Thoughts
- I'll get into this a little more later on, but I'm a little worried about Virginia Tech. They got murdered by in-state rivals Virginia and North Carolina. I get that both those teams are good, but a 22 point loss and a is certainly worrisome. They are no doubt an elite offensive team, but I have questions about their defense on the whole, Virginia isn't a team that scores 81 points all that often, they often looked lost against UNC, and they haven't exactly faced a gauntlet this year. Their schedule this week features a matchup with Syracuse, which will be a very intriguing test for the Hokies. If they lose that one, it might just be time to panic in Blacksburg.
- I mentioned this in my Top 25 Breakdown yesterday, but come on NC State. I love you guys! I've been on you for a while and you were making me look smart, but then you go and lose to Wake Forest. Really? They haven't looked convincing at all in ACC play, with wins by 5,6, and 4 in their three victories against some bottom tier competition, and lost to North Carolina and the Demon Deacons, who are atrocious this season. And with that loss, now I'm questioning everything, because that resume is lowkey bad. Outside of a win against Auburn at home, there are no victories in the top 50 on KenPom, and Penn State and Pittsburgh are the next two wins on their resume. That's not great, and their upcoming schedule is going to reveal a lot, with games against Louisville on the road, a three game home stand against Clemson, Virginia, and Virginia Tech, before playing North Carolina on the road.
- Ky Bowman hasn't been talked about enough this season. He's currently third in the ACC in scoring at 20.9 points a game for the Eagles, and he's really doing it all for Boston College. I think we all knew he'd be filling it up after Jerome Robinson left, but dropping 37 on Florida State? I'm not sure anyone saw that coming, and I certainly didn't see him averaging 8.4 rebounds a game this year, and he had 9 against the Noles. He's also scored over 30 twice more this season, with a 38 point performance against Wyoming and a 44 point game in a loss to Hartford. He's had the team on his back, and he hasn't shrunk down from the responsibility.
- I slightly missed on my Virginia Duke pick, going with the Cavs to control the tempo and force Duke into an uncomfortable half court offense without Tre Jones. However, the Blue Devils handed the Hoos their first loss on the year. There are a few reasons why, and check out Jordan Sperber's great video on the coaching battle for one of them, but I think Duke really dominated Virginia athletically. It's mentioned in the video, but Zion Williamson was sort of able to bully his way through the Pack Line defense and get to the rim in a way that no player has ever really been able to do. RJ Barrett had his best game in a while, constantly in attack move and also getting to the basket fairly easily. They also held a big advantage on the offensive glass, getting 10 offensive boards and a lot of it came from Duke players being more athletic than their counterparts from Virginia. It really is a testament to how insane this Duke team is that they were able to beat the vaunted Virginia defense in this way.
- How about my guy Tyus Battle? He's really elevated his performance come ACC play, winning the ACC Player of the Week award this last week. On the year, he's getting 18.2 points a game, seventh in the ACC, and he's got 19.8 a game in his five ACC games. In the last week, he scored 32 against Duke and 22 against Pittsburgh, and he consistently makes big plays. He can score with the best of them, and his pull up jumper, especially in the mid range, is pretty close to unguardable. He's led the Orange to the top of the ACC standings, and he'll continue that throughout the year.
- North Carolina demolished Virginia Tech in Chapel Hill during their last outing, winning 103-82. The biggest thing from that game for me was the play of the Tar Heel's freshmen, Coby White and Nassir Little. They combined for 50 points, with White getting 27 and Little adding a career high 23. White had an excellent all around game, also getting 7 rebounds, 6 assists, and 4 steals, and this was Little's best performances since joining the college ranks. He played better defense, showed off an improved shooting stroke, and impacted the game in more ways than we've previously seen from him. If he can continue to play at this level, he might be the best sixth man in the sport, and that makes an already potent UNC offense even scarier.
