Starting off my region by region previews is the Midwest. Headlined by Illinois, it's got a ton of great teams, and especially some great players. It also has my Syracuse Orange, so it's the region I've spent the most time looking at, trying to figure out the route for the Orange to make a Final Four run. I'll have the South preview up tomorrow sometime from 1-2, and then the West and East will go up on Friday, after we get the results from the First Four. If you want to be the first to know when you can see them, follow me on Twitter @ThreePointRange where I'll be talking about the tournament as it happens, as well as posting whatever blog updates come along. Without further ado, let's dig into some hoops.
1. Illinois vs 16. Drexel
Line: Illinois -23, o/u 144
Preview: I mean look, Illinois is going to win this game. They're going to win it handily. Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn alone are enough to beat Drexel. Add in all the other studs the Fighting Illini have, and it's a no-brainer. I don't mean to discredit the Dragons, they won their final four games of the season, including three in the CAA tournament, which is no easy feat in a tough league. They also pushed Pittsburgh, losing by nine, and have a well rounded team, with four players scoring in double figures. They're led by first team All-CAA player Camren Wynter. He averaged 16.8 points and 5.3 assists a game this year, and shoots 42.5% from three. The Robin to his Batman is third team All-CAA player James Butler, who transferred from Navy and has been solid ever since. He averaged a double double last season, and came close again this year, putting up 12.9 points and 9.2 rebounds for the Dragons. Add in TJ Bickerstaff and Zach Walton, both double digit scorers, and this is a really solid mid-major team. They did also get hit hard by cancellations this year, losing 10 games to cancellations. But they're just facing a team that is flat out better. Illinois is playing maybe the best of any time in the country right now, and they shouldn't have too much trouble here. Drexel doesn't have a matchup for Cockburn, although to be fair, most teams don't, and the guard play of Illinois is going to be hard for the Dragons to deal with, especially given the depth of talent the Illini possess. I really think Illinois could get whatever they want whenever they want on the offensive end against this Drexel team. Illinois definitely has what it takes to slay the Dragons in this one.
My Pick: Illinois
ATS: Illinois -23, over 144
8. Loyola Chicago vs 9. Georgia Tech
Line: Loyola Chicago -3, o/u 126
Preview: This is one of the tougher games to pick in the entire tournament. We have two surging squads, with former Cinderella's Loyola Chicago and ACC Tournament champions. The Ramblers have been one of the top teams according to the advanced metrics all year long. They currently rank ninth in KenPom, and top 20 in all the other sites as well. They've gotten it done with an elite defense, forcing teams to go to the mid range for shots. They don't foul, giving up just 11.4 free throws a game, lowest mark in Divsion I, hold down the defensive glass, grabbing the seventh most defensive rebounds in the nation, and do an excellent job of controlling the tempo, playing slowly but keeping their opponents to some of the lowest marks in terms of field goal attempts, three point attempts, two point field goal percentage, and points per game. On the offensive side, the offense moves through Cameron Krutwig, the Missouri Valley Player of the Year. He averages 15 points, 6.7 rebounds, 3 assists, 1.2 blocks, and 1.1 steals, leading the team in all those categories with the exception of the last one. The big man is lethal from the high post, able to score with really good post moves or pass to the open man when defenses collapse onto him. And the rest of the roster can capitalize on that, with the other four starters all shooting over 35% from three and just playing very smart basketball. They cut well off the ball, make the extra pass, and shoot it well. Now, the Yellow Jackets are going to provide resistance defensively. They play a 1-3-1 zone that can be very difficult to adapt to, and the Ramblers haven't faced a lot of zone defense this year. Jose Alvarado is a pest at the top, averaging three steals a game and generally harassing opposing guards. Porter Moser is a great coach who can come up with an effective game plan, but Georgia Tech does a good job of taking away the middle of the floor, which could really hurt what Loyola wants to accomplish. Offensively, the Yellow Jackets are also run through a do-it-all big man, ACC Player of the Year Moses Wright. He averages 17.4 points a game, 8 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.6 