Season in Review
The ACC was once again one of the top conferences in the nation. Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke were in and around the top 5 all season, and they had multiple other teams in the top 25 throughout the year. The biggest story was by far the Blue Devils, as they had one of the best recruiting classes of all time, featuring the biggest story in college basketball this season, Zion Williamson, maybe you've heard of him, along with RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, and Tyus Jones. Meanwhile, Virginia rebounded from their loss to UMBC in the first round last season, going undefeated against everyone but Duke this year. Finally, North Carolina was streaky at the beginning of the year, but with the recent emergence of Coby White, they have become an offensive force. Throw in Florida State, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, and Louisville, and the conference has clearly once again been dominant.
Bracket
Contenders
Virginia (28-2, 16-2)
The Cavaliers were the first 1 seed to ever lose to a 16 last March, but people forget just how good they were last season. They had lost just twice before that point, and they were considered to be one of the favorites heading into the tournament thanks to their defense. That great pack line defense is back this season, and they may be a little worse this year, although it is hard to match up to last year's defense, but they are certainly much better on the offensive end. De'Andre Hunter has taken another step forward this season, and both Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome have seemingly not missed a three all season. They shoot 41.4% from three on the season, and they rank second in adjusted offensive efficiency and third in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom. They will be a force in this tournament and in March given how good they are on both ends.
North Carolina (26-5, 16-2)
The Tar Heels were inconsistent at the start of the season, losing games to Texas, Michigan, Kentucky, and Louisville, most of them in blowout fashion, but since then, they have lost just one time to Virginia. Yes, that includes a sweep of in-state rival Duke, and their offense kicked into another gear. Freshman point guard Coby White broke out during ACC play, and he gave them the next dynamic scoring option next to sharpshooter Cam Johnson and steady big man Luke Maye. They play at one of the fastest paces in the nation and it's partnered with really good rebounding. They are a huge threat in the tournament with their excellent offense.
Duke (26-5, 14-4)
The biggest story with Duke recently hasn't been anything they are doing on the court, but revolving around Zion Williamson, who has been injured recently. There has been massive debate over whether or not he will, or should, return to the college court. When the star freshman is on the court, it is tough to stop Duke. When he isn't, they are a different team, despite having top talent like RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish. However, since it looks like Zion will be back for the ACC Tournament and beyond, it is important to evaluate them with him. And when he's on the court, the only thing Duke doesn't do well is shoot it from behind the arc. Every other area is an overwhelming strength, and if they have Zion at full strength, so they are up there with the other two top teams.
Sleeper Teams
Florida State (25-6, 13-5)
The Seminoles have seemingly flown under the radar all season, but they are very good. Despite starting ACC play 1-4, they won 12 of their last 13 games to close out the regular season. They have a ton of length and athleticism, which has helped them get one of the best defenses in the ACC. The Noles also have excellent size, which is why they are one of the best rebounding and shot blocking teams in the country. Offensively, they attack the rim with vengeance, using their athleticism to get past their man and finish at the basket. When they can hit their shots from the outside, they are legitimately dangerous, and if they are hot during the conference tournament, they could win it all.
Syracuse (19-12, 10-8)
You had to know Syracuse was coming. Yes, I am a Syracuse fan and student, but removing all of that, I think they could legitimately play spoiler. We have consistently seen how the zone causes problems on short notice, and with just a day in between games, prepping for the Cuse zone is incredibly hard. They have the six seed and will be playing Duke should they win their first matchup, and let's not forget, they beat the Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor this season. The best way to beat the zone is to make threes against it, which Duke might not be able to do. They are playing with the best teams in the conference, leading Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia at the half before losing, and if they can play at the their best for 40 minutes, they will be tough to beat.
