The 2018-19 basketball season is fast approaching, and I’m back with conference previews. We start with the best conference in college basketball, feel free to @ me, the ACC. They will once again supply 7-9 tournament teams and some of the most entertaining games of the year, featuring some of the best teams. As always, if you disagree or want to discuss my rankings further, I’m @ThreePointRange on Twitter, and I’m always down to talk college hoops. I’ll try to get the rest of the 5 major conference previews out soon before moving into the mid-major ranks. Without further ado, here is my ACC Preview
Team Previews
- Duke
Best Case Scenario: The star freshman all click and this team looks unstoppable from day 1, coming out firing against Kentucky in the first game of the year, and never look back. RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish compete for National Player of the Year as they both quiet any concerns about their long range shooting ability. Zion Williamson is everything he’s hyped up to be, absolutely dominating anyone who tries to guard him, especially on the interior. Tre Jones does an excellent job keeping everyone involved as well as making open shots when given them, basically being what Trevon Duval was supposed to be. Marques Bolden lives up to his potential and does excellent work with limited opportunities. Javin DeLaurier and Alex O’Connell provide valuable minutes off the bench and play their roles well. The lineup of Jones, O’Connell, Reddish, Barrett, and Zion keeps opposing coaches up at night and proves to be nigh unstoppable. Defensively, their length and athleticism suffocates opposing teams and Duke dominates on both sides of the ball en route to the number 1 rank in the country all season.
Worst Case Scenario: Despite all of the talent on the roster, the Blue Devils fail to gel and are inconsistent all season. None of the four freshmen are able to shoot from deep, allowing teams to sag off and pack the lane halting their dynamic slashing abilities. Barrett and Reddish show their sky high potential but never seem to be on at the same time and struggle to coexist. Zion’s lack of a jumper and height lead to him not playing as much as people expect and he struggles to get going at Duke. Jones plays much like Duval did last season, as his offensive game, particularly his jumper, never develops and he struggles all year. Bolden doesn’t receive as much playing time as he would like and ends up transferring at the end of the year. DeLaurier and O’Connell look outmatched whenever they are on the court, and Duke struggles for depth. Defensively, they are a mess and end up having to play zone again for long stretches. They struggle at the Maui Invitational and end up as a mid level Top 25 team.
My Take: I actually come into the season pretty low on Duke. I have legitimate worries about floor spacing for this team, especially if Zion is playing the 4. Of the 4 star incoming freshmen, RJ Barrett is the only one that I believe can develop a consistent jump shot this season. However, there is no denying the absolute star power on this team. When they get out in transition, it will be a thing of beauty, and probably impossible to stop. While their freshman class this season is better than last year’s, they also lack an experienced leader like Grayson Allen, so I think there could be a few unforeseen hiccups, and I wouldn’t be shocked if this team doesn’t win the ACC, or even if it falls outside the top 3. But, with all the talent on the roster, I have to believe Coach K can make it all work together and lead the Blue Devils to an ACC Championship.
- Virginia
Best Case Scenario: The Hoos are back with the pack line defense, and it stifles opponents once again. Tony Bennett and his squad bounce back from their loss to UMBC last season and once again dominate all season. Ty Jerome, Kyle Guy, and De’Andre Hunter all have excellent seasons on both sides of the ball, and Hunter emerges as a lottery pick while Jerome and Guy continue to shoot very well. The frontcourt of Mamadi Diakite and Jack Salt dominate the boards and Jay Huff and Francisco Caffaro provide solid work in the low post on the other side of the ball. The depth is improved from last season with the two backup big men as well as Marco Anthony and Kody Stattman, allowing the defensive intensity to maintain for all forty minutes as Virginia once again flirts with an undefeated season. And if transfer Braxton Key from Alabama is granted eligibility for this season, this team will gain even more offensive firepower and defensive versatility.
Worst Case Scenario: Virginia fails to recover from their 20 point upset loss in the first round of the tournament last season and struggles out of the gate this year. The slow pace of play comes back to haunt the the Cavaliers and they struggle to score offensively. Teams figure out the pack line and the vaunted defense isn’t the same as it was last year, and UVA struggles mightily. Guy and Jerome take a step back while Hunter flashes potential but never puts it all together. The starting frontcourt provides no offensive impact, the bench doesn’t develop into anything worthwhile, and Virginia ends up as a backend top 25 team.