blocks, and 1.5 steals. He's surrounded by Alvarado, who scores 15.3 points a game, and junior Michael Devoe, 15.1 PPG, with both guards shooting 38.9% and 40.1% from deep respectively. USC transfer Jordan Usher is a forward who attacks the basket well, although past those four the offense takes a sharp drop off. And the Ramblers have a stout defense, as mentioned earlier, and will look to run the two guards off of the three point line and keep Moses Wright off of the offensive glass, where he does great work, averaging 3.2 offensive boards a game. This is such a tough one to predict. Both teams match up fairly well with the other defensively. I think Georgia Tech can limit what Krutwig can do from the foul line by preventing a lot of those entry passes, and Alvarado will do a good job of bothering the Ramblers' guards. But I also think Loyola will keep Wright off the offensive glass, and force the guards to take tougher shots than they might be used to. One constant in the Yellow Jackets' losses has been turnover issues, and while Loyola doesn't force turnovers at a particularly high rate, I think the Ramblers can make things uncomfortable for the ball handlers on Georgia Tech. I'm also interested to see the battle of the bigs. One of the best things Krutwig does is stay out of foul trouble, which could end up being the difference in this game. He can likely stay on the court for 30+ minutes, which could potentially be more of an issue for Wright. I should also note the Georgia Tech has a member of their program in COVID protocol, but no word on if it's a member of the coaching staff or a player or what. Either way, it's a razor close game, but I think the secondary pieces on Georgia Tech are just a little better and should be enough to edge out the Ramblers in this one. I'm definitely going to take the points, as this one could very easily come down to the wire.
My Pick: Georgia Tech
ATS: Georgia Tech +3
5. Tennessee vs 12. Oregon State
Line: Tennessee -7.5, o/u 130
Preview: The 5-12 game is obviously always a popular spot for an upset, but do the Beavers have what it takes to knock off the Volunteers? Oregon State made a nice run through the Pac-12 tournament, taking down three tournament teams in UCLA, Oregon, and Colorado en route to winning the tournament, and have won 6 of 7 entering March. They're powered by guards Ethan Thompson and Jarod Lucas, who are the only two players scoring in double figures for the Beavers. Lucas especially has come on strong down the stretch, scoring 15.1 points a game and shooting 39.5% from three over their last seven games. On the interior, Wairth Alatishe, a transfer from Nicholls State, averages 9.9 points and 8.5 rebounds, with 3.3 of those coming on the offensive glass. He had two double doubles in the Pac-12 tournament, and six others in the regular season. They're also just playing with extreme confidence at the moment, and they've certainly saved their best basketball for the right time. Meanwhile, Tennessee has made its name on the defensive end this season, holding opponents to 63.2 points a game this season. They have a lot of long and athletic players, notably freshmen Keon Johnson and sophomore Josiah-Jordan James. And of course, the marvel of their defense is Yves Pons, an athletic freak who is fearsome in the paint, averaging 1.9 blocks a game. On the offensive end, they rely a lot on their guards to make plays for them. The aforementioned Johnson is a key part of that, as he's been great down the stretch for the Vols, putting up 17.5 points per game over the past four, and also contributing on the glass. Fellow freshman Jaden Springer is the leading scorer, and he can certainly fill it up. Oregon transfer Victor Bailey is also a prolific scorer, although he's much streakier than the numbers may lead you to believe and needs to be hitting shots from deep to be effective offensively. Santiago Vescovi also contributes in the backcourt with his shooting, and James and Pons thrive at attacking the rim. They do have a big question heading into this one with big man John Fulkerson potentially out with a concussion after a nasty injury suffered against Florida. Without him, things could get funky, as they'll be playing Pons at the five or a player like Uros Plavsic, who doesn't play a ton. They also struggle with shooting when Bailey is cold, and I expect Oregon State to throw some zones at them and dare them to shoot. I do think that will be an issue, and Fulkerson's injury, if it does keep him out, is an X-factor. I think they have enough talent to win this one, especially since I think they can shut down the Oregon State guards with their stellar defenders in the backcourt. Still, I expect this one to be close for a while before Tennessee picks up a win.
