Season in Review
The King is dead! The King is dead! After 14 years atop the Big 12, Kansas did not win a share of the title this season. It was one of the most impressive streaks in college basketball history, but it was finally snapped this season, as the Jayhawks dealt with injuries, underperforming players, and struggles away from home. It was their in-state rivals Kansas State as well as Texas Tech who capitalized, tying atop the conference. We also saw West Virginia collapse without Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles this season, winning just four games in the conference and kick multiple players off of the team, and it was a season to forget for Bub Huggins. Meanwhile, Baylor had one of the craziest seasons, losing to Texas Southern and Stephen F Austin in non-conference play, and lost star big Tristian Clark early in conference play, yet somehow improved, and finished 10-8 in conference. It really seems like anyone can beat anyone else, so the tournament should be a ton of fun.
Bracket
Contenders
Kansas State (24-7, 14-4)
The Wildcats made an Elite Eight run last season, and entered this year with heightened expectations. They never seemed to reach the heights of last season, despite winning the Big 12, as they lost puzzling games to Tulsa and Texas A&M during the season. Still, they have a strong defense, ranking sixth in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, and they play a tough brand of basketball that no one wants to face. They happen to lead the conference in steals per game, and it is hard to get an easy bucket against their defense. The other side of the ball is a problem, especially with the health of versatile big man Dean Wade up in the air. He has been key to their offense all year, and whenever he hasn't played, they really struggle. If he can play, then Kansas State will be tough to beat, but without him, they could have some trouble.
Texas Tech (26-5, 14-4)
The Red Raiders have now exceeded expectations for two straight seasons under Chris Beard. After losing six of their top eight scorers from last season, Chris Beard managed to have some breakout players, bring in impact transfers and recruits, and they had a huge year. Their defense ranked top in adjusted defensive efficiency, and every player plays incredibly hard on that end of the court. They are certainly not a team I would want to try and score on, and whoever faces them better be ready for a battle on that end of the floor. They also have Big 12 Player of the Year Jarrett Culver, and he has helped spearhead an improving offense. They have started to get their threes to fall recently, and that has helped them win nine straight games. I think they are the favorite in the tournament because of their stingy defense and a pretty good offense.
Sleeper Teams
Kansas (23-8, 12-6)
As weird as it sounds to call the Jayhawks a sleeper, no one is talking about them despite finishing in third with two games separating them from the next closest team. The Jayhawks still have a ton of talent, with Dedric Lawson and Devon Dotson appearing on my All-Conference teams, and a talented freshman class that has been improving all season. One thing I would watch for is a breakout from Quentin Grimes. The five star freshman has struggled since the opening night when he has a big performance against Michigan State, but he has been slowly improving. He sort of mirrors the season Malik Newman had last season, as he really broke out in the postseason for the Jayhawks. They still have Bill Self, they still have talent, and they still won 12 conference games. They are absolutely a threat to win it all, even if they lost the streak.
Oklahoma State (12-19, 5-13)
Similar to my Rutgers pick in the Big Ten, Oklahoma State is a team that can really mess things up for a title contender. The Cowboys have been playing their best basketball of the season recently as their young players continue to improve. They aren't deep, but they come in having won two straight, and are 3-3 in their last six, with an overtime loss to Texas Tech and a close loss to Kansas. They do one thing well that will scare their opponents, and that's shoot it. They have made 37.6% of their threes on the year, and with Thomas Dziagwa and Lindy Waters getting the ultimate green light to jack up threes with reckless abandon, they will certainly be making noise from deep. If those two get hot, this team will be a tough out.
Bubble Watch
Baylor
Threat Level: Starting to Worry
The Bears have to feel pretty good about their standing right now. While they didn't do themselves any favors in the non-conference by losing to Texas Southern and Stephen F Austin, they beat Texas Tech in Big 12 play, and having 10 wins in one of the best conferences in the sport speaks for itself. But, they have lost three straight, and adding a first round exit can't help. They are currently projected as a 9 seed on Bracket Matrix, and a loss to Iowa State wouldn't be the end of the world, so they should be good barring a ton of bid stealers, but things are starting to get tense in Waco.
Oklahoma
Threat Level: Low
The Sooners are projected as the last 8 seed, so they should be good no matter what. Their win over Wofford has aged brilliantly, and victories over fellow bubble teams Florida, Creighton, TCU (twice), and Texas give them an edge as Selection Sunday approaches. Still, a 7-11 conference record isn't pretty and they are one of the teams that has been attacked by those advocating for more mid majors getting in, and while I don't think they are as safe as they may appear, their win over Kansas should be enough, but if they lose a second game to West Virginia, that would be a problem.
