Up next is the South region, which features the Baylor Bears as the 1 seed, and some double digit seeds that should be scary to their opponents. It's one of the more interesting regions in my opinion, and, spoiler alert, I have a double digit seed advancing to the Sweet 16 here, so be sure to read on to see my reasoning for that. I should have both the East and West previews out tomorrow, hopefully before the action kicks off, but I'm waiting on the First Four games to be final to put the finishing touches on those two previews. Of course, be sure to follow me on Twitter @ThreePointRange to know when those articles come out and see my thoughts during the games tonight. If you want to see my previews for those games and what I'll be betting, you can do so here. We've finally made it to NCAA Tournament basketball, so enjoy it tonight.
1. Baylor vs 16. Hartford
Line: Baylor -25.5, o/u 140
Preview: Let's start with the good for Hartford. For them, it all starts on the defensive side of the ball. Traci Carter, their point guard and a transfer from Marquette, is excellent defensively and sets the tone on that end. He averages 2.6 steals per game, one of the highest marks in the country, and is an expert pickpocket. They also do an excellent job of defending the three point line. Opponents shot 27.5% from deep last year, and the Hawks have repeated that this season, holding opponents to 28.7% shooting from beyond the arc. They also rarely foul, giving up just 14.1 free throws per game, one of the lowest marks in the nation. Offensively, they're going to gun from behind the arc, and they can get hot and make some shots. Carter shoots 37.3% from deep, and junior DJ Mitchell is shooting 41%. They made 52.6% of their shots from deep in their conference tournament win over Vermont, a game in which Carter had 22 and Austin Williams, a junior transfer from Marist who leads the team in scoring, had 25. He really came on strong in the America East tournament, opening with a 29 point, 15 rebound performance against Binghamton, and ended up averaging 20.5 points while shooting 53.8% from deep. But, as you can guess from the line, Baylor will be too much for this team. The Bears are far too stout defensively, and their backcourt of Jared Butler, MaCio Teague, and Davion Mitchell is fearsome, and Carter can't guard three guys at once. Baylor is also the best three point shooting team in the country, shooting a blistering 41.8% from deep. They're going to challenge that three point defense of the Hawks, and I think in the end, they'll have success. Even if they are missing, Baylor loves to crash the glass, an area Hartford has struggled to handle this year, and they'll be facing bigger, faster, stronger athletes from the Bears. Everything in this matchup points to an easy Baylor victory.
My Pick: Baylor
ATS: Baylor -25.5
8. North Carolina vs 9. Wisconsin
Line: North Carolina -1.5, o/u 137.5
Preview: This matchup boils down to one thing: guards versus bigs. Wisconsin has the advantage with the former. Seniors D'Mitrik Trice and Brad Davison lead the Badgers into this one, and they are both capable as shooters, making 38% and 37.8% of their shots from behind the arc respectively. Trice is really the guy to watch: the Badgers point guard leads the team in scoring and assists and is capable of catching fire like he did against Illinois earlier this year, scoring 19 points in 2:05 to nearly take down Illinois. As for North Carolina, they are relying mostly on Caleb Love and RJ Davis, two freshmen. They have both been shaky, with each showing flashes of potential but ultimately being inefficient and relatively ineffective. Neither guy is much of a shooter, with the only real floor spacer to speak of on the Tar Heels being freshman wing Kerwin Walton. Given the experience and effectiveness advantage, it would seem like Wisconsin should have a big advantage here right? Well, it's not so simple. Because one you move into the front court, the pendulum swings back towards UNC. They are insanely good on the glass, with Armando Bacot and Garrison Brooks dominating opposing front lines, and if one of them needs a rest, they bring in Day'Ron Sharpe off the bench. Need a fourth big? How about 7'1" five star recruit Walker Kessler, who plays under 10 minutes a game. Those four combine for 36.6 points and 25.8 rebounds, including 10.4 on the offensive end. The Tar Heels as a whole are corralling 41.3% of their offensive rebound opportunities, easily the highest rate in the nation. So even if Love and Davis aren't clicking, they get plenty of chances for easy buckets and have the ability to just decimate the Badgers on the glass. Wisconsin has Micah Potter and Nate Reuvers, two guys who are solid players, but this North Carolina front line is just so tough to deal