The last region I'm previewing is the East region. It's probably the most wide open, with Michigan suffering an injury to one of their star players, making them vulnerable. They also got a tough draw, with tons of dangerous teams lurking all over the bracket. Do I have them getting upset? Read on to find out. As always, follow me on Twitter @ThreePointRange for my thoughts on the tournament as it's happening, and click here for all of my March Madness content. Enjoy the weekend.
1. Michigan vs 16. Texas Southern
Line: Michigan -26.5, o/u 142
Preview: Texas Southern beat Mount St. Mary's in the opening First Four game, and earned the right to come take on Michigan. John Walker III, a Texas A&M transfer, had 19 points and 9 rebounds for the Tigers, and he'll have to do that again to win this one. Michael Weathers will also need to get going, as the leading scorer for Texas Southern struggled in the first game of the tournament, and he'll need a big one if they want to win their eleventh straight game. They will obviously be up against it in this one, because Michigan is a 1 seed for a reason. The Wolverines are likely going to be without Isaiah Livers, their second leading scorer, who got hurt in the Big Ten tournament. He's a huge loss, but they aren't helpless without the senior forward. Freshman big Hunter Dickinson should give Texas Southern a lot of trouble on both ends. He stands at 7'1" and is really strong, especially for a freshman. He leads the team in scoring, and it's hard to see Texas Southern matching up with him one on one. And defensively, he should dominate the paint, both blocking shots and grabbing rebounds. And doubling Dickinson in the post is asking for trouble, because everyone else on the team can shoot. From Franz Wagner, the younger brother of Michigan legend Mo Wagner, to Eli Brooks, a program stalwart in his fourth year, to Mike Smith, a Columbia transfer, to Chaundre Brown, a Wake Forest transfer, you're looking at a really well rounded offense. And defensively, all those guys defend well on the perimeter, and should be able to handle what the Tigers throw at them. Texas Southern should be proud of their first victory, but they aren't going to stop the Wolverines in this one.
My Pick: Michigan
ATS: Texas Southern +26.5, over 142
8. LSU vs 9. St. Bonaventure
Line: LSU -1.5, o/u 143.5
Preview: It'd be unfair to both sides to call this a classic battle of a group of super talented players vs the well coached team, but that's sort of what it feels like. Again, I mean no disrespect to Will Wade, who's made some good adjustments this year, or the talent of the Bonnies, which is good for any level, but definitely for a mid-major. But when you look at LSU, the first thing that stands out is just how talented every player is. Their starting lineup is almost entirely full of top 100 recruits, and a guy like Josh LeBlanc, a starter while he was at Georgetown, is the eighth leading scorer on the team. Leading the way is Cameron Thomas, who is a bona-fide bucket getter. He's averaging 22.6 points a game as a freshman, and get a shot whenever he wants. Unfortunately, that means he sometimes takes shots whenever he wants, leading to poor shot selection at times. Still, he can score with anybody, as evidenced by his 29 point game against Missouri in the Tigers' final regular season contest. He's not the only threat though. Joining him in the backcourt in Javonte Smart, who's scoring 15.9 points a contest himself, while shooting 42.1% from three. In the front court, there's the hyper athletic Darius Days, who puts up 11.7 points, 7.9 rebounds, and shoots 39.7 percent from deep, and alongside him is Trendon Watford, a very skilled big man. He's averaging 16.7 points and 7.4 rebounds a game, and can attack less mobiles bigs by facing up, and has a solid jumper as well. Defense has been an issue for the Bayou Bengals throughout this season, with both effort and scheme creating worrisome results on that end. However, they seemed to make improvements late in the season, specifically in the SEC Tournament. They have the athletes to be good on that end, and if recent results are anything to go by, this could be less of a disaster during March. However, St. Bonaventure is going to test them. All five of their starters average double figures, and they run a great offense thanks to head coach Mark Schmidt. They run a ton of set plays that get their guys in positions to shine, and it works beautifully. Kyle Lofton runs the offense, and he's definitely a scoring threat as well. He scores a team high 14.6 points per contest and dishes out 5.5 assists as well, making him a guy the Tigers will want to key in on. Big man Osun Osunniyi is another player to watch. He's got a crazy wingspan, and does excellent work on the glass, averaging 9.5 rebounds a game to go along with 10.5 points. The Bonnies as a whole do well on the glass, especially offensively, so LSU will have to lock that down. They also shoot well from three, as Dominick Welch and Jaren Holmes are both snipers from deep. One area of concern is that they essentially play six guys, and they really can't afford any foul trouble, especially not from Osunniyi. This is such a hard one to pick, because I really like both teams. Mark Schmidt sets his guys up so well to succeed on both ends, and they get back in transition well, a key against an LSU team that likes to run. However, I can't get past the talent of the Tigers. I just like theme ever so slightly here. I'm buying into the improved defense, and I like the Javonte Smart matchup on Kyle Lofton. It's the closest of margins, but I'll take the best player on the floor and say LSU wins this one thanks to a late Cam Thomas three.
