After the fist week of games, I'm back with the ACC Power Rankings. There weren't a ton of momentous games or upsets, but it's nice to have ACC play back. It's always one of my favorite conferences to watch thanks to all of the great teams. If you want to discuss anything in here with my, hit my up on Twitter @ThreePointRange.
Power Rankings
1. Duke (1)
Record: 12-1, 1-0
My Thoughts: Duke has obviously been excellent so far. The Blue Devils sit at 12-1 and are fresh off a 19 point victory over Clemson. Things seem to be going swimmingly for Coach K, but I think there is a small issues that hasn't been talked about enough. That is that Cam Reddish has been bad. One of the star studded freshmen trio and the one that people were saying had the highest ceiling entering the season, Cam has struggled to fit in. With Tre Jones, RJ Barrett, and Zion Williamson spending most of the time with the ball in their hands, Reddish has essentially been made into a spot up shooter, and he's really struggled. Over the last two games, he's scored 12 points on 2-15 shooting, including 1-9 from three, and he's committed 12 turnovers. For all the talk about how great Jack White has been this season, what hasn't been talked about is he's been great at the expense of Reddish. White is a much better spot up shooter than Reddish, and he hustles more, is a better rebounder, and fits with the rest of the roster better than Reddish has so far. There have been questions about Reddish's motor, and he certainly hasn't done himself any favors with is play recently. I think he'll go off at some point soon, but I'm not sold on him being an impact player all season.
2. Virginia (2)
Record: 13-0, 1-0
My Thoughts: I'm going to go more in depth on Virginia later on in the 3 Questions segment, but I love this team. I will say, in their last game, Braxton Key played the best I've seen him in a Virginia uniform. He was making shots and locked in on the defensive, and if he is playing like that all year, then the Hoos are even more dangerous than I thought.
3. Virginia Tech (4)
Record: 13-1, 2-0
My Thoughts: What has really impressed me so far about Virginia Tech is their depth. The Hokies have a consistent 7 man rotation, and it seems like everyone can do a little bit of everything. They have five players who you cannot leave open for a three, and even Kerry Blackshear has shown some touch from deep. They have multiple guys who can handle the ball, with Justin Robinson and Wabissa Bede handling most of the duties, but Nickeil Alexander-Walker also serves as a secondary playmaker. They are also really solid defenders, with no one standing out as a liability on that end, and many of the players have the ability to switch and guard pretty much anyone. The one concern would be the lack of interior size, but it hasn't really impacted them at all. I get a little more into the Hokies later on, but the ability of everyone in the rotation really stands out.
4. North Carolina (5)
Record: 11-3, 1-0
My Thoughts: I didn't get a chance to see the Tar Heels play Harvard or Pitt this week, but it looks as if the Tar Heels are still a force to be reckoned with. They're still playing at a high level offensively, and it seems like they have more guys playing well now than ever. Look out for them in ACC play.
5. Florida State (3)
Record: 12-2, 0-1
My Thoughts: It's really hard to big, sweeping generalizations from a team playing against Virginia. The Cavaliers defense is so stifling, it really is tough to judge an opposing team's offense. However, I haven't been sold on the Seminoles' half court offense for a while, and this game certainly did them no favors. They looked awful for 38 minutes against Virginia, and only went on a 14-0 run with a press against Virginia's bench squad. I think their biggest problem is they don't really have someone who can just go and get a bucket in the half court, especially near the end of the shot clock. They are a team of good not great shooters, they don't have a brilliant offensive system, and there really isn't anyone who is an isolation scorer. They do their best work in transition, and they really rely on the ability to penetrate and kick until the defense breaks down and they either have a wide open three or someone is able to get to the rim. I think they are going to be fine, but in slower, half court games, I wonder if they'll be able to get it done.
6. North Carolina State (6)
Record: 13-1, 1-0
My Thoughts: My love for the Pack is hopefully well known by this point. I really like Kevin Keatts, and the system he's instituted in Raleigh. I'm starting to think I might be a bit too high on NC State though. They didn't look great against Miami, and they very easily could have lost that game. They often play very sloppily offensively, and I think part of that comes from Markell Johnson inexplicably not playing enough. The point guard is not starting, and only played 23 minutes against the Canes. I think he is arguably the best shooter on the team, and I think he is a superior player to Braxton Beverly, who has been taking the minutes at the point. Their defense also has holes, and if you can beat that press, it's pretty easy to get a bucket. The biggest thing working in their favor is the weakness of a lot of other teams, but I think we are going to see them lose a few games soon.
7. Louisville (7)
Record: 10-4, 1-0
My Thoughts: I've been really impressed with Jordan Nwora this year. I expected him to be a breakout player this year, but he's been even better than I thought heading into the year. He's averaging 17.9 points a game with 8.3 rebounds, and he's making 39.5% of his threes. I really love watching him play, and he has a big chance to be a top player in the ACC and the entire country.
8. Syracuse (8)
Record: 10-4, 1-0
My Thoughts: As a Syracuse student and fan, I've seen a lot of the Orange this season. And one thing that has been true throughout the year is the team is best when Marek Dolezaj is playing center, and I think Jim Boeheim has finally realized that. He's started each of the last three games for the Orange, which are probably not coincidentally when Syracuse has looked their best since a late November. He's not the biggest guy or the best rebounder, but what he does bring to the table is the best offensive game of the three centers, and he can space the floor a little, which allows the rest of the team to play at its best. Pascal Chukwu and Bourama Sidibe have roles on this team, but I think for this team to be at it's best, Marek needs minutes.
