Houston Basketball Preview

2022-23 Record: 33-4, 17-1 AAC (1st)

Coach: Kelvin Sampson, Tenth Season

Departures: Marcus Sasser, G (Draft)

Jarace Walker, F (Draft)

Tramon Mark, G (Transfer)

Reggie Chaney, F (Graduation, also RIP)

Arrivals: LJ Cryer, G (Transfer from Baylor)
Damian Dunn, G (Transfer from Temple)

Kordelius Jefferson, G (Freshman)
Joseph Tugler, F (Freshman)

Jacob McFarland, C (Freshman)

Projected Starting Lineup

PG: Jamal Shead

SG: LJ Cryer

SF: Damian Dunn

PF: Terrance Arceneaux

C: J'Wan Roberts

Roster Breakdown

Kelvin Sampson has turned the Cougars into a machine and one of the most consistent teams in the nation. They've made the tournament every year since 2018, and haven't lost double digit games at any time in that span. They have lost two first round draft picks in Marcus Sasser and Jarace Walker, but the show goes on, and there's plenty of reason of optimism for the Cougars, starting with their returning talent. Jamal Shead is back and he'll run the show for the Coogs this year. He's in his fourth year with the team, and averaged 10.5 points, 5.4 assists, 3 rebounds, and 1.7 steals a game last season. He can get his own shot or set up for his teammates, and he's one of the best defensive guards in the country, winning AAC Defensive Player of the Year honors last season. He'll need to get better as a shooter, he made just 31% of his threes last year and that was a career high. Still, Shead is an impact player for his defense alone and will be a key member of the team after starting 69 games over the past two seasons. Big man J'Wan Roberts also returns after being a starter last year, starting 36 of 37 games. He was mostly a reserve in his first two years of action, and the redshirt senior broke out, averaging 10 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks. He was the conference's most improved player and earned a spot on the All-AAC Second Team alongside Shead. He's a terrific defender, and improved his offensive game to be a little more diverse with his post moves. He's still mostly just finishing around the rim on offensive rebounds, dump offs, and pick and rolls. Kelvin Sampson also has three returners who played a little more sparingly last year, but will look to be the next breakout player in the Houston developmental pipeline. Emanuel Sharp is a redshirt sophomore this season after he graduated early and joined the program in 2021-22. He's a scoring guard, putting up 5.9 points and 2.2 rebounds in 15.6 minutes a game of action last season. He has a reputation as an excellent shooter, he made 34.7% of his threes as a freshman, and he'll help space the floor for the Coogs. He plays with a swagger that will have fans falling in love with him as he earns more minutes. Ja'vier Francis is a big man who only played 10.3 minutes a game last year, but has clear potential and should step into a bigger role in his junior year. He put up 4.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.1 blocks in those minutes, and as the numbers indicate, he's a terrific shot blocker who a great leaper for a big man. He also just plays hard and has a nose for the ball, two qualities that will earn him minutes on this team. However, the big name circled for a breakout is Terrance Arceneaux. He was the #40 overall player in the 2022 class, and he's an excellent athlete. At 6'6" with long arms, his physical tools stand out, and so does his explosive leaping ability. He has the potential to be a superb defender this year. He only played 13.9 minutes a game off the bench for the Cougars last year and averaged 3.7 points, 2.5 points, and 0.6 steals. I expect him to start and make a much bigger impact this year. His offensive game still needs some developement, he only shot 25% from three and has a bit of a loose handle, but all indication are he's gotten better over the offseason and is ready to handle a much larger role. Mylik Wilson and Cedric Lath are also returning after redshirting last season. Wilson is a guard who spent his first two seasons at Lousiana, where he averaged 12.2 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 2.2 steals a game over those two years. He transferred to Texas Tech for his junior year, and struggled to find playing time, only putting up 2.5 points, 1.7 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.2 steals in 15 minutes a game. He will fit in with the Cougars defensive identity, and should handle backup point guard duties behind Shead. Lath, meanwhile, joined the team midseason and redshirted, but like Sharp did a season earlier. He's a 6'9" big man out of the Ivory Coast, and he's got a lot of raw upside. There's a tough battle for minutes