The Big 12 continues to churn out good games and upsets, with no game being a sure thing. Who saw Baylor being 4-2 and sitting at third in the conference? Or West Virginia struggling this badly, but having their lone win coming over Kansas? The Iowa State-Kansas series produced two of the better games of the year thus far, and nearly ever game comes down to the wire. I'd love to hear your thoughts on the conference on Twitter @ThreePointRange, and feel free to interact with me there, and if you feel so inclined, ask a question, and you could get featured in a blog as two people did this time.
Thoughts
- Texas Tech has one of the best defenses in the nation, ranking first in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom, and holding every opponent sans Baylor to under one point per possession so far this season. However, their offense really needs some work. Outside of Jarrett Culver, who is on a different level than his teammates, scoring 18.7 points a game, getting 7.1 rebounds, and dishing out 3.9 assists a game, and doing it all while shooting 53.1% from the field. However, I don't know if they have a consistent second scoring option. I thought Matt Mooney could be that guy, and he's shown the ability at times, but 12 points over his last three games, he needs to get going once more. They also lack a consistent deep threat, with only two players shooting over 35% from three, and while I like Davide Moretti, he isn't the star scorer just yet, and I think he could be the guy that spaces the floor for the Red Raiders. At the moment, they have been pretty bad offensively, and they need to get going before it's too late.
- I want to quickly touch on two programs with some off the court issues. TCU has had 4 players transfer so far this year, and while at first it looked like it was guys who wanted more playing time like Kaden Archie, seeing Jaylen Fisher leave the program raised some red flags for me. I don't know why he is transferring and I don't want to speculate, but I think there might be something behind the scenes we don't know about. Then there's Oklahoma State, who is down to seven scholarship players after kicking Michael Weathers, Maurice Calloo, and Kentrevious Jones off the team last week. Mike Cunningham already left the program earlier this year, and we saw Zach Lofton get dismissed for character concerns last season. I have no idea why this is happening, but I like Mike Boynton making sure he only has players up to his standards in the program. even if it means killing all of the team's depth. They have a nice recruiting class coming in next season, and Boynton continues to build the program his way.
- Kansas State has completely turned things around. They are riding a five game winning streak after starting 0-2 in Big 12 play and looking really bad a lot of the time. The easy reason that a lot of people point to is the return of Dean Wade from injury, and that has obviously transformed the team. He's such a versatile weapon in the front court, and he commands a lot of attention from opposing defenses. However, I think a large part of their success comes down to their defense. Obviously, they have been a very good defensive team all season, but they've kicked it into a new gear during conference play. A big part of that has been forcing more turnovers, doing so on nearly a fourth of of all possessions, and that has led to a lot more easy buckets in transition, which is helping the offense. This is the team I expected to challenge the Jayhawks at the beginning of the season.
- Kansas got a big win over Iowa State in Lawrence. We saw the the Cyclones beat the Jayhawks earlier this season, and it looked like they might get the sweep early in this one. However, Dedric Lawson took over, dropping 29 points with 15 rebounds, but it was the play of Marcus Garrett that separated Kansas in this game. He had 16 and it was the best game I've seen him play, as he was consistently getting downhill and attacking the rim instead of settling for threes, when he isn't a good shooter from deep. He has always been a very good defender, but seeing him able to consistently beat his man and get into the lane was really encouraging.
Power Rankings
1. Kansas (2)
Record: 16-3, 5-2
2. Iowa State (3)
Record: 14-5, 4-3
3. Kansas State (7)
Record: 15-4, 5-2
4. Texas Tech (1)
Record: 15-4, 4-3
5. Baylor (8)
Record: 12-6, 4-2
6. TCU (4)
Record: 14-4, 3-3
7. Texas (6)
Record: 11-8, 3-4
8. Oklahoma (5)
Record: 14-5, 3-4
9. Oklahoma State (9)
Record: 8-11, 2-5
10. West Virginia (10)
Record: 9-10, 1-6
What To Watch
- I'm going to have a post Saturday morning previewing the entire Big 12/SEC Challenge, so I won't but any of those games in here. Be sure to check back then to see my thoughts on Iowa State at Ole Miss, Florida at TCU, and of course, Kansas at Kentucky.