9. Clemson (9)
Record: 10-4, 0-1
My Thoughts: The Tigers have just a brutal opener to ACC play. They started off with Duke, and for the rest of January, they will play Syracuse in the Carrier Dome, host Virginia and Georgia Tech, then play away games at Florida State and North Carolina State, before ending the month at home against Pittsburgh. That is a brutal stretch, and the Tigers could realistically be 2-5 at the end of January, which is not ideal for their tournament hopes. A win in any of the tougher games would be huge, as they need to pick up a resume boosting win. The bright side for Clemson is that Pitt game brings on a stretch against the bottom of the conference, with Wake Forest and Georgia Tech next before a big opportunity at home against Virginia Tech. I think Clemson is good, but they may have a bad record for a while.
10. Notre Dame (10)
Record: 10-5, 0-2
My Thoughts: The Fighting Irish are not going to win a lot of games in the ACC this year. They just don't have the veteran players and experience yet, as they are basically entirely freshmen team this season. The one guy returning from last season's team is TJ Gibbs, and he seems to be a lot more comfortable now than he was earlier in the year. Gibbs has led the team in scoring in the last 3 games, and he's averaging 14.7 points a game currently on the year. He's also leading Notre Dame in assists with 3.9 a game, and he's shooting 37% from three, although he is taking on a pretty big offensive load. I have been a huge fan of his for a while, and he sort of had a breakout year last season, and he's taking his chance to be the alpha on this team.
11. Miami (13)
Record: 8-6, 0-2
My Thoughts: I think Miami is a good basketball team. I just don't think they have the depth to win games in the ACC. They played 30 minutes with North Carolina State, and they were in the game for the first half against Louisville. But with the Hurricanes only playing seven guys, and that's not by choice, but necessity, it really just doesn't seem like a team that has the horses to go toe to toe with a lot of the teams in this conference, especially when they have even a little bit of foul trouble. They really miss Dewan Hernandez, formerly Dewan Huell, who was the leading returning scorer, and he would've given them an inside presence on the offensive end, but he's been ruled ineligible by the NCAA. Because when you look at this roster, especially the starting lineup, it's pretty good. Chris Lykes is awesome, Zach Johnson has been really good, I really like Antony Lawrence, DJ Vasiljevic is a a good shooter, Ebuka Izundu is a good shot blocker and rebounder, and like there's a solid core here that is talented enough to win games in the ACC. But they just don't have enough depth to keep those guys fresh, withstand fouls and injuries, and go a full season in the ACC.
12. Pittsburgh (11)
Record: 10-4, 0-1
My Thoughts: Xavier Johnson has been a revelation for the Panthers. Entering Pittsburgh as a three star guard ranked outside of the top 200, Johnson has been the best player for Pitt this year, and I love watching him play. He's scoring 16.1 points a game, which leads the team, and also leads the team with 4.8 assists. He also gets 3.6 rebounds and shoots 40% from three. He's still struggling with turnovers, but he's a stud, and in a league with a lot of freshmen stars, he's by far the most underrated in my mind.
13. Boston College (12)
Record: 9-4, 0-1
My Thoughts: The Eagles lost a game to Virginia Tech that was closer than I thought it would be, especially without Winston Tabbs. Jarius Hamilton had a nice game, and he was a guy I was really high on coming into the year, so it's good to see him coming along.
14. Georgia Tech (15)
Record: 9-5, 1-0
My Thoughts: These bottom two teams played each other in a game I didn't watch, and I likely won't be watching a lot of their games throughout the year, so fair warning to fans of the Yellow Jackets and Demon Deacons. In this space, I want to talk about Jordan Usher, a transfer from USC who has been heavily linked to Georgia Tech and was at the game on Saturday. He has attitude issues, he was basically kicked off the team at USC, but he's very talented and was a borderline top 100 recruit coming out of high school. He was in the rotation for the Trojans, and has two 22 point performances this season. He would be a nice pickup for Josh Pastner, and he could be an impact player in the ACC in a year and a half.
15. Wake Forest (14)
Record: 7-6, 0-1
My Thoughts: So I don't think Danny Manning should be the coach of Wake Forest after this season ends. He's made one NCAA Tournament in his tenure in Winston-Salem, and they lost in the First Four that season. It's not like there hasn't been talent. That tournament team had a lottery pick in John Collins, and that's been the only winning season in his tenure. Last season, they had Keyshawn Woods, who is currently a key member of a very good Ohio State team, and this year they have Jaylen Hoard, one of the top recruits in the nation. I want to look at some potential hires to take over the program. Mike Rhoades at VCU has done a very good job both with them and Rice, and he has the Rams as one of the best defensive units in the country. Casey Alexander at Lipscomb has that program doing really well, as does Ritchie McKay at Liberty. I would go hard after these three guys, however. Earl Grant at Charleston has been great, and he's led to Cougars to three, soon to be four, straight winning seasons, and had them in the tournament last season. Pat Kelsey has Winthrop near the top of the Big South, and they have had winning seasons every year since 2014, his second year in charge. Finally, the guy that would be my choice is Wes Miller at UNC Greensboro. The Spartans currently have 2 losses to LSU and Kentucky, and they've been rolling through the Southern Conference the past few years, including playing Gonzaga super close in the tournament last year. He's a former UNC player, so he'd win the press conference, and I think he'd be a great fit.
What I Saw
- Notre Dame 66 @ Virginia Tech 81: One thing that really impressed me about Virginia Tech's game was their resiliency. This game was closer than the score made it appears. Notre Dame really hung around in this one, and they went on a few runs to keep it close, even cutting the lead down to 2 at one point. But Virginia Tech never let the game get away from them, and a different player would step up and hit a big shot every time. It would be Ty Outlaw one time, Ahmed Hill the next, and then Justin Robinson would get in on the fun. With the way they can shoot the ball, they are going to be dangerous, but the fact they are able to stay in games and never take that dagger shot is huge.
