First Round
1. Duke vs 16. North Dakota State
Yeah I get the feeling the Bison might struggle against Duke. The Blue Devils hold a significant athletic advantage, and they might be a bit more talented as well. I will say that I thought Tyson Ward was very impressive last night, but I don't see this team winning the game. The main question comes in terms of if they can cover, and I don't think they can. Looking back to Duke's games against low major teams, they were obliterating them, often winning by something in the 30s, so I think the Blue Devils win in dominating fashion.
My Pick: Duke
Confidence: 99%
Gambling: Duke -27
8. VCU vs 9. UCF
The main question in this game will be Marcus Evans. The star for VCU went down with an injury during their game against Rhode Island in the Atlantic Ten tournament, and while reports are saying he will play, I question how healthy he will be in this game. If he is less than 100%, I don't think VCU will be able to score against the defense of the Knights. They have already had troubles scoring this season, and losing their leading scorer could be a problem. On the other end, I think Aubrey Dawkins and BJ Taylor can do enough to win this game for the Knights, although I will say I don't trust the Knights to take care of the ball against the high pressure of VCU. Still, I think they have the advantage on both ends of the court, and I don't know how VCU will be able to score without Evans.
My Pick: UCF
Confidence: 70%
Gambling: UCF -1, under 127
5. Mississippi State vs 12. Liberty
First off, the things Liberty stands for as a university sucks, and it's really unfortunate that they will be on a nation stage with their views. However, I'm not here to evaluate that sort of thing, instead looking at what is on the court, and with that, Liberty is a team who could cause an upset, although I think they are in a bad matchup. They play at a slow pace, which can create problems for high major schools, and have a very efficient offense, especially on the interior with Scottie James, who shoots 70.3% from two point range. However, I think the athleticism of Mississippi State will give them a lot of problems. James will get eaten alive by Reggie Perry, who is much more athletic and physical than he is, and that goes for every position for the Bulldogs. I don't think they have a matchup for Quinndary Weatherspoon, and I think they will be able to get into the middle of the pack line defense with the athletic advantage. This could be close at the half, but I don't think it is much of a game as Mississippi State exploits athletic mismatches.
My Pick: Mississippi State
Confidence: 80%
Gambling: Mississippi State -6.5
4. Virginia Tech vs 13. Saint Louis
This looks like a mismatch on paper, with Virginia Tech regaining their star point guard Justin Robinson, who makes them an incredibly potent offense, and Saint Louis being not great overall, losing 12 games this season. However, Saint Louis is very good on the defensive end and making things ugly. They have some very talented players who are super athletic, and have arguably the most talented roster in the Atlantic Ten, but their offense has been so bad this year, especially shooting the ball, that they couldn't win games. Still, I think they can make things very difficult for guys like Nickeil Alexander-Walker on the offensive end, and this could be a pretty close game, especially if Robinson isn't 100%. I think Virginia Tech wins, but I expect it to be ugly.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 65%
Gambling: Saint Louis +10.5, under 126
6. Maryland vs 11. Belmont
It has been well documented that every year since it was introduced, a team from the First Four has won a tournament game, and Belmont will be a very popular pick this year. The Bruins are one of the top offenses in the country, and they have one of the top offensive minds in the country in Rick Byrd. They will be going up against Maryland, who could present some problems for them. They will have to figure out how to guard the two bigs of Maryland, Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith, and I don't think Nick Muszynski can guard either one, plus they don't play with two bigs on the floor. However, I like the Bruins in this one. I think they can control the tempo and play fast with the 31st quickest pace in the nation, which is much quicker than the Terrapins want to play, and they will do that with turnovers. Maryland has struggled with turnovers throughout the season, and while Belmont doesn't get steals at a high rate, I think they will be able to get enough to get out in transition and play quickly. Plus, they hold a coaching advantage, so I think Belmont pulls this one out.
