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SEC Breakdown 1/4/19

Power Rankings
1. Tennessee
Record: 11-1
My Thoughts: The Volunteers are on the shortlist for the best teams in the nation, and they are one of the best offensive teams in the nation. They are ranked sixth in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, and they really just do everything super well on that side of the ball. They hold wins over Lousville and Gonzaga on neutral courts as well as winning at in-state rival Memphis. Their only loss is in overtime to Kansas, and they look like they are going to be in the top 5 all season. The play of Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield has been incredible. Both were great last season, and they are playing even better this year. They are combining for 38.3 points a game, 14.3 rebounds, and 6.8 assists. Williams has added more playmaking to his game as well as outside shooting, making him one of the most dangerous weapons in the country, while Schofield has also improved his shot from deep along with becoming more assertive on the offensive end. With the backcourt of Jordans, Bone and Bowden, playing really well, and Kyle Alexander and Yves Pons being standout defenders, this is one of the most complete teams in the nation.

2. Auburn
Record: 11-2
My Thoughts: The Tigers are really excellent, but sort of flying under the radar. Part of that comes from them losing their two biggest games, against Duke in Maui and at North Carolina State, and they've yet to get a real statement win. They do an excellent job of forcing turnovers and getting out in transition. They force the most turnovers in the nation, and with all of the athletes they have, they are explosive in transition. They have been struggling a bit shooting the ball, Bryce Brown hasn't been as good from deep as he was last season, but they get to the offensive glass really well, and the front court rotation of Chuma Okeke, Anfernee McLemore, Malik Dunbar, and Austin Wiley really excel in their roles of rim runners and rebounders. They all also blocks shots, and Okeke and Dunbar are decent shooters from the outside. However, on the defensive end, they have some struggles. They gamble for steals a lot, and that leads to opponents getting easy baskets pretty often. Additionally, because their big men go for blocks, they give up rebounding position and opponents can get to the offensive glass. I think they will be very good, but if they get slowed down, they could be in trouble.

3. Kentucky
Record: 10-2
My Thoughts: The Wildcats got blown out on opening night to Duke, and people started acting like the sky was falling in Lexington. In their next game against a name brand team, they lost to Seton Hall in overtime in Madison Square Garden. John Calipari had lost it. Kentucky couldn't shoot, they were horrible, Quade Green had escaped when he could. Then they blew out Utah at home, beat North Carolina pretty handily in Chicago, and went to Louisville and were in control of the game the entire time. Suddenly, the John Calipari coached team made up of a lot of freshman is getting better as the season goes on as they improve on both sides of the ball and buy into their roles. What a shocker. Playing with both PJ Washington and Reid Travis has led to a lot of rebounds and tough interior defense, and Ashton Hagans has emerged as an absolute ballhawk on the defensive end. Hagans and Immanuel Quickley are still struggling with turnovers, and their defensive rotations, especially guarding the three point line, aren't there yet, but they are really good and I think they will keep getting better through the regular season.

4. Mississippi State
Record: 12-1
My Thoughts: One of the most underrated teams in the country, the Bulldogs have been really good all year. With their only loss being on a neutral court to Arizona State, which looks worse by the day, and they have wins over St. Mary's on a neutral, at Dayton, Clemson on a neutral, and home for Cincinnati. They have a really good rotation and they've been so good on the offensive end. A major reason for that has been their improvement shooting the ball from deep. Lamar Peters and Nick Weatherspoon have emerged as deadeyes from long range, and Quinndary Weatherspoon has emerged as a go-to scorer. Add in a talented front court and very solid defense, and they are a team that continues to grow on me the more I see them. I really think they can challenge for the SEC title, and I am starting to go all-in on the Bulldogs.