Power Rankings
1. Duke (2)
Record: 15-2, 4-1
2. Virginia (1)
Record: 16-1, 4-1
3. North Carolina (4)
Record: 15-4, 5-1
4. Virginia Tech (3)
Record: 15-3, 4-2
5. Louisville (6)
Record: 13-5, 4-1
6. North Carolina State (5)
Record: 15-3, 3-2
7. Syracuse (7)
Record: 13-5, 4-1
8. Pittsburgh (9)
Record: 12-6, 2-3
9. Florida State (8)
Record: 13-5, 1-4
10. Clemson (10)
Record: 11-6, 1-3
11. Miami (11)
Record: 9-8, 1-4
12. Notre Dame (12)
Record: 11-7, 1-4
13. Georgia Tech (13)
Record: 10-8, 2-3
14. Boston College (14)
Record: 10-7, 1-4
15. Wake Forest (15)
Record: 8-9, 1-4
What to Watch
- It's a battle of teacher versus student as Coach K takes on former assistant Jeff Capel with Duke traveling to Pittsburgh. This game arguably has the five best healthy freshmen in the ACC with Zion, RJ, and Cam for Duke, and Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowans for Pitt (sorry Nassir Little and Kihei Clark). As for the actual game though, you gotta think it's gonna be all Duke, even on the road. Pittsburgh has struggled turning the ball over, including coughing the ball up 17 times against Syracuse in their last outing. That won't fly against the Blue Devils, who are the best open court team in the country. Pitt is also a fairly small team and has struggled on the glass, and Duke is getting the fifth highest percentage of offensive boards in the country, so it should be another blowout for the Dukies.
- I mentioned NC State earlier and they will travel to Louisville for an intriguing matchup with the Cardinals. These are two really similar teams who play four out and have a lot of versatile wings like Torin Dorn and Dwayne Sutton who are undersized but excellent on the glass. The key to the game will be the pace, as the Wolfpack are in the top 20 nationally, while Louisville checks as one of the slower teams in the nation. Louisville can certainly play at a faster pace, they ran with UNC, but if they can make it a half court game, they will have a big advantage. I also like their ability to get to the foul line, especially against a super foul prone Wolfpack team. I think Louisville will knock off North Carolina State at home in this one.
- Syracuse travels to Virginia Tech to take on the Hokies. The Hokies should be uniquely prepared to face the Syracuse 2-3 zone, having played Washington and Jim Boeheim disciple Mike Hopkins earlier this season, a game which Virginia Tech controlled the entire way. We've seen Syracuse be susceptible to hot three point shooting teams in the past, look at the second half against both Buffalo and Old Dominion, and if the Hokies can do one thing, it's shoot the ball. However, they have been very poor defensively of late, allowing over 80 points in all of their last three games, and Syracuse has picked up their offense of late. I still think the game favors the Hokies, who should be able to keep the Orange in the half court and they can beat Syracuse in a battle of offensive execution.
- Florida State really needs a win, and they will be looking for just that when they travel to Coral Gables to play Miami. The Seminoles last win came against the Hurricanes on January 9, a game which they won 68-62. Things have gone very poorly for them since then, losing all of their last three, so a win would be huge. Last time out, Florida State controlled the glass and was able to get 11 offensive rebounds and eventually wore down a shallow Miami group to pull out the win. The Canes were successful at getting to the line, which is a great strategy for them to help minimize the gap between Florida State's depth and their own, as well as getting easy points. The Roles have issues with fouling, so look for Miami to attack them in a similar fashion this time. I still believe Florida State holds most of the advantages, namely a much deeper rotation, so I think they'll compete the sweep this time out.
Full ACC Schedule 1/22-1/28
1/22
Clemson @ Florida State
Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech
Duke @ Pittsburgh
Wake Forest @ Virginia
1/24
North Carolina State @ Louisville
Miami @ Syracuse
1/26
Georgia Tech @ Duke
Virginia @ Notre Dame
Clemson @ North Carolina State
Pittsburgh @ Louisville
Boston College @ Wake Forest
Syracuse @ Virginia Tech
1/27
Florida State @ Miami
1/28
Duke @ Notre Dame
3 Questions
1. What's up with Florida State?
Florida State, a team that was borderline top 10 heading into conference play, is currently 1-4 in the ACC and they have losses to Virginia, Duke, Pittsburgh, and Boston College. To be fair, three of those games have come on the road, but still, these are games I was expecting them to win comfortably. Looking at the numbers, the problem is quite clear. They are fouling way too much, with opposing teams taking roughly half free throw per shot attempt, which is incredibly high, and teams are capitalizing, shooting 78.3% from the foul line so far. Additionally, the three point line has been a massive problem, with the Noles shooting 24.8% from behind the arc while the opposition shoots 41.7%. That's a real bad way to try and win games, so they'll need to get that sorted out. I'm not sure if this is a good enough shooting team to turn that number around completely, but they have enough talent to make some more shots from deep, and they can definitely improve their defensive effort. I think they will improve as the season progresses, but I'm a little worried about them.
