Power Rankings
1. Michigan (1)
Record: 13-0, 2-0
My Thoughts: The Wolverines have been great this season, as evidenced by their unblemished record heading into the resumption of conference play. They are excellent on the defensive end, allowing just 55 points a game this season and rank inside the top 5 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency. They really just do all the things you want. They aren't too aggressive, but they still get steals. They don't get a ton of blocks, but they are always in good defensive position to challenge shots and get rebounds, and don't foul often. They force teams off of the three point line with strong closeouts, but they don't overcommit and get beat to the basket. It's beautiful to watch as they have stifled some of the top teams in the nation, including Villanova, Providence, North Carolina, and Purdue. Offensively, they have a three point heavy attack, making 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc as a team, and they run a fairly simple but very effective offense that emphasizes spacing. The team is led on the defensive by Zavier Simpson, long a favorite of mine who has blown up this year with his great play. He doesn't score that much, but he averages 6.2 assists, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.5 steals a game, and his mentality and leadership have been key to their success. Offensively, Charles Matthews and Ignas Bradzeikis have gotten most of the attention, but Jordan Poole has been great as well, scoring 13.5 points a game and making 50% of his threes. This is a very dangerous team, and they are in the discussion for number one in the entire country.
2. Michigan State (2)
Record: 11-2, 2-0
My Thoughts: The Spartans have kind of surprised me this year. I didn't think they were a top-10 good team, but thus far they have been one of the best teams in the nation. With losses to Kansas and Louisville, the latter in overtime, and wins over UCLA, Texas, Iowa, and Florida, they have the resume. Their offense has been incredible to watch, largely thanks to Cassius Winston. Before this year, I questioned whether he could be a go-to scorer. Well, it turns out he can. He is scoring 17.5 points a game while shooting 45% from three. He is also an excellent floor general, dishing out 7.5 assists a game while only turning it over twice a contest. He, Nick Ward, and Joshua Langford have led Sparty to a top five offense in the country. They are money from deep, making 40.7% of their attempts from deep and Langford and Matt McQuaid join Winston in shooting over 40% from downtown. When they do miss, they can count on either Ward, Xavier Tillman, or Kenny Goins grabbing an offensive board. Defensively, they defend well on the interior, probably due to their two big men sharing the floor, and they feature one of the highest block rates in the country. Their one "weakness", if you can even call it that, is their inability to force turnovers, although that has more to do with a conservative defensive game plan than anything else. I really like this team and they should give Michigan a run for their money at the top of the conference.
3. Ohio State (6)
Record: 12-1, 2-0
My Thoughts: I don't think I was more wrong about any team in the country than the Buckeyes. I had them at tenth in my preseason predictions. I wasn't sold on the talent on the roster, and boy was I way off. They feature wins over Cincinnati and Creighton on the road, UCLA on a neutral, Minnesota at home, and their only loss came at home to Syracuse, the best team in the nation. They get it done first and foremost on the defensive end, as they do a great job at forcing bad shots. Teams have a 43.6% effective field goal percentage, fourteenth best defensive mark in the nation, the Buckeyes really just play harder than their opposition a lot of the time. Defensively, the play of freshman Luther Muhammad has really stood out. He's been OK offensively, but he's been a defensive stopper on the wing and player really well for the Buckeyes. Offensively, they struggle a little bit. Kaleb Wesson is a great post player and is very effective at what he does, and CJ Jackson is an excellent compliment as a sharpshooter. However, after those two, this isn't a very skilled offensive group, especially shooting the ball. I did underestimate this team, but I'm still not a huge fan of them. Are they a good team? Yes, but I don't think they are anywhere near their ranking of 14 in the AP Poll, instead falling more in the 18-25 range.
4. Wisconsin (4)
Record: 10-3, 2-0
My Thoughts: Perhaps the best three loss team in the nation, the Badgers have been very good thus far. With losses to Virginia, Marquette, and Western Kentucky along with victories over Stanford, Oklahoma, North Carolina State, and Iowa, the Badgers have proven they are legit after that tough non-conference slate. On the court, they rank inside the top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, and are led by excellent senior forward Ethan Happ. He's one of the most well rounded players in the country, with 19.2 points, 10.7 rebounds, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game so far. The only thing he can't do is shoot, but with D'Mitrik Trice and Brad Davison, the Badgers shoot 39.1% as a team from deep, which allows Happ the space he needs to thrive. They also take care of the ball really well, rarely turning it over, and partnered with their good defensive rebounding, opponents never get easy looks at the basket. I'm a huge fan of this team, and given the way Trice has been shooting so far this year, he and Happ may be the best 1-2 punch in the conference.
5. Indiana (9)
Record: 11-2, 2-0
My Thoughts: The Hoosiers are back. After two seasons of mediocrity, Indiana has come out strong, with victories over Marquette, Northwestern, Penn State, Louisville, and Butler. Their only came on the road at Arkansas and Duke, and they look poised to compete near the top of the Big Ten. Star freshman Romeo Langford has grabbed most of the headlines, and rightfully so given he leads the team with 17.5 points a game, but big man Juwan Morgan has been just as good, scoring 16.2 points a game to go along with 7.6 rebounds. Those two are so great at finishing around the rim, as is the entire team, and they shot 60.4% from two, which is third highest in the nation, and they prefer that avenue, scoring nearly 60% of their points from inside the arc. They are an inconsistent three point shooting team, but they have guys who can really shoot it like Aljami Durham and Evan Fitzner. They do struggle with turnovers, which may come down to playing a freshman at the point, but other than that, the offense is quite good. However, their defense is even better, limiting opponents from the three point line and rarely fouling. Even when they do, teams struggle from the foul line, making just 60% of their free throws against Indiana. I quite like the Hoosiers this year, although I think they are more of a second tier team than title contender.
