Big Ten Preview

The Big Ten experienced a down year last season as they only had four teams appear in the NCAA tournament. However, they did have one make a run to the finals, as Michigan put all the pieces together at the end of the year, as they always seem to do. They will look to bounce back this year with a much deeper league.

Team Previews

1. Michigan State

Best Case Scenario: With a solid core of 6 returning players factoring heavily into the rotation, Sparty is very experienced next year, which really helps the team. Their frontcourt is absolutely dominant in the pain, with three incredibly physical bigs in Nick Ward, Xavier Tillman, and Kenny Goins. They dominate the glass and the post on both ends off the court, and as other teams go small, they feast on smaller lineups. They are joined by Marcus Bingham Jr, Gabe Brown, and Thomas Kithier, who give them a more athletic look and can step out onto the perimeter on both ends. In the backcourt, Cassius Winston, Matt McQuaid, and Joshua Langford all improve on last season. Winston is once again an excellent ball handler, facilitator, and shooter, and he gets more opportunities offensively and increases his scoring. McQuaid continues to be a deadeye and looks better with even more minutes, and Langford becomes a more consistent and smarter player. All three defend well, and freshmen Foster Loyer provides scoring off the bench, while Aaron Henry is also a stout defender. With good floor spacing and post play offensively and another good defensive team, the Spartans win the Big East and are a top 10 team.
Worst Case Scenario: Michigan State lacks a star player without Miles Bridges and Jaren Jackson, and they struggle offensively. Winston is unable to create his own offense, and his efficiency takes a dive. McQuaid isn’t able to be anything more than a spot up shooter, and Langford is still plagued by inefficiency and inconsistency. Playing two bigs that can’t shoot together limits them offensively by clogging the lane and defensively since they aren’t able to guard on the perimeter. The freshmen aren’t ready to contribute, leaving the team with very little depth. Tom Izzo is doesn’t have the pieces to go with 4 out, but playing with two bigs hurts the team, so Michigan State ends up near the backend of the top 25.  

My Take: I have major questions about this team. I don’t think playing two bigs together is a good idea, and it didn’t work last season with Jaren Jackson Jr, who was far more mobile than Ward, Tillman, or Goins, and the team looked best with Miles Bridges at the 4. I don’t think they have the personnel to do something similar this year unless Brown develops into a contributor right away, or Bingham Jr ends up looking like a poor man’s Jackson Jr. I also wonder how good this team will be offensively, since they lack a go to scorer. I actually think that Langford could be that guy for this team if he can become more efficient this season. I don’t think Winston is really a natural scorer, and I think he regresses efficiency wise this season, but I love his game otherwise. This will be a good team that could be limited by their frontcourt.

2. Michigan

Best Case Scenario: The Wolverines enter the season on the back of a national championship appearance, and Big Ten Tournament win, and they have another successful year. The Wolverines have a solid group of returning players, led by Charles Matthews. Matthews grew into a much better offensive player as the year went on, mainly due to an improvement in his three point shot. He continues that this season along with being stout on the defensive end. Also coming back is point guard Xavier Simpson, who is an absolute bulldog on the defensive end and brings good ball handling and passing. He develops into a more consistent shooter, which helps his offensive game. The starting lineup is rounded out by role players last season, Jordan Poole, Isaiah Livers, and Jon Teske. Poole and Livers have breakout years as starters, especially Poole, who can score from all three levels and becomes a good defender. Livers is the other way around, already being good on the defensive end, and he becomes more consistency on the offensive end. Teske helps with paint protection and is good on the glass. Joined by a good freshman class, led by Ignas Brazdeikis and Brandon Johns, that develops as the year goes on, the Wolverines continue their defensive renaissance and partnered with a John Beilein offense, they break into the top 10 nationally.

Worst Case Scenario: Michigan misses all their lost production, Muhammad Ali Abdur-Rahkman, Moritz Wagner, and Duncan Robinson, on the offensive end, and they really struggle. There is limited floor spacing as none of Matthews, Simpson, or Livers develops their outside shot, leaving the team with basically no shooters. Poole and hyped up freshman Brazdeikis don’t have the big breakout seasons many expect, leaving them with basically no creation or shooting offensively. Defensively, they regress back to previous levels. The offense really struggles and Michigan barely sneaks into the tournament.

