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The Fast Break 12/4/18

As I mentioned in my Status Update post, I was going to change up the way I reviewed games. Instead of giving a large breakdown of every game I watched, I'm just going to give my thoughts on different things. It's a lot easier and more fun for me this way, and I hope everyone reading appreciates it as well.

What I Saw
- To borrow a phrase from Jon Rothstein: There's so much Marvin Bagley in Tyler Cook. The Iowa junior has been great this year, averaging 15.4 points and 8.1 rebounds a game this year. And while watching his 19 point, 15 rebound performance against Wisconsin, I was reminded a lot of Duke's star player last year. Now, I'm not saying Cook is as good as Bagley because he isn't. However, I think he can provide a similar impact. They are both athletic power forwards that like to attack the basket from the perimeter and are skilled finishers and rebounders. He's not going to put up Bagley's numbers, but I think he can be an All Big Ten level performer for Iowa while putting up regular double doubles. 
EDIT: I wrote this before the Michigan State game, and I stand by it. The Spartans are one of the few teams that have the bigs to hang with Cook, and that's what separates him from Bagley, he will struggle against elite competition. He still but up 15 and 8, but was neutralized for most of the game while Michigan State built their lead.

- The Badgers have been so much better this season, especially on the offensive end, and it's fairly easy to see why. D'Mitrik Trice has become a much more important scorer and part of the offense. He's tied for the team lead in scoring with Ethan Happ at 17.4 points a game, and he's knocking down 58.3% of his shots from deep through 8 games. He's providing floor spacing that allows Happ the space he needs to operate as well as coming up clutch at the end of games. He hit big shots to guide Wisconsin to wins against both North Carolina State and Iowa, scoring 18 and 20 in those two games respectively. He's given the offense a different dimension with his ability to score from deep and it's been huge for the Badgers so far.

- Radford has had an excellent start to the year. They've knocked off Notre Dame and Texas, and although they have a loss to Duquense, those two victories have caused many to discuss them as an at-large team. Now at the moment, I think that's crazy, they clearly aren't at that level. However, they have a few more opportunities for very good wins. They end their non-conference schedule with games at Clemson, at UNC Greensboro, then they come home for Georgia Souther before traveling to Maryland for their last game of 2018. If they were to go say 3-1 over that stretch with the loss coming  on the road, and then they came out of Big South play with 1 regular season loss, preferably to Winthrop, who is the only other team in the conference in the top 200 per KenPom, would that be enough to get them into March as an at-large? I'm no bracketologist, so I won't try to predict that, and obviously we'd need to see the other resumes, but that seems pretty convincing to me.

- After watching Minnesota play against Oklahoma State, I left pretty convinced that OK State is much better than I thought they would be. That loss to Charlotte on opening day is ugly, but they beat Memphis and LSU, both pretty impressive wins, especially coming on neutral courts. They play a high octane style that I love to watch, and they've got some really talented players as well. They have 6 players averaging over 8 points a game, and Cameron McGriff and Lindy Waters are both excellent scorers. I love the look they give with McGriff at the five alongside Waters, Michael Weathers, Isaac Likekele, and either Mike Cunningham or Thomas Dziagwa. They are electric in transition, and I really love Likekele as a point guard. His distribution skills are great, especially for a freshman and at 6'4", he can impact the game on the defensive end as well. They still have games remaining against Houston and Nebraska in the non-conference schedule, and wins would go a long way towards a tournament berth.

- The Buffalo Bulls have been one of the more surprising teams of the early season. They currently sit at 7-0 with a wins over West Virginia in Morgantown and the previously unbeaten San Francisco in Belfast, Northern Ireland. I've been super impressed with them on the offensive end. Thus far, Jeremy Harris has struggled to get going on a consistent basis, and highly touted freshman Jonathan Williams is struggled to adjust to the college game, and yet Buffalo is still one of the best offenses in college basketball. They'll occasionally fall in love with the three, especially Harris, but  CJ Massinburg and Nick Perkins are very dangerous, and they've been getting good contributions from Jayvon Graves, Davonta Jordan, and Montell McRae. I've been super impressed with McRae, who has taken on a much bigger role as a sophomore. He's starting and averaging 7.6 points and 3.3 rebounds on 70.8% shooting despite playing just 14.6 minutes a game. He's always shown an impressive stroke from deep, and I think he's a very underrated piece of what makes this team so good.

