they missed his scoring from the wing position and Kyle Ahrens has regressed back to the mean after a strong start in the starting lineup. Long term, I still think they'll be OK, since the defense has remained good and Cassius Winston and Nick Ward is still one of the best one-two punches in the nation. However, they have now lost three straight after losing to Illinois, and I've started to get worried about this team's tournament chances.
- Northwestern has been a pretty big disappointment to me. Kevin Sweeney, @CBBCentral on Twitter, has done an excellent job breaking down the Wildcats' recent struggle, and I recommend everyone checks that out. He does excellent work, and being at the school, he has a great perspective on the team. It's pretty clear that their offense is absolutely dreadful, and Vic Law's injury has been a huge problem for them. They also don't really have a point guard, which is obviously not a good thing, with Anthony Gaines and Ryan Greer getting most of the minutes there, along with AJ Turner who is miscast in that role. Ryan Taylor has also been very disappointing as a grad transfer, never really getting going since he transferred from Evansville. I thought they could be a tournament team this season, but they are clearly a Big Ten bottom feeder this year.
- Michigan lost at Iowa recently, but I'm not really worried about the Wolverines yet. Both Jon Teske and Isaiah Livers were both in foul trouble throughout the game, thrusting Brandon Johns, Austin Davis, and Ignas Brazdeikis in major minutes in the front court. None of them are good enough post defenders to guard Luka Garza or Ryan Kriener, which was the death knell for the Wolverines in this matchup. I really think this speaks more to how good Iowa is than anything with Michigan. The Hawkeyes have anemergingc star in Joe Wieskamp, a formidable front court in Garza and Tyler Cook, some knockdown shooters in Jordan Bohannon and Isaiah Moss, and solid depth, making them a severely underrated team in my opinion, and they proved their worth with this victory.
- One of the games I previewed last week that I missed on was Maryland at Wisconsin. I thought the front court of the Terrapins would be able stifle Ethan Happ, but boy, was I wrong. Happ had another insane stat line, posting 18 points, 11 points, 6 assists, 2 blocks, and 2 steals. To be fair, Bruno Fernando only played 25 minutes due to foul trouble, but Happ was still exemplary when he was on the floor. His strong performance, partnered with Brad Davison having one of his best performances of the season with 21 points on 4 made threes, carried the Badgers to an 8 point home victory. One thing to notice for Maryland was the really strong play of Eric Ayala. The freshman has taken on the majority of ball handling duties, moving Antony Cowan off the ball to be more of a pure scorer, but it was Ayala who led the way for the Terps in this one. He scored 18 points, and did damage from behind the arc, going 4-5 from deep. He has been really solid all season for Maryland, and if he can keep up this level of play, he'll make this Maryland team even better.
Power Rankings
1. Michigan (2)
Record: 21-2, 10-2
2. Purdue (3)
Record: 16-6, 9-2
3. Michigan State (1)
Record: 18-5, 9-3
4. Wisconsin (5)
Record: 16-6, 8-3
5. Maryland (4)
Record: 17-6, 8-4
6. Iowa (6)
Record: 17-5, 6-5
7. Minnesota (7)
Record: 16-6, 6-5
8. Ohio State (8)
Record: 14-7, 4-6
9. Indiana (10)
Record: 13-9, 4-7
10. Nebraska (9)
Record: 13-9, 3-8
11. Rutgers (12)
Record: 11-11, 4-8
12. Illinois (13)
Record: 8-15, 4-8
13. Northwestern (11)
Record: 12-10, 3-8
14. Penn State (14)
Record: 8-14, 1-10
What to Watch
- Wisconsin travels to the Barn to play Minnesota later tonight in an interesting clash. The obvious matchup that stands out is Ethan Happ versus Jordan Murphy. Murphy is one of the best players in the nation at getting fouled, drawing 7.1 fouls per 40 minutes, and if he can get Happ into foul trouble, then the Badgers will have a massive advantage. Another thing to watch is that I think the Badgers match up pretty poorly in general with Minnesota on the defensive end. Amir Coffey has been running with Amir Coffey as the point guard, and he stands at 6'8", and I guess Wisconsin will put Khalil Iverson on him, but Gabe Kalscheur and Dupree McBreyer are both 6'4" or taller, and Wisconsin has D'Mitrik Trice who plays major minutes, but is just 6'0". I'm unsure who he is going to guard, and I think Nate Reuvers is a bad matchup for Eric Curry and Daniel Oturu, two physical big men who I think will be able to dominate Reuvers physically, especially on the glass. That's not to say Wisconsin doesn't have a chance. They have an excellent shooting team who can light up a Minnesota team that isn't very good defending the three point line. However, I think the biggest advantage is Minnesota's size, and Wisconsin already struggles on the boards, so I'll say the Golden Gophers pull out an upset victory.