Worst Case Scenario: Virginia fails to recover from their 20 point upset loss in the first round of the tournament last season and struggles out of the gate this year. The slow pace of play comes back to haunt the the Cavaliers and they struggle to score offensively. Teams figure out the pack line and the vaunted defense isn’t the same as it was last year, and UVA struggles mightily. Guy and Jerome take a step back while Hunter flashes potential but never puts it all together. The starting frontcourt provides no offensive impact, the bench doesn’t develop into anything worthwhile, and Virginia ends up as a backend top 25 team.
My Take: Ignore the loss to UMBC last season, and the Cavs had one of the best seasons in college basketball in recent memory. They return many key pieces from that excellent team, including coach Tony Bennett and the Pack Line defense. If Braxton Key is granted eligibility, I would place this team ahead of Duke, as I think he would allow them to do a lot of different things, especially on offense as De’Andre Hunter would be allowed to play the 4 more. Don’t worry about that loss in the tournament, the Hoos will once again be a top team in the country.
- North Carolina
Best Case Scenario: The Tar Heels decide to use the lineup that was painfully obvious to anyone watching last season: playing Luke Maye at center. This allows them to play their three star wings in returners Kenny Williams and Cameron Johnson and top 3 freshman Nassir Little. Williams and Johnson continue their knockdown shooting while Little turns out to be the best freshman in the ACC. Coby White proves to be a solid ball handler and facilitator to go along with his dynamic scoring ability. The bench bigs of Sterling Manley, Garrison Brooks, and Brandon Huffman provide solid minutes on both sides of the ball, although one of them, probably Huffman, transfer after the season. Defensively, they improve defending the three point line and the team outperforms their rival Duke on the way to a top 3 finish.
Worst Case Scenario: Roy Williams remains committed to running lineups with two bigs, pushing Maye to the 4 and more than likely send Cameron Johnson to the bench. White struggles to develop his facilitation skills and the Tar Heels never have consistent point guard play. With 2 bigs on the court, they struggle with floor spacing as well as perimeter defense, limiting their ceiling this season. When they do play with Maye at the 5, they struggle to get rebounds and defending on the interior. They never find the right lineup to succeed and the Tar Heels end up settling in the bottom half of the top 25.
Worst Case Scenario: Roy Williams remains committed to running lineups with two bigs, pushing Maye to the 4 and more than likely send Cameron Johnson to the bench. White struggles to develop his facilitation skills and the Tar Heels never have consistent point guard play. With 2 bigs on the court, they struggle with floor spacing as well as perimeter defense, limiting their ceiling this season. When they do play with Maye at the 5, they struggle to get rebounds and defending on the interior. They never find the right lineup to succeed and the Tar Heels end up settling in the bottom half of the top 25.
My Take: The Tar Heels lose a lot in Joel Berry and Theo Pinson, but they should be fine this season. Coby White and Nassir Little are ready made replacements for those two, and with Kenny Williams, Cameron Johnson, and Luke Maye returning along with an army of big men and incoming recruit Rechon Black, depth shouldn’t be an issue. I think the potential for this team is as high as any team in the country, with a potential First Team All-American and a probable top 3 pick in the NBA Draft along with a very good group of role players, I think UNC will be one of the best teams in the country and a title contender this season.
- Virginia Tech
Best Case Scenario: The Hokies continue to gun it from deep, and do it well. After shooting 38.8% from three last season. They return many of their best players, as other than Justin Bibbs, 7 of their top 8 scorers return, including second team All-ACC along with 3 other double-digit scorers. Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Admed Hill continue to knock down threes at a nearly 40% clip, and Ty Outlaw returns from injury with no hiccups and also knocks down the deep ball. Chris Clarke continues to thrive in his jack-of-all-trades role and improves on the offensive end. Kerry Blackshear also develops on the defensive end along with his solid post play. Landers Nolley comes in and compliments the rest of the roster well, and the Hokies end up being a top 10 team for most of the season.
Worst Case Scenario: The lack of size catches up to the Hokies this year, as Blackshear is their only rotation player standing above 6’7”. If he gets in foul trouble or injured, either Clarke or Nolley will be manning the center position. Their shooting efficiency falls back to Earth, and the offense doesn’t adapt. The Hokies continue to struggle defensively, especially on the interior along with allowing three point attempts, and the Hokies fall out of the top 25 before the start of 2019.
