First Round
1. Virginia vs 16. Gardner-Webb
This game will be watched for one big reason: Gardner-Webb beat two ACC teams this season, and are looking to add a third. But for real, Virginia of course lost to UMBC in the 1-16 matchup last year, and they'll be looking to not repeat that this season, and I think they will be coming out very strong. I have been saying for most of the season that I think Virginia is going to beat the 16 seed they play by about 50 points, and they seem like they are going to come out firing. Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy, and De'Andre Hunter are all incredible players, and they all light it up from behind the arc, and their defense should be able to stifle the Runnin' Bulldogs in this game. Give me the Cavaliers all day long.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 99%
Gambling: Virginia -22
8. Mississippi vs 9. Oklahoma
This is a classic offense versus defense battle, with the Rebels running and gunning, and the Sooners locking their opponents down. It should be an interesting battle, but I know that I lean towards the Rebels. For one, I just like Mississippi more, and they have been great during the first season under Kermit Davis. However, the thing I think decides this game is the transition play of Ole Miss. Their guards often go fast and find opportunities in transition, and they will pull up from three on the break often, which are shots they would struggle to get in the half court against Oklahoma. I don't think the Sooners have the bigs to take advantage of the weakness Mississippi has in the front court, especially defensively, and I think the Rebels will force enough turnovers to get their transition opportunities and win the game.
My Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 70%
Gambling: Mississippi -1.5
5. Wisconsin vs 12. Oregon
This is a defensive battle, with two teams inside the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom. Wisconsin figures to have the advantage on that side of the ball, ranking third in that metric, and they are especially good at guarding the paint. They also have the best player in the game with Ethan Happ, and with Oregon typically playing a zone, he could carve that thing up by finding his spots. However, I think Kenny Wooten could be a pretty good matchup for him and if he can sort of neutralize Happ, alongside some double teams coming in, and it could be an effective strategy for slowing down the Badgers offense. I do struggle to see how the Ducks will score on their defense, although they have some great size in Louis King and Paul White on the wings, and I think Happ could have to guard on the perimeter, where he would struggle. I thing it'll be close, but I'm going to go with the best player on the court in Happ in a first to 50 type game.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 55%
Gambling: Wisconsin -1.5, under 117
4. Kansas State vs 13. UC Irvine
If you even know me a little bit, then you'll know that I hate Kansas State this season. They straight up can't score. They shoot 43.1% from the field, and they won't have one of their two best players, versatile big man Dean Wade, and they have to face a very good defensive team in UC Irvine. Their opponents shoot just 38% from the field, the fifth lowest mark in the nation, and they have size to match up with the Wildcats in the front court. Max Hazzard might be the second best player in the game, and I think the Anteaters have a much better offense, as anyone who watched the Big West final knows. In what should be another defensive slugfest, I think the Anteaters can absolutely stifle Kansas State and win this game, and I would be shocked if this game was decided in the last minute.
My Pick: UC Irvine
Confidence: 65%
Gambling: UC Irvine +4.5 and moneyline, under 119
6. Villanova vs 11. Saint Mary's
With the two previous games being teams that are good defensively, this one is between two of the best offensive coaches in the nation. These teams are incredible offensively, both inside the top 21 of offensive efficiency, and they run excellent offense. Starting with Villanova, Jay Wright has won two of the last three national titles, and has done it with an NBA style offense, typically playing five out and shooting a ton of threes, taking over 50% of their shots from behind the arc. As for the Gaels, Randy Bennett is one of the most underrated coaches in the country, and they do an excellent job of running a deliberate offense and getting good looks consistently. I think that the key will be Saint Mary's defense, as they allow one of the lowest percentages of three pointers against and assists against, and because of that, I think they beat Villanova in a close game.
