Season in Review
The Ohio Valley made noise for having two of the top mid majors in Belmont and Murray State. The Bruins made news for beating UCLA on the road, but they also swept inner city rival Lipscomb and swept through the conference at 16-2. Meanwhile, Murray State has Ja Morant, the dynamic point guard who looks like he'll be going high in the lottery. They also went 16-2 in the Ohio Valley, and they have been running through the conference. They have sort of covered up how bad the rest of the conference has been, with only two other teams above .500 in conference play, and they bottom 8 of the conference has been pretty bad. However, the semifinals and on should be very fun as we hopefully get Belmont vs Murray State Part 2.
Bracket
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Contenders
Belmont (25-4, 16-2)
While Ja Morant grabbed a lot of the headlines, Belmont has been the best team in the Ohio Valley this season. Their head coach is Rick Byrd, who is one of the best offensive minds in the sport, and they have a lot of talent of their own. Dylan Windler has been every bit as good as Morant this season, as the senior forward scored 21 points and grabbed 10 rebounds this season, which are elite numbers for anyone. I've always been impressed with his ability to just take what comes to him. Whenever I watch them play, he never seems to take over, but his stats will flash on the screen and he'll have 20 and 8 with 5 minutes left without every forcing up a shot. Bird has also manufactured a ton of excellent role players, from Kevin McClain, a knockdown shooter, Nick Muszynski, a big man who does all the dirty work, Grayson Murphy, a point guard who does a great job distributing the ball, and countless others. Their offense is eighteenth in adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom, and he is shooting 59.7% from two point range, second best in the country. This is an elite offense that can match up with pretty much every team in the nation, and they can compete not just in the OVC, but the NCAA Tournament.
Murray State (25-4, 16-2)
The Racers are the reigning OVC Tournament Champions and they possess Ja Morant, probably the best player in the conference. The sophomore point guard is not only an insane athlete, but a great playmaker who has been putting up insane stats all season. He averaged 24.1 points, 10.3 assists, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.9 steals. For those keeping track at home, Morant is eighth in scoring and first in assists in the nation, and he posted two double doubles during the season, as well as 18 games with double digit assists. A 29 point, 13 rebound, 12 assist game is bonkers, which he did against Missouri State. They don't have the supporting cast that Belmont and Dylan Windler possesses, although they do have Ohio Valley Defensive Player of the Year Shaq Buchannon, but Morant is electric and he can carry this team to a tournament victory
Sleeper Team
Jacksonville State (23-8, 15-3)
It may be a stretch to call the third best team that lost three games in conference play all year a "sleeper", but given how overwhelmingly talented and favored the Bruins and Racers are, I wanted to throw the Gamecocks some love. They went 3-0 against Belmont and Murray State this season, and the Gamecocks have the best chance to knock off one of the two powerhouses. They have had the best defense through conference play, and they lead the conference with 39.9 rebounds a game, so they've got the defensive effort to match up with the dynamic offenses of Belmont and Murray State. Plus, they have All Conference player Jason Burrell, so the Gamecocks have the best chances to steal the tournament title away from the two favorites.
Players to Watch
Ja Morant
Stats: 24.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 10.3 APG, 1.9 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 49.8/34/81.2
Good luck stopping the conference Player of the Year in the potential lottery pick. He has led the Racers to an excellent season with some great individual play. He failed to score in double digits just once this season, and as I alluded to earlier, his stat lines are insane. Seriously, check these out. It's hard to properly contextualize just how good he's been, especially for a mid-major league, but he is arguably the best passer in the sport, a high level athlete who has thrown down some incredible dunks, and a skilled finisher around the basket. You can only really hope to slow him down, as he will be able to beat his man seemingly at will, and he is going to put on a show whenever he steps on the court.
