It was great to see NCAA Tournament basketball back last night, and boy was it fun. Both teams in this region that played last night were in close, exciting games, both being decided by just one point. If that's a sign of even half of what's to come this weekend, then we are in for a thrilling tournament. Anyways, here is my preview of the West region. The favorite heading into March, Gonzaga, headlines the region and they'll be looking to stay perfect, being the first team to do so since Indiana in 1975-76. There's also some other really good teams in this one, and some matchups I'm really excited about, so let's dive in. Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter @ThreePointRange to stay up to date with my thoughts throughout the tournament, and click here to see all of my other previews, along with anything else you may want in terms of March Madness content from me.
1. Gonzaga vs 16. Norfolk State
Line: Gonzaga -34, o/u 155
Preview: I mean Gonzaga's gonna win this game. I'm happy to see Norfolk State win, they played a great first half against Appalachian State, although it almost got away from them in the second. They'll mix up defenses in an attempt to slow down the mighty Gonzaga offense. I don't think it will work. They just have too many weapons for the Spartans to deal with. Guarding Drew Timme in the post seems very difficult for the Spartans. They allowed a lot of good looks from three to Appalachian State, and that's not an option against Gonzaga, because Corey Kispert will make you pay. Jalen Suggs is just flat out better than anyone on Norfolk State, or anyone they've come against this year. He's going to be a lottery pick and wish good reason, since he's putting up 14.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists. They're deep too, with a guy like Julian Strawther, who would be a star at many other schools as a freshman, averaging a little over 8 minutes a game. I actually think Norfolk State might be able to cover here, they have a lot of fight and I think the constant switching of defenses could keep it close-ish, but I mean I think we all know the Zags win this. Then again, I would have said the same thing about Virginia in 2018, so what do I know.
My Pick: Gonzaga
ATS: Norfolk State +34
8. Oklahoma vs 9. Missouri
Line: Oklahoma -1.5, o/u 141
Preview: Much like the Virginia Tech-Florida matchup in the South region, this is a really "meh" game that I don't have any super strong thoughts on. Let's start with the higher seed, the Sooners. They're led by Austin Reaves, a guard who is really difficult to guard. Not because he's a super athlete, but because of his super high IQ and "old man game". He can shoot it really well, although his three point percentage is lower because he is taking so many contested jumpers, and he's been shooting much better after a slow start to the season from behind the arc. But what he loves to do is pump fake and draw fouls. He's very adept at drawing contact, and the Tigers defenders will have to be well disciplined and stay on their feet to stop him. Luckily, Dru Smith can do just that. He is one of the better perimeter defenders in the SEC, and has the size and athleticism to keep Reaves in front of him. Turning Reaves over could be a path to victory as well, ball security has been an issue when the Sooners have lost this season. Elsewhere, transfer guards Umoja Gibson and Elijah Harkness provide some more scoring punch, especially Gibson, shooting 40% from deep. Perhaps the best weapon the Sooners have in this one is big man Brady Manek, who can really stretch the floor, and it could be a mismatch against Tigers big Jeremiah Tillman. The pick and pop combos of Reaves or Gibsons and Manek could be devastating, either forcing switches to let the guards attack, or finding Manek in space. However, Oklahoma will be without De'Vion Harmon, their second leading scorer, putting them at a disadvantage in this one. For the Tigers, Tillman against Manek in the post should be a nice matchup for them offensively. He has the strength advantage there, and should be able to get solid looks at the rim. Elsewhere, Dru Smith should dictate the offense, tied for the team lead in points per game with 14.1 and leading Mizzou in assists. The key here could be outside shooting, with Smith, Xavier Pinson, and Mark Smith needing to make their shots from deep, as they have been streaky this season. Pinson in particular can be a really dangerous threat when he's firing from deep. It's a close matchup, but I think the loss of De'Vion Harmon swings this one in the favor of the Tigers. He's such an important player for the Sooners, and not having him can really take them out of their groove on both ends of the floor. Missouri is still susceptible to a cold shooting night, but I like the Tigers to win.