My Pick: Saint Mary's
Confidence: 55%
Gambling: Saint Mary's +4.5, Saint Mary's money line
3. Purdue vs 14. Old Dominion
Similar to how I hate Kansas State, I have been out on Purdue all season. They have a tough first round game against the Monarchs. Old Dominion has taken down good teams, like Syracuse, this season, and their defense is excellent. They have a lot of tough defenders, especially on the perimeter, and I think that they can do a very good job of making Carsen Edwards uncomfortable. However, the real area of worry here is Old Dominion being very bad offensively. They really struggle to score, especially in the paint, and I don't see that changing against Purdue, with players like Nojel Eastern, Aaron Wheeler and Matt Haarms making a big impact on that end of the floor. I think Purdue has enough offensive firepower to pull this one out, but I wouldn't be shocked if it comes down to the wire.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 70%
Gambling: Old Dominion +12.5, under 126
7. Cincinnati vs 10. Iowa
This might be one of the easiest games to predict. Cincinnati is the perfect matchup for Iowa, especially with the Hawkeyes recent struggles, having completely fallen apart in the last month. The Bearcats play tough, physical defense, and I don't think Iowa will be able to do much of anything against them. The Hawkeyes rely pretty heavily on their offense, but the way Cincinnati plays defense should give Iowa a lot go problems, with their guards really getting up into guys like Jordan Bohannon and Joe Wieskamp.. The Hawkeyes are also pretty bad defensively, and I don't know who will matchup with Jarron Cumberland on that side of the floor. I feel pretty strongly that they will be able just absolutely dominate Iowa and this one could be over at the half.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 90%
Gambling: Cincinnati -3.5
2. Tennessee vs 15. Colgate
I think this is a game that could be a bit closer than people think. Tennessee is very good offensively, but they have taken some games off defensively and don't seem to be locked in except when they are playing some of the top teams in the country, like Kentucky. Just look at what Auburn did to them in the SEC Championship game, where the Tigers beat them by 20. Their offense, especially with their size on that end, should be more than enough to beat the Raiders, but I want to note that I love Colgate's offense, with excellent ball movement, spacing, and shooting. They are twelfth in the nation in three point percentage at 39.1% on the season, and the Vols are middle of the pack at three point defense, so I think the Raiders stick around for a while before Tennessee pulls away, but I wouldn't be shocked if that comes later than people expect.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 90%
Gambling: Colgate +17.5
Second Round
1. Virginia vs 8. Mississippi
I think this matchup really favors Virginia. I mentioned earlier that Ole Miss is great in transition, and they do a good job of forcing turnovers and allowing guys like Breein Tyree and Terence Davis to really make plays. However, that won't fly against Virginia, as the Cavaliers are excellent at holding onto the ball and controlling the pace of games. When the Rebels aren't forcing turnovers, they aren't all that good defensively, and they are pretty bad defending the three point line, allowing teams to shoot 37.2% against them, and Virginia will make them pay, as they shoot 40.9% from deep. All things are pointing to a Virginia win.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 90%
5. Wisconsin vs 13. UC Irvine
In what has to be the most defensive pod in the tournament, we get another defensive battle between two very defensive teams. The Anteaters really do a great job of taking an opposing team out of their offensive rhythm, and with their size, they can match up with Ethan Happ and Nate Reuvers in a way that most mid-majors can't. However, unlike Oregon, I don't think they really have anyone that can just take Happ out of the game, and I think he can have a big game. To be fair to UC Irvine, they defend the paint better than any team in the country, with teams shooting 40.6% against them, and that doesn't bode well for a team that relies heavily on a big man. Still, D'Mitrik Trice and Brad Davison should be able to make enough threes and defend well enough to slowly pull away in another defensive game.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 70%
11. Saint Mary's vs 3. Purdue
I really like Saint Mary's and don't like Purdue don't much, but I don't think I can take the Gaels to win this game. Purdue kind of does similar stuff to Saint Mary's on both ends, and is just better at both, or at least the numbers say they are. If you watched the Gaels play Gonzaga, you saw just how good they can be defensively against high level competition, and I think Randy Bennett will have a good gameplan for Carsen Edwards. However, I think Edwards can really exploit Jordan Ford is that is who ends up guarding him, he'd do the same to Tommy Kuhse, and they can match up pretty well with Saint Mary's defensively, so I think they take this one.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 70%
7. Cincinnati vs 2. Tennessee
You probably won't find a matchup of two more physical teams in the entire tournament. As I mentioned earlier with Cincinnati, they are incredibly tough, and they play super physically on both ends of the court. As for Tennessee, they have Admiral Schofield and Grant Williams, who look like bouncers at an exclusive club. The Bearcats have really relied on offensive rebounds this season, ranking fourth in the country in offensive rebounding rate, and I just don't think they get that against Tennessee, who although they are a little undersized in the front court, should have no problem matching the physicality of the Bearcats. I also don't think Cincinnati can guard Tennessee, especially not Williams, but this should be a pretty close game for a while before Tennessee pulls away late.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 65%
Sweet Sixteen
1. Virginia vs 5. Wisconsin