Worst Case Scenario: The lack of size catches up to the Hokies this year, as Blackshear is their only rotation player standing above 6’7”. If he gets in foul trouble or injured, either Clarke or Nolley will be manning the center position. Their shooting efficiency falls back to Earth, and the offense doesn’t adapt. The Hokies continue to struggle defensively, especially on the interior along with allowing three point attempts, and the Hokies fall out of the top 25 before the start of 2019.
My Take: The Hokies are absolutely excellent offensively. Buzz Williams is a stellar coach and he has the right personnel to play how he wants to play. I think Justin Robinson is going to have a great year, and he’ll be surrounded by one of the best shooting teams in the country. I also love Kerry Blackshear as a player and I think Chris Clarke will be invaluable to this team with his ability to play 3-5. I really like this group but I think there are some problems defensively that will keep them out of the upper echelon, although I wouldn’t be shocked if they beat a team like Duke this season.
- NC State
Best Case Scenario: The Kevin Keatts system thrives in its second year at NC State as it now has the players to succeed. Torin Dorn returns, and despite being 6’5”, plays the four and plays it well thanks to his bruising style. Transfer Devon Daniels, Eric Lockett, and CJ Bryce step right in and have big roles along with freshman wing Jericole Hellems. The point guard play continues to be excellent with Markell Johnson as one of the best passers in the country and Braxton Beverly and Blake Harris operate well as offensive spark plugs. They all work well in the press and keep the defensive intensity high. The frontcourt plays well as Wyatt Walker and Derek Funderburk both come in this year and provide solid minutes while being mobile enough to play in the press. The Wolf Pack fire on all cylinders as they grow into a borderline top 10 team.
Worst Case Scenario: All of the new players fail to click and they struggle out of the gate. They fail to adapt to the press and teams have a field day breaking it every game. The interior is a major weakness on both ends, and Walker battles injuries all year and the frontcourt depth is basically non-existent. The offense never fully comes along as players struggle to coexist, and the Wolf Pack are uninspiring but still make the tournament as a play-in team.
Worst Case Scenario: All of the new players fail to click and they struggle out of the gate. They fail to adapt to the press and teams have a field day breaking it every game. The interior is a major weakness on both ends, and Walker battles injuries all year and the frontcourt depth is basically non-existent. The offense never fully comes along as players struggle to coexist, and the Wolf Pack are uninspiring but still make the tournament as a play-in team.
My Take: I really love this team. I think they have the highest ceiling outside of the top 3 in this conference, and I could even see them pushing into the top 3 at the end of the year. Wyatt Walker needs to stay healthy after battling injuries last season, but if he stays on the court, I think the Wolf Pack will be tough to beat. I really like all the wings they have, as well as Markell Johnson. They have good depth in the backcourt and I love Keatts system, especially defensively. Watch out for NC State this year, I think they could be something special.
- Florida State
Best Case Scenario: The Noles build off of an Elite Eight run and continue to succeed with their heavy rotation system. The length of their entire team is absolutely insane. Their shortest player is Albany transfer David Nichols, who will provide a solid presence in the backcourt after a productive career at Albany. After him, their entire rotation is 6’4” and above. Their defense is excellent, largely due to their athleticism, length, and depth. They play almost exclusively wings, with players like Trent Forrest, MJ Walker, Terance Mann, Phil Cofer, PJ Savoy, RaiQuan Gray, and Devin Vassell all factoring into the rotation, and they all have defensive prowess and use it to shut down the opposition. The big man combo of Christ Koumadje and Mfiondu Kabengele continue to block everything in sight and the Seminoles go through stretches of absolute domination on the defensive end. Offensively, they get out in transition where they thrive thanks to their abundance of athletes and their depth allows them to run as much as they like. With all their players contributing, Florida State ends up in the top 10 for most of the season.
Worst Case Scenario: The Seminoles look more like the team we saw in ACC play that went 9-9 than the one that went deep in March. The wings all struggle from deep once again, and the depth proves to be a thorn as no one group plays together long enough to develop rhythm and the offense struggles for most of the year. Inconsistency plagues Florida State and they end up outside of the top 25 by the end of the season.
Worst Case Scenario: The Seminoles look more like the team we saw in ACC play that went 9-9 than the one that went deep in March. The wings all struggle from deep once again, and the depth proves to be a thorn as no one group plays together long enough to develop rhythm and the offense struggles for most of the year. Inconsistency plagues Florida State and they end up outside of the top 25 by the end of the season.
