As we enter into March, I come to you with a comprehensive preview of all 68 teams. I feel that all too often, tournament previews solely focus on the first round games, and how those teams match up, since those are the games we know. However, most of the toughest games in your bracket come in the later rounds, where your intel on teams is more limited. And so, I present a breakdown of every team in the tournament, featuring a summary of their season, their strengths and weaknesses, and then my thoughts. If you find it helpful, please share it with your friends, and I hope you find this helpful and enjoy it.
The Sooners were a major story last year because of Trae Young, and while he has moved onto the NBA, they were back and had another good year, albeit a much different one. They took down Wofford, Florida, and Creighton, among others, in the non-conference. They went 11-1 in non-conference play, but really struggled in the Big 12, going 7-11 and couldn’t find consistency, and dropped their last two games of the season.
- Duke (24-3, 12-2)
Coach: Mike Krzyzewski
How They Got Here
The Blue Devils made headlines in the offseason with their recruiting class, headlined by the number one player in the class per 247Sports in RJ Barrett, number 2 in Cam Reddish, and viral sensation Zion Williamson, who also happened to be the fifth ranked player. They then came out and steamrolled Kentucky on opening night. They haven’t looked back since, with Williamson and Barrett establishing themselves as some of the top players in the nation, and the Blue Devils topping the ACC. They had a few injuries throughout the year that led to their losses against Syracuse (without Reddish and point guard Tre Jones) Virginia Tech, and North Carolina (Williamson was hurt for the latter), but when they have been at full strength, they have been nearly impossible to stop. Just ask the teams who had the misfortune of playing them in the ACC Tournament, as they steamrolled the competition en route to the ACC Title.
Strengths
- In case you haven’t heard, Duke has some talent. Their recruiting class is being compared to the Fab 5 and they have two players in Zion Williamson and RJ Barrett that are probably going to be First Team All-Americans. Zion is in my mind the best player in the country and the no doubt #1 overall pick, and RJ is probably #2. Just some numbers for you: Zion is averaging 22.1 points, 8.9 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 2.2 steals, and 1.8 blocks per game while doing something else you didn’t know was possible every game. RJ is putting up a casual 22.9/7.5/4.1. Throw in Cam Reddish as a potential top 5 pick and Tre Jones as someone who will also go in the first round, and the talent is clear. That doesn’t factor in Alex O’ Connell, a former top 100 recruit, Marques Bolden, a former McDonald’s All American, and Javin DeLaurier, a former top 40 recruit, as well as Jack White and Jordan Goldwire, who are both solid bench pieces that give key contributions in limited minutes. In my mind, this is the best team in the country, and they play like it.
- It is nearly impossible to stop this team from doing what they want. As I mentioned earlier, Zion and RJ can just overwhelm you with their superior skill level, and they use that to get into the lane and make layups seemingly at will. It doesn’t really matter who you put on them or what defense you throw at them, those two are flat out just going to beat you to the rim and they don’t miss very often. This entire team also puts in work on the offensive glass, getting 13.4 a game. It certainly doesn’t hurt that their shooting guard is the 6’7” Barrett, and so that creates a lot of matchup problems given that no one really has the size to guard him, Reddish, and Williamson. I really just don’t know how you can stop them on the offensive end outside of packing the lane and even then that might not work.
- At least the freshmen will be bad on defense, right? Unfortunately for anyone Duke will be matched up against, they are not, which I think is what has impressed me the most about the Blue Devils this season. Zion is the presumed number one pick, and yet he plays just as hard as anyone in the nation. RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish have a lot of positional size and length which makes them good defenders, and Tre Jones is a top 3 defensive point guard in the nation. He will pick up full court and hound opposing point guards, which makes him a nightmare for his opposition. Marques Bolden and Javin DeLaurier are both good rim protectors and can guard pretty well in space. They absolutely thrive on their athleticism on that end, and it results in a lot of turnovers. They have the highest steal percentage and third highest block percentage in the nation, and that allows them to get out in transition where they are dominant. On top of that, they have one of the best effective field goal percentages against, and a lot of that comes from them defending the three point line really well. They have the ability to dominate on this end, which should be terrifying for opposing coaches.
Weaknesses
- If there is one thing that can hold the Blue Devils back, it’s their outside shooting. They have struggled to make their shots from deep, sitting at only 30.2% from three on the year., which is 338th in the nation. That really comes down to their personnel, as they don’t have any real elite shooters. Jack White looked like that guy up until January 14 against Syracuse, but he hasn’t made a three since then. Alex O’ Connell and Cam Reddish have some really good looking strokes and they have the potential to be really good shooters, but it hasn’t happened just yet as they are inconsistent from deep. The same can be said for RJ Barrett, Tre Jones and Zion Williamson, who are all shooting poorly from three, and none of their bigs are shooters. It hasn’t really hurt them yet, but we’ve seen multiple instances of teams packing the lane in order to dissuade the Blue Devils from driving and forcing them into outside shots, where they struggle. It may not matter at the end of the day, but it could be a problem against the right defensive schemes.
- I would also be remiss if I didn’t mention the fact that this is a very young team. They are 347 of out 353 in experience according to KenPom, so they obviously lack the veterans of some of the other teams. I personally don’t care about this for a few reasons. One, their starting center is a junior, and they have two other juniors and a sophomore in their rotation. Their coach has also been around the block a few times, and he’s led groups of talented freshmen to deep tournament runs in the past. Finally, if you are going to bet against Zion Williamson, RJ Barrett, Cam Reddish, and Tre Jones just because they are freshmen, I think you are an idiot. They are ridiculously talented players and they have been running through the ACC, one of the best conferences in basketball, so I’m not too worried about the inexperience of this team.
My Thoughts
In my opinion, this is the most talented team in the nation. Zion Williamson would be my pick for National Player of the Year, and both he and RJ Barrett would be on my All-American ballot. Throw in Reddish, Jones, and Bolden, and that is probably the best starting 5 in the nation. Their defense really is a difference maker, and their ability to create turnovers is so massive. They are so explosive in the open court and because of their athletic advantage, it is impossible to stop them when they are playing in transition. I do think their shooting could come back to bite them since teams can afford to really help off of guys like Tre Jones, but for the most part, that hasn’t been a problem this season, so I expect them to make a deep run.
- Virginia (29-3, 16-2)
Coach: Tony Bennett
How They Got Here
The Cavaliers came into the year after a disappointing end to their season last year to say the least, infamously becoming the first one seed to ever lose to a sixteen seed. How did they respond? I’d say they did pretty well, going 28-2 on the season and 16-2 in the ACC, with their only two losses coming against Duke. They once again won the regular season title in the conference, and looked dominant on both ends of the floor. They fell to Florida State in the ACC Tournament, but they look ready to put their March demons behind them and compete for a national title.
Strengths
- Virginia has once again has one of the best defenses in the country. They utilize the Pack Line, which puts one man providing ball pressure and everything else “packing” the lane, and while many teams run this scheme or some variation, no one does it as well as the Cavaliers. Opposing teams only scoring 87.9 points per 100 possessions against Virginia, and they are shooting just 38% against the stout Virginia defense, and only 27.2% from three, lowest in the nation. Because there are so many bodies in the paint, they get a lot of rebounds and blocks, but they rarely foul, which is a rare combination and one of the reasons this defense is so elite. The one thing they don’t really do on the defensive end is force turnovers, but they don’t need to, since their opposition typically can’t score.
- Many people think that Virginia just have a good defense, and while that may have been true in the past, their offense is actually really good this year. They rarely have trouble scoring, getting 1.145 points per possession, fourth in the country, and a large part of that is their shooting. Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome are both knockdown shooters, shooting 46.3% and 39.7% from deep respectively, and while he doesn’t take a lot of threes, forward De’Andre Hunter makes 45.7% of his shots from behind the arc. As a team, they are making 40.9% of their shots from three point range, and with multiple capable shooters, the Hoos are tough to guard. Virginia also takes great care of the ball, turning it over on less than 15% of their possessions, which is eleventh best in the nation, and they do a very good job of finding the best shot, so their offense is incredible efficient, so while people will hate on the Cavaliers for their poor offense, that quite simply just isn’t true.
Weaknesses
- One thing that could hold Virginia back is their slow pace. While it is one of the reasons for their success, they control the tempo of basically every game they play by forcing teams to work hard in order to get a good look while taking a very long time on the offense, it can hurt the team. We saw it in their loss to UMBC when they couldn’t get back into the game because they play so slowly to much time had drained off the clock. This slow pace also forces less possessions, which means Virginia typically doesn’t create a ton of separation from teams and their opponents hang around for longer. You never want to give your opponents a better chance, and just because of their style, Virginia has given whoever they play a better shot.
- I need to bring up the history of Virginia in the tournament. They have a reputation for choking, and they were the first 1 seed to lose to the 16 seed in tournament history last season. I’m not at all concerned about the whole “Virginia can’t win in March” narrative is ridiculous. They lost to a higher seed in 2017, they made the Elite Eight in 2016, and the Sweet Sixteen in 2014. I also just generally think narrative are dumb. Everyone forgets that Jay Wright couldn’t win the national championship until he did. Twice. Mark Few never made the Final Four, and then he did. Duke was always a mortal lock for the Sweet Sixteen, then they were a lock to get upset, and now they are a lock to make the Sweet Sixteen again. I personally don’t buy into history aspect at all, but I need to mention it.
My Thoughts
I think I made it clear that I’m just evaluating this year’s Virginia team and paying no attention to any of the narratives that they can’t win in March. It’s dumb and is just something people who don’t really follow the sport say to justify their picks. This team is much better offensively than any Virginia team I remember, and they have a lottery pick in De’Andre Hunter leading the way. I don’t know if Kyle Guy and Ty Jerome have ever missed open threes, and I doubt they start in March. Add in a killer defense and solid front court players, and you’ve got a legit national title contender.
- North Carolina (27-6, 16-2)
Coach: Roy Williams
How They Got Here
The Tar Heels hit a few road bumps early in the year, losing to Texas and Kentucky on neutral courts, and getting dominated by Michigan and Louisville, but soon enough, all was right in Chapel Hill. Roy Williams oversaw another highly successful season powered by a great offense, and that was enough to beat Gonzaga as well as take down rival Duke twice, and tied for the ACC title at 16-2. They ended up falling in the ACC semifinals to their hated rivals, but they enter the tournament as one of the favorites.
Strengths
- The Tar Heels have one of the best offenses in the nation. They score 120 points per 100 possessions, the seventh best rate in the country, and they are very difficult to stop. They like to push the pace, ranking fifth in the nation in average possessions per game with 74.3, and they run the Carolina Break to great effect. Their quick pace allows players like point guard Coby White and forward Nassir Little to thrive while getting easy buckets for big men Luke Maye and Garrison Brooks. They are also very good in the half court, and Maye and Cameron Johnson are matchup nightmares because of the size, mobility, and shooting ability. Johnson has been one of the best shooters in the nation this year, making 46.5% of his shots from three, and Maye, White, and Kenny Williams are all threats from behind the arc. Playing North Carolina is very much a case of picking how you want them to beat you, as when you take away one thing on the offensive end they always seem to have an answer.
- The Tar Heels typically play two bigs on the floor in Luke Maye and Garrison Brooks, and as such, they are an excellent rebounding team. They lead the nation with 43.8 rebounds a game, and they have a ton of size with those two and Cameron Johnson, who is 6’9”, or Nassir Little, at 6’7” and great length, on the floor at the same time along with 6’5” point guard Coby White. This not only helps on the boards but also the defensive end, as their size and length helps them defensively. They probably won’t face a team that can out rebound them in March, so they’ll have a tremendous advantage on the glass.
Weaknesses
- North Carolina isn’t great on the defensive end. They have great length and size, but when you actually watch the team, this isn’t a team that really gets stops when they need to. Most of their players just aren’t great athletes and guys like Luke Maye and Cameron Johnson struggle against more athletic players. Nassir Little is still very unpolished on that end and tends to struggle off the ball and the same can be said for Coby White. Kenny Williams is the best defender in the rotation, but one player doesn’t make a huge difference for the team.
My Thoughts
Honestly, I have grown to really, really like this North Carolina team. I think Coby White is a guy who is going to blow up in the tournament with some big time performances, which he has consistently proven he is capable of. I also really like Cam Johnson and Luke Maye, but not as primary creators which they’ve been asked to be at times. They are best as a second option, and with White going bonkers, they can play that role. As for Nassir Little, I’ve come off the idea he’s part of their best five. While they play well with him on the floor, I just think Garrison Brooks is better at what they need right now. This is for sure a title contender.
- Gonzaga (30-3, 16-0)
Coach: Mark Few
How They Got Here
The Zags were dominant this year, especially in conference play. They took down Duke, Washington, and Creighton, among others, during non-conference play, and only took losses to Tennessee and North Carolina. They then laughed in the face of every other school in the WCC during the regular season, going 16-0, although they fell in the conference title game to Saint Mary’s.
Strengths
- For starters, this is the best offense in the country, both by the numbers and the eye test. Per KenPom, they have an adjusted offensive efficiency of 125.1, which for reference, is 1.5 better than the next closest team, Virginia. They shoot 53.4% from the field, best in the country, and 36.7% from three, and they have multiple players who stack up to any in the country. The front court pairing of Rui Hachimura and Brandon Clarke is, in my mind, the best in the nation, and they have the stats to prove it. Rui is averaging 20.1 points per game and 6.6 rebounds, all while shooting 60.9% from the floor and 46.9% from three. He is pretty clearly an All American. Clarke gets a bit lost behind him, but he’s been every bit as good, scoring 16.5 points, grabbing 8.4 boards, and shooting 69.3% from the floor. Y’know, pretty decent stats. Both are athletic enough to drive past their man from the perimeter, strong enough to bully smaller defenders in the post, and good enough shooters that teams have to respect them, especially in the high post. They also have Zach Norvell, one of the best and most clutch shooters in the country. He is making 37.7% of his three and scoring 15.3 points a game this season, and there are few players I would rather have taking a big shot. Finally, Josh Perkins has developed into one of the top point guards in the nation. He is averaging 6.4 assists per game, thirteenth in the country, compared to 1.9 turnovers, and the senior is one of the best players in the nation at making reads in pick and rolls. This is a high powered offense that can compete with any team in the country.
- The Zags are pretty good defensively as well. They are fourteenth in KenPom for adjusted defensive efficiency, and opponents haven’t had a lot of success shooting the ball against them. They’ve held opposing teams to shooting 30.9% from behind the arc and just 38.9% overall. The major reason why is Brandon Clarke, who might be the best defender in the nation. He often plays center for the Bulldogs, but he has quick enough feet to match up with a guard. Also, he is an incredible shot blocker, ranking third in the nation with 3.1 rejections per game. While they can struggle to get stops at time, they have the personnel capable of being an elite defensive unit and more often than not they play very well on that end.
Weaknesses
- You really have to nitpick if you want to find weaknesses with the Zags. You could say that they play in a weak conference, and that has inflated their stats. While their is some validity to that, I would point to the fact that they are beating conference opponents by an average of 24.7 points per game, even after losing by 13 in the conference championship game. They aren’t just beating weaker opposition, they are massacuring them. They also beat Duke, who is pretty good at basketball, along with other high major teams, so they have proven themselves against top competition. The one area many have proposed as a weakness is Josh Perkins, who has previously struggled with turnovers. I would once again direct them to the Duke game, where against ballhawking defender Tre Jones, he had just 2 turnovers. I think they are going to be more than fine and are as close to a perfect team as you can find.
My Thoughts
They might be my national title pick. I love everything about this team. Their offense is incredible, Brandon Clarke and Rui Hachimura are both All Americans, Josh Perkins might be the best pick and roll ball handler in the nation, Zach Norvell is a cold blooded scorer, Corey Kispert is a knockdown shooter and the perfect role player, and if they get Killian Tillie back and playing even half as well as he did last season, we’re looking at the best offense in the nation, no doubt. Even without him, they might have it. Throw in a good defense anchored by the best shot blocker in the country, and this team has national title written all over them. I also think their recent loss served as a wake up call and lit a fire under this team, so I fully expect them to roll through the first weekend. It’ll be hard to bet against Duke, but the more I see, the more I this team.
- Tennessee (29-5, 15-3)
Coach: Rick Barnes
How They Got Here
Following up a breakout season in which they won a share of the SEC title was always going to be difficult, but Tennessee did just that. They beat Louisville and Gonzaga during non-conference play before dominating the SEC, starting off 11-0, and going 15-3 overall, including two wins over Kentucky. They also made it to the SEC Championship game, where they fell to Auburn, but the point remains that this is one of the top teams in the nation.
Strengths
- The Volunteers have one of the oldest teams in the nation, ranking 55th in KenPom’s experience rating, and all of their top six players are juniors or older, and the rest of the rotation are sophomores. While I typically don’t buy too much into experience or lack thereof, with Tennessee, you can clearly see that this team has played together a lot and they know the offense so well. Guys like Grant Williams know where to be on the court at all times, and they rarely make mistakes, as we see with their low turnover rate. We have also seen that experienced guards are key in March, and Tennessee certainly has that. This is also the same team that lost early to Loyola-Chicago, so they will probably be hungry and looking to prove that they are an elite team.
- Tennessee is one of the best offensive teams in the nation. They are third in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, and there is very little they don’t do well. They execute Rick Barnes’ scheme to perfection, and they constantly get good looks, especially layups. They shoot 55.7% from two point range, which shows how great they are at finding good looks. They also have one of the highest assist rates in the country, getting an assist on 60.9% of their made baskets. The Volunteers also get a lot of easy points at the foul line, shooting 76.7% on free throws. Finally, they don’t shoot a lot of threes, but they don’t have anyone who is really a bad shooter. Every member of their rotation except for Yves Pons shoots better than 30% from deep, and while they just shoot 36.2% from three as a team, that’s their biggest weakness on offense, so they are in good shape on that end.
Weaknesses
- The Volunteers have been very inconsistent defensively this season. It really is strange to see this team playing so poorly on that end, given that they finished sixth in defensive efficiency last season, but have dropped to to 34th this year. The skill level is still there, as we saw when they shut down Kentucky, but for long stretches of play, their defense just hasn’t been the same. I would be worried about them not bringing their A game against one of their first opponents, but if they are playing hard, it’s find to hard a weakness. Probably the lack of three point shooting, maybe the lack of a player who can go and take over the game, but this is a rock solid team that you can’t really go wrong with.
My Thoughts
Honestly, I was a bit worried about Tennessee. Then they boat raced Kentucky in Knoxville and finally looked like an elite team after struggling in the weeks prior. The main difference was obvious: their defense. When they are locked in, they’re incredible. But the fact that they weren’t playing their hardest for an extended period of time makes me a bit worried. Still, Jordan Bone has emerged as one of the best point guards in the country, and partnered with Grant Williams and Admiral Schofield, it’s hard to find a better team. Still, there is something about Tennessee that doesn’t sit right with me. They seem more like really good team than an elite team to me, so I think their ceiling is more Final Four than national title.
- Michigan State (28-6, 16-4)
Coach: Tom Izzo
How They Got Here
The road hasn’t always been easy for the Spartans. They lost to Kansas on the opening night of the season, and their wins over UCLA, Texas, and Florida ended up not being as good as they would have thought at the time. Things got more complicated when Joshua Langford went down injured, followed by Nick Ward and Kyle Ahrens, all key contributors. Still, Sparty rolled on, going 16-4 and earning the top seed in the Big Ten Tournament. They would take down in-state rival Michigan to complete a three game season sweep of the Wolverines in the final, winning the Big Ten title. The Sooners were a major story last year because of Trae Young, and while he has moved onto the NBA, they were back and had another good year, albeit a much different one. They took down Wofford, Florida, and Creighton, among others, in the non-conference. They went 11-1 in non-conference play, but really struggled in the Big 12, going 7-11 and couldn’t find consistency, and dropped their last two games of the season.
Strengths
- Cassius Winston has been an absolute force this season, playing like an All-American and almost willing the Spartans to victories at the moment. He’s averaging 18.9 points a game, top 75 in the country, which pairs nicely with his 7.6 assists a country, third in the nation. Not only are his stats on the year crazy, but he’s elevating his play, averaging 19.5 points and 8 assists over his last ten games, including helping them go on a run to the Big Ten Championship. He also bested Michigan’s defensive stopper Zavier Simpson three different times in that span, so it doesn’t matter who you put on him, Winston is going to dominate, and he should continue that in March.
- The Spartans’ defense has been very good all season long. No matter who is on the court, the defense has been very good all season and they can defend the best teams in the country. Their best area has been the two point defense, as the front court has been really good on that end of the floor. Xavier Tillman and Kenny Goins are very good defenders, and they are a large reason why Michigan State holds their opponents to 40.7% from inside the arc. Both of the bigs are mobile enough to guard on the perimeter as well as provide stout interior defense, which has led to massive success for their defense even as pieces change around them. Additionally, Matt McQuaid has quietly turned into one of the best defensive guards in the conference, and freshman Aaron Henry has held his own against Big Ten wings. Tom Izzo constantly has his guys playing hard, so the effort is always there defensively and that normally translates to results.
Weaknesses
- Unfortunately, this team has been absolutely killed by injuries. Joshua Lanford and Kyle Ahrens are all sidelined and having tw0 key rotation pieces down, including a starter and one of your leading scorers, is definitely not something you want heading into March. Add in a banged up Nick Ward and Cassius Winsto, and Coach Izzo has had to resort to playing a lot of freshmen who while talented, don’t quite seem ready to be competing at the highest level just yet. There is essentially a six man rotation at this point with other players being rotated in to give minor breaks, so Michigan State could have some very tired legs late in games and struggle to deal with foul trouble.
My Thoughts
I really liked Michigan State when they were healthy. The Cassius Winston-Joshua Langford-Nick Ward combo was lethal, and unfortunately, Langford and Ahrens are hurt and out for the season. I honestly just don’t think they have the talent without those two to make a deep run. Winston is absolutely brilliant and he’s the type of player who can win you a game or two, and Nick Ward is a load in the post, but when Xavier Tillman is your second best player, you’re not good enough to mount a title challenge. I think they max out in the Sweet Sixteen and quite honestly I wouldn’t be shocked if they lost in the first weekend.
