Power Rankings
1. Kansas
Record: 11-1
My Thoughts: The Jayhawks have been so weird this year. They have an excellent resume with wins over Michigan State, Marquette, Tennessee, Stanford, Wofford, New Mexico State, and Villanova, with a loss at Arizona State. They have one of the best players in the country in Dedric Lawson, they are top 15 in offensive and defensive efficiency, and yet they have been disappointing. They've won a lot of close games, and if you look at a lot of the numbers, they don't really shine at any one thing. Quentin Grimes has been flat out bad since the opening night against Michigan State, and I actually think his struggles have really impacted this team. They don't have a second wing scorer behind Lagerald Vick, who is shouldering an insane load, and without Udoka Azubuike, really only have 2 busy that can be counted on to get a bucket. I'm going to go in depth on this team later on, but for now, they have to be the favorite to win the Big 12 yet again.
2. Texas Tech
Record: 11-1
My Thoughts: The Red Raiders were a surprise team last year in the Big 12, and yet somehow everyone underestimated them again. Chris Beard has this team at 11-1, with their only loss coming to Duke on a neutral court, and they have beaten USC, Memphis, and Nebraska, all on neutral courts. They have the best defense in America, according to KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, and it is incredible to watch. They are the best in the country at defending the three point line, forcing teams into shooting 24.6% from deep thanks to high pressure defense. They also don't allow teams to get into the paint, as opponents shoot 37.9% on two pointers. They also force turnovers on nearly 25% of possessions, and I love watching their defense. On offense, they do struggle a little bit, and there have been stretches where they can't get a bucket, but the play of Jarrett Culver has been excellent. Culver has broken out as a sophomore, and he is so vital to this team, as he leads the team in points (19.6), rebounds (5.6), assists (4.3), and three point percentage (45.2%, min 20 attempts), and he has established himself as a lottery pick with his play this year.
3. Oklahoma
Record: 11-1
My Thoughts: The Sooners made a name for themselves last season as the place Trae Young was playing basketball. The dynamic point guard drew a lot of headlines, and he propelled them to national attention. However, they may be even better this year without Young, as they sit at 11-1 heading into conference play. They haven't been beating up on bad teams either, with every game since November 18 coming against one of the top 120 teams in KenPom. With wins over Wofford, Florida, Dayton, North Texas, Notre Dame, Wichita State, USC, Creighton, and Northwestern, with their only loss coming against Wisconsin, the Sooners sneakily have one of the best resumes in the nation. Unlike last year, Oklahoma has an elite defense, ranking eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they are really locking down on points inside the arc, with teams shooting 40.9% on twos this year. They also keep opponents off the foul line, and that has led to their opposition shooting 61.8% from the foul line. They go quickly on offense, and the play of Christan James, who is putting up 17.9 points and 7.2 rebounds, has helped them ascend to the top of the Big 12. They have been a surprise to me so far, and I see no reason why it can't continue.
4. TCU
Record: 11-1
My Thoughts: The Horned Frogs have slid under the radar all year, but they have just one loss on the year, at home to a very good Lipscomb team, and feature wins over Fresno State, SMU, USC, and Indiana State twice, the second time coming in the Diamond Head Classic final. Jamie Dixon has been linked to the UCLA opening, and it's well deserved. This is a very well coached team, rarely turning the ball over and taking a lot of good shots. They are also a very good defensive team, holding opponents from the three point line to making just 28.3% of their shots. The backcourt of Alex Robinson and Jaylen Fisher is really great and super underrated nationally, and I love this team and think they could finish even higher than this in the Big 12 and should be a top 25 team at the year's end.
5. Kansas State
Record: 10-2
My Thoughts: The Wildcats are one of my most disappointing teams so far this season. I expected a lot from them after an Elite Eight run last year and a strong returning core, but they haven't looked like the same team yet. With losses to Marquette and Tulsa, both on the road, and no real standout wins, with Missouri and Vanderbilt being the headliners so far, I just haven't seen it so far. They haven't been the same team on offense, with seemingly the entire team regressing on that end. They are really struggling from three, only making 31.3% of their attempts from behind the arc, and Barry Brown, Kamau Stokes, Xavier Sneed, and Cartier Diarra have all taken a step back on offense. They are still stout defensively, ranking second in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they do a very good job defending the arc, watching opponents shoot 27.4% from deep, and clean up those misses, as opponents get just 19.1% of offensive boards, the lowest rate in the nation. There is still a lot of potential here if they can straighten themselves out offensively, but it will be tough without star big man Dean Wade for the first month due to a foot injury.
