The ACC is always one of the best basketball conferences, and this year doesn't look any different. It features some of the best teams in the country, including one that is undefeated, and three teams in my top 10 and six in my top 25. (Check out my latest top 25 here), as well others which have been ranked throughout the year. Give me your own thoughts on the conference on Twitter @ThreePointRange, and check back next week for another rundown of the ACC.
Power Rankings
1. Duke
Record: 11-1
My Thoughts: The Blue Devils have been everything they were advertised to be and more. This is the best team in the country if you ask me, and they have the resume to back it up. They embarrassed Kentucky in their opening game, took down Auburn in Maui, drubbed Indiana, and won a hard fought battle with a tough Texas Tech team at Madison Square Garden. Their only loss comes to Gonzaga by 2 on a neutral court, which is certainly nothing to be ashamed of. They are in the top 3 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and their defense has been particularly impressive, ranking number two in block percentage and number one in steal percentage. The freshman foursome of RJ Barrett, Zion Williamson, Cam Reddish, and Tre Jones has been very good, with Williamson looking especially great. They need to improve their shooting as a team, which is their one weakness, and their half court offense has been average, Not that it matters that much since Duke has the thirteenth fastest pace in the country and are always playing in transition. They are the cream of the crop and I think they should be the considered the favorite in the ACC given their play so far.
2. Virginia
Record: 12-0
My Thoughts: Honestly the play of Virginia has been really great and they may even be better than last season's team that won the ACC. It's a really interesting contrast with Duke, as UVA is in the top 10 on KenPom in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, but they do it with a different style. They rarely turn the ball over, play stout defense based on keeping their opponents away from the rim, rarely foul, and make a good amount of threes. Also unlike Duke, they are the slowest team in America and they've gone this far without losing, with wins over Dayton, Wisconsin, Maryland, and VCU. Ty Jerome has taken a step forward and looks like a first rounder, and although their defense gets a lot go attention, their offense is very good. They are a top 5 team that no one talks about, but they are once again brilliant and they are a Final Four threat once again.
3. Florida State
Record: 11-1
My Thoughts: The Seminoles are one of my favorite teams in the nation and they have broken into the top 10 on their steady play throughout the year. I just love their depth and style of play, with a seemingly endless supply of athletic wings who play well on the defensive end and really shine in transition. They've also played most of the season without Phil Cofer, who is back and was one of their biggest contributors last season. They made a big statement with their blowout win over Florida on opening night, and have wins over LSU, Purdue, UConn, and Saint Louis, and their lone loss came against Villanova. I just really like the way they play, and you'll see that reflected later on with another team, but I think the Noles are going to be very good in the ACC.
4. Virginia Tech
Record: 11-1
My Thoughts: I rarely see people write about the teams I have ranked 2-4 in Virginia, Florida State, and Virginia Tech, but they are all top 10 quality teams that are outstanding and deserve more talk that just "Nickeil Alexander-Walker is good" from some NBA draft writers. The Hokies are one of the best offensive teams in the nation, ranking fifth in adjusted offensive efficiencies, and they make threes at one of the highest rates in the nation, shooting 44.4% as a team. As I mentioned, Nickeil Alexander-Walker has taken a huge step forward this year, shooting 56.1% from the field, 46.8% from three, scoring 18.5 points a game, getting 4.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 2.5 steals a game. Fun fact: his three point percentage is third on his own team, with Ahmad Hill shooting 48.6% and Ty Outlaw making threes at an insane 52.9% clip. With Justin Robinson also playing well once again, and the fact that the Hokies force turnovers at one of the highest rates in the nation while rarely fouling. They've notably beaten Purdue and Washington, with a bad loss at home to Penn State, and they are going to be a massive threat in the ACC.
5. North Carolina
Record: 9-3
My Thoughts: North Carolina has been pretty up and down for me this season. There's no doubt that they are one of the best offensive teams in the nation, averaging 91.4 points a game and ranking seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency. They showed that in their statement win over Gonzaga at home, where they poured 103 points in on the Zags. However, I don't think they have been as good as they can be this year, with Luke Maye not playing as well as he did last year and notably Nassir Little not having the impact many thought he would. I think playing two bigs on the floor at the same time has limited them somewhat, even though I think Garrison Brooks has actually been pretty good this year. I would just like to see Roy Williams go with Little, Maye, and Cameron Johnson, who has been spectacular, on the floor, since I think it will be more dynamic offensively, especially in the open floor which would be beneficial to the Tar Heels since they have the third fastest offense in the nation. I also think their defense, which has been their Achilles heel this year, would be better on the perimeter with that lineup without giving up too much on the glass since Johnson and Little are skilled rebounders. They have one of the highest ceilings in the country, but I think they need to make some rotation changes to get there.
