Skip to main content

The Fast Break 12/17/18

I have another edition of The Fast Break, where I give my thoughts on what I've seen recently in college basketball. It's been a pretty exciting week in college basketball, and there were plenty of things to talk about, so I hope you enjoy and let me know your thoughts on Twitter @ThreePointRange

What I Saw
- As conference play approaches, one of the team's that has impressed me the most has been Tennessee. I knew they were going to be good, they returned basically their entire roster after winning the SEC last year, but I thought they were going to be more in that second tier of teams in the 7-15 range, but instead they've been elite. They possess an 8-1 record and are third in my top 25 and feature wins over Louisville, Gonzaga, and Memphis, with their only loss coming to Kansas on a neutral floor in overtime. The main difference to me from last year to this year has been their offense. They finished 36 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency last season, but are currently sitting at 10 this year. Admiral Schofield has turned into a scoring machines, averaging 19 points a game, which is 5 more than he did last season, and Grant Williams has also become more dynamic offensively, expanding his range and offering more than just a bruising presence on the interior. Their defense has dropped from 6 to 18, but I still feel very confident that they can matchup with anyone on that end, especially with the emergence of Yves Pons as a consistent role player. Make no mistake: this team is a national title contender and should be considered the favorites to win the SEC this season.

- Villanova has had a pretty disappointing season in just about every way. They are struggling on the court, currently sitting at 8-4 with losses to Furman and Penn, there is off the court drama with star freshman Jahvon Quinerly, and things have overall fallen off a cliff after a national title victory last season. The thing that stands out to me is this team has the talent to win games. Their offense isn't as good as it was last year, which isn't shocking. Last year's offense was incredible, one of the best in the past 10 years, and while they have been worse this season, they sit at eleventh on KenPom. When they can run their offensive sets in a comfortable manner, they look pretty good and look like they'll compete in the Big East. When they face good defenses like Michigan, they look pretty helpless, but I think their offense will be alright on the whole this year. The real problem has been the defense. They rank 59 in KenPom, which is well below the level they need to be at. They have never been known as an elite defensive unit, but last season they finished 11, which was an underrated reason they were great last year. Just with the eye test, Villanova doesn't seem capable of stopping anyone. I think that's what will hold them back in a big way this year, more so than any perceived offensive problems.

- Kansas is undefeated by the skin of their teeth. They have won 4 of their last 5 games by 6 points or less, and two of those games came against Stanford and New Mexico State. I think they can occasionally fall in love with shooting the three at times, which takes them out of their offensive flow, but they rank at number 7 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom, and have a ton of talent. To be fair to them, Udoka Azubuike has been dealing with injuries for the majority of the season, and he's a big portion of that team, no pun intended. I really want to talk about Dedric Lawson and Lagerald Vick. These two guys are basically carrying the team at this point, averaging 37.8 combined points, and paired up for 57 of the 74 points Kansas scored against Nova this weekend. Lawson is a monster from the elbow in, and Vick has emerged as a star out of nowhere. He's shooting 53.3% from three so far this year, and he's stepped up whenever the team has needed him, and they've needed him quite a lot. A large reason why has been the poor play of Quentin Grimes. He was the tenth ranked prospect coming into the season, and he has scored in double digits three times, and only once after the first two games. His game against Villanova was particularly bad, scoring 1 point, not making a shot from the field, and committing 3 turnovers and 3 fouls in 14 minutes. He'll need to step up for this team to reach their ceiling, and if not, I think he'll see a lack of playing time come Big 12 play, as Marcus Garrett offers more on the defensive end, and may be useful as a secondary ball handler. They need to figure a lot of things out heading into a game against a good Arizona State team and nearing conference play.

- Prior to the 2017 season, Luke Yaklich was hired as an assistant head coach at Michigan. The year prior, he was the associate head coach at Illinois State, and was instrumental in turning them into a top 20 defensive unit. At Michigan, he helped transform a team who finished 69 the year prior in adjusted defensive efficiency into the third best unit in the country. He was, for all intents and purposes, a defensive coordinator. John Beilein identified his weakness, coaching defense, and hired to help cover that. Jim Boeheim needs an offensive coordinator on his bench. The Orange have been pretty bad on the offensive end, with their only form of effective offense thus far has been getting buckets in transition and letting Tyus Battle take over games. That's about it. Their defense is good, as it always is, and Boeheim is doing a good job of recruiting to and teaching the 2-3 zone. However, the rest of his coaches are sort of a Boeheim echo chamber, with three Syracuse alumni making up his assistant coaches. And it quite simply isn't working. The Orange lost to Old Dominion over the weekend, and it honestly wasn't that shocking. I haven't seen them look great at any point this season on the offensive end, and as a Syracuse student I've seen all of their games. The offense is honestly painful to watch. They basically have one guy going in isolation while the other four stand and watch. If he can't beat his man, he'll pass it off and another guy goes one on one. They have the talent, and it's maddening to watch it go to waste with no real offensive system. They run very few on the ball screens, and basically no off the ball screens, which is ridiculous for the Division I level. It really doesn't help that their two main centers, Pascal Chukwu and Bourama Sidibe, are basically zeroes on the offensive end and Chukwu especially can barely set a solid screen. Put Tyus Battle and Oshae Brissett in a pick and roll situation. Let Elijah Hughes run of screens. Buddy Boeheim has been a disappointment to many this year. At the moment, he's a pure shooter in an offense that relies on players creating their own shot. I would love to see a John Beilein or Rick Byrd disciple come in and institute an actual offense for the Orange, and then they might just be a really good team.