6. Iowa State
Record: 10-2
My Thoughts: The Cyclones have been even better than I thought, as without Lindell Wigginton, Cameron Lard, and Solomon Young for most of the year, they are still 10-2. Nebraska transfer Michael Jacobsen has really stepped up as has Virginia transfer Marial Shayok, as they are the two leading scorers for Iowa State, combining for 35.5 points a game so far this year. They offense has been very good, thanks to limited turnovers and getting a lot of good looks. They are solid defensively, which is all they need to be given their offensive skill. I'm really interested to see how the rotation is adjusted to accommodate the three returning players, and this team could easily shoot up these rankings.
7. Texas
Record: 8-4
My Thoughts: I think a sneaky story in college hoops for 2019 is going to be Shaka Smart's job security. For all the success he has had recruiting, it hasn't really translated onto the court, as the Longhorns have made two tournaments in three years under Smart, and have no wins in March Madness. They have been inconsistent this year, with wins over Arkansas, North Carolina and Purdue, but losses to Michigan State, Radford, VCU, and Providence, three of which came at home. They are a top 10 defensive unit, largely thanks to their collection of athletic guards and bigs, most of whom thrive defensively. Unfortunately, seemingly none of those players are able to shoot the basketball. It is really incredible that no one on Texas had been able to shoot the basketball consistently from three in years. They shoot 32% as a team, and the leader in three point percentage is Jase Febres at 35%. When they can make their shots, like in the UNC game, they are very dangerous, but there is no signs of them being able to do that on any sort of consistent basis, so they will continue to struggle offensively.
8. West Virginia
Record: 8-4
My Thoughts: A team I had in my preseason top 25, the Mountaineers have really not figured things out yet this season. They really miss Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles, as the guard play has been bad on both ends. Offensively, West Virginia turns the ball over at one of the highest rates in the nation, while the vaunted press is nowhere near as good as it has been in year's past. It certainly doesn't help that star center Sagaba Konate has been battling injuries all season and has yet to consistently find the court. Without their press being able to force turnovers and rattle teams, they've watched as teams consistently break the press and get a quick and easy shot. Meanwhile, they have been objectively bad offensively, as most of their points come on offensive rebounds and free throws. If your best source of offense is missed shots, that is not ideal. Unlike some of the other teams ahead of them, I don't know if they can turn things around given the poor guard play that I don't think will change anytime soon.
9. Baylor
Record: 8-4
My Thoughts: Baylor is a team that absolutely no one wants to play. Why? They are a tough, gritty defensive team that will just beat you up on that end, and it's a grind it out type game that are awful to play in. Now, the Bears aren't the most talented team in the league, as proved by their losses to Texas Southern and Stephen F. Austin, but they are going to win some games. In their two high major wins over Arizona and Oregon, they held both teams under 50 points. When looking at this team, it's pretty clear why they are so good on the defensive end: going into the paint against the Bears is a bad idea. They hold opponents to 42.5% shooting from two, and they are blocking 19.2% of those shots. The main catalyst is Tristian Clark, who is quietly one of the best big men in the country. He is blocking 2.8 shots a game and has the 26th best block rate in the nation according to KenPom. He is also leading the team with 14.3 points a game on 78% shooting, which is third best in the country. He also grabs 6.5 rebounds. Outside of him though, the offense isn't great. Like Texas, they cannot shoot, making just 29% of their threes as a team, one of the worst marks in the entire country. They are also struggling with turnovers, but they are going to knock off a more talented team with their tough, defensive mentality.
10. Oklahoma State
Record: 6-6
My Thoughts: I want to get this out of the way: Oklahoma State is likely not going to be very good this year. That being said, I love this team. They play a very aesthetically pleasing style, getting up and down the court and taking a lot of threes. It's quite simply fun to watch, and really, isn't that why we all love this sport? Because it's fun? Does that style of play lead to too many turnovers? Yes, the Cowboys struggle to take care of the ball. Are they going to make the NCAA Tournament? I'd bet against it. However, they have one senior in their rotation, so this same group is going to be back next year, and I think they are going to be very good then. Cameron McGriff is a really good big man, Lindy Waters and Thomas Dziagwa are great shooters, and I'm a big fan of freshman point guard Isaac Likekele. If you want to see a fun game, check out Oklahoma State during Big 12 play.