- I don't think Georgia Tech is all that good. I'm not a big fan of Jose Alvarado, and despite a pretty good defense, they've lost 3 games already this year. However, one standout from their loss to St. John's was James Banks. Banks transferred from Texas and was granted immediate eligibility late in the offseason. He's taken a little bit of time to get going, but he's averaged 30 minutes over his last 3 games, and in that time he's been very good. On the year, he's averaging 7.2 points, 9 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game, but in his last two contests, against Northwestern and the Johnnies, he scored 12 and 14 points respectively while getting 8 rebounds in each game. He's already fitting right in with the Yellow Jacket's defense, dominating the glass and blocking 10.9% of shots, and he seems to be coming along offensively. I think he should be getting more looks if Georgia Tech wants to be more successful this season.

- Speaking of St. John's, they really came alive down the stretch against Georgia Tech. At the under 12 timeout, they trailed by 12. They would go on to win by 3, outscoring their opponents 32-17 from that point on. A huge part of that rally was Sharmorie Ponds, who scored 20 of his 37 points from that point on. Not only did he score, he was active on the defensive end, getting 5 rebounds and 3 steals. He's such a talented scorer, and he's what makes this offense click. He creates a lot of the offense for the Red Storm and the focus defenses pay to him leads to his teammates getting good looks. He's certainly one of the best players in the country and the biggest reasons this team is undefeated and in my Top 25.

- The game against Seton Hall and Louisville was one that very easily could end up being insignificant come Selection Sunday. However, I was really impressed by both these teams. Louisville came away with the win, and I really liked what I saw from Dwayne Sutton. He's a very physical presence who gets to the rim and can finish. I also like Jordan Nwora can become a go-to scorer despite a tough game in this one. As for the Hall, obviously Myles Powell is a standout, as he dropped 23 points. But I was also impressed with the front court of Michael Nzei and Sandro Mamukelashvili. They shared the ball well between them, and combined for 22 points. I think both these teams will be in the tournament conversation all year.

- UNC Greensboro is absolutely a team no one wants to be facing in March. They have all the pieces to knock off a high seed, including a star player (Francis Alonso, scored 22 points including 5 made 3s) good role players (James Dickey, the SoCon Defensive Player of the Year last season, Demetrius Troy, the solid point guard presence, Eric Hamilton, a Wichita State transfer), a good coach who highlights his team's strengths (Wes Miller, runs offense for Alonso and runs a full court press), and three point shooting. They should be the favorites in the Southern, sorry Furman but I like the Spartans more, and they are a nightmare matchups, playing close games with Kentucky and LSU.

- Speaking of the Wildcats, I need to talk about two freshmen on this team. One is Keldon Johnson, who, hot take alert, I think is a better player and prospect than Nassir Little given what I've seen thus far. He's leading Kentucky in scoring with 16 points a game, and he's probably the best perimeter defender on the team. I also need to talk about EJ Montgomery. Every time I watch this team, I feel like Mugatu from Zoolander. Am I the only one who sees how good this kid is? Every time I've watched Kentucky, he's been great. In 15 minutes, which is comically low given how skilled he is, he had 8 points and 5 rebounds. I'm personally not a huge fan of the PJ Washington and Reid Travis lineups, I don't think they are athletic enough or have enough floor spacing, and while it works against mid-majors, I think they'll get exposed against SEC teams. Maybe then Calipari will turn to one of the top freshmen in the nation.

- So Creighton came out kinda hot in this one. They shot 41.2% from three on the game, including making 9 threes in the first half en route to 48 points. Not a bad start against the number 1 team in the country. TyShon Alexander, who has always been a personal favorite of mine, has definitely improved as a shooter, making 5 shots from deep. He's been great this year, and I think he and the rest of this team were very underrated in the preseason rankings of the Big East, and I believe they've got a good enough offense to make an appearance in March.