My Pick: Belmont
Confidence: 60%
Gambling: Belmont +3
3. LSU vs 14. Yale
This one is really intriguing to me. LSU is of course without their coach Will Wade after allegations of paying a player, and Yale has more athleticism than you'd expect out of any Ivy League school. It will be an interesting one to watch, as the Bulldogs might have the best player on the court in Miye Oni. The junior wing has been generating NBA buzz, and he thrives in transition where he can use his athletic gifts to his advantage, and both teams will look to run, so he could impress. I do think that talent gap between these two teams isn't as significant as you would think from a 3-14 matchup, and Yale will hang around for a while. However, I think Naz Reid is a matchup nightmare for the Bulldogs, as I don't think they can guard the stretch five. Plus, I think LSU can win the battle on the glass, which gives them the win, but I expect it to be close.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 65%
Gambling: Yale +7, Yale moneyline (the value at +260 is excellent for a team that has a decent chance at winning)
7. Louisville vs 10. Minnesota
I have to say, this matchup is wild for multiple reasons. First and most obviously, the Pick Pitino factor, as the disgraced Louisville head coach could be attending to see his son, Richard, coach Minnesota. If he is there, it would be a crazy scene. Also, these were two teams I was looking to fade coming into the tournament, so this will be a fun one for me to pick. I really don't like Louisville, especially their talent level, which I think is subpar outside of Jordan Nwora, and I hate the fact that Minnesota can't shoot. The game ultimately comes down to Nwora versus Jordan Murphy, with each being able to take advantage of the other offensively, and I like Nwora there, but I think the big advantage is with coaching, as Chris Mack is an excellent coach, so give me Louisville I guess, but I am doing it begrudgingly.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 55%
Gambling: Louisville -5, under 135
2. Michigan State vs 15. Bradley
I have been shocked with how good Michigan State has been, given all of their injuries and a team that isn't as talented as they've had in the past, and I don't see them struggling in this one. Bradley is... not very good, and I doubt they suddenly break out against a really solid team. The Spartans are top 10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, and they should be able to dominate this game, especially with Cassius Winston picking apart even elite defenses like Michigan, so I don't think he has trouble with the Braves. The matchup here is the spread, and that could be tricky. Bradley will slow things down and try to make it ugly, which could work in their favor. However, Michigan State will just beat them down the court, and I think they win this game by right around 20 points.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 95%
Gambling: Michigan State -18.5
Second Round
1. Duke vs 9. UCF
It's very hard to take someone who isn't Duke, but if you were to do so, UCF isn't a horrible pick. The Knights can make things tough for the Blue Devils. They are going to make them shoot threes, which they do not do well at all, only making 30.2% of their shots from behind the arc. I want to be clear: Duke is winning this game, although if you believe my sister, who has the Knights making an Elite Eight run, you may go otherwise. All I want to see is Zion attempt to dunk on 7'6" Tacko Fall at UCF, and if he succeeds, I will go absolutely insane. I think it could be close for a while, but let's be real here: Duke wins this one.
My Pick: Duke
Confidence: 90%
5. Mississippi State vs 4. Virginia Tech
This feels like a matchup that most people won't care about since these aren't the biggest of names, but I think it'll be a good one. The health of Justin Robinson will be huge here, as if he is going, I think Virginia Tech is going to be a very tough out. He really impacts the offensive ceiling of the Hokies, and his playmaking is up there with anyone in the nation. I think even if he isn't 100%, Virginia Tech holds a huge advantage with the turnover battle, as the Bulldogs haven't been great at keeping hold of the ball, and the Hokies are fairly good at turning teams over. They also make 39.4% of their threes, while Mississippi State struggles defending the arc, so I think this is a Hokies win, although if Robinson is hobbled, I might take the Bulldogs to cover.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 75%
11. Belmont vs 3. LSU
The big story for me in this game is the coaching battle. Rick Byrd is an excellent coach, and LSU's assistant, Tony Benford, who has taken over for Wade after his suspension, is notable for being dreadful in charge of North Texas, failing to register a winning season. LSU holds all the advantages you'd expect them to: size, athleticism, probably talent as well. But when I look at this game, I see a well coached team that will absolutely kill you with their execution, and isn't going to give the ball away, against a team without their head coach on a quick turnaround trying to stop one of the best offenses in the country, with Belmont ranking inside the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency. The spot just screams Belmont, not to mention Dylan Windler might be the best player on the floor, and I think they pull off their second straight upset.
My Pick: Belmont
Confidence: 60%
7. Louisville vs 2. Michigan State
Despite the fact that Michigan State lost to Louisville earlier this year, I do not see a repeat of that in this game. The Spartans have been hot, winning ten of their last eleven entering the tournament, including the Big Ten Tournament, and Louisville has not, dropping eight of twelve heading into March. Plus, where does Louisville have an advantage? Their two mid-major transfer point guards guarding Cassius Winston? Ryan McMahon being a worse version of Matt McQuaid? Nick Ward tossing around Stephen Enoch? Give me Sparty pretty easily in this game.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 90%
Sweet Sixteen
1. Duke vs 4. Virginia Tech
In a rematch of a 77-72 Hokies victory, we will see how things change with Zion and Justin Robinson active for this one. I will say that Virginia Tech's combination of slowing down the pace and shooting lights out from three isn't one Duke will enjoy playing against. However, who is guarding Zion? The Hokies typically run with the 6'6" Ty Outlaw at the four, who while a good player and by no means a bad defender, is not stopping Zion from getting to the rim, and I think their lack of rim protection is the deciding factor here. That being said, I expect this to be a pretty tight game for most of the contest, but the Blue Devils keeping March on.