- TCU takes on Texas Tech in what figures to be a hard fought matchup between in-state rivals. If there is one person I think could carve up the Texas Tech defense, it's Alex Robinson. The Horned Frog's point guard is a maestro, averaging 7.9 assists a game, second in the nation only to Ja Morant (PSA: He plays against Belmont tonight in a great matchup, check that one out). The senior should be able to withstand the Texas Tech pressure and make good decisions with the ball in his hands, often a challenge against the Red Raiders. Desmond Bane and Kouat Noi could definitely make open shots as well as create their own, so I think TCU matches up pretty well actually. However, I think Texas Tech pulls it out. They are desperately in need of a win, they are at home, and they have the best player on the floor. I really like Jarrett Culver to have a big game despite likely being guarded by Noi or Bane, who are very good on that end, as he leads Texas Tech to a close win over TCU.
- Kansas plays Texas for a second time, this time in Austin, and new Longhorn's coach Matthew McConaughey should be on the sidelines once again. In their last matchup, Kansas walked away with a 80-78 victory thanks to big performances from Lagerald Vick and Marcus Garrett. The Longhorns are one of the few teams with the ability to matchup well with Dedric Lawson, as they have a mobile freshman big in Jaxson Hayes with the length and athleticism required to bother Lawson. The key last time was the three point line, and that figures to be the case once again. Texas shot 38.2% on 34 attempts, and I don't know if they can do that again, but I certainly don't expect Kansas to make half of their shots from deep either. I expect this one to be lower scoring, but still close. Hypothetically, that should favor the Longhorns, but I can't shake the feeling Kansas pulls out another win.
Full Big 12 Schedule 1/24-1/30
1/26
Iowa State @ Mississippi
Alabama @ Baylor
Florida @ TCU
South Carolina @ Oklahoma State
Texas @ Georgia
Kansas State @ Texas A&M
West Virginia @ Tennessee
Vanderbilt @ Oklahoma
Kansas @ Kentucky
Arkansas @ Texas Tech
1/28
TCU @ Texas Tech
Baylor @ Oklahoma
1/29
Kansas @ Texas
1/30
West Virginia @ Iowa State
3 Questions
1. Who is the best team?
The Big 12 has been a close race, especially at the top. There are two teams tied up at the top at 5-2 and three more with 4 wins. There doesn't seem to be a dominant team, or group of teams, like there are in other conferences. It truly is a league where 1-10, there are no easy games, as evidenced by Kansas losing to West Virginia recently. I think there is a top 4 of Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, ands Texas Tech, and at the moment, Kansas looks to once again be the cream of the crop. However, Kasnsas State is the winner of 5 straight, and with the return of Dean Wade from injury, look very capable of challenging The Jayhawks at the top of the conference. Iowa State has knocked off The Jayhawks and played them close in Phogg Allen, and have arguably the best offense in the conference. Finally, Texas Tech has arguably the conference's best player, Jarrett Culver, and the best defense. It'll be a fascinating race to watch throughout conference play, but for now, Kansas is once again on top.