My Pick: LSU
ATS: LSU -1.5, over 143.5
5. Colorado vs 12. Georgetown
Line: Colorado -6, o/u 138
Preview: Georgetown was one of the stories of Champ Week, knocking off Villanova and Seton Hall before blowing out Creighton in the Big East title game. Patrick Ewing has led his alma mater to the tournament for the first time, and they'll be looking to pull off the classic 12-5 upset. They are led by Jahvon Blair, who is a volume shooter. You can definitely look for him to be shooting early and often, and the same can be said for Jamorko Pickett. Both guys take over 10 shots a game on questionable efficiency let's say, but both guys can score. Arguably more impressive is big man Qudus Wahab. He's putting up 12.4 points and 8 rebounds and has really developed well under Ewing. He's scored double digits in his last six including a double double against Creighton last time out, and the Hoyas will be looking to get him involved down low. Also coming on strong late is freshman point guard Dante Harris, who had a really good Big East tournament as well. For the Buffaloes, they made it to the Pac-12 Tournament final, where they lost to a different bid stealer, Oregon State. The strength of Colorado, their free throw shooting, let them down in that one. They were on pace to be the greatest free throw shooting team of all time, but they shot their worst percentage of the year against the Beavers, going 12-20 from the line. They are still shooting 82.2% from the line, which is obviously incredible, and if this one is tight down the strecth, you would think the Buffaloes would hold a large advantage. This is a very experienced squad, with only one freshman playing significant minutes, and everyone else is a junior or senior. The star is McKinley Wright, an all Pac-12 point guard who averages 15.5 points and 5.6 assists per game. He is excellent at attacking the rim. Surrounding him are shooters like Jeriah Horne, D'Shawn Schwartz, Maddox Daniels, and Eli Parquet, with Horne in particular being a nice scoring option. Keep an eye on Jabari Walker, a versatile freshman forward who can unlock a different version of this team. He dominated for a three game stretch in January before missing most of February with injury. If he's back to full strength, that's a really nice addition to this team. Inside, Evan Battey is a bruising center who is scoring in double digits. His matchup with Wahab could be the key one, as Wahab will need to really dominate to help the Hoyas win this one. Because outside of him continuing to be a force in the paint, I don't like the Hoyas here. The experience advantage is huge this time of year, and a rotation with mostly upperclassman makes this team very attractive. I especially like McKinley Wright up against Donte Harris, a spot where the veteran point guard should thrive. They have such a high floor and I think they'll just do the small things that lead to them slowly accumulating an insurmountable lead. The Buffaloes rumbles on into the next round.
My Pick: Colorado
ATS: Colorado -6
4. Florida State vs 13. UNC Greensboro
Line: Florida State -10.5, o/u 145.5
Preview: UNC Greensboro is starting to become a regular in the tournament under Wes Miller, and the SoCon champions are a dangerous opponent. They have a bona fide star in Isaiah Miller, who's averaging 19.3 points and does everything offensively. He's a super athlete, just look up some of his dunks, and he's got a mid range jumper he can get off at any time. However, much like Cam Thomas, his shot selection can sometimes be questionable. Still, he's the offensive hub for this team, also averaging 6.9 rebounds and 4 assists, and the ball in constantly in his hands. Outside of him, the Spartans aren't great in the half court. However, they like to press and force turnovers and get out on the open court. Miller averages 2.6 steals, and he is a nightmare for opposing players on both ends of the floor. Keyshaun Langley is a key name to watch here. He shot it well as a freshman, but has been cold this year. If he can discover his stroke from deep, that could be a huge X-factor. However, I really don't like this matchup for UNCG. The Seminoles are a really strong team, and they have the athleticism to not be bothered by what the athletic gifts the Spartans possess. Scottie Barnes and Raiquan Gray stand out as athletic marvels, with the two standing 6'9" and 6'8" respectively. Barnes is the point guard for the Noles, and Gray can handle the ball some too, so those two are a nightmare matchup for opposing teams. Barnes is a freshman and likely to be a lottery pick, and with good reason. Averaging 11 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 4.2 assists, he does a little bit of everything, although his jumper is still a bit of a work in progress. That's fine though, because he's surrounded by shooters. Leading scorer MJ Walker is making 44.4% of his threes, Anthony Polite hits 43.9%, and Sardarr Calhoun makes 41.8%. That's pretty damn good, and makes this team dangerous. They already have all of the athleticism in the world, and they have guys who can really stretch a defense out to create significant issues. Add in 7 footer Balsa Koprivica coming on strong, putting up back to back double doubles in the ACC Tournament and contributing six blocks in two games, and this team looks scary. They have the athletes to match up really well with UNC Greensboro, and while Isaiah Miller is great, the Noles should be able to slow him down somewhat and unleash their own scary offensive options to win this one.