Bubble Watch
Syracuse
Threat Level: Low
The Orange look fairly safe in their tournament chances, but I felt the need to put them in this section. Should they lose their first game to either Boston College or Pitt, the Orange would be moving down towards the bubble. Their win over Duke is arguably the best in the country, and while they have some bad losses, UConn, Old Dominion, and Georgia Tech stand out, the Duke win along with the pure quantity given the state of the bubble, they should be in with a win in their first game.
North Carolina State
Threat Level: Sweating it Out
The Wolfpack are in bubble peril right now. It has become trendy to hate on this team, mostly because of their incredibly weak non-conference strength of schedule. It ranks last in the nation, and many people have begun to say that they should be left out for a mid-major who challenged themselves but lost. They hold wins over Penn State, Auburn, Clemson, and Syracuse, and as I'll get to in a second, their game against Clemson in the opening round is massive.
Clemson
Threat Level: High Alert
I don't think the Tigers are a tournament team. The eye test and the wins just don't stack up in my mind, with big wins over Virginia Tech, Syracuse, and... Lipscomb at home? South Carolina? They have two wins over tournament teams, and I don't think they are that talented of a team. Their defense is pretty good, but they just don't have the resume at the moment. That being said, they will play North Carolina State in their first matchup, and a win there would be massive for the Tigers as they hunt for a return trip to March. I think the winner is in and the loser is out, but right now, I'd have the Pack in, and Clemson out.
Players to Watch
Zion Williamson
Stats: 21.6 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.2 APG, 2.2 SPG, 1.8 BPG, 68.3/29.2/66.9
Zion will be the biggest story of the entire ACC Tournament. Will he play, and if he does, how does he look? When he's playing, he's clearly very good. I don't think I've seen a player this good since I started watching college basketball heavily, and he is basically unguardable because of his athleticism, strength, and skill. He is an undersized center essentially, but he does things I have never seen from a player. He is essentially the size of JJ Watt, and yet he can get his head above the rim. If he is at full strength from the jump, Duke should be considered the favorite to win the ACC Tournament.
Kyle Guy
Stats: 15.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.1 APG, 0.7 SPG, 0.0 BPG, 46.3/45.1/83.6
When you look up "sharpshooter" in the dictionary, there is a picture of Kyle Guy. The junior had a good season last year, he was a third team All American after all, but his offensive game has taken another step forward. His shooting has taken a step forward by 6%, and when he's hot, he doesn't miss. Just ask Syracuse, who he went 8-10 from deep against and scored 25 points, or Virginia Tech, 6-13, 23 points. He will make contested shots, fadeaways, and if he's open, he's automatic. While I could've talked about De'Andre Hunter or Ty Jerome here, Guy was the guy, no pun intended, who I felt could make headlines with big performances during the tournament.
Coby White
Stats: 16.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 43.7/37.9/81.7
There are few players, nevermind freshmen, who are as dynamic and exciting as Coby White. He has come alive down the stretch after inconsistent play to start the season, and it has been incredible to watch. The point guard stands at 6'5", obviously giving him great size for the position, and yet he maintains lighting quick speed. He will blow past you if you play up too tight, pull up in your face if you sag off, and probably just score anyways even if you play perfect defense. He's a pure scorer, and he's scored 30 three different times this year, and since the start of February, he's scored 18.4 points a game. He's a threat in the half court and especially in the open court, and he's the type of player who will move his way up draft boards with his performances the next few weeks.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Stats: 16.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.9 APG, 1.9 SPG, 0.5 BPG, 48/38.4/77.6
The cousin of current Clippers point guard and former Kentucky player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nickeil has made a name for himself this season. He took a big step forward as a sophomore, establishing himself as a top NBA Draft prospect. He started the season really strong with eye opening performances against Purdue and Washington, scoring 25 with 7 rebounds in the former, and had 24 against the Huskies. While he cooled off a bit in ACC play, he has also had to shoulder a larger load with Justin Robinson out injured. He is now handling more ball handling and creation duties, and he has still maintained his scoring output. He struggled a bit at the start, but if his last game is anything to go by, then he is poised to have a big tournament. He had 21/10/8 against Miami, so look for Alexander-Walker to make himself known to more casual fans.
