Season in Review
The Patriot League has been dominated for years by Bucknell, although that changed this season. The Bison finally ceded their stranglehold on the conference after winning the league outright every year since 2014, and will have to be the two seed in this year's conference tournament. Instead, Colgate took the league title this year, going 13-5 just like the Bison. Behind those two was Lehigh, who went 12-6, and the bottom six of the league was clustered, all being within three games of each other. I think there could be some upsets in the conference tournament, so it should be a fun road.
Bracket
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Contenders
Colgate (21-10, 13-5)
The Raiders had their most successful season in KenPom history, sharing the regular season with perennial powers Bucknell. After a 5-5 start to conference play, they got really hot down the stretch, winning their final 8 games. It never hurts to have momentum going into the conference tournament, especially since every game they play will be on their home court. They've been propelled by their offense through conference play, with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 113.5 in the Patriot League, and they take and make a lot of threes. They are shooting 38.7% from deep on the year, which is sixteenth best in the entire country. They have the Conference Player of the Year in Northwestern transfer Rapolas Ivanauskas as well as some other quality pieces, so they have a good chance of continuing their success with a conference tournament win.
Bucknell (19-11, 13-5)
Bucknell has once again had a successful season, tying with Colgate atop the conference. They had the top defense in the conference, doing a great job holding their opposition to the second lowest three point percentage and the lowest two point percentage in the American. They have also embraced a free flowing offense, taking 45% of their shots from three and assisting on 60% of their made field goals. They also have the pedigree, with multiple players that have made this run before. Speaking of their roster, they have the excellent inside-out combo of Kimball McKenzie and Nate Sestina, and I think they are two of the top six or seven players in the conference. In addition, their role players do a great job filling their roles, with guys like Jimmy Sotos knowing what they have to do and executing it. They should be considered one of the favorites to make a deep run and get the bid.
Lehigh (19-10, 12-6)
The Mountain Hawks should be very scary to anyone they have to play, either in the Patriot League tournament or a postseason tournament they get into, for one major reason: the three point line. They shoot 43.4% from behind the arc, best in the nation, and when you can shoot like that, you can win any game. If this team is hot, watch out, as they have four players shooting over 40% from deep, and all of them are top 100 nationally. The problem with them has been their spotty defense, and they can really lose control of games if their shots aren't falling. However, the rest of the league should be scared if the Mountain Hawks get hot from deep.
Sleeper Team
None
I just don't know who I would identify here as a potential upset. The entire league outside of the top 3 is pretty mediocre, and everyone is clumped around each other as I mentioned earlier. Boston, Loyola, and American all have some really good players, and they could do it, but I just don't think any of the top 3 lose to anyone but each other.
Players to Watch
Rapolas Ivanauskas
Stats: 16.3 PPG, 8 RPG, 1.7 APG, 0.6 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 51.7/43.8/77.8
The Northwestern transfer has been spectacular in the Patriot League this season, and it's easy to see why. The big man can play inside and out, and it's hard for anyone in this league to guard him. He has been crucial for the Raiders all year, and in conference play, he has been very good, averaging 17.9 points in league play. If you want to see just how good Ivanauskas is, look no further than his game at the beginning of February against Lehigh. He scored 33 points, had 10 rebounds, and 5 assists, and that's against one of the better teams in the conference. I expect him to play really well throughout this tournament as Colgate hunts for the tournament.
Nate Sestina
Stats: 15.5 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1.1 APG, 0.3 SPG, 1 BPG, 61.1/37.1/81.6
As I mentioned earlier, Sestina and Kimball McKenzie are as dynamic a one-two punch as you will find in the Patriot League. I chose to highlight Sestina, who like Ivanauskas is a big man, although he does a lot more as a low post threat, although he has lots of perimeter ability. Sestina is the latest in a line of talented Bucknell bigs, replacing Zach Thomas and Nana Foulland from last season. Sestina has done some great work in the conference tournament, and I look forward to seeing what he can do in the conference tournament.