My Pick: Tennessee
ATS: Tennessee -7.5
4. Oklahoma State vs 13. Liberty
Line: Oklahoma State -7, o/u 139.5
Preview: Obviously, the main thing in this matchup is Oklahoma State's star freshman Cade Cunningham. The first team All-American and likely #1 draft pick is a bona-fide star, and he's been pretty ridiculous this year. He's averaging 20.2 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.4 steals, and shooting 41.2% from three. He's pretty ridiculous and quite possibly the best player in the nation. He makes everything tick for the Cowboys, and shutting him down is key for Liberty. But Oklahoma State has other talented players. Sophomore guard Avery Anderson has taken a step forward this year, and he's averaging 11.7 PPG for the Pokes. Rondel Walker and Bryce Williams add some shooting into their backcourt, but that is certainly not a strength for this team. They prefer to force turnovers and run in transition, where Cade's court vision is electric and their athletic guards shine. Kalib Boone and Matthew-Alexander Montcrieffe are solid up front, and Isaac Likekele is a swiss army knife for this team, leading them in rebounds despite being a guard and also playing excellent, physical defense. There's a pretty good chance he'll be matched up with Liberty's star Darius McGhee. McGhee is just 5'9", so Likekele could really bother him with his size an physicality, but the Flames' star is an electric player. He averages 15.6 points a game and shoots 41.3% from deep, and can hit shots from anywhere on the court. McGhee has been a star down the stretch, scoring 22.7 points a game and shooting a blistering 53.7% from deep, so he's definitely a player to watch. Joining him in the backcourt is Chris Parker, another player who shoots well from deep. The whole team can light it up from behind the arc, making 39.1% of their threes on the year. Seeing as Ritchie McKay is a Tony Bennett disciple, he's playing a similar way to Virginia. They have the pack line defense and the much slower pace, meaning whoever can control the tempo should have an advantage. Personally, I think Oklahoma State's defense can cause a lot of issues for the Flames. I think the size and athleticism of Oklahoma State's guards will really bother McGhee, especially when you look at what happens when they face high major opposition. He scored 10 against South Carolina, 15 against TCU, and 9 against Missouri, although he did have big numbers against Purdue and Mississippi State. Still, Likekele is a great defender and I think the Cowboys can cause issues for him and Parker with their size, force turnovers, and play more of the game in the open court than Liberty wants. The Flames can keep it close if they slow it down and force it into more half court settings, but I don't see Cade losing early and I think they cause too many problems for this Liberty squad.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
ATS: Oklahoma State -7
6. San Diego State vs 11. Syracuse
Line: San Diego State -3, o/u 139
Preview: Alright, so if you know anything about me, you know I'm a Syracuse basketball fan. I go to the school, I watch every game, I'm very biased. If you think I'm not picking Syracuse, you're crazy. I say that knowing that, objectively, this is a very tough matchup. San Diego State is really good. Matt Mitchell is an absolute stud, and I can envision him tearing the zone up from the foul line. Jordan Schakel is an excellent wing who really shoots it, he's averaging 14.3 points and shooting 46.7% from three. Plus, Terrell Gomez shoots it well from deep, with 41.7% three point shooting, and Nathan Mensah can cause issues on the interior. He's one of the better shot blockers in the tournament, and should deter Syracuse from coming inside. They defend well as a whole, with Mitchell and Schakel having excellent length and the ability to match up with anyone on the perimeter. They're a good team. Are they going to beat Syracuse? Obviously not. The Orange are playing their best basketball of the season right now, beating North Carolina, Clemson, and North Carolina State before losing to Virginia on a buzzer beater in the ACC Tournament. A major reason for that resurgence? Buddy Boeheim has been unreal. Ever since he caught fire in a comeback win against Notre Dame, the coach's kid has been on another level, averaging 23.3 points a game over his last seven, and shooting 46.3% from three on 9 attempts a game. He had a career high 31 in their last game against Virginia, and I can see him staying hot. The big X-factor may be Alan Griffin in this one. He is typically either really hot, and lighting it up from deep, or really cold, and completely ineffective. He'll typically make one highlight worthy play a game, so be on the lookout for him to do something very fancy, and if he's on, that's very dangerous for whoever Syracuse's opponent is. Plus, if Joe Girard can brake out of his shooting slump, then it could be raining threes in this one, but don't count on that. Freshman Kadary Richmond has been the better point guard this season, largely thanks to his defensive contributions, and his size and length makes him excellent in the paint and at the top of the zone. Quincy Guerrier is a force on the glass and is their best player down low, but if you don't love Marek Dolezaj, the quintessential glue guy in college basketball, then I don't like you. Like I said, I recognize the challenges of facing a tough defense and a team that can shoot it from deep. One other point in the Orange's favor is San Diego State runs a pack line defense, known for being susceptible to threes, and this team loves to shoot. Not only that, but they just spent time preparing for the pack line having faced Virginia in their last game, and they almost won that one, so I think they can break down the Aztecs defense with some hot shooting from Buddy Buckets and Griffin. Go Orange.