Jordan Nwora
Stats: 17.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 44.5/37.2/76.2
Nwora has broken out as much as any player in the ACC this season. He went from 12 minutes a game on an underperforming Louisville team last season to the team's leading scorer and fifth in the ACC this year. The Nigerian forward has been given a much bigger role by Chris Mack, and he has taken full advantage, and he has often shined on the bigger stages. In games against Tennessee, Marquette, Indiana, Michigan State, Kentucky, North Carolina twice, and Duke, he averaged 18 points and 8.6 rebounds. His shooting stroke is pure, and he has a great ability to finish at the rim, so he could shine on a big stage.
My All Conference Teams
First Team
G: Kyle Guy, Virginia
G: RJ Barrett, Duke
F: De'Andre Hunter, Virginia
F: Zion Williamson, Duke
F: Cameron Johnson, North Carolina
Second Team
G: Tyus Battle, Syracuse
G: Coby White, North Carolina
G: Ty Jerome, Virginia
G: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Virginia Tech
F: Kerry Blackshear Jr, Virginia Tech
Third Team
G: Marcquise Reed, Clemson
G: Ky Bowman, Boston College
F: Jordan Nwora, Louisville
F: Mfioundu Kabengele, Florida State
F: Luke Maye, North Carolina
Note: Justin Robinson was left off due to his injury
My Pick: Virginia over Duke
This tournament could go a number of ways, but I'll say that the Cavaliers repeat as ACC Tournament Champions. I think Duke proves a lot with Zion back, but they ultimately can't get the three game sweep of the Hoos. They are uniquely set up to defend the Blue Devils in a way that I think should be able to stop them from doing what they want by packing the lane, and the last time they played, Duke shot really well from behind the arc, but I don't think they do that again, and I think Virginia finally gets the win over Duke.
The ACC was once again one of the top conferences in the nation. Virginia, North Carolina, and Duke were in and around the top 5 all season, and they had multiple other teams in the top 25 throughout the year. The biggest story was by far the Blue Devils, as they had one of the best recruiting classes of all time, featuring the biggest story in college basketball this season, Zion Williamson, maybe you've heard of him, along with RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, and Tyus Jones. Meanwhile, Virginia rebounded from their loss to UMBC in the first round last season, going undefeated against everyone but Duke this year. Finally, North Carolina was streaky at the beginning of the year, but with the recent emergence of Coby White, they have become an offensive force. Throw in Florida State, Virginia Tech, Syracuse, and Louisville, and the conference has clearly once again been dominant.
Bracket
Contenders
Virginia (28-2, 16-2)
The Cavaliers were the first 1 seed to ever lose to a 16 last March, but people forget just how good they were last season. They had lost just twice before that point, and they were considered to be one of the favorites heading into the tournament thanks to their defense. That great pack line defense is back this season, and they may be a little worse this year, although it is hard to match up to last year's defense, but they are certainly much better on the offensive end. De'Andre Hunter has taken another step forward this season, and both Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome have seemingly not missed a three all season. They shoot 41.4% from three on the season, and they rank second in adjusted offensive efficiency and third in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom. They will be a force in this tournament and in March given how good they are on both ends.
North Carolina (26-5, 16-2)
The Tar Heels were inconsistent at the start of the season, losing games to Texas, Michigan, Kentucky, and Louisville, most of them in blowout fashion, but since then, they have lost just one time to Virginia. Yes, that includes a sweep of in-state rival Duke, and their offense kicked into another gear. Freshman point guard Coby White broke out during ACC play, and he gave them the next dynamic scoring option next to sharpshooter Cam Johnson and steady big man Luke Maye. They play at one of the fastest paces in the nation and it's partnered with really good rebounding. They are a huge threat in the tournament with their excellent offense.
