I'm trying a bit of a different format, as I'm back at school and don't have as much time as I would like to work on these posts, although I'm trying to be more active on Twitter, @ThreePointRange, to cover for that. I'm normally on there discussing all things college basketball, as well as taking questions for the 3 Questions segment. Thanks as always for reading, and enjoy.
Thoughts
- I have made my love for North Carolina State known on more than one occasion. They are really fun to watch play, they have a lot of talent, all of the talent fits Kevin Keatts' system, and Keatts is a very good coach. They just aren't quite there yet. They are obviously a very good team, but they aren't quite at the elite level just yet. They played with North Carolina, and Wisconsin earlier in the season, but just couldn't finish it off, and caught Auburn in the midst of a rough patch and watched as the Tigers committed 25 turnovers. They also had close calls against Penn State, who is winless in the Big Ten, and more recently needed overtime to handle Pitt at home. This is a program very clearly on the upswing, and they are only going to get better, but they don't have that next level just yet.
- I was very wrong about Georgia Tech. I had them at last in my ACC Preview, and kept them there for the first ACC breakdown. I just wasn't impressed by anything this team did, and I wasn't a believer in the talent on their roster. However, they have been impressive throughout ACC play, sitting at 2-1 with wins over Wake Forest and at Syracuse, and took Virginia Tech to the wire. Jose Alvarado has never been a guy who I was a particularly big fan of, but he's been playing really well, and has scored in double digits in every ACC contest. I've also been impressed by James Banks, who I really like, and the defense is very good on the defensive end, ranking eleventh in adjusted defensive efficiency. They remind me of Rutgers, which I think is a compliment, with the way they grind teams down defensively and pull out wins. They are not a game to be overlooked on the schedule.
- I think we saw on Saturday something I have expected for a while: North Carolina is very beatable. Really, it comes down to either getting stops and forcing them into bad shots, or flat out outscoring them. Michigan and more recently Louisville did the former, Texas did the latter, and Kentucky did a mixture of the two. I understand why Nassir Little doesn't play, but I think Roy Williams is making a mistake by not playing him more. The team would be better if he were on the floor, and the fact that he isn't playing more is infuriating to me as I watch the Tar Heels play. I should also give a lot of credit to Louisville, as I incorrectly predicted that they wouldn't be able to score with UNC in my last ACC Breakdown, and yet they most certainly did. Chris Mack is in the conversation for the coach who has done the best job this season, and the team is going to be a major threat in the ACC for years to come.
- If you want my thoughts on Syracuse and Duke, be sure to check out my last post, where I go through the game in detail, mostly in celebration. Go Orange baby.
Power Rankings
1. Virginia (2)
Record: 15-0, 3-0
2. Duke (1)
Record: 14-2, 3-1
3. Virginia Tech (3)
Record: 14-1, 3-0
4. North Carolina (4)
Record: 12-4, 2-1
5. North Carolina State (6)
Record: 14-2, 2-1
6. Louisville (7)
Record: 11-5, 2-1
7. Syracuse (8)
Record: 12-5, 3-1
8. Florida State (5)
Record: 13-3, 1-2
9. Pittsburgh (12)
Record: 12-5, 2-2
10. Clemson (9)
Record: 10-6, 0-3
11. Miami (11)
Record: 9-7, 1-3
12. Notre Dame (10)
Record: 11-5, 1-2
13. Georgia Tech (14)
Record: 10-6, 2-1
14. Boston College (13)
Record: 9-6, 0-3
15. Wake Forest (15)
Record: 7-8, 0-3
What to Watch
-Virginia Tech and Virginia meet in not only an in-state rivalry game, but a top 10 matchup. Under normal circumstances, this would be the biggest game of the week, but that happened last night. Virginia has just taken over at the top of KenPom, and they very well could be the number one team in the country with two wins this week. Expect possessions to be at a premium in this game, as both teams are among the 30 slowest teams in the nation. While it may not be the highest scoring game, it should be a hoops junkie's dream, with high level offensive execution from two of the top 12 three point shooting teams in the country, and two teams who rarely turn the ball over. Virginia is better at defending the three point line, but that can vary game to game, especially if a team like Virginia Tech gets hot. I honestly don't have a strong feeling on how this is going to go, but it should be fun to watch. I'll lean the home team with the better defense, so look for Virginia to win a close one.
- In a game that is looking a lot more interesting after Monday's results, Pittsburgh will be headed to the Carrier Dome for a game on Saturday. Pittsburgh has been hot recently, more on that in a second, and I'm not sure if you know this, but Syracuse beat Duke yesterday. Both teams are better on the defensive end, and it remains to be seen whether or not Syracuse will adopt a quicker pace after all of their success using it against Duke (and throughout the year but that's another matter). I think one of two things will happen. Either Syracuse will experience a massive letdown, should be noted they lost to Georgia Tech on Saturday, or the offense we saw against Duke is legit, and they take it to Pitt in this one. I don't think the Panthers should be taken lightly, but I'll buy into the Cuse offense and three point shooting and give them the advantage.