- Wisconsin has another tough test on the road when they travel to Michigan. The Badgers handed the Wolverines their first loss back in mid-January, and I'm sure John Beilein will have his team raring to go for this one. The two keys to me are on the Michigan side. In their last meeting, the Wolverines were sloppy with the ball, tying their season high with 16 turnovers, and guards Zavier Simpson and Jordan Poole each committed three turnovers. Poole had a bad game overall, committing four fouls and really struggled to score in the second half. The other key for the Wolverines is stopping Ethan Happ, who had one of his finest games, with 26 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists to lead the Badgers to a 10 point victory. In theory, Jon Teske should be able to stop him, as one of the premier defensive big men in the country. However, he got carved up last time, so he will need to have a much better performance this time out if the Wolverines hope to win. He did have 4 blocks, but on the whole, Happ got the better of him more often that not. I do think Michigan has a very good chance, especially at home, but it is very hard to separate these two teams. In the end, I believe whichever team makes more threes will win, and I'll say that's Michigan in this contest.
- Minnesota visits a struggling Michigan State team this weekend. As I mentioned earlier, the Spartans are on a three game losing streak, and the Golden Gophers will certainly be a tough test. I think that this game will actually not be as close as it initially seems. To me, the Spartans should run away with this game. They hold advantages all over the court, with superior three point shooting, defense, and rebounding. Jordan Murphy is one of the best and most physical players in the nation, but the Spartans have Nick Ward, Kenny Goins, and Xavier Tillman who can compete with him physically. They also have the best two point defense in the nation, holding opponents to a 40.2% shooting percentage, and that is where Minnesota is at their best. While I think Amir Coffey can do a good job defensively on Cassius Winston, we've seen Cassius have red hot stretches where it doesn't matter who is guarding him, and I think Matt McQuaid and Kyle Ahrens will knock down more threes than they have been. I believe this will be a big bounceback game for Michigan State, and they get a nice win.
- Perhaps the game I am most interested in in the Big Ten this week is Ohio State at Indiana. Both of these teams are really struggling, and a win would be huge for their team. After a five game losing streak, the Buckeyes have won two of their last three games, while Indiana just pulled out a big win over Michigan State as detailed earlier. I am really interested by the matchup between freshmen Romeo Langford and Luther Muhammad. Langford is one of the most talented scorers in the country, although he doesn't shoot well from three, but nonetheless he is excellent at attacking the rim and finishing. However, Muhammad has been a very good defender during his time in Columbus and he has as good a chance as anyone to stop Romeo. Another big matchup, literally, is Kaleb Wesson against Juwan Morgan. The two big men are very talented, and both have a potential to get into foul trouble, so if one of them can stay on the court, then their team will have the advantage. For me, I think Muhammad holds the first advantage and Morgan in the second. I believe the Buckeyes have the better supporting cast, specifically shooting threes, so I'll say they win this game.
- Purdue will be in College Park to face Maryland in a super intriguing matchup. I think the key matchup comes in the front court, where Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith will be matched up against Grady Eifert, Trevion Williams, and Matt Haarms. Personally, I really like Maryland in that matchup, with Eifert not being as tall, Williams not being as mobile, and Haarms not being as strong as the two Maryland bigs. However, I really don't know how the Terrapins will stop Carsen Edwards, who is one of the most dynamic scorers in the country. Maybe Eric Ayala or Darryl Morsell will be able to guard him, but that doesn't seem very likely in my mind. However, that imposing front court full of shot blockers in Fernando and Smith could slow him down. I'm going to say the Boilermakers go down on the road.
- Michigan State has a big road test with Wisconsin coming up. It's a fascinating game, with Wisconsin already having knocked off Michigan at home, and they'll look to knock off the Spartans as well. I think Ethan Happ will have a big game in this one, as I think he will exploit Michigan State's front court with his craftiness. While Xavier Tillman and Kenny Goins are very good defenders, I think that Happ is on another level, and he can take it to the Spartans. When they bring double teams, Happ is a skilled passer and he can find Brad Davison and D'Mitrik Trice to hit open threes. I really don't know why, but I'm really on Wisconsin to win this game.