- Kentucky (27-6, 15-3)
Coach: John Calipari
How They Got Here
Stop me if you’ve heard this before: John Calipari brings in a talented recruiting class, second best in the nation according to 247Sports, and after taking a little while to get used to each other, they go on to be very good. After getting blown out on opening night by Duke and losing to Seton Hall and Alabama, the Wildcats established themselves as an elite outfit. They took down North Carolina, Louisville, and Kansas, and went 15-3 in SEC play, beating Tennessee and sweeping Auburn. They fell to the Vols in the SEC Tournament semifinals, but they are still looking like a team that can appear in Minneapolis.
Strengths
- As usual, the Wildcats have a lot of talented players in a deep rotation. They have a nine man rotation which is full of five star recruits, and they have depth at every position. Ashton Hagans and Immanuel Quickley were both top 25 recruits coming into the season, and are more than capable of running the point for John Calipari who can also share the court, Jemarl Baker gives good minutes on the wing as a 3 and D player, and EJ Montgomery and Nick Richards offer something different in the front court who are also former top 20 recruits. There are a lot of options for Kentucky and they can withstand as a player getting into foul trouble or an injury in March.
- As with Duke, despite the Wildcats being young, they are a tough defensive team. They allow 90.8 points per 100 possessions, and John Calipari has done an excellent job getting all of his players to buy into their defensive identity. It all starts with Ashton Hagans, who creates havoc at the point of attack by pressuring the opposing point guard full court to great effect, as he averages 1.7 steals a game. On the wing, Tyler Herro and Keldon Johnson play with intensity and you don’t typically see from five star recruits, and you’re going to hear Herro called “deceptively athletic” because he is white but not a guy who just stands in the corner and shoots. There isn’t anything deceptive about PJ Washington’s athleticism, as the 6’8” forward has quick feet, strength, and a 7’2” wingspan that makes him a nightmare on the defensive end because of his ability to guard inside and out. Reid Travis has the strength to match up with any big, and Nick Richards is an elite level shot blocker. This defense has athleticism, creates turnovers, and most importantly, play hard, and no team will want to face them in March.
- I’ve touched on this briefly already, but the Wildcats have a lot of size and length. From 6’3” point guards Hagans and Immanuel Quickley, to wings Herro and Johnson, both over 6’5” with plus wingspans, Washington, who I talked about already, Reid Travis, one of the top rebounders in the country, and finally Nick Richards and EJ Montgomery, who both have wingspans of over 7 feet and are excellent shot blockers. It should come as no surprise that this team excels at getting rebounds, grabbing 38.4 a game, which is one of the best marks in the country. They are also very good at blocking shots, averaging 5.1 a game, and their imposing front line is nearly impossible to match up with.
Weaknesses
- If you were to find one area of weakness for the Wildcats, it would come on the offensive end. Although Kentucky has some very talented offensive players, Herro and Washington come to mind, the play at the point guard position has been a problem. Ashton Hagans is an excellent defender, who has a relentless motor and work ethic. However, he’s pretty limited offensively. He doesn’t have much of a jump shot, so defenders will sag off of him and go under threes, and he can’t do much about it. They will also overhelp into the paint off of him, which clogs things up for the other players on the court who excel at attacking the rim. He's not the best distributor either, although he’s by no means bad, but he isn’t fully there just yet at running an offense. Finally, he can play a bit out of control at times, which can lead to out of control shots and turnovers. His assist rate and turnover rate are very similar, which is not what you want out of your point guard. Because he is so vital on the defensive end, it’s often hard to take him off the floor, so that is one area opposing teams can exploit.
My Thoughts
This team has improved as much as any in the country this season, and I’m a big fan of them. PJ Washington was a beast in SEC play, and I think that continues during the tournament. Additionally, I think Tyler Herro and Keldon Johnson are great. They can both go get a bucket and they are really tough defenders. The issue with Hagans is a bit concerning, but Kentucky has been able to win with him on the floor throughout the season, so I’m not too worried. I really like Kentucky and think they could win it all.
- Michigan (28-6, 15-5)
Coach: John Beilein
How They Got Here
The Wolverines came into the year with high expectations after finishing as the National Runner Up, and started off the season brilliantly, not losing a game until the calendar flipped to 2019. In that stretch, they beat Villanova, North Carolina, and Purdue, and would go on to have a great year in the Big Ten, finishing 15-5 with a win over Wisconsin and a sweep of Maryland highlighting their resume. They couldn’t figure out Michigan State, not even when they met in the Big Ten Tournament final, but they look poised to make a deep run.
Strengths
- After years of watching the Wolverines run beautiful offense, they have had their success this season defensively. It can be argued they have the best defender at three different positions not just in the Big Ten but in the country with Zavier Simpson at the point, Charles Matthews on the wing, and Jon Teske at center. Simpson really sets the tone defensively, and he is averaging 1.4 steals a game, but that isn’t where his value comes in. Simpson has an ability to take his man completely out of the game, and he’s done it to some of the best players in the country, including Coby White, Carsen Edwards, and Anthony Cowan. On the wing, Matthews is one of the top defenders for his position, and people in the NBA have taken notice, as he is being put in the latter half of the first round by some experts, mostly thanks to his defense. He is very long and athletic, and he also gets a lot of turnovers, getting 1.1 steals a game. Teske is one of the top defensive big men in the nation, getting 2.1 blocks a game and 6.9 rebounds. What impresses me about him most is that he doesn’t chase blocks, instead playing really good defense and happening into blocks because of his great positioning. All of these piece have combined to make Michigan a top defense in the country, ranking second in defensive efficiency per KenPom and holding opponents to a 41.1% shooting percentage.
- The reason that defense has been so good is assistant coach Luke Yaklich. He came in before last season, and the Wolverines have been elite since he joined. Their defensive system attempts to force teams into mid-range jump shots by not giving up open looks from three and contesting every layup, and it really works. Teams playing against Michigan take less threes than they do playing against all but one other team in the country, fun fact it’s Stanford, and when they do shoot, they rarely make them, shooting 28.9% from deep. That scheme has made Michigan an absolute force defensively, and they are no slouch offensively either thanks to John Beilein. He is known as one of the best offensive minds in the sports, and his offenses have propelled Michigan to a lot of their recent successes. They rank twentieth in offensive efficiency, and as always seems to never turn the ball over and get a lot of good shots.
Weaknesses
- The one problem Michigan has had this season is that they have struggled to execute the John Beilein system. It relies heavily on three point shooting, and this year’s Wolverine’s team has been streaky at best. Isaiah Livers has been shooting really well from deep, and Ignas Brazdeikis and Jordan Poole will make their open shots, but on the whole, their shooting hasn’t been great. They shoot 35% on the year, and they seem to miss a lot of the looks they had made in past seasons. If they can start to make shots, they will be just as good as the team that made the run in the tournament last season, but it doesn’t seem as if that will happen at the moment, so they have some offensive concerns at the moment.
My Thoughts
I’m a Michigan fan, but I really like this year’s iteration of the team. They have two of the best coaches in the nation on the same sideline, and it works. With Yaklich making them into an elite defensive team and Beilein being an offensive mastermind, I feel great about Michigan making a run. While I am worried about the shooting, last year’s team had similar problems but got hot in March, which Michigan has done the last few season. Zavier Simpson is a joy to watch, and as soon as you see him take a sky hook, you’ll be in love to. They have an overdose of swag with Jordan Poole and Ignas Brazdeikis on the wing, and I just really think this is a top team that should make the Elite Eight at the worst.
- Houston (31-3, 16-2)
Coach: Kelvin Sampson
How They Got Here
Despite losing superstar Rob Gray from last year’s team that lost in heartbreaking fashion to Michigan, the Cougars rebounded with one of the best season in the country. They were one of the last remaining undefeated teams, not losing until January, and they beat some very good teams like LSU and Utah State during non-conference play. They then rolled through the American, sweeping Cincinnati and beating UCF and Temple once each, winning the conference by two games. They then fell to the Bearcats in the final of the AAC Tournament, but they remain a top team.
Strengths
- Simply put, the Cougars are one of the top defensive teams in the country. They are holding their opponents to shooting 36.7% from the field this season, the lowest in the nation, and they defend the arc and the paint equally as well. Teams shoot just 27.6 % from three, and 43.1% on two pointers, both top five marks in the country. One of the reasons teams struggle from inside the arc is Houston does an excellent job of defending the paint, not letting their opponents to get an easy layup. They also will double the post frequently, which limits the easiness of shots, and they will then execute their rotations perfectly after the ball gets kicked out. They remind me a bit of Texas Tech in the way that every play is fully bought into playing defense hard every possession, and the results are obvious.
- Houston is legitimately really, really good at the 1-3. With Galen Robinson, Corey Davis Jr, Armani Brooks, and Dejon Jarreau, they have four high level players. Davis and Brooks are 3 and D wings, and some of the best in the country. Davis is the leading scorer on the team with 16.7 a game while making 38% of shots from deep, while Brooks scores a bit less, 13.6 PPG, but shoots it better, making 39.3% of threes. Robinson is another high level defender, he leads the team in steals with 1.2, and a willing passer, with 4.9 assists a game. Think Ricky Rubio, although he can score if he needs to. Finally, Jarreau is a UMass transfer and has been the sixth man for the Cougars this year. He is one of the best off the bench scorers in the country, and his 9 points a game don’t fully illustrate how good he is. He has great size for a guard at 6’5”, and he can seemingly get to the rim whenever he wants. I really like his game, and I think this entire backcourt/wing group is one of the best in the country.
Weaknesses
- For as good as Houston has been, and as talented as their backcourt is, they don’t have any elite players. Despite being one of the best teams in the country, they probably don’t have the first or even second best player in their own conference. They also lack the high level athleticism that they will have to face in the tournament. The backcourt is also small with Jarreau on the floor, with Robinson and Davis standing at 6’1” and Brooks at 6’3”. Finally, the front court doesn’t make much of an impact offensively. Nate Hinson is a pretty nice piece, but other than him, it’s a bunch of rebounding and defensive specialists, so don’t expect a lot of post production out of the Cougars.
My Thoughts
These guys are legit. They may not have a superstar like Rob Gray last year, but this is as complete a team as you’ll find. Every player knows their role and is completely bought in to doing what they need to. You rarely see a guy like Gresham try to be a scorer, which can happen on other teams. Their defense is formidable and Davis and Brooks are a great 1-2 punch on the wing. Don’t be surprised when Houston is in the Elite Eight and giving a team like Duke all they can handle.
- Texas Tech (26-6 14-4)
Coach: Chris Beard
How They Got Here
The story of the Red Raiders is now well documented: they lost six of their top eight scorers, and yet still had a very, very successful year. They only lost to Duke during non-conference play, and despite a stretch in late January where they lost three straight, still tied for the Big 12 regular season title. They beat Kansas, Kansas State, and Iowa State, and although they fell to West Virginia in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament, the Red Raiders look like they will be one of the challengers for a title.
Strengths
- If you like defense, you came to the right place. The Red Raiders have the best defensive efficiency in the country, and they do pretty much everything well on that side of the ball. They execute the defensive gameplan Chris Beard set out, forcing everything baseline where there is help, perfectly, and teams have struggled to break through it all season. On the year, opponents are making 36.8% of their total shots against the Red Raiders. Their opponents will often be forced to chuck up a late three, and they shoot 30.1% from behind the arc. When they can get a shot up from inside the arc, they don’t have a lot of success either, making 41.3% of their two pointers. Everyone on the team is a good defender, from tough guard Matt Mooney, to long wing Jarrett Culver, to shot blocking maestro Tariq Owens. The Red Raiders are actually one of the best shot blocking teams in the nation, swatting 4.9 a game, and they force turnovers at a high rate, with opponents coughing it up 23% of the time. Good luck scoring against this team, as everyone is fully bought in on the defensive end and plays with incredible effort and toughness on that end, making them arguably the best defense in the country.
- In most of the games they play, Texas Tech will have the best player on the court in Jarrett Culver. The sophomore stayed in Lubbock to play for the Red Raiders and he has since played his way into the top 10 of many NBA Draft boards. He leads the team in points at 18.5 a game, rebounds at 6.3 and assists with 3.6, all of which are top 10 in the Big 12 as well. He can make threes, and his 32.3% mark from behind the arc is a big misleading and I think he is much better than that mark, as well as go past his man with relative ease. His length is an asset on both ends, allowing him to both finish around the rim and create deflections and get steals defensively. He is one of my favorite players in the country, and he can take over any game he plays in and win it for the Red Raiders, which is a huge advantage in March.
- Texas Tech has quietly become a really good shooting team this season. They are making 36.6% of their threes on the year, but have gotten really hot down the stretch, and in their last nine games, they are shooting 42.6% from three. They have multiple threats from three in Culver, Matt Mooney, Kyler Edwards, Brandone Francis, and Deshawn Corprew. However, their best shooter is Davide Moretti, who is making 47.8% of attempts from three point range on the year, and has gotten NBA Jam hot down the stretch, spurring on the rest of that team. During that same nine game stretch, Moretti made 47.6% of his threes, and he is one of the least heralded players in the country who has quietly been very good and very important for the Red Raiders offense.
Weaknesses
- The Red Raiders’ ceiling is impacted by their offense. Their defense is legit and will be a constant throughout the tournament, but on the other side of the ball, they can be very up and down. When they are making threes, they look great and can beat just about any team in the nation. However, the shots don’t always fall, and when they don’t things get ugly for Texas Tech. It should come as no surprise that in their losses, they are 33-118 on threes, or 28%. Even during their recent success while shooting the ball, they struggled in one game, only beating Big 12 bottom dweller Oklahoma State 84-80 in overtime and lost to West Virginia./ If they remain locked in on offense and are making shots, they are going to go on a deep run. If they get cold, they could be staring down an early exit.
My Thoughts
This is a team I love. They need to be discussed as a legitimate national title contender in my mind. If they don’t have the best defense in the country, it’s certainly top three. It is very difficult to score on this team and even though they don’t necessarily have the most talent or athleticism, they play as hard as any team in the country. On the other end of the floor, they have been a lot better recently which gives me a lot of hope. Jarrett Culver is a lottery pick, and he has the ability to take over a game that very few players have. Plus, they have come on really strong down the stretch shooting the ball as a team, and I think it’s legit. They are a team I think will make a really deep run.
- LSU (26-6, 16-2)
Coach: Will Wade/Tony Benford
How They Got Here
The Tigers had a wild ride this season, as despite losing to Florida State, Oklahoma State, and Houston in non-conference play, they went on to win the SEC regular season title, going 16-2 with wins over Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi State, and Auburn during the regular season. Then, late in the season, head coach Will Wade got suspended for an alleged payment to recruit Javonte Smart. They’ve gone 1-1 without him, including a loss in their first SEC Tournament game, so things are going great for the Tigers at the moment.
Strengths
- The Tigers are a dynamic offensive force, doing pretty much everything well on that end of the floor. They rank tenth in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency, and they have a lot of very talented offensive players, led by point guard Tremont Waters. He is a playmaking force, creating for himself and others. He leads the team in points per game at 15.1 and assists at 5.9, which is 22nd nationally. He is joined in the backcourt by Skylar Mays, who is second on the team in scoring, and those two along with wing Javonte Smart can create their own shot whenever they want. They also have big man Naz Reid, a five star recruit this season who is scoring 13.7 points a game while leading the team at 7.1 rebounds. He is able to shoot it from the perimeter and work on the inside, and he is actually the best shooter on the team. That is an area where the Tigers struggle, as they don’t shoot it well from behind the arc, but it doesn’t matter because of how well they attack the basket and play in transition.
- Speaking of transition, LSU gets out there early and often, as they do an excellent job of creating turnovers on the defensive end. They are eighth in the nation in steals with 9.1 a game, and a lot of that is led by Waters, who is second in the country getting 3 a game. Waters is also a star in transition where his shiftiness, vision, and playmaking ability make him tough to stop, and with athletes like Smart and Marlon Taylor, the Tigers are excellent on the break. They play at one of the fastest paces in the country, so they know exactly what they are doing and how to win.
Weaknesses
- The one thing holding LSU back is one of those intangible things that is tough to put numbers on. They just aren’t very consistent, and it’s showed up in some of their results. They lost a game to Big 12 bottom dweller Oklahoma State, needed overtime to beat Missouri, and lost at home to Arkansas. I think there are a few reasons for this. The first is that while Tremont Waters is a great passer, he does turn the ball over more than you’d like, doing it 3.6 times a game, and the Tigers cough it up 13.2 times as a team. They also have some problems getting consistent effort from some of their players. Naz Reid is immensely talented, but there have been concerns about his motor going back to high school, and he has a tendency to drift in and out of games. This is a problem team wide, as they often play to the level of their opposition, and their effort level varies game to game. You can see it in their rebounding numbers, as despite the talent they have on the boards, they have some problems giving up offensive rebounds. If they are locked in, their ceiling is up there with every team in the country, but they don’t play at that ceiling often enough.
My Thoughts
As of writing, it looks like Will Wade will not be coaching in March. Not having your coach from your first 30 games when your season is on the line is going to have an impact, especially on a team like LSU. Still, this is a very talented group and I think they’re really good. I honestly could see them making the Final Four since their offense is just so good, although inconsistency and do or die games tend to not mix well. This is the type of team that I could see going down early in a game and they immediately start taking bad shots and just never recover. But if they’re hot, watch out, because they are lowkey a team that could win it all.
- Purdue (23-9, 16-4)
Coach: Matt Painter
How They Got Here
The Boilermakers had a rough start to the year, opening 6-5 with losses to teams like Texas and Notre Dame that didn’t look great early on. They then kicked into high gear, tying for the Big Ten regular season title and beat Maryland, Wisconsin and Michigan State en route to a very successful season. They ended with a whimper, losing twice to Minnesota in their final three games, including the opening game of the Big Ten Tournament.
Strengths
- The Boilermakers are a very good team, and they are led by a very good player. Carsen Edwards is one of the top scorers in the entire country, averaging 23 points a game, good for twelfth in the nation. He’s posted over 30 points five different times, and posted 40 against Texas. Because of that, the offense is one of the best in the nation. They ranked fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they do an excellent job on the offensive end. They rarely turn the ball over and crash the offensive glass hard, which allows them to get a lot of easy buckets. They also shoot the ball well from behind the arc, making 36.4% of their shots from behind the arc, and were the best shooting team in Big Ten play, making 36.3% of their threes. This is largely from Edwards and his backcourt mate Ryan Cline, a sharpshooter making 41.8% of his threes on the season. They will have one of the top offenses in the tournament, and should be able to compete with just about anyone.
- Purdue is also rock solid on the defensive end. They aren’t the best team in the nation on that end or anything like that, but they are certainly above average. They come in at 32 in defensive efficiency, and you won’t get an easy bucket against them. With 7’3” Matt Haarms anchoring the defense, he has the tenth highest block percentage in the nation, they protect the paint well, and Nojel Eastern and Aaron Wheeler are both stoppers on the defensive end. Teams average 18.6 seconds per possession against their defense, one of the slowest paces in the country, showing just how effective their defense is.
Weaknesses
- The biggest weakness for Purdue is also on the offensive end. They don’t have a reliable second option behind Edwards. The only other player scoring in double digits is Cline, at 11.9, and he’s really just a spot up shooter. This can really be seen in regards to Edwards. In the aforementioned Texas game, yes he scored 40, but also took 26 shots and the team scored just 68 total points. There are times when Edwards clearly has no faith in his teammates and takes it upon himself to do everything for their offense, and I don’t think they will win many games in March when Edwards is just jacking up shots.They will need someone else from the supporting cast to step forwards as a reliable second option if they want to make a run.
My Thoughts
There are few teams I have been more wrong about this season than Purdue. Throughout the non-conference play, I was leading a charge against the Boilermakers, saying they only had one good player and they couldn’t beat good teams. I was wrong, and they were very good throughout Big Ten play. I have now learned my lesson, and will be backing this team to make a run…… is what a rational person would say. Instead, I’m pulling a TJ Miller and doubling down on my take. I just don’t see it, I really don’t. I just can’t get past the fact that they don’t have anyone I trust behind Carsen Edwards, and he has a tendency to turn into a pure chucker to get his team out of holes, and it hurts the team. I like Nojel Eastern a lot defensively, but he is a zero on the other end, and Grady Eifert shouldn’t be starting or playing more than 10 minutes for a good team. I will die on my hill of Purdue hate, and I don’t think they make the second weekend.
- Kansas (25-9, 12-6)
Coach: Bill Self
How They Got Here
The Jayhawks season has to be viewed as a disappointment by their fans, not winning the Big 12 title for the first time since Agent Cody Banks 2: Destination London was in theaters. They started strong, beating Michigan State, Marquette, Tennessee, Wofford, and Villanova before losing their first game at Arizona State. They then got hit by an injury to Udoka Azubuike and Lagerald Vick leaving the team, and struggled to a 12-6 record in Big 12 play. They then made the final of the Big 12 final, where they fell to Iowa State.
Strengths
- Dedric Lawson is one of the best players in the country, and has largely carried Kansas this season. He led the Big 12 in scoring and rebounding this season at 19.1 and 10.3 respectively, and he is so difficult to guard. He can operate in the low or high post and on the perimeter, where he has a decent three point stroke and good ball handling abilities, so you never know what he is going to do. It isn’t uncommon to see him bringing the ball up in transition after grabbing a rebound, and he has excellent playmaking ability. When he’s locked in, he can flat out dominate games. He did it with a 30 and 14 game against Arizona State, 31 and 14 against TCU, and 29 and 15 against Iowa State. He can carry the Jayhawks through a game or two by himself, especially when the team doesn’t have a big man capable of guarding him.