with for anyone. I actually think those two can pose problems on the other end, Reuvers can stretch the floor and drag one of the UNC bigs away from the basket, which should help some for guys like Aleem Ford to attack the basket, but this is a clear advantage for the Tar Heels. Typically, it's smart to trust the more experienced team, especially when it comes to guard play, in March. However, I'm going to stray from that here. For one, Wisconsin doesn't exactly have momentum entering the tournament, having lost seven of ten on their way to March. Secondly, they really need Trice to hit shots. They can typically go inside to get buckets, but that's a non-starter against the behemoths North Carolina has in the paint. So they'll need Trice to be hot in order to stay in this one, and he can be quite streaky. Plus, you know Roy Williams will be doing everything he can to get the ball out of his hands and make things hard on him throughout this game. Third, I think North Carolina can get out in transition, an area where Roy Williams led teams thrive, and exploit Wisconsin for quick buckets. And lastly, when looking at the numbers, in games Wisconsin has lost, they've had a rebounding margin of -7.4. That's not encouraging when facing a team that can control the glass as well as North Carolina does. They've also struggling against guys like Kofi Cockburn, Hunter Dickinson, Trayce Jackson-Davis, and the other elite Big Ten bigs, so this is a matchup I just don't think is favorable for the Badgers at all. I like the Tar Heels here.
My Pick: North Carolina
ATS: North Carolina -1.5
5. Villanova vs 12. Winthrop
Line: Villanova -6.5, o/u 143
Preview: This is seemingly a very popular 12-5 upset, but is it justified? In my opinion, it is. Starting with Winthrop, they're just a fun team. They like to run and gun offensively, playing at the ninth fastest pace in the country. They also have a star point guard in Big South Player of the Year Chandler Vaudrin. He stands at 6'7", obviously making him incredibly unique for a mid-major point guard, and has three triple doubles this season. He's averaging 12.2 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 6.9 assists on the season, which is a pretty crazy stat line. He also shoots 37.5% from deep, meaning he isn't one of those "tall point guards who fill up the stat sheet but can't shoot". Outside of Vaudrin, the most notable player might be DJ Burns, a transfer from Tennessee who has been a dominant post presence for the Eagles this season. The big man averages 10 points a game in just 15 minutes per contest, and the only reason he doesn't play more is he slows down the fast attack Winthrop wants to throw at opponents. They're also deep, playing 11 guys and looking to wear down opponents with their up and down game. They want to run, and utilize the defensive glass and steals to get out in transition. Hell, they even run off of makes, so you better be ready for a track meet against this team. Unfortunately for Villanova, they could end up playing right into the Eagles' hand. They will be without point guard Collin Gillespie, who really is the main ball handler for this team. They're 0-2 since he went down, which obviously isn't ideal. And Justin Moore, the other guy who handles the ball, is also banged up, and may not be 100% for this game. Plus, they don't have a deep rotation, so fatigue could be an issue at the end of a game they should be played at a blistering pace. Now, Villanova is still the favorite in this matchup, and with good reason. The biggest one, literally and figuratively, is Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. He was the Big East player of the year, and the Wildcats' center is going to be an issue for Winthrop. He's too quick for Burns to guard if he isn't posting up, and too strong for anyone else the Eagles may want to throw at him. He's got four double doubles in his past six games, and scored 26 points last time out, so he should be the main weapon. Additionally, Justin Moore is still on track to play, and the sophomore is a really gifted scorer in the backcourt. And on the wing, Caleb Daniels, Brandon Slater, Cole Swider, and Jermaine Samuels are going to be tough to deal with for Winthrop. All of them can shoot it from deep, and if you've ever seen a Jay Wright team play, you know they're going to get open looks from beyond the arc. I have to say though, I like the Eagles here. Villanova seems like they could struggle with ball security and this game could be played at Winthrop's pace, which should help their potent offense in this one. Plus, they have good size and athleticism, so they shouldn't be overmatched in that department. I just think the loss of Gillespie will really hurt this team and lead to Pat Kelsey's bunch picking up a big upset.
