After a long drought, it's finally back. That's right, I'm back blogging here at Three Point Range. Oh, and also the NCAA Tournament has returned. Jokes aside, it's sure been a while since I've been writing. But watching Champ Week and seeing the bracket really energized me, and I'm in the mood to write, so here I am. I can't promise it'll be frequent, but I'm definitely going to have previews of every region up before action tips off on Friday, and maybe I'll keep going after that, we'll have to see. Enough about the future, we're here to focus on the present, and that's the NCAA Tournament. So here's my previews for each of the games we'll see on Thursday. As always, follow me on Twitter, @ThreePointRange, for my thoughts throughout the action, and updates on when I'm posting new articles. Let's have ourselves a tournament everybody.
16. Texas Southern vs 16. Mount St. Mary's
Line: PICK EM, o/u 133
Preview: Kicking things off on Thursday a really intriguing matchup. It's a classic matchup of two teams that like to play at very different paces. Texas Southern has the 23rd fastest pace in the country, while Mount St. Mary's has the fifth slowest in the nation. If one team can dictate the pace, they'll obviously have a huge advantage. It's easy to see why these teams prefer this pace as well. Texas Southern has a bevy of athletes, including high majors transfers like John Walker from Texas A&M and Galin Alexander from Georgetown. Plus, the star of the show is Michael Weathers, a transfer from Miami (OH) by way of Oklahoma State. He's a very dynamic point guard who can score with anyone, and excels at getting to the rim. He put up 30 points in the SWAC semifinals against Jackson State, and is capable of that at any time. They do need to play out in transition though, because they don't have a great half court offense outside of Weathers. They aren't a great shooting team, and they have relied on being more athletic than teams throughout the year. Meanwhile, the Mountaineers love to play half court ball. They trot out multiple big men, with three starters standing over 6'8". Their leading scorer, however, is 5'8" Damian Chong-Qui, who makes a lot of plays out of ball screens, which is aided by Nana Opoku, Mezie Offurum, and Malik Jefferson, the big men up front, being bigger and more physical up front than most of their competition. Personally, I think the Tigers will be able to speed Mount St. Mary's up by applying some full court pressure, who don't have great ball handling outside of Chong-Qui, and force turnovers to allow them to play a game more at their pace. I also think Weathers is the best player on the court, and his size could bother Chong-Qui defensively, as Weathers is 6'3" and I see him causing problems for the Mountaineers' point guard, making the ball leave his hands in their half court offense. I also think they have the athletes to cause problems for the bigs of Mount St. Mary's, and really make things difficult for them offensively. I don't think it will be pretty, especially when played at Mt. St. Mary's pace, but I think Texas Southern can create enough turnovers to get some easy transition buckets and Michael Weathers can make enough plays to get them a victory. With the best player in the game and the ability to cause issues for an already mediocre offense, I'm rolling with the Tigers.
My Pick: Texas Southern
ATS: Texas Southern
11. Drake vs 11. Wichita State
Line: PICK EM, o/u 141
Preview: Two of the bubbliest teams this season meet as the Drake Bulldogs take on the Wichita State Shockers. The Shockers are a familiar face to most, as they have been very consistently good mid-major for years under Gregg Marshall. However, the long time head coach was let go after a scandal about him abusing players verbally and physically, and Isaac Brown took over. They've been fueled this season by their backcourt of Tyson Etienne and Alterique Gilbert, who are both capable scorers, although Etienne leads in that department. They also have two terrific wings in Dexter Dennis and Trey Wade, who while they may not be the most prolific scorers, do a really good job of influencing the game defensively. Senior center Morris Udeze is also rock solid, much like the rest of the Shockers. Besides Etienne, this is a rock solid team that doesn't make a ton of mistakes, but they also aren't great in any area. As for Drake, they made waves for being undefeated against the spread for quite a while, and sat at 22-2 when star point guard Roman Penn went down injured. They finished the year going 3-2, although one loss was to MVC champs Loyola Chicago, and he's the type of player you can't replace. They've also been without their leading scorer, wing Tank Hemphill, for the past nine games, although reports are he will be back against Wichita State. He's an explosive athlete and skilled slasher who loves to attack the rim. Plus, he's a huge piece for the Bulldogs on the defensive end. Joseph Yesufu has stepped up since Penn went down, averaging 23 PPG after he got injured. The contributions of DJ Wilkins and Tremell Murphy can't be taken lightly either, as they provide crucial floor spacing that should allow Hemphill the space he needs to attack. Drake is also a stout defensive unit, often grinding to late in the shot clock. The reintroduction of Hemphill is huge, and I think he'll be the X-factor in this matchup. I think this will be a close one, but ultimately Drake will have Wichita State saying "Hold on, We're going home".
