Big 12 Preview

After a stellar year last season which saw all 10 teams challenge for a NCAA berth, the Big 12 might look a bit different this year as many of it's stars have left school. It should be another closely contested year in one of the top conferences in the country.

Team Previews

1. Kansas

Best Case Scenario: The Jayhawks continue their unprecedented run of 14 years a top the Big 12 this season. They have a roster overflowing with talent, and a starting five made up of just players on their bench would probably make the NCAA tournament. The backcourt will be entirely different from last season, with freshmen Devon Dotson and Quentin Grimes as well as Cal transfer Charlie Moore doing the majority of the ball handling. Dotson is incredibly quick and a very good facilitator, Moore possesses good playmaking abilities as well as a good jump shot, and Grimes may be their best player this season, a top 10 recruit who is an excellent playmaker, scorer, and defender. The wing has two returners in Lagerald Vick and Marcus Garrett who should possess similar roles to last season, Vick a complementary scorer and Garrett a defensive role player, while also adding KJ Lawson as a transfer. Lawson is incredibly well rounded, and he plays major minutes right away. His brother, Dedric Lawson, who also transfer in from Memphis, might just be the best player on the team, with a variety of skills that allow him to score offensively along with being an excellent rebounder from the 4. He partners well with Udoka Azubuike, which allows Bill Self to play his prefered 2 big system. Mitch Lightfoot, Silvio de Sousa, who might not even be eligible, and David McCormack provide depth in the frontcourt. Kansas dominates on both ends of the floor, and at every position on the court, and holds the #1 ranking for the majority of the season on their way to another Big 12 title.
Worst Case Scenario: There is simply too many mouths to feed for Kansas, and they emerges as a dysfunctional unit. With 3 top 50 freshman, 3 transfer who had major roles at their last program, and two double digit scorers returning from last season’s team, something has to give for the Jayhawks. Bill Self can’t figure out the optimal rotation, and players are unhappy with their roles all season. The team never looks like a cohesive unit, and ends up near the backend of the top 25 at the end of the season.

My Take: This is my preseason #1 in the country. There is a ridiculous amount of talent, paired with an elite coach. With a potential starting 5 of Moore-Grimes-Vick-D. Lawson-Azubuike, there is the requisite amount of playmaking, floor spacing, defense, and rebounding to play with every team in the country. Factor in a crazy amount of depth, and Kansas looks set to win it’s 15th straight Big 12 regular season title.

2. Kansas State

Best Case Scenario: The Wildcats build off an Elite Eight run last season and put together another very successful season. Led by Dean Wade, a versatile forward for can score in the post and shoot it, and might be the best passer on the team, and Barry Brown, an elite two-way guard who can score in a variety of ways and plays excellent defense. They have a very good supporting cast, led by wing Xavier sneed, who is a good shooter and defender, guards Kamau Stokes and Cartier Diarra, who are both good defenders, and Diarra continues to improve offensively and seizes the starting role during a breakout season. Wade is joined in the frontcourt by Makol Mawien, a good shot blocker, and JUCO transfer Austin Trice, who is a very good rebounder. This team should be elite defensively once more and the offense becomes a very good unit and K-State knocks off their in-state rivals en route to a Big 12 championship and top 5 finish.
Worst Case Scenario: Kansas St struggles on the offensive end this season. Wade and Brown draw the primary focus of defenses and struggle with efficiency. No one else emerges as a big scoring threat, so the offense is stagnant for large parts of the year. Diarra and Stokes don’t emerge as legit offensive options on their own. The defense also takes a step back, which really hurts the team. They play a lot of low-scoring games, but lose more of them given their offensive regression, and Kansas State ends up at the back of the top 25.

My Take: I’m a very big fan of Kansas State this year. I think they showed what they are capable of in the tournament last season, and I expect them to have an excellent season. Wade and Brown should both be contenders for All-American status and Big 12 Player of the Year. I also really like a Cartier Diarra to have a breakout this season, and I expect him to be the starting point guard by conference play. They have a very good defense, and I believe they’ll be one of the best teams in the country. They should be in the top 15 all season and I think they’ll be a top 10 in the NCAA when all is said and done.