What I Saw
This is where I'll breakdown the previous week's games in a similar fashion to my Fast Break series. I'll offer my thoughts and observations from that slate and explain my changes, if any, to my power rankings all in this space. There obviously weren't any games this past week, so for now this is all I have here.
What To Watch
- The headliner of the opening night of conference play is Oklahoma traveling to Phogg Allen to play Kansas. Both these teams like to play quickly on the offensive end, but I think the most interesting area is defense. So far this year, Oklahoma has been very good at defending the paint. Their only loss came when Wisconsin made 14 threes, basically going away from the paint all together. However, I think Kansas is at it's best in the paint with Dedric Lawson and Udoka Azubuike. I think Jamuni McNeese is going to see a lot more minutes in this game alongside Brady Manek as he is the best post defender and matchup for Azubuike. I do think Kansas has the advantage here, with Lawson being in a constant mismatch, since I don't think Manek, Kristian Doolittle, Christian James, or anyone else can really guard him. I'm also going to be really interested to see who Bill Self has guarding Christian James. Personally, I would go with Marcus Garrett, who I think is the best perimeter defender on this roster. However, he is a zero on the offensive end, so playing him means Quentin Grimes would be off the court, which may be a good thing for Kansas, but it really hurts their offensive spacing and would give Oklahoma more ability to double down on Azubuike or Lawson. If Self goes with Grimes in the lineup, I would imagine Lagerald Vick draws the assignment, but I think James would sneakily win that matchup. It will be fascinating to watch this one, but I think Kansas at home is too tough to beat with Azubuike back and healthy.
- If you like defense, be sure to tune into Kansas State at Texas Tech on Saturday. These are the two best teams in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency rankings, so something has to give in this one. They both do a very good job defending the three point line, and the game could come down to who is able to make more shots from deep. What I think ultimately decides this one is two things. First off, the absence of Dean Wade is killer for Kansas State, as they have been excellent at controlling the defensive glass, but without the big man who is arguably the best rebounder on the team, I think Tech can get to the offensive glass and steal a few buckets. Primary ball handlers Cartier Diarra and Kamau Stokes have also been a bit loose with the ball in their hands, and the Red Raiders will absolutely pounce on their miscues. With Texas Tech winning the rebounding and turnover battles, I think they pull this one out at home.
- A battle of two in-state rivals takes place on Saturday with Oklahoma State traveling to Norman to take on the Sooners. I think this game may be a bit closer than it first appears. Oklahoma's defense likes to slow teams down, but I think the Cowboys can get out in transition enough to causes problems for the Sooners. Also, one of the weaknesses of Oklahoma State's offense has been their turnovers, but Oklahoma's defense isn't one that will come out and force a lot of turnovers. The Cowboys also prefer to score via the three, while Oklahoma thrives at defending the paint, so this may be an advantageous matchup for the Cowboys. I do think Lon Kruger will tweak his defense a bit to make sure the Sooners aren't a disadvantage, but I think Oklahoma State will go on a run or two and keep this game very interesting.
- Kansas doesn't get to rest after their matchup with Oklahoma, as they have to travel to Ames to face Iowa State. As I mentioned earlier, the Cyclones take excellent care of the ball and are very efficient offensively. However, I'm most interested to see how their rotation looks in this one. In arguably their biggest game of the entire season, I don't see a way to keep slowly easing Lindell Wigginton back into action. However, they have been so good this year, I'm unsure if messing with that successful formula is the best idea. If Steve Prohm can figure out the rotation in the best way for everyone involved, I actually lean the Cyclones in this one. I really like their offense and I think Kansas could get caught out on the road after what figures to be a tough matchup against Oklahoma.
