Merry Christmas Eve! As previously mentioned, I'm going to be taking the holidays off, but I'll be back with new content at the end of the week. Luckily, there isn't really a lot to watch before this upcoming weekend, outside of the Diamond Head Classic, so it should be a nice breather from all things college basketball. However, I wanted to give my thoughts on this weekend's games before they become obsolete. Let me know your thoughts on Twitter @ThreePointRange, and enjoy your holidays.
What I Saw
- Furman and Buffalo both lost their first game of the season on Friday night on the road by 18 points, but they were very different losses. Furman quite simply didn't look as talented as LSU. They weren't bad by any means, but they seemed like a typical decent mid-major squad playing against a more talented team. They hung around in the first half, trailing by 4 at the break, but in the end the Tigers were too much for the Paladians. Meanwhile, Buffalo gave Marquette a game. The Bulls trailed by 1 at the half, and led for most of the first half and with 10 minutes left in the game, it was a 3 point game. If it weren't for Markus Howard's performance, the Bulls had a very good chance to win this game. It should also be noted Buffalo holds wins over West Virginia in Morgantown, San Francisco on a neutral court, Syracuse in the Carrier Dome, and they swept a home and home over a top-150 team in Southern Illinois. Furman, meanwhile, holds an impressive win at Villanova, I'm not going to say that's not good. However, their next best win is over a struggling Loyola-Chicago team that was hyped up be much better than it was because of their Final Four run last year, which is their only other top 100 KenPom win. After that, you have to go to an overtime win over Gardner-Webb, ranked 181, for another "quality" win. I don't think Furman is the best team in their own conference, I don't even know if they are one of the three best teams in the Southern Conference. Meanwhile, I think Buffalo has a really good chance at coasting through the MAC. While there are certainly some good teams with Kent State and Toledo looking like quality teams, so I think they are in excellent position to seize an at-large bid should something go wrong in the conference tournament. In summary: the Bulls are legit, the Paladians aren't.
- LSU needs to play up to it's talent level every game. The Tigers are undoubtedly one of the more talented teams in the nation, with guys like Skylar Mays, Naz Reid, Tremont Waters, and Marlon Taylor. I certainly think they have top 25 skill and can hang around the top of the SEC this season, but they need to all be playing as well as they all have shown in flashes. Against Furman, it was the backcourt duo of Mays and Waters shining, combining for 36 points and 10 assists in the win. Waters has been slightly disappointing this year following one of the more underratedly great seasons of last year. His three point percentage has fallen off as has his assist rate, and he's been coming off the bench recently. He needs to improve, as does Reid, who had questions about his motor coming out of high school, and if he can get going, he'll be tough to stop. It'll be interesting to see where LSU finishes in the SEC, although it seems like they'll be up and down all year.
- I want to actually talk about Marquette. This is a very dangerous team, and I would say they are the ultimate "don't let them get hot" team. The Hauser brothers, Joseph Chartouny, and of course Markus Howard can all set the nets on fire from deep, and you can't allow them to get into a shooting grove. However, I was really impressed with Theo John against Buffalo. The big man was great on Friday night as a bruising front court player, especially on the defensive end. He only had 6 points, although he only took 3 shots, but had 9 rebounds, 7 blocks, and 3 assists. If he can provide that sort of defensive effort on a consistent basis, that will be a massive help for a team that is weak on the interior. However, the star of the game that needs to be talked about is Markus Howard. The dude went absolutely unconscious in the second half, scoring 40 in the half, including 24 straight for the Golden Eagles. He may be the best high volume scorer in the nation, and he's put up 45 twice now. He's so dangerous from deep, making 9-13 from range, and absolutely money from the charity Streep, going 12-12 in this one, and shooting 91% from the line. He's excellent and going to go off again, the question is just when.
- When watching UConn against Villanova, mostly the first half, I was reminded that this team can be really dangerous in the American. The main reason why is the talented backcourt Danny Hurley has at their disposal. Jalen Adams, Alterique Gilbert, and Christian Vital are all very talented, and bringing Tarin Smith off the bench is another very good option. Any of the three starters have the ability to torch a team, and having to prepare for all three is nigh impossible. There are very few teams with 3 perimeter defenders capable of guarding all of them, so it's really a case of who are you not going to let beat you. I wouldn't be shocked to see them have a very good season in the American and knock off some of the better teams in that conference. They are the type of team that can go on a run during the conference tournament and earn their way into the tournament late.
