The Big Ten has certainly bounced back from a down year last year, where they had four representatives in March and most traditional powers, like Wisconsin and Indiana, experienced massive down years. This season, there are a lot of very competitive teams and the league figures to have 7-9 bids in March. As always, I would love to discuss the Big Ten on Twitter @ThreePointRange, and I tweet out a lot of live thoughts there, so be sure to follow me.
Thoughts
- Nebraska is in a pretty bad spot right now. The Cornhuskers are on a four game losing streak and have lost 6 of their last eight, and they just lost forward Isaac Copeland for the rest of the year, which is a huge blow to Tim Miles and company. The Huskers were by no means a deep team, and I don't think they have the depth to withstand this injury to such a key player. The Big Ten offers no easy games, and Nebraska has some tough games coming up with Maryland and Purdue coming up on then schedule. I really think they could fall out of the tournament picture soon and if they want to stay in the race, they will need a lot more production out of their role players.
- Zavier Simpson is such a great player. If you go way back on my blog to last season's tournament talk, I've been a huge fan of his for a long time. He's one of the best on-ball defenders in the sport, and he has been a huge catalyst for Michigan's defensive revolution. I also think his offensive game has come a long way, with the ability to hit an open three, attack the basket and finish with a god damn sky hook, and he's a great passer. Everything that makes him so great was on display against Ohio State, when he scored 11 points, including some of those wild hook shots, got 10 rebounds, dished out 12 assists, got 2 steals, and was overall incredible. Look for him to continue to lead the Wolverines through conference play.
- How much fun was Iowa and Minnesota? The Hawkeyes and Golden Gophers were going blow for blow offensively, and both teams were completely locked in on the offensive end, and the game finished at 92-87. There were 4 players over 20 points, and two more over 18. Iowa went 10-18 from three, and Isaiah Moss continued to be hot, draining 6 shots from behind the arc. Meanwhile, Minnesota was once again led by Jordan Murphy, who finished with 23 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists. This was one of the most fun games of the season, and this was a complete and welcome departure from a lot of other Big Ten games.
- Michigan State went into Purdue and get shellacked for 30 minutes. They roared back late, but it was really too little too late, as they trailed 55-32 at one point in the second half. What was really crazy to me was that Carsen Edwards finished 4-19 from the field and Purdue still rolled. The Boilermakers got really hot from three, making 12 shots from deep, and Aaron Wheeler, who I think is going to be a Big Ten star in a few years, and Ryan Cline were making seemingly everything throughout the game. I still really like Michigan State, they are still number 4 in the country for me and number one in the Big Ten, and I think the Spartans are a great team as long as Cassius Winston is at the helm. He struggled with the size of Nojel Eastern in the first half, but single handedly led the Spartans back into game, and finished with 23 points, 8 assists, and 7 rebounds, and he is a first team All-American, and I think he should be in the conversation for National Player of the Year.
Power Rankings
1. Michigan State (1)
Record: 18-3, 9-1
2. Michigan (2)
Record: 20-1, 9-1
3. Purdue (6)
Record: 14-6, 7-2
4. Maryland (3)
Record: 17-5, 8-3
5. Wisconsin (5)
Record: 15-6, 7-3
6. Iowa (4)
Record: 16-5, 5-5
7. Minnesota (7)
Record: 15-5, 5-4
8. Ohio State (10)
Record: 13-7, 3-6
9. Nebraska (9)
Record: 13-8, 3-7
10. Indiana (8)
Record: 12-8, 3-6
11. Northwestern (11)
Record: 12-9, 3-7
12. Rutgers (12)
Record: 10-9, 3-6
13. Illinois (13)
Record: 6-14, 2-7
14. Penn State (14)
Record: 7-13 0-9
What To Watch
- Indiana has an absolutely massive game heading to Rutgers tonight. For those of you just looking at the names, this seems like an easy victory. However, given how the year has gone, I think you could argue Rutgers should be the favorite in this matchup. Starting off, the RAC is a very tough place to play, and Rutgers already has victories over Ohio State and Nebraska at home. The Scarlet Knights are also winners of two straight, while Indiana is limping in on 6 straight losses. The Hoosiers are really struggling offensively, and Rutgers are a stout defensive unit. Are they going to go bananas offensively and outscore Indiana? No, but I think they will stop an anemic offense, which ranks 12 in the Big Ten this season, and I really think Rutgers is going to win this game.