My Pick: Florida State
ATS: UNC Greensboro +10.5
6. BYU vs 11. UCLA
Line: BYU -3.5, o/u 138.5
Preview: If you missed the UCLA game on Thursday night, you missed a great one. Down 11 at the half, the Bruins came back to force overtime, and ended up winning by 6 against Michigan State. Mick Cronin made some great half time adjustments, and was able to take advantage of the Spartans defense, while playing that tough, Mick Cronin defense down the stretch. When Michigan State looked like they were fading, UCLA was just rounding into form, and Jamie Jacquez had a great game, scoring a career high 27 points. The whole team chipped in, but he looked great. A concern for the Bruins will be Johnny Juzang's health. The Kentucky transfer leads UCLA in scoring and had 23 against Sparty, but went down in OT with an ankle injury. If he can't go, that's a huge issue for Mick Cronin, as the offense will really suffer. And they'll need it against BYU. The Cougars can certainly score it with the best of them. They're driven by their backcourt duo of Alex Barcello and Brandon Averette. Both are transfer, Barcello from Arizona and Averette from Oklahoma State by way of Utah Valley, and they can light it up. Averette is averaging 11.5 points on 36% shooting from three. Pretty good right? Well, Barcello is scoring 15.9 a game and shooting an absolutely ridiculous 48.6% from three. Those two are tough to keep up with, and the Bruins will need to be locked in defensively to slow them down. Plus, BYU has Purdue transfer Matt Haarms at center, he's 7'3" if you were unaware, and Caleb Lohner, a former Utah commit who's a high major athlete at the forward position. Mix in some other shooters, and this team has a dangerous offense. Now, defense can be an issue at times, but this team is legit. They were beating Gonzaga at the half in the WCC Championship game, and pushed the Zags as hard as anyone did in conference play. I think Juzang's the X-factor. And since I don't know his status, I'll take the Cougars and their shooting in this one.
My Pick: BYU
ATS: BYU -3.5
3. Texas vs 14. Abilene Christian
Line: Texas -8.5, o/u 140
Preview: The Longhorns seem to have finally realized their potential under Shaka Smart. Outside of a stretch at the end of January into the beginning of February where they lost three straight, they've looked really good all year. Their guards have been great, with Andrew Jones, Matt Coleman, and Courtney Ramey all averaging in double figures. Jones is one of the best stories in the nation. He was diagnosed with leukemia and there was obvious doubt over his future basketball career. However, he's made a full recovery, and led the Longhorns in scoring this year. They are a tough nut to crack. They shoot well from deep, with Coleman, Ramey, Kai Jones, Jase Febres, and even Greg Brown all being proficient shooters from behind the arc. They also have great size, with Jones, Brown, and Jericho Sims all capable of doing work in the paint. Defensively, they're very sound, using their size and athleticism to their advantage. They rebound well and bother teams all over the court. They're a pretty complete team, and Abilene Christian will have their hands full. The Wildcats aren't an easy out, they competed with Texas Tech and Arkansas earlier in the year, and they have a really good defense. Joe Golding is one of the best unheralded coaches in the country, and he's got the defense to cause problems for a lot of teams. The Wildcats create chaos with their scrambles, somehow always getting into position to get a steal. Still, I think they could struggle to score against this Texas team, and I like the Longhorns if they are able to get out and run in transition, attacking before Abilene Christian can set up their defense. Much like UNC Greensboro, I just think this is a bad matchup for the Wildcats, and I think the Longhorns win this one without much trouble.