My Take: I’m betting on this team being really good for a few reasons. The first and most important is John Beilein. For my money, he’s one of the five or ten best coaches in the country, and I think he will have this team sorted out offensively. I also really love what they do on the defensive end, forcing teams into bad shots. I really like Matthews as the go-to guy and I believe in his jump shot being legit. I also think both Poole and Brazdeikis emerge as great offensive players, leaving Michigan as one of the top 25 teams in the country.

3. Maryland

Best Case Scenario: The Terrapins come into the year following a disappointing campaign last season, and quickly rebound. They have two cornerstones to build around in point guard Anthony Cowan and center Bruno Fernando. Cowan once again brings excellent play making and shooting while improving his decision making this season. Fernando is an incredibly athletic center who showed flashes of dominance last season, and I think he has a very nice breakout season. They will be joined by a very talented freshman class, led by big man Jalen Smith. Another freak athlete, he and Fernando form a formidable frontcourt duo on both ends, and they dominate the boards. They also bring in wings Aaron Wiggins, Eric Ayala, and Serrel Smith to supplement the lone returning wing, Darryl Morsell. Morsell is an excellent slasher and defender, while all three wings come in with reputations as good scorers, and they emerge as good long range shooters for a team that needs them. The Terps talent comes together and they end the season in the top 25.
Worst Case Scenario: Mark Turgeon has proven he can get talent, but he hasn’t proven himself as a coach, and that doesn’t change this year. Cowan isn’t able to be “the guy” for this team, and he continues to struggle with turnovers. Along with first year growing pains from Ayala, Wiggins, and Smith and no further development from Morsell, there is very little outside shooting. This hurts Smith and Fernando, and they aren’t able to showcase their athleticism with little space, and they don’t mesh and aren’t able to share the court. This is a classic case of talent not meshing along with some poor coaching, and Maryland disappoints and misses out on March once more.

My Take: I think after the two Michigan schools, you could toss the next 5 schools in a hat and pick for who finishes 3-7. I’m going with the team that I think has the highest ceiling in Maryland. I trust Mark Turgeon to be able to figure out the pieces and make this team work. If either Ayala or Wiggins can emerge as a consistent shooting threat, I really think Maryland is going to be a problem. They can continue to go small with Morsell at the four, as they did often last season, and space out the floor more, but I think Fernando and Smith can share the floor, especially if one or both can prove they can make mid-range shots, which evidence suggests they might be able to do. If not, keep an eye on Ricky Lindo, who wasn’t a big recruit, but has been drawing rave reviews in the preseason and could see time at the four. I wouldn’t be shocked if they are in the top 25 by the end of the season.

4. Indiana

Best Case Scenario: The Hoosiers have an excellent season with a very talented group. Returning for Indiana is star forward Juwan Morgan, who is once again excellent on both sides of the ball. He is joined by De’Ron Davis, a very physical presence, and Saint Mary’s transfer Evan Fitzner, who is able to stretch the floor. Indiana also brings in Jerome Hunter and Jake Forrester, two well regarded freshmen forwards. There is also a deep stable of wing options, led by star freshman Romeo Langford, who emerges as one of the best players in the league immediately. Archie Miller will also have some other versatile wings, including Justin Smith, who has a breakout year, Al Durham, and Zach McRoberts, who is one of the best glue guys in the country, along with freshman Damezi Anderson. The point guard position, which has been a problem for the Hoosiers for a while, is good this season, with incoming freshman Robert Phinisee seizing the role, and incumbent veteran Devonte Green providing good support off the bench. With a much improved offense, Archie Miller’s second season is a good one as he leads Indiana into the top 25.
Worst Case Scenario: The team doesn’t click and Indiana struggles all year. They don’t have much of an outside shooting presence as Fitzner doesn’t work out, and the freshmen are worse than expected, especially Langford, who folds under the pressure of “saving” the program. Point guard play is still a massive issue as Phinisee isn’t ready for Big Ten play and Green is still inconsistent. Morgan struggles to find room to operate without shooters to space the floor and has a disappointing year, while Davis is plagued by injuries. Defensively, the freshmen cause some regression, and the same goes on the boards. Indiana never looks cohesive and misses out on the tournament.

