The Big Ten has been such a bloodbath this season, with a lot of teams beating each other up. There are a lot of really good games night in, night out, and while it has a reputation as a defensive league, there is some really good offense here and lots of interesting storylines, including a battle at the top, a ton of parity, and an intense conference player of the year race. Let me know your thoughts on the league @ThreePointRange and enjoy Big Ten hoops.
Thoughts
- Nojel Eastern has really turned into a huge piece of Purdue's success. His offensive game isn't anything to write home about, but his defense is so key. He draws the opposing teams' best perimeter player, and he's thrived as a stopper. In their 16 point win over Iowa, he completely neutralized Jordan Bohannon and took the Hawkeyes out of everything they wanted to do. More recently, he held Romeo Langford to 2-10 shooting for 4 points in a 15 point victory over the Hoosiers. He's 6'6" and plays bigger than that, so his size and athleticism allow him to really bother opposing guards, and it's worked wonders for Matt Painter and Purdue.
- Don't look now, but Rutgers is a sneaky good team. Are the Scarlet Knights going to finish with a winning record or make the tournament? Almost certainly not. But Steve Pikiell is building something in Piscataway. They hold conference wins over Ohio State and Nebraska, and their home court continues to be one of the toughest venues in the conference. The Scarlet Knights are a top 50 team in defensive efficiency, and they have a really nice core for the future. Sophomore Geo Baker made a name for himself at last year's Big Ten Tournament, and he's averaging 13.1 points a game, second on the team to junior forward Eugene Omoruyi at 14.1. They also have a talented group of freshmen, led by Montez Mathis, a point guard who took over the starting role in early December. He's been very good recently, with 19,16, and a career high 20 in the Nebraska win over his last three contests to go along with strong defensive play. Add in wing Ron Harper, who has a lot of potential and dropped 12 on OSU, and big Myles Johnson, who had 13 and 11 against the Huskers, and there is some good talent here. Plus, they have Texas transfer James Young coming in next season along with top 150 wing Paul Mulcahy. Don't be surprised to see this team competing for a tournament berth over the next few seasons.
- One of the teams Rutgers beat is really struggling, and that's Ohio State. The Buckeyes have lost their last four games, and things don't look like they'll get better soon. They face Purdue at home before going on the road to play Nebraska ands Michigan. They could very well be 0-7 in 2019 heading into a home tilt against Rutgers. They need to cut back on fouls, especially star big man Kaleb Wesson, who consistently finds himself in foul trouble for the Buckeyes. They aren't very deep, so all of these fouls really impact them negatively, along with giving opponents easy points. They're also struggling offensively, scoring 62 points or less in each of their last three, and they can look to turnovers as to why. They've struggled to take care of the ball in Big Ten play, as evidencing by coughing it up 21 times against Iowa. They need to start getting wins, and soon, or they may be in danger of missing out on March Madness.
- Indiana has one of the best duos in the country in the form of Romeo Langford and Juwan Morgan. Together, they are scoring 34.3 points a game, and the Hoosiers have won tons of games on the back of their stars. However, they really need another player to step up as a consistent third scoring option. Justin Smith has sort of been that this season, but he scored 19 points in three games, which is simply not good enough. Another notable missing piece is a knockdown spot up shooter. Aljami Durham is probably the best option, making 40.8% of his threes, but he's not exactly a guy who you can't leave open under any circumstances. Rob Phinisee could maybe be that third option, but he needs to get back from his injury and he's more of a table setter than scorer. Langford and Morgan can't do everything on their own, and the lack of a guy who can stretch the floor and be a consistent 10 point a game scorer is really obvious.
- Michigan fell for the first time this year when they went to Wisconsin, and I've seen some overreactions to this game. I'll look a little more at Michigan later, but at the end of the day, it's a conference road game against a very good team who has an All-American player. Michigan isn't bad, they aren't going to suddenly fall off. The Wolverines didn't play great in this one, and it showed, but they are still elite defensively and they got beat on the back of an insanely great performance from Ethan Happ. He had 26 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists, and showed why he is one of the best players in the country. Michigan is still a top 6 team in the country and I see no reason why they can't still win this conference.
