Season in Review
After a down season with just four teams in the tournament last year, the Big Ten was back in a big way, ranking first in KenPom's conference rankings. The majority of the conversation recently has revolved around the bubble teams, with Ohio State and especially Indiana drawing the ire of many fans who want to see mid-majors rewarded, but it shouldn't be forgotten that the conference is currently staring down 7-9 bids. The top three teams, the two Michigan schools and Purdue, are all among the elites in the college basketball this season, and Wisconsin and Maryland are probably looking at five seeds or higher. There isn't a true runaway favorite for the tournament, and I think any of the top five could win it.
Bracket
Contenders
Michigan State (25-6, 16-4)
The Spartans have fought like they are in 300 this year. With their back against the wall and players dropping like flies, Michigan State has continued to pull out wins. Ranking top 10 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom, this is clearly an elite team. However, despite missing stars Joshua Langford and Nick Ward for the final five games of the season, Langford has been out since the new year and is likely out for the year while it looks like Ward will be returning for the tournament, they went 4-1 down the stretch, including sweeping Michigan. They have Cassius Winston, the Leonidas of the team and one of the top point guards in the country, and despite not having as much talent as previous years, they remain one of the top teams in the country and have a good shot at winning the tournament.
Purdue (23-8, 16-4)
The Boilermakers were a team I was really down on coming into the season, and for a while, I looked like a genius. They started off 9-6, and it really looked like they couldn't beat a good team. However, they lost two games the rest of the way, making me look like a fool for doubting them. This team is greater than the sum of its parts, with every player playing a specific role and fulfilling it. It has led to great success, as they have the fifth best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country, and they are the best three point shooting team in the Big Ten. With Carsen Edwards, the leading scorer in the conference, leading the way, they are tough to stop, and with their gritty defense, it makes them a nightmare to play.
Michigan (26-5, 15-5)
The Wolverines were the national runner up last season, and despite losing some key contributors, they were just as good, if not better, this season. They have been reinvented as a defensive powerhouse thanks to assistant coach Luke Yaklich, and they are currently second in adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation. It is incredibly difficult to even get a clean look at the basket agains their defense, and they do a great job of forcing teams to take difficult shots. Their offense isn't too shabby either, ranking eighteenth in adjusted efficiency, and while they don't have any superstars, they have a bunch of oddities. They're kind of like the Island of Misfit Toys, with a 6 foot point guard who takes hook shots, a slow footed big who is a three point shooter, and a star freshman who acts like Connor McGregor any time he makes a shot. They have owned March the past two seasons, and they will look to win their third straight Big Ten tournament this year.
Sleeper Team
Maryland (22-9, 13-7)
The Terrapins kind of came into the year as a question mark, with one of the youngest teams in the country and some question marks about how the roster would fit together. However, they have been very good all season, and are the five seed in the tournament. They play two bigs together in Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith, which can work because of Fernando's improved passing and scoring abilities and Smith's three point touch. It helps that they are surrounded by three sharpshooting guards, which helps explain why they are the second best three point shooting team in the conference. They also dominate the boards, ranking twenty first in the nation at rebounds per game and second in the conference. They have their issues, they turn the ball over too much and none of their guards are that good defensively, but they have the pieces to go on a deep run.
Rutgers (14-16, 7-13)
I'm not saying the Scarlet Knights will go on a deep run and win the tournament or anything like that, but this is a team that could certainly win two games. They did so with a last season, and that team was much worse than this year's iteration. They have a bright future, with lots of talented freshmen in the rotation, along with a junior and two sophomores. Rutgers likes to play in the mud, and they will drag you in there with them. This isn't a good offensive team by any stretch, but they play tough, physical defense, and given that they could come against teams with tired legs, that could really work in their favor. This is a team on the rise, and they could announce themselves by pulling off a big upset.
Bubble Watch
Iowa
Threat Level: Low
Iowa looked for a while like they would be a high seed come March, but after losing five of their last six, alarm bells are going off in Iowa City. They should be fine, with quality wins over Michigan and Iowa State, but a first round loss would be very bad. They are currently an eight seed on Bracket Matrix, which is an aggregate of 187 different bracketologists, but another loss and suddenly things could get hairy.
Minnesota
Threat Level: Beginning to Worry
After a tough year, Minnesota bounced back, and they hold wins over Washington, Purdue, and Wisconsin. However, they also lost to Boston College, Illinois, and Rutgers, and seeing as they are currently projected as a ten seed, should they lose their opening game, they could find themselves in a precarious situation on Selection Sunday. For now, they should be fine, but there has to be a little bit of worry creeping into Richard Pitino's mind.