2. How many bids can they get? (via @TheReal_gwarner on Twitter)
This is really interesting to look at. The parity in the Big 12 is a double edged sword. On one hand, every team has a shot at winning every game and getting a big win for their resume. On the other, teams are in danger of losing every game, and too many losses can impact seeding and knock you out of the field. I want to start off by saying I am by no means a bracketologist and a lot of this is my thoughts. I think West Virginia and Oklahoma State are pretty safely out of the conversation, barring a Big 12 Tournament victory. I would also say Kansas is a near lock given their impressive resume, with wins over Michigan State, Marquette, Tennessee, Villanova, and all their conference victories. From there, all of the other seven teams could go either way. I'd lean towards Kansas State, Iowa State, and Texas Tech being pretty comfortably in come Selection Sunday, so that's four bids. TCU and Baylor didn't do themselves any favors in the non-conference, with the Horned Frogs losing at home to Lipscomb (not a bad loss by the way) and not picking up any high quality wins, and the Bears dropping games to Texas Southern, Stephen F. Austin, and Wichita State, all sub 100 in KenPom. However, they have wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech to hang their hats on, while TCU has yet to pick up a real resume booster. Oklahoma did work in the non-conference, getting wins over Florida, Notre Dame, Creighton, and Northwestern, all though they have all aged pretty poorly, so their resume is sort of lacking looking at it now, especially after a 3-4 start to Big 12 play. As for Texas, they have the two best wins in the group with North Carolina on a neutral and Purdue at home, but also have home losses to Radford and VCU. All of them are on the bubble at the moment, and I doubt all of them make it in. I'll say one of these teams completely drops out of the race by Selection Sunday, and another doesn't make the field, leaving the conference with 6 bids.
3. How far can Kansas go this season? (via @arosa22_ on Twitter)
The actual question was "Should I bet my life savings on Kansas this year?" and that really depends on what you're betting on. If it's a Big 12 title, I'd say go for it. The top of the conference is cluttered, but Kansas has an All-American in Dedric Lawson, one of the best coaches in the nation with Bill Self, and some players who are starting to figure things out like Marcus Garrett and Ochai Agbaji. They have to be considered the favorite to win the Big 12 regular season title at this point in time. For the Big 12 tournament, I think they can very easily win it, but I'd bet on the field in that one, since a team like Iowa State can definitely get hot for a few days and win that. It's really hard to project how far Kansas will go in March without knowing the bracket, but if I had to guess, I'd say the Elite Eight. I just don't know if Lagerald Vick is a good enough second banana to get this team to a Final Four. Now, with that being said, he can get on one of those streaks where he's making crazy shots and scoring 30 a night, and that would definitely change things, but right now, I think the loss of Udoka Azubuike lowers their ceiling from a title contender to a Final Four contender. That being said, I've always said go big or go home, so if you like what you see from the Jayhawks the rest of the year and they get a favorable draw in March, feel free to drop that bag on them.
Thoughts
- Texas Tech has one of the best defenses in the nation, ranking first in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom, and holding every opponent sans Baylor to under one point per possession so far this season. However, their offense really needs some work. Outside of Jarrett Culver, who is on a different level than his teammates, scoring 18.7 points a game, getting 7.1 rebounds, and dishing out 3.9 assists a game, and doing it all while shooting 53.1% from the field. However, I don't know if they have a consistent second scoring option. I thought Matt Mooney could be that guy, and he's shown the ability at times, but 12 points over his last three games, he needs to get going once more. They also lack a consistent deep threat, with only two players shooting over 35% from three, and while I like Davide Moretti, he isn't the star scorer just yet, and I think he could be the guy that spaces the floor for the Red Raiders. At the moment, they have been pretty bad offensively, and they need to get going before it's too late.
- I want to quickly touch on two programs with some off the court issues. TCU has had 4 players transfer so far this year, and while at first it looked like it was guys who wanted more playing time like Kaden Archie, seeing Jaylen Fisher leave the program raised some red flags for me. I don't know why he is transferring and I don't want to speculate, but I think there might be something behind the scenes we don't know about. Then there's Oklahoma State, who is down to seven scholarship players after kicking Michael Weathers, Maurice Calloo, and Kentrevious Jones off the team last week. Mike Cunningham already left the program earlier this year, and we saw Zach Lofton get dismissed for character concerns last season. I have no idea why this is happening, but I like Mike Boynton making sure he only has players up to his standards in the program. even if it means killing all of the team's depth. They have a nice recruiting class coming in next season, and Boynton continues to build the program his way.