Full Big Ten Schedule 2/6-2/12
2/6
Maryland @ Nebraska
Wisconsin @ Minnesota
2/7
Penn State @ Ohio State
Iowa @ Indiana
2/9
Wisconsin @ Michigan
Minnesota @ Michigan State
Rutgers @ Illinois
Nebraska @ Purdue
2/10
Ohio State @ Indiana
Northwestern @ Iowa
2/12
Purdue @ Maryland
Michigan State @ Wisconsin
Michigan @ Penn State
Tournament Tracker
Locks: Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
I have moved Purdue up into the Lock tier, with the Boilermakers running on a seven game winning streak featuring wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State in that time. They have also knocked off Maryland and Iowa, and they have one iffy loss in Notre Dame on a neutral court, but for now, Purdue is certainly going to be in the tournament.
In the Field: Maryland, Wisconsin, Iowa
I have elevated Iowa into this tier, with a recent win over Michigan being a huge feather in the cap of the Hawkeyes going along with a nice win over Iowa State. I also think that Wisconsin is close to being a lock, also holding a win over Michigan as well as nice wins over Oklahoma, North Carolina State, Iowa, and Maryland, and while a road loss to Western Kentucky is bad, the Badgers resume is very similar to Purdue's, but I just think they have one or two more losses that I can't move them into the lock tier.
Bubble: Minnesota, Ohio State, Nebraska, Indiana
This tier is relatively unchanged, with one team jumping up and one team falling out. As I mentioned earlier, Ohio State plays Indiana this week, and that game is pretty massive. It gives each team a chance not only at a good win, but also a shot to knock off one of their rivals on the bubble. In many ways, it counts double, as they strengthen their own position while weakening that of their rival. It will be a game to watch in the Big Ten.
Out: Northwestern, Rutgers, Illinois, Penn State
Northwestern lost to Penn State, giving the Nittany Lions their first win of conference play, and that was enough for me to say that they will not be dancing this year. One team to keep an eye on is Illinois. They now have wins against Minnesota, Maryland, Nebraska, and Michigan State, and while they have a ton of losses, if they can find a way to keep knocking off top teams, they might just be able to work their way onto the bubble.
- Michigan State is really missing Joshua Langford right now. The talented wing is out for the season, and that has really hurt Michigan State over their three game losing streak. Against Purdue, it was clear they missed his scoring from the wing position and Kyle Ahrens has regressed back to the mean after a strong start in the starting lineup. Long term, I still think they'll be OK, since the defense has remained good and Cassius Winston and Nick Ward is still one of the best one-two punches in the nation. However, they have now lost three straight after losing to Illinois, and I've started to get worried about this team's tournament chances.
- Northwestern has been a pretty big disappointment to me. Kevin Sweeney, @CBBCentral on Twitter, has done an excellent job breaking down the Wildcats' recent struggle, and I recommend everyone checks that out. He does excellent work, and being at the school, he has a great perspective on the team. It's pretty clear that their offense is absolutely dreadful, and Vic Law's injury has been a huge problem for them. They also don't really have a point guard, which is obviously not a good thing, with Anthony Gaines and Ryan Greer getting most of the minutes there, along with AJ Turner who is miscast in that role. Ryan Taylor has also been very disappointing as a grad transfer, never really getting going since he transferred from Evansville. I thought they could be a tournament team this season, but they are clearly a Big Ten bottom feeder this year.
- Michigan lost at Iowa recently, but I'm not really worried about the Wolverines yet. Both Jon Teske and Isaiah Livers were both in foul trouble throughout the game, thrusting Brandon Johns, Austin Davis, and Ignas Brazdeikis in major minutes in the front court. None of them are good enough post defenders to guard Luka Garza or Ryan Kriener, which was the death knell for the Wolverines in this matchup. I really think this speaks more to how good Iowa is than anything with Michigan. The Hawkeyes have anemergingc star in Joe Wieskamp, a formidable front court in Garza and Tyler Cook, some knockdown shooters in Jordan Bohannon and Isaiah Moss, and solid depth, making them a severely underrated team in my opinion, and they proved their worth with this victory.
