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Pac-12 Breakdown 1/3/19

Well things haven't gone well for the Pac-12 this year. There are a ton of stats being thrown around to reflect the poor play from the conference. 7-10 against the WCC. 4-31 in Quadrant 1 games. No team with less than 3 losses. This is probably not even one of the 6 best conference overall, and I really miss the days of Lonzo Ball and Lauri Markkanen playing for some of the best teams in the nation. If you want to talk Pac-12 hoops for some reason, follow me on Twitter @ThreePointRange, and check back every week for another Pac-12 breakdown.

Power Rankings
1. Arizona State
Record: 9-3
My Thoughts: The Sun Devils haven't been a complete train wreck, which really separates them from the rest of the conference. They have neutral court victories over Mississippi State and Utah State, along with a home win over Kansas, losing only to Nevada in Los Angeles, Vanderbilt on the road, and at home to Princeton, which is honestly not as bad as some of the other teams in the Pac-12. I think their non-conference success is a lot more sustainable than it was last season, since this team is built more on their defense than having Tra Holder and Shannon Evans jacking up threes. Newcomers Lugentz Dort and Zylan Cheatham are really great defenders and have installed a tough mindset in this team. Their offense has been kinda of bad so far, and they have really struggled from behind the arc, but I expect that to change with the addition of a healthy Rob Edwards and Remy Martin. This isn't an otherworldly great team, but their defense and grinder mentality should be more than enough to win this conference.

2. Washington
Record: 9-4
My Thoughts: It's probably not shocking that Washington is very reminiscent of Syracuse seeing as Mike Hopkins is a former Syracuse player and Jim Boeheim assistant of 22 years. They play the zone, which works pretty well, but it feels like they are wasting a lot of talent on the offensive end. The main reason why? They can't shoot, but they sure do love taking threes. Sound familiar? The Washington zone has been remarkably effective at keeping opponents out of the lane and forcing them into bad shots when they do get there, although it doesn't create turnovers in the same way as Syracuse's does, although Matisse Thybulle is a one-man turnover machine at the top of the zone. However, like I said, they are woeful offensively. Jaylen Nowell and Noah Dickerson are really talented offensively, but the Huskies really seem like they don't have a plan offensively and often will settle for a bad shot. I think they can turn things around in conference play, although I think their ceiling is limited by a poor offense.

3. Oregon
Record: 9-4
My Thoughts: The Ducks have been one of the most disappointing teams in the nation this year, at least to me. I had very high expectations for them heading into the year, and they have not lived up to them at all. Part of that has to do with health, as Bol Bol and Louis King have battled injuries thus far and those are arguably the two best players for the Ducks, especially on the offensive end. Their absence does not excuse losing at home to Texas Southern, however. They are an elite shot blocking team, with Bol and Kenny Wooten swatting anything that comes near them, and Ehab Amin has been a good perimeter defender. Really though, Bol and King have been felt most in the outside shooting department, as the Ducks are a fairly average team despite having guys like Payton Pritchard and Victor Bailey who are good shooters. I still think they have the highest ceiling in the conference, and I like Dana Altman enough as a coach to have faith in him getting the Ducks onto the bubble, at the least.

4. Arizona
Record: 9-4
My Thoughts: In another year, with a better Pac-12, I would think Arizona would have a shot at getting into March. They are a really solid team with good defense, and they have no bad losses, and wins over Iowa State, UConn, and Montana. The Wildcats do a good job of taking care of the ball on offense, and although they aren't a great shooting team, they attack the rim well and often find good shots. They are a good defensive team, as mentioned above, running teams off the three point line and  not fouling. Without a top recruiting class, Sean Miller has relied on guys like Brandon Rudolph (16.6 points) and Chase Jeter (12.8 points, 7 rebounds) to step up and make plays for the Wildcats. They are going to win a good amount of games this season with solid fundamentals, but I don't see them getting enough wins to get themselves into the tournament.

5. Stanford
Record: 7-5
My Thoughts: Honestly, the next two teams have better records and maybe better resumes, but fuck it, this league is so bad, I'm going to go with the team I've been impressed with. The Cardinal are sneaky good, and even though they have 5 losses, they are all to team's in the top 50 in KenPom, falling at North Carolina, San Francisco, and Kansas, the latter in overtime, and in Atlantis to Wisconsin and Florida. Not a bad loss in the group, although all their wins come against less than impressive teams, with their best against Seattle on opening night. However, there is a lot of talent on this team. Sophomore forward KZ Okpala is in the midst of a huge breakout season, scoring 16.6 points a game along with 6.1 rebounds and shooting 46.9% from three. He is generating first round draft buzz, and some experts have him in the lottery. In a conference this weak, that sort of talent can win games. Joined by talented guards Bryce Wills, Daejon Davis, and Cormac Ryan, the latter two of whom are battling injuries heading into conference play, and none of whom are an upperclassman, with just Davis being a sophomore, and fellow sophomore forward Oscar Da Silva, this team could continue getting better during conference play and maybe, just maybe, be a tournament contender come March.