6. North Carolina State
Record: 12-1
My Thoughts: I have made my love for this team clear on multiple occasions. Kevin Keatts is, in my opinion, one of the top coaches in America, and the job he has done for the Wolfpack has been stellar. He has implemented his high octane pressing system, and it is so much fun to watch. Like their in-state rivals the Tar Heels, they are one of the fastest teams in the country, and it is very effective. They force turnovers at the third highest rate in the nation, and they have wins over Vanderbilt, Penn State, and Auburn to show for their efforts, and they had Wisconsin on the ropes before falling to the Badgers in a very close game. They go 10 deep and all of them have bought into this system. They also make threes at a high rate, shooting 41.4% which is seventh in the nation, and they have one of the best teams on the offensive glass, getting 38.5% of rebounds on that end of the floor. Hiowever, like a lot of up-tempo teams, they turn the ball over a little too much and have a tendency to foul. However, this is a great team and a sneaky bet to take down a few teams ahead of them here.
7. Louisville
Record: 9-4
My Thoughts: Louisville has been solid all year. They don't really do anything that jumps off the page as elite, but they are good all around and have avoided bad losses during a tough schedule. Although they lost to Tennessee, Marquette, Indiana, and Kentucky, they've picked up wins over Michigan State, Seton Hall, and top mid-major programs Vermont and Lipscomb. Jordan Nwora has broken out this year, and the 6'8" Nigerian is averaging 17.8 points a game along with 8.4 rebounds while shooting 38.6% from three. He's one of the better players in the conference, and presents a matchup nightmare thanks to his size and skill on the perimeter. The Cardinals don't beat themselves, keeping opponents off the offensive glass, protecting the ball, and getting to the foul line and making their free throws. However, the defense is pretty conservative and prefers to stay at home rather than going for steals, which allows the opposing team to run their offense without much disruption. They are a team that will beat who they are supposed to, and win against a better team on an off day, but they aren't ever going to surprise you with a huge performance.
8. Syracuse
Record: 9-4
My Thoughts: This is the team I know the best, given I attend Syracuse University and regularly attend and watch their games. I do try to remain pretty unbiased, but I am a fan first, and this is my favorite team. Anyways, it's been a pretty disappointing year for the Orange. They lost to Oregon and UConn at MSG, and then lost back to back games to Old Dominion and Buffalo in the Carrier Dome. They do have a nice win over Ohio State on the road, and beat rival Georgetown at home, but overall they haven't lived up to preseason expectations. The main reason why has been their dreadful offense. I've complained about it before, but they are very willing to go isolation while the other four guys stand and watch, and hope a guy can make a play. It certainly doesn't help that as a team the Orange shoot 29.9% from three and seem very content to take a lot of shots from deep. However, there is hope for them to turn things around. They have a very good defense, forcing turnovers on 24.2% of possessions, and when they run in transition, they look really good thanks to all the long and athletic players that populate the zone. It is very hard to break down the 2-3, especially with all the length, so look for Syracuse to knock off a big name or two, but I could also see them dropping a few easy games.
9. Clemson
Record: 10-3
My Thoughts: The Tigers lost 3 of 4 in late November/early December, and really missed some chances to pick up a resume-headlining with with Creighton on a neutral and Nebraska at home, in two games decided by five points or less. As of now, their best wins are over Lipscomb at home and Georgia on a neutral court. The play of Marcquise Reed has been really strong to start the year, as the senior guard is scoring 20.1 points a game along with 5.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 2.1 steals, and he really leads the way for the Tigers. The one weakness in his game, and for the Tigers as a whole, comes at the three point line. Reed only shoots 29% from deep, while the Tigers as a team make 31.6% of their shots from three point range. They also struggle to defend the arc with opposing teams making 38.2% of their three pointers. That isn't a very good combination, and with their struggles turning the ball over, I could see Clemson dropping a few close games. Still, I think they will be solid throughout the year and be in contention for a tournament bid.
10. Notre Dame
Record: 10-3
My Thoughts: The Fighting Irish weren't a team I had high expectations for coming into the year after they lost a lot of production from last year's team, and after a loss to Radford it looked like I was right. However, they've rebounded nicely with wins over DePaul, Illinois, and Purdue, and a loss at the buzzer to UCLA and falling to Oklahoma by five on a neutral court. A lot of the credit has to go to Mike Brey, as the Irish are very well coached. They don't turn the ball over, keep their opposition off the free throw line, and are known for their stellar offense. It hasn't been as good this year, which is understandable given all of the losses from the team they had last year. However, there are some worrying signs, especially after the injury to senior guard Rex Pflueger. They have also had some offensive struggles, including a good deal inside the three point arc, which may come from the lack of size on the roster. As I said with Louisville, this isn't a team that will beat itself, but I question if they have enough talent to win the games necessary to make the tournament.