My Take: I keep getting more and more optimistic about this team. For starters, Juwan Morgan is really good and I expect that to continue this season. I also really like De’Ron Davis and Fitzner and I think this could be one of the best frontcourts in the conference. I also really like the idea of Phinisee and Langford sharing the backcourt, and I think Langford is going to be absolutely incredible this year. He will really change this team and make IU a tournament team this year.  

5. Nebraska

Best Case Scenario: The Huskers come off a successful season where many contended they should have made the NCAA Tournament. They make it this year, on the back of their excellent frontcourt. Starting at the 3, Tim Miles will turn to James Palmer to have another excellent year. He delivers, once again being a prolific scorer and playmaker while being a more than capable wing defender. The other two frontcourt spot will be manned by Isaiah Roby and Isaac Copeland, who both develop as rim protectors and rebounders. Copeland has good range and can stretch the floor, while Roby is much more adept at finishing around the rim. The backcourt will be manned by senior point guard Glynn Watson, who has a better season shooting the ball, and sophomores Thomas Allen, another shooter, and Nana Akenten, who takes big strides forward in his development. Along with an incoming recruit or two developing into a solid role player Nebraska cracks the top 25.
Worst Case Scenario: Palmer has another good season, but the pieces around him, not so much. Defensively, the team suffers with a lack of rim protection and neither Copeland or Roby is enough of a presence in the paint to deter the opposition, and opposing bigs have a field day with them. Roby doesn’t take the developmental forward many expect him to and has a poor season overall. The backcourt is a weakness, as neither Allen or Akenten develops as a starting caliber player, and Watson continues to struggle. With paper thin depth and some bad seasons, Nebraska misses out on the tournament entirely and Tim Miles’ job is in jeopardy.

My Take: I really like Nebraska this season. They’ve got an elite player in Palmer, some really good bigs with Copeland and Roby, and I think Watson rebounds this year. The biggest key will be getting some good minutes out of the bench, especially after conference play starts. If Allen or Akenten can emerge as a startable player, which I think Allen will, then I think there’s a good possibility Nebraska does very well. They remind me of Clemson, since they are very top heavy with questionable depth.  I think they make the tournament this year, largely on the back of a very versatile defense and a few very good players.

6. Purdue

Best Case Scenario: Purdue loses four key seniors, but they continue their Big Ten success. Carsen Edwards emerges as arguably the best player in the country, and does it all for Purdue. He scores whenever he wants, along with setting up his teammates. He’ll be joined in the backcourt by Ryan Cline, who like many on this team will be asked to step into a much larger role this year He functions as a knockdown shooter and secondary ball handler. Also look out for freshman Eric Hunter, who is a dynamic scorer. The frontcourt also figures to once again be a strength for the Boilermakers. Nojel Eastern wasn’t able to crack the rotation last season, but he is more than capable of being an impact player this year, especially on the defensive end and on the glass. They also bring back center Matt Haarms, who while similarly tall to Isaac Haas, offers a different look as a more prolific shot blocker and less of a post up player. Instead, look for Matt Painter to use him as a screen and dive player, along with Dartmouth transfer Evan Boudreaux. The entire should be excellent on the glass, and defensively, and with a few role players stepping into big roles, the Boilermakers are once again a top 25 team.
Worst Case Scenario: It’s really hard to lose as much as Purdue did and still be good, and they realize that this season. Edwards will be good, but inefficient as he has to do it all for the team. Cline offers very little outside of his shooting, Hunter isn’t ready to play major minutes, and Eastern doesn’t break out. Boudreaux looks like an Ivy League player, and Haarms, despite his height and length, gets pushed around in the paint and doesn’t have an expanded offensive game. They look like a team of role players, minus Edwards, and Purdue ends up on the wrong side of the bubble.

My Take: This is probably the team in that 3-7 range with the highest floor, because they have an All-American on their roster. That being said, this team being ranked in the AP Preseason Poll is shocking to me. It cannot be overstated that they lost 4 starters, who all player really big roles on both ends of the court. Edwards will be great, but I don’t fully buy anyone else really being that good. I like Boudreaux and I think he’ll be good, but I don’t see Cline as more than a poor man’s Dakota Mathias and I’m pretty low on Eastern and Haarms offensively. The incoming freshman class also is questionable, but I think Hunter and big man Trevion Williams can be role players this year. I do really like Matt Painter as a coach, and I think Purdue will be a solid team, but I don’t see them in the top 25.