My Pick: Missouri
ATS: Missouri +1.5
5. Creighton vs 12. UC Santa Barbara
Line: Creighton -7.5, o/u 138
Preview: As always, the 5-12 game is close, with a dangerous mid major in UC Santa Barbara taking on a potentially vulnerable Creighton squad. Can the Gauchos pull off the upset? I certainly think they can. They have a bevy of high major transfers, and are a really well coached team under Joe Pasternack. The star of their roster is Big West Player of the Year Jaquori McLaughlin, an Oregon State transfer who is averaging 16.2 points a game this year along with 5.2 assists. He's a three level scorer with the type of length and athleticism that you expect to see at a high major. They have high major levels of size, athleticism, and talent all over the court, it's not just McLaughlin. Their other guards and wings are Devearl Ramsey (6'0" Nevada transfer), Ajare Sanni (6'3" Pacific transfer), Brandon Cyrus (6'5" DePaul transfer), Josh Pierre-Louis (6'4; Temple transfer) and Destin Barnes (6'7" Boston and Jacksonville transfer). All of those guys contribute, whether it be with scoring, defense, or veteran leadership. Up front, the story is similar. The name to know is Amadou Sow, one of the few players who isn't a transfer, but you'd be forgiven for thinking he'd played at the high major level. A contributor from Day 1 at UCSB, Sow has averaged double figures for three straight years while manning the post in Santa Barbara. He's very physical and can overwhelm Big West opponents, but he also has post moves that should hold up against high majors. They also added 6'10" Oregon transfer Miles Norris, who is not only big, but he can shoot it from deep, hitting 38.5% from three. The Gauchos top guys can all shoot it from deep with the exception of Sow, and they can potentially cause problems for Creighton, a team not exactly known for their defense. But with that comes the fact that the Blue Jays are an elite offensive team. They have 5 double figure scorers, and are led by Marcus Zegarowski, one of the best point guards in the country. He's having a down year, and still averaging 15.5 points, 4.3 assists, and shooting 41.2% from behind the arc. The entire team shoots it, although not as well as you may be used to from Creighton, only making 36.7% of their shots from deep. Denzel Mahoney, Damien Jefferson, Alex O'Connell, and especially Mitch Ballock are all threats from deep, and UCSB will have to stay keyed in on taking away the arc. Plus, Christian Bishop has been excellent this year as a pick and roll roller, and he's a good athlete that should test Sow. Norris will also be forced to depend in space, especially if Ballock is at the four, which is something that happens sometimes, and that could be tough for the Gauchos defensively. Creighton did also have some stuff with Greg McDermott and his suspension for some remarks that I don't really want to get into, but it's a thing. This is a tough one to pick. The Blue Jays did just get waxed by Georgetown in the Big East title game, while UCSB comes in having won 18 of 19 and beating UC Irvine by 16 in the Big West tournament final, so momentum would seem to favor the Gauchos. It's close, but I think Zegarowski can outduel McLaughlin in this game. I think the Gauchos cover but Creighton edges it out, maybe in overtime.