6. Nebraska (8)
Record: 11-2, 1-1
My Thoughts: I really just want to talk about James Palmer here, but I'll give the Cornhuskers a breakdown as a whole first. They feature wins over Seton Hall, Clemson, Creighton, and Oklahoma State, with losses against Texas Tech and Minnesota. They have been pretty good defensively so far, as teams shoot just 26.6% from deep against the Huskers, and they also do a good job at getting in passing lanes and creating turnovers. On the offensive end, they are well balanced and can score in a variety of ways. They aren't a very deep team, so getting someone, probably Isaiah Roby, into foul trouble is pretty important, especially since this isn't a good rebounding team even with him on the floor. However, I wanted to talk about Palmer and how much I love him. He may be the most under appreciated player in the country, as he is a scorer, plain and simple, and a damn good one. He's averaging 19.6 points a game for Nebraska, and it feels like he hasn't even played his best yet. Maybe my favorite part of his game is his ability to get to the foul line. He draws 7 fouls a game, and he makes his free throws at a 83.5% clip, so that strategy is clearly very effective. His three point jumper has been improving all season, which just makes him that much more dangerous. He is a first team All Big Ten player, and yet he still feels undervalued by the nation as a whole. Learn the name and get on the bandwagon now.
7. Iowa (3)
Record: 11-2, 0-2
My Thoughts: Iowa is a very pleasing team to watch. They are good offensively, averaging 83.2 points a game and they have a few very fun players to watch on offense in Tyler Cook, Joe Wieskamp, and Jordan Bohannon. Cook actually leads the Hawkeyes in points, rebounds, and assists a game and has a little bit of Marvin Bagley to his game given his freakish athleticism and ability to play outside and beat his man off the dribble. The Hawkeyes are one of the best teams in the nation at getting to the free throw line and they also play at a fast tempo and get up a lot of threes. When it's working, it works well, as evidenced by wins over Oregon, UConn, Pittsburgh, and Iowa State. However, this is not a very good defensive unit, as outside of Cook, there isn't a lot of top shelf athleticism on the team, and they struggle at keeping their man in front when facing top teams, as evidenced by their blowout loss at Michigan State. Opponents can get to the rim and they don't encourage any resistance once they get there, since they don't have a good shot blocker. They also give up an alarming amount of offensive rebounds, which only helps their opposition get easy buckets close to the basket. They are sort of Marquette-lite. When they are making shots, they are very dangerous, but when they aren't, this is a team that can be taken down pretty easily.
8. Purdue (7)
Record: 8-5, 1-1
My Thoughts: I think my hate for Purdue is fairly well known, so allow me to break it down here. They are fairly good offensively, and by that I mean, Carsen Edwards is insanely good and he has like two talented teammates. Edwards is absolutely incredible, scoring 25.8 points a game this year, which obviously leads the team, and he makes 39.7% of his threes while dishing out 3.5 assists, which would be higher if he had a better supporting cast. As good as he is, he has one teammate in double figures in Ryan Cline, a sharpshooting guard. Except, Cline is very streaky and he can make 6 threes one game only to turn around and go 0-for in his next game. Other than those two, there isn't a player that would be in the rotation at, say, Michigan. That's why they have no wins against really good teams. Their best wins are Davidson on a neutral court, Maryland at home, and Belmont at home. Solid wins, no doubt, but given they had opportunities against Virginia Tech, Florida State, Michigan, Texas, and Notre Dame, and blew all of them, I question their ability to beat teams at the top of this conference without Edwards going off. Also, they suck at defending the three point line, with their opposition shooting 37% from three against them. That is far too high and more than likely a result of the inexperience on the roster showing as they struggle with defensive rotations. This seems like a classic 7-10 seed that wins it's first round game thanks to an insanely good star player before losing to a much better team in the round of 32, and they may not even be that good.
9. Maryland (5)
Record: 10-3, 1-1
My Thoughts: Maryland is a weird team to watch. They don't have any great wins, the best one is at home over Penn State, and have losses to Virginia, Purdue, and Seton Hall. The problem with Maryland thus far isn't a lack of talent. They have an incredible front court in Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith, who combine for 26.4 points, 16.8 rebounds, and 3.7 blocks a game. They can share the floor, which gives the Terps on of the strongest front courts in the nation. However, the team seems content to take a ton of threes and not pass the ball to their bigs. Anthony Cowan is an excellent player, and one of the least talked about studs in the Big Ten. However, he can sometimes be a little bit me-first, and I think he, along with freshmen wings Eric Ayala, Serrel Smith, and Aaron Wiggins, need to look inside to their ridiculously talented big men and let them thrive. A lot of the Terrapins offense comes from offensive rebounds, and it should be coming from post touches. They should want to do that, as once the defense collapses on Fernando or Smith, they'll have an open three. It doesn't help that they turn the ball over a lot, giving their big men even less opportunities to touch the ball. I think if they run more offense through Fernando and Smith, they will have more success, and could be one of the better teams in the Big Ten.
10. Minnesota (10)
Record: 11-2, 1-1
My Thoughts: The Golden Gophers are alright. I really don't know how to judge this team. On one hand, they hold victories over Texas A&M, Washington, Oklahoma State, and Nebraska, with losses to Boston College and Ohio State. That's a solid start to a resume, and partnered with walking double-double Jordan Murphy along with a pretty solid starting 5 around him, Minnesota looks pretty capable of making some noise in the Big Ten. They clean up on the glass thanks to Murphy and freshman big Daniel Oturo, and the return of sophomore Eric Curry can only help in that regard. They also do an excellent job of getting to the foul line, attempting 28.5 free throws a game. The front court is solid on the defensive end as well, and does a good job of erasing easy shots at the rim. However, the backcourt is a weakness. Amir Coffey is a poor man's James Palmer, I don't think Dupree McBrayer is very good, Gabe Kalschuer is a streaky shooter and can look overmatched at times as a freshman, and Isaiah Washington has been one of the most disappointing players in the country. They can't really shoot it, making just 30.6% of their threes, and the unit is bad defensively, giving up a 35.3% shooting percentage from deep and rarely getting steals. I really don't see it with this team, but if they win enough battles on the boards, I could see them hanging around on the bubble.