Duke (26-5, 14-4)
The biggest story with Duke recently hasn't been anything they are doing on the court, but revolving around Zion Williamson, who has been injured recently. There has been massive debate over whether or not he will, or should, return to the college court. When the star freshman is on the court, it is tough to stop Duke. When he isn't, they are a different team, despite having top talent like RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish. However, since it looks like Zion will be back for the ACC Tournament and beyond, it is important to evaluate them with him. And when he's on the court, the only thing Duke doesn't do well is shoot it from behind the arc. Every other area is an overwhelming strength, and if they have Zion at full strength, so they are up there with the other two top teams.
Sleeper Teams
Florida State (25-6, 13-5)
The Seminoles have seemingly flown under the radar all season, but they are very good. Despite starting ACC play 1-4, they won 12 of their last 13 games to close out the regular season. They have a ton of length and athleticism, which has helped them get one of the best defenses in the ACC. The Noles also have excellent size, which is why they are one of the best rebounding and shot blocking teams in the country. Offensively, they attack the rim with vengeance, using their athleticism to get past their man and finish at the basket. When they can hit their shots from the outside, they are legitimately dangerous, and if they are hot during the conference tournament, they could win it all.
Syracuse (19-12, 10-8)
You had to know Syracuse was coming. Yes, I am a Syracuse fan and student, but removing all of that, I think they could legitimately play spoiler. We have consistently seen how the zone causes problems on short notice, and with just a day in between games, prepping for the Cuse zone is incredibly hard. They have the six seed and will be playing Duke should they win their first matchup, and let's not forget, they beat the Blue Devils at Cameron Indoor this season. The best way to beat the zone is to make threes against it, which Duke might not be able to do. They are playing with the best teams in the conference, leading Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia at the half before losing, and if they can play at the their best for 40 minutes, they will be tough to beat.
Bubble Watch
Syracuse
Threat Level: Low
The Orange look fairly safe in their tournament chances, but I felt the need to put them in this section. Should they lose their first game to either Boston College or Pitt, the Orange would be moving down towards the bubble. Their win over Duke is arguably the best in the country, and while they have some bad losses, UConn, Old Dominion, and Georgia Tech stand out, the Duke win along with the pure quantity given the state of the bubble, they should be in with a win in their first game.
North Carolina State
Threat Level: Sweating it Out
The Wolfpack are in bubble peril right now. It has become trendy to hate on this team, mostly because of their incredibly weak non-conference strength of schedule. It ranks last in the nation, and many people have begun to say that they should be left out for a mid-major who challenged themselves but lost. They hold wins over Penn State, Auburn, Clemson, and Syracuse, and as I'll get to in a second, their game against Clemson in the opening round is massive.
Clemson
Threat Level: High Alert
I don't think the Tigers are a tournament team. The eye test and the wins just don't stack up in my mind, with big wins over Virginia Tech, Syracuse, and... Lipscomb at home? South Carolina? They have two wins over tournament teams, and I don't think they are that talented of a team. Their defense is pretty good, but they just don't have the resume at the moment. That being said, they will play North Carolina State in their first matchup, and a win there would be massive for the Tigers as they hunt for a return trip to March. I think the winner is in and the loser is out, but right now, I'd have the Pack in, and Clemson out.
Players to Watch
Zion Williamson
Stats: 21.6 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.2 APG, 2.2 SPG, 1.8 BPG, 68.3/29.2/66.9
Zion will be the biggest story of the entire ACC Tournament. Will he play, and if he does, how does he look? When he's playing, he's clearly very good. I don't think I've seen a player this good since I started watching college basketball heavily, and he is basically unguardable because of his athleticism, strength, and skill. He is an undersized center essentially, but he does things I have never seen from a player. He is essentially the size of JJ Watt, and yet he can get his head above the rim. If he is at full strength from the jump, Duke should be considered the favorite to win the ACC Tournament.