My Pick: Syracuse
ATS: Syracuse +3
3. West Virginia vs 14. Morehead State
Line: West Virginia -12.5, o/u 138
Preview: If you're expecting Jevon Carter and Press Virginia in this matchup, then you'll be in for a shock. The Mountaineers are built around their offense this season with the guard trio of Miles McBride, Taz Sherman, and Sean McNeil all producing at a high level ever since Oscar Tshiebwe transferred mid-season. Those three are combining for 40.8 points a game and all shooting at least 36.6% from three. McBride is the most consistent of the three, while Sherman can be a bit streaky, but on the whole, all three of these guys are really good in the backcourt. Add in Emmett Matthews and Jalen Bridges as versatile forwards, and the rotation around big man Derek Culver is really solid. Culver is a force, scoring 14.6 points a game along with 9.8 rebounds. Part of what makes him so successful is his ability to grab offensive rebounds and then draw fouls, taking 6.7 free throws a game. As mentioned, this isn't the lockdown defense we're used to seeing from the Mountaineers, but they compete for all 40 minutes as you'd expect from a Bob Huggins team. On the other side, Morehead State is led by their own big man, freshman Johni Broome. He's averaging 13.9 points and 9 boards a game. He's playing excellently right now putting up double doubles in five of his past six, including a 27 point, 12 rebound effort against Belmont in the OVC Championship. Much like West Virginia, they surround their star big with shooters. DeVon Cooper, Skyelar Potter, and Ta'Lon Cooper all shoot it well from behind the arc, and they actually match up well size wise with the Mountaineers backcourt. The Eagles play good defense, but I think West Virginia will be able to take them down. I think Culver is going to be too much for Broome, who has yet to play a guy with his physicality and strength, and I think he could be overwhelmed. And if Broome gets into any foul trouble, it could be the beginning of the end for them in this one. I'm taking the Mountaineers, but I think the line is too high in this one and the Eagles hang around for long enough to cover.