- One of the games I previewed last week that I missed on was Maryland at Wisconsin. I thought the front court of the Terrapins would be able stifle Ethan Happ, but boy, was I wrong. Happ had another insane stat line, posting 18 points, 11 points, 6 assists, 2 blocks, and 2 steals. To be fair, Bruno Fernando only played 25 minutes due to foul trouble, but Happ was still exemplary when he was on the floor. His strong performance, partnered with Brad Davison having one of his best performances of the season with 21 points on 4 made threes, carried the Badgers to an 8 point home victory. One thing to notice for Maryland was the really strong play of Eric Ayala. The freshman has taken on the majority of ball handling duties, moving Antony Cowan off the ball to be more of a pure scorer, but it was Ayala who led the way for the Terps in this one. He scored 18 points, and did damage from behind the arc, going 4-5 from deep. He has been really solid all season for Maryland, and if he can keep up this level of play, he'll make this Maryland team even better.
Power Rankings
1. Michigan (2)
Record: 21-2, 10-2
2. Purdue (3)
Record: 16-6, 9-2
3. Michigan State (1)
Record: 18-5, 9-3
4. Wisconsin (5)
Record: 16-6, 8-3
5. Maryland (4)
Record: 17-6, 8-4
6. Iowa (6)
Record: 17-5, 6-5
7. Minnesota (7)
Record: 16-6, 6-5
8. Ohio State (8)
Record: 14-7, 4-6
9. Indiana (10)
Record: 13-9, 4-7
10. Nebraska (9)
Record: 13-9, 3-8
11. Rutgers (12)
Record: 11-11, 4-8
12. Illinois (13)
Record: 8-15, 4-8
13. Northwestern (11)
Record: 12-10, 3-8
14. Penn State (14)
Record: 8-14, 1-10
What to Watch
- Wisconsin travels to the Barn to play Minnesota later tonight in an interesting clash. The obvious matchup that stands out is Ethan Happ versus Jordan Murphy. Murphy is one of the best players in the nation at getting fouled, drawing 7.1 fouls per 40 minutes, and if he can get Happ into foul trouble, then the Badgers will have a massive advantage. Another thing to watch is that I think the Badgers match up pretty poorly in general with Minnesota on the defensive end. Amir Coffey has been running with Amir Coffey as the point guard, and he stands at 6'8", and I guess Wisconsin will put Khalil Iverson on him, but Gabe Kalscheur and Dupree McBreyer are both 6'4" or taller, and Wisconsin has D'Mitrik Trice who plays major minutes, but is just 6'0". I'm unsure who he is going to guard, and I think Nate Reuvers is a bad matchup for Eric Curry and Daniel Oturu, two physical big men who I think will be able to dominate Reuvers physically, especially on the glass. That's not to say Wisconsin doesn't have a chance. They have an excellent shooting team who can light up a Minnesota team that isn't very good defending the three point line. However, I think the biggest advantage is Minnesota's size, and Wisconsin already struggles on the boards, so I'll say the Golden Gophers pull out an upset victory.
- Wisconsin has another tough test on the road when they travel to Michigan. The Badgers handed the Wolverines their first loss back in mid-January, and I'm sure John Beilein will have his team raring to go for this one. The two keys to me are on the Michigan side. In their last meeting, the Wolverines were sloppy with the ball, tying their season high with 16 turnovers, and guards Zavier Simpson and Jordan Poole each committed three turnovers. Poole had a bad game overall, committing four fouls and really struggled to score in the second half. The other key for the Wolverines is stopping Ethan Happ, who had one of his finest games, with 26 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists to lead the Badgers to a 10 point victory. In theory, Jon Teske should be able to stop him, as one of the premier defensive big men in the country. However, he got carved up last time, so he will need to have a much better performance this time out if the Wolverines hope to win. He did have 4 blocks, but on the whole, Happ got the better of him more often that not. I do think Michigan has a very good chance, especially at home, but it is very hard to separate these two teams. In the end, I believe whichever team makes more threes will win, and I'll say that's Michigan in this contest.
- Minnesota visits a struggling Michigan State team this weekend. As I mentioned earlier, the Spartans are on a three game losing streak, and the Golden Gophers will certainly be a tough test. I think that this game will actually not be as close as it initially seems. To me, the Spartans should run away with this game. They hold advantages all over the court, with superior three point shooting, defense, and rebounding. Jordan Murphy is one of the best and most physical players in the nation, but the Spartans have Nick Ward, Kenny Goins, and Xavier Tillman who can compete with him physically. They also have the best two point defense in the nation, holding opponents to a 40.2% shooting percentage, and that is where Minnesota is at their best. While I think Amir Coffey can do a good job defensively on Cassius Winston, we've seen Cassius have red hot stretches where it doesn't matter who is guarding him, and I think Matt McQuaid and Kyle Ahrens will knock down more threes than they have been. I believe this will be a big bounceback game for Michigan State, and they get a nice win.