- Kansas was considered a disappointment by many this season, but that doesn’t change the fact that this is a very talented basketball team. To go along with Lawson, they have multiple high profile recruits, including Quentin Grimes and Devon Dotson. Dotson has been very good all season, and Grimes has been improving exponentially throughout conference play, and has put together some of his best performances recently. Additionally, Ochai Agbaji has been better than anyone expected after losing his redshirt, and Mitch Lightfoot is your dad’s favorite player because he “plays the right way” and “does all the little things”. It’s trendy to hate on the Jayhawks this season, but when they are clicking, they are very good, and it shouldn’t be lost that they went 12-6 in the Big 12.
Weaknesses
- One big problem Kansas will encounter is their depth. The situation is so dire that Ochai Agbaji lost his redshirt midway through the year, David McCormack has become a starter after barely playing prior to February, and KJ Lawson and Charlie Moore are prominent rotation players. Kansas is without Udoka Azubuike and Lagerald Vick, two key pieces headed into the year, and they are currently having to rely on suboptimal options off the bench. Nothing against KJ and Moore, but they aren’t very good, and the fact that they have to play roughly 10 minutes a game isn’t ideal for Bill Self and his team. If Dedric Lawson gets into foul trouble, they are in massive trouble since he is so key to the offense and replacing him with Mitch Lightfoot is a massive drop off. The lack of bench options is something to worry about when playing two games in three days, especially with all the travel involved.
- While the ceiling of this team is high, they have often struggled to reach it. So much of their success depends on shooting from deep, and without Azubuike to suck in defenders for open perimeter jumpers and Vick, the best three point shooter on the team, Kansas is not guaranteed to make their shots from behind the arc, which creates a lot of spacing issues. All of their players are at their best when attacking the basket, so being forced into perimeter jumpers is detrimental for the team, and when defenders can collapse into the paint because Marcus Garrett can’t make a three, there is less space for guys like Lawson to operate. They need to hope they can make their shots, or else they could be in a lot of trouble.
My Thoughts
I came into this fully expecting to hate Kansas’ chances, but I don’t. They aren’t winning the title, but I think they are a second weekend team. Dedric Lawson is really good, and he’s going to win a game for the Jayhawks just by being the best player on the court. I really like Devon Dotson and Quentin Grimes has been improving recently, and I think he’s going to have a big tournament. This isn’t the team I expected coming into the year, but it’s still very good and very capable of winning games in March.
- Florida State (27-7, 13-5)
Coach: Leonard Hamilton
How They Got Here
The Seminoles made an Elite Eight run last season, and they have the same formula this year. They lost just one game in non-conference play, and after starting 1-4 in ACC play, they closed out the season out 14-2, only losing to North Carolina and Duke down the stretch, and they beat Syracuse, Louisville, Virginia, and Virginia Tech twice. They made the finals of the ACC Tournament, where they lost to the Blue Devils, and they are one of the hotter teams coming into March.
Strengths
- The Seminoles are one of the longest and most athletic teams in college basketball, and they thrive in the open court. The entire team is built around playing that style, and they have a fairly deep rotation, just throwing players with tons of physical gifts at you until you break. They’ve got 11 players averaging double digit minutes, and they have one player under 6’4” in the rotation, with that being Albany grad transfer point guard David Nichols. All of this has multiple effects. First off, all of their size makes them a potent rebounding team, ranking in the top 75 in the nation at 37.4 a game. They also do a good job of creating turnovers, which allows them to get into the open court where their players thrive. They get 7 steals a game, top 100 in the country, and get a turnover roughly one out of every five defensive possessions. This just sort of bleeds into my next point, so I’ll just get to that.
- The Seminoles are an elite defensive squad. Obviously, having the length and athleticism which they possess can only help things on the defensive end, and they really make the most of it. As I mentioned, they get a good amount steals, and that is just the beginning. Their perimeter defenders rarely allow penetration thanks to their size and speed, and when they do, the Noles have 6’10” Mfiondu Kabengele and 7’4” Christ Koumadje there to erase shots. They are sixtieth in the country with 4.3 blocks a game, and both big men are swatting 1.5 attempts a game. This leads to teams only shooting 46.2% from inside the arc against Florida State. You also might assume that since they are so great in the open court, teams can get easy buckets against Florida State since the tempo is fast. However, that isn’t the case, as opposing possessions are in the bottom 150 in the country in terms of tempo. All of this adds up to them possessing the ninth best adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation, a number which I think speaks for itself.
Weaknesses
- The weaknesses for this team pop up on the offensive end. For one, they struggle to shoot the ball. They are making just 33.6% of their threes on the year, and they can best be described as “streaky”. When I saw them play Syracuse, they went 11-22, from deep, so they clearly have the ability to shoot, and only broke it out to break my heart. At various points, Phil Cofer, MJ Walker, Terance Mann, PJ Savoy, Mfiondu Kabengele, and David Nichols have all shown an ability to make threes, but none have proven to be effective with large volume. Their biggest key for a deep run will be making shots from behind the arc, as without that dimension, they really struggle offensively.
- The other key will be limiting turnovers. When the player with the lowest turnover rate on the team in your center, Kabengele, that cannot be good. They have one true point guard on the roster in David Nichols, although he spent most of his career playing America East competition and has struggled to adjust to ACC play at time. They also use Trent Forest and Terance Mann as ballhandlers, although neither are really at their best running an offense and the team is turning the ball over 13.5 times a game. That is a problem and it could end up holding them back.
My Thoughts
I’m a big fan of this team. I just love how athletic they are. They match up well with every team because of their length and athleticism, and they are really good defensively and in the open court because of it. Their ability to make a deep run all depends on their shooting. If they can make some shots from deep, then watch out. Also, look out for Mfiondu Kabengele. The big man comes off the bench for some reason, but might be their best player, and is a legitimate stretch five. I don’t know why, but I have a feeling Florida State performs really well in March once again.
- Kansas State (25-8, 14-4)
Coach: Bruce Weber
How They Got Here
The Wildcats went to the Elite Eight last year, and they continued to win games this year, sharing the Big 12 title. They lost weird games to Tulsa and Texas A&M, but beat teams like Texas Tech and Kansas en route to their title. The biggest thing to look for will be the health of Dean Wade, as when he is off the court, the Wildcats really struggle, like they did when they lost to Iowa State in the Big 12 semifinals.
Strengths
- The Wildcats are on of the elite defensive teams in the country. They rank fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, allowing just 87.7 points per 100 possessions. They do pretty much everything well on that end thanks to a physical style of play. Their opponents are shooting 41.4% against them, and the Wildcats do a good job of limiting three pointers. While opponents shoot a lot of shots from behind the arc, they often come near the end of the shots clock after Kansas State got a stop, and because of that, they are making just 31.2% of threes. They also do a good job of forcing turnovers, averaging 7.6 steals a game. What is impressive about their defense is they mostly avoid fouls despite how physically they play, mostly because they don’t make dumb plays while challenging shots at the rim. They can certainly stop even the best offensive teams in their tracks and win games on that end.
- Barry Brown and Dean Wade are two of the best players in the Big 12 and one of the top one-two punches in the country. Brown is the leading scorer for the Wildcats at 14.9 points per game, and he is an excellent finisher around the rim. He has the speed and handle to blow by his man and the athleticism to contort his body and get a layup almost at will. Meanwhile, Wade is a power forward that might be the most important player on the team. When he went down with an injury earlier in the season, the Wildcats struggled. They run a lot of offense through him, and he is a very good passer. He is a threat at the top of the key because of his ability to shoot, making 41.8% of his threes, and he can also drive past a man who closes out to aggressively or just run the offense with good passes. He also leads the team in rebounds, and he creates a lot of problems for opposing teams. Look for these two to have big tournaments and lead the Wildcats offensively.
Weaknesses
- There isn’t really a way to sugarcoat it: this is a dreadful offensive team. Outside of Wade and Brown, they have one other player I’d even call average on that end in wing Xavier Sneed. They can’t really shoot the ball, making 33.6% of their threes on the season, and as a team shoot 43.1% from the floor. I also don’t like either one of the point guards, especially not Kamau Stokes, and Makol Mawien is basically a zero on the offensive end. They really do nothing well on this end of the court, and while Brown and Wade are very good players, they often struggle because defenses are so focused in on them. They really struggle to score, and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if their offense holds them back from making a deep run.
My Thoughts
Unlike their in-state rivals, I hate Kansas State. They can’t score, plain and simple. I don’t care how good your defense is, if you cannot put the ball in the basket, you aren’t winning games in March. An elite offense will beat an elite defense 9 times out of 10, and that’s assuming the latter is at least adequate offensively. This team is nowhere near that. They have 2 players that I trust to be able to get a bucket at any point in the game, and one of them, Dean Wade, is like doubtful to play with another injury. Without him, Kansas State is really bad, and if he’s less than 100%, they will be even worse than they were previously. There isn’t a team that I dislike more than Kansas State, and I do not forsee them winning a game.
- Virginia Tech (24-8, 12-6)
Coach: Buzz Williams
How They Got Here
After beating Washington and Purdue in non-conference play, the Hokies looked like one of the top teams in the country, and that continued to be the case with wins over Syracuse and North Carolina State in early ACC play. They then lost point guard Justin Robinson to injury, and struggled without him, but they still went 12-6 in ACC play, and beat Duke down the stretch.
Strengths
- There are few teams in the country that shoot the ball like the Hokies do. They make 39.4% of their threes on the season, eighth best in the country, and that has led to the eleventh best adjusted offensive efficiency rating in the country. Buzz Williams fully leaned into the deep shot this year, as they took 45% of their shots from behind the arc, and that makes a lot of sense, since seven of their eight players are deadeyes. The addition of Justin Robinson back from injury will be massive, as his penetration and passing abilities will open up so many open shots.You can’t leave anyone open, but Ty Outlaw is especially deadly, shooting 46% from three on the year. He always seems to find a way to get open and drain a crucial three, so teams have to be cognisant of where he is at all times.
- Virginia Tech tends to only be thought of as an elite offensive team, but they are also very good on the other end of the court. They rank 25th in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they play at a slow pace, doing a really good job of limiting opposing points per game. It’s pretty hard to identify what makes them so good on the defensive end if you just look at the numbers, but when you watch them, it’s pretty clear. They rotate as well as any team in the country, and just do an excellent job of keeping their man in front of them. They also rarely foul and give up easy buckets, making them even tougher to score against. It’s easy to get caught up in their unbelievable shooting, but their defense is just as good.
Weaknesses
- I went into why a slow pace is a detriment in the Virginia breakdown, but to recap: it creates less possessions which keeps games close and leaves them more susceptible to statistical anomaly performances. It won’t be the only reason they lose a game, but it is something to monitor.
- The Hokies lack size in a pretty noticeable way. They have only one true big in Kerry Blackshear, and while that isn’t a problem, plenty of teams play four out, there isn’t another player over 6’7” on the roster. When facing a team who plays two bigs, think Maryland or North Carolina, that could be a huge problem, or even a team with big wings like Marquette, as the Hauser brothers would hold a height advantage over whoever they had on them. They also only get 32.6 rebounds a game, which was dead last in the ACC. This is a real issue that could be hugely detrimental to the team, and is certainly something to look at for when making your picks.
My Thoughts
With Justin Robinson back, this is a different team. He unlocks a different dimension inside their offense with his passing, and I think the biggest beneficiary could be Nickeil Alexander-Walker. He started off really strong, but had to take on a lot of the primary ball handling duties after Robinson went down, and his scoring numbers dipped. I think he could be in line for a huge tournament since he can just focus on scoring now. I think they are looking like a Sweet Sixteen to Elite Eight team assuming Robinson is at full health, and could be a dark horse Final Four contender.
- Marquette (24-9, 12-6)
Coach: Steve Wojciechowski
How They Got Here
The Golden Eagles had a great season, winning their most games since 2013 when they made an Elite Eight run. Led by Markus Howard, they took down Louisville, Kansas State, Wisconsin, and Buffalo during non-conference play. They started 12-2 in Big East play, including wins over Seton Hall and Villanova, although they have struggled down the stretch. They lost their last four regular season games, and lost their second game in the Big East Tournament, so they are coming into the tournament cold.
Strengths
- If you like buckets, this is the team for you. Marquette lights it up, especially from behind the arc, and they have multiple offensive threats. Sacar Anim has been coming on strong of late, and unlike most of the other players on the team, he thrives at attacking the rim. Joining him on the wing on the Hauser brothers, Sam and Joey. They are both lethal shooters, each making over 40% of their threes, and they are incredibly important because their size allows them to play as a stretch four and create massive mismatches on the perimeter. However, the main attraction for the Golden Eagles comes in the form of point guard Markus Howard. If you’re unaware, he is one of the top scorers in the country, coming in at sixth in points per game at 25, and he is capable of scoring feats few others in the nation are. He has a bit of James Harden to his game with his stepback, shooting ability, the way he gets to the foul line, and his ball handling. He is obviously not as good as Harden, but he is the closest thing in all of college basketball. He’s scored 30+ points nine times this season, including two 45 point performances and a 53 point outburst against Creighton. Marquette tends to wins those games, so be on the lookout for him taking over in March.
- While most of the attention has been given to the offense, and rightfully so, the Golden Eagles have also been sneaky good defensively. Opponents have struggled to break down the defense, and it’s led to a stout defense, especially on the interior. Theo John gives them a shot blocking force on the inside, and teams are shooting 44.8% on two point attempts against the Golden Eagles. One reason their defense has been so good is the size of the team. While Howard is 5’10”, he’s a solid defender for his size. Other than him, every other player in the rotation is 6’3” or taller, and as I briefly alluded to earlier, the Hausers are both 6’8”, which allows them to guard fours. Most people will focus on the offense, but Marquette has really improved on the defensive end, which is why they are a threat in March.
Weaknesses
- Marquette has really struggled with turnovers this season. While Markus Howard is great at many things, he isn’t a natural facilitator or lead guard. He would be better as an off guard whose only duty was to score, but he is often tasked with handling the ball and defenses put a lot of pressure on him, and that leads to some turnovers. When he does get rid of it, he’ll typically be face guarded off the ball, and with other players who aren’t as good at creating their own offense, they also create turnovers. Marquette has Joseph Chartouny, a grad transfer point guard from Fordham, but he hasn’t been very good this season and so Howard has to handle the ball pretty much whenever he is on the court. If Chartouny can give them minutes in the tournament, this could be less of an issue, but I don’t see that happening, so they will have to deal with some turnover issues.
My Thoughts
The Golden Eagles have what it takes to go on a deep March run. The question is can they play at the level they need to in consecutive games and go on said run? To be honest, I think so. Markus Howard is a walking bucket, and he’s going to score over 30 at least once in the tournament. I think the biggest key is the Hauser brothers. When one of them can step up next to Howard and put up 15-20 and support him, Marquette has been great. When they both struggle, or Howard struggles, which is even worse, Marquette has a problem. I think that we can get the scoring necessary from the role players that can spur Marquette to the second weekend and beyond.
- Auburn (26-9, 11-7)
Coach: Bruce Pearl
How They Got Here
The Tigers surprised people with a great season last year, sharing the SEC title and winning a game in the tournament. They came back this year with a strong season, going 11-2 in non-conference play, and started off 7-7 in SEC play with no real good wins. They then got red hot, going 8-0 to close out the season, including winning four games to win the SEC Tournament, and beat Tennessee twice in that stretch. Few teams are hotter than the Tigers heading into March.
Strengths
- The strength of this team lies in its backcourt. Senior two guard Bryce Brown and junior point guard Jared Harper offer everything you want out of a backcourt poised to thrive in March. They both score over 15 points a game, and make shots from all three levels, including contested ones. Both are also over 38% shooting from deep, and they are have the experience, shot making prowess, and playmaking for themselves, and in Harper’s case, others, he averages a team high 5.7 assists, that star guards in March. Add in VCU transfer Samir Doughty, who is shooting 43.3% from three, and the offense is clearly potent. All three also play a huge role in Auburn ranking fifth in steals per game in the country at 9.3. Together, these three guards combine for 3.7 a game, and it creates havoc and easy opportunities in the open court. Look no further than the recent SEC Semifinal game against Florida for proof of their impact, as these three combined for 39 of the teams 65, led by 20 from Harper, including a dagger pull up three. Any success the Tigers have will be fueled by their guard play.
Weaknesses
- Despite the fact that Auburn is one of the best teams in the country at getting steals, they aren’t very good defensively on the whole. The only other thing they do well is block shots, ranking nineteenth in the nation with 4.8 a game. However, they can certainly get overaggressive on both fronts, and that lack of discipline often leads to an easy shot for the opponent, be it an open three after a defender misses the steal, teams shoot 35.6% from behind the arc against the,, a layup from a player being out of position after a dumb gamble, or an easy offensive rebound, of which they give up 10.9 a game, because the Auburn player chose to go for the block rather than box out. This is just a result of the way they play defense, prioritizing turnovers over sound fundamentals, and it can work very effectively, but against a team that really takes care of the ball well, Auburn could find themselves in a lot of trouble.
My Thoughts
This is a team you can’t let get hot. Unfortunately for their opponents, they are coming in hot, having just won the SEC Tournament, and all of their past eight games. When that backcourt is clicking, it is beautiful to watch, as Brown will make deep pull up threes while Harper dishes out beautiful assists. When it isn’t, the offense really struggles thanks to a lack of other consistent options that don’t work without their playmaking, and it can be tough to watch. I don’t that happens anytime soon, and I really like their ability to get to the Sweet Sixteen with a ceiling of a Final Four and a floor of a first round exit.
- Wisconsin (23-10, 14-6)
Coach: Greg Gard
How They Got Here
The Badgers were led by All American senior Ethan Happ all season, and they bounced back after missing the tournament last year. With wins over Oklahoma, North Carolina State, Michigan and Maryland on the season, they have a strong resume, and they had a very successful season in Big Ten play. They didn’t have a great run in the Big Ten tournament, but they still look like they will be a tough out.
Strengths
- You can’t talk about the Badgers without talking about Ethan Happ. The big man is probably a First Team All-American this year, and is one of the most dominant players in the sport. When you average 17.5 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 4.6 assists, you’re clearly very good, and Happ does a little bit of everything for the Badgers. They run almost all of their offense through him, and as you can tell from his assist numbers, he’s clearly a very good passer, making him a real threat in the high post. He is also deadly in the low post, with 4 reliable post moves that he can use at any point, and Happ does a great job of reading the defense and choosing the right one in every situation. And with his passing ability, doubling isn’t an option, as it will just lead to an open shot for someone else. He’s improved as a ball handler, occasionally running the break himself after a rebound, and his unique skill set makes him nearly impossible to stop.
- To go along with the stardom of Happ, Wisconsin has a top notch defense. They are third in adjusted defensive efficiency in the country, and one of the things they do best is protecting the paint. They play a variation of the pack line defense, and it works really well. They hold opponents to 43.7% from two point range, with their bigs contesting everything and their guards harassing ball handlers. The one thing they don’t do well is force turnovers, but that comes as a result of the system, and the defense should hold up through the tournament.
Weaknesses
- Ethan Happ is a liability late in games because he can’t consistently make a free throw. He shoots 46.5% of his shots from the line, which is obviously bad, and multiple team have employed intentionally fouling him late in games. As a team, they are also bad, making 64.9% of their foul shots, 330th in the nation. That is a huge issue, especially late in close games, and it could be the reason they don’t make a deep run.
- Who is the second option behind Ethan Happ on this team? I guess it’s D’Mitrik Trice, who is second on the team with 11.7 points a game, but both he and third leading scorer Brad Davison are at their best playing off of Happ as spot up shooters. They are good players, no doubt, but I don’t trust either one of them to go get their own bucket. And late in a game, when you can’t pass the ball to Ethan Happ because he’ll get fouled and probably miss at least one free throw, you need another guy who can score, and I don’t think they have that, which is why I’m really worried about them late in games.
My Thoughts
I’m out on Wisconsin. If you have to take your best player off the floor in late game situations because he can’t make a free throw, that’s a problem. Ethan Happ is incredible, and he is without a doubt an All American, probably first team. But he’s a legitimate liability at the end of games and everyone knows it. I also don’t know who else is going to score for this team. Like Brad Davison is fine and I like D'Mitrik Trice, but neither one of them strikes me as the type of player who is the second option on a good team. To me, their weaknesses outweigh more than their strengths, and that’s why I think they max out in the Sweet Sixteen this season, and might go earlier than that.
- Mississippi State (23-10, 10-8)
Coach: Ben Howland
How They Got Here
The Bulldogs made the tournament for the first time in ten years, and they had a great season going 12-1 in non-conference play. They took down Saint Mary’s, Clemson, Cincinnati, and Wofford, and had some big wins in SEC play as well, beating Florida, Auburn, and Mississippi. They lost to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament, capping off a successful year.
Strengths
- The Bulldogs are a really good offensive team. They come in at fourteenth in adjusted offensive efficiency, and there aren’t many things they don’t do well. Lamar Peters is an excellent facilitator and does a great job of setting is up his teammates as well as getting his own shots. Quinndary Weatherspoon is one of the least appreciated scorers in the country and he was second in the SEC in scoring at 18.2 points a game. Reggie Perry has emerged recently as a great low post option, and starting at the beginning of February, he is averaging 13 points a game and 8.8 rebounds. Add in Tyson Carter, Aric Holman, Robert Woodard, and Abdul Ado, all very solid players who do a lot of good things on the offensive end, and this is a potent offensive threat. The Bulldogs are making 37.8% of their threes, and crash the offensive glass, grabbing 11.7 boards on that end a game. They’ve got a really good shot at blitzing their way to a run.
Weaknesses
- There is one area where they struggle offensively, and that is turning the ball over. They cough it up 13.3 times a game, and point guard Lamar Peters, for all of his strengths distributing the ball, turns it over 3 times a game and has a loose handle, as does Weatherspoon. When they played against Auburn, a team who is excellent at forcing turnovers, they turned it over 18 times, and should they face a team who does that really well, they could really struggle.