- The Purdue Boilermakers are quite simply not a good basketball team. They have one elite player in Carsen Edwards, and that's about it. Nojel Eastern is a solid defensive player but a zero offensively, Ryan Kline is Dakota Mathias except worse, Matt Haarms can't really do anything on the offensive end, and in the end, this team isn't good enough to play with high-major competition, especially really good competition. They lost to Virginia Tech, Florida State, Michigan, Texas, and Notre Dame, the latter two teams I don't even think are that good, and they couldn't even knock off Texas with Edwards dropping 40. Their best wins are over Davidson on a neutral court, who may not even make the tournament, and Maryland at home by 2. They are somehow 17 in KenPom's rankings, which is absurd for a 6-5 team that hasn't proven themselves at all. I think they will struggle with Belmont next weekend in their last game before conference play, and quite honestly, I don't think this team, given how they have played thus far, will make the tournament.

- Syracuse is my favorite team in the country. It's the school I attend, so I am all about the Orange. I also love Michigan, I grew up rooting for the them and I think they have one of the best teams in the country. But after them, there is a group of teams I just love to watch, and there may not be one I like more than North Carolina State. They are currently 9-1, with their only loss being by 4 to Wisconsin, and at the moment they don't have any premier wins, but man, whenever I watch the Wolf Pack, I love what I see. They press, they get up and down, they force turnovers, and they have a pretty good offense in the half court, largely thanks to Markell Johnson and Braxton Beverly, two point guards who are good playmakers. Torin Dorn has been great this season as well, and this is a very deep squad, with 11 guys who get minutes. They are currently shooting 40.7% from three, and I see no reason that should change. I really love this team and I think they will surprise some people come ACC play.

- Rutgers is going to get out of the bottom of the Big Ten, if not this year, then next year. Honestly, the loss to Fordham is really bad and pretty shocking, but other than that, they've really impressed me this year. They played close with Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Seton Hall, and they have a legitimately good defense. They're going to win some games in the Big Ten this year, I really believe that they can out grind teams on the defensive end and do just enough offensively. My dad, a RU alum, has been saying that they can't let the games get out of the 50s, and I agree with him. Rutgers hasn't won a game where their opponents scored over 70 points this year, and I don't think they can outscore pretty much anybody. But, if they buckle down on the defensive end and do the little things right, I don't see why they can't win 4-6 games in Big Ten play, and maybe knock off one of the elites in the country.

- How about the game Juwan Morgan had against Butler? It sort of flew under the radar somehow, but he went off at the Crossroads Classic. 35 points on 12-14 shooting, including a perfect 8-8 from 2 and 7-7 from the foul line, and he completely dominated a weak front line for the Bulldogs. He put in a great performance and in a game when Romeo Langford was fairly quiet, although the numbers say otherwise, he was super key in getting Indiana in a position where they could win it on a huge shot. And what a shot it was from Rob Phinisee. He's been good all season for the Hoosiers, taking over the point guard spot as a freshman, and he's given them a lot of really good minutes. The shot was absurd, and credit to him for making it, but his play overall has really helped Indiana win the close games they've been playing recently.

- A lot was made about the Kentucky Wildcats after their overtime loss to Seton Hall. People were wondering if John Calipari had lost his touch on the recruiting trail, and Quade Green transferred away from the program. That's why I think their win over Utah last weekend was a big statement. Is Utah great? No, they're a lower tier team in a bad Pac-12. However, Kentucky beat them by 27 points and looked the best I've seen them play. The biggest reason for that, in my mind, was Keldon Johnson taking over the offense. He scored 24 points and went 8-9 from the field as well as making both of his free throws. He made 6 of his 7 attempts from three, which is pretty huge for a team that needs outside shooting, and I think the more they play through him, the more success the Wildcats will have. It will allow more floor spacing for Reid Travis and PJ Washington to operate, take some pressure of off Ashton Hagans and Immanuel Quickley handling the ball, and let Tyler Herro, who finally played well against Utah, be a more secondary scoring option. I really like Johnson, I think he's one of the best freshmen in the country, and I can see him taking over Kentucky's team as SEC play progresses.