- Michigan is going to Iowa City to play the Hawkeyes. Iowa is entering on a two game losing streak and the Wolverines are heading in having won three straight games. The Hawkeyes have one of the top offenses in the country, and Michigan has the best defensive efficiency per KenPom. I think you have to favor the defense in that matchup, although I don't think it's super clear cut. Iowa's point guard Jordan Bohannon has struggled with length this season, but he'll have the size advantage over Zavier Simpson. Now, I fully expect Simpson to give him fits, but I think Bohannon can have a good game. I think the key matchup will be Luka Garza against Jon Teske. Garza has scored 20 or more points in four straight games, including tying a career high with 25 points last time out. I'll be interested to see how he does against one of the top defensive bigs in the nation. I give Michigan the edge since I think they can take advantage of a poor Hawkeyes defense, but I think this game will be very close.
- Later that night, we get top 25 matchup with Maryland at Wisconsin. The obvious matchup to watch here is Ethan Happ against the Maryland front court, and I am really excited to see that play out. The last time these two teams played, both Happ and Bruno Fernando were in foul trouble, and Maryland was able to take advantage of that and win 64-60. With both Fernando and Jalen Smith on the court at the same time for the Terps, I think they can do a good job of neutralizing Happ, especially Fernando, whose length and athleticism have to potential to really take Happ out of his element. I just like Maryland a little more than Wisconsin this year, and I think they have a beneficial matchup, so I'll give them the edge, but it should be another close game.
- Minnesota faces a tough test when they go to West Lafayette to take on Purdue. The Golden Gophers have been solid all year, but the Boilermakers are playing like one of the best teams in the country at the moment, and they possess one of the best offenses in the nation. Minnesota does have a few things going for it, however. For one, Carsen Edwards doesn't do well against plus defenders (See his performances against Matt McQuaid from Michigan State and Zavier Simpson of Michigan), and Amir Coffey has the size and skill to really bother the Boilermakers' star defensively. I also don't know how Purdue guards Jordan Murphy, as he is too quick for Trevion Williams, too big for Matt Haarms, and too skilled for Grady Eifert. Ultimately, Purdue's strength shooting the three and Minnesota's weakness defending that area should be enough to propel the Boilermakers to a win, but I think it'll be a tightly contested affair.
Full Big Ten Schedule 1/30-2/5
1/30
Indiana @ Rutgers
Illinois @ Minnesota
1/31
Purdue @ Penn State
2/1
Michigan @ Iowa
Maryland @ Wisconsin
2/2
Rutgers @ Ohio State
Nebraska @ Illinois
Indiana @ Michigan State
2/3
Minnesota @ Purdue
2/4
Penn State @ Northwestern
2/5
Michigan State @ Illinois
Michigan @ Rutgers
Tournament Tracker
I am starting a new section here, with the Tournament Tracker for each conference. The 3 Questions segment had kind of gotten boring for me, and I was often struggling to come up with questions and asking on Twitter for questions. If you have any questions you'd like me to answer, I will answer them up in the Thoughts section, so ask away. For this, I have separated the teams into four sections: Locks, teams who are going to make the tournament no matter what, In the Field, teams who have some wiggle room at the moment and are comfortably in the sitting in the tournament, Bubble, teams who could go either way, and Out, the teams who won't be getting an at-large appearance. I've gone a bit conservative, so the bubble is probably a little bigger now than it actually is. I'll list out the tiers, and then give an explanation for some of the teams, and some of the key games they have coming up.
Locks: Michigan State, Michigan
Both Michigan schools will be dancing, probably as very high seeds. They both sit with gaudy records, each has at least 18 wins, and very good resumes, with several big wins. They both also have just one conference loss, on the road to other good teams, and barring losing out, both these teams will be in March.