3. West Virginia

Best Case Scenario: Press Virginia returns, and they continue to create havoc on the defensive end. They do lose Jevon Carter and Daxter Miles, who were both incredible defensive players, but they should have an even deeper backcourt to replace those two. While inexperience will be a factor, Brandon Knapper, Jordan McCabe, Trey Doomes, and Jermaine Haley come in as freshmen and James “Beetle” Bolden returns as an offensive dynamo in the backcourt. Haley comes in and as a 6’6” point forward is excellent defensively, Knapper is a good distributor, and the backcourt combines to be a strong unit. The frontcourt shines, with  Esa Ahmad, Wesley Harris(pending a legal incident from the offseason), and Lamonte Harris are all good wing scorers and their length allows them to be very switchable on defense. The real star is Sagaba Konate, who is arguably the best shot blocker in the nation, and his jump shot improves this season, making him a better offensive player. With a lot more depth this year, the Mountaineers end up near the top 10 once again.
Worst Case Scenario: Bob Huggins and his team really miss Carter and Miles, especially offensively. They struggle with shot creation all season and none of the freshmen are able to step into a big role immediately. Ahmad plays more like he did last season, which is to say poorly, and Bolden isn’t great defensively, leading to the press regressing. Konate can’t take a step forward offensively and the whole offense doesn’t look as good as it has in years past. Without their leaders from last year, West Virginia struggles and misses out on the top 25.

My Take: I can’t overlook the losses of Carter and Miles, especially Carter. They were so vital to this team on the defensive end, hounding opposing guards up and down the floor. They should improve their depth in the backcourt, but lose quality, so I think that will be an area of regression. I’m also low on Beetle Bolden, despite his excellent nickname, since I think his lack of size will hurt him defensively, and I think he’s better as an off the bench scorer and spark plug than a key piece and starter. I do really like their frontcourt, and I do think Brandon Knapper can run the point well, so I think they end up near the bottom of the top 25.

4. TCU

Best Case Scenario: The Horned Frogs have a lot of talent on their roster and a lot of it comes together this season. Their two point guard system works wonders with Alex Robinson and a healthy Jaylen Fisher providing good ball handling and playmaking. Robinson is much more of a facilitator and Fisher a shooter, and along with wings Desmond Bane and Kouat Noi, they are an excellent three point shooting team. They also a solid group of newcomers with JUCO star Yuat Alok, redshirt freshmen Kevin Samuel, RJ Nembhard, and Lat Mayen, and true freshmen Kaden Archie and Kendric Davis. They all carry good pedigree and should contribute to a deep rotation for Jamie Dixon. TCU plays some solid defense, and ends up as a top 25 team all year.
Worst Case Scenario: TCU comes in this season and just can’t fit all the pieces together. Fisher struggles to stay healthy, and they can’t find a good replacement. Their shooting regresses and Robinson isn’t able to get anything going offensively. Defensively, they take a step back without Kenrich Williams and Vladimir Brodziansky, and no one steps in to replace them. The freshmen never fully put everything together and instead are inconsistent all season. The defensive woes really limit the team and they end up in the middle of the Big 12.

My Take: I think TCU has a very high floor. As long as Jaylen Fisher can get healthy, they should be excellent offensively. Even without him, I think they’ll be good. I really do worry about the defense, but I think Desmond Bane has the potential to be a plus defender, and I think overall he has an excellent season. I think we see a consistent rotation emerge with some of the newcomers, and I think TCU is a borderline top 25 team all year.

5. Iowa State

Best Case Scenario: After greatly underperforming last season, the Cyclones get back to the heights of the Georges Niang days this year. Lindell Wigginton kind of flew under the radar last season as a freshman despite scoring nearly 17 points a game. He can score from all three levels and is an excellent athlete who famously provided a highlight-reel dunk over Khadeem Lattin. Expect all that and more for Wigginton in his second season. He’ll be joined in the backcourt by Nick Weiler-Babb, who also went unheralded last year despite averaging over 11 points and roughly 7 rebounds and assists. He sustained an injury during conference play, but he’s back and he comes out and plays much like he did last season, and allows Wigginton to play off the ball. They have 3 newcomers on the wing in Virginia transfer Marial Shayok and top 150 freshmen Talen Horton-Tucker and Zion Griffin. Shayok improves their shaky defense, and the two freshmen offer a lot of length and defensively versatility out of the gate. The frontcourt is manned by Cameron Lard, Solomon Young, and Michael Jacobson, who all improve the shot blocking this year. Lard in particular has an excellent season for Iowa State and his physicality is too much for most defenses to handle. With lots of talent on the roster, the Cyclones crack the top 25 by the end of the season.

