Pac-12 Preview

The Pac-12 was the worst Power 6 league last year, only sending three teams to the tournament, and things don’t look much better this year. While there are some good teams near the top of the league, the bottom half isn’t great and should drag the whole league down.

Team Previews

1. Oregon

Best Case Scenario: After a disappointing year by the Duck’s standards last year, Dana Altman brings in a stacked recruiting class that should get the Ducks back to the top of the Pac-12. The team is led by Final Four holdover Payton Pritchard, who runs the offense for the Ducks along with providing valuable floor spacing. He’ll be in charge of keeping everyone involved, which won’t be easy. He’ll be joined in the backcourt by Victor Bailey Jr., who showcases his talent more regularly as a sophomore, Ehab Amin, an excellent defensive player coming from Texas A&M Corpus Christi, and Will Richardson, a top 50 freshman and excellent scorer. They could also see minutes at the 3 as star freshman Louis King recovers from a meniscus injury, but when he’s healthy, he’s a developed scorer and has the potential to be very good on the defensive end. The frontcourt may feature the best shot blocking combo in the country with Kenny Wooten- who blocked 2.6 shots last season- and highly regarded freshman Bol Bol. They should compliment each other well offensively, with Wooten being more of a high energy, rim running type and Bol displaying an outside shooting touch. Fellow freshmen Francis Okoro and Miles Norris also figure to see minutes, along with stretch four Paul White. With a roster overflowing with talent, Altman mixes and matches some deadly combos, and the Ducks are a top 10 team.

Worst Case Scenario: Oregon is unable to find the right lineup combinations and lots of the players don’t work together. Amin learns quickly that the Southland and Pac-12 are very different, and struggles against better competition defensively. Bailey doesn’t get any better on either end, and Richardson isn’t able to score as easily against a Power 6 defense. King’s injury continues to keep him out and limit him when he is on the court. Wooten is still very limited offensively, making it hard to keep him on the court. Bol drifts in and out of games, looking disinterested half the time, which was a major issue for him in high school. The bench bigs offer little, especially Okoro who reclassified and looks like he needs an extra year of high school. There are too many pieces to use, and finding the right lineups proves difficult for Altman. The team looks dysfunctional as different players attempt to get theirs, and Oregon ends up closer to the bubble than the top 25.

My Take: I’m really high on Oregon and I think they’re going to be excellent this season. Pritchard is excellent and should do so much for this team on and off the court. The freshman class is ridiculous, with all five being ranked in the top 75 by 247Sports. Their play will determine how well this team does. While players like Bailey and Wooten are important, they will provide defensive value no matter what. Players like Richardson and Norris need to make immediate impacts off the bench in order for Oregon to succeed. The health of King will be a major factor, as will Bol’s motor. I believe in Bol stepping up this season, and once King is healthy, the Ducks will be tough to stop. They should win the Pac 12 this season.

2. Washington

Best Case Scenario: The Huskies continue their success in year 2 under Mike Hopkins. They continue to play a 2-3 zone, which continues to work excellent thanks to players like Jaylen Nowell and Matisse Thybulle, whose length and athleticism fits perfect into that system. Thybulle is especially a standout on the defensive end and his continued development offensively-especially with three point shooting- helps the offense run much smoother. Nowell should be the star of the show offensively who can score in a variety of ways and will be nearly unstoppable if his three point shot becomes more consistent. He’ll be joined in the backcourt by David Crisp, who took a step back last year, but as is the case with seemingly everyone on the roster, needs to improve his jump shot to be more consistent. The Huskies also return a strong frontcourt, led by Noah Dickerson, who could average a double double given how excellent he is on the glass. He’ll be joined by Sam Timmons in the center of the zone, a solid, if uninspiring player. The incoming freshman class should help, with Bryan Penn-Johnson being another good center option, Elijah Hardy acting as more of a true point guard than Crisp, who is more of a score-first player, and Jamal Bey providing good scoring from the wing. The Huskies are one of the top 25 teams all season on their way to a Pac-12 championship.
Worst Case Scenario: The zone isn’t as effective as it was last season and Washington’s defense takes a step back. WIthout improvements from Crisp or Norwell, the outside shooting remains a problem for Washington. Thybulle struggles offensively, and the lack of spacing hurts Dickerson and he struggles without the requisite space he needs to operate. Timmins offers very little outside of being a large body, and Hopkins has to rely on freshmen that aren’t ready to provide major minutes. The offense is a major issue all year and Washington isn’t a Pac-12 contender and is fighting for their tournament lives late in the year.

