First Round
1. Gonzaga vs 16. Fairleigh Dickinson
This one should be fairleigh cut and dry (get it?). The Zags have an overwhelming talent advantage at every position, and for as much as I love Jahlil Jenkins and Darnell Edge jacking up threes for the Knights, they aren't knocking off Gonzaga. That being said, that three point shooting could keep this game close for a while, but after seeing what Gonzaga did to good WCC teams, I think they cover this spread as well.
My Pick: Gonzaga
Confidence: 95%
Gambling: Gonzaga -27
8. Syracuse vs 9. Baylor
It's a battle of the zones in Salt Lake City, with Scott Drew and his 1-1-3 janky matchup zone taking on Jim Boeheim and the patented 2-3. From the start, I think Syracuse is just the more talented team, even without Frank Howard, who was suspended by the university last night. Tyus Battle, Elijah Hughes, and Oshae Brissett might be the three most talented guys in this game, and I mean no disrespect to Baylor, but they should be able to figure things out offensively. The zone also looks like it was tailor made to face Baylor, as the Bears can't really shoot, making 34% of their threes on the season, and Makai Mason and Devontae Bandoo being the only two real threats. However, their shooting woes could end up being an advantage, as they should kill Syracuse on the boards. All year the Orange have struggled on the glass, especially defensively, while Baylor holds the second highest offensive rebounding percentage in the country. While that is worrisome for my Orange, my key to their victory: Buddy Boeheim. The coach's kid has come on strong recently, putting in two great performances in the ACC Tournament, and I think his clutch shooting and the talent advantage leads the Orange to a victory.
My Pick: Syracuse
Confidence: 60%
Gambling: Syracuse -2
5. Marquette vs 12. Murray State
Markus Howard vs Ja Morant. The headline alone is excellent, as we get to see two of the most dynamic players in the country face off. Both players are in the top eight scorers in the country, and with their ability to score, this should be a high scoring affair. Or will it? The first thing to note is they probably won't be matched up with each other, with Marquette putting Sacar Anim on Ja, and Murray State probably throwing Shaq Buchanan at Howard. Those two have great length and athleticism that should bother the two point guards, or at least that's what their coaches will be hoping for. Honestly, the more I look at this game, the more it seems to me like the Racers will be taking an early exit. When it comes down to it, Marquette has a much better supporting cast around Howard than Murray State does Morant, and if Howard can equal Morant's scoring output, not outlandish considering he averaged more points per game, then I trust the rest of the Golden Eagles, mostly the Hauser brothers, to outscore the rest of Murray State. Murray State is great at defending the three point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 28.5% from deep. However, both Hauser brothers have the size to get their shots off over the Racers' defenders, and Howard can make a shot with even a sliver of space, so I trust the Golden Eagles' 39.3% three point percentage to hold up in this one. Finally, Theo John is one of the best rim protectors Murray State will have faced all season, and while he won't dissuade Morant from finishing at the rim, I think he will make things more difficult for Ja and Murray State as a whole, and I don't expect them to approach making 57.2% of the twos, like they did this season. I just don't think this is the team Murray State wanted to see Keep in mind both point guards have the potential to take over the game and give their team the edge, but I think if that doesn't happen, I lean Marquette pretty heavily.
My Pick: Marquette
Confidence: 65%
Gambling: Marquette -3.5
4. Florida State vs 13. Vermont
If there was ever a team that couldn't have gotten a worse matchup, it's Vermont. I love the Catamounts, and I think they have a team capable of winning an NCAA Tournament game. They've got a star in Anthony Lamb, a great collection of role players, headlined by the three Duncan brothers, and a good defense. The one thing they don't have is a collection of athletes, and they will be going up against just that in Florida State. The Seminoles have the twelfth tallest team in the country by average height, and they go eleven deep with long, athletic players. They are so good defensively because of that, and they are ninth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, and I think their defense is absolutely elite. Vermont has been good on the boards this year, but the Noles should be able to overwhelm them with their size and win the battle of the boards. As much as I love Vermont, I don't think they can compete with Florida State in this one.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 80%
Gambling: Florida State -9
6. Buffalo vs 11. Arizona State
There's a little bit of juice to this matchup, with Bobby Hurley returning to coach against his old team in the NCAA Tournament. These two teams play at high paces, and it should be a fun game to watch. Arizona State looked pretty good against St. John's, although to be fair that was St. John's, and they have been a high ceiling, including taking down Kansas, but a low floor, they followed that up with losses to Princeton and Utah. That being said, I think Buffalo just does what the Sun Devils do but better. They both play fast, but the Bulls are faster. They also turn it over less, are a better team attacking the basket, and are better defensively. I'm just not sure where Arizona State holds an advantage here, so I think the Bulls take down their former coach.