- I've been down on Ohio State all year, but I've gotta say, after watching them play an admittedly horrible UCLA team, I came away warming up to the Buckeyes. I've already made my love for Luther Muhammad clear, he's such a great defender and has a steadily improving jump shot and offensive game overall, but Kaleb Wesson is such a great player. He had 15 points and 12 rebounds in the CBS Classic, and I really like his game. He leads the team with 16.4 points a game, and he is a monster in and around the paint. He was key in the Buckeyes turning around their struggles against the zone UCLA through at them in the first half in the middle of the zone, along with the shooting of CJ Jackson. However, I'm not sure how well Ohio State deal with a quality zones overall. I'm not sold on their outside shooting, and we saw them lose at home to the 2-3 zone of Syracuse. The UCLA zone was pretty flimsy, as their entire defense is, so if a Big Ten team wants an advantage over the Buckeyes, I would maybe look to a zone to slow down this team.
- I wanted to give a little mid-major love here to an absolute stud. Ja Morant from Murray State is so incredible and you may have seen his name floating around in NBA draft circles, and for good reason. Against the defense of Auburn, which is pretty darn good, Morant dominated, scoring 26 points, getting 8 rebounds, and dishing out 7 assists. He is a really gifted passer with both hands, and he threw multiple lobs with perfect weight and balance in this one. He does a lot for the Racers (side note: Racers is one of the best nicknames in the sport), and one of the things that impressed me most was his poise and ability to get to the foul line. There was one play where he got a steal and was out in transition and instead of going out of control and potentially getting his shot blocked, kept himself under control and allowed the oncoming defender to foul him for an and-one. It was one of the smartest plays I've seen this year, and one of the reasons Morant has been generating lottery buzz. The games against Belmont in the Ohio Valley are going to be incredibly entertaining, so get ready for those.
- Kentucky came out against North Carolina, and after struggling for the start of the season, they looked like the elite team most, especially me, assumed they would be heading into the season. Two things really impressed me from the Cats. The first was the play of Reid Travis and PJ Washington, and specifically the interplay between the two. The high-low passing between those two was incredible to watch, with Washington racking up 8 assists, most of them to Travis, and Travis getting 3 of his own. They also dominated the frontline of the Tar Heels, grabbing 17 rebounds combined, and keeping Luke Mays and Garrison Brooks relatively quiet for the majority of the game. I kind of questioned how those two guys, who can't really stretch the floor, would share the floor together, but they look great. The entire team looks a lot better as John Calipari has gotten his rotation sorted out and players appear a lot more comfortable in their roles. The one guy who clearly looks much better is Ashton Hagans. The point guard is an absolute force on the defensive end and was huge in this one. Probably the biggest difference in the game was the fact that Coby White couldn't get comfortable or get the Tar Heels into their offense because of the constant pressure from Hagans. He had 8(!) steals and harassed White all night, holding him to 8 points on 3-10 shooting. Kentucky is trending upwards in a big way and if they keep this up, they have a legit chance to go to the Final Four.
- Seton Hall flew kinda under the radar in the preseason, but I think they have a NCAA Tournament case. The team has revolved around Myles Powell, and with good reason. He's been balling all year, and continued that with a 27 point performance against Maryland. He's made 40 threes and is shooting 38% from long range, and he doesn't get enough pub for how excellent he is. The Big East is filled with high scoring lead guards, and Powell is near the top of that list. He may not be Markus Howard-level, but he's up there with Kamar Baldwin, Shamorie Ponds, and Phil Booth for the second spot. I've always been really impressed with the other Myles, Myles Cale. He needed to take a step forward this year after they lost a lot of production, and he's done just that. He's scoring 9.7 points a game, but he's stepped up in big games with 17 against Kentucky and 23 in the game against Maryland. He's a better shooter than his 36.6% rating, and he will play Robin to Powell's Batman, and I think that combo will win them enough Big East games to get them into March Madness.
- Maryland is a team that still hasn't figured out it's identity yet for some reason. To me, it's clear that this team needs to play through their bigs. Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith are both really good and throw in Anthony Cowan as a really good point guard who can feed them, shoot it well, and blow buy his man, and I think he's super underrated. But still, it seemed like Aaron Wiggins, Eric Ayala, and Cowan were chucking up a lot of threes instead of looking to feed their two talented bigs. Fernando finished with 19 and 10 and Smith had 14 and 8. Those are two of the three most talented players on the roster and it seems like they aren't getting enough touches. Teams succeed by doing what they do well, and until Mark Turgeon gets the ball in the hands of his bigs more often, then I don't think Maryland can hit their ceiling.