11. Pittsburgh
Record: 10-3
My Thoughts: After not winning a game in the ACC last year, Pittsburgh fired Kevin Stallings and brought in Jeff Capel, and the change has been immediate. Sure, the loss to Niagra stings, but with their only other losses coming on the road against Iowa and West Virginia and wins over Saint Louis and Duquense, there is a good deal to like about the Panthers this year. It's really been done with a group of freshmen in Xavier Johnson, Trey McGowans, and Au'Diese Toney. They are combined for 38.6 points a game on the year, and Johnson in particular has been an unexpected standout. He's shooting 42.6% from deep and he leads the team with 5 assists and 16.3 points a game. They play at a pretty fast pace, but that's been really counterproductive as they turn the ball over a lot. The defense has been good, they do a very good job at guarding the arc, but they give up a lot of offensive rebounds. I actually kind of like this team, although I don't think they are going to be very good this year, but they have a nice core for the future.
12. Boston College
Record: 9-3
My Thoughts: I'm really out on the Eagles this year. Outside of Ky Bowman, who is very good, I don't love this roster, and they haven't been impressive in the slightest this year. With losses to IUPUI and more recently Hartford, along with Providence, all at home, they haven't shown me a lot. I did see them beat Minnesota, in a solid win, and the end of the DePaul matchup, which was basically handed to them by the Blue Demons, and I really just don't see a lot with them. They really struggle from deep, shooting 30.7% from three. BC does take care of the ball pretty well, especially given a pretty fast pace, although their opponents slow the ball down and will pick apart their defense. I really think they will struggle throughout the year, and they could finish lower than this after ACC play.
13. Miami
Record: 8-4
My Thoughts: The Hurricanes are one of my most disappointing teams in the nation. A large part of their struggles has been the absence of Dewan Hernandez, and the four game losing streak at the end of November and beginning of November to Seton Hall, Rutgers, Yale, and Penn really made me reevaluate what I thought about this team. The thing is, when you look at the numbers, they are sorta positive. They look the part of an average high-major team, and I really like their starting 5, although they have absolutely no depth. Chris Lykes is so much fun to watch, and Anthony Lawrence is a guy who I really like. They struggled in the non-conference schedule, and only have one decent win over Fresno State, but I think that four game stretch made people dismiss this team early, and I think they could sneak up and maybe work their way towards the bubble during ACC play.
14. Wake Forest
Record: 6-5
My Thoughts: Danny Manning's seat has to be getting pretty hot at the moment. The Demon Deacons have no been good at all this season, and are currently on a two game losing streak after falling to Tennessee and Gardner-Webb. Factor in losses to Saint Joe's, Houston Baptist, and Richmond, and their best win coming over a Kellan Grady-less Davidson at home by 4 points. Freshman Jaylen Hoard had been pretty good, scoring 14.5 points and getting 7 rebounds a game, but he might head out to the draft to escape this horror show. They are weirdly elite at getting to the foul line, but outside of that, I don't see a lot. Their defense is pretty bad, ranking around 200 in KenPom, and they rarely force turnovers and struggle with shots around the rim. I wouldn't be shocked if Manning is out of a job come April, and I really don't like this team at all.
15. Georgia Tech
Record: 7-5
My Thoughts: I'm slightly higher of Wake because of Jaylen Hoard, but they could easily occupy this spot. This is another team that lost to Gardner-Webb, along with Tennessee, Northwestern, St. John's, and in-state rival Georgia. Their win over Arkansas is pretty solid, but outside of that, they aren't looking good. I'm really not sold on Jose Alvarado, but I do really like James Banks in the post. They can't shoot, which is worrisome, and they turn the ball over a whole lot. They are pretty good on defense, but I don't think it's a good enough defense to slow down most of the teams in the ACC. They are not pretty to watch, and I am just really not sold on this team as much as some other people.
What I Saw
This is where I'll breakdown the previous week's games in a similar fashion to my Fast Break series. I'll offer my thoughts and observations from that slate and explain my changes, if any, to my power rankings all in this space. There obviously weren't any games this past week, so for now this is all I have here.
What to Watch
- The ACC actually starts off pretty weak. There are still some non-conference games to be had early on, although the first conference game is on New Year's Day when Notre Dame travels to Virginia Tech. It's not the best matchup this year, with Notre Dame going through a rebuilding year, but Jon Rothstein will remind you to never bet against Mike Brey, and they are riding a 4 game winning streak featuring a win over Purdue into conference play. Are they the team of years past? No, but they are still dangerous and could easily upset Virginia Tech or another team during ACC play.
- Speaking of Notre Dame, they will host my Syracuse Orange on Saturday. I mentioned this during my latest addition of The Fast Break, but Syracuse needs a strong start to ACC play. They don't have a gauntlet, starting off in South Bend before returning to the Carrier Dome to host Clemson and Georgia Tech. If they can start off ACC play 3-0 before a trip to Duke, that would go a long way towards an NCAA tournament berth.