Worst Case Scenario: Despite the obvious potential of this team, Iowa State struggles again this year. Wigginton in unable to improve with loftier expectations and his efficiency goes down with increased defensive attention. Shayok doesn’t adapt to a new system, especially offensively, and the freshmen have some of their flaws exposed. The frontcourt isn’t very good defensively and the team as a whole doesn’t improve on that end. They don’t play up to their potential once again and once again miss out on March Madness.

My Take: I really like this team. I’m a huge fan of Wigginton and I think he’s a potential lottery pick this season. I also love Weiler-Babb and I think he’ll continue to stuff the stat sheet. I believe Cameron Lard is primed for a breakout, and I think Steve Prohm will actually have a good amount of lineup options with the ability to play Lard alongside either Young or Jacobson if he wants to play with two wings, or he could play Shayok or Horton-Tucker at the 4 and go with his classic 4 out, 1 in system. I’m also quite high on Horton-Tucker.  I have some questions about his shooting ability, but make no mistake, he’s very talented and should demand major minutes thanks to his 7’1” wingspan on the wing. This is a team that I could see flirting with the top 25 all year thanks to some very talented players.

6. Texas Tech

Best Case Scenario: Their many losses from last season are quickly forgotten, as their team comes together nicely. Jarrett Culver breaks out offensively after being a stout defender last season, and he especially improves shooting from deep and becomes one of the best players in the conference. He is aided by lots of newcomers, with transfers Matt Mooney and Tariq Owens and recruits Khavon Moore and Deshawn Corprew, all of whom could start alongside Culver. Mooney brings playmaking and toughness from South Dakota, Owens is an excellent shot blocker, and Moore and Corprew are recruits with high pedigree and upside. Point guard Davide Moretti plays like he did with the Italian U-20 team this summer, providing a major  oost off the bench. Brandone Francis is still a sharpshooter, and Norense Odiase is a physical presence in the paint. The defense is once again stout under Chris Beard with lots of athleticism all over the court. The Red Raiders have another year of surpassing expectations and end up in the top 25 once again.

Worst Case Scenario: Texas Tech lost too many pieces to bounce back this season. They especially miss the creation and scoring abilities of Keenan Evans, and they lack a playmaker offensively. Mooney can’t make the leap from the Summit League, and Moretti looks more like the player he did last year. Culver is unable to make the offensive leap, and both Moore and Corprew struggle with Big 12 play. Owens is still limited offensively, and the other returning players are very uninspiring offensively. This team is on the bubble all year and sneaks into the tournament in the play-in game.

My Take: I think I might be a little lower on this team than some others, but I think there are some serious question marks. I’m a huge fan of Jarrett Culver, and I fully expect him to take a big step forward and be an excellent two way player this season. I also really like Mooney and Moore and I think they’ll be very good right away. However, everything else is a question mark. Corprew struggled when he was at Texas A&M, and I don’t know if he’ll be much better this season. Owens is a good shot blocker and not much else, and I think people are seeing things in his offensive game that aren’t there. I think the bench has some solid role players, and I actually buy the Moretti hype from this summer. I think they’re in the next 10 or so teams after the top 25 and should be comfortably in the tournament this year.