7. Wisconsin

Best Case Scenario: After missing the tournament for the first time in the 21st century last year, the Badgers bounce back led by star senior Ethan Happ. Happ is excellent in the paint, with a bevy of post moves, a knack for rebounding, and he is also a skilled passer. He’ll be the centerpiece of everything Wisconsin does on the offensive end. He’ll be joined by a talented sophomore class, led by Brad Davidson. Davidson is an excellent shooter that should provide floor spacing, and he should see a fair share off ball handling duties alongside D’Mitrik Trice, who is known more for his defensive prowess. The wing will be manned my two excellent athletes in Khalil Iverson and Kobe King, who are both good in transition and at attacking the rim, and Brevin Pritzl, another shooter. They will also provide good defense for the Badgers. Alongside Happ in the frontcourt will be either Nate Reuvers or Aleem Ford, who are both stretch fours. The Badgers are a well rounded group and they are back where they belong in March.
Worst Case Scenario: This is still the same team that finished 7-11 in the Big Ten, and only won 15 games overall last season. Happ is still limited by his lack of a jump shot and he doesn’t get the help he needs from those around him. Davidson doesn’t develop into the playmaker many expect, and he still struggles with shooting. Iverson and Reuvers still can’t shoot, and the floor spacing is non-existent at times for the Badgers. Kobe King doesn’t look like the player he did before his injury, and Trice isn’t able to create his own offense. Without the breakouts from the sophomore class that are needed, Wisconsin misses the tournament for a second straight season.

My Take: I’ve seen a lot of people getting really excited about Wiscy, but I think they rely on a lot of breakouts. I’m fully sold on Happ as an All-American and Davidson becoming a very good second option. After that, I’ve got a lot of questions. I think either Reuvers or Ford can become a reliable stretch four, but I’m pretty down on Iverson because he just can’t shoot. I’m also pretty low on Trice and King until proven otherwise. I think they’ll make the tournament but never look like a team that should.

8. Minnesota

Best Case Scenario: The Golden Gophers program was hit with lots of off the court (Reggie Lynch, Richard Pitino's dad) and on the court (like half the team got injured) issues last season, but they bounce back this year. Jordan Murphy will continue to lead this team as a double double machine, doing work on the boards and being a bruiser in the paint. He’ll be joined in the frontcourt by Eric Curry, who missed all of last season with an injury, and Daniel Oturu, a highly regarded freshman. Both are also very good on the glass and excel as shot blockers, which makes Minnesota’s front court one no team wants to see. The Gophers lost point guard Nate Mason this offseason, but he has a ready made replacement in Isaiah Washington, of Jelly Fam fame. He improves his jump shooting along with his dynamic handles and finishing ability, making him a threat offensively. He is also able to dish to players like Dupree McBrayer, who is finally healthy, Amir Coffey, an established scorer, Michael Hurt, and Milwaukee transfer Brock Stull, who should bring needed floor spacing. With all their players healthy, Minnesota has a bounce back year and returns to March.

Worst Case Scenario: This team simply can’t stay healthy, leaving them in a very bad position. Coffey, McBrayer and Curry aren’t the same players they were prior to their injuries and their lack of production really hurt Minnesota. Murphy still isn’t a polished offensive player, and relies on offensive rebounds for easy opportunities. Washington doesn’t take the necessary step forward and is still more of a mixtape player. Oturu’s offensive game is still not ready, and Minnesota is left without a go-to scoring option. With more injuries, they have very little depth, and once again struggle to maintain relevance.

My Take: I don’t like to forecast injuries, since it’s so impossible to predict who will get hurt and when. But a major key for Minnesota is staying healthy, with multiple players who missed significant time. If they can, I really like the roster. I’m not Jordan Murphy’s biggest fan, but he’s good at what he does and this team should be very good on the class. I also don’t like Coffey, but I love Washington and I think he’ll be a very good player for Minnesota. If they can stay healthy, I can see them massively outperforming this ranking.