- The other team from Michigan doesn't look like losing any time soon, as Michigan State took down Maryland in East Lansing Monday night. The Spartans are in the midst of a 12 game win streak, and they are the lone undefeated team in the Big Ten. For as good as Maryland is, and I really like the Terps, Michigan State is on a different level. Nick Ward didn't score in this game, and they still won by 14 points. They had 21 assists on 28 made baskets, and Cassius Winston really sets the team up for success with his passing. Even if he isn't getting the assist, a lot of the times he'll have the hockey assist and he makes the right decision nearly every time. The Spartans defense doesn't get enough credit, as they did a great job disrupting Maryland, getting 9 steals and 9 blocks while holding Maryland to 34.4% shooting from the field. They are so excellent, and doing it with Joshua Langford, which makes all this Big Ten success even more impressive.
Power Rankings
1. Michigan State (2)
Record: 17-2, 8-0
2. Michigan (1)
Record: 18-1, 7-1
3. Maryland (9)
Record: 16-4, 7-2
4. Iowa (7)
Record: 16-3, 5-3
5. Wisconsin (4)
Record: 12-6, 4-3
6. Purdue (8)
Record: 12-6, 5-2
7. Minnesota (10)
Record: 14-5, 4-4
8. Indiana (5)
Record: 12-7, 3-5
9. Nebraska (6)
Record: 13-6, 3-5
10. Ohio State (3)
Record: 12-5, 2-4
11. Northwestern (11)
Record: 12-7, 3-5
12. Rutgers (13)
Record: 8-6, 2-6
13. Illinois (14)
Record: 5-13, 1-6
14. Penn State (12)
Record: 7-12, 0-8
What To Watch
- Michigan State looks to remain undefeated when they travel to Iowa City to take on the Hawkeyes. It's a matchup of two of the top offensive teams in not only the Big Ten, but the nation. I really think the problem for Iowa comes on the defensive end, since they are by no means a good unit on that end, and when you give up 82 points to Penn State and 71 to Illinois, so that's not ideal. They struggle defensively on the interior given the lack of an elite shot blocker, and I think that is an area Michigan State can take advantage of given their numerous bigs. The Spartans are also sneakily good defensively, and they defend two pointers at the best rate in the country. I think they can stop Iowa's good front court of Tyler Cook and Luke Garza, and the Spartans get another impressive road win.
- Michigan has a rematch against Indiana, and it's an incredibly intriguing contest. The last time they met, Michigan won by 11 and they did a good job stopping the Hooisers. However, since then, Indiana has gone on a five game losing streak and Michigan has come back down to Earth, so this has become a matchup of teams that need a big win. I could see the Hoosiers coming out in desperation mode, but I don't know if it'll be enough. Indiana has really struggled scoring, especially outside of Juwan Morgan, and Langford has been struggling lately, and facing Charles Matthews could give him problems. With Michigan taking care of the ball so well and playing such good defense, and Indiana can't figure things out on either end at the moment, so I think the Wolverines win once again.
- Ohio State travels to Nebraska in a matchup of two struggling teams. The Buckeyes are losers of four straight, while Nebraska has lost their last two. Both of them are really desperate for a win, and a loss to either could really hurt their tournament chances. It's a fascinating matchup, and it should be a very close game. I think James Palmer could go off, as he has been scoring inefficiently, but given how often the Buckeyes foul, I think he can get to the foul line a lot and get a ton of points that way. That really highlights the key to the game in Kaleb Wesson. He is foul prone and whenever he is off the court, Ohio State really struggles, especially offensively. He is also primed for an impactful role given how the Huskers struggle to control the defensive glass, and Wesson could be dominant in this matchup if he's on the floor. However, I think the downfall of Ohio State comes in the turnover battle, where they have struggled in Big Ten play, giving the ball up on 19.2% of possessions, and Nebraska is very willing to capitalize on that, leading the Big Ten in steal percentage at 11.9%. Because of that, the potential foul trouble of Kaleb Wesson, and Nebraska defending their home court, I think the Huskers pull out a victory.