7. Texas

Best Case Scenario: The Longhorns continue to play excellent defense this season. Shaka Smart is surely salivating with all of the returning athletes as well as their incoming recruits, so this team should once again be very good on that end. Offensively, their cavalcade of backcourt players develops some decent outside shooting. The best bet is Kerwin Roach, who is the only decent returning shooter, and he solidifies his stroke from deep, leading the charge offensively. He is once again joined by Matt Coleman and Jase Febres, both top 100 prospects in last year’s recruiting class, and both take the next step this year. There will also be top 50 freshman Courtney Ramey and transfer Elijah Long, both of whom should help solidify the ball handling and creation on this team. The frontcourt will also be aided by freshmen Gerald Liddell and Kamaka Hepa, who are both excellent athletes and should fit right in with this team’s defensive nature. Dylan Osetkowski should continue to play an important role offensively, and if he can consistently make his jump shot, he could be very dangerous. Jericho Sims figures to slot in as an energetic, athletic center, and he is a great shot blocker. Texas finally clicks offensively and their stout defense propels them into the top 25.
Worst Case Scenario: Texas has had one issue during the Shaka Smart era: jump shooting, and it continues this year. No one establishes themselves as a legitimate threat from deep, and Texas continues to be terrible from downtown. Without that element and the loss of Mo Bamba, the offense gets worse this season. Sims is unable to replicate Bamba’s production, and the lack of depth in the frontcourt hurts the Longhorns. The offense is unable to get going on Texas ends up missing the tournament.

My Take: I just want to talk about Andrew Jones for a second. He may not play at all this season, but if you were unaware, he was diagnosed with leukemia mid-way through last season. He announced this offseason that he had successfully overcome the cancer and would try to get back on the court. He has since suffered a fractured toe, so it is unclear if he can play this year. Regardless, he is a truly inspirational story and his struggle is bigger than basketball. Every college fan, no matter their allegiance, should be rooting to see this year, and he would certainly help this team. Otherwise, I think I feel like I’m low on the Longhorns compared to other places, but quite honestly I can’t see the love for this team. Sure they’re very good defensively, but no one has proven themselves to be a legitimate scoring threat, especially not from three. Unless someone, and really they need more than one player, can prove that they are a legitimate shooter, I don’t see how Texas is anything more than a bubble team this year.

8. Baylor

Best Case Scenario: The Bears come into the season with some question marks, but they manage to answer most of them in a convincing way. They get a full, healthy season from Makai Mason, who plays like he did against Baylor in the NCAA Tournament a few years ago. King McClure joins him in the backcourt, and along with Mirk Vital, those two play good defense as well as providing a relentless attack on the basket on the other end. Top 100 freshman Jared Butler joins them in the backcourt, and provides valuable minutes immediately, along with JUCO recruit Devonte Bandoo, who provides need floor spacing. The frontcourt has two players primed for breakouts in Mario Kegler and Tristan Clark, along with freshmen Matthew Mayer and Flo Thamba. Scott Drew has been very good at developing big men, so I expect Kegler and Clark to both be very good this season. There is enough length and athleticism on the roster to be a very good defensive team, and Baylor returns to March this season.
Worst Case Scenario: All of the aforementioned questions are answered in a bad way for Baylor. Mason can’t stay healthy and point guard play is shaky all year for Baylor. McClure, Vital, Kegler, and Clark all fail to develop offensively and the entire team struggles offensively all season. Defensively, the Bears uncharacteristically struggle as their unexperienced group isn’t up to the usual standard of a Scott Drew team. They once again fail to make the tournament behind inconsistent play on offense.

My Take: This is a team to me that I think is pretty similar to Texas. Lots of good, athletic players, but lots of concerns about their offensive play. For me, I think a lot of their success depends on whether or not Makai Mason can stay healthy. Without him, the point guard position is a huge question mark, and I think it’ll hurt the rest of the offense. I also think a lot of their success depends on multiple players having breakout seasons, and I doubt the ability of some of them, mostly Vital, to get there. I also think we know what kind of player King McClure is at this point, and I don’t think he gets that much better. I see them hanging around in the bubble conversation, but falling short again.

9. Oklahoma

Best Case Scenario: The Sooners will be without freshman phenom Trae Young this season, but they don’t miss him. Replacing Young at point guard are grad transfers Aaron Calixte from Maine and Miles Reynolds from Pacific, who may not replicate Young’s dynamicism and scoring, but they are solid addition who run Lon Kruger’s offense well while improving on the defensive end, an area which Reynolds should be especially valuable. The returning players are allowed to assume expanded roles in the absence of Young, and they thrive. The wing will be manned by seniors Christian James and Rashard Odomes, who were forgotten about with Young running the show, but are very capable players who have very good years, especially James, who continues to shoot well from deep and assumes the role of alpha dog in the offense. The frontcourt has Brady Manek, a stretch four who could breakout this season, Kristian Doolittle, who has never fulfilled his potential, and Jamuni McNeese, a good defensive big who could offer slightly more offensively this season. This is a much more balanced group, and one that is better defensively with the absence of Young, and the Sooners return to the tournament.