- The Bulldogs can struggle defensively at times. They can play an over aggressive style of defense at times, and it often leads to easy buckets. Teams are lighting them up from three, making 35.3% of their threes, and 48.5% of their two point attempts. The Bulldogs also have a shot blocking front court that tries to do too much at times and are left out of position for rebounds, and they give up 10.2 a game. They’ve got some really solid defensive players who can defend really well when they are locked in, but that comes in spurts, and I am not all that comfortable projecting them to do a lot on that end.
My Thoughts
I really like the Bulldogs. They are just a really solid team with experience, especially in the backcourt. Partner that with Reggie Perry emerging as a strong front court option, and they have a really good, solid team. I don’t think they will be causing upset, but I don’t think they get upset either, and they seem like a team that won’t be picked because of the lack of media attention and they aren’t the sexy pick, but I think they win a game, maybe two.
- Villanova (25-9, 13-5)
Coach: Jay Wright
How They Got Here
The Wildcats are the reigning national champions, and despite losing many key players from that team, rebounded to win the Big East regular season title and tournament. They started off slow, notably losing to Furman and Penn, but rattled off 11 straight wins following a loss to Kansas, and have won five of their last six, including the three straight games in the Big East Tournament, and beating Marquette to start the run. They are a different team than they were at the beginning of the year, and I think people still have that image in their mind.
Strengths
- If you’ve paid any attention to college basketball over the past three years, then you’re very familiar with Jay Wright and Villanova. They have won two of the past three national championship, and that is largely because of the beautiful offensive system Wright runs. They have impeccable spacing, often playing with five out, and they always make the right play and get the best shot. This has excellent results, as they rank fourteenth in offensive efficiency per KenPom, as well as performing the best in Big East play. They play with an NBA style offense, taking lots of threes, more than half of their shots come from behind the arc, and they make a pretty good amount as well, shooting at 35.3% on the season. They also rarely turn the ball over, and as I mentioned, share it incredibly well, often passing up a good shot for a great one. Their offense has been the driving force behind their past two titles, and it will continue to power them as they look to make noise in March this season.
- The Wildcats don’t have many contributors remaining from the national title team last season, but those that do remain are very good. Phil Booth and Eric Paschall have been two of the best players in the Big East this season, and they have led Nova for the entire season. Starting with Paschall, the forward has been excellent, averaging 16.5 points a game and a team high 6.2 rebounds. The 6’8” senior is a multi-dimensional threat on offense, able to score out of post up, drives, and perimeter jumpers. He shoots 35.7% from behind the arc, and he makes some layups that don’t seems possible, but his body control and touch around the basket allow him to finish. As for Booth, the senior guard has been a part of both national championship teams and he’s stepped into the big shoes left behind by Jalen Brunson after last season. He leads the team with 18.6 points and 3.8 assists a game while also getting 3.9 rebounds. He has quietly been on the same level as his Big East compatriots Markus Howard and Myles Powell in terms of scoring guards, and he has willed Villanova to multiple victories with his scoring. These two are up there with the best duos in the sport, and they figure to keep up the impressive play in the tournament.
Weaknesses
- For as great as their offense is, they aren’t as good defensively. As unfair as it is to compare this year’s group to last season’s title winning team, it is inevitable, and when you look at the team last year, yes their offense was amazing, but their defense was also very good, and this team just isn’t at that level on the defensive end. Opponents have a 49/9% effective field goal percentage, and they have had no trouble scoring both from behind the arc and inside it. They have individuals like Dhamir Cosby-Roundtree and Jermaine Samuels who are solid defenders, but for the most part, the team isn’t at a level necessary for a deep run in March.
- As I mentioned, only Phil Booth and Eric Paschall were key contributors on last year’s title winning team, and Collin Gillespie is the only other player who saw any sort of real minutes last season that is back. The rest of the team is still very young and inexperienced, and hasn’t been on this sort of stage before. While I don’t think that is necessarily a problem for a team like Duke, with Nova, their players aren’t as good as Duke’s and their on court product suffers. Jay Wright’s offense is hard to get a handle of, especially as a freshman, and it isn’t uncommon to see a player make the wrong read or be out of position on defense. Additionally, they aren’t fully developed both as players and athletes, so the talent level really just isn’t there outside of Booth and Paschall. While I think they have guys who are going to be very, very good in time, I just don’t know if this is the year they make a deep run.
My Thoughts
This isn’t the same team as last season, let’s get that out of the way right now. There aren’t a lot of teams in my lifetime that can compare to last year’s iteration of the Wildcats, and this is certainly not one of them. That being said, I don’t hate Villanova this season. Honestly, they seem like they won’t have any surprises. They’ll beat who you expect them to beat and lose to who you expect them to lose to. That being said, there isn’t a team that will want to play them. When you shoot the ball like they do, and with the volume which they do, there is always the possibility of them getting hot and winning games they shouldn’t. Phil Booth is a great player and there are very few players I would rather give the ball to at the end of the game, so look for him to make a big shot at some point. I would say they are a safe bet to win at least one game, and I would pencil them into the Sweet Sixteen.
- Maryland (22-10, 13-7)
Coach: Mark Turgeon
How They Got Here
The Terrapins started off 16-3, with their losses coming to Virginia, Purdue, and Seton Hall, and they took down Wisconsin and Ohio State to start 7-1 in Big Ten play. However, they closed out the year 6-7, although they did beat Purdue, and they will need to pick it up after losing to Nebraska in their first Big Ten Tournament game.
Strengths
- Maryland will often play two big men on the court at the same time, often to great effect. Jalen Smith and Bruno Fernando will often share the front court, and they are very effective together. Smith has a little bit of a shooting touch from deep, which means they don’t have to play with two guys in the post, and Fernando has really improved as a passer and he’ll often find Smith or a perimeter player when he gets doubled. Because of those two, Maryland obviously dominates the glass, grabbing 39.2 a game, which is top 25 in the nation. They are also top 25 in blocks, coming in at 4.75 a game, and they also do a great job of challenging shots an intimidating opposing teams, who only shoot 44.7% inside the arc against the two behemoths. Both of the big men also average in double digits, and very few teams have the size necessary to guard both of them. They really complicate things for their opponents, and will be one of the best frontcourts in the tournament.
- One of the reasons that Maryland can play with two bigs is they typically have great spacing on the floor. They have multiple capable shooters, and they are making 35.3% of their shots from deep, and are improving, as they shot 36.3% during Big Ten play. Their entire backcourt can shoot, with junior point guard Anthony Cowan being the worst of their three starters, only making 34.4% from deep, although he is a much better true shooter than that and many of those are contested late in the shot clock. Eric Ayala and Aaron Wiggins, two freshmen, have both shown their ability to knock down shots, making 42.2% and 40.8% respectively from behind the arc. No one is confusing them with the Warriors or anything like that, but they provide enough of a threat that you can’t really double team Fernando or Smith in the post or you‘re giving up three points.
Weaknesses
- The Terps very rarely win the turnover battle. Anthony Cowan has a tendency to be sloppy with the ball and make poor decisions too often, turning it over 3 times a game. Fernando still isn’t the best with the ball in his hands, and he also turns it over at a high rate. As a team, Maryland coughs it up 13.1 times per contest, and on 19.8% of their possessions. Not only do they struggle on the offensive end, but they are one of the worst teams in the nation at forcing turnovers in America. They only get 4.3 steals a game, and they have the second lowest turnover percentage on the defensive end of the floor. They will need to close up the turnover margin to make a run.
- I have mentioned it with other teams, so I feel obligated to talk about the inexperience of Maryland. They are the fourth youngest team in the country per KenPom, and that inexperience could help explain some of the turnover issues. They play five freshmen, Jalen Smith, Eric Ayala, Aaron Wiggins, Serrell Smith, and Ricky Lindo, over 10 minutes a game, with two sophomores and a junior also in the rotation. Cowan and seldom used senior Ivan Bender are the only two players remaining from their last tournament appearance, so they aren’t as veteran laden of some other teams.
My Thoughts
I actually really like Maryland this season. I’m a big fan of their entire starting lineup, and Bruno Fernando has developed into a legitimate star big man who can be the centerpiece of an offense thanks to his improved passing ability. Given that he is surrounded by shooters, he gets the space he needs to operate and it makes Maryland hard to guard on the offensive end. I don’t think they are elite or anything, but I like them to get to the second weekend.
- Buffalo (31-3, 16-2)
Coach: Nate Oates
How They Got Here
The Bulls made noise by beating Arizona in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, and followed that up with an incredible season. They beat West Virginia and Syracuse in non-conference play, and only lost to Marquette before the MAC started. While they lost to Northern Illinois and Bowling Green in a stretch of four games, they then won 11 straight games, including the MAC Tournament, and they are playing some of their best basketball of the season right now.
Strengths
- The Bulls have one of the best offenses in the nation, ranking nineteenth in the nation. With players like CJ Massinburg and Nick Perkins, they have been a nightmare not just for MAC teams, but every team they have played, including West Virginia and Syracuse. They are elite from inside the arc, making 55.7% of their two point attempts, and they do a great job of converting at the rim. They also rarely turn the ball over, and that has allowed them to be very efficient offensively. Finally, they play at one of the fastest paces in the country, averaging roughly 73.7 possessions a game. That has led to them scoring 85 points per game, sixth best in the nation, and they are incredible in transition and it’s tough to stop them from getting out and running, which is why they are so good.
- On the other side of the ball, Buffalo is nearly as good. The Bulls had the 29th best defensive efficiency this season, and the best in the MAC. As I just mentioned, they play quickly, and one reason is the amount of turnovers they force. They get 7.3 steals per game, which is one of the best marks in the country, and opponents turn it over a total of 15.5 times a game. They also do a very good job of guarding the three point line, as their opponents make just 29.8% of their shots from deep. They also limit the amount of assists their opponents have, as teams playing Buffalo get assists on just 40.1% of their made shots, the second lowest mark in the country. If you’re turning the ball over, not making threes, and not moving the ball well, you probably aren’t going to win, and that’s what it’s like when you play against Buffalo.
Weaknesses
- If there is one area in which Buffalo struggles, it’s shooting the basketball. They have only made 33.5% of their threes this season, and there is one man to blame for that: Jeremy Harris. Despite having taken the most threes on the team, he shoots the lowest percentage of regulars at 25.6% on the year. That being said, we have seen him heat up from behind the arc and when he’s shooting well, the Bulls are incredibly dangerous. Just ask Toledo, who he made 6 threes against en route to scoring 34 points as Buffalo dropped 110 on the Rockets. The rest of the team are pretty solid from deep, although they don’t have any real knockdown guys. Still, if Harris isn’t shooting it well, the Bulls could be in trouble as it holds back their entire offense.
My Thoughts
I sure wouldn’t want to play this team. There’s a reason they only lost three times this year. Nate Oates is a rising star in the coaching industry, and he has a very talented group of players that are more than capable of making a run. CJ Massinburg is a stud, and he leads the charge for a dynamic Bulls offense. I’d be shocked if they don’t win at least one game, and a Sweet Sixteen or even Elite Eight appearance isn’t out of the question.
- Iowa State (23-11, 9-9)
Coach: Steve Prohm
How They Got Here
The Cyclones are one of the streakiest teams in the country, and they started red hot. They were 12-2 with a win over Kansas to start the year, and then began trading winning streaks with losing streaks, and closed out the regular season losing six of eight games. So of course, they then won the Big 12 Tournament, taking down Baylor, Kansas State, and Kansas to win the tournament.
Strengths
- The Cyclones are one of the best offensive teams in the nation. They are ninth in offensive efficiency, and they have a beautiful offense. It looks sort of like the offense that Villanova runs, and this team is kind of a mini-Villanova. They play with four wings, and they do everything well on that end. They shoot the ball very well, making 36.5% from three, and 55% from the inside the arc. They also rarely turn the ball over and they have multiple players who are very, very talented offensively. Marial Shayok, the Virginia transfer, has been excellent, and is second in the Big 12 in scoring this season at 18.6 points per game. They also have Nick Weiler-Babb at the point who has been a solid presence all year and Lindell Wigginton, a sophomore who has been coming off the bench but was great last season and is coming on strong down the stretch. Throw in freshmen Talen Horton-Tucker and Tyrese Haliburton who have been generating some NBA buzz, and big man Michael Jacobson, and all of them can put the ball in the basket both from behind the arc and at the rim. They can score with the best of them, and if they get going, they are tough to stop.
Weaknesses
- For as good as their offense is, they have never been able to get going consistently. For as much as I love watching them play, when their shots aren’t falling, it can be tough to watch. As I mentioned, they are limping into the tournament, and that comes off of a stretch where they won six of seven games. I don’t know why they are so hot and cold, but they really are, and their tournament hopes will depend on what sort of form they are in.
- The Cyclones also struggle on the defensive side of the ball. Despite having lots of athletes on the wing, they struggle to get stops and opposing teams often have no problems putting up points on Iowa State. Teams are shooting 33.8% from three on the season against this defense, and scoring 68.3 points a game. Cameron Lard is a solid rim protector, but he has struggled to stay on the court due to injuries as well as off the court issues. His absence has led to Iowa State struggling on the boards, only getting 35.3 rebounds a game. They’ve also been susceptible to giving up offensive rebounds, which is another avenue by which teams can get easy buckets. The offense has covered up some of their issues on this side of the ball, but they’ve risen to the forefront with the offense struggling.
My Thoughts
This is a team that will either make an Elite Eight run or lose in the first round. There is no in between for them. If they are shooting well, very few teams in the country can keep up with them. They have multiple players who are more than capable of getting hot and leading them on a run, but those same players could get ice cold and they bomb out in the first round. Neither would surprise me. I’d actually be more shocked if they had two solid games and lost on a last second shot or something. Their games are going to be decided by double digits win or lose. The x-factor for them could be Lindell Wigginton. He was a star as a freshman last season, but was hurt to start to season and started slowly. However, he is now second on the team in scoring with 13.5 a game, and over his last his, is at 15.3. If he can keep up that level, he’s going to propel them on a deep run, although I think a second round exit is the most likely outcome.
- Louisville (20-13, 10-8)
Coach: Chris Mack
How They Got Here
The Cardinals had a tough year last year, with the fallout of the Rick Pitino controversy really hurting the product on the court, but after hiring Chris Mack this offseason, they came back strong this year. They started off 16-5 and were 7-1 to start the season with wins over Michigan State, Seton Hall, and North Carolina. Things then fell apart late in the year, as thy went 4-8 to close out the year, with a win over Virginia Tech. They will need to right the ship in order to make a run in the tournament.
Strengths
- The Cardinals have one of the top defenses in the nation. They are seventeenth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they play a sort of hybrid pack line type defense. They aren’t forcing turnovers at a high rate, but they hold their opposition shooting from the field and do a really good job of contesting shots. Their opposition shoots 31.7% from behind the arc and their guards do a very good job of not just challenging shots from deep, but running them off of the three point line. Meanwhile, their defense inside the paint is excellent, with Stephen Enoch and Malik Williams do a very good job of deterring shots from those oncoming guards. They don’t create turnovers, but they do a good job of guarding their man and forcing their opponents into tough shots.
Weaknesses
- There is one good player on this team, and that’s Jordan Nwora. Ironically, he’s actually bad where the team thrives, on the defensive end, but he’s an offensive threat who is really the only scorer on the roster. Outside of him, the talent level on this team is pretty putrid. It is full of highly rated recruits who never really panned out, like Darius Perry and VJ King, guys who are more role players on an actually talented team but are key members of this one, Ryan McMahon is basically worse Matt McQuaid aka Alex O Connell, or transfer from a low major, like both its point guards Khwan Fore and Christian Cunningham. They also haven’t been playing well at all, going 4-8 down the stretch and not looking convincing at all.
My Thoughts
I’m fading Louisville hard. Simply put, I think they will only have like one of the top three or four players in any given first round matchup. Jordan Nwora is great, but outside of him, I just don’t see a lot to like about Louisville. Like they play alright defense and blew out North Carolina that one time. Their starting point guard was at Samford prior to this season, and he might be their second biggest offensive threat. I don’t see them winning a game in March.
- Nevada (29-4, 15-3)
Coach: Eric Musselman
How They Got Here
After two crazy comebacks in the tournament last season, Nevada returned a veteran group who looked ready to compete for a Final Four, and at times this season, they looked like they were living up to that hype. They beat Arizona State in the non-conference, and killed Utah State to open Mountain West play. They then had some very weird results, like losing to New Mexico by 27 and dropping 2 of 3 games against San Diego State, including losing in the conference semifinals.
Strengths
- This is a unique situation where some of my favorite things about Nevada have very little to do with what they actually do on the court. Nevada is led by players who transferred from other schools, and that led to them being one of the oldest teams in college basketball. They rank second in experience per KenPom at 2.68 years of play for the average player on their roster, and their entire starting lineup is in their fifth year old college. You may also remember the Martin twins and Jordan Caroline from last year’s team that made a Sweet Sixteen appearance, so these guys have been here before. They all have a good understanding of what is expected of them in Eric Musselman’s system, and they perform that role well. They are also one of the tallest teams in the country, with an average height of 78 inches, or 6’6”. Their entire starting lineup is 6’7” or taller, which gives them tremendous defensive versatility and allows them to switch pretty much everything. They are built like a team that can go on a deep run in March, and I very much think they can.
- The Wolf Pack are also one of the most skilled teams in the nation. They have a McDonald’s All-American and 5 star recruit in Jordan Brown averaging 10.3 minutes a game, and it isn’t because he’s not ready to play in college. Both Martin twins are very good, with Caleb being one of the best isolation scorers in the nation while Cody does a great job of handling the ball, playing defense, and running in transition. They also have Jordan Caroline, who is one of the best power forwards in the country, averaging 17.3 points and 9.6 rebounds a game. Add in Tre’Shawn Thurman, another player very similar to Caroline, Trey Porter, a center who is very good defensively and finishing around the rim, and Jazz Johnson, a knockdown shooter at 45.2% who can get hot in a second, and the talent level of this team is obvious. They also thrive in transition, where the athleticism of their players shines and guys like Cody Martin can really make plays. They are on pure talent alone one of the top teams in the country and can compete with every team in the nation.
Weaknesses
- Despite all of their talent, Nevada doesn’t really have the numbers to back it up. They have the 26th best offense and 33rd best defense in the country, and they don’t really have one thing that stands out as a huge pro. They tend to play to the level of their competition for large stretches of the game before just overwhelming their opponents with length and talent, and that has been enough to win games. They have often had Jekyll and Hyde performance in the same game, playing poorly in the first half before blitzing their opponent in the second. To me, the biggest reason for their struggles is their offense, or lack thereof. Musselman basically allows his players to just go out and play, and they don’t really run plays. That results in a lot of Caleb Martin jab steps and pull up threes, Jordan Carolina contested layups, and other bad offensive possessions. They have the ability to beat teams by 40, like they did against Colorado State, but when a team defends them well, they can just as easily lose by 27, like they did against New Mexico.
My Thoughts
They should be on upset alert. Sure, they have incredible amounts of talent, and they match up with every team in the nation from a pure talent perspective. But they have this fun habit of trailing at the half before mounting a comeback, and I think that could come back to bite them, especially if they have to play a well coached mid major. They also really struggle when they don’t control the tempo and the game is primarily played in the half court, because they don’t really run sets, and we’ve already seen that comeback to bite them in the ass against Utah State. I will say that I think they probably win a game or two just because they are that good, but I don’t feel great about them making any sort of run.
- Cincinnati (28-6, 14-4)
Coach: Mick Cronin
How They Got Here
After earning a 2 seed in last year’s tournament, the Bearcats lost a ton of talented players, and yet they still continued to be very good. They beat Mississippi in the non-conference, and killed UCLA, which doesn’t really mean much. They then had a great season in the American, loss to East Carolina notwithstanding, and finished second to Houston in the conference standings. They then won the American Tournament over Houston, leaving them hot entering March.
Strengths
- There isn’t a team that will outhustle or intimidate the Bearcats. Mick Cronin is in the top 5 of coaches I wouldn’t want to get into any sort of altercation with, and everyone on the team is right up there with Grant Williams, Admiral Schofield, and Luguentz Dort with the scariest players in the sport. They will outphysical just about every team in the country, and their physical play will really play up in the tournament, which comes at the end of 30 something games and on short rest. The grittiness and physicality of the Bearcats is one of those things that is kind of tough to define, but is really important for their team, and it really shows on the defensive end. They are up in your grill and refuse to get beat, which makes them really annoying to play against, and can frustrate even the best of players. In a shocking twist, teams really struggle to shoot the ball, especially from inside the arc, since it’s really hard to make a shot with Jarron Cumberland draped all over you, but somehow not fouling. This defense, and this mentality, are something that no team, not Duke, not NC Central, wants to face.
Weaknesses
- The defense is excellent, but the other end isn’t as pretty. They are very reliant on Jarron Cumberland, and he’s an excellent offensive player, but with Keith Williams being their next best scorer, that’s a problem. And let me be clear, their offense is not terrible by any means. Despite playing a slow pace, they average 71.8 points a game, and they have four players averaging over 8 points a game. Still, they just don’t really have any players outside of Cumberland that give you any confidence when they have the ball in their hands, and to me, the biggest problem is shooting. Cumberland makes 40% of his threes, and point guard Justin Jenifer knocks down 44.5%, although he’s not that good of a natural shooter, but outside of those two, no one shooters even remotely well, and they don’t take a ton of shots from deep. They typically rely on Cumberland to drag them to a victory, and nothing is more apparent than the AAC Championship over Houston, when he scored 33 to lead them to victory. The offense is a real worry for them to make a run.
My Thoughts
I would not want to play against Cincinnati at any point in the tournament. This late in the season, teams have tired legs and against the Bearcats, that won’t fly. They are one of the toughest teams in the nation and a game against them is basically a brawl. They will harass you defensively and wear you down, eventually winning the game. If their offense can get going, they will be tough to beat.
- Wofford (29-4, 18-0)
Coach: Mike Young
How They Got Here
Oh boy did the Terries have an incredible season. They only lost to North Carolina, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Mississippi State this year, and they beat South Carolina by 20 before rolling through the SoCon, not losing a game all season and boat racing second place UNC Greensboro in their two regular season games. They then won the tournament, completing the season sweep of the Spartans in the final, and they enter March on a 20 game winning streak and they haven’t lost in 2019.