5. LSU
Record: 10-3
My Thoughts: LSU has been a little worse than I expected, but I can't really say that I'm surprised. They haven't picked up wins over any high majors, and they have been fairly inconsistent throughput non-conference play. Really, the story of this team is inconsistency. It's certainly not a talent issue. Tremont Waters, Naz Reid, Skylar Mays, and everyone else in their rotation is very talented, but they never seem to be clicking together. There seems to be games Reid will take off, and then come out and dominate the next time out. Waters hasn't been the same player as last year, and it's really hurt this team in their three point shooting. All of the athleticism does help on the defensive end for the Bayou Bengals, as they get a lot of steals, but their defense is iffy, and their effort on the glass can be iffy at times. They need to play hard every game, especially on the defensive end, and I'm still a believer in their talent.

6. Florida
Record: 8-4
My Thoughts: The Gators are certainly much different than they were last year. Last season, they were firing from deep with Jalen Hudson, Egor Koulachev, Kevaughn Allen, and Chris Chiozza, and their games against Gonzaga and Duke at the PK80 were some of the most fun in their entire season. This year, things have been a bit different. They have kind of struggled offensively, with Hudson forgetting how to put the ball in the hoop, and Allen not reverting back to his sophomore year form. However, they are grinding it out defensively, and have found their identity on that side of the court. They got blown out buy Florida State on opening night, took losses to Oklahoma and Butler in Atlantis, but ever since then, they've rebounded, and have wins over West Virginia on a neutral court, a very close loss to Michigan State, and they dominated Butler at home, winning by over 30 points and keeping the Bulldogs to 43. They are locking up, and using a full court press to force turnovers this season. The games may not be pretty, but they are going to defend well and wear down teams, and if they can get going on offense, they can be very dangerous.

7. Mississippi
Record: 10-2
My Thoughts: When Mississippi announced they were hiring Kermit Davis, I thought it was an excellent hire. He had done an excellent job at Middle Tennessee team, turning them into a perennial C-USA powerhouse, and I thought he would be able to rebuild the Rebels over a few years. I certainly did not foresee Ole Miss being as good as they have been so far this year. The play of Berlin Tyree and Terence Davis has been eye-opening, as the backcourt duo is playing great, averaging a combined 32.8 points a game. They both shoot over 41% from three, as is fellow guard Devontae Shuler, which has led Ole Miss to a 10-2 record. With only losses to Butler and Cincinnati, neither at home, and a solid neutral court win over Baylor, I like the Rebels this year. Their defense has been alright, and they do struggle defending the arc, but I think this offense is good enough to win them enough games to put them in the tournament.

8. Vanderbilt
Record: 9-3
My Thoughts: The Commodores have been a solid team this year, with losses to Kent State, North Carolina State, and Kansas State, and hold wins over USC, Liberty, and Arizona State. They play fast, although that style will no doubt suffer some without Darius Garland, a star point guard who is out for the season with an injury. However, they have been alright without him, with Saben Lee taking over at the point, and the up tempo offense is getting a lot of good looks. They do turn the ball over too much, and I think that's where Garland's absence hurts them the most, and their defense is just average. I am really interested to see how they do come conference play, as I love Simi Shittu, and I think their wings can shoot enough to put the Dores in the tournament conversation.

9. Arkansas
Record: 9-3
My Thoughts: The Hogs were supposed to be in a rebuilding season, but they've come out strong. They've lost to Texas, Western Kentucky, and Georgia Tech, which aren't exactly great losses, especially those last two, although they have a win over Indiana. They are still playing their high intensity press, and it's very fun to watch. They go up and down, playing one of the fastest paces in the nation, and they have a legit NBA prospect in Daniel Gafford at center. The backcourt of New Mexico transfer Jalen Harris and freshman Isaiah Joe has been grea. Harris has taken care of the ball really well, with just 12 turnovers on the year, just one a game, and Joe is a sharpshooter, making 45.5% of his shots from deep. They can get beat on the press and give up easy baskets, and Gafford often gambles for blocks and gives up rebounding position, so they are very susceptible on the defensive glass. I love Arkansas thanks to how much fun they are to watch, although I think this will be more of a bubble team all year.