- Kansas State has completely turned things around. They are riding a five game winning streak after starting 0-2 in Big 12 play and looking really bad a lot of the time. The easy reason that a lot of people point to is the return of Dean Wade from injury, and that has obviously transformed the team. He's such a versatile weapon in the front court, and he commands a lot of attention from opposing defenses. However, I think a large part of their success comes down to their defense. Obviously, they have been a very good defensive team all season, but they've kicked it into a new gear during conference play. A big part of that has been forcing more turnovers, doing so on nearly a fourth of of all possessions, and that has led to a lot more easy buckets in transition, which is helping the offense. This is the team I expected to challenge the Jayhawks at the beginning of the season.
- Kansas got a big win over Iowa State in Lawrence. We saw the the Cyclones beat the Jayhawks earlier this season, and it looked like they might get the sweep early in this one. However, Dedric Lawson took over, dropping 29 points with 15 rebounds, but it was the play of Marcus Garrett that separated Kansas in this game. He had 16 and it was the best game I've seen him play, as he was consistently getting downhill and attacking the rim instead of settling for threes, when he isn't a good shooter from deep. He has always been a very good defender, but seeing him able to consistently beat his man and get into the lane was really encouraging.
Power Rankings
1. Kansas (2)
Record: 16-3, 5-2
2. Iowa State (3)
Record: 14-5, 4-3
3. Kansas State (7)
Record: 15-4, 5-2
4. Texas Tech (1)
Record: 15-4, 4-3
5. Baylor (8)
Record: 12-6, 4-2
6. TCU (4)
Record: 14-4, 3-3
7. Texas (6)
Record: 11-8, 3-4
8. Oklahoma (5)
Record: 14-5, 3-4
9. Oklahoma State (9)
Record: 8-11, 2-5
10. West Virginia (10)
Record: 9-10, 1-6
What To Watch
- I'm going to have a post Saturday morning previewing the entire Big 12/SEC Challenge, so I won't but any of those games in here. Be sure to check back then to see my thoughts on Iowa State at Ole Miss, Florida at TCU, and of course, Kansas at Kentucky.
- TCU takes on Texas Tech in what figures to be a hard fought matchup between in-state rivals. If there is one person I think could carve up the Texas Tech defense, it's Alex Robinson. The Horned Frog's point guard is a maestro, averaging 7.9 assists a game, second in the nation only to Ja Morant (PSA: He plays against Belmont tonight in a great matchup, check that one out). The senior should be able to withstand the Texas Tech pressure and make good decisions with the ball in his hands, often a challenge against the Red Raiders. Desmond Bane and Kouat Noi could definitely make open shots as well as create their own, so I think TCU matches up pretty well actually. However, I think Texas Tech pulls it out. They are desperately in need of a win, they are at home, and they have the best player on the floor. I really like Jarrett Culver to have a big game despite likely being guarded by Noi or Bane, who are very good on that end, as he leads Texas Tech to a close win over TCU.
- Kansas plays Texas for a second time, this time in Austin, and new Longhorn's coach Matthew McConaughey should be on the sidelines once again. In their last matchup, Kansas walked away with a 80-78 victory thanks to big performances from Lagerald Vick and Marcus Garrett. The Longhorns are one of the few teams with the ability to matchup well with Dedric Lawson, as they have a mobile freshman big in Jaxson Hayes with the length and athleticism required to bother Lawson. The key last time was the three point line, and that figures to be the case once again. Texas shot 38.2% on 34 attempts, and I don't know if they can do that again, but I certainly don't expect Kansas to make half of their shots from deep either. I expect this one to be lower scoring, but still close. Hypothetically, that should favor the Longhorns, but I can't shake the feeling Kansas pulls out another win.