My Pick: Winthrop
ATS: Winthrop +6.5, over 143
4. Purdue vs 13. North Texas
Line: Purdue -7.5, o/u 126.5
Preview: If you think back to the last time we saw March Madness, Purdue got matched up with Conference USA tournament champions Old Dominion in the first round. It was a gross, low scoring affair thanks to Old Dominion playing hard nosed defense, keeping the tempo low, and forcing Carsen Ewards into a lot of bad shots. Well, this year, Purdue takes on Conference USA tournament champions North Texas in what projects to be a gross, low scoring game on account of North Texas playing hard nosed defense and slowing down the pace. Now, this obviously isn't the same Purdue team, Carsen Edwards isn't walking through that door, but still, the similarities are stark. For the Boilermakers, the story is what it always seems to be: they make their living thanks to effective post play from the giants that always seem to love coming to play for Matt Painter. Trevion Williams is the new age Caleb Swanigan, and Zack Edey is basically just Isaac Hass with different color hair. History certainly likes to repeat itself with these Boilermakers (Sasha Stefanovic is also just Dakota Mathias but worse). Outside of all these freakish comparisons, Purdue is really young this year. They don't have any seniors in their rotation, and they play multiple freshmen. Jaden Ivey is a really talented freshman guard who is averaging double figures, and fellow freshman Brandon Newman and Mason Gills contribute on the wing. One key for the Boilermakers is being able to hit shots from the outside. Ivey isn't much of a shooter, so a lot of the burden falls on Stefanovic, Newman, and Isaiah Thompson. Otherwise, it opens the door for double teams in the post, which obviously isn't ideal. As for North Texas, their identity is on the defensive end, but they actually have four double digit scorers, most notably guard Javion Hamlet. He's relied on a lot to create shots, whether for himself or others, off the bounce. They will also put him and big man Zachary Simmons in pick and rolls, and look for Simmons in pst up situations. Add in James Reese and Thomas Bell knocking down shots from the perimeter, and it was a solid offense in Conference USA. The issue for the Mean Green comes if Purdue can stop Hamlet. They have the requisite size to deal with Simmons in the post, so they shouldn't be doubling off of shooters, but they'll need to be able to guard Hamlet. If they can force him into a lot of iso situations, and his man, whether it's Ivey or Newman or someone else, can stay in front of him, then it could be an ugly game offensively for the Mean Green. I wouldn't feel too bullish about North Texas's chances either. They matched up with three tournament teams, Arkansas, West Virginia, and Loyola Chicago, as well as Mississippi State in the non-conference. In those games, they averaged just 54 points, which you'd have to figure won't be enough to best Purdue. I think it will be a lower scoring, grind it out type of game, but I think the matchup in the post is a huge positive in Purdue's favor and they'll be able to make enough shots from the outside to pull away from North Texas in the second half.
My Pick: Purdue
ATS: Purdue -7.5, under 126.5
6. Texas Tech vs 11. Utah State
Line: Texas Tech -4, o/u 131.5
Preview: This is one of the toughest matchups to pick in the entire first round. On one hand, Texas Tech is a somewhat proven commodity under Chris Beard: they're going to play some great defense and rely on their guard to make plays offensively. It worked pretty well last time we saw them in the tournament, going to overtime in the national title game against Virginia. The formula is mostly the same this year. The Red Raiders have an effective defense based on forcing their opponents to take tough mid-range jumpers, Offensively, like I mentioned, the onus is on their guards to make things happen. Luckily, Mac McClung is an absolutely electric player and is capable of scoring at any time against anyone. Second leading scorer Terrance Shannon is a wing who can score at three levels, while guards Kyler Edwards and Kevin McCullar also chip in, Edwards with shooting and McCullar with his slashing and defense. Marcos Santos-Silva mans the middle, and he's an effective weapon there for the Red Raiders. He hits the offensive glass hard, grabbing three offensive rebounds a game. That could be much harder to come by in this game though, because Utah State center has one of the best centers in the country in Neemias Queta. The Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year is a force on the interior, blocking 3.2 shots a game for the Aggies, so he should deter those guards from driving into the lane. He also averages a double double, scoring 15 points and grabbing 10 boards per game. Utah State's offense runs through him in the post, and he's been lethal, obviously, leading his team in scoring. The Portuguese big man will give Santos-Silva all he can handle, although I fully expect Chris Beard to send double teams early and often when the ball enters the post. They're going to force someone else to beat them, and Utah State has a couple of candidates. Justin Bean is a versatile forward who attacks the basket and offensive glass well, Marco Anthony, a Virginia transfer who does a good job of scoring, and Brock Miller knocks down his shots from the perimeter. Still, I bet Chris Beard wants those guys with the ball in their hands while the Red Raiders' defense converges on them. For Utah State, they hold a big advantage on the glass. They pull down the seventh most rebounds in the nation, getting 40.8 a game, and they should be able to exploit Tech on the offensive glass for easy put-back opportunities. Bean especially I think could do well in that area, and of course Queta is always a threat on the glass. The offensive glass is also an area Texas Tech likes to attack, but the Aggies should be able to exert their dominance there. However, I' be worried about turnovers if I was Craig Smith. The Red Raiders excel at forcing turnovers and defending in scramble situations, which should create chaos out of the Queta double teams I expect to see, and I don't know how the Aggies will handle that. It's a close matchup, but I believe the Red Raiders have more shot makers and can get easy transition buckets when Queta can't defend the rim, and pull out a close one.