Full Big 12 Schedule 1/1-1/7
1/2
Texas Tech @ West Virginia
Oklahoma @ Kansas
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State
Texas @ Kansas State
1/5
Kansas State @ Texas Tech
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma
Baylor @ TCU
Kansas @ Iowa State
West Virginia @ Texas
3 Questions
1. Is this the year Kansas doesn't win the Big 12?
After fourteen years of Kansas winning at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title, there seems to be as many cracks in the armor as ever for the Jayhawks this season. They have struggled with some easier teams, and lost recently to Arizona State. With their first three games coming against Oklahoma, Iowa State, and TCU, they could struggle early and you'll see a lot of articles about how this is finally the year Kansas doesn't win the Big 12. However, I still think the Jayhawks are going to win this conference, although I'm going to say they don't win it outright. I think when you look at the non-conference performance of Kansas, two things stand out. First, Udoka Azubuike has been hurt on in foul trouble in most of the worst performance. This is a very different team when he is on the floor versus Mitch Lightfoot. He commands so much attention in the paint and that often leads to a double team and an open shot for someone, or a team staying home on shooters and watching as Doke gets a bucket. In his first game back, he had 23 and 6 against Eastern Michigan in the Jayhawk's best performance since early December. The other has been the poor play of Quentin Grimes. He was excellent against Michigan State in his college debut, scoring 21 points and making 6 threes. Since then, he has made 7 threes total and has scored in double digits just three times. He just hasn't looked good when he's on the court, and it's leading to more minutes for Marcus Garrett, KJ Lawson, and Charlie Moore, none of whom fit into the role Grimes should be filling. I think he will sort things out in conference play, especially with more open shots now that Azubuike is back and defenses paying less attention to him. I think those two will elevate Kansas to better play, and they will get a fifteenth straight Big 12 title.
2. Who will challenge the Jayhawks?
I mentioned I don't think Kansas will win the Big 12 title outright. That leaves the question: who is going to share it with them? There are a few different options. Texas Tech is the most obvious, as they have arguably the best player in the conference in Jarrett Culver, arguably the best defense in the country, and one of the best coaches both in the Big 12 and nationally in Chris Beard. They nearly beat Duke, and have just one loss. Next up is Oklahoma, who is possibly the biggest surprise team in the country as they sit with just one loss heading into conference play and one of the most impressive players thus far in Christian James. TCU has been quietly great, albeit with a weak non-conference schedule, and also sits with one loss and one of the better offenses in the nation. Kansas State could also make a run if they have some positive regression with their shooting, as they have a stout defense and the same core from their Elite Eight run last season. Finally, Iowa State is finally healthy and has played better than expected without key players, so it is very possible they could challenge at the top of the conference. Personally, I don't think Texas Tech has enough offense to get there, as outside of Culver, the team isn't great offensively. Oklahoma and Iowa State are very good teams, and I think they will have great seasons, almost certainly winning double digit games in the Big 12, but I don't think they will be able to reach that elite level. Finally, Kansas State will be without Dean Wade for about a month, and I think once he gets back the Wildcats can go on a big run and will be very dangerous in the conference tournament, but without him, I don't see them winning enough games early on. Which means yes, I think TCU will tie with Kansas atop the Big 12. They have been excellent offensively, and their one loss came with Jaylen Fisher, who is arguably the best player on their roster. They have been better than I expected this year, and I think they will come out on top with Kansas.
3. Is this the best conference in the country?
It is a question that gets asked every year, and it's something that is very tough to judge. Do you look at the number of tournament teams, compare the best team in each conference, look at overall parity, performance in quadrant 1 games, performance against other Power 6 conferences, or something else entirely? For my money, the Big 12 is the most competitive conference in the country. It really feels like there is a fairly realistic scenario in which any team can beat any other team. Take Oklahoma State at Kansas. If the Cowboys can get Udoka Azubuike in foul trouble, they double Dedric Lawson and keep him fairly quiet offensively, Quentin Grimes keeps playing poorly, and they are make a few big shots, then yeah, they could probably walk away from Phogg Allen Fieldhouse with a huge win. Is it likely? No, but I don't think it's insane. There isn't another conference where you can say that. There is no shot Wake Forest or Georgia Tech beats Duke, California beats Arizona State, Illinois beats Michigan, or South Carolina beats Tennessee. It would take massive injuries or a minor miracle. MAYBE DePaul could beat Marquette, but even then, you'd need Marquette to basically stop making threes, which seems very, very unlikely. I don't think it's the best conference, but I do think it's the most competitive, and I think that might be better.