My Take: I really, really like this team. I think Nowell and Dickerson is as good as a 1-2 punch as you’ll find in the league, and they should both be very good this year. Thybulle is probably the best defender in the conference and one of the best in the entire nation. I’m not a huge fan of Crisp, but I really like the incoming freshman class and returning sophomore Naz Carter is an excellent athlete who could breakout this year. I think Washington will be in the 15-25 range for most of the season.

3. UCLA

Best Case Scenario: Steve Alford has assembled one of the most talented rosters in the country, and it really shows. Although his current recruiting class will be hampered by injuries to Shareef O’ Neal and Tyger Campbell, they should be fine given they bring back nearly everyone from last season’s fifth ranked recruiting class, and I don’t think the loss of LiAngelo Ball hurts this team too much. Jaylen Hands seizes the point guard role previously filled by Lonzo and Aaron Holiday, and is electric in his second season. His combination of athleticism, vision, and ball handling makes him great in the open court, which fits in perfectly with how UCLA likes to play, and he has the size and skills to be a very good defender. The two guard will be manned by Prince Ali, who is even better with more minutes, along with freshmen David Singleton and Jules Bernard. Kris Wilkes is one of the best players in the Pac-12 in his sophomore season, and he thrives as a number 1 option, scoring seemingly at will from anywhere on the court along with playing very good defense. The frontcourt has three new faces, with Jalen Hill and Cody Riley becoming eligible after last season’s fiasco with Liangelo, and they should both see major minutes in the frontcourt thanks to their offensive skill, alongside freshman center Moses Brown, who emerges as an elite rim protector. Alex Olesinski and Chris Smith are back from last year and also factor into the rotation. With an overflow of a talent, the Bruins look great on both ends and are the Pac-12 champions and a top 15 team.
Worst Case Scenario: The reason Kentucky is able to have insane amounts of talent every year is John Calipari gets everyone to buy into their role in the system and make the team a cohesive unit. Steve Alford is unable to do that and UCLA is a mess this year. Hands and Wilkes both want to be “the guy” and often take poor shots with the hope of NCAA scouts. The lack of a backup point guard is also a huge problem as Hands has to play huge minutes every night. Ali is nothing more than a role player and the freshmen guards provide little other than athleticism, which this roster already has. Riley and Hill look like they haven’t played against real competition in a year, and Brown’s motor remains a major question and he never looks like he wants to be a good defender. No one on the roster does, as a matter of fact, and UCLA is once again dreadful on the defensive end. With everyone trying to get theirs on offense and playing no defense, UCLA once again ends up on the bubble.

My Take: There’s a lot to like about this roster. Hands and Wilkes are immensely talented and should thrive in larger roles this season. I also really like Riley and Hill and they should actually be pretty good although they may always be associated with the Ball family. There is also a lot to not like. Alford’s teams are allergic to defense, and it seems unlikely that anything will change this year. Brown enters with questions about how hard he will play. They will be relying on major contributions from lots of inexperienced players, and there doesn’t seem to be any leaders on the team. In the open court, UCLA will be excellent, but I don’t know if this talent will gel together well enough to put them in the top 25.