My Pick: Texas Tech
ATS: Utah State +4
3. Arkansas vs 14. Colgate
Line: Arkansas -8.5, o/u 161
Preview: If you like offense, make sure you tune into this one. Because there are going to be points scored here. Starting with the team you may not be familiar with, Colgate, yes, like the toothpaste, is one of the top mid-majors in the nation. They're led by point guard and Patriot League Player of the Year Jordan Burns, who's averaging 17 points a game and 5.3 assists. He does what the whole team does well, shoot the ball. He makes 42.2% of his threes, which is a pretty damn good number. The team as a whole makes 40.2% of their threes, including Jack Ferguson, who makes 51.5% of his shots from deep. They look to push the pace and get up quick shots, exploiting their opponents weak transition defense to get open shots. It should be noted as well they rank ninth in the NET, but they also basically didn't play out of conference and haven't played anyone good all year. Also, defense is not the Raiders' strong suit, and that's something that will have Eric Musselman licking his chops. His Razorbacks also like to run, and they are electric in transition with the athletes they have. Moses Moody is one of the best scorers in the country in my opinion, and he leads Arkansas with 17.4 points a game. Their other guards are all very capable in their own right, JD Notae and Jalen Tate both average double figures and Desi Sills and Devontae Davis get their own buckets as well. Because of their pace, Arkansas likes to play smaller, and that leads to Indiana transfer Justin Smith playing center despite being 6'7". They do also have 7'3" Conner Vannover, 6'10" Jaylen Williams, and 6'9" Vance Jackson, but Smith gets a lot of minutes at the 5 and it's a lethal lineup offensively. They get out in transition, they space the floor, they attack the rim, they shoot it from deep, and Smith is an excellent offensive rebounder, 3 a game, to clean up misses. Defensively, they match up perfectly with Colgate. As mentioned, they like to play small, as do the Raiders, except Arkansas' guards are bigger, longer, faster, and more talented. Moody and Tate both stand 6'6", Notae is a glove defensively, averaging 1.5 steals a game, and Davis has been a guy who came on strong on the defensive end in the second half of his freshman year. Smith could be a little undersized against Colgate's two 6'10"+ bigs, but again, Arkansas has options if they want to go bigger. It just feels like two similar teams, except one is a high major team and one plays in the Patriot League. The pace the Raiders play at is the same one that the Razorbacks do, and the Razorbacks do it better. They have better athletes, which is key in a track meet, they can defend better, and they should be able to exploit a weak Colgate defense. There will be points all around and shots going up at a rate that will make Mike D'Antoni happy, and I think the Razorbacks end up winning comfortably in a shootout.