1. Kansas
Record: 11-1
My Thoughts: The Jayhawks have been so weird this year. They have an excellent resume with wins over Michigan State, Marquette, Tennessee, Stanford, Wofford, New Mexico State, and Villanova, with a loss at Arizona State. They have one of the best players in the country in Dedric Lawson, they are top 15 in offensive and defensive efficiency, and yet they have been disappointing. They've won a lot of close games, and if you look at a lot of the numbers, they don't really shine at any one thing. Quentin Grimes has been flat out bad since the opening night against Michigan State, and I actually think his struggles have really impacted this team. They don't have a second wing scorer behind Lagerald Vick, who is shouldering an insane load, and without Udoka Azubuike, really only have 2 busy that can be counted on to get a bucket. I'm going to go in depth on this team later on, but for now, they have to be the favorite to win the Big 12 yet again.
2. Texas Tech
Record: 11-1
My Thoughts: The Red Raiders were a surprise team last year in the Big 12, and yet somehow everyone underestimated them again. Chris Beard has this team at 11-1, with their only loss coming to Duke on a neutral court, and they have beaten USC, Memphis, and Nebraska, all on neutral courts. They have the best defense in America, according to KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, and it is incredible to watch. They are the best in the country at defending the three point line, forcing teams into shooting 24.6% from deep thanks to high pressure defense. They also don't allow teams to get into the paint, as opponents shoot 37.9% on two pointers. They also force turnovers on nearly 25% of possessions, and I love watching their defense. On offense, they do struggle a little bit, and there have been stretches where they can't get a bucket, but the play of Jarrett Culver has been excellent. Culver has broken out as a sophomore, and he is so vital to this team, as he leads the team in points (19.6), rebounds (5.6), assists (4.3), and three point percentage (45.2%, min 20 attempts), and he has established himself as a lottery pick with his play this year.
3. Oklahoma
Record: 11-1
My Thoughts: The Sooners made a name for themselves last season as the place Trae Young was playing basketball. The dynamic point guard drew a lot of headlines, and he propelled them to national attention. However, they may be even better this year without Young, as they sit at 11-1 heading into conference play. They haven't been beating up on bad teams either, with every game since November 18 coming against one of the top 120 teams in KenPom. With wins over Wofford, Florida, Dayton, North Texas, Notre Dame, Wichita State, USC, Creighton, and Northwestern, with their only loss coming against Wisconsin, the Sooners sneakily have one of the best resumes in the nation. Unlike last year, Oklahoma has an elite defense, ranking eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they are really locking down on points inside the arc, with teams shooting 40.9% on twos this year. They also keep opponents off the foul line, and that has led to their opposition shooting 61.8% from the foul line. They go quickly on offense, and the play of Christan James, who is putting up 17.9 points and 7.2 rebounds, has helped them ascend to the top of the Big 12. They have been a surprise to me so far, and I see no reason why it can't continue.
4. TCU
Record: 11-1
My Thoughts: The Horned Frogs have slid under the radar all year, but they have just one loss on the year, at home to a very good Lipscomb team, and feature wins over Fresno State, SMU, USC, and Indiana State twice, the second time coming in the Diamond Head Classic final. Jamie Dixon has been linked to the UCLA opening, and it's well deserved. This is a very well coached team, rarely turning the ball over and taking a lot of good shots. They are also a very good defensive team, holding opponents from the three point line to making just 28.3% of their shots. The backcourt of Alex Robinson and Jaylen Fisher is really great and super underrated nationally, and I love this team and think they could finish even higher than this in the Big 12 and should be a top 25 team at the year's end.
5. Kansas State
Record: 10-2
My Thoughts: The Wildcats are one of my most disappointing teams so far this season. I expected a lot from them after an Elite Eight run last year and a strong returning core, but they haven't looked like the same team yet. With losses to Marquette and Tulsa, both on the road, and no real standout wins, with Missouri and Vanderbilt being the headliners so far, I just haven't seen it so far. They haven't been the same team on offense, with seemingly the entire team regressing on that end. They are really struggling from three, only making 31.3% of their attempts from behind the arc, and Barry Brown, Kamau Stokes, Xavier Sneed, and Cartier Diarra have all taken a step back on offense. They are still stout defensively, ranking second in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they do a very good job defending the arc, watching opponents shoot 27.4% from deep, and clean up those misses, as opponents get just 19.1% of offensive boards, the lowest rate in the nation. There is still a lot of potential here if they can straighten themselves out offensively, but it will be tough without star big man Dean Wade for the first month due to a foot injury.