My Pick: Creighton
ATS: UC Santa Barbara +7.5
4. Virginia vs 13. Ohio
Line: Virginia -7, o/u 131
Preview: This would be an intriguing game regardless, but there is an elephant in the room here. Virginia won't be traveling to Indianapolis until Friday, one day before their game, and are quarantining until then because of COVID issues within their program. They had to back out of the ACC Tournament last week because of this, and it's hard to imagine it won't impact them before this one. We don't even know who is going to play, and they're going to need their full contingent of players, because Ohio is a really live dog here. You just need to ask Illinois how dangerous this team is, because the Illini were pushed to the brink in their opening game by the Bobcats, with Ohio ultimately losing 77-75 in a really tight contest. So this is clearly a team that can play with the best in the country, and they will probably have the best player on the floor with their point guard Jason Preston. He's a future pro, and he averaged 16.6 points, 7.2 assists, 6.8 rebounds, and 1.5 steals this season. If that wasn't enough, he shoots 40.8% from three, and also stands at 6'4", which is obviously great size for a guard and could cause some real problems for the smaller Kihei Clark, who typically guards the point of attack for the Cavaliers. He can do it all, and Tony Bennett will have his hands full trying to contain him. However, he's not the only threat the Bobcats possess. Down low, senior forward Dwight Wilson has been an effective post scorer, averaging 14.9 points to go along with 7.5 boards this season. Next to him is floor spacer Ben Vander Plas, who is typically the second option on the offensive end, and while he averages less points than Wilson, 12.8 a game this season, he shoots well from deep and moves the ball well for a big man, and is involved heavily on the perimeter. On the wing, Ben Roderick and Lunden McDay shoot it well from deep, helping space the floor for Preston to do work. Having shooters is a great way to break down Virginia's defense, as they want to pack it in, but shooting over the top can beat the Hoos on that end, and the Bobcats can do that. It's not all doom and gloom for Tony Bennett though. On offense, Virginia should still be pretty effective. I don't know how Ohio guards Jay Huff, the big man on Virginia who will have a significant size advantage over Wilson and should do well on the offensive glass, an area where he thrives. He can also step out and shoot from deep, so he'll be tough to guard for Ohio. Sam Hauser is another guy who should find an advantageous matchup. The Marquette transfer leads the team in scoring, with 16 points a game, and and shoots 43.4% from beyond the arc. He has size too, so you can't just stick a wing on him, because he'll take them into the post and either hit a turn around over you or back you down and get a shot at the rim. Forward Trey Murphy presents similar issues, although he isn't quite as skilled as Hauser. Of course, Clark will run the offense, and he never seems to be bother by the size differential, so the 7 inches Preston have on him may not matter. Honestly, my biggest key to this game is three point shooting. For Ohio, they have to be able to hit shots to score against a Virginia defense that wants to take away the paint, and they have the ability to do so. On the other side, how will Virginia look coming off a COVID pause with probably only one practice prior to the game? Will they struggle to stay in game rhythm and maybe struggle a bit from beyond the arc? I certainly think it's possible, and I like a lot of the things going for the Bobcats in this matchup. Jason Preston is a stud, and I think they can hit threes and keep it close throughout. Add in that we don't know who is playing for Virginia and they don't have a ton of prep time, and I like Ohio to win this matchup.
My Pick: Ohio
ATS: Ohio +7
6. USC vs 11. Drake
Line: USC -6.5, o/u 138.5
Preview: Drake pulled out an improbable win against Wichita State after playing poorly for most of the contest, and they move on to play against USC. It was sophomore guard Joseph Yesufu making the plays for the Bulldogs in that one, scoring 21 and making multiple clutch shots, plus throwing down this dunk. The Trojans will have to key in on him, because no one else looked capable of making plays. Now, if you want to be optimistic, you could argue it's hard for Drake to play worse than they did up against the Shockers. If you want to be pessimistic, you'd say that USC would absolutely pulverize the team that showed up on Thursday night. I tend to side with that second opinion. I'm not really sure what Drake is going to do about the size of USC. The Trojans have Evan Mobely, the Pac-12 Player of the Year. He stands a 7 feet tall, and is terrifying in the paint. He's averaging 16.8 points and 8.6 rebounds, and I think he could eat the Bulldogs alive inside. They struggled to deal with Morris Udeze, a solid player no doubt, but he's not on the same level as Mobely. Starting alongisde him is his older brother Isaiah, who's 6'10" and averaging 9 points and 7.5 rebounds. The Trojans only play two guys not taller than 6'6", and they do work on the glass. Those two, Tahj Eaddy and Ethan Anderson, can both shoot from deep, so Drake can't just pack the paint. And when the Bulldogs have the ball, there is just so much length out there, it's hard to do anything while driving. Especially because the younger Mobely is just dying to erase your shot. He averages 3 blocks a game, and the other Trojans contribute 2.3 more. This just seems like a nightmare matchup for the Bulldogs, and I think Evan Mobely and USC make it "Scary Hours" for Drake.