2. How good is Virginia Tech?
Virginia Tech checked in at 10 in my latest Top 25 Breakdown, but I really have no feel for how good the Hokies are. They don't really have any premier wins, with Purdue on a neutral court back in mid-November being at the top of their resume. They got blown out by Virginia and North Carolina, and they have a loss to Penn State as well. I don't really know why the Hokies aren't able to take down elite teams at the moment, but I think the Hokies eventually settle as a top 15 team given how great their shooting is, and a home tilt with Syracuse will be very interesting, as I broke down above, as will an away game against North Carolina State is very intriguing next weekend.
3. Which coach has done the best job? (via @fivepillarhoos on Twitter)
This comes down to four names for me. Quickly, I want to give a shoutout to Kevin Keatts and NC State. Tony Bennett has done a really good job getting his players to look past that loss to UMBC last season and play some great basketball. He's also brought that offense to new heights and it's really underrated for how great they have been. I think the job Mike Krzyzewski has done an amazing job at Duke, and getting a consistent effort from all four of his star freshmen, managing their minutes, their shots, and keeping other players like Jack White, Marques Bolden, and Javin DeLaurier in the rotation, it's very impressive. Chris Mack has been excellent at Louisville, bringing the Cardinals from the bubble last season to 13-5 at the moment and the top 25 right now with basically the same roster, sans a few grad transfers. He's a great coach, and he's already hit the recruiting trail hard, bringing in a great class for next season. However, I've got to go with Jeff Capel. Are the Panthers a great team? No, but they are 12-6, a stark turnaround from their 8-24 season last year under Kevin Stallings, and the separator for me between him and Mack is Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowans. Both of those guys committed to Pitt under Capel, and they've been playing great, and he's also been involved with a lot of top recruits this season, so I'll give him the edge over Mack and the other two.
- I'll get into this a little more later on, but I'm a little worried about Virginia Tech. They got murdered by in-state rivals Virginia and North Carolina. I get that both those teams are good, but a 22 point loss and a is certainly worrisome. They are no doubt an elite offensive team, but I have questions about their defense on the whole, Virginia isn't a team that scores 81 points all that often, they often looked lost against UNC, and they haven't exactly faced a gauntlet this year. Their schedule this week features a matchup with Syracuse, which will be a very intriguing test for the Hokies. If they lose that one, it might just be time to panic in Blacksburg.
- I mentioned this in my Top 25 Breakdown yesterday, but come on NC State. I love you guys! I've been on you for a while and you were making me look smart, but then you go and lose to Wake Forest. Really? They haven't looked convincing at all in ACC play, with wins by 5,6, and 4 in their three victories against some bottom tier competition, and lost to North Carolina and the Demon Deacons, who are atrocious this season. And with that loss, now I'm questioning everything, because that resume is lowkey bad. Outside of a win against Auburn at home, there are no victories in the top 50 on KenPom, and Penn State and Pittsburgh are the next two wins on their resume. That's not great, and their upcoming schedule is going to reveal a lot, with games against Louisville on the road, a three game home stand against Clemson, Virginia, and Virginia Tech, before playing North Carolina on the road.
- Ky Bowman hasn't been talked about enough this season. He's currently third in the ACC in scoring at 20.9 points a game for the Eagles, and he's really doing it all for Boston College. I think we all knew he'd be filling it up after Jerome Robinson left, but dropping 37 on Florida State? I'm not sure anyone saw that coming, and I certainly didn't see him averaging 8.4 rebounds a game this year, and he had 9 against the Noles. He's also scored over 30 twice more this season, with a 38 point performance against Wyoming and a 44 point game in a loss to Hartford. He's had the team on his back, and he hasn't shrunk down from the responsibility.