- The highlight of the week in the ACC and college basketball as a whole is Florida State is traveling to Charlottesville to play Virginia. This is a top 10 matchup with two teams with differing styles. Virginia is top 10 in both offense and defense on KenPom, which is incredibly impressive, and they thrive by playing their own pace, the slowest in the country, and of course playing the pack line defense, which gives them some impressive numbers. Meanwhile, Florida State is top 100 in tempo and thrives by getting all of their athletes out in transition, and they feature in the top 25 in both offense and defense per KenPom. The game comes down to two things: turnovers and free throws. Virginia is one of the most well coached teams in the nation and has the second best turnover percentage in the nation on offense, while Florida State has a top 20 number in that category on defense. Meanwhile, the Noles turn it over a lot and that could be very costly against the Hoos. If they get extra possessions, it will allow them to control the tempo even more and keep this to a slow, half court game. To the other point, Virginia is one of the best teams at the country both at the foul line, shooting 77.2% as a team which is top 15 in the nation, and limit opposing teams from getting to the line. They are borderline top 30 at keeping their opposition off the line and even when they do take free throws, opponents shoot 60% from the line. However, Florida State is top 100 in the country at getting to the free throw line and shoot 75.8% at the charity stripe. However, they also send opponents to the foul line a lot, which could be their undoing in this one. If the Seminoles can win the turnover and free throw battles, I think they can win. However, it looks like a tall task, and I think Virginia will win this game.
- Finally, Clemson will travel to Duke and take on the Blue Devils. I came away impressed with Clemson after their win against Lipscomb, but Duke and Lipscomb are very different levels of competition. This game does feature the three highest scorers in the ACC in RJ Barrett and Zion Williamson for Duke and Marcquise Reed for Clemson, and I wouldn't be shocked to see this be a pretty close game at the half. However, I think Duke will pull away in the second half, especially since Clemson has been sloppy with the ball this year, and I don't think letting Duke get out in transition is a good strategy.
Full ACC Schedule 1/1-1/6
1/1
Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech
Winthrop @ Florida State
1/2
Harvard @ North Carolina
Cornell @ Wake Forest
USC Upstate @ Georgia Tech
1/3
North Carolina State @ Miami
1/5
Syracuse @ Notre Dame
Boston College @ Virginia Tech
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh
Wake Forest @ Georgia Tech
Florida State @ Virginia
Clemson @ Duke
1/6
Miami @ Louisville
3 Questions
1. Who can stop Duke?
I should probably clarify what I mean a little bit here. If the question is who can beat Duke in a game, there is a surprising amount of answers in my mind. Virginia is probably the team best designed to beat Duke in the nation, Florida State has the length to match up with the crazy athleticism of the Blue Devils, Virginia Tech and North Carolina could both outscore Duke if they are shooting well, North Carolina State can throw a press at them and disrupt their style, and I still wonder if Duke has the shooting to beat the Syracuse zone. However, if the question is who can unseat them from the best team in the conference, it really comes down to two teams in my mind. The first is obviously Virginia, who are undefeated and show no signs of slowing down, except when they get the ball. You have to be able to speed them up and make your shots to beat them, and that is very hard to do. The other is the arch rival of the Blue Devils, the North Carolina Tar Heels. If Nassir Little improves and begins to feature more, I think they could look like a very different team and turn into an offensive juggernaut and maybe win the ACC.
2. What role will Nassir Little have?
I've brought it up twice, but Nassir Little hasn't had the role I thought he would have coming into the year. He was a consensus top 5 recruit, and I thought he would slide in immediately next to Cameron Johnson on the wing. Instead, he has yet to start a game and is playing under 50% of the minutes for the Tar Heels. Part of that has to fall on him, as he hasn't been playing as well as expected coming into the year. A lot of that is on the defensive end, where he has been caught out of position a lot and gambling for steals when he doesn't need to. He also isn't shooting the ball particularly well, and he actually hasn't made a three since November 22. However, I think North Carolina looked best last year with Luke Maye playing center and spreading the floor, and Little would fit well into that sort of system. This year, Roy Williams has opted to go with Garrison Brooks at center, and play with three perimeter players. Given that this team likes to play fast, I think Little fits better into that system as a guy who is very strong and athletic and can attack the basket off the bounce. He may be the biggest X-factor in the ACC this year, and I think it'll be a very interesting story to watch throughout the remainder of the season.
3. How good is the third tier?
When I look at the ACC, I see three very distinct group. The first is the elite teams, with Duke and Virginia sitting there at the moment. Then comes the top 25 caliber teams, with Florida State, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and North Carolina State. Could there be a little bit of movement? Sure, but those stand out at the top, and then the bottom of the conference with Pitt, Boston College, Miami, Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech. But that middle group is really fascinating. Louisville, Syracuse, Clemson, and Notre Dame are all bubble teams at the moment, and I think the conference as a whole will be defined by how many of these teams make it into March. They are all flawed, but do things well, as I outlined above, and if these teams make sure they handle their business against that bottom tier and pick up a win or two in those big games, there could be 10 bids. If not, I think 7 is a pretty realistic possibility.