- NC State 87 @ Miami 82: This game was not ideal for North Carolina State. They were very sloppy with the ball throughout, and they actually lost the turnover battle 16-7 in this one. I don't think they are going to win a lot of games with a -9 turnover margin, especially since the Wolfpack thrive on forcing turnovers. That's a worrisome trend, and one they will need to correct as ACC play goes on. Shifting gears to the Hurricanes, I love Chris Lykes. He has 28 points in this game, and the 5'7" point guard dynamo is incredible. He is so quick with the ball in his hands, and he has a great shooting stroke as well. If you haven't seen him play yet, I recommend checking him out.
- Syracuse 72 @ Notre Dame 62: This is the first time in a long time I watched Syracuse play basketball and didn't hate what I saw on the offensive end. They looked like they had an actual plan attacking the Notre Dame defense, and they were hitting shots from deep when they got the opportunities. Speaking of which, Elijah Hughes has been really great shooting from deep, and he did it again today. He had 22 points, including 6 made threes, and he also had 10 rebounds. He's been a revelation after transferring from East Carolina. His three point percentage has a jumped nearly 10% after the year off, and he has been a big contributor to Syracuse's success this year.
- Florida State 52 @ Virginia 65: I would just like to point out my keys to the game in my preview of this matchup in last week's ACC Breakdown were turnovers and free throws. I said Florida State would have to win the turnover battle and keep Virginia off the foul line to win, but that I didn't think they could do it, which would lead to Virginia controlling the tempo and winning the game. Let's look at what happened. Prior to Virginia emptying the bench with roughly 2 minutes left, the Cavs had 5 turnovers, the Roles had 15. At the time, Florida State had attempted 17 free throws to Virginia's 18, and had made 10 compared to 16. Florida State didn't do the two things I thought they need to do, and they trailed by 27. Now, even I didn't anticipate that sort of performance out of the Hoos, but I just wanted to point out my own success, so maybe now you have something to think about when reading my game previews.
- Clemson 68 @ Duke 87: Duke's really good. I don't think I needed to state that. But seriously, the way this team dominates on both ends of the floor is breathtaking to watch. Make no mistake: this is not a bad Clemson team. The senior core of Marcquise Reed, Shelton Mitchell, Elijah Thomas, and you can throw David Skara in there as well, is very talented. Reed entered the game as the third leading scorer in the ACC, and he looked good, with 15 and 8 and connecting on both of his threes. But Clemson turned it over 18 times, an absolute death sentence against Duke. The Blue Devils also barely had Cam Reddish, who was saddled with foul trouble for much of the game, and was ineffective in the minutes he did play. The first half was pretty well contested, with Clemson letting the game get away from them a little in the last 4 minutes, but only trailed at the half. Then Duke seemed to just jump into another gear, starting the second half on a 14-0 run. I mean Zion had 25 and 10 and threw down a 360 dunk. They just do so much so well, and there's a reason I have them at #1 in my Power Rankings.
- Miami 73 @ Louisville 90: Louisville really bounced back from their loss to Kentucky really nicely with an impressive performance against Miami. The Cardinals were very balanced, with 5 players in double figures, including Jordan Nwora, who I highlighted earlier. I thought Malik Williams was really impressive, getting 19 points along with 11 rebounds, 6 of which game on the offensive end. He's always been talented, and with more performances like this one, he's going to be starting and Louisville will be even more dangerous.
What To Watch
- Talk about a great game to start of the week. North Carolina will face in-state rival North Carolina State in a game that could announce NC State to the national stage. Can they do it? I'm going to say yes. The Tar Heels have been fairly lose with the ball, especially freshman point guard Coby White. That's really not what you want to see against a Wolfpack team that will feast on those turnovers. They are forcing them on the seventh highest rate in the country, and I think they will be able to do that against the Tar Heels. On the other end, North Carolina isn't exactly known for its defense, relying on outscoring teams like they did against Gonzaga to get victories. We've seen that if a team can disrupt that offense rhythm, like Michigan and Kentucky did, the Tar Heels defense isn't good enough to grind out games. I also think this game means more to NC State than UNC, as it's at home against a team that has looked at them as the "little brother" for years. On the national stage, the Wolfpack will prove they aren't the little brother anymore.
- Clemson travels to the Carrier Dome on Wednesday night for a game against Syracuse that is sort of huge for both teams. For Syracuse, they need to be able to defend their home court to build up their tournament resume, especially against a team that is roughly as good as they are. Clemson will be looking for a big road win in ACC play, and as I mentioned earlier, they have a gauntlet schedule approaching, so a win here would alleviate some concerns. However, I don't think the Tigers will be able to pull it out. Am I biased? Maybe a little. However, it should be noted that I also have some numbers to back me up. For one, Clemson turns the ball over at one of the higher rates in the country, and that is a recipe for disaster against the Syracuse zone, which loves to tip passes and get steals. The Orange also don't make things easy for teams scoring on the interior, which is where Clemson is any it's best on the offensive end. When Cuse has the ball, I think they can exploit some bad defense around the arc for the Tigers, especially in transition. Syracuse doesn't shoot it especially well, but they've been better at taking good looks of late, and if Elijah Hughes can stay hot, things aren't looking good for Clemson. Give me the Orange in this one.