- Michigan State has a rematch on their hands with Purdue, this time in West Lafayette. I'm honestly still not fully sold on Purdue, and after the last matchup, it really doesn't look like Purdue is a good matchup for the Spartans. Last time out, Sparty won by 18, and Matt McQuaid locked down Carsen Edwards, holding him to 11 points on 3-16 shooting. However, the Spartans turned the ball over a little too much for my liking last time, and if Nojel Eastern can do a really good job on Cassius Winston, this game could be wide open. However, I think once again, the high level of Michigan State's offense will be too much no matter what Edwards does, and in what I think we be a much closer game than last time.
- Nebraska has another tough test with Wisconsin coming into Lincoln. I think this is a much tougher test for Nebraska, mostly because I have no idea who will guard Ethan Happ. I guess they'll put Isaiah Roby on him, but I don't think he can guard Happ, and neither can Isaac Copeland. I also think James Palmer will have a tougher time scoring the ball in this game, so the game comes down to someone else on Nebraska stepping up, which I don't think anyone will. I think Wisconsin comes out of this one with a victory.
Full Big Ten Schedule 1/23-1/29
1/23
Purdue @ Ohio State
Wisconsin @ Illinois
1/24
Michigan State @ Iowa
1/25
Michigan @ Indiana
1/26
Illinois @ Maryland
Ohio State @ Nebraska
Northwestern @ Wisconsin
Rutgers @ Penn State
1/27
Michigan State @ Purdue
Iowa @ Minnesota
1/29
Northwestern @ Maryland
Wisconsin @ Nebraska
Ohio State @ Michigan
3 Questions
1. How does the middle shake out?
The middle of the Big Ten is incredibly clustered and I am very interested to see who, if anyone, can emerge from this group. At the moment, I think Maryland is in the best position to separate from the pack. They have a group of two star bigs in Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith, Anthony Cowan is a great point guard, and Eric Ayala and Aaron Wiggins have emerged as good shooters off the ball. From there, Iowa, Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Indiana, Nebraska, and Ohio State are have lots of strengths and weaknesses, and teams like Ohio State can go from 12-1 to 12-5 at the drop of a hat given the competitive nature of the conference. Even teams like Northwestern and Rutgers are competitive in nearly every game, so there are basically no easy games. So whatever teams can consistently win games, like Maryland is, then they will put themselves into a much better position come tournament time.
2. What's wrong with Michigan's offense?
For years, Michigan has been known as an elite offensive team under John Beilein. However, over the last year and a half, they have become known as a defensive unit, and their offense has taken a back seat. More recently, we've seen the Wolverines struggling on the offensive end. In their loss to Wisconsin, they never got into an offensive rhythm in the second half and they got poor contributions from leading scorers Charles Matthews and Ignas Bradzeikis, who combined for 5 points in the Wisconsin loss. Against Minnesota, Matthews struggled to the tune of 5 points until his buzzer beater to win, and while Bradzeikis had 18, third leading scorer Jordan Poole only had 3 points. They have been notably poor from three, making 8 over their last 2 games over 40 attempts. A large part of their offense revolves around spacing, and without the ability to knock down threes, the offense has been in trouble. I believe that they will be able to make threes throughout the year, so they should be fine, but it's a situation to monitor.
3. Who is Big Ten Player of the Year?
The race is incredibly close at the moment, with three players jockeying for the top spot at the moment. The first is Ethan Happ, who as I mentioned earlier had an insane performance against Michigan and is currently leading on KenPom. He's averaging 19.8 points a game along with 10.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists, and leading the Badgers. There's also Carsen Edwards at Purdue, who is one of the top scorers in the nation at 24.6 points, which is fourth in the nation. He's also averaging 3.4 assists and 3.3 rebounds a game, but the main feature is his scoring, which has propelled the Boilermakers towards the top of the Big Ten. Finally, Cassius Winston is having an absurd season for Michigan State. He's taken a big step to average 18 points a game to go along with 7.3 assists while shooting 44% from three. I never thought he was talented enough to be a featured scorer, but he's proven me wrong, and has lead the Spartans to the top of the Big Ten standings.