In the Field: Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin
As I said earlier, I went a little cautious with the bubble, so for now, these are the only three teams I have safely in the field. Maryland has the best record of the group, sitting at 17-5, but lack the real top of the resume win, with their best victory coming against Wisconsin. Purdue has the most losses, but all of them, sans a neutral court loss to Notre Dame, are to top 32 teams in KenPom, and they hold a victory over Michigan State, as well as Maryland, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Finally, Wisconsin has the worst loss of the group, to Western Kentucky, but they also have the strongest non-conference resume, with wins over Oklahoma and North Carolina State, and they took down Michigan in conference play. All of them have very good resumes and should be in the tournament without any problems.
Bubble: Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio State, Nebraska, Indiana, Northwestern
The bubble is currently massive in the Big Ten, with six teams all having a case to make the tournament should they win some more conference games. I think this group will shrink pretty soon, with Iowa and Minnesota jumping up and Northwestern dropping out of this group. Iowa has a victory over Iowa State that looks better by the day, and no bad losses, so as long as they continue to win, they'll be fine. Minnesota has ugly losses to Boston College and Illinois, and their wins over Washington, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M are not as good as they would've hoped. However, they beat Wisconsin and the Huskies continue to improve, so I think they are on the bubble for now, but another big victory (at Purdue?) would have them in the field. As for Northwestern, they just don't have the quality of wins to put them in the field, and while they have no bad losses, a home win over Indiana is not going to anchor a resume. If they can knock off a few top teams, they can go dancing, but that looks unlikely. The other three teams have solid non-conference wins (Ohio State beat Cincinnati and Creighton, Indiana beat Marquette and Louisville, and Nebraska beat Seton Hall, Clemson, and Creighton) but all three have struggled in Big Ten play, and currently have 6 conference losses, and after today (Wednesday), all three could have losses to Rutgers. Ohio State is in the best position to turn things around in my mind, but every game is huge for all three of these teams' tournament hopes.
Out: Rutgers, Illinois, Penn State
Yeah these teams don't have a shot outside of winning the conference tournament. Two of them having losing records, and Rutgers is sitting at a game above .500 at the moment. It would take a massive run for the Scarlet Knights to enter the bubble picture, and the other two are almost without hope, outside of winning the conference tournament.
Thoughts
- Nebraska is in a pretty bad spot right now. The Cornhuskers are on a four game losing streak and have lost 6 of their last eight, and they just lost forward Isaac Copeland for the rest of the year, which is a huge blow to Tim Miles and company. The Huskers were by no means a deep team, and I don't think they have the depth to withstand this injury to such a key player. The Big Ten offers no easy games, and Nebraska has some tough games coming up with Maryland and Purdue coming up on then schedule. I really think they could fall out of the tournament picture soon and if they want to stay in the race, they will need a lot more production out of their role players.
- Zavier Simpson is such a great player. If you go way back on my blog to last season's tournament talk, I've been a huge fan of his for a long time. He's one of the best on-ball defenders in the sport, and he has been a huge catalyst for Michigan's defensive revolution. I also think his offensive game has come a long way, with the ability to hit an open three, attack the basket and finish with a god damn sky hook, and he's a great passer. Everything that makes him so great was on display against Ohio State, when he scored 11 points, including some of those wild hook shots, got 10 rebounds, dished out 12 assists, got 2 steals, and was overall incredible. Look for him to continue to lead the Wolverines through conference play.
- How much fun was Iowa and Minnesota? The Hawkeyes and Golden Gophers were going blow for blow offensively, and both teams were completely locked in on the offensive end, and the game finished at 92-87. There were 4 players over 20 points, and two more over 18. Iowa went 10-18 from three, and Isaiah Moss continued to be hot, draining 6 shots from behind the arc. Meanwhile, Minnesota was once again led by Jordan Murphy, who finished with 23 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists. This was one of the most fun games of the season, and this was a complete and welcome departure from a lot of other Big Ten games.