- Miami will travel to face their in-state conference rivals Florida State, and things aren't looking good for the Hurricanes for two reasons. First, as I mentioned earlier, Miami has very little depth, ranking 340 in bench minutes at roughly 20%. It wouldn't be shocking to see the Canes get fatigued, especially against Florida State, who is 32 in bench minutes at 38.5%. They can keep sending fresh bodies at a tired Miami team, and that could make the other point tip even more in Florida State's favor. The Seminoles are an excellent offensive rebounding team in the country, ranking inside the top 20. Miami hasn't been great about keeping teams off the offensive glass, and if they have tired legs against an onslaught on the glass from the Noles, I really don't like their chances.
- Hey remember what I said about Clemson's turnover issues and poor three point defense? That applies against Virginia as well, as the Hoos are one of the best three point shooting teams in the nation, and they are also one of the stingiest on the defense end, and they punish mistakes. I honestly don't think I need to say much more than this, but one player to watch is Kyle Guy, who could have a field day from deep.
- I'm actually quite fascinated by Louisville's trip to Chapel Hill this weekend. The Cardinals are a rock solid team, and I was impressed by their performance against Miami. I think they can control the tempo, which would be huge for their chances, although I don't know if they can stop the Heels defensively. For one, they have struggled a bit defending the three point arc, and that seems less than ideal against a North Carolina team with some great shooters. They also don't really force turnovers, and I don't see their defense bothering UNC enough to slow down their high powered offense. I also don't know if North Carolina can avoid fouling and keeping the Cardinals off the foul line, so there should be offensive fireworks, which heavily favors the Tar Heels.
- Duke and Florida State are two fairly similar teams. The difference is Duke has more talent. They both play lots of athletic wings who want to force turnovers and get out in transition. As I mentioned earlier, Florida State has turnover issues, which seems like it'd be a matchup for Duke. And it is, as Tre Jones, RJ Barrett, and Zion Williamson are just waiting to go put on a show in the open court. When two teams with similar styles are matched up, it's best to take the one with more talent, and that's Duke.
Full ACC Schedule 1/7-1/13
1/8
Duke @ Wake Forest
North Carolina @ North Carolina State
1/9
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech
Clemson @ Syracuse
Louisville @ Pittsburgh
Virginia @ Boston College
Miami @ Florida State
1/12
Virginia @ Clemson
Louisville @ North Carolina
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina State
Boston College @ Notre Dame
Duke @ Florida State
Wake Forest @ Miami
Georgia Tech @ Syracuse
3 Questions
1. How long will Virginia stay undefeated?
The Cavaliers came out and dominated a good Florida State team on Saturday, and looked like arguably the best team in the country, although I don't think Virginia fans will like their ranking in my latest Top 25 Breakdown. Still, they remain undefeated on the year, with wins over Wisconsin, Maryland, VCU, and the aforementioned Noles. Their defense is as good as ever, and they have more offensive firepower than in the past. I don't think they'll have any sort of problems with their games on the road this week against Boston College and Clemson. Things then ramp up in difficulty with Virginia Tech at home. I really like the Hokies (more on them in a minute), but I don't think they will hold up well against the Hoos defense. That brings us to January 19, when Virginia heads to Cameron Indoor Stadium for a highly anticipated matchup against Duke. And then Virginia faithful with probably not like this prediction, but I don't see them getting past that game without a loss. On the road, in one of the toughest environments in college basketball, against one of the most talented teams in the sport, and a team that has the potential to speed up Virginia and take them out of what they want to do? Not the ideal matchup. I don't know if Virginia will drop another regular season game (maybe when they come to the Dome on March 4- Go Orange), but I don't think they escape January undefeated.
2. How good is Virginia Tech?
In my aforementioned Top 25, I have Virginia Tech at 7. I really like the Hokies, I'm a sucker for teams who can shoot it from deep, if that wasn't apparent from the name of my blog, and there seems to be a lack of top teams at the moment. With that said, I don't view them as one of the elite teams in college basketball (Duke, Michigan, Tennessee, Virginia, Michigan State, Gonzaga), but I think they are in that second tier, although probably closer to the 10-12 range in my mind. They have road matchups at Virginia and North Carolina coming up, and they should tell us a lot about this team.
3. How many tournament team are there in the ACC? (credit @fivepillarhoos on Twitter)
I was asked this on Twitter, if you have any questions you want me to answer, feel free to ask, and I think it's an interesting one to break down. I'd break the conference into 5 categories:
Locks: Duke, Virginia
Almost There: Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, North Carolina, Florida State, Louisville
Bubble: Syracuse, Clemson, Notre Dame
Better Luck Next Year: Miami, Boston College, Pitt, Georgia Tech
Wake Forest: Wake Forest
At the moment, it's hard to see a scenario where either Duke or Virginia aren't dancing, barring them losing out or something insane like that. The "Almost There" category is for teams who just need to stay the course during conference play, pick up one or two nice wins, and they'll be in. They all have a resume headlining win from non-conference play (Purdue, Auburn, Gonzaga, Purdue, Michigan State) and have avoided bad losses, with the exception of Va Tech losing to Penn State. Still, they should all go dancing. I don't think Miami, BC, Pitt, or Georgia Tech will come close to the tournament barring drastic turnarounds or winning the ACC tournament, and Wake Forest is in it's own little tier. That leaves us with Syracuse and Clemson. To me, and I could very well be biased as a Syracuse student and fan, I think the Orange have a better chance. They have the home loss to Old Dominion and neutral court losses to UConn and Oregon, but that away win at Ohio State is awfully nice. Clemson doesn't have any bad losses, but their best win is against Lipscomb at home. I also think Syracuse is getting better with Frank Howard healthy, and they have a much better chance to knock off one of the elite teams in the ACC with their zone defense, especially if Tyus Battle gets hot. As long as they avoid bad losses, which is far from a guarantee, I think Syracuse will get in, and Clemson needs to pull out a big win, or else I think they just miss out on the bubble. So I'll say the ACC gets 8 teams: Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, NC State, UNC, Florida State, Louisville, and Syracuse.