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 75%
Gambling: Buffalo -5
3. Texas Tech vs 14. Northern Kentucky
I am a huge fan of Texas Tech. Huge fan. They are an elite defensive team, with the top adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation and they do so much well on that end of the floor. Opponents can barely score against them, holding their opponents to 59.3 points per game, and holding their opponents to 41.3% from inside the arc. That's not ideal for a Northern Kentucky team that does a lot of their work on the interior with big man Drew McDonald. I do think he can do some stuff off the pick and pop, and I like Jalen Tate for their team. However, I don't think they have anyone to stop Jarrett Culver, and I think Davide Moretti can make a few threes. I don't think the Norse can do much of anything against this defense, and the Red Raiders win comfortably.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 90%
Gambling: Texas Tech -13.5
7. Nevada vs 10. Florida
This is a fascinating game. The Wolf Pack clearly have the talent advantage, and in theory, they should be able to rout the Gators. They have a huge size advantage over Florida, with tremendous size in the back court in the Martin twins, and I think they have the talent to dominate this Florida team. The Gators are not very good offensively, and Nevada's size should be a massive problem for guys like KeVaughn Allen and Keyontae Johnson when they are on offense. The Wolf Pack are very streaky however, and I wouldn't be shocked if they completely laid an egg in this one. However, when the Gators' greatest strength, forcing turnovers, is something Nevada doesn't really struggle with, I think the talent and opportunity intersect pretty well for the Pack to win this game.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 75%
Gambling: Nevada -2.5
2. Michigan vs 15. Montana
This is a rare rematch from an opening round tournament game last season, with the Grizzlies getting another shot at Michigan after losing 61-47 in their game last season. The Wolverines are back as a defensive juggernaut, ranking second in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they are incredible on that end. Montana thrives offensively, ranking 25th in three point percentage and twelfth in two point percentage on the season, so I don't think that's an ideal matchup for this team. Michigan is also very good offensively, rarely turning it over and having bucket getters like Zavier Simpson and Jordan Poole. I think Michigan wins this one fairly comfortably, although I don't expect a ton of points to be scored.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 90%
Gambling: Michigan -15, under 130
Second Round
1. Gonzaga vs 9. Syracuse
This is a fascinating game for me. Maybe it's just because I'm a Cute homer, but I don't think this is as open and shut as you might think. Despite how amazing this Gonzaga offense is, we have seen them struggle with a 2-3 zone before. They needed a buzzer beater from Rui Hachimura to take down Washington, who runs basically the same system as Syracuse, except worse. Syracuse can also force turnovers, which is something Josh Perkins has struggled with in the past. That being said, the front court of the Bulldogs is so good, and I don't think the Orange will have any sort of answer for Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke. While Tyus Battle might be able to get some buckets, their offense just won't be good enough to keep pace with an elite unit, and I think Gonzaga takes this one.
