First Round
1. North Carolina vs 16. Iona
Get your popcorn ready everyone. The Tar Heels play at the fastest pace of any team in the tournament, and Iona hasn't looked like stopping anyone this season, but they will run in transition as well, with Ricky McGill just going whenever he gets the ball. There's not much to see here, with North Carolina just being better at pretty much everything and a pretty significant size advantage. Still, it'll be worth watching just to see all of the points and North Carolina put up close to 100.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 99%
Gambling: North Carolina -22, over 166
8. Utah State vs 9. Washington
This one seems like very easy to me. Utah State has been playing excellent basketball for most of 2019, and Washington has hit a few road bumps after dominating most of the Pac-12 season, and any team that loses to California is very worrisome. Craig Smith has been one of the top coaches in the country this season, and I trust him to have a way to beat the zone. They already share the ball well, and that should work very well against this team. I also don't trust anyone outside of Jaylen Nowell to be able to score for the Huskies. Neemias Queta should be able to put the clamps on Noah Dickerson and eat up the offensive glass, and Sam Merrill can light it up from deep, so I think the Aggies win fairly comfortably.
My Pick: Utah State
Confidence: 75%
Gambling: Utah State -3
5. Auburn vs 12. New Mexico State
This is one of the most interesting games of the tournament. The Aggies have a super deep rotation, playing 13 guys in most games, and a very good offense, especially taking care of the ball, which will be key against an Auburn team that thrives at forcing turnovers. The biggest advantage they have is their ability to rebound, ranking eighth in offensive rebounding percentage and fourth on the defensive end. Meanwhile, Auburn is 331st in defensive rebounding percentage, and while Auburn has a size advantage, the Aggies play with a lot of hustle and grit, and have high major talent on the roster. When Auburn is clicking, they are tough to beat, they are coming off of an SEC Tournament win, but something about this matchup that screams upset to me, so I'm going with the Aggies
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 51%
Gambling: New Mexico State +6 and moneyline
4. Kansas vs 13. Northeastern
An underachieving Kansas team against a top class mid-major who spaces the floor well? Sign me, and the public I bet, up for an upset. However, before we all jump all over the Huskies, I think it's worth noting a few things. First off, Kansas is still talented, with Dedric Lawson and Devon Dotson being pretty easily the two best players in this game. Northeastern has absolutely no answer for Lawson, and he could put up like 30 points in this game. Still, this Huskies team is great offensively, and Bill Coen showed off his coaching acumen when he carved up Hofstra's zone in the CAA Final. Plus, Vasa Pusica and Justin Roland can really shoot the ball, and the team is at 38.8% from three. This will be a very close game, and although Kansas has some advantages, especially on the glass, I will say we get a buzzer beater from Pusica, and the Huskies win.
My Pick: Northeastern
Confidence: 55%
Gambling: Northeastern +6.5 and moneyline
6. Iowa State vs 11. Ohio State
Oho State played over their heads for most of the season, and it's all started to fall apart for them recently, losing six of their last eight games, while Iowa State followed up losing their last three regular season games with a Big 12 Tournament championship. I honestly have no idea whether or not Iowa State shows up in this game, and if they do, they've got a good shot at winning this game. They can shoot it very well and have multiple players who can score it, and rank ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency, but when they are off, they are pretty bad. I don't think Ohio State is all that talented, so I'm going to go with the Cyclones, but the variance in their performance is certainly worrisome.
My Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 65%
Gambling: Iowa State -5.5
3. Houston vs 14. Georgia State
This is a very sneaky game for an upset. Georgia State is very good, and Ron Hunter is running a system that really maximizes their talent, with a lot of floor spacing around D'Marcus Simonds, who is one of the best slashers in the nation. The one thing that Houston does really well on the defensive end is challenge shots, especially in the paint, and I think Corey Davis can do a good job on Simonds. Houston has a lack of size and a tendency to over help, leaving players for open shots, and that is a good matchup for the Panthers. I still think Houston pulls it out late, but I expect it to be a close game
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 65%
Gambling: Georgia State +12.5
7. Wofford vs 10. Seton Hall
This game features one of the most fun player vs player matches in the entire tournament with Fletcher Magee from Wofford taking on Myles Powell of Seton Hall. I am very excited to watch these guys just trade buckets. Both teams are playing well at the moment, Seton Hall making the Big East final and Wofford not losing since a game against Mississippi State in December. Here's my biggest thing with this one: I think Markus Howard has given Seton Hall a great blueprint for guarding Magee. The Pirates beat Marquette twice in the March, and they did a really good job of keeping Howard in check, including just 6 points in their first matchup. Quincy McKnight has the length to bother Magee, and they did an excellent job of switching screens to keep him from having open shots. I think that, partnered with no real matchup for Myles Powell, will be enough for Seton Hall to win a very close game.
My Pick: Seton Hall
Confidence: 55%
Gambling: Seton Hall +2.5
2. Kentucky vs 15. Abilene Christian
I don't really have a ton to say about this game. Kentucky is just quite simply a lot better than the other Wildcats, and Abilene Christian struggles at defending the rim. They do shoot it well from deep, which could cause some funky results, especially against the spread, but in their one game against a good team, they lost by 34 to Texas Tech. I feel pretty good about saying Kentucky will win this game.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 95%
Gambling: Over 132
Second Round
1. North Carolina vs 8. Utah State
This is going to be a really fun game. These are two really good offensive teams, and it features some excellent coaches as they look to outscheme the other. The key will be the fast break, as UNC puts on a clinic with their secondary break, and Utah State will need to keep them out of transition for most of the game. One thing to watch is rebounding, as North Carolina is one of the best teams in the nation at getting to the offensive glass. However, the Aggies really own the defensive glass, and if they can limit Luke Maye and Garrison Brooks from getting offensive boards, that gives them a really good chance. I still think North Carolina has the three best players in the game, and that should be enough for the victory, but I would probably predict a single digit margin of victory.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 65%
12. New Mexico State vs 13. Northeastern
We've now ended up with a 12-13 matchup in the second round, and this should be an interesting matchup between two good mid majors. I just really like the way Northeastern plays on the offensive end, and I think they are good enough on the boards, especially defensively, to take the Aggies out of what they want to do there, and that might be the decider. I also think Vasa Pusica is the best player on the court, and I'm going to say the Huskies advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
My Pick: Northeastern
Confidence: 55%
6. Iowa State vs 3. Houston
This is a classic offense vs defense battle, and I feel very strongly about this one. While I normally like offense to take down defense in these scenarios, I do not trust the consistency of Iowa State at all. While they won their last three, it'll be four if they get to this point, but they were 3-6 heading into the conference tournament, and any prolonged winning streak has typically led to a losing streak for the Cyclones. Add in the fact that they are playing an excellent defensive team, especially one that allows 27.6% shooting from three, and I don't think they win. Plus, I think Houston's guards can absolutely match up very well with Iowa State's on both ends, and I really like the Cougars in this spot. However, if Iowa State can make their shots, then watch out, because they can beat just about anyone when they are clicking offensively, and could make a deep run, although I don't think that happens.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 65%
10. Seton Hall vs 2. Kentucky
In a rematch of a game from earlier this season at Madison Square Garden, which the Pirates won, we get to see two teams that I think have improved a lot since then. Myles Powell has emerged as one of the best scorers in the country for Seton Hall, and Kentucky has begun to figure out their rotation as well as how to best play together. I think this is a very different team than the one that lost a few months ago, and I think their biggest improvement has been defensively. They have turned into a team that can lock down teams, especially on the perimeter with Ashton Hagans, Tyler Herro, and Keldon Johnson, and I think both Hagans with torment Quincy McKnight, the primary ball handler for the Pirates, and really force turnovers. Beyond that, the way Kentucky rebounds, especially on the offensive end, grabbing 11.6 a game, with be tough for Seton Hall to deal with, since they were in the bottom half of the Big East in rebounding. I don't think their front court can match up with Kentucky's and I feel pretty strongly that the Wildcats take this one.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 75%