My Pick: Arkansas
ATS: Arkansas -8.5, over 161.5
7. Florida vs 10. Virginia Tech
Line: Virginia Tech -1, o/u 135
Preview: Florida had one of the worst moments of the college basketball season when star Keyontae Johnson collapsed on the court, and I'm incredibly happy that he's reportedly made a full recovery. Still, from a purely basketball perspective, it obviously hurts the Gators. But, since then, point guard Tre Mann has stepped up to be a star, averaging 16 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.5 steals this season, while shooting just under 40% from three. He makes the Gators go, and he'll be key to beating this Hokies' squad. Tyree Appleby and Noah Locke contribute shooting next to him to spread the floor, giving them a really nice guard combo. Scottie Lewis, a former five star, and Anthony Duruji, a Louisiana Tech transfer, are athletic forwards for this Gators team, and Michigan transfer Collin Castleton is a nice presence inside. The Gators don't do anything great, but they don't do anything poorly, and I think they're a nice, solid 7 seed. As for Virginia Tech, they've been slowed down due to COVID this year, especially recently, only playing four times since the start of February. They have a great coach with Mike Young on the sidelines, who was the architect of the Fletcher Magee Wofford teams, and he's got another free flowing offense with Virginia Tech. They get a lot of open shots from three thanks to their beautiful off ball screens and movement, and they hit them at a fairly high clip. Their star has been Keve Aluma, a member of that Wofford squad, and he has been even better in the ACC, averaging 15.6 points and 8 rebounds this year, improving his numbers after a step up in competition. Justyn Mutts is an athletic forward, another transfer from Delaware, plays next to him in the front court, and Tyrese Radford, a 6'2" power forward somehow, could give this team an advantage on the glass in this one, especially offensively. And then guys like Naheem Alleyne and Hunter Cattoor can make shots from deep, Wabissa Bede distributes it well, and freshman Joe Bamisille should be more of a contributor with Jalen Cone out with an ankle injury. However, I'm leaning Florida here, for a few reason. One, I've just never gotten behind the Hokies this year. I don't know what it is, but I just haven't been impressed by them at any point I've watched them. I also think Castleton could have a good game against Aluma, who is a bit undersized and has been poor against post ups, and I think they can hit shots from beyond the arc on kick outs off of double teams. I also think the Gators have the best player on the floor with Tre Mann, and that's enough for me to take the Gators in a matchup that I just don't have a ton of feel on, to be completely honest.
My Pick: Florida
ATS: Florida +1
2. Ohio State vs 15. Oral Roberts
Line: Ohio State -16, o/u 157
Preview: Here at Three Point Range, we love teams and players that shoot the ball from behind the arc with reckless abandon. So let me introduce you to Oral Roberts. The Golden Eagles live and die by the three, and with good reason. They are taking 29 threes a game, and making 11.3, which is the most in college basketball. For those of you who don't have a calculator handy, that's a 39% clip, eighth highest in the NCAA. It's led them to average 81.8 points per game this season, which is the 12th most of any team. They have an absolutely lethal pick and pop combination with Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor. Abmas is their point guard and the nation's leading scorer, averaging 24.4 PPG, while shooting 43.8% from three on 8.3 attempts per game. He put up 30+ 7 times, including in four straight games, a stretch bookended by performances of 42 and 41 points and where he shot 60% from three. So the kid can shoot. And if you double him off a screen, he'll find Obanor, a 6'8" junior averaging 18.2 points on 46.9% shooting. He also grabs 9.5 boards, just in case you wanted him to do more. Add in Kareem Thompson (41.5%) and DeShang Weaver (38.8%), and you've got yourself the Splash Quintuplets. The scariest part for Ohio State? They've played good teams. Oral Roberts faced 5 teams who made the tournament in the non-conference: Missouri, Wichita State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. Two of those games finished within single digits, they led Arkansas at the half, and the only one that finished outside the 16.5 spread was Missouri, their first game of the year. And their stars performed too. Abmas averaged 22.4 points in those five, shooting 44.4% from deep and dishing out 5.6 assists with an assist to turnover ratio well over 2. Obanor put up 19.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, and while he only shot 32% from three, made 55.6% of his shots inside the arc. They've won five straight, including obviously capturing the Summit League crown. This is a dangerous 15 seed if there ever was one. Now, obviously, Ohio State is still a massive favorite, and with good reason. They went through the gauntlet that was the Big Ten this season, and emerged with a winning record. They did finish the regular season losing their final four games, but they bounced back in the Big Ten Tournament, beating Purdue and Michigan on their way to the final where they lost to Illinois in overtime. Guard Duane Washington has been key to that run, with their leading scorer putting up 23 a game in the Big Ten tournament. He's an excellent all around scorer from all three levels, and he's a threat. So is EJ Liddell, the sophomore forward and former top 50 recruit who will give Oral Roberts fits on the interior. Plus, he can step out and play on the perimeter, making him a real bad matchup for Obanor. Add in CJ Walker, a veteran point guard, Justice Sueing, a versatile forward, and Justin Ahrens, a sniper from deep, and this Ohio State team gives you a versatile attack offensively. They are also strong defensively, and should have a talent advantage over their Summit League opponents. I'm SUPER tempted to predict the 15-2 upset here, but I'm taking the Buckeyes. Don't be surprised if this is a single digit game, however.