Full Big 12 Schedule 1/24-1/30
1/26
Iowa State @ Mississippi
Alabama @ Baylor
Florida @ TCU
South Carolina @ Oklahoma State
Texas @ Georgia
Kansas State @ Texas A&M
West Virginia @ Tennessee
Vanderbilt @ Oklahoma
Kansas @ Kentucky
Arkansas @ Texas Tech
1/28
TCU @ Texas Tech
Baylor @ Oklahoma
1/29
Kansas @ Texas
1/30
West Virginia @ Iowa State
3 Questions
1. Who is the best team?
The Big 12 has been a close race, especially at the top. There are two teams tied up at the top at 5-2 and three more with 4 wins. There doesn't seem to be a dominant team, or group of teams, like there are in other conferences. It truly is a league where 1-10, there are no easy games, as evidenced by Kansas losing to West Virginia recently. I think there is a top 4 of Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, ands Texas Tech, and at the moment, Kansas looks to once again be the cream of the crop. However, Kasnsas State is the winner of 5 straight, and with the return of Dean Wade from injury, look very capable of challenging The Jayhawks at the top of the conference. Iowa State has knocked off The Jayhawks and played them close in Phogg Allen, and have arguably the best offense in the conference. Finally, Texas Tech has arguably the conference's best player, Jarrett Culver, and the best defense. It'll be a fascinating race to watch throughout conference play, but for now, Kansas is once again on top.
2. How many bids can they get? (via @TheReal_gwarner on Twitter)
This is really interesting to look at. The parity in the Big 12 is a double edged sword. On one hand, every team has a shot at winning every game and getting a big win for their resume. On the other, teams are in danger of losing every game, and too many losses can impact seeding and knock you out of the field. I want to start off by saying I am by no means a bracketologist and a lot of this is my thoughts. I think West Virginia and Oklahoma State are pretty safely out of the conversation, barring a Big 12 Tournament victory. I would also say Kansas is a near lock given their impressive resume, with wins over Michigan State, Marquette, Tennessee, Villanova, and all their conference victories. From there, all of the other seven teams could go either way. I'd lean towards Kansas State, Iowa State, and Texas Tech being pretty comfortably in come Selection Sunday, so that's four bids. TCU and Baylor didn't do themselves any favors in the non-conference, with the Horned Frogs losing at home to Lipscomb (not a bad loss by the way) and not picking up any high quality wins, and the Bears dropping games to Texas Southern, Stephen F. Austin, and Wichita State, all sub 100 in KenPom. However, they have wins over Iowa State and Texas Tech to hang their hats on, while TCU has yet to pick up a real resume booster. Oklahoma did work in the non-conference, getting wins over Florida, Notre Dame, Creighton, and Northwestern, all though they have all aged pretty poorly, so their resume is sort of lacking looking at it now, especially after a 3-4 start to Big 12 play. As for Texas, they have the two best wins in the group with North Carolina on a neutral and Purdue at home, but also have home losses to Radford and VCU. All of them are on the bubble at the moment, and I doubt all of them make it in. I'll say one of these teams completely drops out of the race by Selection Sunday, and another doesn't make the field, leaving the conference with 6 bids.
3. How far can Kansas go this season? (via @arosa22_ on Twitter)
The actual question was "Should I bet my life savings on Kansas this year?" and that really depends on what you're betting on. If it's a Big 12 title, I'd say go for it. The top of the conference is cluttered, but Kansas has an All-American in Dedric Lawson, one of the best coaches in the nation with Bill Self, and some players who are starting to figure things out like Marcus Garrett and Ochai Agbaji. They have to be considered the favorite to win the Big 12 regular season title at this point in time. For the Big 12 tournament, I think they can very easily win it, but I'd bet on the field in that one, since a team like Iowa State can definitely get hot for a few days and win that. It's really hard to project how far Kansas will go in March without knowing the bracket, but if I had to guess, I'd say the Elite Eight. I just don't know if Lagerald Vick is a good enough second banana to get this team to a Final Four. Now, with that being said, he can get on one of those streaks where he's making crazy shots and scoring 30 a night, and that would definitely change things, but right now, I think the loss of Udoka Azubuike lowers their ceiling from a title contender to a Final Four contender. That being said, I've always said go big or go home, so if you like what you see from the Jayhawks the rest of the year and they get a favorable draw in March, feel free to drop that bag on them.
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