Power Rankings
1. Duke
Record: 11-1
My Thoughts: The Blue Devils have been everything they were advertised to be and more. This is the best team in the country if you ask me, and they have the resume to back it up. They embarrassed Kentucky in their opening game, took down Auburn in Maui, drubbed Indiana, and won a hard fought battle with a tough Texas Tech team at Madison Square Garden. Their only loss comes to Gonzaga by 2 on a neutral court, which is certainly nothing to be ashamed of. They are in the top 3 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and their defense has been particularly impressive, ranking number two in block percentage and number one in steal percentage. The freshman foursome of RJ Barrett, Zion Williamson, Cam Reddish, and Tre Jones has been very good, with Williamson looking especially great. They need to improve their shooting as a team, which is their one weakness, and their half court offense has been average, Not that it matters that much since Duke has the thirteenth fastest pace in the country and are always playing in transition. They are the cream of the crop and I think they should be the considered the favorite in the ACC given their play so far.
2. Virginia
Record: 12-0
My Thoughts: Honestly the play of Virginia has been really great and they may even be better than last season's team that won the ACC. It's a really interesting contrast with Duke, as UVA is in the top 10 on KenPom in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, but they do it with a different style. They rarely turn the ball over, play stout defense based on keeping their opponents away from the rim, rarely foul, and make a good amount of threes. Also unlike Duke, they are the slowest team in America and they've gone this far without losing, with wins over Dayton, Wisconsin, Maryland, and VCU. Ty Jerome has taken a step forward and looks like a first rounder, and although their defense gets a lot go attention, their offense is very good. They are a top 5 team that no one talks about, but they are once again brilliant and they are a Final Four threat once again.
3. Florida State
Record: 11-1
My Thoughts: The Seminoles are one of my favorite teams in the nation and they have broken into the top 10 on their steady play throughout the year. I just love their depth and style of play, with a seemingly endless supply of athletic wings who play well on the defensive end and really shine in transition. They've also played most of the season without Phil Cofer, who is back and was one of their biggest contributors last season. They made a big statement with their blowout win over Florida on opening night, and have wins over LSU, Purdue, UConn, and Saint Louis, and their lone loss came against Villanova. I just really like the way they play, and you'll see that reflected later on with another team, but I think the Noles are going to be very good in the ACC.
4. Virginia Tech
Record: 11-1
My Thoughts: I rarely see people write about the teams I have ranked 2-4 in Virginia, Florida State, and Virginia Tech, but they are all top 10 quality teams that are outstanding and deserve more talk that just "Nickeil Alexander-Walker is good" from some NBA draft writers. The Hokies are one of the best offensive teams in the nation, ranking fifth in adjusted offensive efficiencies, and they make threes at one of the highest rates in the nation, shooting 44.4% as a team. As I mentioned, Nickeil Alexander-Walker has taken a huge step forward this year, shooting 56.1% from the field, 46.8% from three, scoring 18.5 points a game, getting 4.3 rebounds, 3.8 assists, and 2.5 steals a game. Fun fact: his three point percentage is third on his own team, with Ahmad Hill shooting 48.6% and Ty Outlaw making threes at an insane 52.9% clip. With Justin Robinson also playing well once again, and the fact that the Hokies force turnovers at one of the highest rates in the nation while rarely fouling. They've notably beaten Purdue and Washington, with a bad loss at home to Penn State, and they are going to be a massive threat in the ACC.
5. North Carolina
Record: 9-3
My Thoughts: North Carolina has been pretty up and down for me this season. There's no doubt that they are one of the best offensive teams in the nation, averaging 91.4 points a game and ranking seventh in adjusted offensive efficiency. They showed that in their statement win over Gonzaga at home, where they poured 103 points in on the Zags. However, I don't think they have been as good as they can be this year, with Luke Maye not playing as well as he did last year and notably Nassir Little not having the impact many thought he would. I think playing two bigs on the floor at the same time has limited them somewhat, even though I think Garrison Brooks has actually been pretty good this year. I would just like to see Roy Williams go with Little, Maye, and Cameron Johnson, who has been spectacular, on the floor, since I think it will be more dynamic offensively, especially in the open floor which would be beneficial to the Tar Heels since they have the third fastest offense in the nation. I also think their defense, which has been their Achilles heel this year, would be better on the perimeter with that lineup without giving up too much on the glass since Johnson and Little are skilled rebounders. They have one of the highest ceilings in the country, but I think they need to make some rotation changes to get there.