- In what has to be the best game of the week, and possibly all of ACC play, Virginia heads to Duke to take on the Blue Devils. The big story has to be Tre Jones more than likely being out with a shoulder injury sustained against Syracuse. Jones is huge for Duke, and with him being out, it has to be asked just how good the offense is going to run against a top flight Virginia defense. Without him, RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish are relied on to create on the perimeter, which takes some of the scoring threat away from those two, and it also means a lot more minutes for Alex O' Connell at the point. I think Duke is going to turn the ball over more, and Virginia will control the pace, forcing it to a half court game where Duke struggles. The Cavs, much like Syracuse, will be walking away from Durham with a win.
- Virginia Tech has a big week as they have to travel to Charlottesville and Chapel Hill to play Virginia and North Carolina respectively. I think the Hokies have a very good chance. As I mentioned earlier, if you can slow UNC down and outscore them in a half court game, which Virginia Tech is suited to do. They have a very good offense, ranking eight in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they are deadly from deep. Plus, they play very slowly, and I don't think North Carolina can speed them up, so they will have a massive advantage. Maybe I'm overreacting to the loss to Louisville, but I'm going with Virginia Tech on the road.
Full ACC Schedule 1/15-1/21
1/15
Virginia Tech @ Virginia
NC State @ Wake Forest
Notre Dame @ UNC
1/16
Boston College @ Louisville
Georgia Tech @ Clemson
1/19
UNC @ Miami
NC State @ Notre Dame
Pitt @ Syracuse
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech
Louisville @ Georgia Tech
Virginia @ Duke
1/20
Florida State @ Boston College
1/21
Virginia Tech @ UNC
3 Questions
1. How good is Louisville?
What a strange week for the Cardinals. They lose to Pittsburgh in overtime, before beating North Carolina by 21, both on the road. What a weird turnaround from Louisville, and it wasn't even a huge turnaround for Louisville offensively. It does beg the question: just how good is this team. To me, they are a borderline top 25 team at the moment, and that's where I expect them to stay for most of the year. They have been a fairly average team so far, but they seem to never have an off night, comepting at nearly the same level every game. This can be seen as either a good or bad thing. On one hand, they rarely drop games against weaker teams. On the other, they don't have another level to go to against the best teams. They are susceptible to losing games to infererior opposition who have good games, and they can take advantage of good teams who have an off day. I think they'll be a comfortable 7-10 seed come March, and they should compete in every ACC game they play.
2. Is Pitt legit?
The Panthers were absolutely terrible last season, going winless through ACC play and they ended up firing head coach Kevin Stallings. However, this season has been different. They have started ACC play strong and have a legitimate case to be on the bubble at the moment. While they have a really ugly loss to Niagara, their next worse lost came in Morgantown to West Virginia, and they have wins over Saint Louis and Duquense on neutral courts, and more recently beat both Louisville and Florida State at home in ACC play while taking North Carolina State to overtime. It can't be overstated how great Jeff Capel has been in his short time in Pittsburgh, as he managed to convince a number of key players to stay, picked up some good recruits late in the year, and has transformed the Panthers into an up-tempo team that can play with anyone. Freshmen guards Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowens have been major catalysts to this turnaround, as Johnson is leading the team in scoring and assists with 17.1 and 4.7 a game respectively. He had a big 21 point and 10 assist performance against Louisville, but McGowens has had some huge performances in big games. He's second on the team in scoring, and he gets 14.4 points a night, but scored 33 against Louisville and 30 against Florida State, leading the team to two big wins. I think there is a very real chance they sustain this success, as the freshman duo is very talented and could lead them to some more big wins.
3. Who is on your All-ACC teams at the moment? (via @fivepillarhoos on Twitter)
First Team
- Zion Williamson, Duke
- RJ Barrett, Duke
- Ty Jerome, Virginia
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Virginia Tech
- Cameron Johnson, North Carolina
Second Team
- Marcquise Reed, Clemson
- Tre Jones, Duke
- Tyus Battle, Syracuse
- Torin Dorn, North Carolina State
- Kyle Guy, Virginia
Third Team
- Jordan Nwora, Louisville
- De'Andre Hunter, Virginia
- Xavier Johnson, Pittsburgh
- Luke Maye, North Carolina
- Ky Bowman, Boston College
Also Considered
- Elijah Thomas, Clemson
- Coby White, North Carolina
- Markell Johnson, North Carolina State
- TJ Gibbs, Notre Dame
- Justin Robinson, Virginia Tech
- Terrance Mann, Florida State
- Chris Lykes, Miami
- Elijah Hughes, Syracuse
- Trey McGowans, Pittsburgh
Thoughts
- I have made my love for North Carolina State known on more than one occasion. They are really fun to watch play, they have a lot of talent, all of the talent fits Kevin Keatts' system, and Keatts is a very good coach. They just aren't quite there yet. They are obviously a very good team, but they aren't quite at the elite level just yet. They played with North Carolina, and Wisconsin earlier in the season, but just couldn't finish it off, and caught Auburn in the midst of a rough patch and watched as the Tigers committed 25 turnovers. They also had close calls against Penn State, who is winless in the Big Ten, and more recently needed overtime to handle Pitt at home. This is a program very clearly on the upswing, and they are only going to get better, but they don't have that next level just yet.