11. Northwestern (11)
Record: 9-4, 0-2
My Thoughts: I sort of like the Wildcats more than I should. They don't have any really bad losses, but also no really good wins. They lost to Fresno State, Indiana, Michigan, and Oklahoma, with their best wins coming over Utah, Georgia Tech, and DePaul. They like to slow the game down, and that really helps them thrive defensively. They get a lot of teams to take bad shots at the end of the shot clock, which is why opponents are only shooting 28.3% from three against the Cats. They also do a very good job at winning the boards, sitting at +3 on the season. Offensively, they are more solid than truly good. I think the reason for that is less than stellar point guard play, with Anthony Gaines really not looking the part of a Big Ten caliber floor general, and Ryan Greer is still young. Other than that, Vic Law has been excellent this season, averaging 19 points and 6.5 rebounds a game while shooting 40.8% from deep, but the rest of the team is pretty inconsistent from behind the arc. If guys like Ryan Taylor and AJ Turner can improve from deep during conference play, I think Northwestern can get into the tournament.
12. Penn State (13)
Record: 7-6, 0-2
My Thoughts: This is where I think the conference starts to fall off. The Nittany Lions are a very bad offensive team. Lamar Stevens has been increidlble, scoring 18.8 points a game and getting 8.2 rebounds, and freshman Rasir Bolton has stepped up and started scoring, averaging 14.2 points and shooting 43.7% from deep. However, outside of Bolton, this is a dreadful shooting team. They shoot 33.2% from behind the arc, but it doesn't help that they shoot 47.1% from inside it and 67.8% from the foul line. Offense has been hard to come by, which helps explains some very disappointing losses to DePaul and Bradley. Luckily, they play good enough defense to hang around in a lot of games. They are actually top 25 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, and they do a pretty good job of forcing turnovers, which leads to easy transition buckets which is huge for this team. I really don't think this is a good team, but they'll hang around enough that they'll eventually win a few games, as they showed with their win at Virginia Tech, and the wild finish in the Duquesne game.
13. Rutgers (12)
Record: 7-5, 0-2
My Thoughts: Rutgers is like Penn State, but worse, but somehow I like them more. It makes no sense, I know, but I feel like when you watch the Scarlet Knights, you can kind of see a good team buried in there. I don't know, maybe it's because I'm a Jersey native, I have friends at Rutgers, my dad is a RU alum, and I've never liked Penn State, but for some reason I just like this team. They are a pretty good defensive unit, and they excel at keeping teams off of the free throw line. They really are just tough to break down, and they sort of remind me of Baylor. It's not going to be a fun game to play and even if you win, you're going to be beaten down by the end of it. Offensively they are horrible. They cannot consistently score points, and really only Eugene Omoruyi has looked like someone who will be able to get a bucket whenever he wants. Still, they have a solid young core, with Tecxas transfer James Young and top 150 recruit Paul Mulcahy coming in next season, and I like Steve Pikiell as a coach, so I think Rutgers is on the upswing for the first time in a long time.
14. Illinois (14)
Record: 4-9, 0-2
My Thoughts: This team is pretty brutal to watch this year. It's pretty clear to see that Brad Underwood's system just hasn't been fully implemented yet, and that makes things tough in Champaign. The Fighting Illini just don't have the players Underwood likes, and given the fact it's a pressing system that relies on forcing turnovers, and they aren't doing any of that well, it's not going to work well this year for Illinois. The guard play is surprising alright, with Trent Frazier and Ayo Dosunmu being pretty good players and having solid years. But the wings and front court just aren't there yet, and without the right players buying into this system, I don't see Illinois being even close to good this season.
What I Saw
This is where I'll breakdown the previous week's games in a similar fashion to my Fast Break series. I'll offer my thoughts and observations from that slate and explain my changes, if any, to my power rankings all in this space. There obviously weren't any games this past week, so for now this is all I have here.
What to Watch
- Big Ten play starts back up with a nice matchup between Nebraska and Maryland. This game is actually going to be really interesting, as each team has a strength that matches up with an opponents weakness. For Nebraska, their ability to take care of the ball on offense and force turnovers on defense really matches up nicely with the sloppy play of the Terrapins and their fairly conservative defensive strategy. The Huskers should win the turnover battle fairly easily and it could lead to more possessions for Nebraska. However, Maryland's greatest strength is on the glass, and no one is confusing Nebraska for a dominant rebounding team. They give up 11.7 offensive rebounds a contest, so Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith could have a field day on the glass. That gets even more accentuated if Isaiah Roby is unable to go for the Cornhuskers, as his status is up in the air at the minute. I think this matchup favors Maryland thanks to that rebounding advantage, especially at home, but if Nebraska can speed up the game, they should be able to win.
- This should be a good test to see just how good Purdue is. They aren't playing some great team, this is a solid Iowa squad, and the Hawkeyes struggle defensively. Carsen Edwards should be able to dominate in this one, as Iowa has no real counter to him. However, I don't think Purdue wins this one. For one, I think the front court of Tyler Cook and and Luke Garza is an excellent matchup against Purdue's bigs on both ends of the floor. I think Garza will push around Matt Haarms and Grady Eifert cannot guard Cook. However, the real x-factor here is the three point line. Purdue can't defend it, and Iowa will punish them for that. I could see Edwards scoring 30 but Iowa making double digit threes as their more balanced attack gets it done in Mackey Arena.
- Arguably the best game of the week, Ohio State has to travel to East Lansing to take on Tom Izzo's Spartans. This is a really interesting game to me, as there are a few matchups that really interest me. The first is Kaleb Wesson against Nick Ward. Both are big, physical players, and their battles in the post are going to be huge in deciding this game. What stands out to me here is foul trouble. Both players are very good at drawing fouls, and they are also both very foul prone. If one of them can stay out of foul trouble, that is a huge advantage. If not, I think Michigan State would hold the advantage given they have Xavier Tillman and Kenny Goins capable of filling that role, while Ohio State would be forced to go with Kyle Young or play super small. Next up, I want to see Luther Muhammad on Joshua Langford. Langford has found consistency this season, scoring in double digits in every game but one, his last one. He is also struggling from three, shooting just 31.3% from deep after starting the season hot from deep. Muhammad may also be the best defender Langford has faced this season, or at least in a while, so he could give Langford fits. If Michigan State isn't getting production from him, things could go south. However, I think the Spartans win this one. They are at home, have the better offense, and I think Kaleb Wesson getting into foul trouble is a bigger loss for Ohio State than Nick Ward is for Michigan State. They are also very good at defending in the lane, and forcing Ohio State to make shots is the way to beat them, so I think the Spartans pull ahead late in a tough fought battle.