Strengths
- There is only one thing to talk about here: the offense. If you somehow haven’t heard of Fletcher Magee by now, get acquainted. The senior is quite simply one of the best shooters the sport has even seen, currently sitting just two made threes off of the all time made three point record. If you have seen Kyle Guy take threes while like falling away and not being set, that’s like all Magee does. He’s shooting a casual 42.8% from behind the arc, and he can just go off at pretty much any time. He’s not the only shooter however, with Storm Murphy making 50.6% on the year, and Nathan Hoover shooting 46.1%. Jesus Christ, they can shoot it, making 41.6% on the team, second best in the nation. I don’t see how you can stop three shooters of that caliber, and throw in 44.8% from Tray Hollowell on roughly 90 attempts to make it four, and the offense is clearly very potent. They have the twelfth best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country, and they aren’t just inflated from SoCon play. This team is legit, and their offense will give any team problems
Weaknesses
- While they have a high major level offense, they don’t have high major level players, and I don’t mean that talent wise. Cameron Jackson and Fletcher Magee are the only guys I could see on a high major roster, and the rest of the team doesn’t have the size or athleticism of a team in the ACC or another high major league. Storm Murphy and Nathan Hoover, while great shooters, don’t really offer much defensively and in their high major losses, both struggled against the guards of their opponents. I really wonder if they will be able to play against a team with a team that has a lot of athleticism and bigger guards.
My Thoughts
I’m a big fan of the Terriers. Fletcher Magee is one of the best, if not the best, shooters in the nation, and they are just a great team shooting the basketball. They haven’t lost in a while, and although they might not have the best players you’ve ever seen, they are very dangerous on the offensive end. I think they’ll be a “sleeper” team on a lot of websites, but they shouldn’t be. They are just a threat, plain and simple, and I think they could be a Sweet Sixteen team.
- VCU (25-7, 16-2)
Coach: Mike Rhoades
How They Got Here
The Rams had a good season, throwing back to the Shaka Smart days, and they took down Temple, Hofstra, Texas, and Wichita State in non-conference play. After starting 4-2 in the Atlantic 10, they won their final 12 regular season games, establishing themselves as an at-large team. They then fell in their first A-10 Tournament game against Rhode Island when Marcus Evans, their leading scorer, got hurt, and they will need to overcome that loss to win some games.
Strengths
- The Rams have been known for one thing over their success, dating back to the Shaka Smart days: their defense. If you remember the days of the Havoc Press, this team will look very familiar. They employ a full court press that forces a ton of turnovers with traps as well as wearing down opponents, since they pick up the entire 94 feet. They are in the top 25 in steals with 8 a game, and opposing teams turn the ball over on 23.4% of possessions, ninth in the nation. Their aggressive defense doesn’t come at the expense of easy baskets, with teams really struggling to score against them throughout the year. Teams shoot 27.6% against them from three, third lowest in the country, and 38.4% from the field, sixth lowest. They do such a good job of maintaining pressure in the half court, and really get up into their man. They just make you very uncomfortable on the offensive end, and most teams aren’t built to withstand the press for 40 minutes, and like I mentioned with Cincinnati, the press will factor in against tired legs and really throw teams out of their rhythm, which is a huge advantage in the tournament.
Weaknesses
- For as good as their defense is, their offense is equally bad. They have been average on the offensive end all season, and they just took another big hit with Marcus Evans going down with injury in the A-10 Tournament and being questionable to return for the NCAA Tournament. The one thing they really struggle with is shooting from deep, making just 30.7% of their threes on the season, and only De'Riante Jenkins can even come close to being a decent shooter. Given the amount of ball screens they run, it is difficult to create things given how teams just go under everything and there is already next to no spacing. Plus, they turn the ball over too much, coughing it up 14 times a game. I don’t know if they will be able to make a deep run since they don’t have the offensive firepower necessary.
My Thoughts
A lot of this outlook depends on the health of Marcus Evans. If he can play and be at or near full strength, then VCU will be a problem. If not, their already weak offense won’t, in my opinion, have enough creation ability or a guy who can just go get a bucket whenever he wants. I do like the team on the whole, and I especially think their defense is good enough to win a game, but with Evans, I think they could go on another deep run.
- Syracuse (20-13, 10-8)
Coach: Jim Boeheim
How They Got Here
Following the admittance of one of the most promising young college basketball bloggers and a successful football season, the Orange were streaky as hell this season. They lost to Iowa and Oregon in their exempt event, beat Ohio State on the road, lost home games to Buffalo, Old Dominion, and Georgia Tech, but beat Duke on the road. They would trade wins and losses for most of ACC play, and finished 10-8 in the conference, and lost to Duke in the ACC Tournament after giving them a tough game for 30 minutes.
Strengths
- The patented 2-3 zone is a massive problem for teams. Jim Boeheim has been running it for years, and it has been wildly effective once again this year. Obviously, teams have to run different actions against the zone, and preparing for that is always tough, and it is much harder when you have a day or two to prepare, like in a tournament setting. Their opponents tend to take more threes and get more assists because iso penetration is much tougher, and if you aren’t prepared, you’ll get crushed. Plus, those long athletes are excellent at forcing turnovers, and are twentieth in both steals and blocks per game, with 8.3 and 4.8 respectively. The Orange are excellent defensively because of this, and the zone is such a huge reason behind their success.
- They have some very talented offensive players. Tyus Battle was banged up during the ACC Tournament, but he’ll be back for the tournament, and he can score with the best of them. He’s excellent in isolation and the mid-range, and makes a ton of tough shots. There is also Oshae Brissett, an athletic four man who can shoot while also taking his man off of the bounce, Elijah Hughes and Buddy Boeheim, knockdown shooters, and Frank Howard, their point guard who recently scored 28 points against Duke. Just about everyone on the court has the potential to go off for a big game, and they all have a shot to do that in March.
Weaknesses
- Unfortunately for Syracuse, they have trouble on both sides of the ball. Their issues are more glaring on the offensive side of the ball, where despite having a ton of talent, it never seems to be playing well at the same time. Whenever Battle is going, Hughes is missing shots. If Brissett is playing well, Battle is off. They have all of this talent, and yet it hasn’t clicked. They are incredibly streaky, and their biggest key is making threes. They make 33% from deep on the year, but when they are hitting shots, they are so tough to beat. But when they go cold, things get ugly. Just look at the loss to Georgia Tech, where they shot just 21.2% from deep. The inconsistency from deep will be something to monitor, but if they can play well for an extended period of time, they can go on a deep run.
- While the zone is very effective, it has two main weaknesses. First off, they struggle to get rebounds. They are often stuck in a spot away from the basket, and the Orange don’t really have a physically intimidating big man, with Paschal Chukwu and Marek Dolezaj falling down under a weak breeze, and stronger players can overpower them. They also give up a lot of threes. As I mentioned earlier, the zone gives up a lot of threes, and while many of them are contested, they have a tendency to give up open threes. They can also watch as teams like Virginia just light up the zone, and a team that can really shoot over the top of the zone can cause huge problems.
My Thoughts
Love the tournament potential of this team. I know that I’m a biased Syracuse fan and student, but the zone is a problem in the tournament. Their offense is can heat up and when they are making threes, they are tough to beat. A healthy Tyus Battle will be key, he missed the ACC Tournament, and Buddy Boeheim has been hot from deep recently, so I think their offense will good. This is a team that can knock off a one or two seed, and they have a lot of upset potential.
- Mississippi (20-12, 10-8)
Coach: Kermit Davis
How They Got Here
The Rebels have one of their best seasons in recent memory, and started very hot under new head coach Kermit Davis. They were 13-2 and 3-0 in the SEC to start the year, with wins over Baylor, Auburn, and Mississippi State. They actually swept the Tigers this year, and during SEC play, they became very streaky. They went 2-5 in their last 7 games, including dropping their first SEC Tournament game, so they will need to find that early season form for tournament play.
Strengths
- Here’s a live look at this team’s backcourt. With Devontae Shuler, Breein Tyree, and Terence Davis, few can match the scoring output of the Rebels. They combine for 43.5 points a game, and all shoot over 36.5% from deep. All three of them can score basically at will, and Tyree is on of the most fun players in the country. He is lightning quick with the ball in his hands, and he can fill it up. He leads the team in points with 18.2 per game, and my favorite part of Ole Miss is watching their guards throw up transition threes. They are just pure fun to watch, and I think this offense can make people fall in love with them.
Weaknesses
- Yeah everything that isn’t watching Breein Tyree cross someone up is pretty tough for Mississippi. They lack good bigs, and struggle on the glass. They only get 34.3 rebounds a game, and are susceptible on the defensive glass. They are also pretty bad defensively, with teams lighting up their defense, whether the Rebels are in man or one of their zone looks. No matter what defense they are in, teams knock down a ton of threes against them. They make 37.2% of their shots from three point range against Ole Miss, and Kermit Davis has had no answer throughout the year. While the offense is super fun to watch, the defense struggles to keep them in games.
My Thoughts
I’m a huge fan of the Rebels. They have some excellent guard play, and I think that really plays up in March, and their style of play is super exciting to watch. Can they get a stop when it matters? Who cares, they take and make a ton of transition threes. Can they get overwhelmed on the boards? Sure, but Breein Tyree is lightning quick and Terence Davis will disrespectfully dunk all over you. I don’t know if they win a game, they haven’t been playing well recently, but if they get hot, I wouldn’t want to play them.
- Utah State (28-6, 15-3)
Coach: Craig Smith
How They Got Here
In Craig Smith’s first season in Logan, the Aggies exceeded all expectations, winning their most games since 2012. With non-conference wins over Saint Mary’s and UC Irvine, they started off at a solid 11-5, but got red hot from that point forward. They lost just once from that point on, and took down Nevada on their way to tying for the conference title. They then won three straight games, putting themselves at ten straight wins heading into March, to win the Mountain West Tournament title.
Strengths
- The Aggies have one of the top offenses in the nation, and no one knows about it. They had the best adjusted offensive efficiency in the Mountain West, better than more well known program Nevada, and the easiest way to see that is their assist numbers. They rank sixth in the country in the number of field goals that they assist on, and are tenth in assists per game. They are led by Sam Merrill, who is scoring 21.2 points a game and he does an excellent job of absolutely everything on that end. He also leads the team in assists with 4.2, and he’s a knockdown shooter who you absolutely cannot leave open. They have multiple great shooters, as the team makes 35.7% of their shots from behind the arc. They also just get great shots on every trip down the court, and Craig Smith’s offense has led them to the tournament, and it will continue to lead them to success this March.
- Utah State is great inside the paint. Not only will they get layups with ease on the offensive end, but they dominate it defensively as well. They have freshman big man Neemias Queta who has turned into one of the best defensive bigs in the country. He is a huge deterrent to other teams when attempting to take shots on the interior, and with good reason. He is fourteenth in the nation with 2.4 blocks a game, and he is especially good at coming from the weak side to send a shot into the seats. This is a large reason why teams only shoot 42.1% from inside the arc against the Aggies, as I certainly wouldn’t want this 6’11” Portuguese dude getting me on the Top 10 plays with an insane block. They also do work on the glass, grabbing 40.2 rebounds a game, which is twelfth in the nation. They will be tough to beat in the front court with their excellent play from their big men.
Weaknesses
- While their defense in the paint is really good, it isn’t as good on the perimeter. Most of their guards aren’t athletic stoppers with huge plus wingspans, instead being solid overall with a weakness on this side of the ball. They don’t really force turnovers, and they noticeably give up a three point percentage of 35%. You only have to look at the first Nevada game, when the Wolf Pack overwhelmed them with athleticism to win the game. I worry that they get a draw against a team with super athletic shot makers, as that would be really tough for them to deal with.
My Thoughts
Very in on the Aggies. Craig Smith has done one of the best coaching jobs in the country in his first season in Logan, and he’s got the team running an excellent offense, led by Sam Merrill, who is one of the most underrated scorers in the nation. I’m a big fan of how every player buys into their role on both ends of the floor, and I think they win their first game before giving a team a tough game in the second round.
- Washington (26-8, 15-3)
Coach: Mike Hopkins
How They Got Here
The Huskies rolled through a down Pac-12, starting off 10-0 in conference play. They then stumbled, losing games against Cal and twice to Oregon down the stretch, and they couldn’t pull out the Pac-12 Tournament. They are playing some of their worst basketball of the season right now, so they are in a bad spot heading into the tournament.
Strengths
- Hopkins is a Jim Boeheim disciple, and so everything I said about the Syracuse zone applies here. They might also might have the best possible player for it in senior wing Matisse Thybulle, who is arguably the best defender in the nation. He averages 3.4 steals and 2.3 blocks a game at the top of the zone, and his timing is impeccable. He also has a 7 foot wingspan despite being just 6’5”, which obviously helps with the turnovers. Unsurprisingly, the Huskies as a team get 9 steals a game, ninth in the nation, and 5.7 blocks, good for second. Their zone might be better than the one run in Central New York, and it was wildly effective in the Pac-12 this season. I will also say that with the zone comes the same issues I outlined with Syracuse, mostly the rebounding, which the Huskies are atrocious at, but on the whole, the 2-3 has been a smashing success in Seattle.
Weaknesses
- Hey remember how Syracuse had a talented scorer along with guys who could be good offensively but were streaky? You’ll never guess what Washington has. Jaylen Nowell is very underappreciated for the scoring punch he provides the Huskies since he played in the Pac-12 this season, but he is truly cold blooded, especially in the mid range. Sound familiar? He’s West Coast Tyus Battle. Thybulle, for as great as he is defensively, has struggled on the other end of the court, especially with his jumper, and if he can make one or two threes a game, that could be huge for Washington. Add in low post presence Noah Dickerson and West Coast Frank Howard, David Crisp, along with some athletic but inconsistent wings, and you’ve got an incredibly streaky offensive team that often really struggles.
My Thoughts
The Huskies are kind of worse Syracuse. They’ve got Jaylen Nowell, who is basically their Tyus Battle, and the zone, but I think the supporting cast has less explosion potential. Noah Dickerson and David Crisp are solidt, but not doing anything crazy on the court, Matisse Thybulle is a defensive wizard but he just isn’t there offensively yet, and outside of those four, there aren’t any other threats really. I’ve said before and I’ll say again that the zone is a problem in the tournament, where teams on short notice can’t prepare effectively, and they might be better defensively than Cuse, but I haven’t liked how they are playing down the stretch, and I don’t know if they are going to win a game.
- UCF (23-8, 13-5)
Coach: Johnny Dawkins
How They Got Here
The Knights have been known as a football school recently, but they had a good season in basketball. They beat Alabama, Temple, Houston, and Cincinnati this season to earn their bid, and outside of an early season loss to Florida Atlantic, they were solid throughout the year. They did lose their final two games of the season, but they played good teams in Temple and Memphis.
Strengths
- The Knights are one of the top defensive units in the nation. They got overshadowed a bit since they play in a conference featuring both Houston and Cincinnati, but their defense is quite good and it especially shines inside the paint. I bet you can guess why. If you aren’t aware, they have 7’6” center Tacko Fall, who is a bit of a deterrent to opposing players, to say the least. He’s blocking 2.5 shots a game, and teams shoot just 44.6% on two point attempts since they often have to avoid the behemoth swatting their shot. It leads to off balance layups, floaters, and mid range jumpers, all of which UCF is happy to give up. The rest of the team are tough, physical players, and they defend well. BJ Taylor and Aubrey Dawkins have good size on the wing, and I really like Collin Smith at the four. There isn’t really anything they don’t do well on the defensive end, and that defense can lead them on a deep run.
Weaknesses
- The offense isn’t quite up to par with the defense. While Dawkins and Taylor are both good scorers, they often struggle to get the ball since the team struggles with turnovers. Point guard Terrell Allen isn’t great, and with a turnover percentage of 21.7%, that means the Knights can struggle to get into the offensive sets. They also have problems when the ball goes into the post, as Fall is unreliable with the ball in his hands. He can’t really dribble that well, and teams will often double down on him to get easy steals. To be fair, he has improved in those situations, but his lack of strength can be a problem as he gets the ball ripped out of his hands too often. They will need to keep hold of the ball more to win games.
My Thoughts
This is a very “meh” team. They have some good players, I actually think their top four of Aubrey Dawkins, BJ Taylor, Tacko Fall, and Collin Smith is very good, but they are just not exciting at all. They play good defense, but I don’t really know if their offense, especially at the point guard position, is good enough to win a game or two. I wouldn’t be that confident in this team heading into the tournament.
- Oklahoma (19-13, 7-11)
Coach: Lon Kruger
How They Got Here
Strengths
- The Sooners have the 23rd ranked defense in adjusted defensive efficiency this season, and have been a very good unit on that side of the ball. With Young this season, they’ve had to buckle down on that end of the court to win games, and they’ve done a very good job of that. Every player on the roster is fully bought into their defensive identity, and they play a tough and physical brand of defense that frustrates their opponents. They have been at their best defending the paint, with opponents just shooting 45% from inside the arc. One of the best things they do is rarely foul, which limits the easy points, and they do a great job of holding their opponents to a slow pace. They should be able to hold just about any team down on the defensive end.
Weaknesses
- The offensive end is pretty brutal to watch for Oklahoma. They really don’t do much on that end, and they had the ninth best offensive efficiency in the Big 12. They have one guy, Christian James, who can score consistently, and the rest of the team is pretty dreadful on that end. They don’t shoot it well, making just 34.2% of their shots from deep, and are just boring to watch offensively.
My Thoughts
If this breakdown seems short, that’s because it is. I just have no real thoughts on the Sooners. Like their the prototypical good defense, bad offense team and they really offer nothing unique. They’re a really boring team, which I think could be the worst thing to be in March, and I quite simply don’t want to write about them. I don’t think they are very talented, and they can win a game with the right matchup, but I wouldn't count on it. Let’s move on.
- Baylor (19-13, 10-8)
Coach: Scott Drew
How They Got Here
The Bears had a very strange season, struggling to losses against Texas Southern, Wichita State, and Stephen F Austin with their only win of note being Oregon. They then got hot in Big 12 play, starting 6-2, which made next to no sense, especially since they had lost big man Tristan Clark to injury. They have sort of backed into the tournament, losing their last four games of the season, and they need to find that early conference form once again.
Strengths
- The Bears run a funky 1-1-3 matchup zone that often creates huge problems for their opponents. As I’ve mentioned, facing a different defense means you have to adjust your entire offensive game plan, and this is one of the more unique looks in the country. It can be beaten, but with such little prep time, it is difficult for coaches to create and implement an effective plan of attack for this defense.
- Baylor is an elite rebounding team, especially on the offensive end. They get 38 boards a game, top 50 in the nation, and 38.2% of their misses on the offensive end, the second best mark in the country, which led 13.4 a game, tenth best in the nation. Obviously getting the ball right under the basket is a good thing for an offense, and they generate a ton of points with their rebounding. As my high school coach loved to tell us, rebounding is all about effort, and they sure play hard. Their leading rebounding, Mark Vital, is a perfect example. Despite standing at just 6’5”, he is grabbing 7.2 boards a game, which was one of the top marks in the Big 12. They’ll probably win the battle on the boards in every game they play in the tournament.
Weaknesses
- Outside of the easy putbacks, a lot of this offense is pretty brutal to watch. The fact that their best offensive player is a transfer from Yale who missed last season with injury says a lot about them. They only make 34% of their threes on the year, although they somehow shot 37.3%, the best in the Big 12 during conference play, and they really struggle with turnovers as well. They give the ball away 13.3 times a game, and they have six players with high turnover rates. Finally, they struggle from the foul line, converting 67.4% of their attempts, which is a problem for a team around the basket as much as they are.
My Thoughts
I want to give Scott Drew the most props for the incredible coaching job he did this season. Not only did they overachieve, but they did so after sustaining injuries to key players. However, I’m just not that bought in on Baylor. They don’t really have the talent level of other teams in the tournament, outside of March legend Makai Mason, who can just take over a game, and because of their injuries, they have to use some guys who are less than optimal. Although they play hard, it just doesn’t translate defensively, although as I’ve said, the zone plays up in March, but I don’t think they pick up a win.
- Iowa (22-11, 10-10)
Coach: Fran McCaffery
How They Got Here
There hasn’t been a team that fell off as much as the Hawkeyes did late in the season. They started off 20-5 and 9-5 in the Big Ten, with wins over Oregon, Iowa State, Ohio State, and very notably Michigan. They then went 2-6 down the stretch and looked dreadful in most of their games, losing by 20 in three of those six games. They will have to course correct from that awful stretch heading into the tournament.
Strengths
- The Hawkeyes shoot the ball like Clint Barton shoots arrows: they rarely miss. They have the fifteenth best adjusted offensive efficiency in the nation, and pretty much everyone is a threat from deep. Jordan Bohannon, Joe Wieskamp, and Isaiah Moss are all shooting over 38% from three, and their forwards can step out and make shots from behind the arc, with the one exception being Tyler Cook. Speaking of their front court, they have multiple talented players there, including Cook, a sort of Marvin Bagley-lite, and Luke Garza, a low post threat who has a nice variety of moves. They take pretty good care of the ball, and this offense can compete with any team in the country.
Weaknesses
- While their offense is up there with the best in the nation, the same can’t be said about their defense. They rank outside of the top 100 in defensive efficiency, and they haven’t been able to stop anyone all season. Their opponents are shooting 44.8% on the year from the field, which is quite bad, and teams are especially good at cooking the Hawkeyes weak perimeter defense and getting into the lane for an easy layup. Their bigs are also not very good defensively, with Cook specifically getting jump happy and often ends up out of position. They have had to go to zone at times this season just to try and hide their weak defense, and even that is pretty easy to pick apart. When they are playing at their best, their defensive woes can be overshadowed by their hot offense, but it’s a big worry especially because...