Power Rankings
1. Duke (1)
Record: 12-1, 1-0
My Thoughts: Duke has obviously been excellent so far. The Blue Devils sit at 12-1 and are fresh off a 19 point victory over Clemson. Things seem to be going swimmingly for Coach K, but I think there is a small issues that hasn't been talked about enough. That is that Cam Reddish has been bad. One of the star studded freshmen trio and the one that people were saying had the highest ceiling entering the season, Cam has struggled to fit in. With Tre Jones, RJ Barrett, and Zion Williamson spending most of the time with the ball in their hands, Reddish has essentially been made into a spot up shooter, and he's really struggled. Over the last two games, he's scored 12 points on 2-15 shooting, including 1-9 from three, and he's committed 12 turnovers. For all the talk about how great Jack White has been this season, what hasn't been talked about is he's been great at the expense of Reddish. White is a much better spot up shooter than Reddish, and he hustles more, is a better rebounder, and fits with the rest of the roster better than Reddish has so far. There have been questions about Reddish's motor, and he certainly hasn't done himself any favors with is play recently. I think he'll go off at some point soon, but I'm not sold on him being an impact player all season.
2. Virginia (2)
Record: 13-0, 1-0
My Thoughts: I'm going to go more in depth on Virginia later on in the 3 Questions segment, but I love this team. I will say, in their last game, Braxton Key played the best I've seen him in a Virginia uniform. He was making shots and locked in on the defensive, and if he is playing like that all year, then the Hoos are even more dangerous than I thought.
3. Virginia Tech (4)
Record: 13-1, 2-0
My Thoughts: What has really impressed me so far about Virginia Tech is their depth. The Hokies have a consistent 7 man rotation, and it seems like everyone can do a little bit of everything. They have five players who you cannot leave open for a three, and even Kerry Blackshear has shown some touch from deep. They have multiple guys who can handle the ball, with Justin Robinson and Wabissa Bede handling most of the duties, but Nickeil Alexander-Walker also serves as a secondary playmaker. They are also really solid defenders, with no one standing out as a liability on that end, and many of the players have the ability to switch and guard pretty much anyone. The one concern would be the lack of interior size, but it hasn't really impacted them at all. I get a little more into the Hokies later on, but the ability of everyone in the rotation really stands out.
4. North Carolina (5)
Record: 11-3, 1-0
My Thoughts: I didn't get a chance to see the Tar Heels play Harvard or Pitt this week, but it looks as if the Tar Heels are still a force to be reckoned with. They're still playing at a high level offensively, and it seems like they have more guys playing well now than ever. Look out for them in ACC play.
5. Florida State (3)
Record: 12-2, 0-1
My Thoughts: It's really hard to big, sweeping generalizations from a team playing against Virginia. The Cavaliers defense is so stifling, it really is tough to judge an opposing team's offense. However, I haven't been sold on the Seminoles' half court offense for a while, and this game certainly did them no favors. They looked awful for 38 minutes against Virginia, and only went on a 14-0 run with a press against Virginia's bench squad. I think their biggest problem is they don't really have someone who can just go and get a bucket in the half court, especially near the end of the shot clock. They are a team of good not great shooters, they don't have a brilliant offensive system, and there really isn't anyone who is an isolation scorer. They do their best work in transition, and they really rely on the ability to penetrate and kick until the defense breaks down and they either have a wide open three or someone is able to get to the rim. I think they are going to be fine, but in slower, half court games, I wonder if they'll be able to get it done.
6. North Carolina State (6)
Record: 13-1, 1-0
My Thoughts: My love for the Pack is hopefully well known by this point. I really like Kevin Keatts, and the system he's instituted in Raleigh. I'm starting to think I might be a bit too high on NC State though. They didn't look great against Miami, and they very easily could have lost that game. They often play very sloppily offensively, and I think part of that comes from Markell Johnson inexplicably not playing enough. The point guard is not starting, and only played 23 minutes against the Canes. I think he is arguably the best shooter on the team, and I think he is a superior player to Braxton Beverly, who has been taking the minutes at the point. Their defense also has holes, and if you can beat that press, it's pretty easy to get a bucket. The biggest thing working in their favor is the weakness of a lot of other teams, but I think we are going to see them lose a few games soon.
7. Louisville (7)
Record: 10-4, 1-0
My Thoughts: I've been really impressed with Jordan Nwora this year. I expected him to be a breakout player this year, but he's been even better than I thought heading into the year. He's averaging 17.9 points a game with 8.3 rebounds, and he's making 39.5% of his threes. I really love watching him play, and he has a big chance to be a top player in the ACC and the entire country.
8. Syracuse (8)
Record: 10-4, 1-0
My Thoughts: As a Syracuse student and fan, I've seen a lot of the Orange this season. And one thing that has been true throughout the year is the team is best when Marek Dolezaj is playing center, and I think Jim Boeheim has finally realized that. He's started each of the last three games for the Orange, which are probably not coincidentally when Syracuse has looked their best since a late November. He's not the biggest guy or the best rebounder, but what he does bring to the table is the best offensive game of the three centers, and he can space the floor a little, which allows the rest of the team to play at its best. Pascal Chukwu and Bourama Sidibe have roles on this team, but I think for this team to be at it's best, Marek needs minutes.