- I slightly missed on my Virginia Duke pick, going with the Cavs to control the tempo and force Duke into an uncomfortable half court offense without Tre Jones. However, the Blue Devils handed the Hoos their first loss on the year. There are a few reasons why, and check out Jordan Sperber's great video on the coaching battle for one of them, but I think Duke really dominated Virginia athletically. It's mentioned in the video, but Zion Williamson was sort of able to bully his way through the Pack Line defense and get to the rim in a way that no player has ever really been able to do. RJ Barrett had his best game in a while, constantly in attack move and also getting to the basket fairly easily. They also held a big advantage on the offensive glass, getting 10 offensive boards and a lot of it came from Duke players being more athletic than their counterparts from Virginia. It really is a testament to how insane this Duke team is that they were able to beat the vaunted Virginia defense in this way.
- How about my guy Tyus Battle? He's really elevated his performance come ACC play, winning the ACC Player of the Week award this last week. On the year, he's getting 18.2 points a game, seventh in the ACC, and he's got 19.8 a game in his five ACC games. In the last week, he scored 32 against Duke and 22 against Pittsburgh, and he consistently makes big plays. He can score with the best of them, and his pull up jumper, especially in the mid range, is pretty close to unguardable. He's led the Orange to the top of the ACC standings, and he'll continue that throughout the year.
- North Carolina demolished Virginia Tech in Chapel Hill during their last outing, winning 103-82. The biggest thing from that game for me was the play of the Tar Heel's freshmen, Coby White and Nassir Little. They combined for 50 points, with White getting 27 and Little adding a career high 23. White had an excellent all around game, also getting 7 rebounds, 6 assists, and 4 steals, and this was Little's best performances since joining the college ranks. He played better defense, showed off an improved shooting stroke, and impacted the game in more ways than we've previously seen from him. If he can continue to play at this level, he might be the best sixth man in the sport, and that makes an already potent UNC offense even scarier.
Power Rankings
1. Duke (2)
Record: 15-2, 4-1
2. Virginia (1)
Record: 16-1, 4-1
3. North Carolina (4)
Record: 15-4, 5-1
4. Virginia Tech (3)
Record: 15-3, 4-2
5. Louisville (6)
Record: 13-5, 4-1
6. North Carolina State (5)
Record: 15-3, 3-2
7. Syracuse (7)
Record: 13-5, 4-1
8. Pittsburgh (9)
Record: 12-6, 2-3
9. Florida State (8)
Record: 13-5, 1-4
10. Clemson (10)
Record: 11-6, 1-3
11. Miami (11)
Record: 9-8, 1-4
12. Notre Dame (12)
Record: 11-7, 1-4
13. Georgia Tech (13)
Record: 10-8, 2-3
14. Boston College (14)
Record: 10-7, 1-4
15. Wake Forest (15)
Record: 8-9, 1-4
What to Watch
- It's a battle of teacher versus student as Coach K takes on former assistant Jeff Capel with Duke traveling to Pittsburgh. This game arguably has the five best healthy freshmen in the ACC with Zion, RJ, and Cam for Duke, and Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowans for Pitt (sorry Nassir Little and Kihei Clark). As for the actual game though, you gotta think it's gonna be all Duke, even on the road. Pittsburgh has struggled turning the ball over, including coughing the ball up 17 times against Syracuse in their last outing. That won't fly against the Blue Devils, who are the best open court team in the country. Pitt is also a fairly small team and has struggled on the glass, and Duke is getting the fifth highest percentage of offensive boards in the country, so it should be another blowout for the Dukies.
- I mentioned NC State earlier and they will travel to Louisville for an intriguing matchup with the Cardinals. These are two really similar teams who play four out and have a lot of versatile wings like Torin Dorn and Dwayne Sutton who are undersized but excellent on the glass. The key to the game will be the pace, as the Wolfpack are in the top 20 nationally, while Louisville checks as one of the slower teams in the nation. Louisville can certainly play at a faster pace, they ran with UNC, but if they can make it a half court game, they will have a big advantage. I also like their ability to get to the foul line, especially against a super foul prone Wolfpack team. I think Louisville will knock off North Carolina State at home in this one.