My Pick: Gonzaga
Confidence: 70%
5. Marquette vs 4. Florida State
Just like Florida State was a bad matchup for Vermont, they are a bad matchup for the Golden Eagles as well. The one thing that can bother Markus Howard is length and athleticism, and that is something the Seminoles have in abundance. With his smaller height, I think he will struggle to get his shot off against the long arms off guys like Trent Forrest and MJ Walker, and he'll need to be taking a ton of crazy step back jumpers, which he does very well to be fair to him, although it won't be as easy. It also takes the Hauser brothers, who I think are very key to the Golden Eagles' success, out of the game on both ends, and finally, I think that turnovers is going to be a big area where the Noles thrive, and
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 70%
6. Buffalo vs 3. Texas Tech
It's offense versus defense in this one, and while I normally side with offense in these type of games, I think there's a lot going for Texas Tech here. Buffalo is at their best attacking the rim, and Texas Tech does an excellent job of defending the the paint, with Tariq Owens being a good shot blocker and Chris Beard's defensive scheme funneling their opponents into bad situations. I think the Red Raiders control the pace of this game, forcing the Bulls into more half court situations, and with their questionable shooting on the year, I don't know if Buffalo can win this game. I also come back to Jarrett Culver being the best player on the floor, and I don't think there is a good match up for him on the Bulls' roster. However, I do think their back court, specifically Devonta Jordan, can really take the back court of Matt Mooney and Davide Moretti out of what they want to do, so that's something to watch. I do think the Red Raiders' advantages outweigh their detriments, so I think they pull this one out.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 70%
7. Nevada vs 2. Michigan
This is such an intriguing matchup for so many reasons. I think there's an argument to be made that Nevada is the more talented team of these two. However, the coaching advantage is pretty stark, with John Beilein being one of the top coaches in the country and Eric Musselmann not being the best with a clipboard. Similar to Kihei Clark at Virginia, I really wonder how Zavier Simpson will do in this game. The point guard for Michigan is really undersized, and while he's an excellent defender, I don't know if he can guard 6'7" Cody Martin. Plus, Jordan Poole isn't the biggest and strongest guy either, and he could be matched up with Caleb Martin at times in this game, which is a bad matchup in my opinion. Honestly, with team defense, the Wolverines can cover up some of their issues, but what Nevada does really well is exploit mismatches, and I think they can do that. Plus, Michigan's offense has been inconsistent throughout the season, with their shooters not making shots, and I think that continues here and the Wolf Pack pull off another March upset.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 55%
Sweet Sixteen
1. Gonzaga vs 4. Florida State
A rematch from last season's tournament in which Florida State took down the Zags in the the Sweet Sixteen, they will be looking to repeat that here. However, I don't know if they can. To start off, Gonzaga is just so good offensively, and I think they are one of the few teams that Florida State's athletes just won't be able to affect them, especially in the front court. Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke are both in the top tier athletically, and that is a huge advantage against Florida State. I think the biggest area for concern for the Bulldogs will be Josh Perkins, as he has a reputation for crumpling under pressure, but I think he has been quite good this year and I'm not worried about his turnovers. I think Gonzaga can control the glass, and especially do a good job of forcing the Noles into taking threes, where they struggle, so I'm going with Gonzaga here.
My Pick: Gonzaga
Confidence: 60%
3. Texas Tech vs 7. Nevada
This is a matchup of two wildly different teams, with Nevada relying on overwhelming teams with talent, while Texas Tech might not be the most talented, but they play within their system really well and the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. They will be a similar challenge to Michigan for Nevada, although I think the Red Raiders are actually better, both as a counter to Nevada and overall. To me, they have the better defense as well as the best player on the court in Jarrett Culver. I think their particular defensive strategy can really neutralize Nevada, and I don't think the Wolf Pack are well organized enough to be able to take down this defense. With the team shooting well as a whole recently, Tech is dangerous, and I think they succeed in taking down the Wolf Pack.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 65%
Elite Eight
1. Gonzaga vs 3. Texas Tech
There might not be a game I am more excited for, as outside of Syracuse, these have been my two favorite teams in the country this year. It's a matchup of the top offense against the top defense in the country, and I'm betraying my principles of offense wins out in March, since I think the Red Raiders win this one. I think the biggest x-factor will be Killian Tillie, the Gonzaga big man who missed most of the season, and here's why. The Red Raiders ice their ball screen coverage, which means they have a big man come way out and stay with the point guard, forcing him to one side of the court with the intention of forcing them to the baseline. One way to beat that is with a pick and pop, and Tillie is one of the best shooting bigs in the nation, so he could really exploit that defense, if he is fully healthy. I don't know that he is, and I don't think Brandon Clarke or Rui Hachimura would be as effective in that role, plus I think the physicality a guy like Matt Mooney plays with can really bother Josh Perkins, so I like the defensive advantage Texas Tech holds. On the other side of the ball, they have been shooting very well recently, making 42% of their threes over their last ten games, and I think they have just enough shooting to get it done.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 55%
Final Four
1. Duke vs 3. Texas Tech
If you remember all the way back to December, these two teams faced off on a neutral floor, and it was a really good game. The Red Raiders gave Duke everything they could handle, but in the end, it was the Blue Devils walking away with an eleven point victory, Unfortunately for Chris Beard, I don't see that changing here, with Duke repeating in the victory. Despite all of their best efforts, I don't think they will be able to stop Duke from getting into the paint, and even if they are successful in keeping them on one side of the court, Zion and RJ are just so good, I think they make the shot that Texas Tech is giving them anyways. Plus, this will be the best defense Texas Tech will have to face in the tournament, and I think that will give them problems, with Duke holding athletic advantages all over the court. The Blue Devils advance to the national title after winning this game.
