North Carolina Season Preview

2022-23 Record: 20-13, 11-9 ACC (7th)

Coach: Hubert Davis, 3rd Season

Departures: Caleb Love, G (Transfer)

Pete Nance, F (Graduation)
Leaky Black, W (Graduation)

Puff Johnson, W (Transfer)

D'Marco Dunn, W (Transfer)

Tyler Nickel, F (Transfer)

Dontrez Styles, F (Transfer)

Justin McCoy, F (Transfer)

Arrivals: Cormac Ryan, G (Transfer from Notre Dame)

Paxton Wojcik, G (Transfer from Brown)

Jae'lyn Withers, F (Transfer from Louisville)

Harrison Ingram, F (Transfer from Stanford)

James Okonkwo, C (Transfer from West Virginia)

Elliot Cadeau, G (Freshman)

Zayden High, F (Freshman)

Projected Starting Lineup

PG: Elliot Cadeau

SG: RJ Davis

SF: Cormac Ryan

PF: Harrison Ingram

C: Armando Bacot

Roster Breakdown

Coming off of a national title appearance in 2021-22, things were looking up for the Tar Heels. Hubert Davis looked like the natural successor to Roy Williams, a lot of key players, they brought in some transfers and highly rated freshmen, and were ranked #1 in the preseason. One year later, and there's a distinctly different tone in Chapel Hill. 2022-23 was a flat out disaster. UNC missed the tournament completely and Hubert Davis enters this year on the hot seat. Caleb Love was the team's leading scorer last year, but was wildly inefficient, and has transferred to Arizona. RJ Davis was the second leading scorer, and he'll become more of the go-to guy on the perimeter for the Tar Heels this year. He's entering his fourth year at North Carolina, and has gotten better every season, culminating in scoring 16.1 points, grabbing 5.1 rebounds, dishing out 3.2 assists, and getting 1.1 steals per game last year. He's lightning quick with the ball in his hands, and also a dangerous shooter, knocking down 36.2% of his shots from deep and shoots it with range. He'll likely have the ball in his hands even more, and I like his ability to create shots for himself and his teammates. Speaking of, Armando Bacot is back for a fifth season, and he's started 131 games over the past four seasons. The big man is quite simply one of the best rebounders in the nation, averaging 10.1 boards per game over his career, including 13.1 when they won the title. He's also a great finisher around the rim and has developed his post game nicely, and he scored 15.9 points a game last year. He's been a model of consistency recently, with 3 selections to All-ACC teams, and he'll likely average a double double for the third straight year. Sophomores Seth Trimble and Jalen Washington are the only other returners, and they'll be looking to increase their roles. Trimble averaged 9.8 minutes a game last year, but struggled to make an impact offensively. He only put up 1.8 points a game, which was a disappointment given his recruiting pedigree as a top 50 prospect in the class of 2022. However, he's a great athlete and was able to contribute defensively, and he'll have to buy in on that end of the court again this year to earn his minutes.He clearly struggled with confidence offensively, and shot it very poorly, but all reports out of high school very positive on his offensive ability and shooting, so an offseason to get right on that end could lead to a breakout this year. Meanwhile, Washington struggled with injuries in high school, including an ACL tear his senior year. However, he was still ranked 55 in the 247 Composite coming out of high school, and he played in 20 games as a freshman, averaging just 5.7 minutes a game. He did put up 2.2 points and 1.4 rebounds in those minutes though, and he has a tantalizing skill set with his face up ability and a nice shooting touch that stretches beyond the arc. He can certainly play next to Bacot or man the center spot himself, he stands 6'10", but he'll need to stay healthy and prove he can handle more minutes on the court. The competition for boths guys will be fierce, as Hubert Davis has added a lot of new faces. It'd be lazy analysis to say that Cormac Ryan and Paxton Wojcik are similar players who will fill a similar role for the Tar Heels this year. It will also be correct analysis. They are both wings who are similar heights (Ryan is 6'5", Wojcik is 6'4") who have played at two other school prior to UNC, and are best known as strong shooters. The major difference is that Ryan has played at two high majors, playing at Stanford and Notre Dame, while Wojcik was at Loyola-Chicago and Brown. Ryan has career averages of 10.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.1 steals, and shooting 35.2% from deep. He's a proven floor spacer at the ACC level and is likely in line to start. Wojcik, meanwhile, took a step forward last year, dropping 14.9 points to go along with 7.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, and 1.3 steals per game, all while shooting 38% from deep. I wouldn't expect those numbers again, but he looks like a strong bench piece who can come in and knock down shots from behind the arc. Harrison Ingram enters from Stanford, and the former five star recruit is looking to revitalize his career after two seasons in northern California. He put up 10.5 points a game over his two seasons at Stanford to go along with 6,.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists, but he never quite lived up to his potential. He was looked to as The Guy for the Cardinals, and I'm just not sure that's his best role. However, he is very talented. He has great ball skills for a forward and is a willing passer, plus he does good work on the glass. However, the jumper just hasn't been there, shooting 31.6% from deep, which has held him back from being even better. Jae'lyn Withers comes over from Louisville, so he has ACC experience, and put up some numbers last year. He averaged 8.9 points and 5.3 rebounds while shooting 41.7% from three, and in 2021-22, his freshman year, he averaged 10 points and 7.7 rebounds. He's also a good athlete with a lot of bounce, but the issue for him has been consistently putting everything together. Too often he's a passenger in games, so he'll have to show his A game more often than not if he expects to play this season. With Washington, Ingram, and Withers being more forwards than centers, Davis also brought in West Virginia transfer James Okonkwo after Bob Huggins was fired to be a true backup to Bacot. He's a 20 year old junior from Great Britain, and is still a little raw. He doesn't have a lot of finesse to his game, but what he does, he does well. He grabbed 3.2 rebounds per game over 11 minutes last season, and blocked 0.7 shots. He finishes put backs and dump offs, often via dunk, and other than that, doesn't contribute too much. Still, he knows his role and plays it, and has some potential to improve as well, since he didn't play at a high level until he was 16. The other major addition is 5 star point guard Elliot Cadeau, who reclassified up a year to play for the Tar Heels. Ranked eleventh nationally in the 247 Composite, Cadeau is a traditional point guard. He's a pass first type of player, and what stands out when watching him is his speed with the ball and his vision. He averaged over 10 assists a game in EYBL play this summer,  and he's dynamic in the open court. The jump shot is still developing, but he has a chance to be a day 1 starter for Hubert Davis. Zayden High rounds out the roster, and he's ranked 70th nationally. However, he's more of a developmental prospect, and likely won't see major minutes out of the gate. He's a good athlete with a decent jump shot, but there's a lot of forwards he'll need to beat out for playing time, and he's still filling out his 6'9" frame.