This will be the third time these two teams match up in the last two years, and a total of 185 points have been scored in those two games. Take the under in this one folks. In both of those games, Virginia has won, and I see no reason for that to change here. De'Andre Hunter guarding Ethan Happ is something I think will happen, and something I think will work very well for the Hoos, with his length and quickness bothering him. On the other end, Brad Davison against Kyle Guy in the "Who is the new Grayson Allen?" matchup should be interesting, but Guy is just better, by a pretty significant margin in my opinion, and I don't think Wisconsin can match up all that well with the Hoos. It'll be slow, and should be low scoring, but I think Virginia takes it for the third time in a row.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 75%
3. Purdue vs 2. Tennessee
This will be a game with high level offensive execution, with two teams in the top 5 in adjusted offensive efficiency in the country. This is where I think the lack of a supporting cast for Carsen Edwards really catches up to Purdue. I don't trust any of their other players on that team to get a bucket, especially against a physical defense like Tennessee. At the same time, Tennessee just executes better offensively, and I think Grady Eifert just gets murdered by Grant Williams or Admiral Schofield on the defensive end. This seems like the game where Edwards takes like 25 shots and really struggles, and Tennessee takes this one.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 70%
Elite Eight
1. Virginia vs 2. Tennessee
This is going to be a basketball junkies dream, as this is two teams who run their offense until they get a bucket, and they tend to get a bucket very often. Both are top 3 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and we've seen both of them be elite on the defensive end. I think the offensive execution in this game is going to be next level, and either result would shock me. I will say, I would be very surprised if either one of these teams doesn't make it to this point. It's close to a coin flip, but I think the best shot maker in the game is Kyle Guy, and De'Andre Hunter is a top five pick who can give Grant Williams or Admiral Schofield a lot of problems, and I think that is the difference in this game. One thing I will say is Kihei Clark just cannot play in this game, as the 5'7" point guard will be so outmatched physically against guys like Jordan Bone and Lamonte Turner that it would be a nightmare. Still, I like the Cavaliers to pull this one out in a close game.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 55%
1. Virginia vs 16. Gardner-Webb
This game will be watched for one big reason: Gardner-Webb beat two ACC teams this season, and are looking to add a third. But for real, Virginia of course lost to UMBC in the 1-16 matchup last year, and they'll be looking to not repeat that this season, and I think they will be coming out very strong. I have been saying for most of the season that I think Virginia is going to beat the 16 seed they play by about 50 points, and they seem like they are going to come out firing. Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy, and De'Andre Hunter are all incredible players, and they all light it up from behind the arc, and their defense should be able to stifle the Runnin' Bulldogs in this game. Give me the Cavaliers all day long.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 99%
Gambling: Virginia -22
8. Mississippi vs 9. Oklahoma
This is a classic offense versus defense battle, with the Rebels running and gunning, and the Sooners locking their opponents down. It should be an interesting battle, but I know that I lean towards the Rebels. For one, I just like Mississippi more, and they have been great during the first season under Kermit Davis. However, the thing I think decides this game is the transition play of Ole Miss. Their guards often go fast and find opportunities in transition, and they will pull up from three on the break often, which are shots they would struggle to get in the half court against Oklahoma. I don't think the Sooners have the bigs to take advantage of the weakness Mississippi has in the front court, especially defensively, and I think the Rebels will force enough turnovers to get their transition opportunities and win the game.
My Pick: Mississippi
Confidence: 70%
Gambling: Mississippi -1.5
5. Wisconsin vs 12. Oregon
This is a defensive battle, with two teams inside the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom. Wisconsin figures to have the advantage on that side of the ball, ranking third in that metric, and they are especially good at guarding the paint. They also have the best player in the game with Ethan Happ, and with Oregon typically playing a zone, he could carve that thing up by finding his spots. However, I think Kenny Wooten could be a pretty good matchup for him and if he can sort of neutralize Happ, alongside some double teams coming in, and it could be an effective strategy for slowing down the Badgers offense. I do struggle to see how the Ducks will score on their defense, although they have some great size in Louis King and Paul White on the wings, and I think Happ could have to guard on the perimeter, where he would struggle. I thing it'll be close, but I'm going to go with the best player on the court in Happ in a first to 50 type game.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 55%
Gambling: Wisconsin -1.5, under 117
4. Kansas State vs 13. UC Irvine
If you even know me a little bit, then you'll know that I hate Kansas State this season. They straight up can't score. They shoot 43.1% from the field, and they won't have one of their two best players, versatile big man Dean Wade, and they have to face a very good defensive team in UC Irvine. Their opponents shoot just 38% from the field, the fifth lowest mark in the nation, and they have size to match up with the Wildcats in the front court. Max Hazzard might be the second best player in the game, and I think the Anteaters have a much better offense, as anyone who watched the Big West final knows. In what should be another defensive slugfest, I think the Anteaters can absolutely stifle Kansas State and win this game, and I would be shocked if this game was decided in the last minute.