4. USC

Best Case Scenario: Just like their rivals, USC has loads of talent. Bennie Boatwright kicks the injury bug this season and stars. He’s a stretch four with loads of athleticism and he can also shoot it well from deep. He’ll be joined in the frontcourt by veteran Nick Rakocevic, a more throwback big with a nice variety of post moves, and he is very effective in the pick and roll. Freshman J’Raan Brooks should also see minutes in the frontcourt rotation. The wing is extremely crowded, with former top recruits Shaq Aaron, Charles O'Bannon Jr., and Jordan Usher all vying for time. They will have to compete with star freshman Kevin Porter, who has the potential to be the best player on the team thanks to his freakish athleticism and smooth jumper. Duke transfer Derryck Thornton should finally see good minutes at the point, and shooting threat Jonah Matthews will join him in the backcourt, as will freshman Elijah Weaver once he returns from injury. With a deep and talented roster, Andy Enfield gets the Trojans back to being a top 25 team and Pac-12 powerhouse.

Worst Case Scenario: Despite the talent on the roster last season, USC was unable to make the tournament. Something similar happens this year. There is shaky point guard play, as Thornton still looks bad, Matthews isn’t a natural ball handler, and Weaver is unable to get fully healthy. Neither is Boatwright, leaving the majority of the minutes to freshmen and unproven sophomore, which isn’t exactly a recipe for success. None of them breakout, leaving Porter and Rakocevic without a supporting cast. There are flashes of potential, but USC struggles again and misses out on March.

My Take: I may actually like them more than UCLA, although the Bruins have more talent which is why I give them the slight edge. I’m super high on Boatwright, and if he can stay healthy, he will be one of the better players in the country. I also believe that Kevin Porter will also be a star this season, and he should provide some highlight reel plays. I think Thornton can finally fulfill his potential this year and be a good point guard, and Matthews and Rakocevic are solid role players. I do wonder about depth, since I don’t love guys like O’Bannon Jr. and Aaron, but if one of two guys can become good rotation pieces, then USC should have no trouble dancing this year.

5. Arizona St

Best Case Scenario: With a crazy season in which they went undefeated in their non-conference schedule- including a win over Kansas in Phog Allen- and then had an awful conference slate. They lose Tra Holder and Shannon Evans this year, but they should be more consistent this year. Remy Martin comes back to play point, and he should fill the large shoes left behind by the two graduated seniors. He will provide a good amount of scoring and some excellent defense, which was missing at times last season. He’ll be joined by two newcomers in Rob Edwards, a transfer from Cleveland State, and Luguentz Dort, a top 30 freshmen. They should both also help the defense improve while providing good scoring. The frontcourt should also benefit from less guards on the roster and seeing more time on the floor. Romello White, De’Quon Lake, and Mickey Mitchell all come back for the Sun Devils and they should all be good. White got the most playing time last season, but Lake was more efficient and they should both put up good numbers on the boards. Mitchell is more of a shooter and could see minutes in the backcourt as well. Freshman Taeshon Cherry has very upside as a more athletic big and San Diego State transfer Zylan Cheatham will provide a similar skill set. With improved depth and defense, Arizona State is back into the tournament.
Worst Case Scenario: Holder, Evans, and Kodi Justice played a lot of minutes and scored a lot of points for Bobby Hurley’s team. He’s going to change the way his team plays this year to include more wings, and they are unable to come close to what those three did, especially shooting from deep. It’s a problem all year for Arizona State as only Martin and Mitchell are proven shooters from last year’s team. Martin isn’t as good with a larger share of the offense, leaving the point guard position up in the air, especially with Edwards struggling with the jump in competition. The same goes for the freshmen, who are inconsistent all season. The big men don’t have the requisite skill to be the focal point of the offense, and Arizona State looks like the team we saw in the second half of the season, and they miss out on March this year.

My Take: I’m a pretty big fan of this team and I think they have a good year. I’m a big fan of Remy Martin and I think he’ll be great this year. I also really like the recruiting class, especially Cherry, who could be a star right away. The frontcourt should also be really could, with White and Lake both being very good this season. I certainly see them as a tournament team, but they aren’t a lock and will be close to the bubble.