- Indiana travels to Ann Arbor to take on undefeated Michigan in the first real threat to knock off Michigan in 2019 (sorry Penn State). However, I think this challenge kind of falls apart pretty quickly and I think Michigan could turn this one into a blowout. The two losses Indiana are also, probably not coincidentally, the two games when the Hoosiers have turned the ball over the most. Michigan isn't a super agrresive team defensively, but they will certainly take steals when they get them. They had 11 in the win over Villanova, so they can capitalize on poor passes, and Zavier Simpson makes his living by harassing opposing guards. Can freshman Rob Phinisee handle that pressure for 40 minutes? His 4 turnover against Tre Jones lead me to believe he can't, and even if he can, I don't trust the wings to hold up against Michigan's defense, especially since they thrive on driving, which Michigan defends really beautifully. It really seems like a bad matchup for Indiana, and I think the Wolverines could win this one by a fairly large margin.
- Later on that same day, Nebraska will play Iowa in another good matchup. To me, this is a pretty simple one. Nebraska plays some pretty good defense and I think they have the ability to take Iowa out of their normal rhythm and force them to break down a good defense. Once again, a lot depends on the health of Isaiah Roby, but if he can go, the Cornhuskers should be able to match up well with the Iowa front court, and I think offensively they will be able to get to the rim against the Hawkeyes, especially James Palmer. It seems like Iowa won't have an answer defensively for Nebraska, and they will give the Huskers a big advantage.
- Purdue is going to get killed by Michigan State. In this preview of their game against Iowa, I said the two big factors were Iowa's frontcourt being able to guard Purdue's, and the Boilermakers struggles defending the three point arc. This game is going to be that, except Michigan State is a lot better than Iowa. Matt Haarms is going to get bullied against Nick Ward, and seeing as Purdue's opponents shoot 37% from three on the year, and Michigan State shoots 40.7% on the year, this just seems like a bloodbath. Additionally, Carsen Edwards will struggle against Cassius Winston, who is an underrated defender, and if Edwards scores an inefficient 20, that's a win for Michigan State and Purdue will have no shot.
Full Big Ten Schedule 1/2-1/8
1/2
Nebraska @ Maryland
Northwestern @ Michigan State
1/3
Penn State @ Michigan
Illinois @ Indiana
Iowa @ Purdue
Minnesota @ Wisconsin
1/5
Michigan State @ Ohio State
Maryland @ Rutgers
1/6
Indiana @ Michigan
Illinois @ Northwestern
Nebraska @ Iowa
Wisconsin @ Penn State
1/8
Maryland @ Minnesota
Purdue @ Michigan State
3 Questions
1. Is this the best conference in college basketball?
I think it is. As I mentioned yesterday, it is very hard to determine what the best conference is. Here's my reasoning for why I'm picking the Big Ten. I think this is the deepest conference in the nation. They've got 9 teams hanging around the top 25. Now, they do have more teams than some other conferences, but even on percentages, they beat out every other conference. The top 2 is on par with any other conference in the nation, and although the ACC is stronger in that second tier, the Big Ten is a lot better near the bottom than the ACC. Penn State and Rutgers are, in my opinion, better than Pitt, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Miami, and they hold wins in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge to prove it. I also think Purdue and Maryland are close to the top 25 than Syracuse and Clemson, further proving the depth here. Now, I did say the Big 12 is the most competitive conference, and that's true. Oklahoma State is a lot better than Illinois. But the top 11 teams in this conference are going to be playing a lot of close games, and I think that amount of quality teams makes this the best conference in the country.
2. Can they get double digit tournament bids?
I think it'll be tough. Looking at it now, the bottom 3 are all probably out of the conversation barring winning the conference tournament or a fairly drastic turnaround in conference play. I also think the two Michigan schools are close to locks at this point. It's obviously early and a lot of crazy things can happen during conference play, but it would take a lot to knock them out of the field. Realistically, Ohio State and Wisconsin are also going to be fine, I think. The question for me is how many of Indiana, Nebraska, Iowa, Purdue, Maryland, Minnesota, and Northwestern make the tournament. I think Nebraska and Purdue will get in on the strength of their star players who will win them enough games to go dancing. Indiana has a tough schedule, but that means a lot of quality wins available, and they have some nice victories on their resume already. I think 7 is the least they will get at this point. Iowa and Maryland should be good, especially with the weak bubble this year. Can Minnesota or Northwestern get in? I don't know. I'm a lot more confident in Northwestern than Minnesota, but I'm going to say they Big Ten gets 9 teams into March Madness.
3. How long can Michigan stay undefeated?
Had you asked me a month ago, my answer would have been much different. The Wolverines were coming a dominating win over Purdue, and had similarly dominating performances against Villanova and North Carolina. They seemed like an unstoppable defensive juggernaut, and I really thought they had a shot at an undefeated year. They have since struggled a little bit against some lesser competition, with close calls against Northwestern and Western Michigan, and they seem a lot more mortal. Still, three of their first four games come at home against some of the worse teams in the conference, and Indiana as I detailed above, so I think they'll start 4-0. They then travel to Wisconsin where they have to figure out how to stop Ethan Happ. They are projected to lose that game on KenPom, and I'm still torn on how I think that will go. A win and they could go the next month without losing before facing Michigan State twice in their last four games, but as of now I'll say Happ and the Badgers take them down.