6. North Carolina State
Record: 12-1
My Thoughts: I have made my love for this team clear on multiple occasions. Kevin Keatts is, in my opinion, one of the top coaches in America, and the job he has done for the Wolfpack has been stellar. He has implemented his high octane pressing system, and it is so much fun to watch. Like their in-state rivals the Tar Heels, they are one of the fastest teams in the country, and it is very effective. They force turnovers at the third highest rate in the nation, and they have wins over Vanderbilt, Penn State, and Auburn to show for their efforts, and they had Wisconsin on the ropes before falling to the Badgers in a very close game. They go 10 deep and all of them have bought into this system. They also make threes at a high rate, shooting 41.4% which is seventh in the nation, and they have one of the best teams on the offensive glass, getting 38.5% of rebounds on that end of the floor. Hiowever, like a lot of up-tempo teams, they turn the ball over a little too much and have a tendency to foul. However, this is a great team and a sneaky bet to take down a few teams ahead of them here.
7. Louisville
Record: 9-4
My Thoughts: Louisville has been solid all year. They don't really do anything that jumps off the page as elite, but they are good all around and have avoided bad losses during a tough schedule. Although they lost to Tennessee, Marquette, Indiana, and Kentucky, they've picked up wins over Michigan State, Seton Hall, and top mid-major programs Vermont and Lipscomb. Jordan Nwora has broken out this year, and the 6'8" Nigerian is averaging 17.8 points a game along with 8.4 rebounds while shooting 38.6% from three. He's one of the better players in the conference, and presents a matchup nightmare thanks to his size and skill on the perimeter. The Cardinals don't beat themselves, keeping opponents off the offensive glass, protecting the ball, and getting to the foul line and making their free throws. However, the defense is pretty conservative and prefers to stay at home rather than going for steals, which allows the opposing team to run their offense without much disruption. They are a team that will beat who they are supposed to, and win against a better team on an off day, but they aren't ever going to surprise you with a huge performance.
8. Syracuse
Record: 9-4
My Thoughts: This is the team I know the best, given I attend Syracuse University and regularly attend and watch their games. I do try to remain pretty unbiased, but I am a fan first, and this is my favorite team. Anyways, it's been a pretty disappointing year for the Orange. They lost to Oregon and UConn at MSG, and then lost back to back games to Old Dominion and Buffalo in the Carrier Dome. They do have a nice win over Ohio State on the road, and beat rival Georgetown at home, but overall they haven't lived up to preseason expectations. The main reason why has been their dreadful offense. I've complained about it before, but they are very willing to go isolation while the other four guys stand and watch, and hope a guy can make a play. It certainly doesn't help that as a team the Orange shoot 29.9% from three and seem very content to take a lot of shots from deep. However, there is hope for them to turn things around. They have a very good defense, forcing turnovers on 24.2% of possessions, and when they run in transition, they look really good thanks to all the long and athletic players that populate the zone. It is very hard to break down the 2-3, especially with all the length, so look for Syracuse to knock off a big name or two, but I could also see them dropping a few easy games.
9. Clemson
Record: 10-3
My Thoughts: The Tigers lost 3 of 4 in late November/early December, and really missed some chances to pick up a resume-headlining with with Creighton on a neutral and Nebraska at home, in two games decided by five points or less. As of now, their best wins are over Lipscomb at home and Georgia on a neutral court. The play of Marcquise Reed has been really strong to start the year, as the senior guard is scoring 20.1 points a game along with 5.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 2.1 steals, and he really leads the way for the Tigers. The one weakness in his game, and for the Tigers as a whole, comes at the three point line. Reed only shoots 29% from deep, while the Tigers as a team make 31.6% of their shots from three point range. They also struggle to defend the arc with opposing teams making 38.2% of their three pointers. That isn't a very good combination, and with their struggles turning the ball over, I could see Clemson dropping a few close games. Still, I think they will be solid throughout the year and be in contention for a tournament bid.
10. Notre Dame
Record: 10-3
My Thoughts: The Fighting Irish weren't a team I had high expectations for coming into the year after they lost a lot of production from last year's team, and after a loss to Radford it looked like I was right. However, they've rebounded nicely with wins over DePaul, Illinois, and Purdue, and a loss at the buzzer to UCLA and falling to Oklahoma by five on a neutral court. A lot of the credit has to go to Mike Brey, as the Irish are very well coached. They don't turn the ball over, keep their opposition off the free throw line, and are known for their stellar offense. It hasn't been as good this year, which is understandable given all of the losses from the team they had last year. However, there are some worrying signs, especially after the injury to senior guard Rex Pflueger. They have also had some offensive struggles, including a good deal inside the three point arc, which may come from the lack of size on the roster. As I said with Louisville, this isn't a team that will beat itself, but I question if they have enough talent to win the games necessary to make the tournament.
