Pittsburgh Season Preview

2022-23 Record: 24-12, 14-6 ACC (3rd)

Coach: Jeff Capel, Sixth Season

Departures: Jamarius Burton, G (Graduation)

Nelly Cummings, G (Graduation)

Greg Elliott, G (Graduation)

Nike Sibande, G (Graduation)

John Hugley, C (Transfer)

Arrivals: Ishmael Leggett, G (Transfer from Rhode Island)

Zach Austin, F (Transfer from High Point)

Jaland Lowe, G (Freshman)

Carlton Carrington, G (Freshman)

Pape Kante, C (Freshman)

Marlon Barnes, W (Freshman)

Projected Starting Lineup

PG: Carlton Carrington

SG: Ishmael Leggett

SF: Zack Austin

PF: Blake Hinson

C: Federiko Federiko

Roster Breakdown

Jeff Capel made his first NCAA Tournament at Pittsburgh last season, and he's looking to keep that momentum going this year, even though he loses a lot from last year's team. Most of the starting backcourt is gone, but Blake Hinson and Federiko Federiko are back in the front after combining for 62 starts last season. Hinson paced the Panthers in points with 15.3 a game in his first year in the program. He has missed the previous two seasons with medical issues, but he looked like he didn't miss a beat. He also added 6 rebounds a game and shot 38% from deep. He's a threat at all three levels offensively and has deep range on his jumper, and he can bully stronger defenders in the paint as well. He's really physically strong as well, which allows him to guard bigger guys defensively, and he's likely to lead the team in scoring again this season. Federiko is a 6'11" center from Finland, and his major impact comes defensively. He's an anchor on the back line of the defense, averaging 1.7 blocks a game to go along with 5.3 rebounds a game. He's currently limited offensively to just being a rim runner and dunker, but Pitt will gladly take that tradeoff for his defensive impact. Also returning in the frontcourt are Guillermo Diaz Graham and Jorge Diaz Graham. The twin brothers are 7' and 6'11" respectively, and offer great size and length to go along with intriguing skill sets. While neither man played significant minutes on the whole last season, they flashed some potential to shoot it well from deep as well as use their size defensively to alter shot. Guillermo was actually forced into the starting lineup for the three NCAA Tournament games Pitt played after an injury to Federiko, and he impressed. Including the game when Federiko went down in the ACC Tournament against Duke, Diaz Graham played 31 minutes a game and averaged 9.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2 blocks, 1.8 assists, and 1 steal. He looked really impressive, and if his brother can play like that as well, Pitt might have some really good frontcourt depth. However, they are both very lean, and to see an increase in minutes, they will need to have added some muscle to their frames. William Jeffress redshirted last season with a foot injury, but he returns this year as well. He started 20 games over his first two years, and while the starts aren't eye popping (3 points and 2.9 rebounds over the two seasons), he is another depth option at both forward spots. There are also two newcomers to the frontcourt with transfer Zack Austin arriving from High Point and freshman Papa Kante. Austin is a similar to player to Hinson, more of a big wing than a traditional big man. Over two seasons with High Point, Austin averaged 14.2 points, 6.7 rebounds, 2.1 blocks, 1.4 assists, and 1.2 steals. He's an active defender who plays bigger than his 6'6" frame would suggest, and he also has good strength that allows him to guard 2-4. Offensively, he's very good in transition and getting downhill, and his jump shot has promise despite only making 32.7% of his career three pointers. Kante was a Michigan commit, but backed out and ended up in Pennsylvania instead. Ranked 106 in the 247 Composite, he's a big, strong center who is probably ready to come in and make an impact on the defensive end immediately. He's got a 7'4" wingspan and attacks the glass, as well as using his length to disrupt shots. Offensively, he's already got a solid post game in addition to being a willing rim runner, but he can settle for jump shots when his stroke isn't quite there yet. If Jeff Capel can get him to buy into doing the dirty work in the paint while the rest of his game develops behind the scenes, he can compete for minutes from the jump. The backcourt, however, has much less depth and far more questions. With almost everyone who played minutes as a guard last year departing, the Panthers will be relying on some new faces. It looked as if Dior Johnson, a former five star recruit, was going to be a factor, but he has been (rightly, imo) kicked out of school on account on his arrest and guilty plea for assault and strangulation. That leaves Rhode Island transfer Ishmael Leggett along with freshmen Jaland Lowe and Carlton Carrington to take over the backcourt. Leggett was in Rhode Island for three years, and he started every game for the Rams over the past two years. He took a big jump last season, putting up 16.4 points a game in addition to 5.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.4 steals a game. He's a crafty scorer inside the arc, and is strong with the ball while attacking the rim. However, there are some concerns. For one, he doesn't shoot it well at all, making just 32% of his threes last year and 31.6% the year before. He also put up his big numbers on a bad Rhode Island team that went 9-22 last year, and some people have speculated that those are something of empty stats. I don't know that I agree 100%, but he's shot under 40% from the floor each of the past two years, and he needed 13 shots a game to get to his scoring numbers last year, and was allowed to play with some more free reign given the state of the team last year. Lowe and Carrington are ranked similarly in the 247 Composite, with Lowe checking in at 82 and Carrington at 118. Carrington has more size of the two, he's 6'4" compared to the 6'1" Lowe, and likely grades out as a better defender because of that size and being a little more physically developed. Lowe's reputation is as a floor general who is comfortable with the ball in his hands and he is good at getting to the rim, although as mentioned, to finish through ACC level bigs, he'll need to add strength. Both guys have been pegged as good not great shooters who can make shots when open, but aren't necessarily someone defenses need to game plan around. Reports out of their summer trip to Spain are that Carrington is getting the first crack at running point this year, but I expect both to split the minutes, and look for them to share the court some as well when Leggett needs a break. Finally, Marlon Barnes is a wing that comes in in the recruiting class. He's got a lot of projectable skills, but he is more of a developmental piece and likely won't see too many minutes, especially by the time ACC plays rolls around. 