Ohio State
Threat Level: High Alert
The Buckeyes started off as the number one team in the NET, and went 12-1 in non-conference play. They then went on to lose five straight in conference play, and haven't really recovered since. They lost their last three games, and are 8-12 in Big Ten play. They are the last team in on Bracket Matrix, so they need a good performance to feel safe on Selection Sunday, especially with potential big thieves in multiple conferences. For what it's worth, I don't think they deserve a bid, both with their resume and the eye test.
Indiana
Threat Level: High Alert
The second team out on Bracket Matrix, the Hoosiers are about as divisive as you will find. Despite wins over Marquette, Louisville, Wisconsin, and a sweep of Michigan State, many are calling for the Selection Committee to leave teams like Indiana, power conference teams with losing conference records, out in favor of top mid-majors like Belmont. They are 8-12 in the Big Ten, and their opening Big Ten tournament game against Ohio State is essentially a play in, as the loser will more than likely miss out on March. They need to win that one to even have a shot, so things in Bloomington are tense at the moment. In my opinion, I think their resume is better than the Buckeyes, and given the way they are playing, I think they win it and get in, much to the dismay of plenty of people on Twitter.
Players to Watch
Cassius Winston
Stats: 19 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 7.6 APG, 1 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 47.1/41.3/82.6
The point guard at Michigan State is one of the best in the country, and he is the biggest reason for all of Michigan State's success this year. He is third in the country in assists this year, as well as leading the Big Ten, and is one of the best passers in the nation. He's had five double doubles with assists this season, and he runs the Michigan State offense to perfection, constantly finding open players, especially in the open court. He's also a capable scorer, finishing fifth in the Big Ten in point per game, and he's got great touch around the rim as well as beyond the arc. He's often taken games over in the second half to lead Michigan State to victories, and he did is twice against Michigan this season. He averaged 25 points and 7.5 assists in the two games against the Wolverines and their star defensive point guard Zavier Simpson, proving just how good he is with the eyes of the nation on him. Look for him to continue his stellar play in the conference tournament.
Carsen Edwards
Stats: 23.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3 APG, 1.5 SPG, 0.3 BPG, 39/34.1/84.2
The lone remaining starter from last season's Purdue team, Edwards has taken hold of the reins for Purdue this year. He is a pure scorer, and he leads the conference in scoring this season. While at times he can turn into an inefficient chucker, when he is on, there is basically no way to stop him. He scored 40 against Texas and 36 in an overtime win against Wisconsin, and while his numbers have dipped lately, that has been better for the team. He now has more trust in his teammates, and generally isn't trying to do everything by himself anymore. But if he needs to, he can take over a game, and he could do so as Purdue mounts their title run.
Ethan Happ
Stats: 17.8 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.1 SPG, 1.2 BPG, 53.2/0/46.8
My All Conference Teams
First Team
G: Cassius Winston, Michigan State
G: Carsen Edwards, Purdue
F: Jordan Murphy, Minnesota
F: Ethan Happ, Wisconsin
F: Bruno Fernando, Maryland
Second Team
G: Romeo Langford, Indiana
F: Ignas Brazdeikis, Michigan
F: Lamar Stevens, Penn State
F: Kaleb Wesson, Ohio State
F: Juwan Morgan, Indiana
Third Team
G: Zavier Simpson, Michigan
G: Anthony Cowan, Maryland
G: Amior Coffey, Minnesota
G: James Palmer, Nebraska
F: Nick Ward, Michigan State
My Pick: Michigan over Maryland
I went for a bit of madness in the Big Ten, with neither of the top two seeds making the finals. Michigan has absolutely dominated the Big Ten tournament the past two seasons, winning it each year, and with the one of the top defenses in the nation, I think they can make enough shots to win the tournament. As for Maryland, I really like the way they match up with Michigan State, having the size to match up with the Spartans bigs, and with Nick Ward's health up in the air, it opens the door for the Terps to make a run to the finals.
After a down season with just four teams in the tournament last year, the Big Ten was back in a big way, ranking first in KenPom's conference rankings. The majority of the conversation recently has revolved around the bubble teams, with Ohio State and especially Indiana drawing the ire of many fans who want to see mid-majors rewarded, but it shouldn't be forgotten that the conference is currently staring down 7-9 bids. The top three teams, the two Michigan schools and Purdue, are all among the elites in the college basketball this season, and Wisconsin and Maryland are probably looking at five seeds or higher. There isn't a true runaway favorite for the tournament, and I think any of the top five could win it.