11. Pittsburgh
Record: 10-3
My Thoughts: After not winning a game in the ACC last year, Pittsburgh fired Kevin Stallings and brought in Jeff Capel, and the change has been immediate. Sure, the loss to Niagra stings, but with their only other losses coming on the road against Iowa and West Virginia and wins over Saint Louis and Duquense, there is a good deal to like about the Panthers this year. It's really been done with a group of freshmen in Xavier Johnson, Trey McGowans, and Au'Diese Toney. They are combined for 38.6 points a game on the year, and Johnson in particular has been an unexpected standout. He's shooting 42.6% from deep and he leads the team with 5 assists and 16.3 points a game. They play at a pretty fast pace, but that's been really counterproductive as they turn the ball over a lot. The defense has been good, they do a very good job at guarding the arc, but they give up a lot of offensive rebounds. I actually kind of like this team, although I don't think they are going to be very good this year, but they have a nice core for the future.
12. Boston College
Record: 9-3
My Thoughts: I'm really out on the Eagles this year. Outside of Ky Bowman, who is very good, I don't love this roster, and they haven't been impressive in the slightest this year. With losses to IUPUI and more recently Hartford, along with Providence, all at home, they haven't shown me a lot. I did see them beat Minnesota, in a solid win, and the end of the DePaul matchup, which was basically handed to them by the Blue Demons, and I really just don't see a lot with them. They really struggle from deep, shooting 30.7% from three. BC does take care of the ball pretty well, especially given a pretty fast pace, although their opponents slow the ball down and will pick apart their defense. I really think they will struggle throughout the year, and they could finish lower than this after ACC play.
13. Miami
Record: 8-4
My Thoughts: The Hurricanes are one of my most disappointing teams in the nation. A large part of their struggles has been the absence of Dewan Hernandez, and the four game losing streak at the end of November and beginning of November to Seton Hall, Rutgers, Yale, and Penn really made me reevaluate what I thought about this team. The thing is, when you look at the numbers, they are sorta positive. They look the part of an average high-major team, and I really like their starting 5, although they have absolutely no depth. Chris Lykes is so much fun to watch, and Anthony Lawrence is a guy who I really like. They struggled in the non-conference schedule, and only have one decent win over Fresno State, but I think that four game stretch made people dismiss this team early, and I think they could sneak up and maybe work their way towards the bubble during ACC play.
14. Wake Forest
Record: 6-5
My Thoughts: Danny Manning's seat has to be getting pretty hot at the moment. The Demon Deacons have no been good at all this season, and are currently on a two game losing streak after falling to Tennessee and Gardner-Webb. Factor in losses to Saint Joe's, Houston Baptist, and Richmond, and their best win coming over a Kellan Grady-less Davidson at home by 4 points. Freshman Jaylen Hoard had been pretty good, scoring 14.5 points and getting 7 rebounds a game, but he might head out to the draft to escape this horror show. They are weirdly elite at getting to the foul line, but outside of that, I don't see a lot. Their defense is pretty bad, ranking around 200 in KenPom, and they rarely force turnovers and struggle with shots around the rim. I wouldn't be shocked if Manning is out of a job come April, and I really don't like this team at all.
15. Georgia Tech
Record: 7-5
My Thoughts: I'm slightly higher of Wake because of Jaylen Hoard, but they could easily occupy this spot. This is another team that lost to Gardner-Webb, along with Tennessee, Northwestern, St. John's, and in-state rival Georgia. Their win over Arkansas is pretty solid, but outside of that, they aren't looking good. I'm really not sold on Jose Alvarado, but I do really like James Banks in the post. They can't shoot, which is worrisome, and they turn the ball over a whole lot. They are pretty good on defense, but I don't think it's a good enough defense to slow down most of the teams in the ACC. They are not pretty to watch, and I am just really not sold on this team as much as some other people.
What I Saw
This is where I'll breakdown the previous week's games in a similar fashion to my Fast Break series. I'll offer my thoughts and observations from that slate and explain my changes, if any, to my power rankings all in this space. There obviously weren't any games this past week, so for now this is all I have here.
What to Watch
- The ACC actually starts off pretty weak. There are still some non-conference games to be had early on, although the first conference game is on New Year's Day when Notre Dame travels to Virginia Tech. It's not the best matchup this year, with Notre Dame going through a rebuilding year, but Jon Rothstein will remind you to never bet against Mike Brey, and they are riding a 4 game winning streak featuring a win over Purdue into conference play. Are they the team of years past? No, but they are still dangerous and could easily upset Virginia Tech or another team during ACC play.
- Speaking of Notre Dame, they will host my Syracuse Orange on Saturday. I mentioned this during my latest addition of The Fast Break, but Syracuse needs a strong start to ACC play. They don't have a gauntlet, starting off in South Bend before returning to the Carrier Dome to host Clemson and Georgia Tech. If they can start off ACC play 3-0 before a trip to Duke, that would go a long way towards an NCAA tournament berth.