- I was very wrong about Georgia Tech. I had them at last in my ACC Preview, and kept them there for the first ACC breakdown. I just wasn't impressed by anything this team did, and I wasn't a believer in the talent on their roster. However, they have been impressive throughout ACC play, sitting at 2-1 with wins over Wake Forest and at Syracuse, and took Virginia Tech to the wire. Jose Alvarado has never been a guy who I was a particularly big fan of, but he's been playing really well, and has scored in double digits in every ACC contest. I've also been impressed by James Banks, who I really like, and the defense is very good on the defensive end, ranking eleventh in adjusted defensive efficiency. They remind me of Rutgers, which I think is a compliment, with the way they grind teams down defensively and pull out wins. They are not a game to be overlooked on the schedule.
- I think we saw on Saturday something I have expected for a while: North Carolina is very beatable. Really, it comes down to either getting stops and forcing them into bad shots, or flat out outscoring them. Michigan and more recently Louisville did the former, Texas did the latter, and Kentucky did a mixture of the two. I understand why Nassir Little doesn't play, but I think Roy Williams is making a mistake by not playing him more. The team would be better if he were on the floor, and the fact that he isn't playing more is infuriating to me as I watch the Tar Heels play. I should also give a lot of credit to Louisville, as I incorrectly predicted that they wouldn't be able to score with UNC in my last ACC Breakdown, and yet they most certainly did. Chris Mack is in the conversation for the coach who has done the best job this season, and the team is going to be a major threat in the ACC for years to come.
- If you want my thoughts on Syracuse and Duke, be sure to check out my last post, where I go through the game in detail, mostly in celebration. Go Orange baby.
Power Rankings
1. Virginia (2)
Record: 15-0, 3-0
2. Duke (1)
Record: 14-2, 3-1
3. Virginia Tech (3)
Record: 14-1, 3-0
4. North Carolina (4)
Record: 12-4, 2-1
5. North Carolina State (6)
Record: 14-2, 2-1
6. Louisville (7)
Record: 11-5, 2-1
7. Syracuse (8)
Record: 12-5, 3-1
8. Florida State (5)
Record: 13-3, 1-2
9. Pittsburgh (12)
Record: 12-5, 2-2
10. Clemson (9)
Record: 10-6, 0-3
11. Miami (11)
Record: 9-7, 1-3
12. Notre Dame (10)
Record: 11-5, 1-2
13. Georgia Tech (14)
Record: 10-6, 2-1
14. Boston College (13)
Record: 9-6, 0-3
15. Wake Forest (15)
Record: 7-8, 0-3
What to Watch
-Virginia Tech and Virginia meet in not only an in-state rivalry game, but a top 10 matchup. Under normal circumstances, this would be the biggest game of the week, but that happened last night. Virginia has just taken over at the top of KenPom, and they very well could be the number one team in the country with two wins this week. Expect possessions to be at a premium in this game, as both teams are among the 30 slowest teams in the nation. While it may not be the highest scoring game, it should be a hoops junkie's dream, with high level offensive execution from two of the top 12 three point shooting teams in the country, and two teams who rarely turn the ball over. Virginia is better at defending the three point line, but that can vary game to game, especially if a team like Virginia Tech gets hot. I honestly don't have a strong feeling on how this is going to go, but it should be fun to watch. I'll lean the home team with the better defense, so look for Virginia to win a close one.
- In a game that is looking a lot more interesting after Monday's results, Pittsburgh will be headed to the Carrier Dome for a game on Saturday. Pittsburgh has been hot recently, more on that in a second, and I'm not sure if you know this, but Syracuse beat Duke yesterday. Both teams are better on the defensive end, and it remains to be seen whether or not Syracuse will adopt a quicker pace after all of their success using it against Duke (and throughout the year but that's another matter). I think one of two things will happen. Either Syracuse will experience a massive letdown, should be noted they lost to Georgia Tech on Saturday, or the offense we saw against Duke is legit, and they take it to Pitt in this one. I don't think the Panthers should be taken lightly, but I'll buy into the Cuse offense and three point shooting and give them the advantage.