Sweet Sixteen
1. North Carolina vs 13. Northeastern
Listen, this one will be fairly straight forward. Northeastern just doesn't have the defensive acumen, especially in the front court, to guard North Carolina. I think Luke Maye and Coby White have big games here, dominating smaller players that are attempting to guard them. As for what Northeastern can do, I think they'll be able to hit some threes throughout the game, but I don't really see much of a route to a win for them against a team that does what they do, score, just better, and they are much better where Northeastern struggles, so I like the Tar Heels.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 80%
3. Houston vs 2. Kentucky
This game is going to be one of the best in the tournament if it gets to this point. I think both of these teams are incredible, especially defensively, and I think the game comes down to who can execute best on the offensive end. To me, that is Kentucky, mostly because of their front court. I don't know who matches up with PJ Washington for the Cougars, and I think he and Reid Travis can have big games in this one. Houston will run Nate Hinton and Cedric Alley out at the four consistently, and neither one can even kind of match up Washington, and Houston will have to play with two bigs, which isn't what they want to do. I also like how Herro and Johnson can match up with Corey Davis and Armani Brooks on the defensive end, so I'm going Kentucky.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 75%
Elite Eight
1. North Carolina vs 2. Kentucky
Another rematch for the Wildcats, this time one that they beat, in North Carolina. They took them down in Chicago during late December, and the big story of that game was Ashton Hagans. The point guard really played well, especially defensively, forcing 8 steals, to lead Kentucky to a win. However, Tar Heels point guard Coby White has improved as much as any player in the country this year, and I think he will be significantly better this time around. The most intriguing matchup to me is Cameron Johnson against Keldon Johnson and PJ Washington. I don't know how well Johnson will be able to do against two guys with length that can bother him, and I don't think he can guard either one defensively. I think that because of that, Kentucky gets revenge for the last time these two met in the Elite Eight, and pull out a close game.
1. North Carolina vs 16. Iona
Get your popcorn ready everyone. The Tar Heels play at the fastest pace of any team in the tournament, and Iona hasn't looked like stopping anyone this season, but they will run in transition as well, with Ricky McGill just going whenever he gets the ball. There's not much to see here, with North Carolina just being better at pretty much everything and a pretty significant size advantage. Still, it'll be worth watching just to see all of the points and North Carolina put up close to 100.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 99%
Gambling: North Carolina -22, over 166
8. Utah State vs 9. Washington
This one seems like very easy to me. Utah State has been playing excellent basketball for most of 2019, and Washington has hit a few road bumps after dominating most of the Pac-12 season, and any team that loses to California is very worrisome. Craig Smith has been one of the top coaches in the country this season, and I trust him to have a way to beat the zone. They already share the ball well, and that should work very well against this team. I also don't trust anyone outside of Jaylen Nowell to be able to score for the Huskies. Neemias Queta should be able to put the clamps on Noah Dickerson and eat up the offensive glass, and Sam Merrill can light it up from deep, so I think the Aggies win fairly comfortably.
My Pick: Utah State
Confidence: 75%
Gambling: Utah State -3
5. Auburn vs 12. New Mexico State
This is one of the most interesting games of the tournament. The Aggies have a super deep rotation, playing 13 guys in most games, and a very good offense, especially taking care of the ball, which will be key against an Auburn team that thrives at forcing turnovers. The biggest advantage they have is their ability to rebound, ranking eighth in offensive rebounding percentage and fourth on the defensive end. Meanwhile, Auburn is 331st in defensive rebounding percentage, and while Auburn has a size advantage, the Aggies play with a lot of hustle and grit, and have high major talent on the roster. When Auburn is clicking, they are tough to beat, they are coming off of an SEC Tournament win, but something about this matchup that screams upset to me, so I'm going with the Aggies
My Pick: New Mexico State
Confidence: 51%
Gambling: New Mexico State +6 and moneyline
4. Kansas vs 13. Northeastern
An underachieving Kansas team against a top class mid-major who spaces the floor well? Sign me, and the public I bet, up for an upset. However, before we all jump all over the Huskies, I think it's worth noting a few things. First off, Kansas is still talented, with Dedric Lawson and Devon Dotson being pretty easily the two best players in this game. Northeastern has absolutely no answer for Lawson, and he could put up like 30 points in this game. Still, this Huskies team is great offensively, and Bill Coen showed off his coaching acumen when he carved up Hofstra's zone in the CAA Final. Plus, Vasa Pusica and Justin Roland can really shoot the ball, and the team is at 38.8% from three. This will be a very close game, and although Kansas has some advantages, especially on the glass, I will say we get a buzzer beater from Pusica, and the Huskies win.