Bracket
Contenders
Michigan State (25-6, 16-4)
The Spartans have fought like they are in 300 this year. With their back against the wall and players dropping like flies, Michigan State has continued to pull out wins. Ranking top 10 in the country in both offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom, this is clearly an elite team. However, despite missing stars Joshua Langford and Nick Ward for the final five games of the season, Langford has been out since the new year and is likely out for the year while it looks like Ward will be returning for the tournament, they went 4-1 down the stretch, including sweeping Michigan. They have Cassius Winston, the Leonidas of the team and one of the top point guards in the country, and despite not having as much talent as previous years, they remain one of the top teams in the country and have a good shot at winning the tournament.
Purdue (23-8, 16-4)
The Boilermakers were a team I was really down on coming into the season, and for a while, I looked like a genius. They started off 9-6, and it really looked like they couldn't beat a good team. However, they lost two games the rest of the way, making me look like a fool for doubting them. This team is greater than the sum of its parts, with every player playing a specific role and fulfilling it. It has led to great success, as they have the fifth best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country, and they are the best three point shooting team in the Big Ten. With Carsen Edwards, the leading scorer in the conference, leading the way, they are tough to stop, and with their gritty defense, it makes them a nightmare to play.
Michigan (26-5, 15-5)
The Wolverines were the national runner up last season, and despite losing some key contributors, they were just as good, if not better, this season. They have been reinvented as a defensive powerhouse thanks to assistant coach Luke Yaklich, and they are currently second in adjusted defensive efficiency in the nation. It is incredibly difficult to even get a clean look at the basket agains their defense, and they do a great job of forcing teams to take difficult shots. Their offense isn't too shabby either, ranking eighteenth in adjusted efficiency, and while they don't have any superstars, they have a bunch of oddities. They're kind of like the Island of Misfit Toys, with a 6 foot point guard who takes hook shots, a slow footed big who is a three point shooter, and a star freshman who acts like Connor McGregor any time he makes a shot. They have owned March the past two seasons, and they will look to win their third straight Big Ten tournament this year.
Sleeper Team
Maryland (22-9, 13-7)
The Terrapins kind of came into the year as a question mark, with one of the youngest teams in the country and some question marks about how the roster would fit together. However, they have been very good all season, and are the five seed in the tournament. They play two bigs together in Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith, which can work because of Fernando's improved passing and scoring abilities and Smith's three point touch. It helps that they are surrounded by three sharpshooting guards, which helps explain why they are the second best three point shooting team in the conference. They also dominate the boards, ranking twenty first in the nation at rebounds per game and second in the conference. They have their issues, they turn the ball over too much and none of their guards are that good defensively, but they have the pieces to go on a deep run.
Rutgers (14-16, 7-13)
I'm not saying the Scarlet Knights will go on a deep run and win the tournament or anything like that, but this is a team that could certainly win two games. They did so with a last season, and that team was much worse than this year's iteration. They have a bright future, with lots of talented freshmen in the rotation, along with a junior and two sophomores. Rutgers likes to play in the mud, and they will drag you in there with them. This isn't a good offensive team by any stretch, but they play tough, physical defense, and given that they could come against teams with tired legs, that could really work in their favor. This is a team on the rise, and they could announce themselves by pulling off a big upset.
Bubble Watch
Iowa
Threat Level: Low
Iowa looked for a while like they would be a high seed come March, but after losing five of their last six, alarm bells are going off in Iowa City. They should be fine, with quality wins over Michigan and Iowa State, but a first round loss would be very bad. They are currently an eight seed on Bracket Matrix, which is an aggregate of 187 different bracketologists, but another loss and suddenly things could get hairy.
Minnesota
Threat Level: Beginning to Worry
After a tough year, Minnesota bounced back, and they hold wins over Washington, Purdue, and Wisconsin. However, they also lost to Boston College, Illinois, and Rutgers, and seeing as they are currently projected as a ten seed, should they lose their opening game, they could find themselves in a precarious situation on Selection Sunday. For now, they should be fine, but there has to be a little bit of worry creeping into Richard Pitino's mind.
