2022-23 Record: 9-23, 7-13 ACC (12th)
Coach: Leonard Hamilton, 22nd Season
Departures: Matthew Cleveland, F (Transfer)
Caleb Mills, G (Transfer)
Naheem McLeod, C (Transfer)
Jeremiah Bembry, G (Transfer)
Arrivals: Primo Spears, G (Transfer from Georgetown)
Josh Nickelberry, G (Transfer from La Salle)
Jamir Watkins, F (Transfer from VCU)
Taylor Bowen, F (Freshma)
Projected Starting Lineup
PG: Jalen Warley
SG: Darin Green
SF: Cam'Ron Fletcher
PF: Jamir Watkins
C: Baba Miller
Roster Breakdown
Last year was certainly a disappointment for the Seminoles, as they really struggled with injuries early on, and lost their most games of the Leonard Hamilton era. Two of their top 3 leading scorers have transferred out, and a lot of the returners are young, so this season should be very interesting in Tallahassee. The leading returner is guard Darin Green. He put up 13.4 points a game while starting all 32 games from the Noles, while also being the best shooter on the team, knocking down 36.4% of his threes. Also returning in the backcourt is Jalen Warley, a bigger guard with great athleticism who is just as comfortable throwing lobs as he is receiving them. He's also a great defender, putting up 1.3 steals a game last year, and he could be in line for a bit of a breakout year as a junior after putting up 6.8 points and 3.3 assists a game last year. The same could have been said for sophomore Chandler Jackson, who dealt with injuries early in the season but put together a nice close to the season. However, he was suspended indefinitely in July, so who knows what the future holds for him. Two transfers will join the backcourt this year: Primo Spears from Georgetown and Josh Nickelberry from La Salle. Nickelberry is much more of a known quantity. He may be familiar to ACC fans from his two seasons at Louisville prior to playing for the Explorers, but he really broke out in Philly, winning A-10 Sixth Man of the Year last season. He's going to be a reliable shooter of the bench, having made 40.1% of his threes last season, and should allow Green some more rest after he played 34 minutes a game in 2022-23. Spears, meanwhile, is a bit more of a wild card. He joins after playing one year at Georgetown and one year at Duquesne prior to that, and he's scored at both spots, putting up 12.7 PPG as a freshman and 16 last year while also adding 5 asissts and 1.1 steals. However, neither one of those teams were any good, and he had the ball in his hands cosntantly. As such, his efficiency isn't where you want, as he needed 14.8 shots last year to get to those numbers. He's also more effective inside the arc and around the rim, and shot just 30% from deep each of the past two years. His eligibility is also a concern since as a two time transfer, he will need a waiver to play, and the status of a lot of these waivers is currently up in the air. Also up in the air is the status of Cam'Ron Fletcher as he recovers from a knee injury that cost him most of the 2022-23 season. Fletcher was off to a great start, averaging 10.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 1.3 steals over the first 10 games of the year before getting injured. A former Kentucky transfer, Fletcher is an excellent athlete and thrives in transition, and saw his three point percentage increase upon arriving at Florida State, although he's more respectable from deep than a knockdown shooter. Recent reports are that he will be cleared and ready for the beginning of the season, but only time will tell. Also on the wing is Tom House, a sophomore who came in with a reputation as a strong shooter, but didn't show that in limited minutes last year. In the frontcourt, the Noles have an intriguing group of emerging talents. Baba Miller and Cameron Corhen are both rising sophomores showing promise across their young careers. Corhen appeared in every game last season and played over 20 minutes a contest, putting up 8.3 points and 3.5 rebounds a game. He's a good finisher around the rim and has some skill with the ball in his hands as well, but probably needs to add some bulk to reach his full potential. Meanwhile, Miller is a stretch big in the truest sense of the word. Despite standing 6'11", Miller is very comfortable playing on the perimeter, which he showed while played for Spain at the FIBA u-19 World Cup this offseason. He missed time last year with injuries and a suspension, but he oozes potential thanks to his size and skill. Jaylan Gainey missed all of last season with an injury, but the Brown transfer has a reputation as a prolific shot blocker, sending back 2.1 shots a game over his final two seasons at Brown. He could provide some needed rim protection. Finally, De'Ante Green returns, and after only playing a smaller role last year, when he was supposed to redshirt but got forced into action due to the glut of injuries, but he was a top 150 recruit out of high school and if he spent the offseason developing, could also find a role on this team. The Seminoles also add two new pieces in the frontcourt with Jamir Watkins, a transfer from VCU, and freshman Taylor Bowen, who ranks 73 in the 247 Composite Rankings. In his two seasons with the Rams, Watkins established himself as a strong defender, putting up 1 steal and 0.5 blocks a game. His offense game is mostly based on cutting to the rim or driving, but he did up his three point percentage to 34% last season, and as long as he isn't a total zero on the offensive end, his defense should bring value. Bowen, meanwhile, is like many of the other Seminoles in recent memory: a great athlete who thrives in transition and can bring a lot of value defensively with his length. His offensive game is still developing, but he could find the floor right away thanks to his natural gifts.
My Thoughts
Florida State is a major question mark in my eyes. I can see one version of this team that looks really good. Jalen Warley takes another step, Darin Green and Josh Nickelberry are deadeyes from deep, Cam'ron Fletcher is fully healthy and balling again, Cam Corhen uses his experience last year and is an impact big, Primo Spears provides a scoring punch off the bench, Baba Miller unlocks his full potential, and Jamir Watkins, Jaylen Gainey, and Taylor Bowen anchor a strong defense. Or, this team could be a disaster again. There's not a lot of shooting outside of Green and Nickelberry, Spears either isn't eligible or remains inefficient, Fletcher doesn't fully rehab, Corhen and Miller don't add muscle and struggle against more physical bigs, Watkins game doesn't translate up a level, and it's another down year in Tallahassee. I tend to lean more towards the former, actually. I'm pretty high on guys like Warley and Corhen taking another step in their development and proving they are good ACC level starters. I also really like the addition of Watkins, especially defensively, and think he fits in perfectly with what the best Florida State teams have been recently. The length and athleticism on the roster should shine defensively and in transition, but in the half court, they will need another shooter to emerge. I think they can probably get just enough from deep to make teams respect them on the whole from beyond the arc and not pack the paint. The biggest X-factor here for me is Primo Spears. I think he's either not eligible, an electric sixth man scorer, or an inefficient, borderline unplayable mess. That Georgetown team was bad last year and just let him do whatever he wanted. I'm interested to see how he looks on what should be a competent team. One other thing to monitor: Leonard Hamilton. He's been at Florida State for 22 seasons now, and has been a head coach for 37. He's 75 years old, and if this season starts similar to last, I wonder how much he has in the tank, and if retirement could be on the table. This is pure speculation on my part, and he's given no indications that he's ready to hang it up, but it could be a storyline at some point.
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