My Pick: Northeastern
Confidence: 55%
Gambling: Northeastern +6.5 and moneyline
6. Iowa State vs 11. Ohio State
Oho State played over their heads for most of the season, and it's all started to fall apart for them recently, losing six of their last eight games, while Iowa State followed up losing their last three regular season games with a Big 12 Tournament championship. I honestly have no idea whether or not Iowa State shows up in this game, and if they do, they've got a good shot at winning this game. They can shoot it very well and have multiple players who can score it, and rank ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency, but when they are off, they are pretty bad. I don't think Ohio State is all that talented, so I'm going to go with the Cyclones, but the variance in their performance is certainly worrisome.
My Pick: Iowa State
Confidence: 65%
Gambling: Iowa State -5.5
3. Houston vs 14. Georgia State
This is a very sneaky game for an upset. Georgia State is very good, and Ron Hunter is running a system that really maximizes their talent, with a lot of floor spacing around D'Marcus Simonds, who is one of the best slashers in the nation. The one thing that Houston does really well on the defensive end is challenge shots, especially in the paint, and I think Corey Davis can do a good job on Simonds. Houston has a lack of size and a tendency to over help, leaving players for open shots, and that is a good matchup for the Panthers. I still think Houston pulls it out late, but I expect it to be a close game
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 65%
Gambling: Georgia State +12.5
7. Wofford vs 10. Seton Hall
This game features one of the most fun player vs player matches in the entire tournament with Fletcher Magee from Wofford taking on Myles Powell of Seton Hall. I am very excited to watch these guys just trade buckets. Both teams are playing well at the moment, Seton Hall making the Big East final and Wofford not losing since a game against Mississippi State in December. Here's my biggest thing with this one: I think Markus Howard has given Seton Hall a great blueprint for guarding Magee. The Pirates beat Marquette twice in the March, and they did a really good job of keeping Howard in check, including just 6 points in their first matchup. Quincy McKnight has the length to bother Magee, and they did an excellent job of switching screens to keep him from having open shots. I think that, partnered with no real matchup for Myles Powell, will be enough for Seton Hall to win a very close game.
My Pick: Seton Hall
Confidence: 55%
Gambling: Seton Hall +2.5
2. Kentucky vs 15. Abilene Christian
I don't really have a ton to say about this game. Kentucky is just quite simply a lot better than the other Wildcats, and Abilene Christian struggles at defending the rim. They do shoot it well from deep, which could cause some funky results, especially against the spread, but in their one game against a good team, they lost by 34 to Texas Tech. I feel pretty good about saying Kentucky will win this game.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 95%
Gambling: Over 132
Second Round
1. North Carolina vs 8. Utah State
This is going to be a really fun game. These are two really good offensive teams, and it features some excellent coaches as they look to outscheme the other. The key will be the fast break, as UNC puts on a clinic with their secondary break, and Utah State will need to keep them out of transition for most of the game. One thing to watch is rebounding, as North Carolina is one of the best teams in the nation at getting to the offensive glass. However, the Aggies really own the defensive glass, and if they can limit Luke Maye and Garrison Brooks from getting offensive boards, that gives them a really good chance. I still think North Carolina has the three best players in the game, and that should be enough for the victory, but I would probably predict a single digit margin of victory.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 65%
12. New Mexico State vs 13. Northeastern
We've now ended up with a 12-13 matchup in the second round, and this should be an interesting matchup between two good mid majors. I just really like the way Northeastern plays on the offensive end, and I think they are good enough on the boards, especially defensively, to take the Aggies out of what they want to do there, and that might be the decider. I also think Vasa Pusica is the best player on the court, and I'm going to say the Huskies advance to the Sweet Sixteen.