- Perhaps the game I am most interested in in the Big Ten this week is Ohio State at Indiana. Both of these teams are really struggling, and a win would be huge for their team. After a five game losing streak, the Buckeyes have won two of their last three games, while Indiana just pulled out a big win over Michigan State as detailed earlier. I am really interested by the matchup between freshmen Romeo Langford and Luther Muhammad. Langford is one of the most talented scorers in the country, although he doesn't shoot well from three, but nonetheless he is excellent at attacking the rim and finishing. However, Muhammad has been a very good defender during his time in Columbus and he has as good a chance as anyone to stop Romeo. Another big matchup, literally, is Kaleb Wesson against Juwan Morgan. The two big men are very talented, and both have a potential to get into foul trouble, so if one of them can stay on the court, then their team will have the advantage. For me, I think Muhammad holds the first advantage and Morgan in the second. I believe the Buckeyes have the better supporting cast, specifically shooting threes, so I'll say they win this game.
- Purdue will be in College Park to face Maryland in a super intriguing matchup. I think the key matchup comes in the front court, where Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith will be matched up against Grady Eifert, Trevion Williams, and Matt Haarms. Personally, I really like Maryland in that matchup, with Eifert not being as tall, Williams not being as mobile, and Haarms not being as strong as the two Maryland bigs. However, I really don't know how the Terrapins will stop Carsen Edwards, who is one of the most dynamic scorers in the country. Maybe Eric Ayala or Darryl Morsell will be able to guard him, but that doesn't seem very likely in my mind. However, that imposing front court full of shot blockers in Fernando and Smith could slow him down. I'm going to say the Boilermakers go down on the road.
- Michigan State has a big road test with Wisconsin coming up. It's a fascinating game, with Wisconsin already having knocked off Michigan at home, and they'll look to knock off the Spartans as well. I think Ethan Happ will have a big game in this one, as I think he will exploit Michigan State's front court with his craftiness. While Xavier Tillman and Kenny Goins are very good defenders, I think that Happ is on another level, and he can take it to the Spartans. When they bring double teams, Happ is a skilled passer and he can find Brad Davison and D'Mitrik Trice to hit open threes. I really don't know why, but I'm really on Wisconsin to win this game.
Full Big Ten Schedule 2/6-2/12
2/6
Maryland @ Nebraska
Wisconsin @ Minnesota
2/7
Penn State @ Ohio State
Iowa @ Indiana
2/9
Wisconsin @ Michigan
Minnesota @ Michigan State
Rutgers @ Illinois
Nebraska @ Purdue
2/10
Ohio State @ Indiana
Northwestern @ Iowa
2/12
Purdue @ Maryland
Michigan State @ Wisconsin
Michigan @ Penn State
Tournament Tracker
Locks: Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue
I have moved Purdue up into the Lock tier, with the Boilermakers running on a seven game winning streak featuring wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State in that time. They have also knocked off Maryland and Iowa, and they have one iffy loss in Notre Dame on a neutral court, but for now, Purdue is certainly going to be in the tournament.
In the Field: Maryland, Wisconsin, Iowa
I have elevated Iowa into this tier, with a recent win over Michigan being a huge feather in the cap of the Hawkeyes going along with a nice win over Iowa State. I also think that Wisconsin is close to being a lock, also holding a win over Michigan as well as nice wins over Oklahoma, North Carolina State, Iowa, and Maryland, and while a road loss to Western Kentucky is bad, the Badgers resume is very similar to Purdue's, but I just think they have one or two more losses that I can't move them into the lock tier.
Bubble: Minnesota, Ohio State, Nebraska, Indiana
This tier is relatively unchanged, with one team jumping up and one team falling out. As I mentioned earlier, Ohio State plays Indiana this week, and that game is pretty massive. It gives each team a chance not only at a good win, but also a shot to knock off one of their rivals on the bubble. In many ways, it counts double, as they strengthen their own position while weakening that of their rival. It will be a game to watch in the Big Ten.
Out: Northwestern, Rutgers, Illinois, Penn State
Northwestern lost to Penn State, giving the Nittany Lions their first win of conference play, and that was enough for me to say that they will not be dancing this year. One team to keep an eye on is Illinois. They now have wins against Minnesota, Maryland, Nebraska, and Michigan State, and while they have a ton of losses, if they can find a way to keep knocking off top teams, they might just be able to work their way onto the bubble.
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