My Take: Florida State will be a nightmare to play against defensively. They go 10 deep and basically everyone is long and athletic. When they are in the open court, the Noles will be able to play with any team in the country. In the halfcourt, I have lots of questions about their offense. Only Phil Cofer is a really good shooter, and I think that in a slower game they will really struggle to score. This could very well be one of the most inconsistent teams in the country, but I think there will be much more good than bad.
- Syracuse
Best Case Scenario: The Orange continue to dominate with the 2-3 zone, absolutely shutting down opponents throughout the year. With more length and depth this season, the zone will continue to go strong in Jim Boeheim’s 43rd season. With players like Franklin Howard and Tyus Battle being asked to do less, the team’s efficiency improves, especially from long range. Oshae Brissett continues his breakout freshman year and improves even further, making him one of the best players in the conference. Marek Dolezaj has a breakout season of his own, and newcomers Jalen Carey and Elijah Hughes provide a scoring punch that wasn’t present last season. Paschal Chukwu and Bourama Sidibe anchor the middle of the zone, each playing stout defense and dominating the boards. The Orange build on their Sweet Sixteen run and end up as a borderline top 10 team in the country.
Worst Case Scenario: The inconsistent, sometimes just outright bad, play continues for Syracuse, specifically on the offensive end. Battle, Howard, Brisset, and Dolezaj all continue to struggle from deep, and Hughes and Carey don’t help much either. Teams continue to figure out the zone and the defense falls from its vaunted status last season. Dolezaj and Brisset plateau in their development, and Battle continues to have to chuck up shots late, and they continue to not fall. The Orange are once again on the bubble, but this time don’t get in.
My Take: Full disclosure here: I attend Syracuse University, so there might be a little bit of bias here. I do love the zone this year. The team has more depth, more length, and more skill this year, and it should result in an improvement over last season, especially in conference play. I do still have some worries about the offense, especially shooting the three, but I think the addition of Jalen Carey and the emergence of Marek Dolezaj will help lessen the load for Battle and Brissett. I think they finally get off the bubble this year after spending most of the season in the top 25.
- Miami
Best Case Scenario: The Canes 4-out, 1-in system works wonders for all involved. Dewan Hernandez(formerly Dewan Huell) thrives on the inside, as both an athletic roll man and a post up player. He is given plenty of space by the bevy of shooters Miami possesses, with Chris Lykes, Zach Johnson, Dejan Vasiljevic, Anthony Lawrence, Anthony Mack and Sam Waardenburg all consistently making shots from deep. The starting backcourt of Lykes and Johnson both dispel any concerns about themselves, Lykes proving he can play at a high level despite his 5’7” height and Johnson making the jump from A-Sun to ACC look seamless. Lykes continues to be one of the most fun players in college basketball, and Lawrence takes a big step forward to lead the Canes to a top 25 finish.
Worst Case Scenario: Without Bruce Brown and Lonnie Walker, the Hurricanes lack star power in Coral Gables. While Lykes continues to be incredibly fun, he struggles in an expanded role, especially on the defensive end. Johnson and Mack can’t handle the jump in competition and never look good. Vasiljevic proves to be nothing more than a shooter and Lawrence continues his streaky play. Hernandez along with backups Ebuka Izundu and Deng Gak struggle physically, especially in post up situations. The Miami defense is below average all season, and they end up on the wrong side of the bubble.
My Take: I think Miami will have a better year than some people think. Yes, the loss of Myles Wilson hurts this team, but he was always more of a depth piece than a real impact player. However, I really like Zach Johnson and Anthony Lawrence to have better years than people think. If I haven’t made it clear yet, Chris Lykes is one of my favorite players in college basketball. I think this team will look much different than they did last year. Losing Brown, Walker, and Ja'Quan Newton is tough, but none of them were great shooters, and I think this year’s team will be much better shooting from deep. This is a team that should compete in the ACC and I fully expect them to make the tournament this year.
- Clemson
Best Case Scenario: The Tigers star-studded returning trio of Shelton Mitchell, Marcquise Reed, and Elijah Thomas take on an expanded roles and all take steps forward this year. Mitchell and Reed continue their excellence in the backcourt, with Reed leading the way in terms of scoring and Mitchell taking on more ball handling and distributing while still getting his. Thomas continues to man the middle and averages a double double on increased touches on the offensive end. He still does excellent work on the offensive glass and blocking shots, and the pick and roll scheme of Brad Brownell perfectly compliments all three of his stars. Along with a breakout years from well regarded power forward Aamir Sims and highly touted recruit John Newman, the Tigers continue to have success in the ACC and once again earn a top 20 finish.