My Pick: Duke
Confidence: 60%
1. Virginia vs 2. Kentucky
This is actually a super interesting game to me, maybe more so than any other we could see in the tournament. I really like both of these teams, and think they are deservedly talked about as the elites in the nation. With Virginia, they would've shaken the narrative that they can't win in March by this point, and their slow pace could give Kentucky problems. With the Wildcats, they will surely want another shot at Duke after their opening night disaster, and they are perhaps the closest thing to the Blue Devils in the nation, and we saw how that went twice for Virginia. I think Kentucky can give Virginia a lot of trouble on the glass with their size and atheticism, plus they can space the Hoos out a bit with their shooting. However, this Kentucky team isn't great at defending the three point line, and Virginia will absolutely exploit that. The Kyle Guy vs Tyler Herro matchup will be amazing, but I think the decider will be De'Andre Hunter against PJ Washington. I think Hunter win that battle on both ends of the court, so I'm saying Virginian gets their third shot at Duke.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 60%
Final
1. Duke vs 1. Virginia
Here we are, with Zion taking on the team that lost to UMBC. It figures to be a great game, and I'll tell you what, I think Virginia can match up pretty well. Even though they lost the last game they played against Duke by 10 points, I think the 13-21 shooting performance from behind the arc was an aberration for the Blue Devils. Still, this team has found a way to beat the Cavs twice, so they should be able to do it again, especially with a freak of nation like Zion.
Or will they? I have said that I think Duke's poor three point shooting will catch up with them at some point this season, and we saw that when they lost Syracuse. Plus, the pack line is very effective, and I think it'll make things very difficult for the Blue Devils. Plus, De'Andre Hunter is arguably the best matchup for Zion in the nation, and he's probably the third best defensive player in the nation. His length and athleticism can match up with Zion, and I think their shooting ultimately ends top being the difference, with Kyle Guy hitting a go ahead three with 5 seconds left to win Virginia the national championship.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 51%
1. Gonzaga vs 16. Fairleigh Dickinson
This one should be fairleigh cut and dry (get it?). The Zags have an overwhelming talent advantage at every position, and for as much as I love Jahlil Jenkins and Darnell Edge jacking up threes for the Knights, they aren't knocking off Gonzaga. That being said, that three point shooting could keep this game close for a while, but after seeing what Gonzaga did to good WCC teams, I think they cover this spread as well.
My Pick: Gonzaga
Confidence: 95%
Gambling: Gonzaga -27
8. Syracuse vs 9. Baylor
It's a battle of the zones in Salt Lake City, with Scott Drew and his 1-1-3 janky matchup zone taking on Jim Boeheim and the patented 2-3. From the start, I think Syracuse is just the more talented team, even without Frank Howard, who was suspended by the university last night. Tyus Battle, Elijah Hughes, and Oshae Brissett might be the three most talented guys in this game, and I mean no disrespect to Baylor, but they should be able to figure things out offensively. The zone also looks like it was tailor made to face Baylor, as the Bears can't really shoot, making 34% of their threes on the season, and Makai Mason and Devontae Bandoo being the only two real threats. However, their shooting woes could end up being an advantage, as they should kill Syracuse on the boards. All year the Orange have struggled on the glass, especially defensively, while Baylor holds the second highest offensive rebounding percentage in the country. While that is worrisome for my Orange, my key to their victory: Buddy Boeheim. The coach's kid has come on strong recently, putting in two great performances in the ACC Tournament, and I think his clutch shooting and the talent advantage leads the Orange to a victory.