My Pick: Northeastern
Confidence: 55%
6. Iowa State vs 3. Houston
This is a classic offense vs defense battle, and I feel very strongly about this one. While I normally like offense to take down defense in these scenarios, I do not trust the consistency of Iowa State at all. While they won their last three, it'll be four if they get to this point, but they were 3-6 heading into the conference tournament, and any prolonged winning streak has typically led to a losing streak for the Cyclones. Add in the fact that they are playing an excellent defensive team, especially one that allows 27.6% shooting from three, and I don't think they win. Plus, I think Houston's guards can absolutely match up very well with Iowa State's on both ends, and I really like the Cougars in this spot. However, if Iowa State can make their shots, then watch out, because they can beat just about anyone when they are clicking offensively, and could make a deep run, although I don't think that happens.
My Pick: Houston
Confidence: 65%
10. Seton Hall vs 2. Kentucky
In a rematch of a game from earlier this season at Madison Square Garden, which the Pirates won, we get to see two teams that I think have improved a lot since then. Myles Powell has emerged as one of the best scorers in the country for Seton Hall, and Kentucky has begun to figure out their rotation as well as how to best play together. I think this is a very different team than the one that lost a few months ago, and I think their biggest improvement has been defensively. They have turned into a team that can lock down teams, especially on the perimeter with Ashton Hagans, Tyler Herro, and Keldon Johnson, and I think both Hagans with torment Quincy McKnight, the primary ball handler for the Pirates, and really force turnovers. Beyond that, the way Kentucky rebounds, especially on the offensive end, grabbing 11.6 a game, with be tough for Seton Hall to deal with, since they were in the bottom half of the Big East in rebounding. I don't think their front court can match up with Kentucky's and I feel pretty strongly that the Wildcats take this one.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 75%
Sweet Sixteen
1. North Carolina vs 13. Northeastern
Listen, this one will be fairly straight forward. Northeastern just doesn't have the defensive acumen, especially in the front court, to guard North Carolina. I think Luke Maye and Coby White have big games here, dominating smaller players that are attempting to guard them. As for what Northeastern can do, I think they'll be able to hit some threes throughout the game, but I don't really see much of a route to a win for them against a team that does what they do, score, just better, and they are much better where Northeastern struggles, so I like the Tar Heels.
My Pick: North Carolina
Confidence: 80%
3. Houston vs 2. Kentucky
This game is going to be one of the best in the tournament if it gets to this point. I think both of these teams are incredible, especially defensively, and I think the game comes down to who can execute best on the offensive end. To me, that is Kentucky, mostly because of their front court. I don't know who matches up with PJ Washington for the Cougars, and I think he and Reid Travis can have big games in this one. Houston will run Nate Hinton and Cedric Alley out at the four consistently, and neither one can even kind of match up Washington, and Houston will have to play with two bigs, which isn't what they want to do. I also like how Herro and Johnson can match up with Corey Davis and Armani Brooks on the defensive end, so I'm going Kentucky.
My Pick: Kentucky
Confidence: 75%
Elite Eight
1. North Carolina vs 2. Kentucky
Another rematch for the Wildcats, this time one that they beat, in North Carolina. They took them down in Chicago during late December, and the big story of that game was Ashton Hagans. The point guard really played well, especially defensively, forcing 8 steals, to lead Kentucky to a win. However, Tar Heels point guard Coby White has improved as much as any player in the country this year, and I think he will be significantly better this time around. The most intriguing matchup to me is Cameron Johnson against Keldon Johnson and PJ Washington. I don't know how well Johnson will be able to do against two guys with length that can bother him, and I don't think he can guard either one defensively. I think that because of that, Kentucky gets revenge for the last time these two met in the Elite Eight, and pull out a close game.
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