Thoughts
- Nojel Eastern has really turned into a huge piece of Purdue's success. His offensive game isn't anything to write home about, but his defense is so key. He draws the opposing teams' best perimeter player, and he's thrived as a stopper. In their 16 point win over Iowa, he completely neutralized Jordan Bohannon and took the Hawkeyes out of everything they wanted to do. More recently, he held Romeo Langford to 2-10 shooting for 4 points in a 15 point victory over the Hoosiers. He's 6'6" and plays bigger than that, so his size and athleticism allow him to really bother opposing guards, and it's worked wonders for Matt Painter and Purdue.
- Don't look now, but Rutgers is a sneaky good team. Are the Scarlet Knights going to finish with a winning record or make the tournament? Almost certainly not. But Steve Pikiell is building something in Piscataway. They hold conference wins over Ohio State and Nebraska, and their home court continues to be one of the toughest venues in the conference. The Scarlet Knights are a top 50 team in defensive efficiency, and they have a really nice core for the future. Sophomore Geo Baker made a name for himself at last year's Big Ten Tournament, and he's averaging 13.1 points a game, second on the team to junior forward Eugene Omoruyi at 14.1. They also have a talented group of freshmen, led by Montez Mathis, a point guard who took over the starting role in early December. He's been very good recently, with 19,16, and a career high 20 in the Nebraska win over his last three contests to go along with strong defensive play. Add in wing Ron Harper, who has a lot of potential and dropped 12 on OSU, and big Myles Johnson, who had 13 and 11 against the Huskers, and there is some good talent here. Plus, they have Texas transfer James Young coming in next season along with top 150 wing Paul Mulcahy. Don't be surprised to see this team competing for a tournament berth over the next few seasons.
- One of the teams Rutgers beat is really struggling, and that's Ohio State. The Buckeyes have lost their last four games, and things don't look like they'll get better soon. They face Purdue at home before going on the road to play Nebraska ands Michigan. They could very well be 0-7 in 2019 heading into a home tilt against Rutgers. They need to cut back on fouls, especially star big man Kaleb Wesson, who consistently finds himself in foul trouble for the Buckeyes. They aren't very deep, so all of these fouls really impact them negatively, along with giving opponents easy points. They're also struggling offensively, scoring 62 points or less in each of their last three, and they can look to turnovers as to why. They've struggled to take care of the ball in Big Ten play, as evidencing by coughing it up 21 times against Iowa. They need to start getting wins, and soon, or they may be in danger of missing out on March Madness.
- Indiana has one of the best duos in the country in the form of Romeo Langford and Juwan Morgan. Together, they are scoring 34.3 points a game, and the Hoosiers have won tons of games on the back of their stars. However, they really need another player to step up as a consistent third scoring option. Justin Smith has sort of been that this season, but he scored 19 points in three games, which is simply not good enough. Another notable missing piece is a knockdown spot up shooter. Aljami Durham is probably the best option, making 40.8% of his threes, but he's not exactly a guy who you can't leave open under any circumstances. Rob Phinisee could maybe be that third option, but he needs to get back from his injury and he's more of a table setter than scorer. Langford and Morgan can't do everything on their own, and the lack of a guy who can stretch the floor and be a consistent 10 point a game scorer is really obvious.
- Michigan fell for the first time this year when they went to Wisconsin, and I've seen some overreactions to this game. I'll look a little more at Michigan later, but at the end of the day, it's a conference road game against a very good team who has an All-American player. Michigan isn't bad, they aren't going to suddenly fall off. The Wolverines didn't play great in this one, and it showed, but they are still elite defensively and they got beat on the back of an insanely great performance from Ethan Happ. He had 26 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists, and showed why he is one of the best players in the country. Michigan is still a top 6 team in the country and I see no reason why they can't still win this conference.