My Pick: USC
ATS: USC -6.5
3. Kansas vs 14. Eastern Washington
Line: Kansas -10.5, o/u 146
Preview: Much like Virginia, Kansas is dealing with some COVID issues heading into this game. Unlike the Hoos, we have an idea of how it's affecting the Kansas program. We know they will be without forwards Jalen Wilson and Tristian Enaruna for this one, while big man David McCormack is flying in on Friday for their game on Saturday. It's obviously pretty suboptimal to be without your third leading scorer, and having your second leading scorer potentially less than 100%. Can the Eagles take advantage? Well, I think they have a chance. They have a really nice offense, averaging 78 points a game, a top 50 mark in Division I. They also played a tough schedule early on, competing in games with Washington State, Arizona, and Saint Mary's, although they got handled by Oregon pretty convincingly. They're led by Big Sky Player of the Year Tanner Groves. The big man puts up 16.4 points and 8.1 rebounds a game, and they like to run a lot of their offense through him in the post. They surround Groves with a lot of capable shooters, Kim Aiken, Taylor Robertson, Michael Meadows, and Jacob Davison all shoot it well for the Eagles, and stretch the floor to give Groves the space to operate. However, I think he struggles in this one. David McCormack is a different beast to Big Sky big men: he's really big and strong, and Groves could struggle to operate in the post against him. Defensively the Eagles are also not the strongest. They lack the athletes you need to battle a team like Kansas. McCormack could have a field day inside if he's looking anything like he normally does. He's just bigger and stronger than anyone Eastern Washington can throw at him. Plus, they'll have to figure out how to slow down Ochai Agbaji, a junior wing who's having a great year. He's a really good athlete and is shooting it really well from three this year, and he screams mismatch in this one. You also have to like Marcus Garrett's ability to defend the Eagles here and make it difficult for their guards to even get the ball to Groves. A lot of this depends on McCormack coming back from the pause and looking like he did before the shutdown, he put up 18 and 10 in the last game he played, and I think he'll be effective enough to have a really nice game. I think Kansas wins this one comfortably.
My Pick: Kansas
ATS: Kansas -10.5
7. Oregon vs 10. VCU
Line: Oregon -5.5, o/u 137.5
Preview: This is a really interesting matchup, as Oregon is a team many people are pegging as a dark horse to make a deep run. However, VCU is no easy opponent. Nah'Shon Hyland is the name to know, although every calls him by his nickname: "Bones". Not only does he have an absolutely great nickname, but Bones is an electric player on the court. He was the Atlantic 10 Player of the Year, and with good reason. He's averaging 19.5 points a game for the Rams, and he's got range that makes your jaw drop. He cannot be left alone, because he will make you pay by scoring. And of course, you can't talk VCU without talking about their defense. The Rams still play a Havoc-esque defense, although not quite the famous system Shaka Smart instituted in Richmond. They still like to press and trap and force turnovers, and it works. They average 9.2 steals a game, the sixth most in the nation, and they like to make things uncomfortable for opposing ball handlers. On the other side, the Ducks have been playing much better since point guard Will Richardson returned to the lineup. He's been a key piece for them, as he allows Chris Duarte to handle less of the point guard duties and focus more on his scoring. Oregon has five guys scoring in double figures, but Duarte is the star. He's averaging 16.7 points per game on 52.4% shooting, including making 43% of his shots from deep. VCU will have to figure out how to get the ball out of his hands. As mentioned though, Oregon has other scoring options. Rutgers transfer Eugene Omoruyi is an excellent forward, also averaging 16.7 points and doing a lot of damage from the high post in, although he can extend out to the perimeter. Richardson provides a steady hand at the point and can hit his threes, and transfer wings LJ Figueroa from St. John's and Eric Williams from Duquense round out the squad with their athleticism and solid shooting from deep. There aren't a ton of scoring options behind those five, but they don't really need them given the quality they get out of their starting lineup. I really like Oregon here. I just think it's a bad matchup for the Rams. Oregon has the ball handlers with Richardson, Duarte, and even Omoruyi to comfortably handle any pressure VCU throws at them, and they should be able to find a lot of buckets once they break that press. On the other end, Bones will get his, but Duarte, who stands 6'6" and is one of the better perimeter defenders in the nation, should slow him down. I like Oregon's chances in this one.