9. Iowa

Best Case Scenario: The Hawkeyes come out guns blazing on the offensive end, led by point guard Jordan Bohannon. He is both a capable playmaker and deadeye three point shooter, and he keeps things running smoothly on the offensive end. He has a plethora of options to get the ball to, including backcourt mate Isaiah Moss, who does a little bit of everything on the offensive end. The frontcourt is manned by Tyler Cook, Luka Garza, and Jack Nunge, all of whom are very intriguing pieces. Cook is a very skilled finisher in the low post, and does well on the glass. Garza is also a prolific rebounder with an improving three point jumper, and might see minutes on the wing despite being 6’11”. Finally, Nunge is filled with potential with deceptive speed and also developing a long range shot. He makes a nice sophomore leap and has a big breakout season. There is also plenty of depth with Nicholas Baer, Cordell Pemsl, and Ryan Kreiner returning from last season’s team, along with freshmen Connor McCaffery and Joe Wieskamp, who should be able to contribute immediately. Their defense, which was garbage last year, is improved with strong roster continuity from last year, and the length, athleticism, and talent finally comes together on that end. The team continues to improve and ends up comfortably in the NCAA Tournament.

Worst Case Scenario: Iowa continues to be absolutely atrocious on the defensive end. With the same cast of characters returning, things don’t get much better on the defensive end, although it is hard to see them getting worse. The offense, which was hyper efficient last season, is worse this year. None of the big guys can develop a reliable jump shot, making it nearly impossible to play all three at the same time, which hurts on the defensive end. Shooters like Bohannon are run off the three point line into a clogged lane and the offense is a mess all year. With a porous defense and an offense that is unable to get anything going, Iowa is once again a Big Ten bottom feeder.

My Take: I think I’m a little bit higher on the Hawkeyes than you might see elsewhere, but I think they could be very good this season. I love their offense, especially Bohannon, and I think there are a lot of different lineups Fran McCaffery could experiment with. The idea of Cook, Garza, and Nunge playing together is frightening, but one of them needs to be a consistent shooter from deep. However, the offense isn’t where my trepidation lies. Calling Iowa’s defense last season a sieve would be generous, since sieves do stop something. Iowa was really, really bad on that end last season, but with some switchable pieces, especially in the frontcourt, I think this could be a decent defensive team. I think they should be on the bubble all year and I think they might just sneak in.

10. Ohio State

Best Case Scenario: The Buckeyes outperform preseason rankings just as they did last season. Led by a sharp shooting backcourt of CJ Jackson and Keyshawn Woods, Ohio State looks great offensively. Jackson assumes the lead guard role he filled last season, and Woods, a Wake Forest transfer, provides needed experience for an overall young team. Speaking of youth, the rest of the starting lineup will be filled by freshmen Luther Muhammad and Jaedon DeLee and sophomore Kaleb Wesson. Muhammad and DeLee should have an immediate two way impact. Wesson is a force in the paint, and he cuts down on his foul issues and assumes a much larger offensive role. Kaleb’s older brother Andre should also see minutes on the wing and he will space the floor. Defensively, both freshmen look ready to go, which is big for a team that loses its two best defenders from last year. Kaleb Wesson takes a major step forward on that end, cutting down on fouls and becoming much more mobile. Chris Holtmann goes two for two on tournament berths as the Buckeyes return to March Madness.

Worst Case Scenario: Without leaders Keita Bates-Diop and Jae’Sean Tate, Ohio State struggles to replace their production. Neither Jackson nor Wesson assumes the role of lead scorer and they are left without a trustworthy option at the end of the shot clock. Muhammad and DeLee aren’t ready for Big Ten play, and Woods is little more than a role player. Defensively, the Buckeyes get gashed without Bates-Diop and Tate, and Wesson ends up being a liability on that end. They also lack a presence on the boards, and constantly allow easy second chance points. Ohio State regresses back to the level many expected for them last season.