My Pick: Drake
ATS: Drake
16. Norfolk State vs 16. Appalachian State
Line: App State -3, o/u 133.5
Preview: Bracket busters Norfolk State return, as the Spartans are very well known for their 15-2 upset of Missouri back in 2012. They also won a postseason game back in 2019, defeating Alabama in the NIT, and beat James Madison and George Mason this year, so they aren't just a one hit wonder. They're led by two guards, sophomore DeVante Carter, who leads the team in scoring and does a little bit of everything, and junior Joe Bryant, a sniper from deep who had 30 in their first MEAC tournament game against North Carolina Central. They are excellent at confounding opposing teams with their defense, as head coach Robert Jones will throw a lot of different looks at you by mixing up man and zone, plus throwing in a press. But Appalachian State should be prepared. Their coach, Dustin Kearns, is a rising star in the business, and they put forward an impressive effort in the Sun Belt tournament, beating the top three teams in the conference on their win to winning the auto bid. They are also led by their dynamic guards, with Adrian Delph, Justin Forrest, and Michael Almonacy all averaging double figures for the Mountaineers. They combined to average 59.5 PPG throughout the Sun Belt tournament, and they all took their turns leading the team in scoring, including Almomacy's 32 point performance in the conference championship game. They were nailing shots from deep throughout that tournament, improving on their 32.4% mark on the season. They aren't a particularly big team, with power forward Donovan Gregory standing at 6'5", and center Jamal Lewis at 6'8". The guard depth for the Mountaineers should be key in breaking down the Norfolk State press, and it could slow down the Spartans offensive attack, since they do like to play in transition so much. The key could be if Appalachian State can keep making their shots from deep, or if they regress back down towards the mean with their shooting. It's been the story of their season, as the Mountaineers are 9-1 when they shoot over 35% from three, and 7-10 when they don't. They've had over a week off, so they're hot hands may have cooled down a bit, but I think they'll keep making it rain from deep, leading them to a win in this one.
My Pick: Appalachian State
ATS: Appalachian State -3
11. UCLA vs 11. Michigan State
Line: Michigan State -2, o/u 135.5
Preview: The premier matchup of the First Four, we have two blue bloods going at it with Michigan State and UCLA duking it out. It was a tail of two seasons for Michigan State, who after winning their first six games, lost nine of their next 13 games, and looked dead in the water. Of course, from there, they would go on to win five of their final eight, with wins over Illinois, Ohio State, and Michigan. It's really just a matter of which version of the Spartans shows up. They have talent with guys like Aaron Henry, a wing scorer who leads the team in scoring and is a great defender, Josh Langford, a good shooter who can hit tough shots, and Rocket Watts, their point guard who is inconsistent but had 21 in the win over Michigan and 15 in the Illinois victory. Plus, Joey Hauser has the talent, we saw that at Marquette, but it hasn't been there yet this season for him. They're also deep, with 11 guys playing double figure minutes for the Spartans. And of course, Tom Izzo thrives in March. He's one of the best coaches in the country, obviously, and always seems to do his best work in the tournament. As for UCLA, they are trending in the wrong direction, having lost all of their last four games entering the tournament. Now, they were all teams that made it to the dance, but it's still quite concerning. They're a physical team, like you'd expect from a Mick Cronin team, and they're led by Kentucky transfer Johnny Juzang, who's averaging 14 a game for the Bruins, but may have some injury issues. Jamie Jacquez is the prototypical Mick Cronin player, who will play hard and dive after loose balls and do all the smaller, gritty things for this squad. They also have point guard Tyger Campbell, who is a good distributor of the ball and excels at getting into the lane. They are weaker up front though, with Chris Smith and Jalen Hill being out at the moment. That takes away some of the smash mouth basketball they like to play, and has definitely hurt them on the glass. They still have Cody Riley on the inside, but that's definitely hurt them. Especially in a matchup against a Michigan State team that can be vulnerable on the interior. This might be the easiest game to pick for me. The Spartans are playing much better basketball at the moment, and they should be able to stifle UCLA. They have wing defenders to throw at Juzang as well as Campbell and make it hard for the Bruins to operate offensively. I think this one could actually be pretty ugly, with both teams struggling to get clean looks, but at the end of the day, I think Michigan State matches up well defensively and has enough offensively with the likes of Henry and Langford for Tom Izzo to guide them to victory.
My Pick: Michigan State
ATS: Michigan State -2, under 135.5
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