Worst Case Scenario: The Tigers really miss Donte Grantham and Gabe DeVoe, especially on the defensive end. Mitchell and Reed struggle as defenses key in on them more, leading to greatly reduced efficiency. Thomas is also a victim of more focus from defenses, often seeing double teams in the post, and he struggles to adjust. Sims looks more like the 4 point a game player he was last season than the 4 star recruit he was coming out of high school, and none of the bench players emerge, leaving Clemson without much depth, causing them to miss the tournament and Brownell’s seat becoming flaming hot.
Worst Case Scenario: The Tigers really miss Donte Grantham and Gabe DeVoe, especially on the defensive end. Mitchell and Reed struggle as defenses key in on them more, leading to greatly reduced efficiency. Thomas is also a victim of more focus from defenses, often seeing double teams in the post, and he struggles to adjust. Sims looks more like the 4 point a game player he was last season than the 4 star recruit he was coming out of high school, and none of the bench players emerge, leaving Clemson without much depth, causing them to miss the tournament and Brownell’s seat becoming flaming hot.
My Take: I’m pretty down on Clemson this year. While I think Mitchell and Reed are great players, I don’t love Elijah Thomas, and I saw nothing from anyone else on this team to give me any sort of confidence in someone stepping up to be a reliable option. Maybe John Newman can be that guy, but even then this is a pretty thin team and I’m still not fully sold on Brad Brownell as a coach I expect them to be on the bubble all season, and if this team misses the NCAA Tournament, I wouldn’t be shocked.
- Louisville
Best Case Scenario: Chris Mack turns this program around in year one, melding his incoming transfers and returning players into a cohesive unit. VJ King, Jordan Nwora, Darius Perry, and Malik Williams all take large steps into the type of players that they have flashed at various point in their careers, mostly in high school. Dwayne Sutton continues his hard-nose style of play and does the dirty work on defense and on the boards, allowing for his teammates to thrive in other areas. Transfers Khwan Fore and Christian Cunningham provide solid play the point guard position, while Akoy Agau and Steven Enoch give help on the interior. The Cardinals take a huge step forward and put the past behind them en route to an NCAA Tournament berth.
Worst Case Scenario: After losing 4 of its 5 top scorers, Louisville really struggles in the first year of the Chris Mack era. The new transfers prove to be nothing more than role players, and oftentimes ineffective against ACC competition. None of the former top prospects live up to their rankings, and continue their struggles for Louisville. It ends up being a long season for Louisville as they flounder to the depths of the ACC.
Worst Case Scenario: After losing 4 of its 5 top scorers, Louisville really struggles in the first year of the Chris Mack era. The new transfers prove to be nothing more than role players, and oftentimes ineffective against ACC competition. None of the former top prospects live up to their rankings, and continue their struggles for Louisville. It ends up being a long season for Louisville as they flounder to the depths of the ACC.
My Take: First off, I love Chris Mack as a coach, and I think it’s foolish to bet against talent either on the court or on the sideline, and Louisville has both. I buy VJ King emerging as a go-to scorer, and I love Jordan Nwora’s potential. I do think Darius Perry has ways to go and could end up off the court more often than on it thanks to the presence of Fore and Cunningham. I could see this team being similar to Ohio State last year and surprising people, but I think the Cardinals show flashes of their potential, but don’t put it all together. But with Mack at the helm and 4 top 100 recruits committed for 2019, there are much brighter days ahead for the Ville.
- Notre Dame
Best Case Scenario: Mike Brey brings together his cast of returning players and the one of the best recruiting classes in school history and makes them into another great Notre Dame team. The Irish are lead by TJ Gibbs and DJ Harvey on both sides of the ball as Harvey fulfills his massive potential and Gibbs builds on a stellar 2018-18 campaign. The new freshmen all contribute in big ways, providing needed depth, especially in the frontcourt. Rex Pflueger is one of the best glue guys in the country, and Irish go dancing once again.
Worst Case Scenario: Notre Dame really misses Bonzie Colson and Matt Farrell. Gibbs can’t handle the added responsibility, Harvey doesn’t break out, the freshmen aren’t ready for Division I play, and Pflueger is counted on for actual contributions. The team’s not so great defense limits their potential all year, as they can’t outscore opponents, and there is a transition year in South Bend.