My Take: I should probably move this team up a few spots based on the Chris Holtmann factor. The guy can really coach, and this roster has some solid players. To me, the problem is that they only have solid guys. I like Luther Muhammad a lot, but I don’t see him being the go-to guy this year. I’m pretty low of Kaleb Wesson, and I think without Bates-Diop a lot more of his defensive flaws will be exposed. I do like the backcourt a good amount, and I expect both Jackson and Woods to have good year, but I don’t see any all league players on this team, which is why I think they miss the tournament. But with Holtmann at the helm and lots of good, young pieces, plus a top 10 recruiting class in 2019, there are very bright days ahead for the Buckeyes.

11. Northwestern

Best Case Scenario: The Wildcats recover from their post-tournament hangover last season and have a nice bounce back year. They will be carried by a cavalcade of wings, led by their leading returning scorer Vic Law. He can score in a variety of ways and is also very good on the defensive end. Also returning is Aaron Falzon, a very good shooter and he solves his inconsistency problem this year. Joining them are three newcomers- Ryan Taylor from Evansville, AJ Turner from Boston College, and Miller Kopp, a top 150 recruit- who will provide new dimensions to the offense. Taylor might be the best scorer on the roster, averaging over 20 points a game at Evansville last season, and he and Law will be a handful to stop for any team. Turner, like Falzon, is a good shooter and should complement the other pieces nicely. Finally, Kopp is also a very good scorer and should see major minutes right away. Fellow freshman Peter Nance, brother of Larry Nance Jr., should also see lots of minutes in the frontcourt and will immediately provide tons of athleticism and bounce alongside senior Dererk Pardon. Pardon has developed into a very good post player on the offensive end as well as a stout defensive player whose presence is always felt in the paint. Rebounding is a strength for the Cats and they put together a tournament caliber season once again.

Worst Case Scenario: You’ll notice in the best case scenario one position isn’t mentioned: point guard. With Bryant McIntosh graduating last season and Jordan Lathon being dismissed from his scholarship, there is no heir apparent to the position. Chris Collins will be forced to rely on uninspiring returners Anthony Gaines and Jordan Ash and freshman Ryan Greer, who actually reclassified to help with the depth at the position. None of them seem like the answer and ball handling is a huge issue all year. Without a true point guard, the offense never runs smoothly, hurting the rest of the talented players. Taylor doesn’t handle the jump in competition well and Nance isn’t what many expect him to be. Defensively, Northwestern is nothing more than average and the lack of a point guard holds them back and keeps them out of the tournament.

My Take: The more I look at the roster, the more I like it and I feel like 11 is too low. Taylor and Law should be a formidable duo and with some good floor spacing options plus a good frontcourt, there’s a lot to like. However, the point guard position continues to be where I have questions. I don’t like any of their true point guards, and I think they’ll use a combination of wings to do most of the ball handling. That is a really interesting possibility if it works, since it would allow them to put a lot of talented players together on the floor. I’m probably a little to low on this team, but I have a lot of questions about how this rotation will shake out.

12. Illinois

Best Case Scenario: Brad Underwood has had a year to implement his system at Illinois, and with players ready to play in his high pressure defensive system, the Fighting Illini have a successful year. He brings in a talented and deep recruiting class of players that will play in his system. The class goes 7 deep, headlined by guards Ayo Dosunmu and Andres Feliz. They, along with sophomore Trent Frazier, should fit right into Underwood’s style on both ends. Frazier and Dosunmu are both talented slashing guards, while Feliz is a good shooter, which he showed at the junior college ranks last season. They also have some nice wing pieces in Kipper Nichols and Aaron Jordan, who should see minutes as small ball fours, and recruit Tevian Jones, another good shooter. There is also some size on the roster with Adonis de la Rosa transferring in from Kent State and another freshman, Samba Kane. With a reloaded roster full of Underwood guys, Illinois runs the system that had great success at Stephen F. Austin and Oklahoma State, and hangs around as a bubble team all year before a late surge sends them dancing.
Worst Case Scenario: The Fighting Illini continue their struggles for another year. The high-pressure, gambling style that Underwood loves to run proves to be ineffective as the constant gambles leads to easy buckets for the other team. Offensively, Underwood experiments with playing the three guards together, but the lack of size and two of them being relatively poor shooters makes the lineup unsustainable. The rumored “death lineups” featuring no bigs fail against some of the formidable frontcourts of the Big Ten, leaving Illinois in an even worse spot defensively. The team still doesn’t look comfortable in Brad Underwood’s system, and Illinois is once again in the basement of the Big Ten.