6. Colorado
Record: 9-3
My Thoughts: The Buffaloes are fine. There are certainly worse teams in this conference, but nothing about Colorado makes me think they will be competing at the top of the Pac-12 this season. They are sort of like Arizona, in that they'll probably beat the teams they are supposed to beat and lose the games you think they are going to lose. They like to work quickly on the offensive end, constantly attacking the basket. Their main catalyst is guard McKinley Wright, who scores 13.8 points, gets 5.6 rebounds, 5.8 assists, and 1.4 steals a game. He is one of the most complete players in the conference as just a sophomore, and he and junior stretch forward Lucas Siewert are doing the bulk of the scoring for the Buffs. They make sure to hit the glass, especially on the defensive end, and they were in position to be much higher before two losses to Indiana State and Hawaii at the Diamond Head Classic. They aren't going to be sexy, but they should make the NIT, and given most of this team is fairly young, maybe there are better days ahead in Boulder.

7. Oregon State
Record: 8-4
My Thoughts: I actually think the Beavers could move up a little bit, as they have arguably the best player in the conference in Tres Tinkle. Tinkle is scoring 19.8 points a game, getting 8.7 rebounds, and also has 4.2 assists, and is sort of similar to Ethan Happ in terms of his impact from the power forward position. Along with the Thompson brothers, Stephen and Ethan, he rarely leaves the court, and they basically do all of the scoring for the Beavers. They have all struggled from deep, but they can all shoot it pretty well and might get better in conference play. They have some odd strengths, like blocking shots, although that's probably due to playing Tinkle and another big at the same time. If they can start making threes, then Oregon State can rise up the rankings.

8. UCLA
Record: 7-6
My Thoughts: God, what a dumpster fire basketball has been for UCLA this year. If you aren't familiar, they are currently on a four game losing streak, with their last two losses coming at home to Belmont and Liberty, the latter by 15 and led to the firing of head coach Steve Alford. Weird fun fact: only five teams have a lower turnover percentage on defense than UCLA. That really comes down to the atrocious defense played by the Bruins, mostly due to a lack of effort especially on rotations. They also like can't shoot, as evidenced by going 61.9% from the foul line as a team, a number that will surely make Tony Patelis have a heart attack, and 33.4% from three. Kris Wilkes is legit good and basically the only guy who can create on this team, I irrationally love Jaylen Hands despite his turnover and shooting issues, and Moses Brown is tall and blocks shots standing on the ground, which is pretty fun to watch. Other than that, UCLA is bad, which is frankly unacceptable given all the talent in Southern California. Don't be fooled by the name, this is not a good team.

9. USC
Record: 7-6
My Thoughts: The one positive for UCLA fans this season: USC has been just as bad, if not worse. The Trojans have an identical record, although they have one less bad loss, but still lost to Santa Clara. They also have the excuse of having Kevin Porter, their best player, injured for half of their non-conference games. When you look at the numbers, the Trojans shouldn't be this bad. Like they shoot the ball fairly well, don't turn it over that often, play OK defense, but still have 6 losses and no good wins. I really don't know what is going on with this team, but maybe when Porter gets back, they could get hot and win the Pac-12 tournament? Honestly, it's not that far-fetched given the state of  the conference.

10. Utah
Record: 6-6
My Thoughts: I've discussed the Utes a few times, but basically my thoughts boil down to me liking the future of this program. Freshmen Timmy Allen and Both Gak along with sophomore Donnie Tillman have impressed me, but they are inconsistent and aren't going to be a factor this year. Their defense is horrible, they gave up 90 to Hawaii, and they are the worst team in the country at getting steals. This is not a good team this season, although I think the future is bright in the Beehive State.

11. Washington State
Record: 7-6
My Thoughts: Things are only getting worse from the Utes, as Washington State has a fine resume. First, I want to say Robert Franks and CJ Elleby are actually solid players, with Franks leading the Pac-12 in scoring with 22.1 points a game, and also gets 7.9 rebounds a contest, while Elleby is scoring15.6 points a game as a freshman and gets 7.5 rebounds. They come into conference play on a three game losing streak, dropping games to San Diego, New Mexico State, their second loss of the year against the Aggies, and Santa Clara. Their other two losses? Seattle and Montana State. The Cougars are weirdly pretty good at limiting free throw attempts, but everything else defensively is bad. They aren't the worst offensive team thanks to Franks and Elleby, but they're bad. Ernie Kent's seat has to be getting pretty warm, and with another bad season in the Pac-12, almost a guarantee, there could be a job opening in Pullman.