- Holy crap is Gonzaga good. When Killian Tillie, one of the most versatile weapons in college basketball, can go down in the preseason and the team doesn't miss a beat, you know things are good. Rui Hachimura has been grabbing a lot of headlines for his play, and rightfully so, but I've been more impressed with his front court partner Brandon Clarke. He had 27 points and 10 rebounds in this one, and made an incredible layup. After transferring from San Jose State, he was thrown directly into the fire when Tillie got injured, and he's stepped up. He's super athletic, and he's contributing 17.3 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 3.9 blocks a game so far for the Zags. Those are incredible numbers, and honestly I've been more impressed by him than I have been by Rui. Also, I would like to make it known that this blog is going to double as a Zach Norvell fan page whenever Gonzaga plays. He's one of the best scorers in college basketball, and I love watching him play.

- Memphis started out so well for one big reason: they were getting out into transition. This worked really well for two reasons. First, they avoided having to play against the tough Texas Tech defense (more on that in a second) and it allows the Tigers to do what they excel at, attack the basket. They've got a lot of talented athletes who are excellent around the rim. Unfortunately, most of them can't shoot from deep. In fact, only one player made a three for Memphis, freshman point guard Tyler Harris. He has been very good to start the year for Penny Hardaway. He's only 5'9", but he's very quick and a good scorer at all three levels. He led the team with 17 against the Red Raiders, and is tied for the lead in scoring with 14.3 a game. He's been the star of the freshman class so far this year, and he'll be fun to watch alongside James Wiseman and company next year.

- Chris Beard may be the best coach in America that most casual fans haven't heard of. He's been brilliant at Tech, making them a consistent threat in the Big 12, which isn't easy. After losing star Keenan Evans and lottery pick Zaire Smith last year, alongside others, I was worried about the Red Raiders this season. However, they've started 7-0 and are probably the biggest threat to Kansas this season. A lot of that is due to Jarrett Culver emerging as a star. He's one of my favorite players, and someone I had on my Big 12 Second Team, which I'm recognizing now is far too low. He's so long and athletic, and has basically been playing point guard for Texas Tech this year. He scored 20 against the Tigers, one more than his season average of 19, and he's also averaging 5.3 rebounds and 4.6 assists. The kid is a star and he's going to be a problem for every team he plays.

- I mentioned that Texas Tech is the biggest challenger to Kansas, and that's because Kansas State has been a disappointment this year. The Wildcats simply haven't been as good as I thought they would be on the offensive end. Dean Wade and Barry Brown are doing what they are expected to, as is Xavier Sneed, but I really thought Cartier Diarra was going to establish himself as the starting point guard on the roster and be a breakout player, but it just hasn't happened yet. If he can do what I think he can, then I'll be a little more bullish on Kansas State, but as of now, they leave a lot to be desired.

- Marquette has one of the best offensive weapons in the country in Markus Howard. I think everyone knows by now that he scored 45 against Kansas State, a typically stout defensive squad, but he really is great on offense. Not only can he create for other, averaging nearly 5 assists a game, and he's a knockdown shooter, shooting 37% from three so far, which is down from last year and I expect that number to rise, but what he may do better than any other player in the nation is get to the foul line.He went 19-21 from the line against Kansas State, which is being vastly overlooked when people talk about the game he had. He is taking 6.1 free throws a game, and he shoots 89.8% once he gets there. He forced Barry Brown into foul trouble, which allowed to go off late in the first half. His game is incredible and he'll have some more games with similar point totals.

- I think Michigan might be the best team in the country. I have them second right now in my Top 25, but I seriously considered putting them at 1. The first 10 minutes against Purdue was about as close to perfect basketball as you can get. They were getting open looks and making all of them, getting stops defensively, and doing all the little things you want a basketball team to do. The fact that they slowed down after that and still won by 19 should tell you everything you need to know about how good the Wolverines are. They have a Virginia-level elite defense, it's currently #1 on KenPom, and when Jordan Poole, Charles Matthews, and Ignas Bradzeikis and making shots, they are near unstoppable. Outside of early in the North Carolina game, they haven't been that close in a game yet, and I honestly think they could flirt with an undefeated season. Bold take I know, especially given they play in one of the best conferences in college basketball, but they've just been that good so far. And the fact that they are dominating really good teams makes me think it may not be so crazy.