Sa'eed Nelson
Stats: 19.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 5.2 APG, 2.4 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 50.9/27.6/71.7
As you can see, Nelson has stuffed the stat sheet at American this season, and the junior point guard is one of the main reasons why the Eagles can make a run. He has led the team all season, and it really is a case that as he goes, American goes. Luckily for American fans, he's been great, and in conference play, he averaged 20.6 points, 5.6 assists, and 5.6 rebounds, so there's a good chance they've got a pretty nice shot at winning at least a game, and if Nelson can go wild, the Eagles could go far.
Andrew Kostecka
Stats: 21.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.4 APG, 2.7 SPG, 0.9 BPG, 52.1/37.2/81.6
First off, I have a soft spot for Loyola since my cousin won a national lacrosse championship there. It doesn't look like they will be winning a basketball championship anytime soon, but they have the leading scorer in the conference in Kostecka. He just casually drops 20+ point games seemingly every time out, and he's got a shot to lead to Greyhounds past the one seed Colgate, assuming the beat Boston first. Kostecka is the type of guy who can singlehandedly win games and propel a team in a single elimination setting, so he is certainly someone to watch.
My All Conference Teams
First Team
G: Kimball McKenzie, Bucknell
G: Sa'eed Nelson, American
G: Andrew Kostecka, Loyola (MD)
F: Rapolas Ivanauskas, Colgate
F: Nate Sestina, Bucknell
Second Team
G: Jordan Burns, Colgate
G: Justin Jaworski, Lafayette
G: Lance Tejada, Lehigh
F: Matthew Wilson, Army
F: Max Mahoney, Boston
My Pick: Colgate over Lehigh
I think Lehigh can outgun Bucknell in the semifinal matchup, but I think in a shootout against the Raiders, I believe the Raiders have the better offense and defense and can take down the Mountain Hawks. One thing I will say is not seeing either one of these teams make it this far wouldn't shock me, but I think they have the best shot to get here. Also, I really like the Raiders this year, so I think they take this title.
The Patriot League has been dominated for years by Bucknell, although that changed this season. The Bison finally ceded their stranglehold on the conference after winning the league outright every year since 2014, and will have to be the two seed in this year's conference tournament. Instead, Colgate took the league title this year, going 13-5 just like the Bison. Behind those two was Lehigh, who went 12-6, and the bottom six of the league was clustered, all being within three games of each other. I think there could be some upsets in the conference tournament, so it should be a fun road.
Bracket
Contenders
Colgate (21-10, 13-5)
The Raiders had their most successful season in KenPom history, sharing the regular season with perennial powers Bucknell. After a 5-5 start to conference play, they got really hot down the stretch, winning their final 8 games. It never hurts to have momentum going into the conference tournament, especially since every game they play will be on their home court. They've been propelled by their offense through conference play, with an adjusted offensive efficiency of 113.5 in the Patriot League, and they take and make a lot of threes. They are shooting 38.7% from deep on the year, which is sixteenth best in the entire country. They have the Conference Player of the Year in Northwestern transfer Rapolas Ivanauskas as well as some other quality pieces, so they have a good chance of continuing their success with a conference tournament win.
Bucknell (19-11, 13-5)
Bucknell has once again had a successful season, tying with Colgate atop the conference. They had the top defense in the conference, doing a great job holding their opposition to the second lowest three point percentage and the lowest two point percentage in the American. They have also embraced a free flowing offense, taking 45% of their shots from three and assisting on 60% of their made field goals. They also have the pedigree, with multiple players that have made this run before. Speaking of their roster, they have the excellent inside-out combo of Kimball McKenzie and Nate Sestina, and I think they are two of the top six or seven players in the conference. In addition, their role players do a great job filling their roles, with guys like Jimmy Sotos knowing what they have to do and executing it. They should be considered one of the favorites to make a deep run and get the bid.