My Pick: Oregon
ATS: Oregon -5.5, over 137
2. Iowa vs 15. Grand Canyon
Line: Iowa -14.5, o/u 145.5
Preview: This is actually a somewhat tough matchup for Iowa. You would typically think that a team with Luka Garza as it's star, a big man who can wreck even the best of defenses, to dominate against a mid-major team. But Grand Canyon isn't the typical mid-major. They have two very large front court players in Alessandro Lever, standing at 6'10", and Asbjorn Midtgaard, a 7 footer from Denmark who transferred from Wichita State. That's a lot of size to be able to throw at the Iowa big man, which, again, is not something most 15 seeds can say. Those two dominated WAC front courts, averaging 27.3 points and 15.3 rebounds combined. Now, I don't expect them to have the same level of success against the Hawkeyes, because I doubt Midtgaard shoots 72.3% from the field like he's been doing this season. Still, that level of size is something you have to mention in this matchup. In the backcourt, sophomore Javon Blacksher leads the way, putting up 11.9 PPG and 5.3 APG for the Antelopes on the year. He's joined by Mixey Dixon, a transfer from St. John's who has traditionally shot really well from deep, but has struggled there this year. He'll need to pick up his shooting to get a win here. Wing Oscar Frayer has been a four year starter for the Lopes, and Sean Miller-Moore plays solid defense and transferred in from Oregon State. They also have Bryce Drew on the sidelines, a familiar face to many from his time at Vanderbilt and his brother coaching at Baylor. I do think Iowa will be too much for them though. Luka Garza is easily the best player they've faced this year, and I wonder how Midtgaard and Lever will guard the pick and pop actions when Garza is on the perimeter. And even if they can contain him, they then have to figure out how to stop Joe Wieskamp, Jordan Bohannon, and all of the Hawkeyes' other scoring options. Those three, along with CJ Fredrick all light the nets on fire from behind the arc, and I just can't see Grand Canyon having an answer for a team this deep and talented. They probably hang around in the first half, but Iowa will pull away in the second.
My Pick: Iowa
ATS: Grand Canyon +14.5
The Rest of the Bracket
Round of 32
1. Gonzaga vs 8. Missouri
Preview: If I wasn't going to pick Missouri against Oklahoma until a COVID issue hit the Sooners, you better believe I'm not taking them against Gonzaga. The Bulldogs are just so good. Even if we assume Jeremiah Tillmon stays out of foul trouble and matches up well with Drew Timme, and Dru Smith is able to corral Jalen Suggs, and let's say Xavier Pinson doesn't let Corey Kispert get good looks at the rim. Even if Missouri takes away all of Gonzaga's top 3 options, they still have to deal with Joel Ayayi, who averages 11.8 points a game, Andrew Nembhard, and Andre Watson. I don't think they can stop all those guys, and I don't think they can stop the top three either quite frankly. Plus, knowing how streaky the shooting can be for the Tigers, this one is pretty easy for me. It's the Zags all day.
My Pick: Gonzaga
5. Creighton vs 13. Ohio
Preview: This is a pretty fascinating matchup. The point guard battle is once again tough for the Blue Jays, and Preston is probably better than McLaughlin. The big issue I have for Ohio here is they probably need to outscore Creighton to win, and getting into a shoot out with the Blue Jays is not ideal. It's really hard to slow down such a prolific offensive attack, but this one should be high scoring. The matchup I worry about a lot for Ohio is Dwight Wilson up against Christian Bishop. I think Bishop holds a pretty big athletic advantage there, and he could be a devastating force if he's facing up against Wilson or when he's rolling to the basket. Creighton should be able to do enough defensively, I wonder what Denzel Mahoney could do against Preston, I think that could be an intriguing matchup for the Jays, to slow down the Bobcats and I think they can outscore them in a fun offensive matchup.