Worst Case Scenario: Notre Dame really misses Bonzie Colson and Matt Farrell. Gibbs can’t handle the added responsibility, Harvey doesn’t break out, the freshmen aren’t ready for Division I play, and Pflueger is counted on for actual contributions. The team’s not so great defense limits their potential all year, as they can’t outscore opponents, and there is a transition year in South Bend.
My Take: As much as I love Mike Brey as a coach, I don’t know if he can succeed with this team. I flat out don’t think they are talented enough to compete with a lot of the teams in the ACC. I really like Gibbs and Harvey should have a nice breakout season, but the frontcourt isn’t very good and I don’t think this will be a very good defensive team. I think the Irish have another down year, but this will be a team to watch out for in 2019-20.
- Wake Forest
Best Case Scenario: The Demon Deacons bounce back from a down season with an excellent recruiting class. Led by 5 star forward Jaylen Hoard, who dominates from day one, Wake bounces back on both ends of the court. Joined by fellow newcomer Isaiah Mucius, a 4 star wing, Danny Manning’s group improves massively on the defensive end of the floor with more length and versatility. Sophomore Chaundee Brown joins Hoard and Mucius as a long, athletic wing, and all three, combined with big man Olivier Sarr, combine to form a formidable defensive squad. Offensively, Brandon Childress takes on an increased role and runs the offense admirably, improving all his numbers. Incoming transfer Torry Johnson picks up where he left off at Northern Arizona, Hoard and Mucius have polished offensive games from day 1, Brown makes a sophomore leap, and Sarr emerges as Manning’s next great big on both ends of the floor. This young squad takes many ACC opponents by surprise as they crack the top 10 and make the tournament.
Worst Case Scenario: Wake Forest misses all the production they lost from last season, and this young squad looks overmatched. All of the newcomers, Hoard, Mucius and Johnson, struggle with ACC play, and look overmatched. Sarr looks much more like the 3 PPG, 3 RPG player we saw last year, and Brown fails to capitalize on his potential. Childress is unable to be the leading man and Wake Forest’s turnover problems continue. Many fans in Winston-Salem are calling for Danny Manning’s job at the end of the season as Wake is near the bottom of the ACC after looking poor all season.
Worst Case Scenario: Wake Forest misses all the production they lost from last season, and this young squad looks overmatched. All of the newcomers, Hoard, Mucius and Johnson, struggle with ACC play, and look overmatched. Sarr looks much more like the 3 PPG, 3 RPG player we saw last year, and Brown fails to capitalize on his potential. Childress is unable to be the leading man and Wake Forest’s turnover problems continue. Many fans in Winston-Salem are calling for Danny Manning’s job at the end of the season as Wake is near the bottom of the ACC after looking poor all season.
My Take: I actually really like the potential of this Wake Forest team. I buy a breakout from both Sarr and Brown and I think Hoard can be a big contributor from day 1. I’m not as sold on Brandon Childress or Torry Johnson running the offense, or on Manning’s coaching abilities. I think he needs to put together a solid season this year and then have a breakout season next year, or else I think he will be out of a job. If everything breaks right, this team could be a shocker to most fans and teams, but I think this season will be filled with inconsistency as the younger players grow this year. This is another team that I think will be very good for the next few seasons.
- Boston College
Best Case Scenario: Without Jerome Robinson, Ky Bowman has an absolutely insane year for the Eagles. After a great season last year(17.6 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.5 SPG), Bowman improves and puts up an All-American type season. Jordan Chatman steps into Robinson’s shoes and is the Robin to Bowman’s Batman, continuing his hot shooting from last season. Steffon Mitchell and Nik Popovich continue to be very good in the frontcourt, doing work on the glass. Incoming recruits Jairus Hamilton and Wynston Tabbs step into big roles immediately and help the Eagles to a tournament berth.
Worst Case Scenario: Bowman’s efficiency dips to unsustainable levels as he needs to do everything for the Eagles. A reliable second option fails to emerge as Chatman struggles to create his own offense and none of the other players emerge as offensive threats. The Eagles defense doesn’t improve as they continue to finish near the bottom of the ACC in defensive metrics and they take a step backwards from last season.
My Take: Had Jerome Robinson returned, the Eagles would be much, much higher. However, without him, it’s hard to see BC having a better season than they did last year. Bowman will challenge for All-American status and I like Chatman and Hamilton, but the defense is woeful and I don’t see it getting that much better, so Boston College will probably have a disappointing season.