- Syracuse travels to Virginia Tech to take on the Hokies. The Hokies should be uniquely prepared to face the Syracuse 2-3 zone, having played Washington and Jim Boeheim disciple Mike Hopkins earlier this season, a game which Virginia Tech controlled the entire way. We've seen Syracuse be susceptible to hot three point shooting teams in the past, look at the second half against both Buffalo and Old Dominion, and if the Hokies can do one thing, it's shoot the ball. However, they have been very poor defensively of late, allowing over 80 points in all of their last three games, and Syracuse has picked up their offense of late. I still think the game favors the Hokies, who should be able to keep the Orange in the half court and they can beat Syracuse in a battle of offensive execution.
- Florida State really needs a win, and they will be looking for just that when they travel to Coral Gables to play Miami. The Seminoles last win came against the Hurricanes on January 9, a game which they won 68-62. Things have gone very poorly for them since then, losing all of their last three, so a win would be huge. Last time out, Florida State controlled the glass and was able to get 11 offensive rebounds and eventually wore down a shallow Miami group to pull out the win. The Canes were successful at getting to the line, which is a great strategy for them to help minimize the gap between Florida State's depth and their own, as well as getting easy points. The Roles have issues with fouling, so look for Miami to attack them in a similar fashion this time. I still believe Florida State holds most of the advantages, namely a much deeper rotation, so I think they'll compete the sweep this time out.
Full ACC Schedule 1/22-1/28
1/22
Clemson @ Florida State
Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech
Duke @ Pittsburgh
Wake Forest @ Virginia
1/24
North Carolina State @ Louisville
Miami @ Syracuse
1/26
Georgia Tech @ Duke
Virginia @ Notre Dame
Clemson @ North Carolina State
Pittsburgh @ Louisville
Boston College @ Wake Forest
Syracuse @ Virginia Tech
1/27
Florida State @ Miami
1/28
Duke @ Notre Dame
3 Questions
1. What's up with Florida State?
Florida State, a team that was borderline top 10 heading into conference play, is currently 1-4 in the ACC and they have losses to Virginia, Duke, Pittsburgh, and Boston College. To be fair, three of those games have come on the road, but still, these are games I was expecting them to win comfortably. Looking at the numbers, the problem is quite clear. They are fouling way too much, with opposing teams taking roughly half free throw per shot attempt, which is incredibly high, and teams are capitalizing, shooting 78.3% from the foul line so far. Additionally, the three point line has been a massive problem, with the Noles shooting 24.8% from behind the arc while the opposition shoots 41.7%. That's a real bad way to try and win games, so they'll need to get that sorted out. I'm not sure if this is a good enough shooting team to turn that number around completely, but they have enough talent to make some more shots from deep, and they can definitely improve their defensive effort. I think they will improve as the season progresses, but I'm a little worried about them.
2. How good is Virginia Tech?
Virginia Tech checked in at 10 in my latest Top 25 Breakdown, but I really have no feel for how good the Hokies are. They don't really have any premier wins, with Purdue on a neutral court back in mid-November being at the top of their resume. They got blown out by Virginia and North Carolina, and they have a loss to Penn State as well. I don't really know why the Hokies aren't able to take down elite teams at the moment, but I think the Hokies eventually settle as a top 15 team given how great their shooting is, and a home tilt with Syracuse will be very interesting, as I broke down above, as will an away game against North Carolina State is very intriguing next weekend.
3. Which coach has done the best job? (via @fivepillarhoos on Twitter)
This comes down to four names for me. Quickly, I want to give a shoutout to Kevin Keatts and NC State. Tony Bennett has done a really good job getting his players to look past that loss to UMBC last season and play some great basketball. He's also brought that offense to new heights and it's really underrated for how great they have been. I think the job Mike Krzyzewski has done an amazing job at Duke, and getting a consistent effort from all four of his star freshmen, managing their minutes, their shots, and keeping other players like Jack White, Marques Bolden, and Javin DeLaurier in the rotation, it's very impressive. Chris Mack has been excellent at Louisville, bringing the Cardinals from the bubble last season to 13-5 at the moment and the top 25 right now with basically the same roster, sans a few grad transfers. He's a great coach, and he's already hit the recruiting trail hard, bringing in a great class for next season. However, I've got to go with Jeff Capel. Are the Panthers a great team? No, but they are 12-6, a stark turnaround from their 8-24 season last year under Kevin Stallings, and the separator for me between him and Mack is Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowans. Both of those guys committed to Pitt under Capel, and they've been playing great, and he's also been involved with a lot of top recruits this season, so I'll give him the edge over Mack and the other two.
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