1. Michigan (1)
Record: 13-0, 2-0
My Thoughts: The Wolverines have been great this season, as evidenced by their unblemished record heading into the resumption of conference play. They are excellent on the defensive end, allowing just 55 points a game this season and rank inside the top 5 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency. They really just do all the things you want. They aren't too aggressive, but they still get steals. They don't get a ton of blocks, but they are always in good defensive position to challenge shots and get rebounds, and don't foul often. They force teams off of the three point line with strong closeouts, but they don't overcommit and get beat to the basket. It's beautiful to watch as they have stifled some of the top teams in the nation, including Villanova, Providence, North Carolina, and Purdue. Offensively, they have a three point heavy attack, making 37.7% of their shots from behind the arc as a team, and they run a fairly simple but very effective offense that emphasizes spacing. The team is led on the defensive by Zavier Simpson, long a favorite of mine who has blown up this year with his great play. He doesn't score that much, but he averages 6.2 assists, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.5 steals a game, and his mentality and leadership have been key to their success. Offensively, Charles Matthews and Ignas Bradzeikis have gotten most of the attention, but Jordan Poole has been great as well, scoring 13.5 points a game and making 50% of his threes. This is a very dangerous team, and they are in the discussion for number one in the entire country.
2. Michigan State (2)
Record: 11-2, 2-0
My Thoughts: The Spartans have kind of surprised me this year. I didn't think they were a top-10 good team, but thus far they have been one of the best teams in the nation. With losses to Kansas and Louisville, the latter in overtime, and wins over UCLA, Texas, Iowa, and Florida, they have the resume. Their offense has been incredible to watch, largely thanks to Cassius Winston. Before this year, I questioned whether he could be a go-to scorer. Well, it turns out he can. He is scoring 17.5 points a game while shooting 45% from three. He is also an excellent floor general, dishing out 7.5 assists a game while only turning it over twice a contest. He, Nick Ward, and Joshua Langford have led Sparty to a top five offense in the country. They are money from deep, making 40.7% of their attempts from deep and Langford and Matt McQuaid join Winston in shooting over 40% from downtown. When they do miss, they can count on either Ward, Xavier Tillman, or Kenny Goins grabbing an offensive board. Defensively, they defend well on the interior, probably due to their two big men sharing the floor, and they feature one of the highest block rates in the country. Their one "weakness", if you can even call it that, is their inability to force turnovers, although that has more to do with a conservative defensive game plan than anything else. I really like this team and they should give Michigan a run for their money at the top of the conference.
3. Ohio State (6)
Record: 12-1, 2-0
My Thoughts: I don't think I was more wrong about any team in the country than the Buckeyes. I had them at tenth in my preseason predictions. I wasn't sold on the talent on the roster, and boy was I way off. They feature wins over Cincinnati and Creighton on the road, UCLA on a neutral, Minnesota at home, and their only loss came at home to Syracuse, the best team in the nation. They get it done first and foremost on the defensive end, as they do a great job at forcing bad shots. Teams have a 43.6% effective field goal percentage, fourteenth best defensive mark in the nation, the Buckeyes really just play harder than their opposition a lot of the time. Defensively, the play of freshman Luther Muhammad has really stood out. He's been OK offensively, but he's been a defensive stopper on the wing and player really well for the Buckeyes. Offensively, they struggle a little bit. Kaleb Wesson is a great post player and is very effective at what he does, and CJ Jackson is an excellent compliment as a sharpshooter. However, after those two, this isn't a very skilled offensive group, especially shooting the ball. I did underestimate this team, but I'm still not a huge fan of them. Are they a good team? Yes, but I don't think they are anywhere near their ranking of 14 in the AP Poll, instead falling more in the 18-25 range.
4. Wisconsin (4)
Record: 10-3, 2-0
My Thoughts: Perhaps the best three loss team in the nation, the Badgers have been very good thus far. With losses to Virginia, Marquette, and Western Kentucky along with victories over Stanford, Oklahoma, North Carolina State, and Iowa, the Badgers have proven they are legit after that tough non-conference slate. On the court, they rank inside the top 20 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, and are led by excellent senior forward Ethan Happ. He's one of the most well rounded players in the country, with 19.2 points, 10.7 rebounds, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game so far. The only thing he can't do is shoot, but with D'Mitrik Trice and Brad Davison, the Badgers shoot 39.1% as a team from deep, which allows Happ the space he needs to thrive. They also take care of the ball really well, rarely turning it over, and partnered with their good defensive rebounding, opponents never get easy looks at the basket. I'm a huge fan of this team, and given the way Trice has been shooting so far this year, he and Happ may be the best 1-2 punch in the conference.
5. Indiana (9)
Record: 11-2, 2-0
My Thoughts: The Hoosiers are back. After two seasons of mediocrity, Indiana has come out strong, with victories over Marquette, Northwestern, Penn State, Louisville, and Butler. Their only came on the road at Arkansas and Duke, and they look poised to compete near the top of the Big Ten. Star freshman Romeo Langford has grabbed most of the headlines, and rightfully so given he leads the team with 17.5 points a game, but big man Juwan Morgan has been just as good, scoring 16.2 points a game to go along with 7.6 rebounds. Those two are so great at finishing around the rim, as is the entire team, and they shot 60.4% from two, which is third highest in the nation, and they prefer that avenue, scoring nearly 60% of their points from inside the arc. They are an inconsistent three point shooting team, but they have guys who can really shoot it like Aljami Durham and Evan Fitzner. They do struggle with turnovers, which may come down to playing a freshman at the point, but other than that, the offense is quite good. However, their defense is even better, limiting opponents from the three point line and rarely fouling. Even when they do, teams struggle from the foul line, making just 60% of their free throws against Indiana. I quite like the Hoosiers this year, although I think they are more of a second tier team than title contender.