- The other team from Michigan doesn't look like losing any time soon, as Michigan State took down Maryland in East Lansing Monday night. The Spartans are in the midst of a 12 game win streak, and they are the lone undefeated team in the Big Ten. For as good as Maryland is, and I really like the Terps, Michigan State is on a different level. Nick Ward didn't score in this game, and they still won by 14 points. They had 21 assists on 28 made baskets, and Cassius Winston really sets the team up for success with his passing. Even if he isn't getting the assist, a lot of the times he'll have the hockey assist and he makes the right decision nearly every time. The Spartans defense doesn't get enough credit, as they did a great job disrupting Maryland, getting 9 steals and 9 blocks while holding Maryland to 34.4% shooting from the field. They are so excellent, and doing it with Joshua Langford, which makes all this Big Ten success even more impressive.
Power Rankings
1. Michigan State (2)
Record: 17-2, 8-0
2. Michigan (1)
Record: 18-1, 7-1
3. Maryland (9)
Record: 16-4, 7-2
4. Iowa (7)
Record: 16-3, 5-3
5. Wisconsin (4)
Record: 12-6, 4-3
6. Purdue (8)
Record: 12-6, 5-2
7. Minnesota (10)
Record: 14-5, 4-4
8. Indiana (5)
Record: 12-7, 3-5
9. Nebraska (6)
Record: 13-6, 3-5
Record: 12-5, 2-4
11. Northwestern (11)
Record: 12-7, 3-5
12. Rutgers (13)
Record: 8-6, 2-6
13. Illinois (14)
Record: 5-13, 1-6
14. Penn State (12)
Record: 7-12, 0-8
What To Watch
- Michigan State looks to remain undefeated when they travel to Iowa City to take on the Hawkeyes. It's a matchup of two of the top offensive teams in not only the Big Ten, but the nation. I really think the problem for Iowa comes on the defensive end, since they are by no means a good unit on that end, and when you give up 82 points to Penn State and 71 to Illinois, so that's not ideal. They struggle defensively on the interior given the lack of an elite shot blocker, and I think that is an area Michigan State can take advantage of given their numerous bigs. The Spartans are also sneakily good defensively, and they defend two pointers at the best rate in the country. I think they can stop Iowa's good front court of Tyler Cook and Luke Garza, and the Spartans get another impressive road win.
- Michigan has a rematch against Indiana, and it's an incredibly intriguing contest. The last time they met, Michigan won by 11 and they did a good job stopping the Hooisers. However, since then, Indiana has gone on a five game losing streak and Michigan has come back down to Earth, so this has become a matchup of teams that need a big win. I could see the Hoosiers coming out in desperation mode, but I don't know if it'll be enough. Indiana has really struggled scoring, especially outside of Juwan Morgan, and Langford has been struggling lately, and facing Charles Matthews could give him problems. With Michigan taking care of the ball so well and playing such good defense, and Indiana can't figure things out on either end at the moment, so I think the Wolverines win once again.
- Ohio State travels to Nebraska in a matchup of two struggling teams. The Buckeyes are losers of four straight, while Nebraska has lost their last two. Both of them are really desperate for a win, and a loss to either could really hurt their tournament chances. It's a fascinating matchup, and it should be a very close game. I think James Palmer could go off, as he has been scoring inefficiently, but given how often the Buckeyes foul, I think he can get to the foul line a lot and get a ton of points that way. That really highlights the key to the game in Kaleb Wesson. He is foul prone and whenever he is off the court, Ohio State really struggles, especially offensively. He is also primed for an impactful role given how the Huskers struggle to control the defensive glass, and Wesson could be dominant in this matchup if he's on the floor. However, I think the downfall of Ohio State comes in the turnover battle, where they have struggled in Big Ten play, giving the ball up on 19.2% of possessions, and Nebraska is very willing to capitalize on that, leading the Big Ten in steal percentage at 11.9%. Because of that, the potential foul trouble of Kaleb Wesson, and Nebraska defending their home court, I think the Huskers pull out a victory.