6. Arizona

Best Case Scenario: Arizona puts an up and down season behind them and with a new group of players, reemerges as a threat in the Pac-12. With two straight classes of highly regarded recruits looking to prove themselves, plus a solid group of transfers, the Wildcats look completely different than in year’s past. Leading the offense will be either freshman Brandon Williams or Samford grad transfer Justin Coleman. Williams should fit better into Miller’s system thanks to his ability to score in the lane and on the defensive end, although Coleman is more of a pass-first player and should be able to set up his teammates well. Also in the backcourt are freshman Devonaire Doutrive, former top 50 recruit Brandon Randolph, and veteran Dylan Smith. Randolph should get minutes thanks to his defensive ability, and he is probably the farthest along offensively. He really steps up and the other two provide solid minutes off the bench. Emmanuel Akot has a similar season to Randolph with a nice breakout, especially on the offensive end, and those two are a good pairing on the wing. In the frontcourt, Pitt transfer Ryan Luther provides floor spacing, while Duke transfer Chase Jeter finally lives up to his potential, and Ira Lee is effective off the bench. With an improved defense and some guys thriving with more minutes, Arizona is back into the NCAA Tournament.
Worst Case Scenario: With a large group of players who have very little experience at the D-I level, Arizona struggles mightily. Only Ryan Luther has consistently played large minutes for a Power 6 program, and he was on a Pitt team that didn’t win a game in the ACC last year. That doesn’t bode well for Arizona this year, and they look bad. Despite the recruiting ranking of many of their players, none of them look ready to face high level competition. There is some improvement on the defensive end, but it’s the offensive end where the Wildcats really look bad without anyone who can create their own offense and limited floor spacing. It’s a long year in Tucson as Arizona sinks to the bottom of the Pac-12

My Take: I don’t really like this team at all. There are some alright pieces here, but no one that stands out as a star. Perhaps there are some players who make sophomore leads, and I do like Randolph as a breakout candidate, along with Luther and Williams as solid role players, but overall the offense doesn’t make me excited. Defensively, Sean Miller should be able to get his team playing well, and I think they’ll grind out some wins on that end. They could end up on the bubble, but I don’t think Arizona makes it to March.

7. Stanford

Best Case Scenario: The Cardinal have one of the youngest and most intriguing rosters in the country. With their second consecutive top 20 recruiting class, Stanford will have a lot of potential on the roster, headlined by a deep and talented backcourt. Daejon Davis continues to do a little bit of everything for Stanford at the point guard position. Freshman Cormac Ryan should help with the ball handling while providing a shooting threat that’s been missing from the team. Fellow freshman Bryce Wills should push Marcus Sheffield for minutes after Sheffield missed all of last season injured. Bigger wing KZ Okpala continues to breakout this year, emerging into a excellent scorer from the small forward position, especially with an improvement in his three point shooting. Oscar da Silva has a breakout as an athletic power forward with the ability to stretch the floor alongside senior Josh Sharma. With freshmen Keenan Fitzmorris and Jaiden Delaurie also getting some frontcourt minutes, there is plenty of production to replace Reid Travis. Stanford has plenty of long, switchable pieces on defense and they look much improved on that end. With some continued improvement from highly regarded prospects, the Cardinals end up on the right side of the bubble.

Worst Case Scenario: Quite simply, most of their breakout candidates just don’t break out. Davis and Okpala give similar production to last year, which isn’t necessarily bad, but it’s not enough to help Stanford take a step forward. Sharma looks like the average player he’s looked like for the rest of his college career and doesn’t provide much on the court. Da Silva fails to turn his production with the German youth teams into production with the Cardinal, and none of the freshmen are ready to come in and contribute. There is a distinct lack of floor spacing as players like da Silva regress from the 56% he shot last year, and Stanford is unable to get it done offensively once again. They finish near the bottom of the conference.

My Take: I’m normally not a fan of teams relying on breakout seasons from a lot of players. However, I really like Stanford’s group. I think Davis and Okpala can both take steps forward, which isn’t that big of a stretch given how well they played last year and the production lost. I also really like Oscar da Silva and I think he’ll have a really good season. Partner that will Wills and Ryan who should both step right into the rotation, and you’ve got a pretty good team. I think they can hang around on the bubble but they seem destined for the NIT this year. Look out for Stanford in years to come with the quality of recruits Jerod Haase is bringing in.