Worst Case Scenario: Turns out the guy who led the nation in points and assists per game and went fifth overall was pretty important to the team’s success. Neither Calixte struggles mightily on a decent team, and Reynolds also struggles with the upgrade in competition. Without Young, the players struggle to adjust to their new roles. After spending the majority of the previous season acting as spot up shooters, James, Odomes, and Manek aren’t able to create their own offense. McNeese and Doolittle don’t develop offensively, and the Sooners are much more gloom than boom as they miss out on the tournament.

My Take: I don’t worry as much about the loss of Trae Young as I do about those who were surrounding him last year. I don’t think any of them are anything special and I don’t see anyone who can initiate offense for himself or others. The two guys I do like are Christian James and Brady Manek. James should lead the team in scoring this year, and I like Manek to have a breakout. I also like McNeese as a rim protector, and I think the defense overall will be improved. However, I don’t see the Sooners doing anything notable enough to challenge for a tournament bid.

10. Oklahoma St

Best Case Scenario: Mike Boynton and the Cowboys continue to exceed expectations in his second year in charge of the Cowboys. Despite losing lots of production from last season’s team, OK State continue playing some high pressure defense, and have pieces click on the offensive end. They are lead by Miami (OH) transfer Michael Weathers, who is suspended to start the season, but comes back sooner rather than later and picks up where he left off in the MAC, when he led his team in points, assists, steals, and blocks, while also grabbing over 4 rebounds a game. He is joined by fellow transfers Mike Cunningham, who should provide experience and ball handling to a young group, and Curtis “Cujo” Jones, who will become eligible mid-year and is a good shooter, as well as freshman Isaac Likekele, who provides good defense from day 1. The only returning players from last season are Lindy Waters III, a talented wing, Thomas Dziagwa, who blossoms into a better player with more minutes, and Cameron McGriff, the lone returning big man. McGriff shoulders a much larger role in the frontcourt, although freshmen Yor Anei, Duncan Demuth, and Maurice Calloo help immediately. Oklahoma State once again wins some games against some very good teams, boosting their resume enough to get in off the bubble this year.

Worst Case Scenario: Weathers is out for a while, and the Pokes don’t have the depth to cover for him. No one really emerges as a go-to scorer, and the offense never gets going. The defense also regresses as the newcomers fail to adapt to the high pressure style. The frontcourt is a mess as the freshmen aren’t ready to contribute, but McGriff isn’t big enough to play the 5, leaving the Cowboys shorthanded. Without anyone able to score the ball or a defense that can get stops consistently, Oklahoma State struggles all year, especially during conference play.

My Take: The more I looked into this team, the less I liked them. They really need Weathers back from his suspension, but as of now there is no timetable for when he will return. Not having Jones for the first half of the season will hurt as well, leaving the backcourt precariously thin. The frontcourt is also thin, but things aren’t all bad. Once Weathers and Jones do become eligible, this team should be fun to watch, as along with McGriff and Waters, they should be very good. I don’t think this team will be as good as last year, and I don’t see them sniffing the tournament this season.

Awards

Player of the Year: Dedric Lawson, Kansas

Coach of the Year: Bruce Weber, Kansas St

Freshman of the Year: Quentin Grimes, Kansas

Newcomer of the Year: Dedric Lawson, Kansas

First Team All Big 12

G: Lindell Wigginton, Iowa St

G: Barry Brown, Kansas St
F: Dean Wade, Kansas St

F: Sagaba Konate, West Virginia
F: Dedric Lawson, Kansas

Second Team All Big 12

G: Jaylen Fisher, TCU

G: Jarrett Culver, Texas Tech

G: Desmond Bane, TCU

G: Quentin Grimes, Kansas

F: Udoka Azubuike, Kansas

Third Team All Big 12

G: Neil Weiler-Babb, Iowa St
G: Beetle Bolden, West Virginia

G: Michael Weathers, Oklahoma St

F: Esa Ahmad, West Virginia

F: Dylan Osetkowski, Texas