in the front court, but he can also make an impact defensively given his natural tools. He may not see a ton of playing time this year, but he's a name to keep an eye on in my opinion. Ramon Walker is rehabbing from an injury he suffered last year, but could also be a player in the wing rotation thanks to his athleticism. Not only is there returning talent, but Kelvin Sampson brings in some newcomers who will also look to make an impact. LJ Cryer and Damian Dunn have portaled into Houston, and both are projected starters. Cryer is coming off an All-Big 12 season at Baylor, so he's already proven he can hang in this league. He averaged 15 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 2.1 assists a game last season, and he's a guy who can be a go-to scorer. He can do it at all three levels, with a blistering 41.5% from deep after shooting 46.8% as a sophomore. He's also a strong driver, and can hit mid-range pull ups and floaters as well. However, he sometimes falls in love with his own shot, and his defense isn't the strongest part of his game either. Sampson will need to get some defensive buy in and curtail some of his heat check moments to get the best out of Cryer, but there's clearly a great player in there. Dunn, meanwhile, will be a familiar face to Houston fans, as he played against them in the ACC at Temple. He's averaged 14.6 points a game over his four year career in Philly, to go along with 4 rebounds and 2.4 assists. He's improved his jump shot every year to the point where he's a respectable threat from deep, and he could be even more efficient with less defensive attention. He's another three level scorer, although he isn't quite as crafty as Cryer in that department. He's a two time All-AAC player, and he has good size for a guard at 6'5", so I expect him to buy into the defensive system as well. There are also three freshman joining the fray, and the most ready to contribute, at least in my opinion, is Joseph Tugler. He's another prototypical Houston big, with good strength, length, and a junkyard dog mentality. He doesn't have the prettiest offensive game at the moment, but he's more than fine being a screen setter and rebounder at this point in his career. I expect him to have a similar role to what Arceneaux and Francis had last season. Jacob McFarland is another highly touted big, checking in just inside of the top 100 in the 2023 class. He's 6'10" with good athleticism. He runs the floor well and has no problem getting up to throw down dunks or block shots either. However, he still has room to grow, both physically and skill wise. He's not a huge offensive threat, and he definitely needs to put on some more weight. He may not contribute a lot right away given the front court depth already on the roster, but I like McFarland as a long term developmental piece. Finally, guard Kordelius Jefferson joins the fold as well. Ranked just inside the top 150, Jefferson may also struggle to find the court, not for a lack of skill, but because of the guys ahead of being so good already. Jefferson has some three and D potential as an off ball guard, but he can also handle it well and could be an option at point guard as well. 

My Thoughts

If you couldn't already tell, I'm a huge fan of this Houston squad. I think they are a top 10 caliber team. We all know they are going to be great on the defensive side of the ball. Not only is every Kelvin Sampson team super well coached on that end, and he gets buy in from all of his players, but he's also got some real dudes who will get at you defensively. Jamal Shead is an absolute dawg defensively, and the front court is full of players who won't give you an inch in the post. Arceneaux has the potential to be a lockdown wing defender as well, and he's a ceiling raiser if he could reach his potential. He's the sort of elite talent Sampson didn't have until recently, and he could be the X-factor on this roster. Getting Cryer in is also huge, as he has proven he can score in the Big 12, and I wouldn't be shocked to see him lead the Coogs in scoring this season. They really feel like a pretty complete team. They have shooters, they have pure scorers, they have defenders, they have a couple of tablesettlers, they have guys who will rebound. This feels like a team with a super high floor thanks to the defense, and I think they aren't being talked about enough with some of the talent that's on this roster. Sampson has done more with less in recent years, and I think he's now got a really good roster to go with everything else. This is a shorter write up than most, but there isn't more to see. I'm buying a whole lot of Houston stock this year, plain and simple.