8. Colorado

Best Case Scenario: The Buffaloes have a good, young core that all take a step forward together this year. McKinley Wright really flew under the radar nationally last season, but he was excellent as a freshman, averaging 14.2 points, 5.5 assists, 4.7 rebounds, and a steal per game. He’ll once again lead the team on offense. He’ll be aided by some of his classmates taking steps forward this season. D’Shawn Schwartz and Tyler Bey are both breakout candidates and they should fit right into Tad Boyle’s man to man defense. Junior Lucas Siewert will most likely start at the five after Dallas Walton went down for the year with an injury. He’ll provide a different look, being a better shooter but much worse defensively. Namon Wright will join McKinley in the backcourt and he should be another solid shooter and defender for the Bufs. JuCo transfer Shane Gatling will also get minutes at point guard, allowing the star sophomore to play off the ball as a pure scorer. With a stout defense and an improved offense, Colorado is one of the best teams in the conference and makes the tournament this season.

Worst Case Scenario: No one emerges around Wright as a legitimate second option. Without help, his efficiency plummets and he is nowhere nears as good as he was last season. The loss of George King and Walton leaves Colorado very thin in the frontcourt, and Siewert is forced to play their despite not being physically suited for massive minutes against bigger bodies. None of the wing plays, specifically Bey and Schwartz, don’t develop and they hurt the already suspect floor spacing. Gatling is ineffective, and no freshmen make any sort of impact. There is very little depth or shooting, and Colorado struggles mightily.

My Take: Before Walton got hurt, I thought that Colorado could be a bubble team this year. But his loss will really hurt them defensively and leaves basically no rim protection or paint presence on either side of the ball. McKinley Wright should once again be ridiculous and make this team worth watching. I like Bey and Schwartz and they could definitely take steps forward this year. I see the Buffaloes as a NIT team this season, but like Stanford have bright days ahead.

9. Utah

Best Case Scenario: The Utes have one of the most underrated coaches in the country in the other Coach K, Larry Krystkowiak. He’ll keep the Utes in good shape despite losing 4 seniors last year. They’ll be dangerous on offense, as Krystkowiak’s offensive schemes will get clean looks at the basket. This will be great for the backcourt of Sedrick Barefield, Charles Jones Jr, and Parker Van Dyke, who are all talented shooters. This will also help their wings Donnie Tillman and freshmen Timmy Allen, Both Gach, and Vante Hendrix get open lanes to drive as well as taking some of the load off of Barefield and Jones to be facilitators, since they are both more in the combo guard mold. Tillman sees lots of minutes as a smaller four, giving the defense more versatility and skill on the perimeter, as opposed to the two big lineups that Utah sometimes runs. There is still certainly plenty of size, with Jayce Johnson, Idaho State transfer Novak Topalovic and freshman Riley Battin, but look for Coach K to use some smaller sets. Johnson is the next in the line of great Utah big men, and he becomes a reliable option for them in the post. They take the Pac-12 by storm on their way to the bubble.
Worst Case Scenario: Truth be told, there isn’t a ton of talent on this roster. There is just one player who averaged double figures for the Utes last year in Barefield, and lots of their players are pretty unproven. Barefield isn’t able to handle the full responsibilities of being the lead guard and Jones, a JuCo transfer, doesn’t provide much help. He struggles at a higher level, as does Topalovic, who wasn’t even that great in the Big Sky. The freshmen, who are currently projected to carry a fairly large role on the wing, aren’t effective, leaving Utah with little depth. Tillman and Johnson don’t take the steps forward they are expected to and leave the Utes looking for production all year. With an inexperienced roster, Utah goes through lots of growing pains and is towards the bottom of the Pac-12.

My Take: I think Utah will be one of those team that you never know what you’re gonna get. One night they’ll look excellent on both sides of the ball and get an easy victory, the next they’ll miss seemingly every shot and look lost defensively and get blown out. I think Tillman breaks out and I like what I’ve heard about Allen, and I think they’ll be a good wing combo with some good shooters in the backcourt. I’m unsure how productive the center will be and how good they’ll be night to night with consistency, especially on the defensive end, so like the two teams ahead of them, they are better set up for the future than this year.