My Pick: Syracuse
Confidence: 60%
Gambling: Syracuse -2
5. Marquette vs 12. Murray State
Markus Howard vs Ja Morant. The headline alone is excellent, as we get to see two of the most dynamic players in the country face off. Both players are in the top eight scorers in the country, and with their ability to score, this should be a high scoring affair. Or will it? The first thing to note is they probably won't be matched up with each other, with Marquette putting Sacar Anim on Ja, and Murray State probably throwing Shaq Buchanan at Howard. Those two have great length and athleticism that should bother the two point guards, or at least that's what their coaches will be hoping for. Honestly, the more I look at this game, the more it seems to me like the Racers will be taking an early exit. When it comes down to it, Marquette has a much better supporting cast around Howard than Murray State does Morant, and if Howard can equal Morant's scoring output, not outlandish considering he averaged more points per game, then I trust the rest of the Golden Eagles, mostly the Hauser brothers, to outscore the rest of Murray State. Murray State is great at defending the three point line, allowing opponents to shoot just 28.5% from deep. However, both Hauser brothers have the size to get their shots off over the Racers' defenders, and Howard can make a shot with even a sliver of space, so I trust the Golden Eagles' 39.3% three point percentage to hold up in this one. Finally, Theo John is one of the best rim protectors Murray State will have faced all season, and while he won't dissuade Morant from finishing at the rim, I think he will make things more difficult for Ja and Murray State as a whole, and I don't expect them to approach making 57.2% of the twos, like they did this season. I just don't think this is the team Murray State wanted to see Keep in mind both point guards have the potential to take over the game and give their team the edge, but I think if that doesn't happen, I lean Marquette pretty heavily.
My Pick: Marquette
Confidence: 65%
Gambling: Marquette -3.5
4. Florida State vs 13. Vermont
If there was ever a team that couldn't have gotten a worse matchup, it's Vermont. I love the Catamounts, and I think they have a team capable of winning an NCAA Tournament game. They've got a star in Anthony Lamb, a great collection of role players, headlined by the three Duncan brothers, and a good defense. The one thing they don't have is a collection of athletes, and they will be going up against just that in Florida State. The Seminoles have the twelfth tallest team in the country by average height, and they go eleven deep with long, athletic players. They are so good defensively because of that, and they are ninth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, and I think their defense is absolutely elite. Vermont has been good on the boards this year, but the Noles should be able to overwhelm them with their size and win the battle of the boards. As much as I love Vermont, I don't think they can compete with Florida State in this one.
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 80%
Gambling: Florida State -9
6. Buffalo vs 11. Arizona State
There's a little bit of juice to this matchup, with Bobby Hurley returning to coach against his old team in the NCAA Tournament. These two teams play at high paces, and it should be a fun game to watch. Arizona State looked pretty good against St. John's, although to be fair that was St. John's, and they have been a high ceiling, including taking down Kansas, but a low floor, they followed that up with losses to Princeton and Utah. That being said, I think Buffalo just does what the Sun Devils do but better. They both play fast, but the Bulls are faster. They also turn it over less, are a better team attacking the basket, and are better defensively. I'm just not sure where Arizona State holds an advantage here, so I think the Bulls take down their former coach.
My Pick: Buffalo
Confidence: 75%
Gambling: Buffalo -5
3. Texas Tech vs 14. Northern Kentucky
I am a huge fan of Texas Tech. Huge fan. They are an elite defensive team, with the top adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation and they do so much well on that end of the floor. Opponents can barely score against them, holding their opponents to 59.3 points per game, and holding their opponents to 41.3% from inside the arc. That's not ideal for a Northern Kentucky team that does a lot of their work on the interior with big man Drew McDonald. I do think he can do some stuff off the pick and pop, and I like Jalen Tate for their team. However, I don't think they have anyone to stop Jarrett Culver, and I think Davide Moretti can make a few threes. I don't think the Norse can do much of anything against this defense, and the Red Raiders win comfortably.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 90%
Gambling: Texas Tech -13.5
7. Nevada vs 10. Florida
This is a fascinating game. The Wolf Pack clearly have the talent advantage, and in theory, they should be able to rout the Gators. They have a huge size advantage over Florida, with tremendous size in the back court in the Martin twins, and I think they have the talent to dominate this Florida team. The Gators are not very good offensively, and Nevada's size should be a massive problem for guys like KeVaughn Allen and Keyontae Johnson when they are on offense. The Wolf Pack are very streaky however, and I wouldn't be shocked if they completely laid an egg in this one. However, when the Gators' greatest strength, forcing turnovers, is something Nevada doesn't really struggle with, I think the talent and opportunity intersect pretty well for the Pack to win this game.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 75%
Gambling: Nevada -2.5
2. Michigan vs 15. Montana
This is a rare rematch from an opening round tournament game last season, with the Grizzlies getting another shot at Michigan after losing 61-47 in their game last season. The Wolverines are back as a defensive juggernaut, ranking second in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they are incredible on that end. Montana thrives offensively, ranking 25th in three point percentage and twelfth in two point percentage on the season, so I don't think that's an ideal matchup for this team. Michigan is also very good offensively, rarely turning it over and having bucket getters like Zavier Simpson and Jordan Poole. I think Michigan wins this one fairly comfortably, although I don't expect a ton of points to be scored.