6. Iowa State
Record: 10-2
My Thoughts: The Cyclones have been even better than I thought, as without Lindell Wigginton, Cameron Lard, and Solomon Young for most of the year, they are still 10-2. Nebraska transfer Michael Jacobsen has really stepped up as has Virginia transfer Marial Shayok, as they are the two leading scorers for Iowa State, combining for 35.5 points a game so far this year. They offense has been very good, thanks to limited turnovers and getting a lot of good looks. They are solid defensively, which is all they need to be given their offensive skill. I'm really interested to see how the rotation is adjusted to accommodate the three returning players, and this team could easily shoot up these rankings.
7. Texas
Record: 8-4
My Thoughts: I think a sneaky story in college hoops for 2019 is going to be Shaka Smart's job security. For all the success he has had recruiting, it hasn't really translated onto the court, as the Longhorns have made two tournaments in three years under Smart, and have no wins in March Madness. They have been inconsistent this year, with wins over Arkansas, North Carolina and Purdue, but losses to Michigan State, Radford, VCU, and Providence, three of which came at home. They are a top 10 defensive unit, largely thanks to their collection of athletic guards and bigs, most of whom thrive defensively. Unfortunately, seemingly none of those players are able to shoot the basketball. It is really incredible that no one on Texas had been able to shoot the basketball consistently from three in years. They shoot 32% as a team, and the leader in three point percentage is Jase Febres at 35%. When they can make their shots, like in the UNC game, they are very dangerous, but there is no signs of them being able to do that on any sort of consistent basis, so they will continue to struggle offensively.
8. West Virginia
Record: 8-4
My Thoughts: A team I had in my preseason top 25, the Mountaineers have really not figured things out yet this season. They really miss Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles, as the guard play has been bad on both ends. Offensively, West Virginia turns the ball over at one of the highest rates in the nation, while the vaunted press is nowhere near as good as it has been in year's past. It certainly doesn't help that star center Sagaba Konate has been battling injuries all season and has yet to consistently find the court. Without their press being able to force turnovers and rattle teams, they've watched as teams consistently break the press and get a quick and easy shot. Meanwhile, they have been objectively bad offensively, as most of their points come on offensive rebounds and free throws. If your best source of offense is missed shots, that is not ideal. Unlike some of the other teams ahead of them, I don't know if they can turn things around given the poor guard play that I don't think will change anytime soon.
9. Baylor
Record: 8-4
My Thoughts: Baylor is a team that absolutely no one wants to play. Why? They are a tough, gritty defensive team that will just beat you up on that end, and it's a grind it out type game that are awful to play in. Now, the Bears aren't the most talented team in the league, as proved by their losses to Texas Southern and Stephen F. Austin, but they are going to win some games. In their two high major wins over Arizona and Oregon, they held both teams under 50 points. When looking at this team, it's pretty clear why they are so good on the defensive end: going into the paint against the Bears is a bad idea. They hold opponents to 42.5% shooting from two, and they are blocking 19.2% of those shots. The main catalyst is Tristian Clark, who is quietly one of the best big men in the country. He is blocking 2.8 shots a game and has the 26th best block rate in the nation according to KenPom. He is also leading the team with 14.3 points a game on 78% shooting, which is third best in the country. He also grabs 6.5 rebounds. Outside of him though, the offense isn't great. Like Texas, they cannot shoot, making just 29% of their threes as a team, one of the worst marks in the entire country. They are also struggling with turnovers, but they are going to knock off a more talented team with their tough, defensive mentality.
10. Oklahoma State
Record: 6-6
My Thoughts: I want to get this out of the way: Oklahoma State is likely not going to be very good this year. That being said, I love this team. They play a very aesthetically pleasing style, getting up and down the court and taking a lot of threes. It's quite simply fun to watch, and really, isn't that why we all love this sport? Because it's fun? Does that style of play lead to too many turnovers? Yes, the Cowboys struggle to take care of the ball. Are they going to make the NCAA Tournament? I'd bet against it. However, they have one senior in their rotation, so this same group is going to be back next year, and I think they are going to be very good then. Cameron McGriff is a really good big man, Lindy Waters and Thomas Dziagwa are great shooters, and I'm a big fan of freshman point guard Isaac Likekele. If you want to see a fun game, check out Oklahoma State during Big 12 play.