- Saint Louis really impressed me on the defensive end against Butler. They held the Bulldogs to 28.1% shooting from the field, and a large part of that was Javon Bess on Kamar Baldwin. Bess is the best player on both ends of the floor for the Billikens, finishing with 18 points, 7 rebounds, and 3 assists against Butler, but his work defensively was impressive. Baldwin is one of the top scorers in the Big East, and the country for that matter, and he was held to 6 points on 3-17 shooting while committing 5 turnovers. This was a big win for Saint Louis, as they'll want to have a good resume to have an at-large chance given the difficulty of the A-10 Tournament. I think they're the best team in the conference, but it's always tricky to predict, especially in a down year like this one. Games against Oregon State, Houston, and Florida State represent great chances for SLU to create a convincing tournament resume and be able to withstand a surprising loss in conference play.

- I really love watching Nevada play. They basically exemplify positionlesss basketball, with their entire starting lineup being 6'7" or taller, and yet they are all able to guard on the perimeter and in the post. It's a thing of beauty, and they are probably the second best team in the open court only behind Duke. Cody Martin has really emerged as someone who is vital to this team, as he's playing point guard this season and doing a great job. He has 8 points and 7 assists against USC, and he's always putting his teammates in a position to score. I've also loved what I've seen from Tre'Shawn Thurman this year. Against the Trojans, he had 14 points and 9 rebounds, and made 2 threes, which wasn't considered to be a strength of his coming in. He's fit perfectly into the starting lineup, and been great for Eric Musselmann, but I feel he doesn't get enough publicity.

- Let me get this out of the way: Lagerald Vick has shocked me with his improvement this year. I did not see him being the go-to scorer on this Kansas team, especially after being very streaky last season. But he hit a huge shot against Stanford, and finished with 27 points, bumping his season average up to 20.8. But this team shouldn't need to be bailed out in the final seconds against Stanford. And I don't want to take anything away from Stanford, they played great and have a lot of very good players, although they are probably a year away from contending in the Pac-12. But the Jayhawks haven't exactly looked great ever since they beat Michigan State. A major reason why has ben Quentin Grimes playing really poorly. He's only scoring 7.8 points a game, and he's seen his minutes continue to go down as his play continues to be poor. He only has 2 points against Stanford, and went 0-3 from deep. He hasn't made a three since the game against Louisiana, and he hasn't scored in double digits since getting 10 points against Vermont. He'll need to turn things around for Kansas to hit their ceiling this year.

- The AAC is generally thought of as being poor, but I see a very competitive conference this year. Memphis hasn't looked bad despite being 3-4, UConn has been much improved under Dan Hurley, UCF looks like they compete despite a recent loss to Missouri, Temple has been pretty good, and Cincinnati looks great. But the best team has been Houston, who are undefeated and fresh off a win over Oregon. A big question for the Cougars was how they would replace Rob Gray, who was just excellent last season, and they've done so with players stepping up. Corey Davis and Armoni Brooks have gone from solid complimentary pieces to 1a and 1b for the Cougs. Davis is playing on the ball more, scoring 18.7 points a game and dishing out 4.2 assists, while Brooks has done things in a different way, scoring 15.3 points a game, including 22 against Oregon, while also getting 6.3 rebounds a game, 9 vs Oregon, and he's shooting 46.9% from deep, and made 6 threes against the Ducks. They should be considered the favorites as of now, and could very well be in contention for an at-large bid with good results against Oklahoma State, LSU, Saint Louis, and Utah State.

- Dan Hurley has done such a great job with UConn this year. Admittedly, the loss to Iowa keeps looking worse and worse, but they defeated Syracuse and played Arizona close. Are they going to win the American? Probably not. But given how anemic they've looked in past years, I'd say this is a pretty significant improvement. Announcers and pundits love to talk about "the culture" of a program, and I think in this case it really applies. They are playing with a new energy and look like a completely different team than they did last season. No player exemplifies that more than Eric Cobb. He played 7.7 minutes a game last season and scored 1.7 points a game. This year, he's up to 15 minutes and is scoring 6.9 points (nice) and grabbing 5 rebounds, and constantly looks like he deserves more minutes. His best games have come against the best teams, putting in impressive performance against Iowa, Arizona, and especially Syracuse. In just 8 games, Hurley has put UConn back on track to being a consistent NCAA tournament team again.