6. Nebraska (8)
Record: 11-2, 1-1
My Thoughts: I really just want to talk about James Palmer here, but I'll give the Cornhuskers a breakdown as a whole first. They feature wins over Seton Hall, Clemson, Creighton, and Oklahoma State, with losses against Texas Tech and Minnesota. They have been pretty good defensively so far, as teams shoot just 26.6% from deep against the Huskers, and they also do a good job at getting in passing lanes and creating turnovers. On the offensive end, they are well balanced and can score in a variety of ways. They aren't a very deep team, so getting someone, probably Isaiah Roby, into foul trouble is pretty important, especially since this isn't a good rebounding team even with him on the floor. However, I wanted to talk about Palmer and how much I love him. He may be the most under appreciated player in the country, as he is a scorer, plain and simple, and a damn good one. He's averaging 19.6 points a game for Nebraska, and it feels like he hasn't even played his best yet. Maybe my favorite part of his game is his ability to get to the foul line. He draws 7 fouls a game, and he makes his free throws at a 83.5% clip, so that strategy is clearly very effective. His three point jumper has been improving all season, which just makes him that much more dangerous. He is a first team All Big Ten player, and yet he still feels undervalued by the nation as a whole. Learn the name and get on the bandwagon now.
7. Iowa (3)
Record: 11-2, 0-2
My Thoughts: Iowa is a very pleasing team to watch. They are good offensively, averaging 83.2 points a game and they have a few very fun players to watch on offense in Tyler Cook, Joe Wieskamp, and Jordan Bohannon. Cook actually leads the Hawkeyes in points, rebounds, and assists a game and has a little bit of Marvin Bagley to his game given his freakish athleticism and ability to play outside and beat his man off the dribble. The Hawkeyes are one of the best teams in the nation at getting to the free throw line and they also play at a fast tempo and get up a lot of threes. When it's working, it works well, as evidenced by wins over Oregon, UConn, Pittsburgh, and Iowa State. However, this is not a very good defensive unit, as outside of Cook, there isn't a lot of top shelf athleticism on the team, and they struggle at keeping their man in front when facing top teams, as evidenced by their blowout loss at Michigan State. Opponents can get to the rim and they don't encourage any resistance once they get there, since they don't have a good shot blocker. They also give up an alarming amount of offensive rebounds, which only helps their opposition get easy buckets close to the basket. They are sort of Marquette-lite. When they are making shots, they are very dangerous, but when they aren't, this is a team that can be taken down pretty easily.
8. Purdue (7)
Record: 8-5, 1-1
My Thoughts: I think my hate for Purdue is fairly well known, so allow me to break it down here. They are fairly good offensively, and by that I mean, Carsen Edwards is insanely good and he has like two talented teammates. Edwards is absolutely incredible, scoring 25.8 points a game this year, which obviously leads the team, and he makes 39.7% of his threes while dishing out 3.5 assists, which would be higher if he had a better supporting cast. As good as he is, he has one teammate in double figures in Ryan Cline, a sharpshooting guard. Except, Cline is very streaky and he can make 6 threes one game only to turn around and go 0-for in his next game. Other than those two, there isn't a player that would be in the rotation at, say, Michigan. That's why they have no wins against really good teams. Their best wins are Davidson on a neutral court, Maryland at home, and Belmont at home. Solid wins, no doubt, but given they had opportunities against Virginia Tech, Florida State, Michigan, Texas, and Notre Dame, and blew all of them, I question their ability to beat teams at the top of this conference without Edwards going off. Also, they suck at defending the three point line, with their opposition shooting 37% from three against them. That is far too high and more than likely a result of the inexperience on the roster showing as they struggle with defensive rotations. This seems like a classic 7-10 seed that wins it's first round game thanks to an insanely good star player before losing to a much better team in the round of 32, and they may not even be that good.
9. Maryland (5)
Record: 10-3, 1-1
My Thoughts: Maryland is a weird team to watch. They don't have any great wins, the best one is at home over Penn State, and have losses to Virginia, Purdue, and Seton Hall. The problem with Maryland thus far isn't a lack of talent. They have an incredible front court in Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith, who combine for 26.4 points, 16.8 rebounds, and 3.7 blocks a game. They can share the floor, which gives the Terps on of the strongest front courts in the nation. However, the team seems content to take a ton of threes and not pass the ball to their bigs. Anthony Cowan is an excellent player, and one of the least talked about studs in the Big Ten. However, he can sometimes be a little bit me-first, and I think he, along with freshmen wings Eric Ayala, Serrel Smith, and Aaron Wiggins, need to look inside to their ridiculously talented big men and let them thrive. A lot of the Terrapins offense comes from offensive rebounds, and it should be coming from post touches. They should want to do that, as once the defense collapses on Fernando or Smith, they'll have an open three. It doesn't help that they turn the ball over a lot, giving their big men even less opportunities to touch the ball. I think if they run more offense through Fernando and Smith, they will have more success, and could be one of the better teams in the Big Ten.
10. Minnesota (10)
Record: 11-2, 1-1
My Thoughts: The Golden Gophers are alright. I really don't know how to judge this team. On one hand, they hold victories over Texas A&M, Washington, Oklahoma State, and Nebraska, with losses to Boston College and Ohio State. That's a solid start to a resume, and partnered with walking double-double Jordan Murphy along with a pretty solid starting 5 around him, Minnesota looks pretty capable of making some noise in the Big Ten. They clean up on the glass thanks to Murphy and freshman big Daniel Oturo, and the return of sophomore Eric Curry can only help in that regard. They also do an excellent job of getting to the foul line, attempting 28.5 free throws a game. The front court is solid on the defensive end as well, and does a good job of erasing easy shots at the rim. However, the backcourt is a weakness. Amir Coffey is a poor man's James Palmer, I don't think Dupree McBrayer is very good, Gabe Kalschuer is a streaky shooter and can look overmatched at times as a freshman, and Isaiah Washington has been one of the most disappointing players in the country. They can't really shoot it, making just 30.6% of their threes, and the unit is bad defensively, giving up a 35.3% shooting percentage from deep and rarely getting steals. I really don't see it with this team, but if they win enough battles on the boards, I could see them hanging around on the bubble.