TCU
Threat Level: High Alert
The Horned Frogs are in the thick of the bubble race, currently sitting as an 11 seed on Bracket Matrix, but they feel much less secure. They are among the last four in on many brackets, and their 7-11 record in conference play should be sounding off alarm bells. Partnered with a weak non-conference schedule and a poor performance of late losing 6 of 8 to close out the season, the Horned Frogs resume is nothing to write home about. They are relying on a sweep of Iowa State and a win over Florida right now, and should they lose to Oklahoma State in their first round matchup, they would be in real trouble.
Texas
Threat Level: High Alert
The Longhorns have backed themselves into a situation where they need to beat Kansas in the first round to get in. They are currently the first team out, and as more bid stealers emerge, they could move even lower. A win over Kansas would be huge, as the Longhorns would then have victories over North Carolina, Purdue, Iowa State, Kansas State, and two over Kansas. However, their losses to Radford, Providence, and Oklahoma State can't be overlooked, and they are 8-10 in conference and 16-15 on the year. Should they fall to the Jayhawks, it would be very hard for them to get in with a .500 record, so they are playing for their lives, and maybe Shaka Smart's job, in their first game.
Players to Watch
Barry Brown
Stats: 15.1 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 2.8 APG, 2 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 44.6/30.2/70.5
With Dean Wade looking more and more like he'll be missing the Big 12 Tournament, Kansas State will need Barry Brown to step up. The guard is currently fifth in the Big 12 in scoring, and he will need to perform at his best for Kansas State to advance. A great athlete and finisher at the rim with an inconsistent jumper, Brown has been key for the Wildcats offense this season. When Wade was out earlier in the year, Brown averaged 15.3 points a game, and I think he'll need to do more than that for the Wildcats to go on a deep run.
Jarrett Culver
Stats: 18.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.3 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 48.7/33.9/70.1
The Player of the Year in the conference, Culver had a breakout sophomore year. He established himself as an NBA lottery pick, and he filled the shoes left behind by Keenan Evans last season admirably. He is third in the conference in scoring, and he's got very good length and athleticism, which allows him to attack the rim and finish at will. He also has a good jumper and is a good playmaker for others, which makes him tough to guard. He also comes into the tournament after scoring a career high 31 points in the last regular season game, and if he continues that scoring pace, it'll be tough to stop the Red Raiders.
Dedric Lawson
Stats: 19.1 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 49.1/36/80.3
Lawson came over from Memphis, and in his first season in Lawrence, he was a superstar. In a year with tons of question marks for the Jayhawks, Lawson was the one constant, providing great play night in and night out. He led the conference in both points and rebounds, and despite having to adjust to different systems based on a changing roster alongside him, he posted 20 double doubles. He can shoot it from deep, has a wide variety of post moves, possess good ball handling skills and vision and will run point on the fast break after a rebound, and he is so tough to guard because of his versatility offensively. He will have a big tournament and could spur the Jayhawks on a run.
Marial Shayok
Stats: 18.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 49.6/39.6/87.7
The transfer from Virginia shined in his lone season in Ames, posting the second most points a game in the Big 12. He broke out with more offensive freedom than he was allowed at Virginia, and he was a machine for the Cyclones. With enough speed to get past his man and finish at the rim, a good jumper both off the catch and pulling up, and range that extends past the three point line, he has been tough to guard all season. I expect that to continue in the tournament as Iowa State looks to go on a deep run.
My All Conference Teams
First Team
G: Barry Brown, Kansas State
G: Jarrett Culver, Texas Tech
F: Dean Wade, Kansas State
F: Dedric Lawson, Kansas
F: Marial Shayok, Iowa State
Second Team
G: Kerwin Roach, Texas
G: Christian James, Oklahoma
G: Desmond Bane, TCU
G: Makai Mason, Baylor
F: Cameron McGriff, Oklahoma State
Third Team
G: Devon Dotson, Kansas
G: Alex Robinson, TCU
G: Davide Moretti, Texas Tech
F: Kouat Noi, TCU
F: Jaxson Hayes, Texas
My Pick: Texas Tech over Iowa State
I didn't really touch on the Cyclones, but they are incredibly streaky and I think they can get hot from behind the arc and make a run to the finals, even though they have lost their last three games. They get the benefit of playing a Dean Wade-less Kansas State, and I think they can beat that team. However, they won't be able to beat the Red Raiders, who dispatch Kansas in a thriller in the previous round, and their defense along with their hot shooting leads them to the Big 12 title they didn't get last season.