My Pick: Duke
Confidence: 65%
11. Belmont vs 2. Michigan State
Can Belmont keep up their magical run and knock off the two seed Michigan State? I'm not sold. For one, while Belmont has a killer offense, their defense isn't on that level, and I don't see them slowing down the Spartans and Cassius Winston. Michigan State assists on 68.2% of their made baskets, and that sort of ball movement could spell trouble for the Bruins, as their defense isn't built to withstand that sort of offense. This will also be the best defense they've faced so far by far, and I think the Spartans will be able to take them out of their normal offensive rhythm, and I think Matt McQuaid locking down Kevin McClain means Belmont doesn't have the guns to stick with the Spartans, and the clock strikes midnight on this Cinderella.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 75%
Elite Eight
1. Duke vs 2. Michigan State
Yknow, for someone who isn't fully sold on Michigan State, I have them in my Elite Eight with a shot to knock off Duke, and I will say I don't think it is as outlandish as you might think. Their offensive execution is second to none, as Cassius Winston won't be rattled by the pressure of Tre Jones after coming out on top of Zavier Simpson three different times this season. Zion also won't have an advantage in the post, with Xavier Tillman and Kenny Goins being able to match him physically in the paint, and I think Nick Ward can exploit whoever is guarding him offensively. However, Duke will just end up being too much for them to handle. While Zion might not have an overwhelming advantage in the post, he should be able to outduel Tillman and Goins on the perimeter with his explosive speed. Also, while Matt McQuaid and Aaron Henry are very good defenders, I don't think they can stop RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish. This game will be closer than people might initially think, but I look for the Blue Devils to advance to the Final Four.
My Pick: Duke
Confidence: 65%
1. Duke vs 16. North Dakota State
Yeah I get the feeling the Bison might struggle against Duke. The Blue Devils hold a significant athletic advantage, and they might be a bit more talented as well. I will say that I thought Tyson Ward was very impressive last night, but I don't see this team winning the game. The main question comes in terms of if they can cover, and I don't think they can. Looking back to Duke's games against low major teams, they were obliterating them, often winning by something in the 30s, so I think the Blue Devils win in dominating fashion.
My Pick: Duke
Confidence: 99%
Gambling: Duke -27
8. VCU vs 9. UCF
The main question in this game will be Marcus Evans. The star for VCU went down with an injury during their game against Rhode Island in the Atlantic Ten tournament, and while reports are saying he will play, I question how healthy he will be in this game. If he is less than 100%, I don't think VCU will be able to score against the defense of the Knights. They have already had troubles scoring this season, and losing their leading scorer could be a problem. On the other end, I think Aubrey Dawkins and BJ Taylor can do enough to win this game for the Knights, although I will say I don't trust the Knights to take care of the ball against the high pressure of VCU. Still, I think they have the advantage on both ends of the court, and I don't know how VCU will be able to score without Evans.
My Pick: UCF
Confidence: 70%
Gambling: UCF -1, under 127
5. Mississippi State vs 12. Liberty
First off, the things Liberty stands for as a university sucks, and it's really unfortunate that they will be on a nation stage with their views. However, I'm not here to evaluate that sort of thing, instead looking at what is on the court, and with that, Liberty is a team who could cause an upset, although I think they are in a bad matchup. They play at a slow pace, which can create problems for high major schools, and have a very efficient offense, especially on the interior with Scottie James, who shoots 70.3% from two point range. However, I think the athleticism of Mississippi State will give them a lot of problems. James will get eaten alive by Reggie Perry, who is much more athletic and physical than he is, and that goes for every position for the Bulldogs. I don't think they have a matchup for Quinndary Weatherspoon, and I think they will be able to get into the middle of the pack line defense with the athletic advantage. This could be close at the half, but I don't think it is much of a game as Mississippi State exploits athletic mismatches.