10. Alabama
Record: 9-3
My Thoughts: I really don't have a ton of thoughts on Alabama, to be honest. They aren't really great at anything, and although I don't think they are a bad team, I just think they are fine. They have good players in their core six man rotation, and Kira Lewis has been really fun to watch, and I love Donta Hall as an athletic big man who blocks a ton of shots. They can't really shoot the ball at all, but they have a lot of athletic wings who are good on the defensive end. They're like Texas, with no shooting but a ton of athletes, and they're going to be fine and compete in every game they play in, which is impressive in one of the toughest conferences in the country, but I don't know if they have the offensive firepower to win enough games to be a tournament team.

11. Missouri
Record: 9-3
My Thoughts: Another surprise team in the SEC, the Tigers have bounced back really well from the loss of Jontay Porter and are playing well so far. However, I'm not as sold on them as I am on some of the other teams I've seen in the conference. For one, they haven't really beat any good teams, with a home overtime win over UCF, neutral court victories over Oregon State and Illinois, and a home win over Xavier headlining their resume. They have also been really hot from deep, and I'm skeptical if guys like Mark Smith and Kevin Puryear can continue their hot shooting starts and consistent threats from deep. They also turn the ball over a decent amount, and they have struggled with their play on the interior, and I'm really not sold on Jeremiah Tilmon as a good center, but I'm not convinced this is a tournament quality team.

12. Georgia
Record: 8-4
My Thoughts: Another SEC team that brought in a new head coach, with Tom Crean heading to Athens, and they have maybe exceeded expectations thus far. They have losses to Temple, Clemson, Georgia State, and Arizona State, with a win over rival Georgia Tech. I honestly kind of love this team despite them not really being that good. Sophomores Rayshaun Hammonds, Nicolas Claxton, and Teshaun Hightower are all pretty impressive, especially on the defensive end with a lot of length in that group. Add in junior guard Tyree Crump, who has been good offensively, and there is a lot to like about the personnel. They just don't really fit Crean's style, so it hasn't been super successful. They play fast, which is a double-edged sword. It does help maximize all of the athleticism on the roster, but they don't really have a true ball handler at the point, so they turn it over a lot. I think they can be good in a few years and give teams tough games throughout SEC play.

13. Texas A&M
Record: 6-5
My Thoughts: I could have not been further out on the Aggies in the preseason, and I feel super justified right about now. With losses to UC Irvine, Gonzaga, Minnesota, and Washington over a four game stretch in November, and lost their last game before conference play at home to Texas Souther by 15. I really think people were banking on this team just being good again, but they lost a lot of production from last year, and didn't really have an avenue to replace it. To be fair, they haven't had Admon Gilder this year, and he figured to be their leading scorer this season. They lack the size of year's past, and they struggle to get defensive rebounds. They also cannot shoot the ball, which is where the loss of Gilder really hurts, and they also turn it over a lot. I really don't like this team at all.

14. South Carolina
Record: 5-7
My Thoughts: Last and definitely least is the Gamecocks. They've lost their last four games against Division I opponents, including a loss to Wyoming, and losses to Stony Brook and Wofford aren't great either. They really struggle offensively, with an inability to shoot and their best player, Chris Silva, really struggling with foul trouble and staying on the court. Freshman AJ Lawson has been pretty good as a freshman, and he's really been their source of offensive creation. They also can't really defend the three point line, which isn't good, and they foul a lot. They seem like a boring and bad team, and I don't think they will make any noise in the SEC this year.

What I Saw
This is where I'll breakdown the previous week's games in a similar fashion to my Fast Break series. I'll offer my thoughts and observations from that slate and explain my changes, if any, to my power rankings all in this space. There obviously weren't any games this past week, so for now this is all I have here.