The King is dead! The King is dead! After 14 years atop the Big 12, Kansas did not win a share of the title this season. It was one of the most impressive streaks in college basketball history, but it was finally snapped this season, as the Jayhawks dealt with injuries, underperforming players, and struggles away from home. It was their in-state rivals Kansas State as well as Texas Tech who capitalized, tying atop the conference. We also saw West Virginia collapse without Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles this season, winning just four games in the conference and kick multiple players off of the team, and it was a season to forget for Bub Huggins. Meanwhile, Baylor had one of the craziest seasons, losing to Texas Southern and Stephen F Austin in non-conference play, and lost star big Tristian Clark early in conference play, yet somehow improved, and finished 10-8 in conference. It really seems like anyone can beat anyone else, so the tournament should be a ton of fun.
Bracket
Contenders
Kansas State (24-7, 14-4)
The Wildcats made an Elite Eight run last season, and entered this year with heightened expectations. They never seemed to reach the heights of last season, despite winning the Big 12, as they lost puzzling games to Tulsa and Texas A&M during the season. Still, they have a strong defense, ranking sixth in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency, and they play a tough brand of basketball that no one wants to face. They happen to lead the conference in steals per game, and it is hard to get an easy bucket against their defense. The other side of the ball is a problem, especially with the health of versatile big man Dean Wade up in the air. He has been key to their offense all year, and whenever he hasn't played, they really struggle. If he can play, then Kansas State will be tough to beat, but without him, they could have some trouble.
Texas Tech (26-5, 14-4)
The Red Raiders have now exceeded expectations for two straight seasons under Chris Beard. After losing six of their top eight scorers from last season, Chris Beard managed to have some breakout players, bring in impact transfers and recruits, and they had a huge year. Their defense ranked top in adjusted defensive efficiency, and every player plays incredibly hard on that end of the court. They are certainly not a team I would want to try and score on, and whoever faces them better be ready for a battle on that end of the floor. They also have Big 12 Player of the Year Jarrett Culver, and he has helped spearhead an improving offense. They have started to get their threes to fall recently, and that has helped them win nine straight games. I think they are the favorite in the tournament because of their stingy defense and a pretty good offense.
Sleeper Teams
Kansas (23-8, 12-6)
As weird as it sounds to call the Jayhawks a sleeper, no one is talking about them despite finishing in third with two games separating them from the next closest team. The Jayhawks still have a ton of talent, with Dedric Lawson and Devon Dotson appearing on my All-Conference teams, and a talented freshman class that has been improving all season. One thing I would watch for is a breakout from Quentin Grimes. The five star freshman has struggled since the opening night when he has a big performance against Michigan State, but he has been slowly improving. He sort of mirrors the season Malik Newman had last season, as he really broke out in the postseason for the Jayhawks. They still have Bill Self, they still have talent, and they still won 12 conference games. They are absolutely a threat to win it all, even if they lost the streak.
Oklahoma State (12-19, 5-13)
Similar to my Rutgers pick in the Big Ten, Oklahoma State is a team that can really mess things up for a title contender. The Cowboys have been playing their best basketball of the season recently as their young players continue to improve. They aren't deep, but they come in having won two straight, and are 3-3 in their last six, with an overtime loss to Texas Tech and a close loss to Kansas. They do one thing well that will scare their opponents, and that's shoot it. They have made 37.6% of their threes on the year, and with Thomas Dziagwa and Lindy Waters getting the ultimate green light to jack up threes with reckless abandon, they will certainly be making noise from deep. If those two get hot, this team will be a tough out.
Bubble Watch
Baylor
Threat Level: Starting to Worry
The Bears have to feel pretty good about their standing right now. While they didn't do themselves any favors in the non-conference by losing to Texas Southern and Stephen F Austin, they beat Texas Tech in Big 12 play, and having 10 wins in one of the best conferences in the sport speaks for itself. But, they have lost three straight, and adding a first round exit can't help. They are currently projected as a 9 seed on Bracket Matrix, and a loss to Iowa State wouldn't be the end of the world, so they should be good barring a ton of bid stealers, but things are starting to get tense in Waco.
Oklahoma
Threat Level: Low
The Sooners are projected as the last 8 seed, so they should be good no matter what. Their win over Wofford has aged brilliantly, and victories over fellow bubble teams Florida, Creighton, TCU (twice), and Texas give them an edge as Selection Sunday approaches. Still, a 7-11 conference record isn't pretty and they are one of the teams that has been attacked by those advocating for more mid majors getting in, and while I don't think they are as safe as they may appear, their win over Kansas should be enough, but if they lose a second game to West Virginia, that would be a problem.