My Pick: Michigan
Confidence: 90%
Gambling: Michigan -15, under 130
Second Round
1. Gonzaga vs 9. Syracuse
This is a fascinating game for me. Maybe it's just because I'm a Cute homer, but I don't think this is as open and shut as you might think. Despite how amazing this Gonzaga offense is, we have seen them struggle with a 2-3 zone before. They needed a buzzer beater from Rui Hachimura to take down Washington, who runs basically the same system as Syracuse, except worse. Syracuse can also force turnovers, which is something Josh Perkins has struggled with in the past. That being said, the front court of the Bulldogs is so good, and I don't think the Orange will have any sort of answer for Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke. While Tyus Battle might be able to get some buckets, their offense just won't be good enough to keep pace with an elite unit, and I think Gonzaga takes this one.
My Pick: Gonzaga
Confidence: 70%
5. Marquette vs 4. Florida State
Just like Florida State was a bad matchup for Vermont, they are a bad matchup for the Golden Eagles as well. The one thing that can bother Markus Howard is length and athleticism, and that is something the Seminoles have in abundance. With his smaller height, I think he will struggle to get his shot off against the long arms off guys like Trent Forrest and MJ Walker, and he'll need to be taking a ton of crazy step back jumpers, which he does very well to be fair to him, although it won't be as easy. It also takes the Hauser brothers, who I think are very key to the Golden Eagles' success, out of the game on both ends, and finally, I think that turnovers is going to be a big area where the Noles thrive, and
My Pick: Florida State
Confidence: 70%
6. Buffalo vs 3. Texas Tech
It's offense versus defense in this one, and while I normally side with offense in these type of games, I think there's a lot going for Texas Tech here. Buffalo is at their best attacking the rim, and Texas Tech does an excellent job of defending the the paint, with Tariq Owens being a good shot blocker and Chris Beard's defensive scheme funneling their opponents into bad situations. I think the Red Raiders control the pace of this game, forcing the Bulls into more half court situations, and with their questionable shooting on the year, I don't know if Buffalo can win this game. I also come back to Jarrett Culver being the best player on the floor, and I don't think there is a good match up for him on the Bulls' roster. However, I do think their back court, specifically Devonta Jordan, can really take the back court of Matt Mooney and Davide Moretti out of what they want to do, so that's something to watch. I do think the Red Raiders' advantages outweigh their detriments, so I think they pull this one out.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 70%
7. Nevada vs 2. Michigan
This is such an intriguing matchup for so many reasons. I think there's an argument to be made that Nevada is the more talented team of these two. However, the coaching advantage is pretty stark, with John Beilein being one of the top coaches in the country and Eric Musselmann not being the best with a clipboard. Similar to Kihei Clark at Virginia, I really wonder how Zavier Simpson will do in this game. The point guard for Michigan is really undersized, and while he's an excellent defender, I don't know if he can guard 6'7" Cody Martin. Plus, Jordan Poole isn't the biggest and strongest guy either, and he could be matched up with Caleb Martin at times in this game, which is a bad matchup in my opinion. Honestly, with team defense, the Wolverines can cover up some of their issues, but what Nevada does really well is exploit mismatches, and I think they can do that. Plus, Michigan's offense has been inconsistent throughout the season, with their shooters not making shots, and I think that continues here and the Wolf Pack pull off another March upset.
My Pick: Nevada
Confidence: 55%
Sweet Sixteen
1. Gonzaga vs 4. Florida State
A rematch from last season's tournament in which Florida State took down the Zags in the the Sweet Sixteen, they will be looking to repeat that here. However, I don't know if they can. To start off, Gonzaga is just so good offensively, and I think they are one of the few teams that Florida State's athletes just won't be able to affect them, especially in the front court. Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke are both in the top tier athletically, and that is a huge advantage against Florida State. I think the biggest area for concern for the Bulldogs will be Josh Perkins, as he has a reputation for crumpling under pressure, but I think he has been quite good this year and I'm not worried about his turnovers. I think Gonzaga can control the glass, and especially do a good job of forcing the Noles into taking threes, where they struggle, so I'm going with Gonzaga here.