My Pick: Mississippi State
Confidence: 80%
Gambling: Mississippi State -6.5
4. Virginia Tech vs 13. Saint Louis
This looks like a mismatch on paper, with Virginia Tech regaining their star point guard Justin Robinson, who makes them an incredibly potent offense, and Saint Louis being not great overall, losing 12 games this season. However, Saint Louis is very good on the defensive end and making things ugly. They have some very talented players who are super athletic, and have arguably the most talented roster in the Atlantic Ten, but their offense has been so bad this year, especially shooting the ball, that they couldn't win games. Still, I think they can make things very difficult for guys like Nickeil Alexander-Walker on the offensive end, and this could be a pretty close game, especially if Robinson isn't 100%. I think Virginia Tech wins, but I expect it to be ugly.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 65%
Gambling: Saint Louis +10.5, under 126
6. Maryland vs 11. Belmont
It has been well documented that every year since it was introduced, a team from the First Four has won a tournament game, and Belmont will be a very popular pick this year. The Bruins are one of the top offenses in the country, and they have one of the top offensive minds in the country in Rick Byrd. They will be going up against Maryland, who could present some problems for them. They will have to figure out how to guard the two bigs of Maryland, Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith, and I don't think Nick Muszynski can guard either one, plus they don't play with two bigs on the floor. However, I like the Bruins in this one. I think they can control the tempo and play fast with the 31st quickest pace in the nation, which is much quicker than the Terrapins want to play, and they will do that with turnovers. Maryland has struggled with turnovers throughout the season, and while Belmont doesn't get steals at a high rate, I think they will be able to get enough to get out in transition and play quickly. Plus, they hold a coaching advantage, so I think Belmont pulls this one out.
My Pick: Belmont
Confidence: 60%
Gambling: Belmont +3
3. LSU vs 14. Yale
This one is really intriguing to me. LSU is of course without their coach Will Wade after allegations of paying a player, and Yale has more athleticism than you'd expect out of any Ivy League school. It will be an interesting one to watch, as the Bulldogs might have the best player on the court in Miye Oni. The junior wing has been generating NBA buzz, and he thrives in transition where he can use his athletic gifts to his advantage, and both teams will look to run, so he could impress. I do think that talent gap between these two teams isn't as significant as you would think from a 3-14 matchup, and Yale will hang around for a while. However, I think Naz Reid is a matchup nightmare for the Bulldogs, as I don't think they can guard the stretch five. Plus, I think LSU can win the battle on the glass, which gives them the win, but I expect it to be close.
My Pick: LSU
Confidence: 65%
Gambling: Yale +7, Yale moneyline (the value at +260 is excellent for a team that has a decent chance at winning)
7. Louisville vs 10. Minnesota
I have to say, this matchup is wild for multiple reasons. First and most obviously, the Pick Pitino factor, as the disgraced Louisville head coach could be attending to see his son, Richard, coach Minnesota. If he is there, it would be a crazy scene. Also, these were two teams I was looking to fade coming into the tournament, so this will be a fun one for me to pick. I really don't like Louisville, especially their talent level, which I think is subpar outside of Jordan Nwora, and I hate the fact that Minnesota can't shoot. The game ultimately comes down to Nwora versus Jordan Murphy, with each being able to take advantage of the other offensively, and I like Nwora there, but I think the big advantage is with coaching, as Chris Mack is an excellent coach, so give me Louisville I guess, but I am doing it begrudgingly.
My Pick: Louisville
Confidence: 55%
Gambling: Louisville -5, under 135
2. Michigan State vs 15. Bradley
I have been shocked with how good Michigan State has been, given all of their injuries and a team that isn't as talented as they've had in the past, and I don't see them struggling in this one. Bradley is... not very good, and I doubt they suddenly break out against a really solid team. The Spartans are top 10 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, and they should be able to dominate this game, especially with Cassius Winston picking apart even elite defenses like Michigan, so I don't think he has trouble with the Braves. The matchup here is the spread, and that could be tricky. Bradley will slow things down and try to make it ugly, which could work in their favor. However, Michigan State will just beat them down the court, and I think they win this game by right around 20 points.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 95%
Gambling: Michigan State -18.5
Second Round
1. Duke vs 9. UCF
It's very hard to take someone who isn't Duke, but if you were to do so, UCF isn't a horrible pick. The Knights can make things tough for the Blue Devils. They are going to make them shoot threes, which they do not do well at all, only making 30.2% of their shots from behind the arc. I want to be clear: Duke is winning this game, although if you believe my sister, who has the Knights making an Elite Eight run, you may go otherwise. All I want to see is Zion attempt to dunk on 7'6" Tacko Fall at UCF, and if he succeeds, I will go absolutely insane. I think it could be close for a while, but let's be real here: Duke wins this one.