9. Clemson (9)
Record: 10-4, 0-1
My Thoughts: The Tigers have just a brutal opener to ACC play. They started off with Duke, and for the rest of January, they will play Syracuse in the Carrier Dome, host Virginia and Georgia Tech, then play away games at Florida State and North Carolina State, before ending the month at home against Pittsburgh. That is a brutal stretch, and the Tigers could realistically be 2-5 at the end of January, which is not ideal for their tournament hopes. A win in any of the tougher games would be huge, as they need to pick up a resume boosting win. The bright side for Clemson is that Pitt game brings on a stretch against the bottom of the conference, with Wake Forest and Georgia Tech next before a big opportunity at home against Virginia Tech. I think Clemson is good, but they may have a bad record for a while.
10. Notre Dame (10)
Record: 10-5, 0-2
My Thoughts: The Fighting Irish are not going to win a lot of games in the ACC this year. They just don't have the veteran players and experience yet, as they are basically entirely freshmen team this season. The one guy returning from last season's team is TJ Gibbs, and he seems to be a lot more comfortable now than he was earlier in the year. Gibbs has led the team in scoring in the last 3 games, and he's averaging 14.7 points a game currently on the year. He's also leading Notre Dame in assists with 3.9 a game, and he's shooting 37% from three, although he is taking on a pretty big offensive load. I have been a huge fan of his for a while, and he sort of had a breakout year last season, and he's taking his chance to be the alpha on this team.
11. Miami (13)
Record: 8-6, 0-2
My Thoughts: I think Miami is a good basketball team. I just don't think they have the depth to win games in the ACC. They played 30 minutes with North Carolina State, and they were in the game for the first half against Louisville. But with the Hurricanes only playing seven guys, and that's not by choice, but necessity, it really just doesn't seem like a team that has the horses to go toe to toe with a lot of the teams in this conference, especially when they have even a little bit of foul trouble. They really miss Dewan Hernandez, formerly Dewan Huell, who was the leading returning scorer, and he would've given them an inside presence on the offensive end, but he's been ruled ineligible by the NCAA. Because when you look at this roster, especially the starting lineup, it's pretty good. Chris Lykes is awesome, Zach Johnson has been really good, I really like Antony Lawrence, DJ Vasiljevic is a a good shooter, Ebuka Izundu is a good shot blocker and rebounder, and like there's a solid core here that is talented enough to win games in the ACC. But they just don't have enough depth to keep those guys fresh, withstand fouls and injuries, and go a full season in the ACC.
12. Pittsburgh (11)
Record: 10-4, 0-1
My Thoughts: Xavier Johnson has been a revelation for the Panthers. Entering Pittsburgh as a three star guard ranked outside of the top 200, Johnson has been the best player for Pitt this year, and I love watching him play. He's scoring 16.1 points a game, which leads the team, and also leads the team with 4.8 assists. He also gets 3.6 rebounds and shoots 40% from three. He's still struggling with turnovers, but he's a stud, and in a league with a lot of freshmen stars, he's by far the most underrated in my mind.
13. Boston College (12)
Record: 9-4, 0-1
My Thoughts: The Eagles lost a game to Virginia Tech that was closer than I thought it would be, especially without Winston Tabbs. Jarius Hamilton had a nice game, and he was a guy I was really high on coming into the year, so it's good to see him coming along.
14. Georgia Tech (15)
Record: 9-5, 1-0
My Thoughts: These bottom two teams played each other in a game I didn't watch, and I likely won't be watching a lot of their games throughout the year, so fair warning to fans of the Yellow Jackets and Demon Deacons. In this space, I want to talk about Jordan Usher, a transfer from USC who has been heavily linked to Georgia Tech and was at the game on Saturday. He has attitude issues, he was basically kicked off the team at USC, but he's very talented and was a borderline top 100 recruit coming out of high school. He was in the rotation for the Trojans, and has two 22 point performances this season. He would be a nice pickup for Josh Pastner, and he could be an impact player in the ACC in a year and a half.
15. Wake Forest (14)
Record: 7-6, 0-1
My Thoughts: So I don't think Danny Manning should be the coach of Wake Forest after this season ends. He's made one NCAA Tournament in his tenure in Winston-Salem, and they lost in the First Four that season. It's not like there hasn't been talent. That tournament team had a lottery pick in John Collins, and that's been the only winning season in his tenure. Last season, they had Keyshawn Woods, who is currently a key member of a very good Ohio State team, and this year they have Jaylen Hoard, one of the top recruits in the nation. I want to look at some potential hires to take over the program. Mike Rhoades at VCU has done a very good job both with them and Rice, and he has the Rams as one of the best defensive units in the country. Casey Alexander at Lipscomb has that program doing really well, as does Ritchie McKay at Liberty. I would go hard after these three guys, however. Earl Grant at Charleston has been great, and he's led to Cougars to three, soon to be four, straight winning seasons, and had them in the tournament last season. Pat Kelsey has Winthrop near the top of the Big South, and they have had winning seasons every year since 2014, his second year in charge. Finally, the guy that would be my choice is Wes Miller at UNC Greensboro. The Spartans currently have 2 losses to LSU and Kentucky, and they've been rolling through the Southern Conference the past few years, including playing Gonzaga super close in the tournament last year. He's a former UNC player, so he'd win the press conference, and I think he'd be a great fit.
What I Saw
- Notre Dame 66 @ Virginia Tech 81: One thing that really impressed me about Virginia Tech's game was their resiliency. This game was closer than the score made it appears. Notre Dame really hung around in this one, and they went on a few runs to keep it close, even cutting the lead down to 2 at one point. But Virginia Tech never let the game get away from them, and a different player would step up and hit a big shot every time. It would be Ty Outlaw one time, Ahmed Hill the next, and then Justin Robinson would get in on the fun. With the way they can shoot the ball, they are going to be dangerous, but the fact they are able to stay in games and never take that dagger shot is huge.