Lehigh (19-10, 12-6)
The Mountain Hawks should be very scary to anyone they have to play, either in the Patriot League tournament or a postseason tournament they get into, for one major reason: the three point line. They shoot 43.4% from behind the arc, best in the nation, and when you can shoot like that, you can win any game. If this team is hot, watch out, as they have four players shooting over 40% from deep, and all of them are top 100 nationally. The problem with them has been their spotty defense, and they can really lose control of games if their shots aren't falling. However, the rest of the league should be scared if the Mountain Hawks get hot from deep.
Sleeper Team
None
I just don't know who I would identify here as a potential upset. The entire league outside of the top 3 is pretty mediocre, and everyone is clumped around each other as I mentioned earlier. Boston, Loyola, and American all have some really good players, and they could do it, but I just don't think any of the top 3 lose to anyone but each other.
Players to Watch
Rapolas Ivanauskas
Stats: 16.3 PPG, 8 RPG, 1.7 APG, 0.6 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 51.7/43.8/77.8
The Northwestern transfer has been spectacular in the Patriot League this season, and it's easy to see why. The big man can play inside and out, and it's hard for anyone in this league to guard him. He has been crucial for the Raiders all year, and in conference play, he has been very good, averaging 17.9 points in league play. If you want to see just how good Ivanauskas is, look no further than his game at the beginning of February against Lehigh. He scored 33 points, had 10 rebounds, and 5 assists, and that's against one of the better teams in the conference. I expect him to play really well throughout this tournament as Colgate hunts for the tournament.
Nate Sestina
Stats: 15.5 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 1.1 APG, 0.3 SPG, 1 BPG, 61.1/37.1/81.6
As I mentioned earlier, Sestina and Kimball McKenzie are as dynamic a one-two punch as you will find in the Patriot League. I chose to highlight Sestina, who like Ivanauskas is a big man, although he does a lot more as a low post threat, although he has lots of perimeter ability. Sestina is the latest in a line of talented Bucknell bigs, replacing Zach Thomas and Nana Foulland from last season. Sestina has done some great work in the conference tournament, and I look forward to seeing what he can do in the conference tournament.
Sa'eed Nelson
Stats: 19.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 5.2 APG, 2.4 SPG, 0.6 BPG, 50.9/27.6/71.7
As you can see, Nelson has stuffed the stat sheet at American this season, and the junior point guard is one of the main reasons why the Eagles can make a run. He has led the team all season, and it really is a case that as he goes, American goes. Luckily for American fans, he's been great, and in conference play, he averaged 20.6 points, 5.6 assists, and 5.6 rebounds, so there's a good chance they've got a pretty nice shot at winning at least a game, and if Nelson can go wild, the Eagles could go far.
Andrew Kostecka
Stats: 21.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.4 APG, 2.7 SPG, 0.9 BPG, 52.1/37.2/81.6
First off, I have a soft spot for Loyola since my cousin won a national lacrosse championship there. It doesn't look like they will be winning a basketball championship anytime soon, but they have the leading scorer in the conference in Kostecka. He just casually drops 20+ point games seemingly every time out, and he's got a shot to lead to Greyhounds past the one seed Colgate, assuming the beat Boston first. Kostecka is the type of guy who can singlehandedly win games and propel a team in a single elimination setting, so he is certainly someone to watch.
My All Conference Teams
First Team
G: Kimball McKenzie, Bucknell
G: Sa'eed Nelson, American
G: Andrew Kostecka, Loyola (MD)
F: Rapolas Ivanauskas, Colgate
F: Nate Sestina, Bucknell
Second Team
G: Jordan Burns, Colgate
G: Justin Jaworski, Lafayette
G: Lance Tejada, Lehigh
F: Matthew Wilson, Army
F: Max Mahoney, Boston
My Pick: Colgate over Lehigh
I think Lehigh can outgun Bucknell in the semifinal matchup, but I think in a shootout against the Raiders, I believe the Raiders have the better offense and defense and can take down the Mountain Hawks. One thing I will say is not seeing either one of these teams make it this far wouldn't shock me, but I think they have the best shot to get here. Also, I really like the Raiders this year, so I think they take this title.
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