- One of the most fun games I watched recently was UCLA and Belmont. I want to talk about the Bruins, because they are a really interesting team to me. They really remind me a lot of that Lonzo Ball UCLA team except worse. Jaylen Hands and Kris Wilkes are legit good players, finally living up to their recruiting promise from a year ago. They like to run in transition, and are really good when they do. Moses Brown has been pretty good, especially on the defensive end and the glass, but outside of him, the defense isn't very good. I think the best way to describe UCLA is they are a girl that looks really great from a distance, but then you get close and you realize she is not attractive. Watching UCLA's offense is fun, they are high octane, they get up threes, and they have some really great players in Hands, Wilkes, Brown, and Cody Riley and Prince Ali are pretty good too. However, they turn the ball over too much, and play some flat out bad defense at times. They look good if you watch casually, but when you really look, this team is pretty ugly.

- Let's talk about the other Bruins: Belmont is really good. Their offense is beautiful to watch, and I love watching them play. Rick Byrd is one of the best coaches in the country, and I think they have one of the best mid-major rosters in the country. I'm not going to go too far into it, as I have a longer post planned about some mid-majors, but Dylan Windler is a star and they've had some really great role players emerge. I really like Grayson Murphy at the point, but I think Kevin McClain needs a little more credit. He had 20 against UCLA, and he's an excellent shooter and scorer. He consistently scores in double digits, and he's a perfect complimentary scorer alongside Windler. As good as they are, they may miss out on the NCAA Tournament. They share the Ohio Valley with Murray State, who has a star and potential lottery pick in Ja Morant. They only match up once, and Belmont will likey need to win that game on the road as well as beat Purdue in West Lafayette to have a chance, and likely will need to run the table in the OVC, maybe picking up one loss. The Green Bay loss really hurt them, but they have some solid wins, including a sweep of Lipscomb, so I think an at-large is attainable, but a lot needs to break right for the Bruins.

- North Carolina really kind of surprised me with how well they played against Gonzaga. I knew their offense was good, but that Michigan loss was still on my mind, and they went out and dominated Gonzaga. They looked pretty good defensively, making the Zags get their buckets inefficiently. It was also nice to see Luke Made play really well, as he had been disappointing up to this point, and he set a season high in rebounds with 16 while getting 20 points, the most since the opener against Wofford. His production has been picked top by Cameron Johnson, who is playing like an All-American thus far. He had 25 points, and he's a deadeye from deep, going 6-8 from deep and shooting nearly 50% from deep. He's really emerged as an excellent scorer for the Tar Heels, and picked up a lot of slack. He's basically keeping Nassir Little out of the starting lineup with his play, which isn't easy, and I think this team is beginning to approach their ceiling.

- I want to talk about another excellent offensive performance out of the ACC in the Virginia Tech Hokies. This team rarely gets talked about, despite being 13 in my top 25 as well as the AP rankings, and they are currently top 10 overall in KenPom's rankings, and sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency. They feature wins over Purdue on a neutral court, which despite my hatred for Purdue this year will hold weight given their lofty status, and they just beat Washington in Atlantic City by 12 points in a game they dominated the entire way. Their lone loss came against Penn State by 1, and that was easily the worst they have looked all year. I knew about Justin Robinson, who has been good again this season, scoring 14.5 points and getting 6 assists a game, but it's Nickeil Alexander-Walker who has really been a standout. He leads the team in scoring with 18.3 points a game, and he had 24 against Washington, the second most of the season behind his 25 point performance against Purdue. He's been a good shooter thus far, and he's really developed into a very good wing player and scorer for the Hokies.

- I had one big question surrounding Mississippi State coming into the year: can they shoot the ball? And if their last two games are anything to go by, the answer is a resounding yes. They went 19-30 from deep in their win over Clemson, which equates to 63.3%, and then against Cincinnati went 12-23 or 52.2% on their threes. Lamar Peters has been leading the charge, making 8-11 against Clemson before going 3-8 from deep against Cincy. He also made 8 threes prior to the Clemson game against McNeese State, and sits at 43% on the year. He is also a really good floor general, with 9 assists against the Bearcats. They have a really nice group of players and they are going to be a team no one really talks about that succeeds in the SEC and is a scary matchup come March.