What to Watch
- Most Alabama fans will probably be very focused on Monday, but there is a big game Saturday in Tuscaloosa when Kentucky comes to town. The Crimson Tide have been solid all season, and they will surely be looking to make a statement win for both their tournament resume and their intentions in the SEC. However, it looks like this matchup favors the Wildcats. First off, Alabama has struggled with turnovers throughout the year, and it feels like Ashton Hagans is going to feast on that given how he has been playing off late. Next, the Crimson Tide don't have the size to matchup with Kentucky's bigs. Donta Hall is is a very good defensive big, but I don't know who is going to guard PJ Washington. The obvious choice is Herb Jones, but he has a propensity to get into foul trouble, while PJ does a good job of drawing fouls. As soon as he gets into foul trouble, which I believe he will, I'm not sure where you turn to stop that front court. Finally, Alabama doesn't have the three point shooting to exploit the Wildcats struggles guarding the arc. With two teams that like to get up and down, I'm going to take the one playing better and with more talent in Kentucky.

- Tennessee will travel to Missouri and face an upstart Tigers team. Many, including myself, wrote off Mizzou after Jontay Porter went down with a season ending injury, but they have come out with some good shooting and tough defense to get off to a 9-3 start. Now, I don't think they will win this game, but I think it'll be a game for longer than a lot of people expect. Missouri is going to slow the game down and make Tennessee execute against their tough defense, which isn't as easy as it sounds. Obviously the Volunteers have an elite offense and they are going to get buckets, but I don't think it's going to be easy. Ultimately, the major difference will be Jeremiah Tilmon, the Tigers' center who is constantly in foul trouble, and has fouled out in four contests. Tennessee likes to attack the rim, and I imagine that with get Tilmon some fouls. Without him, there isn't really a rim protector on the roster, so Tennessee should be able to overwhelm them with their size at all five spots and get to the rim with relative ease.

- On Monday night, Alabama will play in the National Championship game in football. Not that it matters but I think they'll win. I think the defense will get to Trevor Lawrence, but that's besides the point. The next night, however, the basketball team will travel to Baton Rogue and take on LSU. Be ready for some college football talk during that broadcast, but the on court battle should be very interesting. As I mentioned in the preview of the Kentucky game, Alabama struggles with turnovers, which helps LSU, as they have the third highest steal percentage in the nation. However, they struggle with giving up offensive rebounds, and that's an area where Alabama excels. Ultimately, I think this game will come down to three point shooting. Neither team does well at the arc on either side of the ball, so whoever can make more threes will win. I think that if Tremont Waters for LSU or John Petty for Alabama can get hot, they'll give their team the edge. Waters has been on and off this year, but I really like him and he's sort of Trae Young-esque, so if he gets going, it'll be tough to stop. Meanwhile, Petty is one of the most on and off players in the nation, and although he hasn't shown it yet this season, he can go absolutely unconscious from deep in any given game. I'm going to give the slight edge to LSU at home, but it'll be a good one.

- Auburn will travel to Mississippi to take on the Rebels in what looked like a sure thing before the season, but Ole Miss has looked really good so far and has a shot to knock off the Tigers. The key will be taking care of the ball. Auburn has the highest turnover percentage in the country on the defensive end, so if Mississippi can hold onto the ball and slow the game down from the frantic pace the Tigers like to play at, they have a shot. I think Auburn pulls it out late, but not before Ole Miss gives them a game and really proves they are going to be a problem all season in the SEC.

- Florida will head to Fayetteville to face Arkansas, and that brings about another battle of pace. The Hogs love to run, with one of the 20 fastest paces on the offensive end as a result of their high pressure defense and numerous transition opportunities. Meanwhile, Florida will buckle down and play tough defense, forcing opponents into the second longest possessions in Division I. I'm really interested to see how freshman guards Andrew Nembhard and Noah Locke handle the press for Florida, as if they can't take care of the ball, Arkansas will have a big advantage. The Gators guards are skilled at getting steals, but Arkansas' point guard Jalen Harris rarely turns it over and has one of the best assists to turnover ratios in the nation. Even if Florida is forcing turnovers, that just speeds the game up, which I think favors Arkansas. I like the Razorbacks at home in this one, as I think the young Gators' guards get rattled by their first taste of an SEC road crowd and intense pressure defense for 40 minutes.