- Michigan State went into Purdue and get shellacked for 30 minutes. They roared back late, but it was really too little too late, as they trailed 55-32 at one point in the second half. What was really crazy to me was that Carsen Edwards finished 4-19 from the field and Purdue still rolled. The Boilermakers got really hot from three, making 12 shots from deep, and Aaron Wheeler, who I think is going to be a Big Ten star in a few years, and Ryan Cline were making seemingly everything throughout the game. I still really like Michigan State, they are still number 4 in the country for me and number one in the Big Ten, and I think the Spartans are a great team as long as Cassius Winston is at the helm. He struggled with the size of Nojel Eastern in the first half, but single handedly led the Spartans back into game, and finished with 23 points, 8 assists, and 7 rebounds, and he is a first team All-American, and I think he should be in the conversation for National Player of the Year.
Power Rankings
1. Michigan State (1)
Record: 18-3, 9-1
2. Michigan (2)
Record: 20-1, 9-1
3. Purdue (6)
Record: 14-6, 7-2
4. Maryland (3)
Record: 17-5, 8-3
5. Wisconsin (5)
Record: 15-6, 7-3
6. Iowa (4)
Record: 16-5, 5-5
7. Minnesota (7)
Record: 15-5, 5-4
8. Ohio State (10)
Record: 13-7, 3-6
9. Nebraska (9)
Record: 13-8, 3-7
10. Indiana (8)
Record: 12-8, 3-6
11. Northwestern (11)
Record: 12-9, 3-7
12. Rutgers (12)
Record: 10-9, 3-6
13. Illinois (13)
Record: 6-14, 2-7
14. Penn State (14)
Record: 7-13 0-9
What To Watch
- Indiana has an absolutely massive game heading to Rutgers tonight. For those of you just looking at the names, this seems like an easy victory. However, given how the year has gone, I think you could argue Rutgers should be the favorite in this matchup. Starting off, the RAC is a very tough place to play, and Rutgers already has victories over Ohio State and Nebraska at home. The Scarlet Knights are also winners of two straight, while Indiana is limping in on 6 straight losses. The Hoosiers are really struggling offensively, and Rutgers are a stout defensive unit. Are they going to go bananas offensively and outscore Indiana? No, but I think they will stop an anemic offense, which ranks 12 in the Big Ten this season, and I really think Rutgers is going to win this game.
- Michigan is going to Iowa City to play the Hawkeyes. Iowa is entering on a two game losing streak and the Wolverines are heading in having won three straight games. The Hawkeyes have one of the top offenses in the country, and Michigan has the best defensive efficiency per KenPom. I think you have to favor the defense in that matchup, although I don't think it's super clear cut. Iowa's point guard Jordan Bohannon has struggled with length this season, but he'll have the size advantage over Zavier Simpson. Now, I fully expect Simpson to give him fits, but I think Bohannon can have a good game. I think the key matchup will be Luka Garza against Jon Teske. Garza has scored 20 or more points in four straight games, including tying a career high with 25 points last time out. I'll be interested to see how he does against one of the top defensive bigs in the nation. I give Michigan the edge since I think they can take advantage of a poor Hawkeyes defense, but I think this game will be very close.
- Later that night, we get top 25 matchup with Maryland at Wisconsin. The obvious matchup to watch here is Ethan Happ against the Maryland front court, and I am really excited to see that play out. The last time these two teams played, both Happ and Bruno Fernando were in foul trouble, and Maryland was able to take advantage of that and win 64-60. With both Fernando and Jalen Smith on the court at the same time for the Terps, I think they can do a good job of neutralizing Happ, especially Fernando, whose length and athleticism have to potential to really take Happ out of his element. I just like Maryland a little more than Wisconsin this year, and I think they have a beneficial matchup, so I'll give them the edge, but it should be another close game.
- Minnesota faces a tough test when they go to West Lafayette to take on Purdue. The Golden Gophers have been solid all year, but the Boilermakers are playing like one of the best teams in the country at the moment, and they possess one of the best offenses in the nation. Minnesota does have a few things going for it, however. For one, Carsen Edwards doesn't do well against plus defenders (See his performances against Matt McQuaid from Michigan State and Zavier Simpson of Michigan), and Amir Coffey has the size and skill to really bother the Boilermakers' star defensively. I also don't know how Purdue guards Jordan Murphy, as he is too quick for Trevion Williams, too big for Matt Haarms, and too skilled for Grady Eifert. Ultimately, Purdue's strength shooting the three and Minnesota's weakness defending that area should be enough to propel the Boilermakers to a win, but I think it'll be a tightly contested affair.