- They have been playing nowhere near their best recently. I am a big believer in momentum heading into March, and the fact that Iowa lost 6 of their last 8 is mildly concerning to me, to say the least. The games haven’t even been that close, as they are losing by an average of 13 points during that stretch. I would be wary of their recent performances before picking them to make a run.
My Thoughts
Had you asked me about Iowa a month ago, I would’ve been much more bullish on the Hawkeyes than I am now. They completely fell apart down the stretch, and have absolutely no momentum heading into March. With their on court product, they remind me a lot of Creighton last year: they can shoot the shit out of the ball, but they aren’t playing any sort of defense that will stop anyone. If they’re hot, they’re hot, and they will probably win that game, but I don’t think they sustain it for a long run. Still, that’s exactly the type of 7-10 seed no elite team wants to see, so if you want a little chaos in your bracket, they are a good pick.
- Seton Hall (20-13, 9-9)
Coach: Kevin Willard
How They Got Here
Outside of a month long stretch in January when Seton Hall lost six of eight games, they have arguably been one of the top teams in the nation. They took down Kentucky and Maryland during their non-conference schedule, finished third in the Big East, and got hot late, beating Marquette twice as well as Villanova in their last five games, losing that final game to the Wildcats and they are playing some great basketball right now.
Strengths
- Myles Powell is one of the top scorers in the country, and he leads the Pirates offense. He’s scoring 22.9 points a game, thirteenth in the nation, and he got a bit overshadowed my Markus Howard at Marquette, but was every bit as good, scoring 30+ points on eight different occasions this year. He is often tasked with creating his own shot, and he will either come off of a screen and immediately attack the basket, or he’ll pull up from 30 feet. Either way, the shot typically goes in, and Kevin Willard runs a lot of different looks in order to get him open. I think he can be a star in this tournament, and it wouldn’t shock me to see him dropping something like 35 points to win a game.
- I feel like people don’t really talk about how good the defense is for the Pirates. They have done a great job on that end all season, and they are top 50 in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency. They don’t jump off the page with one definitive strength, but they really are just a solid unit, especially of late. I really like Quincy McKnight on the defensive end,as he has given guys like Markus Howard and Phil Booth trouble, and bigs Michael Nzei and Romaro Gill have no problem with doing the dirty work in the post and on the glass. They are also consistently getting better, especially some of their younger players like Jared Rhoden, and while Powell will draw the headlines with his scoring, the defense is equally key to their success.
Weaknesses
- Everyone about the offense not named Myles Powell is pretty bad. There’s a reason they finished ninth in the Big East in adjusted offensive efficiency despite having the second leading scorer in the conference. Myles Cale is the only other player scoring in double figures, although to be fair their next three leading scorers are at 8.9 a game or better. Still, they made just 32.4% of shots from deep, and that’s with Powell, and he and Cale are the only two shooters over 30%. They tend to score in transition, so they will want to avoid a team that plays at a snail's pace like Virginia. They have also struggled with turnovers, as Quincy McKnight hasn’t been great as the main point guard, averaging 2.5 a game by himself. Powell has really covered up all the offensive woes by being incredible, and so far it’s worked pretty well, but it could very well catch up with them.
My Thoughts
Is Myles Powell one of the best scorers in the nation? Yep. Does he have a good supporting cast? Not really. Do I still really like the Pirates? Absolutely. Powell just scores the ball, and he’s been dragging Seton Hall along with him throughout the season, and they’ve been playing some of their basketball of the season lately. They have Sweet Sixteen potential and I think they will compete with every team they play thanks to that defense and an elite scorer.
- Minnesota (21-13, 9-11)
Coach: Richard Pitino
How They Got Here
The Golden Gophers were very good early in the year, starting 12-2 with wins over Washington and Wisconsin. From there, they struggled in a tough Big Ten, finishing at 9-11 in conference play. However, they played well late, beating four of their last six games, including taking down Purdue twice, and they only lost to Maryland and Michigan. They are playing some of their best basketball of the year, and they look good at the moment.
Strengths
- The Golden Gophers have one of the tallest teams in the country. They are eighteenth in average height in the country, and have only one player under 6’4” in the rotation. This really helps them on two fronts: defense and rebounding. With 6’8” Amir Coffey handling a lot of ball handling duties, they can trot out super big lineups on the defensive end, and overwhelm smaller opponents with their size. They also thrive on the glass, typically playing with two bigs on the floor and the aforementioned large wings, and Jordan Murphy has made a name for himself with his rebounding ability. While only standing at 6’7”, he is one of the top rebounders in the nation, grabbing 11.5 a game, fifth in the nation, and averages a double double. If they get matched up with a mid major or a team that plays with small ball lineups, they will hold a huge advantage, both literally and figuratively.
Weaknesses
- They can’t shoot at all. Pitino has used a lot of old school offensive philosophies, with tons of post ups, to compensate for their lack of shooting from the perimeter, and it sort of works. They only take 28.8% of their shots from behind the arc, the seventh lowest in the nation, and only freshman Gabe Kalscheur can make his shots, knocking down 41.6% of his threes, since their next best shooter is Amir Coffey, who is shooting 30.6% from behind the arc. Coffey is very effective as a slasher, but he will often run into a lack of spacing because Murphy and center Daniel Oturu are occupying the paint, along with their defenders. This explains why they don’t shoot that well inside the arc either, making 48.4% of their shots there. They are a prime example as to why pace and space is catching on, as the team just doesn’t have the offense of some of the other top teams in the tournament.
My Thoughts
This team just doesn’t do anything for me. Jordan Murphy is very good, and he’s probably going to get a double double, but the guard play is very unconvincing to me, and I don’t think they have the talent level of some of the other teams they could face. And despite their size at the guard position, I don’t really think they have anyone who could be considered a standout defensively, so I don’t know if they can get stops down the stretch. I think they lose in the first round.
- Florida (19-15, 9-9)
Coach: Mike White
How They Got Here
The Gators were slightly disappointing throughout the season, not picking up any super notable wins until mid-February, when they won at LSU. That was the peak of the renaissance for Florida, coming in the middle of a five game winning streak, and they went 7-4 down the stretch to secure their spot in the tournament, although they were 2-4 over their last 6 games.
Strengths
- The Gators have one of the best defenses in the country. They run a 1-2-2 full court press and it isn’t intended to create steals like VCU, but instead to slow teams down. The average possession against them is 18.9 seconds, the sixth slowest in the nation. That being said, they do manage to get turnovers, with 7.2 steals a game and a 22.6% turnover rate from their opponents. One of the things they do best defensively is switch, and Keyontae Johnson playing the four allows them as lot of defensive versatility, and they often switch 1-5. All of this adds up to the Gators possessing the fourteenth best adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation, and an elite unit on that end of the floor.
Weaknesses
- This should be a really good offensive team. However, they just can’t get the consistency they need to be on par with their defense. KeVaughn Allen and Jalen Hudson are particularly frustrating since they have shown incredible potential on the offensive end in past seasons. Allen is the more consistent of the two and the leader in points per game of the Gators but his 12 this season don’t compare to the 14 he poured in as a sophomore. Hudson is even more maddening, as one season after leading the team with 15.5 points a game, he’s fallen off a cliff this season, averaging 9 a game and coming off of the bench. On the whole, the Gators don’t shoot it well, especially with these two struggling, and Noah Locke has become their only really consistent option from behind the arc. The offense has shown signs of life recently, led by a renaissance from Hudson, but we have a season of futility against a few weeks of good play.
My Thoughts
Now this is a team that I think could make it to a Sweet Sixteen. I love Andrew Nembhard at the point, since he is a prototypical floor general, and scorers on the wing, mostly Hudson, who are starting to heat up. I am worried about their lack of size and inconsistent offense, and with the wrong matchup, they could bomb out in the first round. But, given the right draw, they could head on a deep run and have the potential to be the team no one sees coming, especially winning 7 of 11 down the stretch.
- Ohio State (19-14, 8-12)
Coach: Chris Holtmann
How They Got Here
The Buckeyes started off the season strong, beating Cincinnati, Creighton, and Minnesota en route to a 12-1 start to the season. They then lost their first five games in Big Ten play, and the only team of note they beat the rest of the season was Iowa. They come in having lost four of five, although they were without Kaleb Wesson, who is back, for most of those games, since he was out with a suspension.
Strengths
- The Buckeyes have been one of the better defensive teams in the nation, ranking 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency on the season. I absolutely love Luther Muhammad on the defensive end, and the freshman has already emerged as one of the toughest defenders in the Big Ten. They defend both the perimeter and the interior well, making sure teams don’t do anything with much success against their defense. They do an excellent job of sticking with their man on drives and forcing tough shots, and they often have a help defender as well. Chris Holtmann is one of the top coaches in the country, and he’s got this defense playing at a fairly high level.
Weaknesses
- Unfortunately for Holtmann, the same can’t be said about the offense. To be fair, most of the late season struggles can be attributed to the loss of big man Kaleb Wesson to a suspension. He’s so key to the offense, with his ability to dominate in the low post thanks to his large frame, and Ohio State runs a lot of action for him. Unfortunately, this isn’t 1989, and post ups aren’t a particularly great way to score points. However, it’s really their only option, as most of the team struggles on the offensive end, with CJ Jackson being their only other double digit scorer. They also can’t really shoot, making just 34.3% of their shots from behind the arc. I worry about this team being able to score enough to win games.
My Thoughts
They would be a great pick to win the NIT. I just don’t think Ohio State has the talent level to make much noise, especially offensively, and that could be their biggest problem in the tournament. I really like Kaleb Wesson, and he is great at what he does, but he would be much better on a team with shooters, and that simply isn’t the case in Columbus. CJ Jackson will be key in that respect, as the point guard is their best shooter, and I think for them to advance, he will need to have a big game. Unfortunately, I don’t see it and I think they bow out quickly.
- Belmont (26-5, 16-2)
Coach: Rick Byrd
How They Got Here
The Bruins had to sweat it out on Selection Sunday, but managed to get an at-large bid. They had pretty good wins, with a sweep of Lipscomb, knocking off UCLA in Pauley Pavilion, Western Kentucky at home, and at Murray State. They couldn’t get it done against the Racers in the conference championship game without big man Nick Muszynski, who is now healthy, but prior to that, had won 14 straight games, and remain one of the hotter teams even after the loss and week long break.
Strengths
- Rick Byrd runs one of the best offenses in the nation, and basketball purists will love to watch the Bruins play. They have immaculate spacing, share the ball beautifully, and it has been wildly effective, as they are twentieth in adjusted offensive efficiency. They have a legitimate star in Dylan Windler, who has been drawing NBA looks, and averaged 21.4 points with 10.7 rebounds while shooting a team high 42.6% from deep. They run four out, with Windler playing the four since he is 6’8”, and everyone is a threat from three point range, as the team shoots 37.1% from three. They are also fourth in the nation, shooting 49.9% from the field, and have a 15.4% turnover percentage, the eighteenth best mark in the nation. They play at a fast pace, executing their offense with precision and getting a good shot very quickly, and Belmont leads the nation is assists per game with 19.9, a prime example of their excellent offense. They are going to be tough for anyone to stop, and I buy into their offense fully.
Weaknesses
- The Bruins defense isn’t all that good, and it may not be for the reasons you assume. They don’t lack size or athleticism, with Dylan Windler possessing both, and they have three other bigs, led by Nick Muszynski, who is banged up at the moment but tracking to play. They also have players like Kevin McClain, an athletic guard who does a lot well on both ends. However, their fast pace allows a lot of points for the other team, and they can sometimes not get back quick enough, allowing easy shots. Teams shoot 34.7% from three against them, which is a little too high, and they put little pressure on opposing ball handlers, so they don’t get many turnovers. They actually do a great job on the defensive glass, getting 29.9 defensive boards a game, sixth most in the nation, but because shoot so well against them, it doesn’t matter all that much.
My Thoughts
I really love this team. Their offense is sooooo pretty to watch, and there are shades of teams like North Carolina in their offensive game. Rick Byrd is an excellent coach, and I think the Bruins offense can be put up there with any in the country. However, they will need to be able to get stops as well, and that’s why I think they don’t make a Sweet Sixteen run, although I think they have a good shot at getting out of Dayton and winning a game in the first round.
- Temple (23-9, 13-5)
Coach: Fran Dunphy
How They Got Here
In the final season for legendary head coach, the Owls managed to get themselves into the tournament. With wins over Missouri, Davidson, Houston, and UCF to go along with a 13-5 record in a good American Athletic Conference, they did enough to get in, even with a loss to Wichita State in the opening round of the conference tournament.
Strengths
- The Owls have an excellent backcourt, one of the most underrated in the nation, and all of the players compliment each other perfectly. It all starts with Shizz Alston, one of the best players you’ve never heard of. The 6’4” point guard is incredible, leading the AAC in scoring with 19.7 points a game while coming in second in the conference with 5 assists a game as well. He is so good at attacking the rim, using his size advantage over most other point guards to finish at the basket. He’s also the best shooter in the backcourt, making 35.3% of his attempts from deep. He’s the main reason why Temple has a 15.6% turnover percentage, as he rarely gives the ball away. Next up is Nate Pierre-Louis, who is a defensive stopper. He can frustrate even the best of scorers, and he will be key in making a run. He and the final member, Quentin Rose, are why Temple is sixteenth in the nation in steals, with 8.7 a game. Rose, the final member of the triumvirate, is another excellent scorer, with 16.5 points a game, and he also has great size, which allows him to finish at the rim. This is one of the bets guard trios in the nation, and they will be tough to stop for anyone.
Weaknesses
- Temple’s front court is nowhere near the quality of their backcourt. The Owls have three main rotation players, with JP Moorman, De’Vondre Perry, and Ernest Aflakpui. All three are OK at best, and Moorman is probably the best of the three, at least offensively. He’s got a bit of a shooting stroke, and contributes the most to the team offensively. Aflakpui is the best defensively, grabbing 7 boards a game and he’s also the best shot blocker on the team. As for Perry, he’s the Goldilocks, settling in the middle of the other two. One area where they are particularly bad is on the glass, as they only get 34.3 rebounds a game, and any team with skilled front court players will present a big problem for them.
My Thoughts
I really love their backcourt. It is clearly the strength of this team, and it makes plays on both ends of the court, which is rare. However, that front court gives me serious pause. They need to avoid a team with any sort of good big men, as they will have a field day against the Owls. I think they have the ability to win a game, but they probably bow out in the Round of 32 at best.
- Saint Mary’s (22-11, 11-5)
Coach: Randy Bennett
How They Got Here
The Gaels looked like they were headed for the wrong side of the bubble entering the WCC Championship game. They were 11-5 in the conference, not great by any means, and their best win was over New Mexico State, having blown chances against Utah State, Mississippi State LSU, UC Irvine, and Gonzaga twice. However, they knocked off the Zags to win the conference tournament, giving them the automatic bid. They haven’t lost to a team that isn’t Gonzaga since January, and the win over the Bulldogs is up there with any in the nation.
Strengths
- The Gaels possess one of the top scorers in the nation in guard Jordan Ford. He scored 21.3 points a game this year, and is one of the shiftiest players in the nation. Randy Bennett has long been one of the most underrated coaches, especially offensively, in the nation, and he runs some great actions to free up Ford. Jordan Sperber has pointed out that he will use Ford as a screener, and that frees him up for threes, which he makes at a 42.3% clip on the year. He is also a very good pull up shooter, and teams commit so much attention to him at the arc, but you can’t overcommit, or he’ll drive past you with his great speed. He makes the offense as good as it is, and he’s always posed to go off.
- One of the things the Gaels do the best is crash the glass. They get 34.8 a game, which isn’t a crazy number on it’s own, but it’s their opponents numbers that make them a great rebounding unit. Opposing teams only get 29.1 rebounds per game against the Gaels, including only 7.5 on the offensive glass. Saint Mary’s wins the battle of the glass by over 5 a game, and teams that rely on offensive rebounds heavily, Baylor comes to mind, will struggle against them.
Weaknesses
- Saint Mary’s lacks that top tier athletic talent that a lot of teams they play will have. The Gaels best athlete is probably Malik Fitts, a transfer from South Florida, who is the power forward, but they are exactly what you expect Saint Mary’s to look like. They have a lot of white guys running around who aren’t going to dunk on you and embrace fundamentals. Bennett schemes around their deficiencies, but they would struggle against a team who is running in the open court.
My Thoughts
The Gaels aren’t a team I would want to be matched up with. They have Jordan Ford, who is a big time scorer, and one of the top coaches in the country in Randy Bennett. They beat Gonzaga, which is no small feat, and I really like their team as a whole. I wouldn’t be shocked if they win a game or two in the tournament based on the coaching advantage and some very solid talent.
- Arizona State (22-10, 12-6)
Coach: Bobby Hurley
How They Got Here
The Sun Devils find themselves back in Dayton for the second straight season, and the story is mostly the same. After a hot start, 9-2 with wins over Mississippi State, Utah State, and Kansas and losses coming against Nevada and Vanderbilt, they decided to follow up the home win over the Jayhawks with home losses to Princeton and Utah. They went 1-2 against Oregon and beat Washington in their lone matchup, giving them two decent wins, but they didn’t look nearly as good as they had early in the season, and they have maybe started to heat up again, winning six of their last eight games.
Strengths
- When the Sun Devils get running, they are tough to stop. They have Remy Martin, who is their primary playmaker, who will set up his teammates and can also drive to the basket himself. Joining him in the backcourt is Luguentz Dort, a Canadian freshmen who has to be one of the strongest players in the country, and when he’s going downhill, you can’t stop him. They also have Rob Edwards off the bench, who is the best shooter on the team, and isn’t afraid to put it up in transition. Zylan Cheatham is an athletic freak, who averages a double double, but can grab and go with a rebound, and threw down a fair share of highlight reel dunks this season. Taeshon Cherry is another great athlete who can finish in transition, and big men Kimani Lawrence and Romello White are effective rim runners. They play at one of the fifty fastest paces in the nation, and they are excellent when running the fast break.
Weaknesses
- Unfortunately, things aren’t as good in the half court for Arizona State. They really struggle to score in half court setting, largely thanks to a lack of spacing. Edwards is the only reliable shooter from deep, although I wouldn’t leave Dort or Martin open, and that leaves these great athletes who like to attack the rim less space to operate. Their possessions in the half court often end with one of those three guards putting up a contested shot, and the results aren’t great.
My Thoughts
The outlook for Arizona State really depends on controlling the tempo. If they can speed up their opponent and play in a situation where they thrive, then they have a shot at winning a first round game. If not, and they are in a lot of half court settings, then they need to hope contested jumpers are falling, and I wouldn’t count on that. Still, Dort will be a problem, as he is a tireless defender who often picks up foul court, and he can get to the basket at will when he’s playing at his best, and if he has a big game, then the Sun Devils can definitely win a game or two.
- Murray State (27-4, 16-2)
Coach: Matt McMahon
How They Got Here
The Racers went to the tournament last season, and they came into the year as one of the favorites in the Ohio Valley Conference. Then Ja Morant happened. While people in college basketball and NBA Draft circles as someone who could be a first round pick, he transcended all of that hype and turned himself into one of the most exciting players in the sport. He’s now viewed as a top 3 pick and he’s arguably been the best point guard in the sport. Murray State lost both of their non-conference tests against Alabama and Auburn, although both games were very close, and although they lost their only regular season matchup against Belmont, they were still very good. They won their last 11 games of the season including the conference tournament, with wins over Jacksonville State and Belmont, the other two top teams, to lock up their place in the tournament.
Strengths
- You can’t talk about Murray State without talking about Ja Morant. He is one of the best and most exciting players in the tournament, and he will determine how far Murray State can go. He is averaging 24.6 points, 10 assists, 5.5 rebounds, and 1.8 steals a game, which puts him at eighth in points and tops in assists in the nation. While he has had a few issues with turnovers throughout the season, but it often doesn’t matter because of how impactful he is on their offense. They shoot 57.2% from inside the arc, and a lot of that comes from Morant setting up his teammates for easy buckets as well as his own dynamic finishing ability at the rim. He shoots 34% from three, which isn’t great, but it is enough to make teams respect him, which allows him to use his blow by speed to get to the basket. He also performed against top competition, scoring 38 against Alabama with 9 boards and 5 rebounds, had 25/8/7 against Auburn, and put up 36 in the OVC finals game against Belmont. He’s one of the few players that can win a NCAA Tournament game by himself, and I am so excited to watch him ball out in March.
- What often gets overlooked about Murray State since they have Ja is their defense. They do an excellent job at defending the three point line, with opponents only shooting 28.5% from three against them on the year. They do a very good job of forcing teams to shoot inside the arc, which helps them keep their opponents points per game down. They do a very good job rebounding as well, getting 37.9 a game, and they will need to defend and own the boards if they hope to win a game.
Weaknesses
- The Racers aren’t the best shooting team from behind the arc. They have only made 34.4% of their threes on the year, and just 35% during conference play, which was eighth best in the Ohio Valley. Additionally, in three of their four losses, they were shooting in the twenties, and it got covered up by the fact that Murray State held a talent advantage in conference play. I worry that against a team that has similar athleticism and good defenders, Murray State will have to end up shooting more threes than they want, and that could be a huge problem.
My Thoughts
Listen, when you have the best player on the floor, you’ll have a shot at winning every game you play. That’s what Murray State will be looking at, as there are few players in the nation better than Ja Morant, and I doubt they will face them in the first round. The question for me is how do the secondary pieces hold up. We know Morant will play well, but can Shaq Buchanan, Tevin Brown and Darnell Cowart step up and have a big game next to him? I think so, and this will be a trendy upset pick when the brackets are released, and I have to say, I like them to knock off a higher seed.
- St. John’s (21-12, 8-10)
Coach: Chris Mullin
How They Got Here
The Johnnies entered Big East play undefeated after an admittedly weak non-conference schedule, although they did beat Rutgers and VCU, and despite beating Villanova, Seton Hall, and Marquette twice, they also got swept by DePaul, Providence, and Xavier, so it’s impossible to get any sort of reading on this team. They have lost five of seven, including getting spanked by Marquette in the Big East Tournament, so that probably means they’re going to the Sweet Sixteen, or it just means they are bad.