Threat Level: High Alert
The Buckeyes started off as the number one team in the NET, and went 12-1 in non-conference play. They then went on to lose five straight in conference play, and haven't really recovered since. They lost their last three games, and are 8-12 in Big Ten play. They are the last team in on Bracket Matrix, so they need a good performance to feel safe on Selection Sunday, especially with potential big thieves in multiple conferences. For what it's worth, I don't think they deserve a bid, both with their resume and the eye test.
Threat Level: High Alert
The second team out on Bracket Matrix, the Hoosiers are about as divisive as you will find. Despite wins over Marquette, Louisville, Wisconsin, and a sweep of Michigan State, many are calling for the Selection Committee to leave teams like Indiana, power conference teams with losing conference records, out in favor of top mid-majors like Belmont. They are 8-12 in the Big Ten, and their opening Big Ten tournament game against Ohio State is essentially a play in, as the loser will more than likely miss out on March. They need to win that one to even have a shot, so things in Bloomington are tense at the moment. In my opinion, I think their resume is better than the Buckeyes, and given the way they are playing, I think they win it and get in, much to the dismay of plenty of people on Twitter.
Players to Watch
Cassius Winston
Stats: 19 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 7.6 APG, 1 SPG, 0.1 BPG, 47.1/41.3/82.6
The point guard at Michigan State is one of the best in the country, and he is the biggest reason for all of Michigan State's success this year. He is third in the country in assists this year, as well as leading the Big Ten, and is one of the best passers in the nation. He's had five double doubles with assists this season, and he runs the Michigan State offense to perfection, constantly finding open players, especially in the open court. He's also a capable scorer, finishing fifth in the Big Ten in point per game, and he's got great touch around the rim as well as beyond the arc. He's often taken games over in the second half to lead Michigan State to victories, and he did is twice against Michigan this season. He averaged 25 points and 7.5 assists in the two games against the Wolverines and their star defensive point guard Zavier Simpson, proving just how good he is with the eyes of the nation on him. Look for him to continue his stellar play in the conference tournament.
Carsen Edwards
Stats: 23.4 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3 APG, 1.5 SPG, 0.3 BPG, 39/34.1/84.2
The lone remaining starter from last season's Purdue team, Edwards has taken hold of the reins for Purdue this year. He is a pure scorer, and he leads the conference in scoring this season. While at times he can turn into an inefficient chucker, when he is on, there is basically no way to stop him. He scored 40 against Texas and 36 in an overtime win against Wisconsin, and while his numbers have dipped lately, that has been better for the team. He now has more trust in his teammates, and generally isn't trying to do everything by himself anymore. But if he needs to, he can take over a game, and he could do so as Purdue mounts their title run.
Stats: 17.8 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.1 SPG, 1.2 BPG, 53.2/0/46.8
Happ is one of the most versatile players in the country, and he does a little bit of everything for the Badgers. He leads the team in points, rebounds, assists, and steals, and ranks second in blocks, and despite being a big man, the entire offense revolves around him. He can grab and go with rebounds, make plays from the high post, has a devasting spin move in the low post, and is one of the best finishers in the nation. He's posted two triple doubles this year, and averages a double double. Of course, the one thing he can't do is shoot the ball, and he is a legitimate liability late in games, where his free throw shooting can at times lose games for the Badgers. It's very rare to see a player with a lower free throw percentage than field goal percentage, but Happ is one of them. Still, he is incredibly effective and a likely All-American, so be sure to watch him play for Wisconsin.
My All Conference Teams
First Team
G: Cassius Winston, Michigan State
G: Carsen Edwards, Purdue
F: Jordan Murphy, Minnesota
F: Ethan Happ, Wisconsin
F: Bruno Fernando, Maryland
Second Team
G: Romeo Langford, Indiana
F: Ignas Brazdeikis, Michigan
F: Lamar Stevens, Penn State
F: Kaleb Wesson, Ohio State
F: Juwan Morgan, Indiana
Third Team
G: Zavier Simpson, Michigan
G: Anthony Cowan, Maryland
G: Amior Coffey, Minnesota
G: James Palmer, Nebraska
F: Nick Ward, Michigan State
My Pick: Michigan over Maryland
I went for a bit of madness in the Big Ten, with neither of the top two seeds making the finals. Michigan has absolutely dominated the Big Ten tournament the past two seasons, winning it each year, and with the one of the top defenses in the nation, I think they can make enough shots to win the tournament. As for Maryland, I really like the way they match up with Michigan State, having the size to match up with the Spartans bigs, and with Nick Ward's health up in the air, it opens the door for the Terps to make a run to the finals.
Comments
Post a Comment