11. Northwestern (11)
Record: 9-4, 0-2
My Thoughts: I sort of like the Wildcats more than I should. They don't have any really bad losses, but also no really good wins. They lost to Fresno State, Indiana, Michigan, and Oklahoma, with their best wins coming over Utah, Georgia Tech, and DePaul. They like to slow the game down, and that really helps them thrive defensively. They get a lot of teams to take bad shots at the end of the shot clock, which is why opponents are only shooting 28.3% from three against the Cats. They also do a very good job at winning the boards, sitting at +3 on the season. Offensively, they are more solid than truly good. I think the reason for that is less than stellar point guard play, with Anthony Gaines really not looking the part of a Big Ten caliber floor general, and Ryan Greer is still young. Other than that, Vic Law has been excellent this season, averaging 19 points and 6.5 rebounds a game while shooting 40.8% from deep, but the rest of the team is pretty inconsistent from behind the arc. If guys like Ryan Taylor and AJ Turner can improve from deep during conference play, I think Northwestern can get into the tournament.
12. Penn State (13)
Record: 7-6, 0-2
My Thoughts: This is where I think the conference starts to fall off. The Nittany Lions are a very bad offensive team. Lamar Stevens has been increidlble, scoring 18.8 points a game and getting 8.2 rebounds, and freshman Rasir Bolton has stepped up and started scoring, averaging 14.2 points and shooting 43.7% from deep. However, outside of Bolton, this is a dreadful shooting team. They shoot 33.2% from behind the arc, but it doesn't help that they shoot 47.1% from inside it and 67.8% from the foul line. Offense has been hard to come by, which helps explains some very disappointing losses to DePaul and Bradley. Luckily, they play good enough defense to hang around in a lot of games. They are actually top 25 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, and they do a pretty good job of forcing turnovers, which leads to easy transition buckets which is huge for this team. I really don't think this is a good team, but they'll hang around enough that they'll eventually win a few games, as they showed with their win at Virginia Tech, and the wild finish in the Duquesne game.
13. Rutgers (12)
Record: 7-5, 0-2
My Thoughts: Rutgers is like Penn State, but worse, but somehow I like them more. It makes no sense, I know, but I feel like when you watch the Scarlet Knights, you can kind of see a good team buried in there. I don't know, maybe it's because I'm a Jersey native, I have friends at Rutgers, my dad is a RU alum, and I've never liked Penn State, but for some reason I just like this team. They are a pretty good defensive unit, and they excel at keeping teams off of the free throw line. They really are just tough to break down, and they sort of remind me of Baylor. It's not going to be a fun game to play and even if you win, you're going to be beaten down by the end of it. Offensively they are horrible. They cannot consistently score points, and really only Eugene Omoruyi has looked like someone who will be able to get a bucket whenever he wants. Still, they have a solid young core, with Tecxas transfer James Young and top 150 recruit Paul Mulcahy coming in next season, and I like Steve Pikiell as a coach, so I think Rutgers is on the upswing for the first time in a long time.
14. Illinois (14)
Record: 4-9, 0-2
My Thoughts: This team is pretty brutal to watch this year. It's pretty clear to see that Brad Underwood's system just hasn't been fully implemented yet, and that makes things tough in Champaign. The Fighting Illini just don't have the players Underwood likes, and given the fact it's a pressing system that relies on forcing turnovers, and they aren't doing any of that well, it's not going to work well this year for Illinois. The guard play is surprising alright, with Trent Frazier and Ayo Dosunmu being pretty good players and having solid years. But the wings and front court just aren't there yet, and without the right players buying into this system, I don't see Illinois being even close to good this season.
What I Saw
This is where I'll breakdown the previous week's games in a similar fashion to my Fast Break series. I'll offer my thoughts and observations from that slate and explain my changes, if any, to my power rankings all in this space. There obviously weren't any games this past week, so for now this is all I have here.
What to Watch
- Big Ten play starts back up with a nice matchup between Nebraska and Maryland. This game is actually going to be really interesting, as each team has a strength that matches up with an opponents weakness. For Nebraska, their ability to take care of the ball on offense and force turnovers on defense really matches up nicely with the sloppy play of the Terrapins and their fairly conservative defensive strategy. The Huskers should win the turnover battle fairly easily and it could lead to more possessions for Nebraska. However, Maryland's greatest strength is on the glass, and no one is confusing Nebraska for a dominant rebounding team. They give up 11.7 offensive rebounds a contest, so Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith could have a field day on the glass. That gets even more accentuated if Isaiah Roby is unable to go for the Cornhuskers, as his status is up in the air at the minute. I think this matchup favors Maryland thanks to that rebounding advantage, especially at home, but if Nebraska can speed up the game, they should be able to win.
- This should be a good test to see just how good Purdue is. They aren't playing some great team, this is a solid Iowa squad, and the Hawkeyes struggle defensively. Carsen Edwards should be able to dominate in this one, as Iowa has no real counter to him. However, I don't think Purdue wins this one. For one, I think the front court of Tyler Cook and and Luke Garza is an excellent matchup against Purdue's bigs on both ends of the floor. I think Garza will push around Matt Haarms and Grady Eifert cannot guard Cook. However, the real x-factor here is the three point line. Purdue can't defend it, and Iowa will punish them for that. I could see Edwards scoring 30 but Iowa making double digit threes as their more balanced attack gets it done in Mackey Arena.
- Arguably the best game of the week, Ohio State has to travel to East Lansing to take on Tom Izzo's Spartans. This is a really interesting game to me, as there are a few matchups that really interest me. The first is Kaleb Wesson against Nick Ward. Both are big, physical players, and their battles in the post are going to be huge in deciding this game. What stands out to me here is foul trouble. Both players are very good at drawing fouls, and they are also both very foul prone. If one of them can stay out of foul trouble, that is a huge advantage. If not, I think Michigan State would hold the advantage given they have Xavier Tillman and Kenny Goins capable of filling that role, while Ohio State would be forced to go with Kyle Young or play super small. Next up, I want to see Luther Muhammad on Joshua Langford. Langford has found consistency this season, scoring in double digits in every game but one, his last one. He is also struggling from three, shooting just 31.3% from deep after starting the season hot from deep. Muhammad may also be the best defender Langford has faced this season, or at least in a while, so he could give Langford fits. If Michigan State isn't getting production from him, things could go south. However, I think the Spartans win this one. They are at home, have the better offense, and I think Kaleb Wesson getting into foul trouble is a bigger loss for Ohio State than Nick Ward is for Michigan State. They are also very good at defending in the lane, and forcing Ohio State to make shots is the way to beat them, so I think the Spartans pull ahead late in a tough fought battle.