Threat Level: High Alert
The Horned Frogs are in the thick of the bubble race, currently sitting as an 11 seed on Bracket Matrix, but they feel much less secure. They are among the last four in on many brackets, and their 7-11 record in conference play should be sounding off alarm bells. Partnered with a weak non-conference schedule and a poor performance of late losing 6 of 8 to close out the season, the Horned Frogs resume is nothing to write home about. They are relying on a sweep of Iowa State and a win over Florida right now, and should they lose to Oklahoma State in their first round matchup, they would be in real trouble.
Threat Level: High Alert
The Longhorns have backed themselves into a situation where they need to beat Kansas in the first round to get in. They are currently the first team out, and as more bid stealers emerge, they could move even lower. A win over Kansas would be huge, as the Longhorns would then have victories over North Carolina, Purdue, Iowa State, Kansas State, and two over Kansas. However, their losses to Radford, Providence, and Oklahoma State can't be overlooked, and they are 8-10 in conference and 16-15 on the year. Should they fall to the Jayhawks, it would be very hard for them to get in with a .500 record, so they are playing for their lives, and maybe Shaka Smart's job, in their first game.
Players to Watch
Barry Brown
Stats: 15.1 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 2.8 APG, 2 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 44.6/30.2/70.5
With Dean Wade looking more and more like he'll be missing the Big 12 Tournament, Kansas State will need Barry Brown to step up. The guard is currently fifth in the Big 12 in scoring, and he will need to perform at his best for Kansas State to advance. A great athlete and finisher at the rim with an inconsistent jumper, Brown has been key for the Wildcats offense this season. When Wade was out earlier in the year, Brown averaged 15.3 points a game, and I think he'll need to do more than that for the Wildcats to go on a deep run.
Jarrett Culver
Stats: 18.3 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.3 SPG, 0.4 BPG, 48.7/33.9/70.1
The Player of the Year in the conference, Culver had a breakout sophomore year. He established himself as an NBA lottery pick, and he filled the shoes left behind by Keenan Evans last season admirably. He is third in the conference in scoring, and he's got very good length and athleticism, which allows him to attack the rim and finish at will. He also has a good jumper and is a good playmaker for others, which makes him tough to guard. He also comes into the tournament after scoring a career high 31 points in the last regular season game, and if he continues that scoring pace, it'll be tough to stop the Red Raiders.
Stats: 19.1 PPG, 10.6 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.2 SPG, 1.1 BPG, 49.1/36/80.3
Lawson came over from Memphis, and in his first season in Lawrence, he was a superstar. In a year with tons of question marks for the Jayhawks, Lawson was the one constant, providing great play night in and night out. He led the conference in both points and rebounds, and despite having to adjust to different systems based on a changing roster alongside him, he posted 20 double doubles. He can shoot it from deep, has a wide variety of post moves, possess good ball handling skills and vision and will run point on the fast break after a rebound, and he is so tough to guard because of his versatility offensively. He will have a big tournament and could spur the Jayhawks on a run.
Stats: 18.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 2 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.2 BPG, 49.6/39.6/87.7
The transfer from Virginia shined in his lone season in Ames, posting the second most points a game in the Big 12. He broke out with more offensive freedom than he was allowed at Virginia, and he was a machine for the Cyclones. With enough speed to get past his man and finish at the rim, a good jumper both off the catch and pulling up, and range that extends past the three point line, he has been tough to guard all season. I expect that to continue in the tournament as Iowa State looks to go on a deep run.
My All Conference Teams
First Team
G: Barry Brown, Kansas State
G: Jarrett Culver, Texas Tech
F: Dean Wade, Kansas State
F: Dedric Lawson, Kansas
F: Marial Shayok, Iowa State
Second Team
G: Kerwin Roach, Texas
G: Christian James, Oklahoma
G: Desmond Bane, TCU
G: Makai Mason, Baylor
F: Cameron McGriff, Oklahoma State
Third Team
G: Devon Dotson, Kansas
G: Alex Robinson, TCU
G: Davide Moretti, Texas Tech
F: Kouat Noi, TCU
F: Jaxson Hayes, Texas
My Pick: Texas Tech over Iowa State
I didn't really touch on the Cyclones, but they are incredibly streaky and I think they can get hot from behind the arc and make a run to the finals, even though they have lost their last three games. They get the benefit of playing a Dean Wade-less Kansas State, and I think they can beat that team. However, they won't be able to beat the Red Raiders, who dispatch Kansas in a thriller in the previous round, and their defense along with their hot shooting leads them to the Big 12 title they didn't get last season.
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