- I think I may have seriously underestimated Arizona this year. Their only losses have come against Gonzaga ands Auburn, two consensus top 10 teams. They feature victories over an admittedly shorthanded Iowa State team, but that win will age well, and now Connecticut. Playing Brandon Williams and Justin Coleman together results in great ball movement and lots of good shots, and the defense is typically great, as it tends to be under Sean Miller. Chase Jeter is finally looking like the player he was touted to be out of high school, and he's been the guy I'm coming away impressed by every time I watch Arizona. The Wildcats have another great recruiting class coming in next year so it should be back to business as usual in Tuscon, but this season may be one of Miller's most impressive given the lack of obvious impact talent.

- Syracuse has gone on some crazy runs in March Madness as a low seed, and the main reason for that is their 2-3 zone being so tough to plan for on such short notice. You basically have one way to attack it, and it takes typically great offensive teams away from what they want to do and makes them play the way that Cuse wants them to. Mike Hopkins has brought the zone to Washington, and it's looked great in his first year and eight games at the helm of the Huskies. When watching them play UC Santa Barbara, it was clear the Gauchos were frustrated for much of the game trying to break down the zone and were mostly passing the ball around on the perimeter and settling for long jumpers. They only had success in transition, the best way to beat the zone is to not let it get set up, and when they were able to attack the center. With versatile defenders like Hameir Wright, Naz Carter, and especially Matisse Thybulle, Washington makes the zone a major nuisance and they will be a very good defensive unit all year.

- In that same game, I was very impressed by the Gauchos. Playing without Max Heidegger, their leading scorer last year who is out with a concussion, UCSB has gotten to 6-2, and only lost by 4 to the Huskies. Their roster is populated with high major talents like Ar'Mond Davis, a grad transfer from Alabama who had 20 points in this one, Devearl Ramsey, a Nevada transfer who was impressive, JaQuori McLaughlin, an Oregon State transfer who has been good thus far, and Amadou Sow, a freshman who has looked like a steal so far. They are in my opinion the Big West favorite, and they proved they can play with some very good teams, making them a terrifying matchup come March.

- UCLA will continue to be limited by their defense. It's been their constant Achilles heel under Steve Alford, and things aren't different at all this season. When they played teams capable of exploiting their weak D, they lost handily. However, they are going to be fun to watch on offense. Kris Wilkes has been great, but we knew he was going to do that coming in. However, Moses Brown and Jaylen Hands are currently playing up to their potential, which makes the Bruins very potent offensively. At the moment Brown is scoring 13 points a game to go along with 9.9 rebounds and 2.8 blocks, and he's coming off a very nice 12 point, 10 rebound, 3 block performance against a then undefeated Loyola-Marymount. Hands may be playing even better, finally finding consistency and living up to his recruiting ranking. He had 17 points and 10 assists against the Lions, and he is one of the best transition players in the country. He's a great passer, averaging 6.3 assists a game, and he's been better defensively this year. I think this is going to be a worse version of Lonzo's team at UCLA, so they'll be very fun to watch all year.

- How good did Michigan State look against Iowa? Their offense was incredible, getting layups on seemingly every possession. They shot 51.7% from the field, and their big, who were consistently getting open looks against Iowa's zone, were 23-30 shooting combined, led by Nick Ward, who was 10-10 from the field and finished with 26 points and 9 rebounds, and Kenny Goins, who was 6-11 from the field and went for 19 points, 14 rebounds, and 7 assists. So much of their offensive efficiency comes from Cassius Winston, who is one of the nation's best point guards. He had 12 assists and 1 turnover in this one, always finding the bigs underneath for easy buckets. The team as a whole finished with 28 assists on 31 made shots, which is very impressive. They have cemented themselves as a top 10 team, and their games against in-state rival Michigan are going to be must-watch TV.



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