Full SEC Schedule 1/4-1/10
1/5
Kentucky @ Alabama
Georgia @ Tennessee
Arkansas @ Texas A&M
South Carolina @ Florida
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt
1/8
Tennessee @ Missouri
Texas A&M @ Kentucky
Mississippi State @ South Carolina
Alabama @ LSU
1/9
Vanderbilt @ Georgia
Auburn @ Ole Miss
Florida @ Arkansas

3 Questions
1. Who will step up and get a tournament bid?
At the moment, there are four, maybe five, teams that can feel really good about their tournament chances. Tennessee, Auburn, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and probably LSU should be in the tournament barring an insane collapse, but this is a noted down year for a lot of major conference teams, and there are a lot of SEC teams that have a chance to capitalize on that and get into the tournament. Florida is in good position as they've avoided bad losses and picked up a nice victories over West Virginia and Butler. Then there is a group of five teams that are really interesting. Mississippi has impressed early in the season, and also have no bad losses, but a neutral court win over Baylor isn't enough to headline a tournament resume. There's Vanderbilt, whose wins over USC and Arizona State are aging poorly thanks to the atrocity that is the Pac-12, and they have an ugly loss to Kent State and they are without star point guard Darius Garland for the rest of the year. Arkansas has a nice win over Indiana, but home losses to Western Kentucky and Georgia Tech aren't great and this is still a young team who hasn't been tested through a conference season. Alabama has losses to Northeastern and Georgia State, but solid wins over Murray State, Arizona, and Penn State. Finally, Missouri has exceeded expectations with wins over UCF and Xavier, but without Jontay Porter it remains to be seen if they can score enough to win games. There are bids to be had, and if some of these teams can continue their hot starts, they can seize those open tournament slots.

2. Who is the best team in the conference?
At the moment, the answer seems clear. Tennessee is in the conversation for the best team in the country (more on that in a second), and they are clearly the team to beat in the SEC. However, it's worth noting there are some legit challengers to that claim. First off, Auburn has arguably the best backcourt in the nation with Jared Harper and Bryce Brown, and I have them inside my top 10. Kentucky is playing it's best basketball of the season at the moment, and it certainly wouldn't be shocking to see John Calipari's team mature down the stretch and blossom into. the best team in the conference. Lastly, I really like Mississippi State, and I think they may actually have the best shot at winning the SEC regular season outside of Tennessee. They have a deep, veteran team, with five players scoring in double figures, and Quinndary Weatherspoon is establishing himself as one of the best players and scorers in not just the SEC, but the country. I think they are underrated, I probably have them a little too low, and they are going to mount a serious SEC title challenge this season.

3. Is Tennessee the best team in the country?
The Volunteers are in the midst of one of the best seasons in tournament history, and the Vols look nearly unstoppable. At the moment, I have Tennessee ranked third, behind Duke and Michigan. However, there are a lot of smart people that think this is the best team in the nation, and it's easy to see why. They are one of the best offensive teams in the country thanks to Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield taking steps forward from already great years, and they hold just one loss. However, to me, Duke has the most talent in the nation, and they've played up to it all season, and they've quite simply looked like the best team in the nation. As for Michigan, they have an elite defensive unit, and they are currently undefeated. However, I think it is possible, if not likely, that the Vols will hold the number one ranking at some point. They have a fairly easy start to conference play,  and the ACC and Big Ten are very tough, so I could see the two teams ahead of them losing and Tennessee claiming the top spot.

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