- NC State 87 @ Miami 82: This game was not ideal for North Carolina State. They were very sloppy with the ball throughout, and they actually lost the turnover battle 16-7 in this one. I don't think they are going to win a lot of games with a -9 turnover margin, especially since the Wolfpack thrive on forcing turnovers. That's a worrisome trend, and one they will need to correct as ACC play goes on. Shifting gears to the Hurricanes, I love Chris Lykes. He has 28 points in this game, and the 5'7" point guard dynamo is incredible. He is so quick with the ball in his hands, and he has a great shooting stroke as well. If you haven't seen him play yet, I recommend checking him out.
- Syracuse 72 @ Notre Dame 62: This is the first time in a long time I watched Syracuse play basketball and didn't hate what I saw on the offensive end. They looked like they had an actual plan attacking the Notre Dame defense, and they were hitting shots from deep when they got the opportunities. Speaking of which, Elijah Hughes has been really great shooting from deep, and he did it again today. He had 22 points, including 6 made threes, and he also had 10 rebounds. He's been a revelation after transferring from East Carolina. His three point percentage has a jumped nearly 10% after the year off, and he has been a big contributor to Syracuse's success this year.
- Florida State 52 @ Virginia 65: I would just like to point out my keys to the game in my preview of this matchup in last week's ACC Breakdown were turnovers and free throws. I said Florida State would have to win the turnover battle and keep Virginia off the foul line to win, but that I didn't think they could do it, which would lead to Virginia controlling the tempo and winning the game. Let's look at what happened. Prior to Virginia emptying the bench with roughly 2 minutes left, the Cavs had 5 turnovers, the Roles had 15. At the time, Florida State had attempted 17 free throws to Virginia's 18, and had made 10 compared to 16. Florida State didn't do the two things I thought they need to do, and they trailed by 27. Now, even I didn't anticipate that sort of performance out of the Hoos, but I just wanted to point out my own success, so maybe now you have something to think about when reading my game previews.
- Clemson 68 @ Duke 87: Duke's really good. I don't think I needed to state that. But seriously, the way this team dominates on both ends of the floor is breathtaking to watch. Make no mistake: this is not a bad Clemson team. The senior core of Marcquise Reed, Shelton Mitchell, Elijah Thomas, and you can throw David Skara in there as well, is very talented. Reed entered the game as the third leading scorer in the ACC, and he looked good, with 15 and 8 and connecting on both of his threes. But Clemson turned it over 18 times, an absolute death sentence against Duke. The Blue Devils also barely had Cam Reddish, who was saddled with foul trouble for much of the game, and was ineffective in the minutes he did play. The first half was pretty well contested, with Clemson letting the game get away from them a little in the last 4 minutes, but only trailed at the half. Then Duke seemed to just jump into another gear, starting the second half on a 14-0 run. I mean Zion had 25 and 10 and threw down a 360 dunk. They just do so much so well, and there's a reason I have them at #1 in my Power Rankings.
- Miami 73 @ Louisville 90: Louisville really bounced back from their loss to Kentucky really nicely with an impressive performance against Miami. The Cardinals were very balanced, with 5 players in double figures, including Jordan Nwora, who I highlighted earlier. I thought Malik Williams was really impressive, getting 19 points along with 11 rebounds, 6 of which game on the offensive end. He's always been talented, and with more performances like this one, he's going to be starting and Louisville will be even more dangerous.
What To Watch
- Talk about a great game to start of the week. North Carolina will face in-state rival North Carolina State in a game that could announce NC State to the national stage. Can they do it? I'm going to say yes. The Tar Heels have been fairly lose with the ball, especially freshman point guard Coby White. That's really not what you want to see against a Wolfpack team that will feast on those turnovers. They are forcing them on the seventh highest rate in the country, and I think they will be able to do that against the Tar Heels. On the other end, North Carolina isn't exactly known for its defense, relying on outscoring teams like they did against Gonzaga to get victories. We've seen that if a team can disrupt that offense rhythm, like Michigan and Kentucky did, the Tar Heels defense isn't good enough to grind out games. I also think this game means more to NC State than UNC, as it's at home against a team that has looked at them as the "little brother" for years. On the national stage, the Wolfpack will prove they aren't the little brother anymore.
- Clemson travels to the Carrier Dome on Wednesday night for a game against Syracuse that is sort of huge for both teams. For Syracuse, they need to be able to defend their home court to build up their tournament resume, especially against a team that is roughly as good as they are. Clemson will be looking for a big road win in ACC play, and as I mentioned earlier, they have a gauntlet schedule approaching, so a win here would alleviate some concerns. However, I don't think the Tigers will be able to pull it out. Am I biased? Maybe a little. However, it should be noted that I also have some numbers to back me up. For one, Clemson turns the ball over at one of the higher rates in the country, and that is a recipe for disaster against the Syracuse zone, which loves to tip passes and get steals. The Orange also don't make things easy for teams scoring on the interior, which is where Clemson is any it's best on the offensive end. When Cuse has the ball, I think they can exploit some bad defense around the arc for the Tigers, especially in transition. Syracuse doesn't shoot it especially well, but they've been better at taking good looks of late, and if Elijah Hughes can stay hot, things aren't looking good for Clemson. Give me the Orange in this one.
- Miami will travel to face their in-state conference rivals Florida State, and things aren't looking good for the Hurricanes for two reasons. First, as I mentioned earlier, Miami has very little depth, ranking 340 in bench minutes at roughly 20%. It wouldn't be shocking to see the Canes get fatigued, especially against Florida State, who is 32 in bench minutes at 38.5%. They can keep sending fresh bodies at a tired Miami team, and that could make the other point tip even more in Florida State's favor. The Seminoles are an excellent offensive rebounding team in the country, ranking inside the top 20. Miami hasn't been great about keeping teams off the offensive glass, and if they have tired legs against an onslaught on the glass from the Noles, I really don't like their chances.