- One team that has been pretty surprising is Houston. I was worried about how good they were going to be after Rob Gray left, but they are undefeated at the moment and playing really well, with wins over LSU and Saint Louis this past week. I finally got a chance to watch their full game against SLU, and I was impressed. I really like the decision by Kelvin Sampson to double team the post, as Carte'Are Gordon was often the recipient and was forced to make passes out of the post, and the Bilikens aren't a great shooting team, so I thought that was a great defensive gameplay. On the other end, Dejon Jarreau was a clear standout. He consistently attacked the rim, and is a very athletic guard. I also really liked what I saw from Galen Robinson, who is an excellent ball handler and passer. He was in some foul trouble, so he wasn't on the court that much, but he is quick and leads the team in transition, and I think he's the kind of player that is super underrated overall, but is very key to the Cougars' success. Jarreau has been battling injuries all season, and I think lineups with Robinson, Jarreau, Corey Davis, Armani Brooks, and a big, I liked what I saw from Brison Gresham and Fabian white, can be really good and I think they are going to be at the top of the AAC all season long.

- Nebraska might be the most underrated team in the country at the moment. They are just a really good basketball team, and they lost on a neutral court to Texas Tech, who is very good, and at Minnesota, which admittedly isn't great. However, they also blew out Seton Hall, beat Clemson, Creighton, and most recently Oklahoma State. James Palmer is really just an excellent scorer and all around player, and doesn't get enough national attention. He's scored 29 against the Cowboys, which followed up a 30 point performance against Creighton. He's caught fire from deep recently, which has given his game a new dimension, which has to be terrifying for opponents. The emergence of Thomas Allen is also really big, as he gives the Huskers a good fifth starter to go along with Palmer, Glynn Watson, Isaac Copeland, and Isaiah Roby. Allen set a new career high with 18 against Creighton, while getting 14 against Oklahoma State. He has a reputation as a good shooter, which will help open lanes for Palmer to attack, and he's a really great fit for Nebraska.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

ACC Preview

After a long summer, I have returned to the college basketball blogging game. I apologize for taking such a long time off, but I've been keeping up with everything in the world of college basketball, and I'm excited to get back into the swing of things. We start off my preseason coverage with a league that is near and dear to my heart, the ACC. For those of you who don't know, I'm a Syracuse student and fan, but I try not to let my bias get in the way of my journalistic integrity. I'll have tiered rankings, but the order I give is the order I expect them to finish. As for the ACC itself, after years of dominance, this season figures to be a bit of a down one, with the bottom half of the conference being very weak. As always, let me know your thoughts on the conference and where you may disagree with my predictions on Twitter @ThreePointRange, and be sure to check back throughout the next few days for my previews for the other conferences. The Contenders 1. Du

Virginia Season Preview

2022-23 Record: 25-8, 15-5 ACC (1st) Coach: Tony Bennett, 15th Season Departures: Armaan Franklin, G (Graduation) Jayden Gardner, F (Graduation) Kihei Clark, G (Graduation) Ben Vander Plas, F (Graduation) Kadin Shedrick, C (Transfer) Francisco Caffaro, C (Transfer) Isaac Traudt, F (Transfer) Arrivals: Dante Harris, G (Transfer from Georgetown) Andrew Rohde, W (Transfer from St. Thomas) Jacob Groves, F (Transfer from Oklahoma) Jordan Minor, F (Transfer from Merrimack) Elijah Gertrude, G (Freshman) Blake Buchanon, F (Freshman) Anthony Robinson, C (Freshman) Projected Starting Lineup PG: Reece Beekman SG: Isaac McKneely SF: Andrew Rohde PF: Ryan Dunn C: Jordan Minor Roster Breakdown The Cavaliers have won the ACC regular season championship in four of the last six years, and Tony Bennett will be hoping to maintain that level while losing some program stalwarts, like Kihei Clark  and Jayden Gardner . Four of the five starters from last season have departed the program, but point guard Reec

Predictions for the Remaining Transfers

As we move into June, many of the rosters in college basketball have really begun to take shape. There are very few impact recruits left, and the deadline for withdrawing from the NBA Draft has passed, so rosters are really shaping up. However, there are a few impact transfers still available, both sit out guys and graduate transfers, so I decided to break down where they might land. Be sure to follow me on Twitter @ThreePointRange, and let me know what you think of these destinations, and what schools you think these players should go to. Sit Out Players Devonaire Doutrive, SG, Arizona A top 75 player coming out of high school last year, Doutrive struggled to find playing time with the Wildcats in year one and elected to transfer out of the program in search of greener pastures. Despite underwhelming during his time in Tuscon, there should be a long line of schools interested in bringing him into the program. He could return home to Texas and play for Houston, who need guard he