My Pick: West Virginia
ATS: Morehead State +12
7. Clemson vs 10. Rutgers
Line: Rutgers -1.5, o/u 125.5
Preview: Boy oh boy, in a region full of games that could be ugly, this sticks out as an absolute rock fight. This is two teams that love to defend and, uh, let's say are prone to cold streaks on offense. Starting with Clemson, their offense runs through one guy: Aamir Sims. He leads the team in points, rebounds, assists, and blocks, and is an extremely skilled forward that does a ton of different stuff for this team. He can score inside and out, passes well, and hits the offensive glass. He's a stud, and Rutgers will have their hands full trying to slow him down. He's surrounded by shooters, and I quite like the backcourt combo of Nick Honor and Al-Amir Dawes. They each shoot over 38% from deep, and are very solid ball handlers as well. Plus Hunter Tyson and Alex Hemenway shoot it well from beyond the arc, so they space it well around Sims. They're also solid defensively, holding teams to just 62 points a game on the season, and they love to play grind it out games. So does Steve Pikiell and Rutgers though, and they have a nice team this year. Myles Johnson is a stud on the defensive interior, blocking 2.5 shots a game for the Scarlet Knight. They do rely more on their guards for offense though, with Jacob Young, Geo Baker, and Rob Harper all scoring in double digits. Harper came out the gates red hot and looking like a potential NBA player, but has cooled off significantly, although he's played well recently, putting up 21 against Illinois in their conference tournament loss. Young is a quick twitch guy who can attack the rim well and he can shoot it from deep as well, knocking down 36% of his treys. Baker has been a mainstay in the Scarlet Knights' backcourt the last few seasons, and he's a rock solid player, although he can really go hot and cold with his jumper. I also think the Scarlet Knights have good depth, moreso than the Tigers, so they go beyond those top four guys. I think a key factor in this could be Aamir Sims getting into foul trouble. He's struggled with that this year, fouling out twice and getting four fouls four more times, and he pretty consistently has three fouls. Going up against a bigger, stronger center in Myles Johnson who grabs a ton of offensive rebounds and should be able to exploit Clemson's weaker front court in that area, and if Sims has to sit, that could decide this one. Another key factor is free throw shooting. There's a pretty huge disparity here, with Clemson shooting 76.5% from the line, 31st best in the country, while Rutgers is at just 63.2%, 332nd in the nation. That could be crucial in a game that projects to be close all the way through. I'm going with my home state roots and taking the Scarlet Knights in this one. I believe in their guard play more than the Tigers, and I think Johnson can cause a lot of issues for Sims defensively and potentially put him into foul trouble, which could be the difference in a razor tight matchup.
My Pick: Rutgers
ATS: Rutgers -1.5, under 125.5
2. Houston vs 15. Cleveland State
Line: Houston -20.5, o/u 135
Preview: This is another easy one. Cleveland State is by no means a bad team, they went 16-4 in the Horizon League which is no easy feat, and split against Wright State, the other 16-4 team in the conference. The trio of Torrey Patton, Tre Gomillion, and D'Moi Hodge gives them capable perimeter scoring options, although none are particularly good from deep, although Hodge sure likes to try (he shoots 29.2% from three on 5.2 attempts a game. Yikes). They're going to play hard as hell too, and I like Dennis Gates as a coach. But they're up against with this Houston matchup. Quentin Grimes has been a star since transferring from Kansas, really living up to his five star prospect billing with the Cougars. He's averaging 18 a game to go along with 6 rebounds, and also shooting 40% from three on 8 attempts a game. That production was rewarded with a Third Team All-American selection, and he comes in having scored 21 points in back to back games, so his confidence should be high. Marcus Sasser and Dejon Jarreau are also excellent guards, both averaging in double figures, and they play well on both ends of the floor. Freshman Tramon Mark is also capable of big things, giving Houston four good perimeter players to trot out against the Vikings. Their biggest advantage may actually be when those guys struggle though. The Cougars attack the offensive glass with a vengeance, grabbing 14.3 offensive rebounds a game, third most in the nation. Justin Gorham has done work in that department, getting 4 offensive rebounds a game, and big man Fabian White has returned after missing most the season with a torn ACL. They also play stifling defense, doing a great job of running opponents off the three point line and contesting everything at the rim. I think it will be tough for Cleveland State to score against the Houston defense, especially given they'll have an athleticism disadvantage. Plus, I think they could get eaten up on the glass, and I don't see how they stop Grimes offensively. Even if they do take him away, Houston has plenty of other options to get buckets. I expect them to win pretty easily, although the back door will always be open for a cover.
My Pick: Houston
ATS: Houston -20.5
The Rest of the Bracket
Round of 32
1. Illinois vs 9. Georgia Tech
Preview: Kicking off the rest of my picks, we have two conference tournament champions facing off with Illinois and Georgia Tech. Looking at this one, I just think Illinois has too much talent in this one. The Yellow Jackets are good, but Illinois is great. Jose Alvarado could hound Ayo Dosunmu all game, but that still leaves Andre Curbello, Trent Frazier, Adam Miller, and Demonte Williams on the perimeter, and those guys, outside of Curbello, have the ability to stretch the Georgia Tech's unconventional defense, and Moses Wright is going to have his hands full with Kofi Cockburn and Giorgi Bezhanishvili in the post. I might take Georgia Tech with the points depending on the line, but I like the Illini to win.