- Montana really impressed me with their play against South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits are really good, but they looked pretty average against the Grizzlies. They got lit up by Mike Daum, but everybody gets lit up by Mike Daum. I think they did a really good job on David Jenkins and Tevin King when they were handling the ball and made them uncomfortable with some very physical defense. They forced 12 turnovers and really took this team out of their rhythm offensively, which is pretty hard to do. On the other end, they have some weapons, as they returned most of the pieces from a tournament team last season. Michael Oguine was excellent, scoring 23 points on 4 made threes and had 9 rebounds. Ahmaad Rorie was also really good with 16 points and 6 assists and I thought Oregon State transfer Kendal Manuel was great, providing 11 points on 3 made threes of the bench. They certainly seem like a dangerous 12 seed, and if South Dakota State slides to a lower seed than they have been, they will be incredibly dangerous.
- Let's talk about the Arizona State Sun Devils. They got a win over Kansas, and yet they never really seemed in control of the game. I still really like this team and they are the best team in the Pac-12 by far. When they can get out and run, they look really dangerous. It fits basically the entire roster, with Lu Dort, Zylan Cheatham, Remy Martin, Rob Edwards, and Taeshon Cherry all look really good on the break, and they are one of the fastest teams in the country according to KenPom. I do think Remy Martin could improve, however. I remember his game in Lawrence last year when he looked excellent against Kansas, and he seemed poised to step in and fill the shoes of Shannon Evans and Tra Holder. However, he hasn't been as good as I thought this year, but he's been improving recently. I won't say he needs to play better during conference play, since the conference is awful, but I would like to see him improve to get this team towards their ceiling.
- As for Kansas, I want to start with the good. Dedric Lawson is a goddamn monster. He had 30 points and 14 rebounds, and that was with the Sun Devils really keying in on him during the second half, sending double teams at him almost every time he touched the ball. Jayhawk fans also shouldn't overreact too much to this loss as they were missing big man Udoka Azubuike, who is really key to this team. But man, the perimeter play needs to improve. Lagerald Vick has been good, but pretty inefficient, and Devon Dotson has actually been very good at the point guard spot, but he's not a big time scorer. Marcus Garrett is a non-factor offensively, Charlie Moore hasn't adjusted at all, and the major issue has really been the lackluster play of Quentin Grimes. Ever since the Michigan State game, he has disappeared offensively. And I don't want to keep hating on the kid, there is clearly talent there, but without Doke in the lineup, they need another scorer, and Grimes hasn't stepped up like I though he would've. He'll need to find his game since the Big 12 is a gauntlet, and a capable off-ball shooter to space the floor for Azubuike and Lawson would go a really long way to making this team one of the elites in the country, because right now, they just aren't there.
What I Saw
- Furman and Buffalo both lost their first game of the season on Friday night on the road by 18 points, but they were very different losses. Furman quite simply didn't look as talented as LSU. They weren't bad by any means, but they seemed like a typical decent mid-major squad playing against a more talented team. They hung around in the first half, trailing by 4 at the break, but in the end the Tigers were too much for the Paladians. Meanwhile, Buffalo gave Marquette a game. The Bulls trailed by 1 at the half, and led for most of the first half and with 10 minutes left in the game, it was a 3 point game. If it weren't for Markus Howard's performance, the Bulls had a very good chance to win this game. It should also be noted Buffalo holds wins over West Virginia in Morgantown, San Francisco on a neutral court, Syracuse in the Carrier Dome, and they swept a home and home over a top-150 team in Southern Illinois. Furman, meanwhile, holds an impressive win at Villanova, I'm not going to say that's not good. However, their next best win is over a struggling Loyola-Chicago team that was hyped up be much better than it was because of their Final Four run last year, which is their only other top 100 KenPom win. After that, you have to go to an overtime win over Gardner-Webb, ranked 181, for another "quality" win. I don't think Furman is the best team in their own conference, I don't even know if they are one of the three best teams in the Southern Conference. Meanwhile, I think Buffalo has a really good chance at coasting through the MAC. While there are certainly some good teams with Kent State and Toledo looking like quality teams, so I think they are in excellent position to seize an at-large bid should something go wrong in the conference tournament. In summary: the Bulls are legit, the Paladians aren't.
- LSU needs to play up to it's talent level every game. The Tigers are undoubtedly one of the more talented teams in the nation, with guys like Skylar Mays, Naz Reid, Tremont Waters, and Marlon Taylor. I certainly think they have top 25 skill and can hang around the top of the SEC this season, but they need to all be playing as well as they all have shown in flashes. Against Furman, it was the backcourt duo of Mays and Waters shining, combining for 36 points and 10 assists in the win. Waters has been slightly disappointing this year following one of the more underratedly great seasons of last year. His three point percentage has fallen off as has his assist rate, and he's been coming off the bench recently. He needs to improve, as does Reid, who had questions about his motor coming out of high school, and if he can get going, he'll be tough to stop. It'll be interesting to see where LSU finishes in the SEC, although it seems like they'll be up and down all year.