My Pick: Duke
Confidence: 90%
5. Mississippi State vs 4. Virginia Tech
This feels like a matchup that most people won't care about since these aren't the biggest of names, but I think it'll be a good one. The health of Justin Robinson will be huge here, as if he is going, I think Virginia Tech is going to be a very tough out. He really impacts the offensive ceiling of the Hokies, and his playmaking is up there with anyone in the nation. I think even if he isn't 100%, Virginia Tech holds a huge advantage with the turnover battle, as the Bulldogs haven't been great at keeping hold of the ball, and the Hokies are fairly good at turning teams over. They also make 39.4% of their threes, while Mississippi State struggles defending the arc, so I think this is a Hokies win, although if Robinson is hobbled, I might take the Bulldogs to cover.
My Pick: Virginia Tech
Confidence: 75%
11. Belmont vs 3. LSU
The big story for me in this game is the coaching battle. Rick Byrd is an excellent coach, and LSU's assistant, Tony Benford, who has taken over for Wade after his suspension, is notable for being dreadful in charge of North Texas, failing to register a winning season. LSU holds all the advantages you'd expect them to: size, athleticism, probably talent as well. But when I look at this game, I see a well coached team that will absolutely kill you with their execution, and isn't going to give the ball away, against a team without their head coach on a quick turnaround trying to stop one of the best offenses in the country, with Belmont ranking inside the top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency. The spot just screams Belmont, not to mention Dylan Windler might be the best player on the floor, and I think they pull off their second straight upset.
My Pick: Belmont
Confidence: 60%
7. Louisville vs 2. Michigan State
Despite the fact that Michigan State lost to Louisville earlier this year, I do not see a repeat of that in this game. The Spartans have been hot, winning ten of their last eleven entering the tournament, including the Big Ten Tournament, and Louisville has not, dropping eight of twelve heading into March. Plus, where does Louisville have an advantage? Their two mid-major transfer point guards guarding Cassius Winston? Ryan McMahon being a worse version of Matt McQuaid? Nick Ward tossing around Stephen Enoch? Give me Sparty pretty easily in this game.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 90%
Sweet Sixteen
1. Duke vs 4. Virginia Tech
In a rematch of a 77-72 Hokies victory, we will see how things change with Zion and Justin Robinson active for this one. I will say that Virginia Tech's combination of slowing down the pace and shooting lights out from three isn't one Duke will enjoy playing against. However, who is guarding Zion? The Hokies typically run with the 6'6" Ty Outlaw at the four, who while a good player and by no means a bad defender, is not stopping Zion from getting to the rim, and I think their lack of rim protection is the deciding factor here. That being said, I expect this to be a pretty tight game for most of the contest, but the Blue Devils keeping March on.
My Pick: Duke
Confidence: 65%
Can Belmont keep up their magical run and knock off the two seed Michigan State? I'm not sold. For one, while Belmont has a killer offense, their defense isn't on that level, and I don't see them slowing down the Spartans and Cassius Winston. Michigan State assists on 68.2% of their made baskets, and that sort of ball movement could spell trouble for the Bruins, as their defense isn't built to withstand that sort of offense. This will also be the best defense they've faced so far by far, and I think the Spartans will be able to take them out of their normal offensive rhythm, and I think Matt McQuaid locking down Kevin McClain means Belmont doesn't have the guns to stick with the Spartans, and the clock strikes midnight on this Cinderella.
My Pick: Michigan State
Confidence: 75%
1. Duke vs 2. Michigan State
Yknow, for someone who isn't fully sold on Michigan State, I have them in my Elite Eight with a shot to knock off Duke, and I will say I don't think it is as outlandish as you might think. Their offensive execution is second to none, as Cassius Winston won't be rattled by the pressure of Tre Jones after coming out on top of Zavier Simpson three different times this season. Zion also won't have an advantage in the post, with Xavier Tillman and Kenny Goins being able to match him physically in the paint, and I think Nick Ward can exploit whoever is guarding him offensively. However, Duke will just end up being too much for them to handle. While Zion might not have an overwhelming advantage in the post, he should be able to outduel Tillman and Goins on the perimeter with his explosive speed. Also, while Matt McQuaid and Aaron Henry are very good defenders, I don't think they can stop RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish. This game will be closer than people might initially think, but I look for the Blue Devils to advance to the Final Four.
My Pick: Duke
Confidence: 65%
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