Dylan Windler
Stats: 21.1 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 54.7/43.2/84.4
Windler didn't get the recognition that Morant did, but he was every bit as good and as important to his team. Like Morant, he averaged a double double, although his was with rebounds, the most in the conference, which is all the more impressive given that he plays on the wing. He has a sweet shooting stroke, finishing second in the conference with a 43.2% three point percentage, and he is also very athletic. He will punish smaller players in the post and take slower guys off the bounce, making him nearly impossible to guard for most OVC teams. He eclipsed 30 points 7 times this season, including a career high 41 points in a win over Morehead State. He's a much different player than Morant, but equally as effective and he should make noise throughout the tournament.
Terry Taylor
Stats: 20.6 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 53.6/34.1/73.5
First off, I want to give a shoutout to Nick Mayo. The senior forward had an incredible season and would've been in this space had Eastern Kentucky made the tournament and not been a mess around him. Instead, we get the equally deserving Taylor, a big guard who often plays the four for Austin Peay. He finished fourth in the conference in scoring and third in rebounding, making him a threat in a variety of ways. If you like gaudy stat lines, look no further than his 42 points, 18 rebound performance against Morehead State for what Taylor is capable of. The Governors have a tough road to the bid, but with Terry leading them, they have a shot.
My All Conference Teams
First Team
G: Ja Morant, Murray State
G: Terry Taylor, Austin Peay
F: Nick Mayo, Eastern Kentucky
F: Dylan Windler, Belmont
F: Jason Burnell, Jacksonville State
Second Team
G: Kevin McClain, Belmont
G: Jr. Clay, Tennessee Tech
G: Shaq Buchanan, Murray State
F: Lamontray Harris, Morehead State
F: Nick Muszynski, Belmont
My Pick: Belmont over Murray State
As much as I love Ja Morant and would love to see him in the NCAA Tournament, I don't think we will. Simply put, Belmont has better players than the Racers, and paired with one of the best coaches in the nation, they should have the advantage in this one. They haven't lost a game since January 17, and handily beat Murray State on the road during that stretch. I don't know what Murray State's answer to either Windler or Nick Muszynski is, and short of Morant going wild, which he is very capable of doing, I think Belmont goes dancing.
The Ohio Valley made noise for having two of the top mid majors in Belmont and Murray State. The Bruins made news for beating UCLA on the road, but they also swept inner city rival Lipscomb and swept through the conference at 16-2. Meanwhile, Murray State has Ja Morant, the dynamic point guard who looks like he'll be going high in the lottery. They also went 16-2 in the Ohio Valley, and they have been running through the conference. They have sort of covered up how bad the rest of the conference has been, with only two other teams above .500 in conference play, and they bottom 8 of the conference has been pretty bad. However, the semifinals and on should be very fun as we hopefully get Belmont vs Murray State Part 2.
Bracket
Contenders
Belmont (25-4, 16-2)
While Ja Morant grabbed a lot of the headlines, Belmont has been the best team in the Ohio Valley this season. Their head coach is Rick Byrd, who is one of the best offensive minds in the sport, and they have a lot of talent of their own. Dylan Windler has been every bit as good as Morant this season, as the senior forward scored 21 points and grabbed 10 rebounds this season, which are elite numbers for anyone. I've always been impressed with his ability to just take what comes to him. Whenever I watch them play, he never seems to take over, but his stats will flash on the screen and he'll have 20 and 8 with 5 minutes left without every forcing up a shot. Bird has also manufactured a ton of excellent role players, from Kevin McClain, a knockdown shooter, Nick Muszynski, a big man who does all the dirty work, Grayson Murphy, a point guard who does a great job distributing the ball, and countless others. Their offense is eighteenth in adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom, and he is shooting 59.7% from two point range, second best in the country. This is an elite offense that can match up with pretty much every team in the nation, and they can compete not just in the OVC, but the NCAA Tournament.