My Pick: Texas
ATS: Texas -8.5
7. UConn vs 10. Maryland
Line: UConn -3, o/u 130
Preview: The Huskies have been a very popular dark horse team, and it's pretty easy to see why. I'm sure almost everyone remembers the run to the title the Huskies had as a 7 seed back in 2014, and there are some similarities to that team. They certainly have the star guard in the vein of Kemba Walker or Shabazz Napier with James Bouknight. The Huskies were clearly a different team when he was out injured, and their offense relies on him quite a lot. He's averaging 19 a game, and can seemingly score whenever he wants. And if he misses a shot, UConn attacks the glass really well, with Tyrese Martin and Isaiah Whaley both averaging over two offensive boards a game, and Adama Sanogo is a threat there as well. It also looks like RJ Cole will be healthy for this one after clearing concussion protocol. He can create his own shot as well, which helps ease some of the burdern on Bouknight. As for the Terrapins, they are led by Eric Ayala and Aaron Wiggins. Both can score from all over the floor, but the key for each is hitting from three. They can both be streaky, but when they are shooting well, it's hard to stop. Their center is Donta Scott, who while he may be undersized, allows the Terps to go five out and spread out teams. He shoots really well from deep, as does Jarius Hamilton, and that should help negate Whaley, the Big East Defensive Player of the Year. He averages 2.6 blocks a game, and Maryland should be able to drag him away from the rim. They have a Defensive Player of the Year of their own in Darryl Morsell, and he's the X-factor in this matchup for me. His ability to guard James Bouknight should decide the game. He's been a perimeter stopper all year, and I think he'll be able to do enough to slow down Bouknight. The Huskies should have a size advantage, which you would think would translate to rebounds, and it likely will, but Maryland gang rebounds well, and I think they'll do enough to make it not a huge issue. I also like the offense's ability to convert against the Huskies, and pull their bigger guys away from the basket. I think Maryland wins a close one.
My Pick: Maryland
ATS: Maryland +3
2. Alabama vs 15. Iona
Line: Alabama -17, o/u 147
Preview: Slick Rick Pitino is back in the dance, this time leading perennial MAAC contenders Iona into the field of 68. They're playing well at the moment, they haven't lost since February 17, and Pitino has a pair of guards making things happen for his team. Isaiah Ross is the two guard and main scorer, averaging 18.4 points a game while shooting 39.1% from deep. They also have Asante Gist, a product of the legenedary Saint Anthony's in Newark, their point guard, who is admittedly more of a scorer than a facilitator. He averages 13.3 PPG, and handles all of the ball handling for the Gaels. Throw in freshman big Nelly Junior Joseph and sophomore forward Berrick JeanLouis, and you've got a dangerous core. Plus, they're not going to beat themselves, taking care of the ball and fouling at one of the lower rates in the country. As for Alabama, they seem to have been able to replicate their success on the football field on the court under Nate Oats. They won the SEC regular season and the tournament, culminating in a win over LSU to cap off six straight victories heading into the tournament. The name of the game with the Crimson Tide is pace and space, and they do it very well. They're going to push the ball up the court, and from there, spread the floor and shoot it from deep. They take 30.4 threes a game, fourth most in Division I, and shoot it fairly well, making threes at the highest clip in SEC play. Jaden Shackleford has been an offensive star as a sophomore, leading the team with 14.3 points a game this year, and he's always dangerous from beyond the arc. Villanova transfer and former five star recruit Jahvon Quinerly has shown off his talent in Nate Oats' system, taking advantage of the run and gun style to average 12.7 points a game and showing off an improved jumper, making a team high 44.3% of his threes. John Petty is another guy who can light it up from deep, and although he's streaky, when he's hot, he's HOT. And that's without mentioning SEC Player of the Year Herb Jones, who may not be the premier scorer, but he's a lockdown defender who does a little bit of everything. He finished the SEC tournament with back to back double doubles, including 21 and 13 against Tennessee in the semi finals. Yale transfer Jordan Bruner is back from injury up front and the Tide are expecting freshman Josh Primo back for tournament play. I think they will blow Iona away here. The Gaels might be able to hang around for a half, but this offense won't stop coming and they should be able to exploit Iona's somewhat lackluster transition defense to great effect.
My Pick: Alabama
ATS: Alabama -17
The Rest of the Bracket
Round of 32
1. Michigan vs 8. LSU
Preview: This one should be a lot of fun. The loss of Livers looms large here, as the Wolverines could need to put up points to keep pace with a prolific LSU offense. Dickinson and Watford should have advantages against each other on both sides of the court, and I think that will be fascinating to watch. To deal with Thomas, Michigan has a couple of options. Franz Wagner is an incredibly underrated defender in my opinion, and he could see time on him. He has the size advantage, standing at 6'9" with length, and that could bother Thomas a little bit. The other option would be Chaundree Brown, although I expect him to be on Darius Days, since he plays a little more physically than Wagner does. Javonte Smart is another guy to deal with, but again, Mike Smith can defend, although he's nowhere near the athlete Smart is. I do think Michigan's offensive execution could be too much for a shaky LSU defense to handle though. I just don't see them being able to hang with this Michigan team for 40 minutes, and I think the Wolverines advance to the second weekend.
