North Carolina State Season Preview

2022-23 Record: 23-11, 12-8 ACC (6th)

Coach: Kevin Keatts, Seventh Season

Departures: Terquavion Smith, G (Draft)

Jarkel Joiner, G (Graduation)

Jack Clark, F (Transfer)

Greg Gantt, F (Transfer)

Ebenezer Dowuona, C (Transfer)

Dusan Mahoric, F (Transfer)

Arrivals: Michael O'Conner, G (Transfer from Stanford)

Jayden Taylor, G (Transfer from Butler)

DJ Horne, G (Transfer from Arizona State)
Kam Woods, G (Transfer from North Carolina A&T)

MJ Rice, W (Transfer from Kansas)

Ben Middlebrooks, F (Transfer from Clemson)

Mohamed Diarra, C (Transfer from Missouri)

Dennis Parker Jr, F (Freshman)

Projected Starting Lineup

PG: DJ Horne

SG: Jayden Taylor

SF: Casey Morsell

PF: MJ Rice

C: DJ Burns

Roster Breakdown

One staple of the Kevin Keatts era at North Carolina State has been hitting the transfer portal for talent, and none of that changes this season. In fact, the top seven or eight guys in the rotation could all be transfers. There's a strong transfer class this year, but Casey Morsell and DJ Burns transferred in previously and they are returning this year. Both are in their fifth year of playing college basketball, and have played and started games for Keatts. Morsell is entering his third year in Raleigh after transferring from Virginia, and he has thrived outside of the shackles of Tony Bennett's offense. He put up 11.8 points a game last season while shooting 41.1% from three, and he's an active defender, getting over a steal per game each of the past two seasons. I'd expect him to be a consistent starter on the wing this year. Burns, meanwhile, didn't play in his freshman year at Tennessee before transferring to Winthrop, where he played 3 seasons and dominated the Big South. He is a certified Big Boy, standing at 6'9" and 260 pounds, and he's a load on the interior. He put up 12.5 points and 4.8 rebounds last year for the Wolfpack, and when he gets the ball in the low post, he is hard to stop. In addition to those two returners, Keatts added a littany of new transfers to the team this season. With high scoring guards Terquavion Smith and Jarkel Joiner, both averaged over 17 points a game last season, moving on, all eyes will be on DJ Horne, Jayden Taylor, and Michael O'Connell to fill that void. Horne will be on his third school after stops at Illinois State and Arizona State, but this is something of a homecoming as he went to high school in North Carolina. Over two years under Bobby Hurley, Horne averaged 12.5 points, 3.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, and shot 35.7% from deep. When he is on, he is ON. He is a scorer first and foremost, and he can shoot you into a game with his jumper. Plus, he's coming from a system where Bobby Hurley let his guards play, and Keatts will do the same. Jayden Taylor comes over from Butler, where he started 42 of 65 games over two seasons. He took a jump as a sophomore, increasing almost all of his stats, and putting up 12.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.3 steals a game last season. He's a really strong driver, but his jump shot still needs some work, making only 32.6% of his threes last season and 29.4% the year before. Lastly, O'Connell isn't the same level of scorer as the previous two guards, but he is most of a true point guard.He started 76 games across 3 seasons at Stanford, and averaged 6.3 points, 3.2 assists, 2.7 rebounds, and 1 steal a game. He's a rock solid ball handler and looks to pass before hunting his own shot, plus operates well out of screens. Like Taylor, his jump shot isn't his greatest asset, making just 30.1% of his threes, but he was often operating with the ball in his hands. I could definitely see his efficiency increasing this season if he gets some more spot up opportunities while Taylor and Horne take on the shot creation. I'm very interested to see what MJ Rice can do after transferring over from Kansas. He was a McDonald's All-American and the 32nd ranked recruit in the class of 2022, but struggled to find the floor for the Jayhawks, playing just 7.6 minutes a game and averaging 2.2 points and 1 rebounds a game. He's a great athlete on the wing and has the strength to guard up as well, which could unlock some really fun small ball lineups for the Pack. He's currently best as a slasher and driver, but he definitely has the potential to shoot it well from deep as well. He could be in line for a major breakout season. Up front, Mohamed Diarra joins from Missouri while Ben Middlebrooks comes over from Clemson. Diarra played two years at junior college before joining Mizzou, and he played in 25 games, starting 6. He averaged 3.2 points and 3.3 rebounds a game over 11.7 minutes a game. I see him as a strong backup big man who can provide some solid defense and rebounding skills. Middlebrooks is a rising junior, although he reclassified to join Clemson a year early out of high school. He has some more face up ability to his game, but is still at his best operating in and around the paint at this point in his career. He put up 3.1 points and 2.7 rebounds over 11.3 minutes a game last year, and I would expect him and Diarra to split the backup center minutes, at least in the early going. Breon Pass and LJ Thomas will both provide backcourt depth. Both guys were ranked similarly as point guard recruits out of high school, between 150 and 200 nationally, and both played in 30 games last year. Thomas probably has a slight edge over Pass at this point despite being one year younger, but I personally wouldn't expect much out of either guy this year given the amount of players ahead of them in the backcourt pecking order. Ernest Ross and Dennis Parker Jr round out the roster. Ross was the 72 recruit in the 2021 class, and has been a role player in each of his first two seasons. He averaged 11.4 minutes a game and put up 3.5 points and 2.5 rebounds in those minutes. He's more athletic gifts and size than skills at this point, but he should get backup minutes at the four spot, although he may face a challenge from incoming freshman Dennis Parker Jr. He was ranked 125 nationally, and he's also a great athlete. He can play both the 3 and the 4, and has the body to be an impact defender. His offensive game needs more development, specifically the jump shot, and he needs to add weight, but he could be a factor as well.

My Thoughts

I feel as if I have North Carolina State pegged completely heading into the year. I think a lot of their success, or lack thereof, will depend on a few factors. The first will be three point shooting, which I am slightly worried about. They really need one of Jayden Taylor, Michael O'Connell, or MJ Rice to become a consistent threat from deep to truly reach their potential, in my opinion. Morsell and Horne will knock down threes, that I'm not worried about. I do question whether those other three guys will be consistent enough from beyond the arc to make teams at least respect them from deep. If not, I think you'll see a lot of clogged lane and a lot of double teams on DJ Burns when he receives it down low. Burns is a willing passer in those situations, but if the guy they double off of can't make the defense pay, it will quickly become a strategy that's copied from other teams. I think all three of the guys I mentioned have the potential to be 35% or better shooters from three, but I need to see it first to believe it. I definitely believe that Taylor will get hot from behind the arc for some games, and North Carolina State will be a handful when that happens, but when he isn't, I think the offense could become a little stale in the halfcourt, which brings me to my second point. I think this roster is set up really well for Kevin Keatts to be able to go back to his roots and run some pressing schemes defensively. MJ Rice is a good small ball four thanks to his strength and rebounding, and Taylor and Morsell are also good defenders and athletes to make that sort of system work. That would lead to some more easy buckets in transition and let guys like Taylor and Rice, plus bench pieces like LJ Thomas, Ernest Ross, and Dennis Parker, thrive. My one worry here is actually DJ Burns. He just doesn't have the foot speed to be the anchor to a press at the back end, and I worry he would actually be a liability if we do see pressing. I think Mohamed Diarra fits the back end much better, and I'll be interested to see how Keatts handles the big man if he does decide to implement some full court action. Ultimately, I think the results probably end up where they have throughout Keatts' tenure in Raleigh: good, not great, probably around the bubble come March, but the team is wildly inconsistent from game to game in terms of offensive output, especially from three.