Murray State (25-4, 16-2)
The Racers are the reigning OVC Tournament Champions and they possess Ja Morant, probably the best player in the conference. The sophomore point guard is not only an insane athlete, but a great playmaker who has been putting up insane stats all season. He averaged 24.1 points, 10.3 assists, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.9 steals. For those keeping track at home, Morant is eighth in scoring and first in assists in the nation, and he posted two double doubles during the season, as well as 18 games with double digit assists. A 29 point, 13 rebound, 12 assist game is bonkers, which he did against Missouri State. They don't have the supporting cast that Belmont and Dylan Windler possesses, although they do have Ohio Valley Defensive Player of the Year Shaq Buchannon, but Morant is electric and he can carry this team to a tournament victory
Sleeper Team
Jacksonville State (23-8, 15-3)
It may be a stretch to call the third best team that lost three games in conference play all year a "sleeper", but given how overwhelmingly talented and favored the Bruins and Racers are, I wanted to throw the Gamecocks some love. They went 3-0 against Belmont and Murray State this season, and the Gamecocks have the best chance to knock off one of the two powerhouses. They have had the best defense through conference play, and they lead the conference with 39.9 rebounds a game, so they've got the defensive effort to match up with the dynamic offenses of Belmont and Murray State. Plus, they have All Conference player Jason Burrell, so the Gamecocks have the best chances to steal the tournament title away from the two favorites.
Players to Watch
Ja Morant
Stats: 24.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 10.3 APG, 1.9 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 49.8/34/81.2
Good luck stopping the conference Player of the Year in the potential lottery pick. He has led the Racers to an excellent season with some great individual play. He failed to score in double digits just once this season, and as I alluded to earlier, his stat lines are insane. Seriously, check these out. It's hard to properly contextualize just how good he's been, especially for a mid-major league, but he is arguably the best passer in the sport, a high level athlete who has thrown down some incredible dunks, and a skilled finisher around the basket. You can only really hope to slow him down, as he will be able to beat his man seemingly at will, and he is going to put on a show whenever he steps on the court.
Dylan Windler
Stats: 21.1 PPG, 10.3 RPG, 2.5 APG, 1.4 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 54.7/43.2/84.4
Windler didn't get the recognition that Morant did, but he was every bit as good and as important to his team. Like Morant, he averaged a double double, although his was with rebounds, the most in the conference, which is all the more impressive given that he plays on the wing. He has a sweet shooting stroke, finishing second in the conference with a 43.2% three point percentage, and he is also very athletic. He will punish smaller players in the post and take slower guys off the bounce, making him nearly impossible to guard for most OVC teams. He eclipsed 30 points 7 times this season, including a career high 41 points in a win over Morehead State. He's a much different player than Morant, but equally as effective and he should make noise throughout the tournament.
Terry Taylor
Stats: 20.6 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 1.7 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.8 BPG, 53.6/34.1/73.5
First off, I want to give a shoutout to Nick Mayo. The senior forward had an incredible season and would've been in this space had Eastern Kentucky made the tournament and not been a mess around him. Instead, we get the equally deserving Taylor, a big guard who often plays the four for Austin Peay. He finished fourth in the conference in scoring and third in rebounding, making him a threat in a variety of ways. If you like gaudy stat lines, look no further than his 42 points, 18 rebound performance against Morehead State for what Taylor is capable of. The Governors have a tough road to the bid, but with Terry leading them, they have a shot.
My All Conference Teams
First Team
G: Ja Morant, Murray State
G: Terry Taylor, Austin Peay
F: Nick Mayo, Eastern Kentucky
F: Dylan Windler, Belmont
F: Jason Burnell, Jacksonville State
Second Team
G: Kevin McClain, Belmont
G: Jr. Clay, Tennessee Tech
G: Shaq Buchanan, Murray State
F: Lamontray Harris, Morehead State
F: Nick Muszynski, Belmont
My Pick: Belmont over Murray State
As much as I love Ja Morant and would love to see him in the NCAA Tournament, I don't think we will. Simply put, Belmont has better players than the Racers, and paired with one of the best coaches in the nation, they should have the advantage in this one. They haven't lost a game since January 17, and handily beat Murray State on the road during that stretch. I don't know what Murray State's answer to either Windler or Nick Muszynski is, and short of Morant going wild, which he is very capable of doing, I think Belmont goes dancing.
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