My Pick: Ohio State
ATS: Oral Roberts +16, over 157
The Rest of the Bracket
Round of 32
1. Baylor vs 8. North Carolina
Preview: This is going to be a really tough matchup for Baylor. The Bears' defense went through a mini-slump of sorts towards the end of the year, not playing up to their usual lofty levels. They'll need to be locked in for this one. Even at their best, this isn't the best defensive rebounding team, allowing opponents to collect 31% of their misses this season, and as mentioned earlier, North Carolina can eat teams alive on the glass. Still, I like Baylor here for two reasons. One, I think they can make things really hard on Caleb Love, or whoever the Tar Heels put at point guard. Davion Mitchell is one of the best defensive guards in the country, and he should be able to make things really difficult on the freshman and take North Carolina out of their offensive flow. Guard play is so important in March, and Baylor holds a big advantage there. Also, if I cast my mind back a few weeks to March 1, the Tar Heels played against my Syracuse Orange. They dominated the glass in that matchup, grabbing 48 rebounds to Syracuse's 30, including 21 on the offensive end, but lost the game thanks to hot shooting from the Orange. I can definitely see that happening again here, where UNC wins the rebounding battle, but loses the game.
My Pick: Baylor
4. Purdue vs 12. Winthrop
Preview: This one is interesting to me, because I think Winthrop actually has some nice advantages here. For one, DJ Burns probably won't get played off the floor, because Purdue's bigs are more big and physical than athletic and skilled, and that suits Burns' game more. And when he is off the floor, I think Williams and Edey could have a lot of trouble guarding Winthrop if the Eagles go five out and force the big men away from the basket. Plus, the sheer pace of the game could spell trouble for those two, as they aren't exactly the fastest players in the world, and I know Pat Kelsey will want his guys to get out and attack the rim in transition when Purdue's bigs aren't back on defense yet. I also think the up and down nature of Winthrop could be an issue for Purdue's guards. The Boilermakers definitely want to play a slower pace, but the Eagles are going to press and try to make the game more chaotic. How will freshman point guard Jaden Ivey handle that? I'm not saying he will struggle, turnovers haven't been a huge issue for him, but it's a question worth asking. Winthrop will also double the post here you'd assume, and the Boilermakers are going to need to hit shots from deep, but their shooting has been streaky. If they can keep it a half court game, yes, Purdue definitely has the advantage. The size in the post will be an advantage, even with Burns in the game, and they have guys to guard Vaudrin. However, I like the Eagles here. I think they can speed Purdue up, get the game played more in the open court, and outshoot the Boilermakers on their way to a Cinderella run to the Sweet 16.
My Pick: Winthrop
3. Arkansas vs 6. Texas Tech
Preview: Upon first glance, this may look like a favorable matchup for the Red Raiders. They have the ability to slow down a team that is typically looking to run and play more of a grind it out, half court, defensive game, which is not how Eric Musselman likes to play. However, looking a bit deeper, that isn't actually the case. The Razorbacks actually have a stout defensive unit, ranking fourteenth in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom, and only look bad on paper because they give up so many points as a result of their style of play. But as I sort of touched on in the Colgate preview, they have a lot of good defenders. Notae, Davis, Tate, and Moody are all good on that side of the ball, and I think they'll prevent issues for the Red Raiders perimeter players. They rely so much on guys like Mac McClung creating shots out of iso, but with a guy like Tate, who is bigger and longer, or Davis, who is a real bulldog defensively, guarding him, it will be much harder to get those late shot clock iso jumpers to fall. Plus, Arkansas does a good job keeping teams off the offensive glass, further limiting the chances for Texas Tech to get easy bucket. And offensively, I do think it could be more difficult for Arkansas playing the game in the half court against Texas Tech, but a) this isn't as elite of a Chris Beard defense and there should be some holes to exploit and b) the Razorbacks will still find their spots to run and get those easier transition buckets. I think this is another pretty good matchup for Arkansas, and they'll be moving on.