My Pick: Creighton
3. Kansas vs 6. USC
Preview: This is such a great matchup in my mind. David McCormack vs Evan Mobley is must see TV, and the winner of that matchup could very decide the game as a whole. And betting against the Pac-12 Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year seems like a mistake. If he can deter McCormack inside, this one becomes tough for Kansas. They don't have a ton of scorers outside of McCormack and Wilson, who may be back for this game, but I wouldn't count on him looking like he normally does. Ochai Agbaji could find some success here, but I don't see another solid scoring option here for the Jayhawks. Now, it won't be easy for USC either. Kansas is by no means a pushover, which I mean obviously, they're Kansas, but I think the Mobley's will be able to hit the offensive glass hard and get those put backs. That's an area Kansas has been somewhat weak. Add in some timely made threes from Ethan Anderson and Tahj Eaddy, and you're looking at the Trojans living to fight another day.
My Pick: USC
2. Iowa vs 7. Oregon
Preview: This matchup really hinges on one thing for me: the health of Joe Wieskamp and CJ Fredrick. They have both been banged up all year, and Fran McCaffery has been attempting to manage their minutes as much as possible to keep them fresh for a game like this. If they are forced to play deep into the Grand Canyon game, which I think they might be, and aren't at 100% for this, it's not good for Iowa. If the Hawkeyes can pull away a bit and get those guys off their feet for the final 10 minutes of their first round contest, then it's much better for this one. Because I think Luka Garza is going to do whatever he wants against Oregon. Eugene Omoruyi plays the five for them, but he's 6'6" and gets by more on his strength. That's not gonna work against an elite post player like Garza. So if Wieskamp and Fredrick are able to contribute at a high level, I like Iowa here. If not, I think the guard play of Oregon can really exploit them and make things difficult for the Hawkeyes, especially when they're forced to defend. I have no idea how healthy those two guys really are, but that doubt makes me think Chris Duarte could have a really good game here, and lead the Ducks onto the next round. Again, this team has absolutely no answer for Luka Garza, but I think they can also get what they want offensively, and I tend to trust guards over bigs in March.
My Pick: Oregon
Sweet Sixteen
1. Gonzaga vs 5. Creighton
Preview: Remember how I said getting into a shootout with Creighton is a bad idea, but that's probably what Ohio will try to do, and that's why I advanced the Blue Jays? Yeah, well that applies in this matchup as well, but the other way. I just don't see a way Creighton can beat Gonzaga unless they can outscore the Bulldogs, and that is an unenviable task. As mentioned, this is just such a loaded offense, I haven't seen a way to stop it yet. Drew Timme should feast in a game with a ton of floor spacing, and I think guys like Suggs and Ayayi will be able to attack their men and get an open shot, whether it's for themselves or someone else if the defense collapses on them. And defensively, Creighton doesn't have what it takes to expose Drew Timme in one on one post defense and Joel Ayayi is a nice check for Marcus Zegarowski. It's Gonzaga again for me.
My Pick: Gonzaga
6. USC vs 7. Oregon
Preview: The key here is we've already seen this matchup, and USC won 72-58. Now, Tahj Eaddy made 6 of his 11 threes in that one, which may not be repeatable, but that's still got to be concerning for Dana Altman. Still, only scoring 58 exposed what can slow down Oregon: the size, length, and athleticism USC presents. I'm not sure how much has changed. Yes, I'm not expecting that shooting performance from Eaddy again. But I think Mobely could have a much bigger game this time around, he had just 11 and 5 the first time, and shockingly for him no blocks. The wings of Oregon, Figueroa and Williams, had nice performance in the first matchup, but I really do just think this is a bad matchup for the Ducks. I'm going to say USC gets their second win against Oregon of the year in this one.
My Pick: USC
Elite Eight
1. Gonzaga vs 6. USC
Preview: You've probably noticed how I've just been gushing about Gonzaga a whole lot. That's with good reason. I've said all year they are the best team in the country, and time and time again they have proven it. USC is a good team. I really like the Trojans. They don't stand a chance here, in my opinion. Evan Mobely will probably match up fairly well with Drew Timme in the post on both end of the court. But as I've continually highlighted, this team has so many weapons and I do not know how you stop them all. Double Timme in the post? That's an open three. Stay home on shooters? You're leaving a guy shooting 65.6% from the field one on one. Play pressure defense? Jalen Suggs will eat you alive. The defense is a slight question mark for the Zags, but on the whole, they are so strong. This USC game will be a real test, but I think they pass with flying colors and head to the Final Four.
My Pick: Gonzaga
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