My Pick: UC Irvine
Confidence: 65%
Gambling: UC Irvine +4.5 and moneyline, under 119
6. Villanova vs 11. Saint Mary's
With the two previous games being teams that are good defensively, this one is between two of the best offensive coaches in the nation. These teams are incredible offensively, both inside the top 21 of offensive efficiency, and they run excellent offense. Starting with Villanova, Jay Wright has won two of the last three national titles, and has done it with an NBA style offense, typically playing five out and shooting a ton of threes, taking over 50% of their shots from behind the arc. As for the Gaels, Randy Bennett is one of the most underrated coaches in the country, and they do an excellent job of running a deliberate offense and getting good looks consistently. I think that the key will be Saint Mary's defense, as they allow one of the lowest percentages of three pointers against and assists against, and because of that, I think they beat Villanova in a close game.
My Pick: Saint Mary's
Confidence: 55%
Gambling: Saint Mary's +4.5, Saint Mary's money line
3. Purdue vs 14. Old Dominion
Similar to how I hate Kansas State, I have been out on Purdue all season. They have a tough first round game against the Monarchs. Old Dominion has taken down good teams, like Syracuse, this season, and their defense is excellent. They have a lot of tough defenders, especially on the perimeter, and I think that they can do a very good job of making Carsen Edwards uncomfortable. However, the real area of worry here is Old Dominion being very bad offensively. They really struggle to score, especially in the paint, and I don't see that changing against Purdue, with players like Nojel Eastern, Aaron Wheeler and Matt Haarms making a big impact on that end of the floor. I think Purdue has enough offensive firepower to pull this one out, but I wouldn't be shocked if it comes down to the wire.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 70%
Gambling: Old Dominion +12.5, under 126
7. Cincinnati vs 10. Iowa
This might be one of the easiest games to predict. Cincinnati is the perfect matchup for Iowa, especially with the Hawkeyes recent struggles, having completely fallen apart in the last month. The Bearcats play tough, physical defense, and I don't think Iowa will be able to do much of anything against them. The Hawkeyes rely pretty heavily on their offense, but the way Cincinnati plays defense should give Iowa a lot go problems, with their guards really getting up into guys like Jordan Bohannon and Joe Wieskamp.. The Hawkeyes are also pretty bad defensively, and I don't know who will matchup with Jarron Cumberland on that side of the floor. I feel pretty strongly that they will be able just absolutely dominate Iowa and this one could be over at the half.
My Pick: Cincinnati
Confidence: 90%
Gambling: Cincinnati -3.5
2. Tennessee vs 15. Colgate
I think this is a game that could be a bit closer than people think. Tennessee is very good offensively, but they have taken some games off defensively and don't seem to be locked in except when they are playing some of the top teams in the country, like Kentucky. Just look at what Auburn did to them in the SEC Championship game, where the Tigers beat them by 20. Their offense, especially with their size on that end, should be more than enough to beat the Raiders, but I want to note that I love Colgate's offense, with excellent ball movement, spacing, and shooting. They are twelfth in the nation in three point percentage at 39.1% on the season, and the Vols are middle of the pack at three point defense, so I think the Raiders stick around for a while before Tennessee pulls away, but I wouldn't be shocked if that comes later than people expect.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 90%
Gambling: Colgate +17.5
Second Round
1. Virginia vs 8. Mississippi
I think this matchup really favors Virginia. I mentioned earlier that Ole Miss is great in transition, and they do a good job of forcing turnovers and allowing guys like Breein Tyree and Terence Davis to really make plays. However, that won't fly against Virginia, as the Cavaliers are excellent at holding onto the ball and controlling the pace of games. When the Rebels aren't forcing turnovers, they aren't all that good defensively, and they are pretty bad defending the three point line, allowing teams to shoot 37.2% against them, and Virginia will make them pay, as they shoot 40.9% from deep. All things are pointing to a Virginia win.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 90%
5. Wisconsin vs 13. UC Irvine
In what has to be the most defensive pod in the tournament, we get another defensive battle between two very defensive teams. The Anteaters really do a great job of taking an opposing team out of their offensive rhythm, and with their size, they can match up with Ethan Happ and Nate Reuvers in a way that most mid-majors can't. However, unlike Oregon, I don't think they really have anyone that can just take Happ out of the game, and I think he can have a big game. To be fair to UC Irvine, they defend the paint better than any team in the country, with teams shooting 40.6% against them, and that doesn't bode well for a team that relies heavily on a big man. Still, D'Mitrik Trice and Brad Davison should be able to make enough threes and defend well enough to slowly pull away in another defensive game.