Strengths
- The Red Storm have one of the highest turnover margins in the nation. They force 15.4 turnovers a game, and only cough it up 10.3 times themselves, sitting at +5.1 per game in the turnover battle. That is huge for a team that is excellent in transition, and their entire starting five thrives in the open court. Shamorie Ponds leading the way, getting 2.6 steals a game, the ninth most in the nation, and also being a great passer, with 5.2 assists a game. Joining him in the backcourt is Auburn transfer Mustapha Heron, who has excellent athleticism and can really score, along with Justin Simon, a defensive stopper who is getting 1.4 steals a game and is a skilled finisher. They also have LJ Figueroa, who gets 1.8 steals a game, and Marvin Clark in the front court, as mobile, athletic bigs who will throw it down on the break. Their high octane pace, they have the twelfth shortest offensive possessions in the country, makes them a formidable team to play against.
Weaknesses
- They get killed on the glass. Their opponents get 38.8 rebounds per game against the Johnnies, while they only get 32.5 themselves. This comes from two things: over aggressiveness and a lack of size. Their bigs often sell out for blocks, and that leaves them out of position. They also start 6’6” and 6’7” guys at the four and five, and only have Sedee Keita at 6’9” off the bench for real size, but he plays just 13.7 minutes a game, often to little effect. They will want to avoid a team like Maryland with dominating bigs at all costs.
- While they have a great starting five, the Red Storm really don’t have any depth behind them. They only play eight guys, and none of the starters play less than 70% of the team’s minutes. I think this could be really bad, especially if they get sent to Dayton, since relying on basically five players to win three games in five games, with a flight in between the first and second, they could get tired very quickly and might not hold up over the full tournament.
My Thoughts
I like this team, even though I shouldn’t. The top five is just so good in the open court and they are fun to watch, so I have been a pretty big fan of theirs all year. Still, that lack of depth and size is super concerning to me, and I think they have too many issues to win a game in the tournament.
- Oregon (23-12, 10-8)
Coach: Dana Altman
How They Got Here
The Ducks entered the season with high hopes after bringing in one of the top recruiting classes in the country, third in the coutnry per 247Sports, headlined by Bol Bol, who many figured would be a star in Eugene. He got hurt early in the year, and the entire team was a disappointment this season. They beat Syracuse in the non-conference, but lost to Texas Southern, and started 6-8 in Pac-12 play. However, they have since won eight straight games, including beating Arizona State and Washington twice, and they actually look pretty good at the moment.
Strengths
- Like a large portion of the Pac-12, Oregon has moved into a zone this year, and it has worked very well for the Ducks. They rank eighteenth in adjusted defensive efficiency, and have done one thing really effectively in that zone: limit threes. Unlike Pac-12 counterpart Washington, they have a match up element to their zone, and it resembles a straight man at times, so they aren’t just guarding one spot and allowing threes. Teams shoot just 29.4% from deep against the Ducks, and yet they still jack up shots from behind the arc, with 45.2% of shots coming from behind the arc. This is the sign of a great zone defense, as they don’t allow penetration but aren’t giving up open shots either. They also have Kenny Wooten, who is one of the best rim protectors in the country, anchoring the zone, and the Ducks are 65th in the country in blocks at 4.2 and they also get turnovers on the perimeter, getting 7.8 steals a game, 34th in the nation. Their defense led them to the Pac-12 Championship and it very well could lead them to a run in March.
Weaknesses
- Goodness is the offense tough to watch at times. They rely pretty heavily on making threes, which may not be the best strategy when you only make 34.3% of your shots from three point range. They have the talent with players like Payton Pritchard and Louis King, but they haven’t been anything even kind of resembling consistent. King scored 22 in one game and 7 in the next, which isn’t a great sign when you are heavily relied on to produce. They also don’t get to the free throw line consistently, which would be a great way to get a consistent stream of points, but they seem to be content ignoring it. They have the talent to be good offensively, but it hasn’t all come together, and I don’t think that starts on the biggest stage in the sport.
My Thoughts
Not really a team I like that much. While they are playing very well recently, and Louis King has come on strong, I still don’t fully trust the Ducks. I really think they’ve been the beneficiaries of some kind statistical luck with their three point percentage against, and I really think if they were to play against a team that shoots the ball really well, which describes no one in the Pac-12 and could certainly explain their success defending the arc, they would lose that game. My main concern is with their consistency, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see them completely lay an egg in their opening game.
- New Mexico State (30-4, 15-1)
Coach: Chris Jans
How They Got Here
The Aggies had a great season by all accounts, obviously only losing four games all season, with a sweep of in-state rival New Mexico and a victory over Washington State, and they dominated the WAC save a loss in their first conference game against Cal Baptist. They have since won 19 straight games, and are one of the hottest teams in the nations heading into the tournament.
Strengths
- The Aggies have one of the most unique teams in the country and in recent memory because of their depth. They played a 13 to 14 man rotation this season, with 13 different players seeing at least 10 minutes per game. They don’t really have star player, since no one plays enough minutes to establish themselves as a name to watch. It’s hard to establish the true statistical advantage, but it can’t be easy for opposing teams to know the strengths and weaknesses of every player on the team, I can barely keep track, and they should never have a player in foul trouble. They have multiple guys who can go off and I wanted to highlight their crazy depth.
- The Aggies crash the glass like few teams in the nation, grabbing 38.4 rebounds a game, which is 36th in the country. They are eighth in offensive rebounding percentage and and fourth in defensive rebounding percentage, and opponents only grab 28.8 rebounds per game against them. That’s a crazy disparity, and all of those offensive rebounds play a large role in why they shoot 56.6% from two point range, ninth best in the nation. If they get matched up against a team that doesn’t place a huge emphasis on the glass or plays small, they have the ability to absolutely kill that team on the boards and win a game that way.
Weaknesses
- The biggest area of weakness for New Mexico State is their defense. While they are great on the glass, teams seem to find it fairly easy to score against them. Their defensive possessions are typically not very long, which means teams are getting shots early in the shot clock. Maybe this comes from the constant switching of players, with lineups not getting comfortable together and failing to establish a rhythm defensively. I don’t really know, since effort isn’t a problem, and every player on the court plays their hardest. Still, a team with a reasonably good offense should be able to exploit the Aggies defense.
My Thoughts
Their 13 man rotation is one of the most unique things in the country, and they have some really good offensive players like Terrell Brown and AJ Harris. They are certainly one of the top mid-major programs in the country and they have some high major talent on the roster in the form of multiple transfers. I don’t fully trust the defense of the Aggies against a high major opponent, but I fully expect them to give their first round matchup a game and maybe pick up a win.
- Liberty (28-6, 14-2)
Coach: Ritchie McKay
How They Got Here
The Flames had a great season in their first year in the Atlantic Sun, and they made noise by being the death knell in Steve Alford’s tenure at UCLA. However, they are much more than that, tying with Lipscomb atop the conference. They also challenged themselves in the non-conference schedule, facing name brand Vanderbilt, Georgetown, Alabama, and UCLA , although they lost the first three, and beat good mid-majors like Kent State and Georgia State. They had a very successful Atlantic Sun season, and split the regular season series with Lipscomb, before beating them in the conference championship game on the road.
Strengths
- Both of Liberty’s best players are forwards. Caleb Homesley and Scottie James are an excellent front court duo, and they both contribute a lot offensively. James had one of the better seasons at the mid-major level this year, scoring 13.1 points a game to go along with 8.7 rebounds. He was hard to stop for Atlantic Sun teams all season, and he can go off for big games in both areas. He’s hyper efficient, making 67.7% of his shots, and he;’s got incredible touch around the basket. As for Homesley, he’s a bit more of a stretch four type, but is still very effective, averaging 12 points and 5.5 boards per game. They are a huge reason why Liberty is so great in the paint, making 56.9% of their shots inside the arc, the seventh best mark in the nation. These two will cause problems for any team they get matched up against.
- I mentioned the slow pace as a detriment to Virginia, but it works in the favor of the Flames. Since they are looking to take down a team with more talented players, forcing the superior athletes to play in the half court and beat them at their own game is an excellent strategy, and the lower possession count allows them to hang around for longer. They should be able to be in a game with every team because of the pace.
Weaknesses
- Ironically, despite mirroring Virginia in many aspects, their defense isn’t anywhere near as good. They also play a pack line system, and yet teams seem to have very little trouble beating their defense. They are barely inside the top one hundred in adjusted defensive efficiency, and have some issues with size. They play some smaller players, and no one really has plus athleticism or size, so against teams with those quantities, they have had a lot of trouble. Kentucky would be a nightmare matchup for this team, given they have size and athletic bigs, but the defense could be their Achilles heel in March.
My Thoughts
I wouldn’t want to be matched up with this team. They are a sort of mini-Virginia, McKay was a long time Tony Bennett assistant, and that should be terrifying for a five seed. While their bigs are a bit undersized and will struggle with length and athleticism, they are so fundamentally sound, it’s hard to throw them, off their game The slow pace should keep them in games and with their efficiency on both ends, they’ve got a great shot to create an upset in the first round.
- UC Irvine (30-5, 15-1)
Coach: Russell Turner
How They Got Here
If you want to see total domination of a conference, look no further than UC Irvine in the Big West. They beat Saint Mary’s and Montana in non-conference play, and then rolled through the conference, losing just one game. They enter on a 16 game winning streak, and dispatched of Cal State Fullerton by 28 in the conference championship game, so they seem ready for an actual challenge.
Strengths
- The Anteaters are one of the tallest mid-majors in the nation. They play three players 6’8” or taller, and often have two true bigs on the floor at the same time. Of course, it makes sense that their best player is 5’10” Max Hazzard, but I digress. The twin towers that they often employ make them tough to stop, especially for undersized Big West teams. They are eleventh in the nation in rebounds, grabbing 40.3 a game, and they are excellent rim protectors, often intimidating opposing guards and dissuading them from taking a shot at all. When they do, it rarely goes in, as they have the best two point defense in the country, with opponents making just 40.6% of their twos. They shouldn’t be scared of any team in the nation thanks to their huge front court that can cause problems for any opponent.
Weaknesses
- The Anteaters aren’t a great offensive unit. Max Hazzard and Evan Leonard are probably their two best players, but they often struggle to find space since they are sharing the floor with two big men who eat up a ton of space, especially around the rim. You would assume that they are then great around the rim, but they aren’t, making just 50.3% of their two point attempts. Hazzard and Leonard are often reduced to being a catch and shoot guy as they can both knock down shots, each shooting around 40% from deep. They tend to end their offensive possessions with a lot of post ups, and I don’t know if that is the best way to score in college basketball today.
My Thoughts
The Anteaters should win a game based on their nickname alone. If you want more substantial analysis, they have one of the best coaches at the mid-major level and a really great system that maximizes their talent. I would like to see them play smaller at times, but the team they do have is more than capable. I wonder how their bigs will do against better competition, but I think they have what it takes to win a tournament game, especially since they come in red hot.
- Vermont (27-6, 14-2)
Coach: John Becker
How They Got Here
After missing out on the tournament thanks to a buzzer beater from Jairus Lyles, you might know his team, UMBC, from something else, Vermont returned with vengeance. They took down Yale, Northeastern, and St. Bonaventure during non-conference play, and dominated the America East sans the Retrievers, going 0-2 against UMBC in the regular season. However, when they faced off in the conference championship game, Vermont locked them down and won by 17, getting them back to the tournament.
Strengths
- The Catamounts have an excellent offense, and it all revolves around stud forward Anthony Lamb. The big man was an absolute force this season, scoring 21.4 points and grabbing 7.8 rebounds. He is the fulcrum of the offense, operating in the high and low post and in ball screens, and he is able to bully just about anyone. He also added a jumper to his game and shoots 37% from three and can drive past a man, so have fun stopping him. Around him, they have the three Duncan brothers, led by senior Ernie, who is a deadeye shooter, making 42.5% of his shots from deep on the year. They also have sophomore point guard Stef Smith, who is a great passer and can create off of the dribble. They don’t have any weak spots offensively, making them very hard to gameplan for.
- As good as their offense is, their defense is even better. They showed it off in the America East title game, when they held UMBC to 49 points and gave the Retrievers nothing easy all game. Lamb allows them to do a lot of switching since he is mobile, and they make sure they crash the glass, rarely allowing offensive rebounds, giving up the second lowest percentage in the nation. They protect the paint well, keeping teams on the perimeter, although they sometimes overhelp and will give up an open shot from deep. Still, no team is perfect, but their defense is absolutely legit and can give teams fits.
Weaknesses
- They have one pretty glaring weakness, and that’s a lack of size. Lamb plays center despite being 6’6”, and other than seldom used reserves Ryan Davis and Ra Kpedi, there aren’t any other options. They also don’t have a collection of athletes, and that’s why I hate the fact they got matched up with Florida State. I wrote more here, but felt the need to change it after seeing the bracket. Basically, a long, athletic team is exactly what they needed to avoid, and they got one of the longest and most athletic in the country. It’s a nightmare scenario for them, but they should still be competitive.
My Thoughts
As of my writing this, I don’t know who the Catamounts are playing. I think they are winning their first game. Anthony Lamb is an absolute stud, and with Stef Smith and the Duncan brothers, who all make their shots from deep, which gives their offense an unstoppable quality. They also play good defense, and with a great coach like John Becker, they’ve got the ability to win a game, and maybe two. This might be my top sleeper team to make a Sweet Sixteen run for March.
- Saint Louis (23-12, 10-8)
Coach: Travis Ford
How They Got Here
After coming into the season with high expectations, Saint Louis looked poised to compete for an at-large bid by defeating Seton Hall, Butler, and Oregon State in non-conference play, and starting 5-0 in the Atlantic 10. They then went 5-8 down the stretch in the regular season, before regaining their best form, winning four straight games in the A-10 Tournament to lock up their spot in the tournament.
Strengths
- This might’ve been the most talented team in their conference. They were the preseason favorite according to many, including myself, and with good reason. Even without top 100 recruit Carte’Are Gordon, who transferred mid year, the talent level on this team is insane. They have a seven man rotation that wouldn’t look out of place in a high major league, led by Tramaine Isabell. The grad transfer from Drexel started a bit slowly, but came on strong down the stretch, including dropping 39 points on Duquesne. Alongside him in the backcourt is leading scorer Javon Bess, who scored 15.3 a game on the season, and was a leader on the court. At 6’6”, the senior could play at any program in the country thanks to his toughness and scoring ability. The third starting guard is Jordan Goodwin, who is another excellent slasher and finisher. Freshman Fred Thatch has also shown flashes, and Maryland transfer Dion Wiley has struggled to find playing time despite being in the Terps rotation last season, showing the skill in this backcourt. Up front, Hasahn French is a dude, and he is sort of reminiscent of Kaleb Wesson at Ohio State. Finally, DJ Foreman is just a rock solid big. This team may be a low seed, but they won’t be outmatched talentwise.
- The Billikens got things done this season on the defensive end. All of the players mentioned above are very good defenders and play with intensity on that end of the floor. They are top 50 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they have made scoring against them very difficult. They play a physical man to man defense most of the time, although they have gone to zone at times. It’s worked to great effect, as they used their superior athleticism throughout Atlantic 10 play to frustrate some really good offensive teams like Davidson. Teams are shooting 40.9% from the field and 31.3% from beyond the arc against SLU, some of the best marks in the nation. It’s hard to find a team that competes as hard as they do defensively, and they have the skill to execute as well.
Weaknesses
- This is legitimately one of the worst offensive teams in the tournament. I mean god damn it is ugly to watch them play. They shoot 41.8% from the field, 299th in the nation, and Wofford shoots better from three point range than that. Speaking of three point range, they legitimately have no shooters. Bess is their best shooter, making 33.2% of his threes, and as a team, they are shooting a scorching hot 30.8% from behind the arc. They are 327th in the country from beyond the arc, which is actually better than Duke fun fact, and the only thing they do remotely well is getting offensive rebounds, of which there are plenty given how often they miss shots. They grab 13.8 offensive boards a game, fifth in the nation, and they have to hope someone can make threes, or else it’s far too easy to close out short every time and watch them throw up bricks.
My Thoughts
There’s a lot to like about this team. They are undoubtedly talented and can give a high major team a real test with their stout defensive. But, and pardon my language, holy shit is this team bad on the offensive end. The only four teams worse by adjusted offensive efficiency, they rank 205, are Old Dominion, Prairie View A&M, Bradley, and NC Central. You may notice two of those teams are in the play in game, which should tell you all you need to know about this team offensively. They need to make their game into a slow, ugly fight, and that could work, but I just can’t get past that putrid offense.
- Northeastern (23-10, 14-4)
Coach: Bill Coen
How They Got Here
The Huskies blew a huge lead in the Colonial Tournament final last season, collapsing to allow Charleston to get in over them. With star point guard Vasa Pusica, they were able to take down Alabama in non-conference play. Without him, they struggled to the tune of a 7-8 start. Since then, they’ve lost just twice, including once at Charleston in overtime, and enter on a seven game winning streak after knocking off Hofstra to claim the CAA title.
Strengths
- The Huskies are a nice palate cleanser after looking that shitshow of an offense that is Saint Louis. Bill Coen runs a great offense, and it is great to watch. They share the ball as well as any team in the country, hunting for the best shot. The tone is set by Serbian point guard Vasa Pusica. He leads the team in points and assists, at 17.8 and 4.2 respectively, and like many players on the team, is a sniper from behind the ark, making 40.1% of his threes on the year. He is a very willing passer, and the ball movement has great effects. They have seven players averaging over 8 points a game, and shoot 48.2% from the field, which is top 25 in the country. They also have a ton of sharpshooters, with all four players who have taken 100 threes shooting over 39% from deep. The team makes 38.8% of their attempts from three point range on the year, fourteenth in the nation, and they are taking 46.3% of their shots from behind the arc. This offense will give someone fits, as they can pick apart a man or a zone with their crisp ball movement, and are lethal from three.
Weaknesses
- The biggest problem Northeastern will face is their lack of size. They have 6’10” Anthony Green and 6’8” Tomas Murphy, but they typically go with a small ball four in Bolden Brace, and neither of the former two are world beaters on either side of the ball. They don’t protect the rim particularly well, only getting 2.2 blocks per game, and struggle to grab rebounds, ranking 328 in the nation with 31.8 a game, which is actually better than Washington and North Dakota State of the tournament teams. Still, if they face a team with great defensive wings, they can’t rely on their post players for scoring, and a team with a star big or lots of size would crush them.
My Thoughts
I’m in on this team. Their offense is excellent, as is star Vasa Pusica, and they can light it up from behind the arc with their hot shooting, like they did against Hofstra in the CAA Final. They showed their potential with their victory over Bama, and that came without defensive stopper Shawn Occeus, who recently returned from injury and was excellent against Hofstra. While they lack size, I think they’ve got the small ball capabilities to give a team problems, and I think they’ve got real upset potential in the tournament.
- Yale (22-7, 10-4)
Coach: James Jones
How They Got Here
The Bulldogs were great this season, taking down high majors like Miami in non-conference play, and starting off Ivy League play 8-1. While they hit some road bumps towards the end of the regular season, they rebounded in the Ivy League tournament, knocking off Princeton and Harvard on their way to winning the auto bid.
Strengths
- Unlike a typical Ivy League schools, the Bulldogs have a guy who will likely get drafted next year in Miye Oni. The 6’6” wing is a legit star, averaging 17.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.5 assists a game this season. He’s a more than capable shooter, making 38.6% of his threes on the year, and he is also an excellent finisher at the rim. An explosive athlete, he can take his man off the bounce as well as elevate to get to the basket, and Ivy League opponents had no answer for him throughout the year. He scored 30 points three times in league play, and averaged 18.2 in conference. He didn’t just do it against bad competition though, scoring 29 against Miami and posting a 12/9/5 stat line against Duke. You’re going to hear his name a lot in the lead up to their opening game, and don’t be shocked if he shines in the tournament.
- Oni is just one part of an excellent Yale offense. The Bulldogs are top 50 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and are incredible at getting easy layups. Sure, having Oni helps, but they are fourteenth in two point field goal percentage at 56.1% as a team, and are sixth in field goal percentage at 49.8%. Point guard Alex Copeland and center Jordan Bruner are excellent players in their own right, each scoring double digits. Plus, they are supplemented by shooters like Azar Swain, who is making 42.3% of his shots from deep on the season. They play fast, getting good looks quickly, especially in transition, and no team wants to see their offense.
Weaknesses
- Yale struggles to guard on the defensive end. While they do a good job defending the arc, teams are only shooting 31.2% from behind the arc against the Bulldogs, they just aren’t very effective, coming in just under 150 in adjusted defensive efficiency. It’s not a bad mark by any means, but that isn’t good enough to stand up to a high major that they will have to face. Oni and Bruner are the only plus defenders, both protecting the rim well. Both of them are good athletes, but the rest of the team is a lot more like what you’re expecting out of Yale. They will need an inspired defensive performance to get past the first round.
My Thoughts
There’s a chance that Yale will have the best player on the court in their first game, and that would be absolutely massive. Miye Oni is very good not just for an Ivy League player, but for anywhere in the country, and there’s a reason NBA have been stopping by New Haven. With a great offense around him, the potential is certainly there for an upset, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see that come to fruition.
- Old Dominion (26-8, 13-5)
Coach: Jeff Jones
How They Got Here
The Monarchs had a successful season, taking down multiple notable teams. Not only did they beat VCU at home and Syracuse at home, but they were great in Conference USA play, including doing well in their new “pod system” at the end of the regular season, going 2-2 against the best the conference had to offer before winning the tournament with multiple clutch shots.