- In what has to be the best game of the week, and possibly all of ACC play, Virginia heads to Duke to take on the Blue Devils. The big story has to be Tre Jones more than likely being out with a shoulder injury sustained against Syracuse. Jones is huge for Duke, and with him being out, it has to be asked just how good the offense is going to run against a top flight Virginia defense. Without him, RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish are relied on to create on the perimeter, which takes some of the scoring threat away from those two, and it also means a lot more minutes for Alex O' Connell at the point. I think Duke is going to turn the ball over more, and Virginia will control the pace, forcing it to a half court game where Duke struggles. The Cavs, much like Syracuse, will be walking away from Durham with a win.
- Virginia Tech has a big week as they have to travel to Charlottesville and Chapel Hill to play Virginia and North Carolina respectively. I think the Hokies have a very good chance. As I mentioned earlier, if you can slow UNC down and outscore them in a half court game, which Virginia Tech is suited to do. They have a very good offense, ranking eight in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they are deadly from deep. Plus, they play very slowly, and I don't think North Carolina can speed them up, so they will have a massive advantage. Maybe I'm overreacting to the loss to Louisville, but I'm going with Virginia Tech on the road.
Full ACC Schedule 1/15-1/21
1/15
Virginia Tech @ Virginia
NC State @ Wake Forest
Notre Dame @ UNC
1/16
Boston College @ Louisville
Georgia Tech @ Clemson
1/19
UNC @ Miami
NC State @ Notre Dame
Pitt @ Syracuse
Wake Forest @ Virginia Tech
Louisville @ Georgia Tech
Virginia @ Duke
1/20
Florida State @ Boston College
1/21
Virginia Tech @ UNC
3 Questions
1. How good is Louisville?
What a strange week for the Cardinals. They lose to Pittsburgh in overtime, before beating North Carolina by 21, both on the road. What a weird turnaround from Louisville, and it wasn't even a huge turnaround for Louisville offensively. It does beg the question: just how good is this team. To me, they are a borderline top 25 team at the moment, and that's where I expect them to stay for most of the year. They have been a fairly average team so far, but they seem to never have an off night, comepting at nearly the same level every game. This can be seen as either a good or bad thing. On one hand, they rarely drop games against weaker teams. On the other, they don't have another level to go to against the best teams. They are susceptible to losing games to infererior opposition who have good games, and they can take advantage of good teams who have an off day. I think they'll be a comfortable 7-10 seed come March, and they should compete in every ACC game they play.
2. Is Pitt legit?
The Panthers were absolutely terrible last season, going winless through ACC play and they ended up firing head coach Kevin Stallings. However, this season has been different. They have started ACC play strong and have a legitimate case to be on the bubble at the moment. While they have a really ugly loss to Niagara, their next worse lost came in Morgantown to West Virginia, and they have wins over Saint Louis and Duquense on neutral courts, and more recently beat both Louisville and Florida State at home in ACC play while taking North Carolina State to overtime. It can't be overstated how great Jeff Capel has been in his short time in Pittsburgh, as he managed to convince a number of key players to stay, picked up some good recruits late in the year, and has transformed the Panthers into an up-tempo team that can play with anyone. Freshmen guards Xavier Johnson and Trey McGowens have been major catalysts to this turnaround, as Johnson is leading the team in scoring and assists with 17.1 and 4.7 a game respectively. He had a big 21 point and 10 assist performance against Louisville, but McGowens has had some huge performances in big games. He's second on the team in scoring, and he gets 14.4 points a night, but scored 33 against Louisville and 30 against Florida State, leading the team to two big wins. I think there is a very real chance they sustain this success, as the freshman duo is very talented and could lead them to some more big wins.
3. Who is on your All-ACC teams at the moment? (via @fivepillarhoos on Twitter)
First Team
- Zion Williamson, Duke
- RJ Barrett, Duke
- Ty Jerome, Virginia
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Virginia Tech
- Cameron Johnson, North Carolina
Second Team
- Marcquise Reed, Clemson
- Tre Jones, Duke
- Tyus Battle, Syracuse
- Torin Dorn, North Carolina State
- Kyle Guy, Virginia
Third Team
- Jordan Nwora, Louisville
- De'Andre Hunter, Virginia
- Xavier Johnson, Pittsburgh
- Luke Maye, North Carolina
- Ky Bowman, Boston College
Also Considered
- Elijah Thomas, Clemson
- Coby White, North Carolina
- Markell Johnson, North Carolina State
- TJ Gibbs, Notre Dame
- Justin Robinson, Virginia Tech
- Terrance Mann, Florida State
- Chris Lykes, Miami
- Elijah Hughes, Syracuse
- Trey McGowans, Pittsburgh
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