My Pick: Illinois
4. Oklahoma State vs 5. Tennessee
Preview: Yeah I'm gonna ride with Cade Cunningham here. Tennessee has options to check him, Josiah-Jordan James will probably be on him and could be a tough matchup, but I believe in the talent and I think the game could open up and play into the Cowboys' hands. I also think the John Fulkerson injury could really hurt them in this one, with Oklahoma State using their side advantage to take advantage of the Vols. I think the shooting of the Volunteers is an issue in this one, and I'm going to take my chance on the freakishly talented Cunningham and his squad.
My Pick: Oklahoma State
3. West Virginia vs 11. Syracuse
Preview: I like this matchup more than San Diego State for my Orange. This isn't the same West Virginia team we've seen in years past defensively, and I think Syracuse could take advantage. Will Derek Culver feast against the weak interior of Syracuse's zone? Absolutely. Will McBride, Sherman, and McNeil get open looks from deep? Almost certainly. But the zone is just so hard to prepare for on only one day's notice, and when the game has gotten up into the high 70s and 80s, it's typically spelled doom for the Mountaineers. This isn't a bias pick, I mean it probably kind of is, but I wasn't expecting to take Syracuse until I wrote this preview. Something about Jim Boeheim in March makes me think the Orange move on here.
My Pick: Syracuse
2. Houston vs 10. Rutgers
Preview: Another game that would seem to be low scoring in the Midwest, and I'm going to have to go with the team that has done it at a higher level all year, Houston. I really think Quinten Grimes is as good as any guard Rutgers has faced this season, and I'm not sure that Rutgers can score at the same level the Cougars can in this one. I think this is a bad matchup for them, and Houston claims the victory.
My Pick: Houston
Sweet Sixteen
1. Illinois vs 4. Oklahoma State
Preview: What a matchup in this one, with a showdown between Ayo Dosunmu and Cade Cunningham. Two All-Americans squaring off in the Sweet Sixteen. This one could end up being a classic, but I think the Fighting Illini edge it. The size of their big men could be the difference, with Cockuburn especially having the potential to dominate Kalib Boone and Matthew-Alexander Montcrieffe in the post. I do think that Isaac Likekele could be a problem for Dosunmu, but they have too much talent across the board and take care of the ball too well, eliminating some of those easy buckets the Cowboys like to get in transition. Cade could put on a show, but Illinois has equal star power and a better overall squad, leading them to victory.
My Pick: Illinois
2. Houston vs 11. Syracuse
Preview: This is where my Syracuse love runs out of steam. Houston absolutely has the guys to match up with the Orange on the perimeter, and Kelvin Sampson will have ample time to prepare for the 2-3 zone and find ways to get a red hot Quentin Grimes looks from beyond the arc in this one. Plus, they should get plenty of looks off of offensive rebound against a Syracuse team that struggles in that respect sometimes. Unfortunately, I have to pick against my guys here, but they'll leave with their head held high after a good run.
My Pick: Houston
Elite Eight
1. Illinois vs 2. Houston
Preview: A really nice matchup here in the Elite Eight, and if you haven't picked up on this, I love the Fighting Illini this year. I like their deep and talented group of perimeter players, obviously led by Ayo Dosunmu, I like their big men, I like how they're playing at the moment, and I think they advance on to the Final Four. I do like this Houston team as well, but I think Justin Gorham could struggle inside in this one and the guards are good enough shot makers, mostly Dosunmu, to hit some of the tough shots Houston forces you to take. One other thing I love about this Illinois team is how bought in every player is into their role. No one is trying to do more than they should, and Brad Underwood has guys like Trent Frazier, who is really talented and can do a lot of great stuff offensively, willingly being a third option on the offense. That's so key to having an elite team in March, and it's something I really, really like about the Fighting Illini. It's a good game, but I think the Fighting Illini make it out of the Midwest.
My Pick: Illinois
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