- Hey remember what I said about Clemson's turnover issues and poor three point defense? That applies against Virginia as well, as the Hoos are one of the best three point shooting teams in the nation, and they are also one of the stingiest on the defense end, and they punish mistakes. I honestly don't think I need to say much more than this, but one player to watch is Kyle Guy, who could have a field day from deep.
- I'm actually quite fascinated by Louisville's trip to Chapel Hill this weekend. The Cardinals are a rock solid team, and I was impressed by their performance against Miami. I think they can control the tempo, which would be huge for their chances, although I don't know if they can stop the Heels defensively. For one, they have struggled a bit defending the three point arc, and that seems less than ideal against a North Carolina team with some great shooters. They also don't really force turnovers, and I don't see their defense bothering UNC enough to slow down their high powered offense. I also don't know if North Carolina can avoid fouling and keeping the Cardinals off the foul line, so there should be offensive fireworks, which heavily favors the Tar Heels.
- Duke and Florida State are two fairly similar teams. The difference is Duke has more talent. They both play lots of athletic wings who want to force turnovers and get out in transition. As I mentioned earlier, Florida State has turnover issues, which seems like it'd be a matchup for Duke. And it is, as Tre Jones, RJ Barrett, and Zion Williamson are just waiting to go put on a show in the open court. When two teams with similar styles are matched up, it's best to take the one with more talent, and that's Duke.
Full ACC Schedule 1/7-1/13
1/8
Duke @ Wake Forest
North Carolina @ North Carolina State
1/9
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech
Clemson @ Syracuse
Louisville @ Pittsburgh
Virginia @ Boston College
Miami @ Florida State
1/12
Virginia @ Clemson
Louisville @ North Carolina
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina State
Boston College @ Notre Dame
Duke @ Florida State
Wake Forest @ Miami
Georgia Tech @ Syracuse
3 Questions
1. How long will Virginia stay undefeated?
The Cavaliers came out and dominated a good Florida State team on Saturday, and looked like arguably the best team in the country, although I don't think Virginia fans will like their ranking in my latest Top 25 Breakdown. Still, they remain undefeated on the year, with wins over Wisconsin, Maryland, VCU, and the aforementioned Noles. Their defense is as good as ever, and they have more offensive firepower than in the past. I don't think they'll have any sort of problems with their games on the road this week against Boston College and Clemson. Things then ramp up in difficulty with Virginia Tech at home. I really like the Hokies (more on them in a minute), but I don't think they will hold up well against the Hoos defense. That brings us to January 19, when Virginia heads to Cameron Indoor Stadium for a highly anticipated matchup against Duke. And then Virginia faithful with probably not like this prediction, but I don't see them getting past that game without a loss. On the road, in one of the toughest environments in college basketball, against one of the most talented teams in the sport, and a team that has the potential to speed up Virginia and take them out of what they want to do? Not the ideal matchup. I don't know if Virginia will drop another regular season game (maybe when they come to the Dome on March 4- Go Orange), but I don't think they escape January undefeated.
2. How good is Virginia Tech?
In my aforementioned Top 25, I have Virginia Tech at 7. I really like the Hokies, I'm a sucker for teams who can shoot it from deep, if that wasn't apparent from the name of my blog, and there seems to be a lack of top teams at the moment. With that said, I don't view them as one of the elite teams in college basketball (Duke, Michigan, Tennessee, Virginia, Michigan State, Gonzaga), but I think they are in that second tier, although probably closer to the 10-12 range in my mind. They have road matchups at Virginia and North Carolina coming up, and they should tell us a lot about this team.
3. How many tournament team are there in the ACC? (credit @fivepillarhoos on Twitter)
I was asked this on Twitter, if you have any questions you want me to answer, feel free to ask, and I think it's an interesting one to break down. I'd break the conference into 5 categories:
Locks: Duke, Virginia
Almost There: Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, North Carolina, Florida State, Louisville
Bubble: Syracuse, Clemson, Notre Dame
Better Luck Next Year: Miami, Boston College, Pitt, Georgia Tech
Wake Forest: Wake Forest
At the moment, it's hard to see a scenario where either Duke or Virginia aren't dancing, barring them losing out or something insane like that. The "Almost There" category is for teams who just need to stay the course during conference play, pick up one or two nice wins, and they'll be in. They all have a resume headlining win from non-conference play (Purdue, Auburn, Gonzaga, Purdue, Michigan State) and have avoided bad losses, with the exception of Va Tech losing to Penn State. Still, they should all go dancing. I don't think Miami, BC, Pitt, or Georgia Tech will come close to the tournament barring drastic turnarounds or winning the ACC tournament, and Wake Forest is in it's own little tier. That leaves us with Syracuse and Clemson. To me, and I could very well be biased as a Syracuse student and fan, I think the Orange have a better chance. They have the home loss to Old Dominion and neutral court losses to UConn and Oregon, but that away win at Ohio State is awfully nice. Clemson doesn't have any bad losses, but their best win is against Lipscomb at home. I also think Syracuse is getting better with Frank Howard healthy, and they have a much better chance to knock off one of the elite teams in the ACC with their zone defense, especially if Tyus Battle gets hot. As long as they avoid bad losses, which is far from a guarantee, I think Syracuse will get in, and Clemson needs to pull out a big win, or else I think they just miss out on the bubble. So I'll say the ACC gets 8 teams: Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, NC State, UNC, Florida State, Louisville, and Syracuse.
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