10. Oregon State

Best Case Scenario: Led by legit star and coach’s son Tres Tinkle, Oregon State surprises a lot of people with a good season. Tinkle is a forward who can do a variety of things on the offensive end, including stretch the floor, drive, and kick it to his teammates. Everything will run through him on that end as he continues to give opposing coaches nightmares when planning for him. He’ll be joined by brothers, and son’s of an assistant coach, Stephen and Ethan Thompson. They’ll hold down the backcourt with good ball handling, and look for Ethan to get to the rim while Stephen knocks down shots from deep. Alfred Hollins emerges as a good role player alongside those three, and helps spur improvement on the defensive end. They also bring in a lot of size in their incoming recruiting class, which should help Tinkle on the glass as well as improve their rim protection. With a better defense and one of the best players in the Pac-12, Oregon State plays their way into tournament contention.

Worst Case Scenario: Tinkle, the Thompsons, and Hollins are all solid players. Tinkle is a star and the other three are pretty good, but other than that, there may not be a legit Pac-12 level player on this roster. Unsurprisingly, that makes things much harder for them to have a successful season. Tinkle tries his best (even in the worst case scenario he’s still an All Pac-12 level player this guy is really good), but the Beavers offer little support. Stephen and Ethan are both plagued by inefficiency, which is really bad for a team that’s relying on them to be really good. Hollins doesn’t make the sophomore lead he needs to on the offensive end, and outside of Tinkle, there’s very little to like on that end. Defensively, it’s even worse, as Oregon State continues to be atrocious on that end. There is one bright spot on this roster, and the rest continues to drag him down to the bottom of the Pac-12.

My Take: Like I said earlier, there are four players that are Pac-12 level. Tinkle, who could play at any program in the country, the Thompson brother, who are both solid guards and should be pretty good this year, and Hollins, who I think will breakthrough and emerge as a very good defender and solid offensive player. Other than that, wow is it bad. They’ll be relying on JuCo transfers and freshmen which is not a recipe for success, especially not in a Power 6 conference. It’s hard to see this team finishing in a position to make the postseason, and unlike some other teams, there isn’t a ton of young talent here.

11. Cal
12. Washington St

My Take: I’m just going to lump these two teams together. If I’m honest, they don’t deserve a full preview due to how bad they will both be this year. There are some bright spots, with a solid sophomore trio of Justice Sueing, Darius McNeil, and Juhwan Harris-Dyson for the Golden Bears, and star Robert Franks along with shooters Carter Skaggs and Viont’e Daniels for Washington State, but outside of that, don’t expect much of anything from either one of these schools. They are both atrocious defensively, and seeing how most of Cal’s offense came from Don Coleman chucking up shots and Marcus Lee and Kingsley Okoroh grabbing rebounds, and none of those three guys are there anymore, as well as Washington State’s primary creator and second best player Malachi Flynn transfering, there isn’t much hope offensively either. I’d recommend skipping the games with these two teams.

Awards

Player of the Year: McKinley Wright, Colorado

Coach of the Year: Mike Hopkins, Washington
Freshman of the Year: Kevin Porter, USC

Newcomer of the Year: Kevin Porter, USC

First Team All Pac 12

G: Payton Pritchard, Oregon
G: McKinley Wright, Colorado
G: Kris Wilkes, UCLA
F: Tres Tinkle, Oregon St
F: Bennie Boatwright, USC

Second Team All Pac 12

G: Jaylen Nowell, Washington
G: Kevin Porter, USC
G: Remy Martin, Arizona St
F: Noah Dickerson, Washington
F: Bol Bol, Oregon

Third Team All Pac 12

G: Jaylen Hands, UCLA

G: Daejon Davis, Stanford

G/F: Matisse Thybulle, Washington

F: Robert Franks, Washington St

F: Ryan Luther, Arizona