My Pick: Wisconsin
Confidence: 70%
11. Saint Mary's vs 3. Purdue
I really like Saint Mary's and don't like Purdue don't much, but I don't think I can take the Gaels to win this game. Purdue kind of does similar stuff to Saint Mary's on both ends, and is just better at both, or at least the numbers say they are. If you watched the Gaels play Gonzaga, you saw just how good they can be defensively against high level competition, and I think Randy Bennett will have a good gameplan for Carsen Edwards. However, I think Edwards can really exploit Jordan Ford is that is who ends up guarding him, he'd do the same to Tommy Kuhse, and they can match up pretty well with Saint Mary's defensively, so I think they take this one.
My Pick: Purdue
Confidence: 70%
7. Cincinnati vs 2. Tennessee
You probably won't find a matchup of two more physical teams in the entire tournament. As I mentioned earlier with Cincinnati, they are incredibly tough, and they play super physically on both ends of the court. As for Tennessee, they have Admiral Schofield and Grant Williams, who look like bouncers at an exclusive club. The Bearcats have really relied on offensive rebounds this season, ranking fourth in the country in offensive rebounding rate, and I just don't think they get that against Tennessee, who although they are a little undersized in the front court, should have no problem matching the physicality of the Bearcats. I also don't think Cincinnati can guard Tennessee, especially not Williams, but this should be a pretty close game for a while before Tennessee pulls away late.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 65%
Sweet Sixteen
1. Virginia vs 5. Wisconsin
This will be the third time these two teams match up in the last two years, and a total of 185 points have been scored in those two games. Take the under in this one folks. In both of those games, Virginia has won, and I see no reason for that to change here. De'Andre Hunter guarding Ethan Happ is something I think will happen, and something I think will work very well for the Hoos, with his length and quickness bothering him. On the other end, Brad Davison against Kyle Guy in the "Who is the new Grayson Allen?" matchup should be interesting, but Guy is just better, by a pretty significant margin in my opinion, and I don't think Wisconsin can match up all that well with the Hoos. It'll be slow, and should be low scoring, but I think Virginia takes it for the third time in a row.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 75%
3. Purdue vs 2. Tennessee
This will be a game with high level offensive execution, with two teams in the top 5 in adjusted offensive efficiency in the country. This is where I think the lack of a supporting cast for Carsen Edwards really catches up to Purdue. I don't trust any of their other players on that team to get a bucket, especially against a physical defense like Tennessee. At the same time, Tennessee just executes better offensively, and I think Grady Eifert just gets murdered by Grant Williams or Admiral Schofield on the defensive end. This seems like the game where Edwards takes like 25 shots and really struggles, and Tennessee takes this one.
My Pick: Tennessee
Confidence: 70%
Elite Eight
1. Virginia vs 2. Tennessee
This is going to be a basketball junkies dream, as this is two teams who run their offense until they get a bucket, and they tend to get a bucket very often. Both are top 3 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and we've seen both of them be elite on the defensive end. I think the offensive execution in this game is going to be next level, and either result would shock me. I will say, I would be very surprised if either one of these teams doesn't make it to this point. It's close to a coin flip, but I think the best shot maker in the game is Kyle Guy, and De'Andre Hunter is a top five pick who can give Grant Williams or Admiral Schofield a lot of problems, and I think that is the difference in this game. One thing I will say is Kihei Clark just cannot play in this game, as the 5'7" point guard will be so outmatched physically against guys like Jordan Bone and Lamonte Turner that it would be a nightmare. Still, I like the Cavaliers to pull this one out in a close game.
My Pick: Virginia
Confidence: 55%
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