My Thoughts

Pitt is in an interesting spot for me this year. They're coming off of an NCAA Tournament appearance for the first time under Jeff Capel, but I think it might be hard to replace a lot of the production that departed the program. There are some reasons for optimism though, specifically in the front court. I actually really like the duo of Blake Hinson and Zack Austin as some bigger wings who can score and defend at a high level. Those two plus the center rotation with Federiko Federiko and the Diaz Graham brothers should lead to the front court being a strength, especially on the defensive end. However, I'm really worried about the backcourt. After Hinson, the next four leading scorers were guards who have all moved on, and the Panthers didn't really bring in any sure things to replace that production. Ishmael Leggett is the only one of the three newcomers who has played in college, and I have some questions about what he'll be able to do in the ACC. He wasn't very efficient at Rhode Island, and he doesn't shoot it well from deep, so that concerns me. Maybe him no longer being the go-to scoring option will increase his efficiency while keeping similar numbers, but I'm somewhat skeptical. And then you have two different freshmen running point for the team, and we have seen freshmen guards struggle with the adjustment to college time and time again. That really worries me, but maybe Carrington and/or Lowe will prove me wrong and be a strong player at the point. But overall, I'm really worried about that backcourt and I think it's going to hold Pitt back from reaching the same heights they did last year, and I'm having a hard time seeing an NCAA Tournament appearance for the Panthers this year.

EDIT: As of 9/7, Papa Kante is now set to miss the season with a knee injury. I didn't have him as a huge contributor in year one, but it definitely hurts the frontcourt depth for Pitt. As mentioned, I was mostly worried about the backcourt with this team. Kante could have played some right away, but with Federiko Federiko and the Diaz Graham brothers returning, I think Pitt will be able to weather the storm. Still, less depth is never good and this could impact the development of Kante, who was a top recruit in the 2023 class. Hope he heals up and is ready to go for 2024-25.