- The highlight of the week in the ACC and college basketball as a whole is Florida State is traveling to Charlottesville to play Virginia. This is a top 10 matchup with two teams with differing styles. Virginia is top 10 in both offense and defense on KenPom, which is incredibly impressive, and they thrive by playing their own pace, the slowest in the country, and of course playing the pack line defense, which gives them some impressive numbers. Meanwhile, Florida State is top 100 in tempo and thrives by getting all of their athletes out in transition, and they feature in the top 25 in both offense and defense per KenPom. The game comes down to two things: turnovers and free throws. Virginia is one of the most well coached teams in the nation and has the second best turnover percentage in the nation on offense, while Florida State has a top 20 number in that category on defense. Meanwhile, the Noles turn it over a lot and that could be very costly against the Hoos. If they get extra possessions, it will allow them to control the tempo even more and keep this to a slow, half court game. To the other point, Virginia is one of the best teams at the country both at the foul line, shooting 77.2% as a team which is top 15 in the nation, and limit opposing teams from getting to the line. They are borderline top 30 at keeping their opposition off the line and even when they do take free throws, opponents shoot 60% from the line. However, Florida State is top 100 in the country at getting to the free throw line and shoot 75.8% at the charity stripe. However, they also send opponents to the foul line a lot, which could be their undoing in this one. If the Seminoles can win the turnover and free throw battles, I think they can win. However, it looks like a tall task, and I think Virginia will win this game.
- Finally, Clemson will travel to Duke and take on the Blue Devils. I came away impressed with Clemson after their win against Lipscomb, but Duke and Lipscomb are very different levels of competition. This game does feature the three highest scorers in the ACC in RJ Barrett and Zion Williamson for Duke and Marcquise Reed for Clemson, and I wouldn't be shocked to see this be a pretty close game at the half. However, I think Duke will pull away in the second half, especially since Clemson has been sloppy with the ball this year, and I don't think letting Duke get out in transition is a good strategy.
Full ACC Schedule 1/1-1/6
1/1
Notre Dame @ Virginia Tech
Winthrop @ Florida State
1/2
Harvard @ North Carolina
Cornell @ Wake Forest
USC Upstate @ Georgia Tech
1/3
North Carolina State @ Miami
1/5
Syracuse @ Notre Dame
Boston College @ Virginia Tech
North Carolina @ Pittsburgh
Wake Forest @ Georgia Tech
Florida State @ Virginia
Clemson @ Duke
1/6
Miami @ Louisville
3 Questions
1. Who can stop Duke?
I should probably clarify what I mean a little bit here. If the question is who can beat Duke in a game, there is a surprising amount of answers in my mind. Virginia is probably the team best designed to beat Duke in the nation, Florida State has the length to match up with the crazy athleticism of the Blue Devils, Virginia Tech and North Carolina could both outscore Duke if they are shooting well, North Carolina State can throw a press at them and disrupt their style, and I still wonder if Duke has the shooting to beat the Syracuse zone. However, if the question is who can unseat them from the best team in the conference, it really comes down to two teams in my mind. The first is obviously Virginia, who are undefeated and show no signs of slowing down, except when they get the ball. You have to be able to speed them up and make your shots to beat them, and that is very hard to do. The other is the arch rival of the Blue Devils, the North Carolina Tar Heels. If Nassir Little improves and begins to feature more, I think they could look like a very different team and turn into an offensive juggernaut and maybe win the ACC.
2. What role will Nassir Little have?
I've brought it up twice, but Nassir Little hasn't had the role I thought he would have coming into the year. He was a consensus top 5 recruit, and I thought he would slide in immediately next to Cameron Johnson on the wing. Instead, he has yet to start a game and is playing under 50% of the minutes for the Tar Heels. Part of that has to fall on him, as he hasn't been playing as well as expected coming into the year. A lot of that is on the defensive end, where he has been caught out of position a lot and gambling for steals when he doesn't need to. He also isn't shooting the ball particularly well, and he actually hasn't made a three since November 22. However, I think North Carolina looked best last year with Luke Maye playing center and spreading the floor, and Little would fit well into that sort of system. This year, Roy Williams has opted to go with Garrison Brooks at center, and play with three perimeter players. Given that this team likes to play fast, I think Little fits better into that system as a guy who is very strong and athletic and can attack the basket off the bounce. He may be the biggest X-factor in the ACC this year, and I think it'll be a very interesting story to watch throughout the remainder of the season.
3. How good is the third tier?
When I look at the ACC, I see three very distinct group. The first is the elite teams, with Duke and Virginia sitting there at the moment. Then comes the top 25 caliber teams, with Florida State, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and North Carolina State. Could there be a little bit of movement? Sure, but those stand out at the top, and then the bottom of the conference with Pitt, Boston College, Miami, Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech. But that middle group is really fascinating. Louisville, Syracuse, Clemson, and Notre Dame are all bubble teams at the moment, and I think the conference as a whole will be defined by how many of these teams make it into March. They are all flawed, but do things well, as I outlined above, and if these teams make sure they handle their business against that bottom tier and pick up a win or two in those big games, there could be 10 bids. If not, I think 7 is a pretty realistic possibility.
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