My Take: I’m a big Brad Underwood fan, but I don’t love this team. Outside of Frazier, none of these guys have made a significant impact at the Big Ten level, and most of them haven’t played a college game. It’s hard for me to believe in this team while relying on mixtapes and the word of recruiting experts. I think there is a good core here for future success, but I don’t see it this year.

13. Penn State

Best Case Scenario: Following a NIT winning season, Penn State keeps up their positive momentum and pieces together a good season despite the loss of star Tony Carr to the draft. Lamar Stevens and Josh Reaves assume larger roles offensively. Stevens is an athletic four who can take pretty much anyone off the bounce, while Reaves is the favorite to assume ball handling duties as well as stretching the floor. His shooting threat should help carve out more space for center Mike Watkins, an excellent defensive presence and rebounder. He’ll anchor the lineup along with John Harrar, who looked good in limited minutes last season. The backcourt will be young with freshmen Myles Dread, Myreon Jones, and Rasir Bolton. Dread has a reputation as a bucket getter and should make an immediate impact on what is a weak backcourt. The Nittany Lions surprise people with their performance on the court, and although they miss out on the postseason, they are fun to watch all year.

Worst Case Scenario: Without their star scorer and playmaker, the team struggles on offense. Reaves and Stevens are unable to create their own offense, leaving the success of the offense in the hands of inexperienced guards. They aren’t able to be Big Ten players out of the gate and ball handling is a major issue for the entire season. They also struggle defensively in the backcourt and Watkins can’t block everything. They aren’t able to do much of anything, leaving them near the bottom of the league.
My Take: I actually really like a lot of the pieces on their roster. Stevens and Watkins compliment each other perfectly in the frontcourt and I like the three freshmen guards, especially Dread, who I think can contribute immediately. This team should be better in a year when the freshmen develop and are able to replicate Carr’s production. This year could be a bit tougher as they transition into life post Tony Carr.

14. Rutgers

Best Case Scenario: Geo Baker and Eugene Omoruyi return from last year’s team, and both look like the very good players they flashed at times last season. Peter Kiss scores like he did at Quinnipiac, and freshmen Montez Mathis and Ronald Harper look good in their first year. Issa Thiem continues his transformation into a stretch five, giving Rutgers the shooting they need. Rutgers doesn’t finish last this season.
Worst Case Scenario: It can’t really get much worse for a team that has been awful since joining the Big Ten, winning just 9 games in 4 seasons in conference play. Not much changes from years past, as they look completely outmatched at every turn.

My Take: My dad is a Rutgers alum. I have friends attending the university, I grew up watching their games, and I loved the football teams with Ray Rice and Kenny Britt. But basketball was never their forte. No way to sugarcoat it. Certainly not in my lifetime. And it’s hard to see things changing this year. Hot take alert: I think Rutgers has good years coming. I like Steve Pikiell as a head coach, and I think there are some really good pieces here. Geo Baker is good, and the recruiting class is pretty good, featuring two pretty high level players with Mathis and Harper. Add in top 150 commit Paul Mulcahy in next year’s class and incoming transfer James Young from Texas, and Rutgers seems like they could be turning a corner as a program. Not this year, but be on the lookout for the Scarlet Knights in seasons to come.

Awards

Player of the Year: Carsen Edwards, Purdue
Coach of the Year: Archie Miller, Indiana

Freshman of the Year: Romeo Langford, Indiana

Newcomer of the Year: Romeo Langford, Indiana

First Team All Big Ten

G: Carsen Edwards, Purdue

G: Cassius Winston, Michigan St

G/F: James Palmer, Nebraska

F: Jordan Murphy, Minnesota

F: Ethan Happ, Wisconsin

Second Team All Big Ten

G: Anthony Cowan, Maryland

G: Charles Matthews, Michigan

G: Romeo Langford, Indiana

F: Bruno Fernando, Maryland

F: Juwan Morgan, Indiana

Third Team All Big Ten

G: Trent Frazier, Illinois
G: Jordan Bohannon, Iowa
F: Tyler Cook, Iowa
F: Nick Ward, Michigan St

F: Ryan Taylor, Northwestern