- Indiana travels to Ann Arbor to take on undefeated Michigan in the first real threat to knock off Michigan in 2019 (sorry Penn State). However, I think this challenge kind of falls apart pretty quickly and I think Michigan could turn this one into a blowout. The two losses Indiana are also, probably not coincidentally, the two games when the Hoosiers have turned the ball over the most. Michigan isn't a super agrresive team defensively, but they will certainly take steals when they get them. They had 11 in the win over Villanova, so they can capitalize on poor passes, and Zavier Simpson makes his living by harassing opposing guards. Can freshman Rob Phinisee handle that pressure for 40 minutes? His 4 turnover against Tre Jones lead me to believe he can't, and even if he can, I don't trust the wings to hold up against Michigan's defense, especially since they thrive on driving, which Michigan defends really beautifully. It really seems like a bad matchup for Indiana, and I think the Wolverines could win this one by a fairly large margin.
- Later on that same day, Nebraska will play Iowa in another good matchup. To me, this is a pretty simple one. Nebraska plays some pretty good defense and I think they have the ability to take Iowa out of their normal rhythm and force them to break down a good defense. Once again, a lot depends on the health of Isaiah Roby, but if he can go, the Cornhuskers should be able to match up well with the Iowa front court, and I think offensively they will be able to get to the rim against the Hawkeyes, especially James Palmer. It seems like Iowa won't have an answer defensively for Nebraska, and they will give the Huskers a big advantage.
- Purdue is going to get killed by Michigan State. In this preview of their game against Iowa, I said the two big factors were Iowa's frontcourt being able to guard Purdue's, and the Boilermakers struggles defending the three point arc. This game is going to be that, except Michigan State is a lot better than Iowa. Matt Haarms is going to get bullied against Nick Ward, and seeing as Purdue's opponents shoot 37% from three on the year, and Michigan State shoots 40.7% on the year, this just seems like a bloodbath. Additionally, Carsen Edwards will struggle against Cassius Winston, who is an underrated defender, and if Edwards scores an inefficient 20, that's a win for Michigan State and Purdue will have no shot.
Full Big Ten Schedule 1/2-1/8
1/2
Nebraska @ Maryland
Northwestern @ Michigan State
1/3
Penn State @ Michigan
Illinois @ Indiana
Iowa @ Purdue
Minnesota @ Wisconsin
1/5
Michigan State @ Ohio State
Maryland @ Rutgers
1/6
Indiana @ Michigan
Illinois @ Northwestern
Nebraska @ Iowa
Wisconsin @ Penn State
1/8
Maryland @ Minnesota
Purdue @ Michigan State
3 Questions
1. Is this the best conference in college basketball?
I think it is. As I mentioned yesterday, it is very hard to determine what the best conference is. Here's my reasoning for why I'm picking the Big Ten. I think this is the deepest conference in the nation. They've got 9 teams hanging around the top 25. Now, they do have more teams than some other conferences, but even on percentages, they beat out every other conference. The top 2 is on par with any other conference in the nation, and although the ACC is stronger in that second tier, the Big Ten is a lot better near the bottom than the ACC. Penn State and Rutgers are, in my opinion, better than Pitt, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Miami, and they hold wins in the ACC-Big Ten Challenge to prove it. I also think Purdue and Maryland are close to the top 25 than Syracuse and Clemson, further proving the depth here. Now, I did say the Big 12 is the most competitive conference, and that's true. Oklahoma State is a lot better than Illinois. But the top 11 teams in this conference are going to be playing a lot of close games, and I think that amount of quality teams makes this the best conference in the country.
2. Can they get double digit tournament bids?
I think it'll be tough. Looking at it now, the bottom 3 are all probably out of the conversation barring winning the conference tournament or a fairly drastic turnaround in conference play. I also think the two Michigan schools are close to locks at this point. It's obviously early and a lot of crazy things can happen during conference play, but it would take a lot to knock them out of the field. Realistically, Ohio State and Wisconsin are also going to be fine, I think. The question for me is how many of Indiana, Nebraska, Iowa, Purdue, Maryland, Minnesota, and Northwestern make the tournament. I think Nebraska and Purdue will get in on the strength of their star players who will win them enough games to go dancing. Indiana has a tough schedule, but that means a lot of quality wins available, and they have some nice victories on their resume already. I think 7 is the least they will get at this point. Iowa and Maryland should be good, especially with the weak bubble this year. Can Minnesota or Northwestern get in? I don't know. I'm a lot more confident in Northwestern than Minnesota, but I'm going to say they Big Ten gets 9 teams into March Madness.
3. How long can Michigan stay undefeated?
Had you asked me a month ago, my answer would have been much different. The Wolverines were coming a dominating win over Purdue, and had similarly dominating performances against Villanova and North Carolina. They seemed like an unstoppable defensive juggernaut, and I really thought they had a shot at an undefeated year. They have since struggled a little bit against some lesser competition, with close calls against Northwestern and Western Michigan, and they seem a lot more mortal. Still, three of their first four games come at home against some of the worse teams in the conference, and Indiana as I detailed above, so I think they'll start 4-0. They then travel to Wisconsin where they have to figure out how to stop Ethan Happ. They are projected to lose that game on KenPom, and I'm still torn on how I think that will go. A win and they could go the next month without losing before facing Michigan State twice in their last four games, but as of now I'll say Happ and the Badgers take them down.
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