Kyle Guy
Stats: 15.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 2.1 APG, 0.7 SPG, 0.0 BPG, 46.3/45.1/83.6
When you look up "sharpshooter" in the dictionary, there is a picture of Kyle Guy. The junior had a good season last year, he was a third team All American after all, but his offensive game has taken another step forward. His shooting has taken a step forward by 6%, and when he's hot, he doesn't miss. Just ask Syracuse, who he went 8-10 from deep against and scored 25 points, or Virginia Tech, 6-13, 23 points. He will make contested shots, fadeaways, and if he's open, he's automatic. While I could've talked about De'Andre Hunter or Ty Jerome here, Guy was the guy, no pun intended, who I felt could make headlines with big performances during the tournament.
Stats: 16.3 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 4.1 APG, 1 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 43.7/37.9/81.7
There are few players, nevermind freshmen, who are as dynamic and exciting as Coby White. He has come alive down the stretch after inconsistent play to start the season, and it has been incredible to watch. The point guard stands at 6'5", obviously giving him great size for the position, and yet he maintains lighting quick speed. He will blow past you if you play up too tight, pull up in your face if you sag off, and probably just score anyways even if you play perfect defense. He's a pure scorer, and he's scored 30 three different times this year, and since the start of February, he's scored 18.4 points a game. He's a threat in the half court and especially in the open court, and he's the type of player who will move his way up draft boards with his performances the next few weeks.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Stats: 16.6 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.9 APG, 1.9 SPG, 0.5 BPG, 48/38.4/77.6
The cousin of current Clippers point guard and former Kentucky player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nickeil has made a name for himself this season. He took a big step forward as a sophomore, establishing himself as a top NBA Draft prospect. He started the season really strong with eye opening performances against Purdue and Washington, scoring 25 with 7 rebounds in the former, and had 24 against the Huskies. While he cooled off a bit in ACC play, he has also had to shoulder a larger load with Justin Robinson out injured. He is now handling more ball handling and creation duties, and he has still maintained his scoring output. He struggled a bit at the start, but if his last game is anything to go by, then he is poised to have a big tournament. He had 21/10/8 against Miami, so look for Alexander-Walker to make himself known to more casual fans.
Stats: 17.3 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.4 APG, 1 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 44.5/37.2/76.2
Nwora has broken out as much as any player in the ACC this season. He went from 12 minutes a game on an underperforming Louisville team last season to the team's leading scorer and fifth in the ACC this year. The Nigerian forward has been given a much bigger role by Chris Mack, and he has taken full advantage, and he has often shined on the bigger stages. In games against Tennessee, Marquette, Indiana, Michigan State, Kentucky, North Carolina twice, and Duke, he averaged 18 points and 8.6 rebounds. His shooting stroke is pure, and he has a great ability to finish at the rim, so he could shine on a big stage.
My All Conference Teams
First Team
G: Kyle Guy, Virginia
G: RJ Barrett, Duke
F: De'Andre Hunter, Virginia
F: Zion Williamson, Duke
F: Cameron Johnson, North Carolina
Second Team
G: Tyus Battle, Syracuse
G: Coby White, North Carolina
G: Ty Jerome, Virginia
G: Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Virginia Tech
F: Kerry Blackshear Jr, Virginia Tech
Third Team
G: Marcquise Reed, Clemson
G: Ky Bowman, Boston College
F: Jordan Nwora, Louisville
F: Mfioundu Kabengele, Florida State
F: Luke Maye, North Carolina
Note: Justin Robinson was left off due to his injury
My Pick: Virginia over Duke
This tournament could go a number of ways, but I'll say that the Cavaliers repeat as ACC Tournament Champions. I think Duke proves a lot with Zion back, but they ultimately can't get the three game sweep of the Hoos. They are uniquely set up to defend the Blue Devils in a way that I think should be able to stop them from doing what they want by packing the lane, and the last time they played, Duke shot really well from behind the arc, but I don't think they do that again, and I think Virginia finally gets the win over Duke.
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