My Thoughts

There may not be a team I'm more fascinated to watch this coming season than North Carolina. They have had high highs and low lows under Hubert Davis, and I'm so curious to see where they end up this year. On paper, I like this team more than last years. I'm not sure if it's more talented, but I think the pieces fit together better. Caleb Love was a black hole offensively, he shot 37.8% from the field!, and I think him moving on is best for both parties. I like RJ Davis a lot on the perimeter, and it's hard to find a better one-two punch than him and Bacot. And I really like what Davis has done, taking his core and figuring out the best role players to surround them with. Ryan and Wojcik are going to space the floor to open up the lane for the two stars. Caeadu is a pass first guard, and will absolutely defer to the elder statesmen on the roster. Harrison Ingram feels like a perfect glue guy, someone who will score about 10 a game as the third option, can hit the glass, will be a good ball mover offensively, and has some ball skills. Trimble is the first guard off the bench and will give you defense. Washington and Withers both have some stretch big potential, which will give Bacot even more room to operate down low. And Okonkwo brings a backup big with rim protection. It's a well constructed roster in my opinion, and I think it can produce some better results. I do have a couple of questions still though. The first comes on the defensive end. Cadeau and Davis are 6'1" and 6'2" respectively, which isn't ideal for a starting backcourt, and I don't think anyone will confuse Ryan or Wojcik with Matisse Thybulle on the wing. I do really like Trimble on that end, and I think they'll rebound really well, but I do think perimeter defense could be lacking. I also think Cadeau on the whole is a bigger question mark than you may think at first glance. Not only could the defense be a worry, but we often see reclass freshmen, especially point guards, struggle with the jump to college. Inconsistency could definitely plague him throughout the year as he gets adjusted. Ideally for North Carolina, his season looks like Tyrese Proctor for Duke last year, where he finds his footing by conference play and really impresses. I am also interested with his fit next to Davis on the offensive end. They both are at their best with the ball in their hands, so I'm curious to see how much they play together and how those minutes look on both sides of the ball. Finally, and this is more of a vibes thing than anything concrete, but almost everyone on the roster wasn't in a great situation last year. North Carolina disappointed, Withers comes in from a historically bad Louisville team, Notre Dame collapsed down the stretch, Stanford was the definition of mid, and Brown is an Ivy League team. I don't know if it means anything, but I will be interested to see how this team responds to the inevitable adversity they will face, especially with a coach on the hot seat that can't afford to miss the tournament this year. This will be a team to watch because I can see their season going a few different ways, although I lean towards a tournament berth and top 5 ACC finish.