12. California
Record: 5-7
My Thoughts: And finally, we've reached the worst team in this abomination of a conference. They are sub-200 in KenPom, and they are pretty brutal to watch. Their losses on the year: Yale, St. John's, Temple, St. Mary's, San Francisco, Fresno State, and Seattle in their last game. Obviously, things could be going better in Berkeley. They have the worst defense I've seen from a team in a power conference, ranking 320 (!!!!!) in KenPom, and teams can basically do whatever they want against the Golden Bears. with opponents' effective field goal percentage sitting at 56.3%. For reference, that's basically what Tennessee does on the year. Playing Tennessee every game is pretty tough, but Cal isn't playing Tennessee, they're playing against San Jose State, who in the least shocking statement of all time, put up a season high in points against a Division I opponent against Cal. Don't watch this team unless you have a relative on the roster, and even then, only go if you have a free ticket.

What I Saw
This is where I'll breakdown the previous week's games in a similar fashion to my Fast Break series. I'll offer my thoughts and observations from that slate and explain my changes, if any, to my power rankings all in this space. There obviously weren't any games this past week, so for now this is all I have here.

What to Watch
- There honestly aren't a lot of games I can recommend watching in good conscience. A lot of them are late at night for those of us on the East Coast, they are on the Pac-12 network, which reaches like 5% of households, and have bad basketball. However, if you really want to watch some games, Stanford UCLA is intriguing. It's the Bruins first game without Steve Alford, so it'll be very interesting to see how they play. The Cardinal will likely be without Cormac Ryan and Daejon Davis, which can't help their chances, but at least you get to see at least two future pros in KZ Okpala and Kris Wilkes. Also, it's on ESPN and Bill Walton will probably be on the call, so if you're looking for something to do tonight at 11, check it out.

- Oregon State plays Oregon. That's kinda fun right? Tres Tinkle will be going up against a Kenny Wooten and Bol Bol-less Ducks team, and he could go off. As for Oregon, they certainly have the talent advantage over their in-state rivals, so honestly it's a toss up. I guess I'll go with the Beavers, but really who cares.

Full Pac-12 Schedule 1/3-1/9
1/3
Utah @ Arizona State
Colorado @ Arizona
California @ USC
Stanford @ UCLA
1/5
Utah @ Arizona
Cal @ UCLA
Colorado @ Arizona State
Oregon State @ Oregon
Washington State @ Washington
1/6
Stanford @ USC
1/9
Arizona State @ California
Arizona @ Stanford

3 Questions
1. Is this a one bid league?
At the moment, the Pac-12 would be sending one team to the tournament in Arizona State, and it's not going to be easy for them to get more than that. The most obvious way is someone else wins the conference tournament and gets the auto-bid, and given the Sun Devils don't collapse during conference play, then two teams can get in. The other way is for a team other than Arizona State to have a really strong season in conference play. Like 13 or 14 wins good. There are a few candidates to do this. Oregon and Washington were both around the top 25 coming into the year and they are still trying to figure out their season. Washington has no really bad losses yet, but also no good wins, and there aren't a lot of those available in the Pac-12, which is the big problem for the leagues at-large hopes. Washington has the 2-3 zone that could give a lot of teams fits and they could make a run in Pac-12 play. Oregon has yet to be fully healthy with freshmen Louis King and Bol Bol both playing under 10 games. If they can get on the court together, I think they could get really hot and win a lot of games. The dark horse in my mind is Stanford. They also have no bad losses, and they have some real talent on the roster. KZ Okpala has played his way into lottery contention this year, and they have a lot of young players that could continue maturing during conference play and could maybe pick up necessary wins to get into March.

2. How is the middle going to look?
There are two clear tiers in this conference. The top 4 are clearly better than the field, and the bottom 3 all suck. So, how Stanford, Colorado, Oregon State, UCLA, and USC shake it out will be pretty interesting. You could make an argument for all of these teams being the fifth best in the conference, and I am genuinely curious as to what happens here. I've made my love of Stanford known, but Colorado is a tough place to play, Oregon State has one of the best players in the conference, UCLA has talent I guess, and USC has been missing Kevin Porter and could turn things around with him back in the mix. The quality of these teams may actually lead to another at-large bid for the conference, so seeing what happens is kind of fascinating.

3. Who will take over at UCLA?
In many ways, the most interesting thing about Pac-12 basketball isn't happening on the court. It's the coaching search at UCLA. There have been all kinds of names thrown around. Bobby Hurley, Rick Pitino, Jamie Dixon, and plenty of others have had their name connected with the opening. The most common names you'll see are Fred Hoiberg and Eric Musselmann. Hoiberg was recently fired from the Chicago Bulls, but he had a lot of success at Iowa State. However, he is well known for hating recruiting, and he'd need a bring in a great staff to be able to get the talent necessary, since he relied on transfers, which is a strategy that likely won't work for the Bruins. The same can be said for Musselmann, who has basically an entire roster of transfers at Nevada, and he has a reputation for being unpleasant to deal with. My completely uneducated guess for who I think UCLA will hire, not necessarily who I want them to, is Earl Watson. Watson is a UCLA alum and former Bruin player, and he's got NBA pedigree as a former coach of the Phoenix Suns. He also has a good relationship with a lot of the AAU programs in the Los Angeles area, which would once again establish a nice pipeline of talent. To me, he seems like the safest hire for a program who needs to get back on track.

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