- Michigan State has a rematch on their hands with Purdue, this time in West Lafayette. I'm honestly still not fully sold on Purdue, and after the last matchup, it really doesn't look like Purdue is a good matchup for the Spartans. Last time out, Sparty won by 18, and Matt McQuaid locked down Carsen Edwards, holding him to 11 points on 3-16 shooting. However, the Spartans turned the ball over a little too much for my liking last time, and if Nojel Eastern can do a really good job on Cassius Winston, this game could be wide open. However, I think once again, the high level of Michigan State's offense will be too much no matter what Edwards does, and in what I think we be a much closer game than last time.
- Nebraska has another tough test with Wisconsin coming into Lincoln. I think this is a much tougher test for Nebraska, mostly because I have no idea who will guard Ethan Happ. I guess they'll put Isaiah Roby on him, but I don't think he can guard Happ, and neither can Isaac Copeland. I also think James Palmer will have a tougher time scoring the ball in this game, so the game comes down to someone else on Nebraska stepping up, which I don't think anyone will. I think Wisconsin comes out of this one with a victory.
Full Big Ten Schedule 1/23-1/29
1/23
Purdue @ Ohio State
Wisconsin @ Illinois
1/24
Michigan State @ Iowa
1/25
Michigan @ Indiana
1/26
Illinois @ Maryland
Ohio State @ Nebraska
Northwestern @ Wisconsin
Rutgers @ Penn State
1/27
Michigan State @ Purdue
Iowa @ Minnesota
1/29
Northwestern @ Maryland
Wisconsin @ Nebraska
Ohio State @ Michigan
3 Questions
1. How does the middle shake out?
The middle of the Big Ten is incredibly clustered and I am very interested to see who, if anyone, can emerge from this group. At the moment, I think Maryland is in the best position to separate from the pack. They have a group of two star bigs in Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith, Anthony Cowan is a great point guard, and Eric Ayala and Aaron Wiggins have emerged as good shooters off the ball. From there, Iowa, Purdue, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Indiana, Nebraska, and Ohio State are have lots of strengths and weaknesses, and teams like Ohio State can go from 12-1 to 12-5 at the drop of a hat given the competitive nature of the conference. Even teams like Northwestern and Rutgers are competitive in nearly every game, so there are basically no easy games. So whatever teams can consistently win games, like Maryland is, then they will put themselves into a much better position come tournament time.
2. What's wrong with Michigan's offense?
For years, Michigan has been known as an elite offensive team under John Beilein. However, over the last year and a half, they have become known as a defensive unit, and their offense has taken a back seat. More recently, we've seen the Wolverines struggling on the offensive end. In their loss to Wisconsin, they never got into an offensive rhythm in the second half and they got poor contributions from leading scorers Charles Matthews and Ignas Bradzeikis, who combined for 5 points in the Wisconsin loss. Against Minnesota, Matthews struggled to the tune of 5 points until his buzzer beater to win, and while Bradzeikis had 18, third leading scorer Jordan Poole only had 3 points. They have been notably poor from three, making 8 over their last 2 games over 40 attempts. A large part of their offense revolves around spacing, and without the ability to knock down threes, the offense has been in trouble. I believe that they will be able to make threes throughout the year, so they should be fine, but it's a situation to monitor.
3. Who is Big Ten Player of the Year?
The race is incredibly close at the moment, with three players jockeying for the top spot at the moment. The first is Ethan Happ, who as I mentioned earlier had an insane performance against Michigan and is currently leading on KenPom. He's averaging 19.8 points a game along with 10.3 rebounds and 4.8 assists, and leading the Badgers. There's also Carsen Edwards at Purdue, who is one of the top scorers in the nation at 24.6 points, which is fourth in the nation. He's also averaging 3.4 assists and 3.3 rebounds a game, but the main feature is his scoring, which has propelled the Boilermakers towards the top of the Big Ten. Finally, Cassius Winston is having an absurd season for Michigan State. He's taken a big step to average 18 points a game to go along with 7.3 assists while shooting 44% from three. I never thought he was talented enough to be a featured scorer, but he's proven me wrong, and has lead the Spartans to the top of the Big Ten standings.
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