Strengths
- The Monarchs lock up on the defensive end. They play at a very slow pace, and they make sure their opponents have to use the majority of the shot clock with their stout defense, starting out on the perimeter. Ahmad Caver and BJ Stith are good, if not great, on both sides of the ball, and Xavier Green and Jesse Wade are legit stoppers who can take on tough assignments. They also have two 7 footers, Elbert Robinson and Dajour Dickens, protecting the rim, so there is certainly a strong defensive identity, and the numbers reflect that. They are top 50 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and opponents are shooting 39.1% from the field, ninth lowest in the nation. They do an especially job inside the arc, with teams shooting just 43.5% inside the arc, which is seventh lowest in the nation, blocking 4.6 shots a game, 35th in the nation, and 38.9 rebounds, twenty fifth in the nation. The defensive ability of this team is up there with the best in the nation, and they can win a game on this side of the ball.
Weaknesses
- On the other side of the ball, they can struggle a bit. They are 216th in the nation, and it’s a weird team offensively. They shoot 35.3% from three, which isn’t that bad, and they have two players, BJ Stith and Ahmad Caver, averaging more than 16.5 points a game. The problems can inside the arc, where they are awful. They make just 44.5% of their twos, which is 340th in the country. It’s honestly baffling that a team can be that bad around the rim with two seven footers, but here they are. They have been relying on big shots late to win games, and I don’t know how well that will hold up in the tournament.
My Thoughts
The Monarchs have a senior laden group and a strong defense, which is a great combination for March. Ahmad Caver and BJ Stith are both really great scorers, and their defense will give even high majors problems, like Syracuse. Like I’ve mentioned before, the slower pace allows them to stick in games that other teams would fall out of since there are less possessions overall and that gives them a huge advantage over some other teams that like to push the pace. I’m not totally sold on their offense, 44.5%? Really?, but I think they’ll be in a position to win a game thanks to that defense.
- Georgia State (24-9, 13-5)
Coach: Ron Hunter
How They Got Here
You may remember the Panthers from this all-time March moment, but the Panthers have been a consistently good program that is in its second straight tournament. Against a tough non-conference schedule, they managed to beat Georgia and Alabama, as well as good mid-majors like East Tennessee and Saint Bonaventure, before winning the Sun Belt regular season at 13-5 on the last day. They then won both of their tournament games, locking up their spot in the tournament once again.
Strengths
- The Panthers have one of the top shooting teams in the country, making 38.4% of their shots from behind the arc, the seventeenth best mark in the country. They have three players, Jeff Thomas, Devin Mitchell, and Malik Benlevi, shooting over 40% from deep, which is pretty good if you ask me. Their floor spacing allows star point guard D’Marcus Simonds to attack the rim with reckless abandon, and he is excellent at it. He is scoring 18.4 points a game, and you may remember his 24 point performance against Cincinnati in last year’s tournament. Even their non-shooters are making shots, on admittedly very low volume, and they can do a lot on the offensive end thanks to that elite level shooting.
Weaknesses
- They play with 6’6” Malik Benlevi at the five almost exclusively, and he is normally the tallest player on the court for the Panthers. In a shocking twist, they struggle to get rebounds. They are pulling down just 32.8 a game, while their opponents get 38.9. A differential of over 6 on the glass is not something you want to be on the wrong side of, but that is where they sit heading into the tournament. The lack of size means teams do well in the paint against them, shooting 50.5% on shots inside the arc, and they will have to hope they can avoid a team with a dominant big man if they want to win a game.
My Thoughts
I think this is a team that no one is really talking about that can give someone a lot of trouble. Simonds is a high major level scorer, and he is tough to stop when he’s getting downhill. The way they space the floor around him is just so effective that you can’t help or else they will make a three or attack a hasty closeout. Plus, they run a funky 1-3-1 matchup zone that can create a lot of problems for opposing teams who haven’t seen it before. As long as they avoid the Twin Towers Rockets, I think they can win a game.
- Northern Kentucky (26-8, 13-5)
Coach: John Brannen
How They Got Here
Northern Kentucky was good this year, sitting at 10-3 entering conference play, and proceeded to play very well in the Horizon League. Despite losing four of seven late in conference play, they recovered, winning their last five games, including all three in the league tournament to secure their bid.
Strengths
- The Norse, what a dope nickname by the way, figure to be a problem to match up with on the offensive end. They have big man Drew McDonald, who won’t blow you away at any point, but you’ll look up and he has 18 and 8 all of the sudden. He is just as effective in the low post as he is at the three point line, shooting 51.7% on twos and 40.6% on threes, and the team as a whole is good from behind the arc. Tyler Sharpe and Zaynah Robinson stand out as knockdown shooters on the team, which makes 36.4% of its threes. They also share the ball very well, led by point guard Jalen Tate, and the team assists on 62.1% of their made field goals. This is an offense that no one will want to have to face.
Weaknesses
- I don’t really know how to describe this, but they don’t really have a glaring weakness. I think their weakness is just the fact they don’t really have any stand out strengths, as their offense is just OK in the grand scheme of things, ranking 77th in the nation in offensive efficiency, and they do a good, not great, job on the defensive end and the glass. I don’t think that’s an effective strategy for a mid-major. Like they are the type of team that won’t beat themselves. The problem is, they are playing a team that is better than they are, so they need to do more than that, and I just don’t see that from the Norse.
My Thoughts
Honestly, just not that impressed with Northern Kentucky. Like they are very solid, especially for a mid-major, and Drew McDonald is a top tier player, but they just don’t have the it factor that the best Cinderella teams possess. They don’t do anything really poorly, but also nothing really well, so they will have to get matched up with an inconsistent high major who has a poor game if they hope to win.
- Montana (26-8, 16-4)
Coach: Travis DeCuire
How They Got Here
The Grizzlies took on some other top mid major programs during the non-conference, winning games against Georgia State and South Dakota State, while falling to Georgia Southern, Creighton, UC Irvine, and Arizona. That prepared them well for Big Sky play, as after starting slowly at 3-2, they rattled off a ten game winning streak, and finished atop the conference at 16-4, and would win all three of the Big Sky Tournament games to go dancing.
Strengths
- The Grizzlies have one of the best offenses in the country. They have a field goal percentage of 49.7%, and they can score both from deep and in the paint. They play super guard heavy lineups, and that has led to some excellent shooting, making 38.1% of their threes. They have Oregon State transfer Kendall Manuel gunning away from deep, ranking in the top 100 in the country by making 42.7% of his threes. Fellow guards Michael Oguine and Ahmaad Rorie can also shoot it well, each making over 36% from deep, but they are much better at attacking the rim, as if Sayeed Pridgett, who almost plays like a center with his post skills despite being 6’5”. They make 56.3% of their shots from inside the arc, thirteenth best in the nation, and have the ability to score in a variety of ways.
Weaknesses
- Montana has a tendency to leak buckets on the other end of the court. They are 161st in adjusted defensive efficiency, and teams have very little problem scoring against their defense. They don’t have any plus defenders, and they often get beat in isolation situations. Plus, with center Jamar Akoh injured, Pridgett is playing a lot of minutes in the post, and he can’t guard post players because of his lack of size and strength, and starting center Bobby Moorehead is more of a stretch four type player who is a liability defensively. They will need to face another very small team, or else they will get torn apart on the interior, and quick guards would be a massive problem, as they could drive right past some lax one on one defense.
My Thoughts
The Grizzlies have a really scary team for all high majors to play against. They have a ton of seniors, and some high quality players who made the tournament last season. Plus, they have the ability to adapt, as we saw after Jamar Akoh went down to injury, and that could prove useful in the tournament. I think they could play Bracket Buster in the first round.
- Colgate (24-10, 13-5)
Coach: Matt Langel
How They Got Here
The Raiders had a rocky start to the season, sitting at 13-10 and 5-5 in the Patriot League in early February. They wouldn’t lose again, and have won 11 straight games, including beating second place Bucknell twice during that stretch.
Strengths
- The Raiders have an excellent offense. Checking in at 63rd in adjusted offensive efficiency, they do quite a few things well on the offensive end, notably shooting it very well from behind the arc. They make 39.1% of their threes on the year, and they have five shooters who make at least 36% of their threes. Colgate has primarily been led by two players: Northwestern transfer big man Rapolas Ivanauskas and point guard Jordan Burns. Ivanauskas was a massive problem in the Patriot League, winning Player of the Year after scoring 16.4 points and grabbing 7.9 rebounds a game. He can shoot it from deep, making a cool 43.3% of his 97 shots from behind the arc, and is excellent operating out of the high post, where he can make plays with the dribble, shot, or pass. As for Burns, he averaged 15.8 points and 5.8 assists, and directed one of the prettiest offenses in the country beautifully. They get assists on 57.9% of the makes, and Burns is a big reason why. They have the requisite spacing and star power you look for in a good mid-major, so the Raiders are a threat offensively.
Weaknesses
- Unlike a team like Yale, who has some really great athletes, the Raiders are below average athletically, and therefore defensively. There is no one I would classify as an above average defender on their roster, and I still remember how bad they looked on that end when they played Syracuse earlier in the year. They really struggled on the glass in that game, and that could be another problem for them against a bigger and more athletic team than what they have been facing in the Patriot League. They are outside the top 200 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and it seems unlikely to me that they will be able to stop whoever they play in the first round.
My Thoughts
I kind of love Colgate. Watching them against Bucknell, their scoring ability really wowed me, especially from behind the arc, and Rapolas Ivanauskas and Jordan Burns are some of the better mid-major players in the tournament. They have their issues, with their defense being average on a good day, and I think they will compete with the big boys for at least a half.
- Bradley (20-14, 9-9)
Coach: Brian Wardle
How They Got Here
Things weren’t looking good for Bradley just two months ago. They were 0-5 in the Missouri Valley, despite beating SMU and Penn State, they had dropped games to IUPUI and Eastern Illinois, and they were struggling. From there, they went 12-4 to close out the season, including winning 9 of their last 11 games to propel them into the NCAA Tournament. They won three thrillers in the Missouri Valley tournament, winning those games by 8 combined points, and capturing the Missouri Valley title despite being the five seed.
Strengths
- The Braves have gotten things done this season on the defensive end of the floor. They play at a very slow pace, with their defensive possessions taking the seventh longest in the nation. They do a good job in ball screen defense, and that keeps their opponents out of the paint and forces them into tough shots. They hold opponents to 46.4% from inside the arc, and it’s often tough to score against the Braves in the paint. It’s why opponents only shoot 41.1% from the field against them, the lowest mark in the Missouri Valley. Their defense is one of the stingiest in the nation, so they will be a tough out.
Weaknesses
- Like seemingly every team that is good on the defensive end, they suck offensively. Much like Old Dominion, they are weirdly decent from deep, making 36.8% of their shots from three point range. However, they make just 46.7% inside the arc, and have two players than can do much of anything on the offensive end. Point guard Darrell Brown leads the team in scoring and shoots well from deep, making 43.9% from behind the arc, and big man Elijah Childs is effective in the post. Those two will need to have huge games for the Braves to get out of the first round.
My Thoughts
Not a team I like at all. They don’t really do anything that well, and had a hot run at the end of the year to win a weak Missouri Valley. They are probably going to be a low seed, and I don’t see a way for them to beat a bigger name school in the tournament with a pretty dreadful offense.
- Abilene Christian (27-6, 14-4)
Coach: Joe Golding
How They Got Here
Coming out of the Southland, the Wildcats started 11-2 after a pretty bland non-conference schedule, playing four Division II teams, and only one high major, Texas Tech. They did well in Southland play, although they did have two starters, Jalone Friday and BJ Maxwell, kicked off the team late in conference play, but they won sixth straight with them gone, so maybe that was a good move.
Strengths
- The Wildcats are fueled by a strong defense that does two things very well: shoot from deep and create turnovers. Despite not having one player who stands out from behind the arc, they shoot 38.3% from deep on the year, and while that isn’t their main source of offense, it is pretty effective when they do turn to it. They also create havoc defensively by forcing turnovers. They rank eight in defensive turnover percentage at 23.4%, and are fourteenth in the nation with 8.7 steals a game. No one exemplifies this better than Peyton Ricks, who leads the team with a 40.5% on his threes and is second with 1.6 steals a game. They want you to be sloppy with the ball, and a team that struggles with turnovers could have a tough time.
Weaknesses
- Abilene Christian struggled on the offensive end before they kicked Friday and Maxwell off the team, and they certainly haven’t gotten better since. They are 186th in offensive efficiency, and outside of shooting well, they do nothing well. I should also mentioned that despite shooting well from behind the arc, they only take 34.2% of their shots from three, one of the lowest marks in the nation, and they aren’t fully taking advantage of one of their biggest schools. They struggle inside the arc, shooting 49.8%, and I think they should just start jacking up threes, since they will likely need that scoring output to win a game in March, but it doesn’t look like they will.
My Thoughts
I don’t particularly like this team. As a likely 15 or 16 seed, forcing turnovers seems like a bad thing to specialize in, since the elite teams they are facing in the first likely won’t succumb to their pressure. I also don’t get why they place less of an emphasis on playing through their bigs and try to explore what they have in terms of shooting since they have proven to be effective in small sample sizes. Still, it seems highly unlikely they win a game.
- Gardner Webb (23-11, 20-6)
Coach: Tim Craft
How They Got Here
The Runnin’ Bulldogs had a strange season. They started off 2-5 before winning eight straight games heading into Big South play, including wins over Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. They then struggled once more, opening conference play at 2-4, but went 8-2 down the stretch in the regular season. They were the four seed in the Big South Tournament, but managed to win games at Campbell and Radford in the conference tournament to secure their spot in the Big Dance.
Strengths
- The team has been fairly effective on the offensive end this season. While they rank outside of the top 100 in adjusted offensive efficiency, they shoot it quite well on the season at 48.8%, fourteenth best in the nation. They shoot pretty well from deep as well, making 37.7% of their shots from deep, and they have two legitimately good offensive players in David Efianayi and Josh Perez. The former is a senior guard who led the team with 18.3 points per game, and shoots it very well, making 41.3% of his threes. Perez is just a freshman, but was one of the best players in the Big South, who averaged 15.1 points, 5.8 rebounds, and assists, checking in second on the team in points and the leader in the other two categories. Those two could legitimately give their opponents problems, and they won’t be fun to face at all.
Weaknesses
- The tallest player in the Runnin’ Bulldogs rotation is 6’6”. That’s a problem when you likely have to play against one seed who probably has multiple wings taller than that. They aren’t just small in the front court, as the whole team is the eighth smallest in the nation in terms of average height. While DJ Laster can create matchup problems for slow footed bigs, they create just as many for him on the other end. They also predictably struggle on the glass, only getting 34.4 rebounds a game, and that lack of size will almost certainly come back to bite them.
My Thoughts
I sort of like the Runnin’ Bulldogs. If they end up in Dayton, I like their chances to win that game. David Efianayi and Josh Perez are both very talented players, and they knocked off some power conference programs this year. I doubt they beat any sort of one or two seed, but should they be in the first four, they have solid potential.
- Iona (17-15, 12-6)
Coach: Tim Cluess
How They Got Here
The Gaels have repped the MAAC in the NCAA Tournament for the past three seasons, and for a second, it looked like they might not do that this season. They started off 2-9 on the year, and in early February, they were sitting a 5-6 in the conference and had lost 4 straight games. From there, they won 10 straight games to close out the season, including winning their fourth straight MAAC Tournament Championship.
Strengths
- The Gaels play at the 45th fastest pace in the country, and they use that to propel their offense, which is 134th in the country. Senior point guard Rickey McGill spurs on the offense, pushing the ball at every opportunity and plays a large role in their success. He averages 15.5 points and 5 assists, and alongside EJ Crawford, averaging 17.9 a game, provide the main scoring punch for Iona. They are at their best in the open court, as the pace would indicate, and in the half court, they still attempt to get to them rim with the same ferocity as they do on the break. They like to drive and dish, as evidenced by them taking 43.6% of their shots from behind the arc, and their fast pace offense could be a problem for a team that likes to play slower.
Weaknesses
- With their fast pace, you already know they will be a sieve defensively. Even for the MAAC, they weren’t good on the defensive end, finishing seventh in the conference and 275th in the nation in defensive efficiency. They play some zone, and it isn’t very effective, with teams getting into the middle and Iona seemingly having no answer. Since they leak out, they give up a ton of offensive rebounds, 11 per game to be exact, and they quite often have no answers on the defensive end for whatever their opposition is doing, and typically relied on outscoring them to win games, and somehow, I doubt they do that against a one seed.
My Thoughts
We’ve been here with the Gaels before, with a quick pace and good offense and not much else, and this team isn’t as good as some of the teams we’ve seen in the past. The MAAC as a whole was down this year, and they still couldn’t win the regular season, and while they are hot right now, I think they get blown out by one of the highest seeds in the tournament in the first game.
- Prairie View A&M (22-12, 15-1)
Coach: Byron Smith
How They Got Here
They won the SWC, which is consistently one of the worst conferences in the country, both in the regular season, losing one conference game the entire time, and all three of their tournament games. They’ve only lost once in 2019, and they look like they are very hot.
Strengths
- They play a high octane, in your face style of play, playing at the 34th fast tempo in America. They especially do so on the defensive end, where they will press and press and press, looking to force turnovers and create easy baskets for themselves. They rank second in the nation in turnover percentage, 24.7%, and twelfth in steals per game, 8.82. They use those steals to get easy transition buckets, and when they don’t get one, they tend to give up a quick bucket and sprint down onto the offensive end.
Weaknesses
- They really only do a good job of creating turnovers. They are 205 in adjusted defensive efficiency and 227 in offensive efficiency, and wow is their offense tough. They shoot a Saint Louis-like 31.4% from three, and they rely very heavily on those steals to create points. They also have no size, with 6’7” Devonte Patterson playing center for the Panthers, and they get killed on the boards, as well as lacking rim protection. They really look like they are in a bad spot.
My Thoughts
The Panthers are probably not going to win a game. They have an alright defense, but they don’t really do a lot of other stuff well, and a good team in the SWAC doesn’t count for much. Look for them to drop out of the tournament in their first game no matter what.
- Fairleigh Dickinson (20-13, 12-6)
Coach: Greg Herenda
How They Got Here
The Knights are the representative from the NEC, and after starting 1-4 in conference play, they lost just twice more all season and rolled through the NEC Tournament, which they got to play at home thanks to being the top seed.
Strengths
- For a team that is going to be a 16 seed, the Knights have an elite skill: their shooting. They are fifth in the nation in three point percentage, making 40.5% of their threes on the year. They are led by Darnell Edge, who 16.4 points a game, and can shoot it a little bit as well, knocking down 46.9% of his threes on the year, which is 24th best in the nation. Both Jahlil Jenkins and Xzavier Malone-Key making roughly 35% of their threes as well, they have some serious firepower from deep, and they are a team you absolutely have to get a hand up on.
Weaknesses
- They are lucky they don’t miss very often, since they struggle to rebound the ball. They only get 32.9 a game, and they are especially woeful on the defensive glass. Opposing teams are grabbing 11.1 of their missed shots per game, and it’s hard to see that number changing much as they face bigger players in the NCAA Tournament. They will likely struggle mightily on the boards.
My Thoughts
Not gonna lie, would not want to play against the Knights in the tournament. Whenever you’ve got a team that shoots it like they do, there is a chance they just absolutely nuclear from behind the arc and lay waste to whoever lays in their path. While they probably won’t win a game in the tournament outside of Dayton, where I love their chances, there is always the chance they get hot from three point range and scare a high seed.
- North Dakota State (18-15, 9-7)
Coach: Dave Richman
How They Got Here
After South Dakota State got upset in their first conference tournament game, the Summit League needed a representative, and the Bison stepped up. They didn’t have a great season, mostly beating up on the bottom of the conference, but they did close the year 9-3 and are playing well at the moment.
Strengths
- I hope you like threes, because the Bison are taking them at a high rate. They shoot 48.2% of their shots from behind the arc, and eight of their twelve rotation guys have taken more threes than twos on the year. They make 36.8% of those threes, and Tyree Eady and Jared Samuelson are their two biggest threats, each making over 40% from behind the arc on very high volume, and Samuelson checks in at 31st in the nation with a 45.9% three point percentage. Don’t let them get hot, or you’ll regret it.
Weaknesses
- North Dakota State is absolutely atrocious defensively. They are 278th in defensive efficiency, and do very little even close to average on that side of the ball. Teams shoot 46.1% from the field against their defense, and it’s equally as bad from inside and outside the arc, at 52.9% and 36.6% respectively. Additionally, they rarely force turnovers, sitting with a defensive turnover rate of 14.6%, sixth lowest in the country. You can really abuse them in the post, where sophomore Rocky Kreuser struggles to stop anyone. They certainly won’t be winning any games with their defensive merits.
My Thoughts
See my thoughts on Fairleigh Dickeson.
- North Carolina Central (18-15, 10-6)
Coach: LeVelle Moton
How They Got Here
The Eagles are in their third straight NCAA Tournament, and are making their third straight trip to Dayton. They got hot in the MEAC Tournament, erasing any thoughts of a disappointing year up until that point, and they are back in the Big Dance.
Strengths
- The Eagles rely heavily on center Raasean Davis, and with good reason. The Kent State transfer averaged 14.6 points and 8.9 rebounds a game this year, and their entire offense is based around getting him the ball. They don’t take many threes, instead favoring screens to get the big man open for layups. They really thrive on the glass, where they grab 37.4 boards a game, tied for 74th in the country with teams like Florida State and Nevada. They have some other solid bigs to pair with Davis to really control the glass, but he is the centerpiece of the team.
Weaknesses
- Relying on a center who can only really post up is the antithesis of what modern offenses are trying to do, and that shows when watching NC Central. They are 301st in adjusted offensive efficiency, and they really struggle with guard play, which might explain why they are feeding big men at every opportunity. They have the tenth highest turnover percentage of any team in the country at 22.9%, and they can’t shoot, making just 31.2% of their threes this season. The Eagles offense is pretty bad, and I don’t know if it is good enough to even win a game in the First Four.
My Thoughts
This team is probably headed to Dayton, and I think they could win a game there, although I wouldn’t count on it. While their size and rebounding is really good, especially for a team in
the First Four, but I don’t think their offense is anywhere near a point where they can take down outside of their skill level.
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