My Pick: Gonzaga
Confidence: 60%
3. Texas Tech vs 7. Nevada
This is a matchup of two wildly different teams, with Nevada relying on overwhelming teams with talent, while Texas Tech might not be the most talented, but they play within their system really well and the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. They will be a similar challenge to Michigan for Nevada, although I think the Red Raiders are actually better, both as a counter to Nevada and overall. To me, they have the better defense as well as the best player on the court in Jarrett Culver. I think their particular defensive strategy can really neutralize Nevada, and I don't think the Wolf Pack are well organized enough to be able to take down this defense. With the team shooting well as a whole recently, Tech is dangerous, and I think they succeed in taking down the Wolf Pack.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 65%
Elite Eight
1. Gonzaga vs 3. Texas Tech
There might not be a game I am more excited for, as outside of Syracuse, these have been my two favorite teams in the country this year. It's a matchup of the top offense against the top defense in the country, and I'm betraying my principles of offense wins out in March, since I think the Red Raiders win this one. I think the biggest x-factor will be Killian Tillie, the Gonzaga big man who missed most of the season, and here's why. The Red Raiders ice their ball screen coverage, which means they have a big man come way out and stay with the point guard, forcing him to one side of the court with the intention of forcing them to the baseline. One way to beat that is with a pick and pop, and Tillie is one of the best shooting bigs in the nation, so he could really exploit that defense, if he is fully healthy. I don't know that he is, and I don't think Brandon Clarke or Rui Hachimura would be as effective in that role, plus I think the physicality a guy like Matt Mooney plays with can really bother Josh Perkins, so I like the defensive advantage Texas Tech holds. On the other side of the ball, they have been shooting very well recently, making 42% of their threes over their last ten games, and I think they have just enough shooting to get it done.
My Pick: Texas Tech
Confidence: 55%
Final Four
1. Duke vs 3. Texas Tech
If you remember all the way back to December, these two teams faced off on a neutral floor, and it was a really good game. The Red Raiders gave Duke everything they could handle, but in the end, it was the Blue Devils walking away with an eleven point victory, Unfortunately for Chris Beard, I don't see that changing here, with Duke repeating in the victory. Despite all of their best efforts, I don't think they will be able to stop Duke from getting into the paint, and even if they are successful in keeping them on one side of the court, Zion and RJ are just so good, I think they make the shot that Texas Tech is giving them anyways. Plus, this will be the best defense Texas Tech will have to face in the tournament, and I think that will give them problems, with Duke holding athletic advantages all over the court. The Blue Devils advance to the national title after winning this game.
My Pick: Duke
Confidence: 60%
1. Virginia vs 2. Kentucky
This is actually a super interesting game to me, maybe more so than any other we could see in the tournament. I really like both of these teams, and think they are deservedly talked about as the elites in the nation. With Virginia, they would've shaken the narrative that they can't win in March by this point, and their slow pace could give Kentucky problems. With the Wildcats, they will surely want another shot at Duke after their opening night disaster, and they are perhaps the closest thing to the Blue Devils in the nation, and we saw how that went twice for Virginia. I think Kentucky can give Virginia a lot of trouble on the glass with their size and atheticism, plus they can space the Hoos out a bit with their shooting. However, this Kentucky team isn't great at defending the three point line, and Virginia will absolutely exploit that. The Kyle Guy vs Tyler Herro matchup will be amazing, but I think the decider will be De'Andre Hunter against PJ Washington. I think Hunter win that battle on both ends of the court, so I'm saying Virginian gets their third shot at Duke.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 60%
Final
1. Duke vs 1. Virginia
Here we are, with Zion taking on the team that lost to UMBC. It figures to be a great game, and I'll tell you what, I think Virginia can match up pretty well. Even though they lost the last game they played against Duke by 10 points, I think the 13-21 shooting performance from behind the arc was an aberration for the Blue Devils. Still, this team has found a way to beat the Cavs twice, so they should be able to do it again, especially with a freak of nation like Zion.
Or will they? I have said that I think Duke's poor three point shooting will catch up with them at some point this season, and we saw that when they lost Syracuse. Plus, the pack line is very effective, and I think it'll make things very difficult for the Blue Devils. Plus, De'Andre Hunter is arguably the best matchup for Zion in the nation, and he's probably the third best defensive player in the nation. His length and athleticism can match up with Zion, and I think their shooting ultimately ends top being the difference, with Kyle Guy hitting a go ahead three with 5 seconds left to win Virginia the national championship.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 51%
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