My Pick: Arkansas
2. Ohio State vs 7. Florida
Preview: As I said earlier, I don't have a great feel for what this Florida team is. I didn't watch them a ton, and something about them feels weird to me. To be honest, like I said in their preview, I think they're just a solid team, but nothing special, and they'll need more than that to beat Ohio State. The Buckeyes' offensive attack is fearsome, and should cause problems for the Gators in this one. Duane Washington and EJ Liddell is such a tough duo to guard, and I'm not sure the Gators can do it. One potential x-factor is the availability of Ohio State big Kyle Young. He may be out with a concussion, and he's the quintisential glue guy with his work on the glass and defensively, and he'd be their best answer to Castleton in the post. I like Florida to keep it close for a while, but the Buckeye's are just too much for them.
My Pick: Ohio State
Sweet Sixteen
1. Baylor vs 12. Winthrop
Preview: You would have to figure Scott Drew would be happy with this draw, no disrespect intended for Winthrop. I've made it pretty clear I like the Eagles, but this is a fairly brutal matchup for them. For one, they have to deal with the potent offense of Baylor. They won't be able to force a ton of turnovers against the Bears, thanks to their three experienced guards who take good care of the ball, and if they are pressing, it will likely just result in easy buckets at the other end. And in the half court, the athleticism that Baylor possesses should really pose problems for Winthrop's defense. And when the Eagles do have the ball, Mark Vital is a pretty solid answer to Chandler Vaudrin. He's a really good defender and has the size and strength to throw Vaudrin off his rhythm a little bit, leaving Mitchell and Butler to bother the other guards Winthrop have and keep them from getting open looks from three. Baylor just has a lot of advantages over the Eagles, and I think this is where the clock hits midnight on Cinderella.
My Pick: Baylor
2. Ohio State vs 3. Arkansas
Preview: This is another game that I think has the chance to be really, really good. It's two potent offenses matched up, and this one should be a high scoring affair. For Ohio State, finding ways to get Duane Washington open is going to be key. As I keep mentioning, the Razorbacks' perimeter defenders are really pesky, and can make life hard on Washington. Iso ball definitely isn't the answer, so Chris Holtmann will have to draw up sets to get his star wing open. I also think Justin Smith is a solid matchup for EJ Liddell, as he has the athleticism to stick with the Buckeyes' forward when he moves out to the perimeter, and the size to guard him inside. The Ohio State defense has been somewhat vulnerable, allowing 71 points a game, and that number is around 76 in losses. Against this Arkansas team that can put up points in a hurry, that's not what you want to see if you're a Buckeye fan. I think guarding Moses Moody can be difficult for them, and I see the Razorbacks end up edging this one out.
My Pick: Arkansas
Elite Eight
1. Baylor vs 3. Arkansas
Preview: What a game this would be. I think we'd see a lot of high, high level stuff on both sides here, and it'd be an excellent watch. Baylor's potent offense up against the strong perimeter defense of the Razorbacks is must see TV, and watching Scott Drew try to contain Eric Musselman's run and gun system is a coaching matchup for the ages. There's star power with Moses Moody and Jared Butler, there's two fun offenses and two good defenses pitted against each other, I'm excited just thinking about it. Ultimately though, I side with the Bears. Arkansas' tempo won't effect Baylor as much with their experienced guard play in the backcourt, and they could really dictate whatever tempo they want in this one, as Davion Mitchell should harass JD Notae while bringing the ball up and make it difficult for the Razorbacks to force turnovers and run in transition. The biggest key in what could be more of a half court game is Baylor's ability to shoot the ball. They're lethal from deep, making 41.8% of their threes and have six guys shooting over 38% from three. Meanwhile, Arkansas makes just 33.9% of their threes, and in a game as close as this one, not being able to match the Bears' behind the arc could prove to be the difference. I'm taking Baylor to go to the Final Four.
My Pick: Baylor
Comments
Post a Comment