- I want to actually talk about Marquette. This is a very dangerous team, and I would say they are the ultimate "don't let them get hot" team. The Hauser brothers, Joseph Chartouny, and of course Markus Howard can all set the nets on fire from deep, and you can't allow them to get into a shooting grove. However, I was really impressed with Theo John against Buffalo. The big man was great on Friday night as a bruising front court player, especially on the defensive end. He only had 6 points, although he only took 3 shots, but had 9 rebounds, 7 blocks, and 3 assists. If he can provide that sort of defensive effort on a consistent basis, that will be a massive help for a team that is weak on the interior. However, the star of the game that needs to be talked about is Markus Howard. The dude went absolutely unconscious in the second half, scoring 40 in the half, including 24 straight for the Golden Eagles. He may be the best high volume scorer in the nation, and he's put up 45 twice now. He's so dangerous from deep, making 9-13 from range, and absolutely money from the charity Streep, going 12-12 in this one, and shooting 91% from the line. He's excellent and going to go off again, the question is just when.
- When watching UConn against Villanova, mostly the first half, I was reminded that this team can be really dangerous in the American. The main reason why is the talented backcourt Danny Hurley has at their disposal. Jalen Adams, Alterique Gilbert, and Christian Vital are all very talented, and bringing Tarin Smith off the bench is another very good option. Any of the three starters have the ability to torch a team, and having to prepare for all three is nigh impossible. There are very few teams with 3 perimeter defenders capable of guarding all of them, so it's really a case of who are you not going to let beat you. I wouldn't be shocked to see them have a very good season in the American and knock off some of the better teams in that conference. They are the type of team that can go on a run during the conference tournament and earn their way into the tournament late.
- I've been down on Ohio State all year, but I've gotta say, after watching them play an admittedly horrible UCLA team, I came away warming up to the Buckeyes. I've already made my love for Luther Muhammad clear, he's such a great defender and has a steadily improving jump shot and offensive game overall, but Kaleb Wesson is such a great player. He had 15 points and 12 rebounds in the CBS Classic, and I really like his game. He leads the team with 16.4 points a game, and he is a monster in and around the paint. He was key in the Buckeyes turning around their struggles against the zone UCLA through at them in the first half in the middle of the zone, along with the shooting of CJ Jackson. However, I'm not sure how well Ohio State deal with a quality zones overall. I'm not sold on their outside shooting, and we saw them lose at home to the 2-3 zone of Syracuse. The UCLA zone was pretty flimsy, as their entire defense is, so if a Big Ten team wants an advantage over the Buckeyes, I would maybe look to a zone to slow down this team.
- I wanted to give a little mid-major love here to an absolute stud. Ja Morant from Murray State is so incredible and you may have seen his name floating around in NBA draft circles, and for good reason. Against the defense of Auburn, which is pretty darn good, Morant dominated, scoring 26 points, getting 8 rebounds, and dishing out 7 assists. He is a really gifted passer with both hands, and he threw multiple lobs with perfect weight and balance in this one. He does a lot for the Racers (side note: Racers is one of the best nicknames in the sport), and one of the things that impressed me most was his poise and ability to get to the foul line. There was one play where he got a steal and was out in transition and instead of going out of control and potentially getting his shot blocked, kept himself under control and allowed the oncoming defender to foul him for an and-one. It was one of the smartest plays I've seen this year, and one of the reasons Morant has been generating lottery buzz. The games against Belmont in the Ohio Valley are going to be incredibly entertaining, so get ready for those.
- Kentucky came out against North Carolina, and after struggling for the start of the season, they looked like the elite team most, especially me, assumed they would be heading into the season. Two things really impressed me from the Cats. The first was the play of Reid Travis and PJ Washington, and specifically the interplay between the two. The high-low passing between those two was incredible to watch, with Washington racking up 8 assists, most of them to Travis, and Travis getting 3 of his own. They also dominated the frontline of the Tar Heels, grabbing 17 rebounds combined, and keeping Luke Mays and Garrison Brooks relatively quiet for the majority of the game. I kind of questioned how those two guys, who can't really stretch the floor, would share the floor together, but they look great. The entire team looks a lot better as John Calipari has gotten his rotation sorted out and players appear a lot more comfortable in their roles. The one guy who clearly looks much better is Ashton Hagans. The point guard is an absolute force on the defensive end and was huge in this one. Probably the biggest difference in the game was the fact that Coby White couldn't get comfortable or get the Tar Heels into their offense because of the constant pressure from Hagans. He had 8(!) steals and harassed White all night, holding him to 8 points on 3-10 shooting. Kentucky is trending upwards in a big way and if they keep this up, they have a legit chance to go to the Final Four.