My Pick: Michigan
4. Florida State vs 5. Colorado
Preview: I have a very clear lean in this matchup. I think this is where Colorado gets sent home. I actually really like the Buffaloes team, but I think this is a bad matchup. I think McKinley Wright struggles with all the length and athleticism of the Seminoles offensively, and I don't like Evan Battey in the paint against an improving Balsa Koprivica. Offensively, I struggle to see how the Buffaloes slow down the Noles. The size of Scottie Barnes should present mismatches, and we saw Colorado struggle with the shooting and offensive rebounding of Oregon State in the Pac-12 title game, both strengths of the Noles. I think this one could be a pillar to post Florida State lead and win.
My Pick: Florida State
3. Texas vs 6. BYU
Preview: This is another game that's just a bad matchup for a team I do think is good. I'm not sure how BYU competes with Texas here. They would need Alex Barcello to go full Jimmer Fredette in this one, at least that's how I view it. I don't seem an advantage anywhere else for the Cougars. Texas has the guards to score with and defend the Barcello/Averette backcourt, which is typically how BYU beats their opponents. Their front line definitely doesn't have an advantage here either. The Texas bigs are stronger and more athletic, and I think the Longhorns could own the glass. Even though Matt Haarms is tall, he's not the strongest. He can hold his own, he was forged in the Big Ten, but Texas has too many big guys to keep throwing in there, and they can stretch out the floor as well, removing him from the paint. Greg Brown could have a really nice game here, as I'm not sure who guards him, and I can see him dominating. It's the Longhorns pretty easily here for me.
My Pick: Texas
2. Alabama vs 10. Maryland
Preview: This one is intriguing to me. The Terrapins should have the perimeter defenders to match up with Alabama in the half court, and at least bother the Tide when they have the ball. And I think Donta Scott can attack the offensive glass hard and find some opportunities to score. But we all know Alabama wants to play in transition a lot, and I think that's where Alabama can score. They'll exploit the Terps defense when it isn't set, either taking a quick three or attacking the rim for an easy bucket. The play of Jahvon Quinerly is a huge X-factor here. The Villanova transfer has been huge recently, and he's playing the best ball of his college career. If he and Jaden Shackelford are clicking, it doesn't matter who's guarding them. Shackelford especially is unguardable when he's hot, and Alabama has enough weapons offensively to consistently score the ball and light it up from deep. I'm just a believer in this Nate Oats team, and I think the Tide keeps rolling here.
My Pick: Alabama
Sweet Sixteen
1. Michigan vs 4. Florida State
Preview: Let me say right now: any of these four teams could advance from this region. I honestly might give them all like a 25% chance. So I'm splitting hairs when talking about these matchups. The key here is obviously the health of Isaiah Livers. If he can go, that's a huge boost for the Wolverines, because his size and shooting would be huge. I'm going to operate as if he can't and I just have to side with Florida State. Mike Smith and Eli Brooks are 5'11" and 6'1". I just find it hard to believe they can find someone to guard in this one, and the size of Florida State is just such a factor. I keep coming back to it, and in a game this close, I have to take that as the most glaring matchup advantage for either team.
My Pick: Florida State
2. Alabama vs 3. Texas
Preview: Again, I can see this game going either way. The more I think about it, the more I think I like Texas in this one actually. The front court matchup favors the Longhorns, with their size presenting some issues for the Tide, who like the play smaller lineups. And Texas can shoot well enough to keep up with Bama, assuming they aren't setting the nets on fire. But I have a weird feeling about this Alabama team, and I can just see them getting red hot on their run through March, with the trio of Shackelford, Quinerly, and Petty terrorizing defense from behind the arc. Plus, Herb Jones is awesome, and Jordan Bruner should be approaching full health, which is huge. I don't know, my gut tells me Alabama, and I'll trust it.
My Pick: Alabama
Elite Eight
2. Alabama vs 4. Florida State
Preview: Yeah it's the same as above. My guy says trust the Crimson Tide, so I will. Again, I can see all four of these teams making a Final Four appearance, but I'm picking Alabama. I don't really have a ton to say here. I'll be honest, it's 3 AM, I've been watching basketball since 5 PM, and I'm exhausted, so I'm going to keep this short and sweet. Roll Tide.
My Pick: Alabama
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