Full Big Ten Schedule 1/30-2/5
1/30
Indiana @ Rutgers
Illinois @ Minnesota
1/31
Purdue @ Penn State
2/1
Michigan @ Iowa
Maryland @ Wisconsin
2/2
Rutgers @ Ohio State
Nebraska @ Illinois
Indiana @ Michigan State
2/3
Minnesota @ Purdue
2/4
Penn State @ Northwestern
2/5
Michigan State @ Illinois
Michigan @ Rutgers
Tournament Tracker
I am starting a new section here, with the Tournament Tracker for each conference. The 3 Questions segment had kind of gotten boring for me, and I was often struggling to come up with questions and asking on Twitter for questions. If you have any questions you'd like me to answer, I will answer them up in the Thoughts section, so ask away. For this, I have separated the teams into four sections: Locks, teams who are going to make the tournament no matter what, In the Field, teams who have some wiggle room at the moment and are comfortably in the sitting in the tournament, Bubble, teams who could go either way, and Out, the teams who won't be getting an at-large appearance. I've gone a bit conservative, so the bubble is probably a little bigger now than it actually is. I'll list out the tiers, and then give an explanation for some of the teams, and some of the key games they have coming up.
Locks: Michigan State, Michigan
Both Michigan schools will be dancing, probably as very high seeds. They both sit with gaudy records, each has at least 18 wins, and very good resumes, with several big wins. They both also have just one conference loss, on the road to other good teams, and barring losing out, both these teams will be in March.
In the Field: Purdue, Maryland, Wisconsin
As I said earlier, I went a little cautious with the bubble, so for now, these are the only three teams I have safely in the field. Maryland has the best record of the group, sitting at 17-5, but lack the real top of the resume win, with their best victory coming against Wisconsin. Purdue has the most losses, but all of them, sans a neutral court loss to Notre Dame, are to top 32 teams in KenPom, and they hold a victory over Michigan State, as well as Maryland, Iowa, and Wisconsin. Finally, Wisconsin has the worst loss of the group, to Western Kentucky, but they also have the strongest non-conference resume, with wins over Oklahoma and North Carolina State, and they took down Michigan in conference play. All of them have very good resumes and should be in the tournament without any problems.
Bubble: Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio State, Nebraska, Indiana, Northwestern
The bubble is currently massive in the Big Ten, with six teams all having a case to make the tournament should they win some more conference games. I think this group will shrink pretty soon, with Iowa and Minnesota jumping up and Northwestern dropping out of this group. Iowa has a victory over Iowa State that looks better by the day, and no bad losses, so as long as they continue to win, they'll be fine. Minnesota has ugly losses to Boston College and Illinois, and their wins over Washington, Oklahoma State, and Texas A&M are not as good as they would've hoped. However, they beat Wisconsin and the Huskies continue to improve, so I think they are on the bubble for now, but another big victory (at Purdue?) would have them in the field. As for Northwestern, they just don't have the quality of wins to put them in the field, and while they have no bad losses, a home win over Indiana is not going to anchor a resume. If they can knock off a few top teams, they can go dancing, but that looks unlikely. The other three teams have solid non-conference wins (Ohio State beat Cincinnati and Creighton, Indiana beat Marquette and Louisville, and Nebraska beat Seton Hall, Clemson, and Creighton) but all three have struggled in Big Ten play, and currently have 6 conference losses, and after today (Wednesday), all three could have losses to Rutgers. Ohio State is in the best position to turn things around in my mind, but every game is huge for all three of these teams' tournament hopes.
Out: Rutgers, Illinois, Penn State
Yeah these teams don't have a shot outside of winning the conference tournament. Two of them having losing records, and Rutgers is sitting at a game above .500 at the moment. It would take a massive run for the Scarlet Knights to enter the bubble picture, and the other two are almost without hope, outside of winning the conference tournament.
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