What I Saw
This is where I'll breakdown the previous week's games in a similar fashion to my Fast Break series. I'll offer my thoughts and observations from that slate and explain my changes, if any, to my power rankings all in this space. There obviously weren't any games this past week, so for now this is all I have here.
What To Watch
- The headliner of the opening night of conference play is Oklahoma traveling to Phogg Allen to play Kansas. Both these teams like to play quickly on the offensive end, but I think the most interesting area is defense. So far this year, Oklahoma has been very good at defending the paint. Their only loss came when Wisconsin made 14 threes, basically going away from the paint all together. However, I think Kansas is at it's best in the paint with Dedric Lawson and Udoka Azubuike. I think Jamuni McNeese is going to see a lot more minutes in this game alongside Brady Manek as he is the best post defender and matchup for Azubuike. I do think Kansas has the advantage here, with Lawson being in a constant mismatch, since I don't think Manek, Kristian Doolittle, Christian James, or anyone else can really guard him. I'm also going to be really interested to see who Bill Self has guarding Christian James. Personally, I would go with Marcus Garrett, who I think is the best perimeter defender on this roster. However, he is a zero on the offensive end, so playing him means Quentin Grimes would be off the court, which may be a good thing for Kansas, but it really hurts their offensive spacing and would give Oklahoma more ability to double down on Azubuike or Lawson. If Self goes with Grimes in the lineup, I would imagine Lagerald Vick draws the assignment, but I think James would sneakily win that matchup. It will be fascinating to watch this one, but I think Kansas at home is too tough to beat with Azubuike back and healthy.
- If you like defense, be sure to tune into Kansas State at Texas Tech on Saturday. These are the two best teams in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency rankings, so something has to give in this one. They both do a very good job defending the three point line, and the game could come down to who is able to make more shots from deep. What I think ultimately decides this one is two things. First off, the absence of Dean Wade is killer for Kansas State, as they have been excellent at controlling the defensive glass, but without the big man who is arguably the best rebounder on the team, I think Tech can get to the offensive glass and steal a few buckets. Primary ball handlers Cartier Diarra and Kamau Stokes have also been a bit loose with the ball in their hands, and the Red Raiders will absolutely pounce on their miscues. With Texas Tech winning the rebounding and turnover battles, I think they pull this one out at home.
- A battle of two in-state rivals takes place on Saturday with Oklahoma State traveling to Norman to take on the Sooners. I think this game may be a bit closer than it first appears. Oklahoma's defense likes to slow teams down, but I think the Cowboys can get out in transition enough to causes problems for the Sooners. Also, one of the weaknesses of Oklahoma State's offense has been their turnovers, but Oklahoma's defense isn't one that will come out and force a lot of turnovers. The Cowboys also prefer to score via the three, while Oklahoma thrives at defending the paint, so this may be an advantageous matchup for the Cowboys. I do think Lon Kruger will tweak his defense a bit to make sure the Sooners aren't a disadvantage, but I think Oklahoma State will go on a run or two and keep this game very interesting.
- Kansas doesn't get to rest after their matchup with Oklahoma, as they have to travel to Ames to face Iowa State. As I mentioned earlier, the Cyclones take excellent care of the ball and are very efficient offensively. However, I'm most interested to see how their rotation looks in this one. In arguably their biggest game of the entire season, I don't see a way to keep slowly easing Lindell Wigginton back into action. However, they have been so good this year, I'm unsure if messing with that successful formula is the best idea. If Steve Prohm can figure out the rotation in the best way for everyone involved, I actually lean the Cyclones in this one. I really like their offense and I think Kansas could get caught out on the road after what figures to be a tough matchup against Oklahoma.