- Seton Hall flew kinda under the radar in the preseason, but I think they have a NCAA Tournament case. The team has revolved around Myles Powell, and with good reason. He's been balling all year, and continued that with a 27 point performance against Maryland. He's made 40 threes and is shooting 38% from long range, and he doesn't get enough pub for how excellent he is. The Big East is filled with high scoring lead guards, and Powell is near the top of that list. He may not be Markus Howard-level, but he's up there with Kamar Baldwin, Shamorie Ponds, and Phil Booth for the second spot. I've always been really impressed with the other Myles, Myles Cale. He needed to take a step forward this year after they lost a lot of production, and he's done just that. He's scoring 9.7 points a game, but he's stepped up in big games with 17 against Kentucky and 23 in the game against Maryland. He's a better shooter than his 36.6% rating, and he will play Robin to Powell's Batman, and I think that combo will win them enough Big East games to get them into March Madness.
- Maryland is a team that still hasn't figured out it's identity yet for some reason. To me, it's clear that this team needs to play through their bigs. Bruno Fernando and Jalen Smith are both really good and throw in Anthony Cowan as a really good point guard who can feed them, shoot it well, and blow buy his man, and I think he's super underrated. But still, it seemed like Aaron Wiggins, Eric Ayala, and Cowan were chucking up a lot of threes instead of looking to feed their two talented bigs. Fernando finished with 19 and 10 and Smith had 14 and 8. Those are two of the three most talented players on the roster and it seems like they aren't getting enough touches. Teams succeed by doing what they do well, and until Mark Turgeon gets the ball in the hands of his bigs more often, then I don't think Maryland can hit their ceiling.
- Montana really impressed me with their play against South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits are really good, but they looked pretty average against the Grizzlies. They got lit up by Mike Daum, but everybody gets lit up by Mike Daum. I think they did a really good job on David Jenkins and Tevin King when they were handling the ball and made them uncomfortable with some very physical defense. They forced 12 turnovers and really took this team out of their rhythm offensively, which is pretty hard to do. On the other end, they have some weapons, as they returned most of the pieces from a tournament team last season. Michael Oguine was excellent, scoring 23 points on 4 made threes and had 9 rebounds. Ahmaad Rorie was also really good with 16 points and 6 assists and I thought Oregon State transfer Kendal Manuel was great, providing 11 points on 3 made threes of the bench. They certainly seem like a dangerous 12 seed, and if South Dakota State slides to a lower seed than they have been, they will be incredibly dangerous.
- Let's talk about the Arizona State Sun Devils. They got a win over Kansas, and yet they never really seemed in control of the game. I still really like this team and they are the best team in the Pac-12 by far. When they can get out and run, they look really dangerous. It fits basically the entire roster, with Lu Dort, Zylan Cheatham, Remy Martin, Rob Edwards, and Taeshon Cherry all look really good on the break, and they are one of the fastest teams in the country according to KenPom. I do think Remy Martin could improve, however. I remember his game in Lawrence last year when he looked excellent against Kansas, and he seemed poised to step in and fill the shoes of Shannon Evans and Tra Holder. However, he hasn't been as good as I thought this year, but he's been improving recently. I won't say he needs to play better during conference play, since the conference is awful, but I would like to see him improve to get this team towards their ceiling.
- As for Kansas, I want to start with the good. Dedric Lawson is a goddamn monster. He had 30 points and 14 rebounds, and that was with the Sun Devils really keying in on him during the second half, sending double teams at him almost every time he touched the ball. Jayhawk fans also shouldn't overreact too much to this loss as they were missing big man Udoka Azubuike, who is really key to this team. But man, the perimeter play needs to improve. Lagerald Vick has been good, but pretty inefficient, and Devon Dotson has actually been very good at the point guard spot, but he's not a big time scorer. Marcus Garrett is a non-factor offensively, Charlie Moore hasn't adjusted at all, and the major issue has really been the lackluster play of Quentin Grimes. Ever since the Michigan State game, he has disappeared offensively. And I don't want to keep hating on the kid, there is clearly talent there, but without Doke in the lineup, they need another scorer, and Grimes hasn't stepped up like I though he would've. He'll need to find his game since the Big 12 is a gauntlet, and a capable off-ball shooter to space the floor for Azubuike and Lawson would go a really long way to making this team one of the elites in the country, because right now, they just aren't there.
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