Full Big 12 Schedule 1/1-1/7
1/2
Texas Tech @ West Virginia
Oklahoma @ Kansas
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State
Texas @ Kansas State
1/5
Kansas State @ Texas Tech
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma
Baylor @ TCU
Kansas @ Iowa State
West Virginia @ Texas
3 Questions
1. Is this the year Kansas doesn't win the Big 12?
After fourteen years of Kansas winning at least a share of the Big 12 regular season title, there seems to be as many cracks in the armor as ever for the Jayhawks this season. They have struggled with some easier teams, and lost recently to Arizona State. With their first three games coming against Oklahoma, Iowa State, and TCU, they could struggle early and you'll see a lot of articles about how this is finally the year Kansas doesn't win the Big 12. However, I still think the Jayhawks are going to win this conference, although I'm going to say they don't win it outright. I think when you look at the non-conference performance of Kansas, two things stand out. First, Udoka Azubuike has been hurt on in foul trouble in most of the worst performance. This is a very different team when he is on the floor versus Mitch Lightfoot. He commands so much attention in the paint and that often leads to a double team and an open shot for someone, or a team staying home on shooters and watching as Doke gets a bucket. In his first game back, he had 23 and 6 against Eastern Michigan in the Jayhawk's best performance since early December. The other has been the poor play of Quentin Grimes. He was excellent against Michigan State in his college debut, scoring 21 points and making 6 threes. Since then, he has made 7 threes total and has scored in double digits just three times. He just hasn't looked good when he's on the court, and it's leading to more minutes for Marcus Garrett, KJ Lawson, and Charlie Moore, none of whom fit into the role Grimes should be filling. I think he will sort things out in conference play, especially with more open shots now that Azubuike is back and defenses paying less attention to him. I think those two will elevate Kansas to better play, and they will get a fifteenth straight Big 12 title.
2. Who will challenge the Jayhawks?
I mentioned I don't think Kansas will win the Big 12 title outright. That leaves the question: who is going to share it with them? There are a few different options. Texas Tech is the most obvious, as they have arguably the best player in the conference in Jarrett Culver, arguably the best defense in the country, and one of the best coaches both in the Big 12 and nationally in Chris Beard. They nearly beat Duke, and have just one loss. Next up is Oklahoma, who is possibly the biggest surprise team in the country as they sit with just one loss heading into conference play and one of the most impressive players thus far in Christian James. TCU has been quietly great, albeit with a weak non-conference schedule, and also sits with one loss and one of the better offenses in the nation. Kansas State could also make a run if they have some positive regression with their shooting, as they have a stout defense and the same core from their Elite Eight run last season. Finally, Iowa State is finally healthy and has played better than expected without key players, so it is very possible they could challenge at the top of the conference. Personally, I don't think Texas Tech has enough offense to get there, as outside of Culver, the team isn't great offensively. Oklahoma and Iowa State are very good teams, and I think they will have great seasons, almost certainly winning double digit games in the Big 12, but I don't think they will be able to reach that elite level. Finally, Kansas State will be without Dean Wade for about a month, and I think once he gets back the Wildcats can go on a big run and will be very dangerous in the conference tournament, but without him, I don't see them winning enough games early on. Which means yes, I think TCU will tie with Kansas atop the Big 12. They have been excellent offensively, and their one loss came with Jaylen Fisher, who is arguably the best player on their roster. They have been better than I expected this year, and I think they will come out on top with Kansas.
3. Is this the best conference in the country?
It is a question that gets asked every year, and it's something that is very tough to judge. Do you look at the number of tournament teams, compare the best team in each conference, look at overall parity, performance in quadrant 1 games, performance against other Power 6 conferences, or something else entirely? For my money, the Big 12 is the most competitive conference in the country. It really feels like there is a fairly realistic scenario in which any team can beat any other team. Take Oklahoma State at Kansas. If the Cowboys can get Udoka Azubuike in foul trouble, they double Dedric Lawson and keep him fairly quiet offensively, Quentin Grimes keeps playing poorly, and they are make a few big shots, then yeah, they could probably walk away from Phogg Allen Fieldhouse with a huge win. Is it likely? No, but I don't think it's insane. There isn't another conference where you can say that. There is no shot Wake Forest or Georgia Tech beats Duke, California beats Arizona State, Illinois beats Michigan, or South Carolina beats Tennessee. It would take massive injuries or a minor miracle. MAYBE DePaul could beat Marquette, but even then, you'd need Marquette to basically stop making threes, which seems very, very unlikely. I don't think it's the best conference, but I do think it's the most competitive, and I think that might be better.
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