- Pittsburgh
Best Case Scenario: Jeff Capel and the Duffel Bag Boys admittedly don’t have the best outlook for the upcoming season. However, the good news for the new coach is things can’t really get much worse. After not winning an ACC game last season, the Panthers bounce back with a sneaky good team. Jared Wilson-Frame continues to emerge as a go-to option offensively and adds a jump shot this season as his efficiency improves. He is aided by a solid recruiting class of guards Trey McGowans and Xavier Johnson, and wing Au’Diese Toney as well as transfers Malik Ellison and Sidy Ndir. The frontcourt is manned by a rotation of Shamiel Stevenson, Kene Chukwuka, and Terrell Brown, who emerges as a reliable option as a sophomore. The Panthers end up looking, dare I say it, good at times during the season, and break out of the basement of the ACC.
Worst Case Scenario: In a shocking twist, Jeff Capel is fired days before the season and Kevin Stallings is brought back. In all seriousness, Pitt ends up missing the lost production of Parker Stewart and Marcus Carr, and Wilson-Frame’s efficiency does not improve, and he takes a step back. The two freshmen guards are plagued by turnovers all season, and Ndir plays like a WAC player trying to hang with ACC players. The frontcourt offers little in terms of offensive production. The entire team struggles defensively, and they once again finish at the bottom of the ACC. But they get a win, anything else would be downright cruel.
Worst Case Scenario: In a shocking twist, Jeff Capel is fired days before the season and Kevin Stallings is brought back. In all seriousness, Pitt ends up missing the lost production of Parker Stewart and Marcus Carr, and Wilson-Frame’s efficiency does not improve, and he takes a step back. The two freshmen guards are plagued by turnovers all season, and Ndir plays like a WAC player trying to hang with ACC players. The frontcourt offers little in terms of offensive production. The entire team struggles defensively, and they once again finish at the bottom of the ACC. But they get a win, anything else would be downright cruel.
My Take: Like some of the other teams in the bottom half of the ACC, I don’t hate this roster. There are some really interesting pieces here. I liked Ndir a lot at New Mexico State, and I think he’ll be solid this season. Wilson-Frame will operate as the number one option, which I don’t love, but it’ll do as the younger players develop. I think Brown could break out, and even if he doesn’t, he’ll still be good defensively thanks to his 7’3” wingspan. I also like this recruiting class, although I don’t think Toney will be a meaningful contributor this season, but I do think McGowans will have some really great games this season. Jeff Capel should be able to bring in more talent and give the Pitt faithful some hope.
- Georgia Tech
Best Case Scenario: The backcourt combo of Jose Alvarado, top 51 recruit Michael DeVoe, and Tennessee transfer Shembari Phillips each pour in points from all three levels for the Yellow Jackets. Each has an impressive season and turns the offense around. The wing players offer impressive length and versatility, especially on the defensive end, where Josh Pastner's group is once again excellent. The same can be said for the frontcourt, where Evan Cole and Abdoulaye Gueye offer a nice combination of rebounding and blocks along with the occasional bucket. Georgia Tech’s defensive identity is enough to pull off a few wins against ACC opposition and get them into the NIT.
Worst Case Scenario: The defense takes a step back from where it has been the past few seasons, but the offense doesn’t improve. With the trio of Alvarado, DeVoe, and Phillips all being fairly undersized, Pastner has to play some not so stellar offensive players. The lack of offensive production from most of the team puts too great a burden on the three guards, and their efficiency rates are awful as they are forced into plenty of bad shots. No one else emerges as a scoring option and the Yellow Jackets finish last in the conference.
Worst Case Scenario: The defense takes a step back from where it has been the past few seasons, but the offense doesn’t improve. With the trio of Alvarado, DeVoe, and Phillips all being fairly undersized, Pastner has to play some not so stellar offensive players. The lack of offensive production from most of the team puts too great a burden on the three guards, and their efficiency rates are awful as they are forced into plenty of bad shots. No one else emerges as a scoring option and the Yellow Jackets finish last in the conference.
My Take: As you can tell by their ranking, I’m much closer to the worst case scenario for this team. Outside of the three guards, I don’t think anyone else on this roster can create their own shot. I also don’t think Alvarado is all that good, and I think he’ll continue to struggle with turnovers. He seems like he’d be better suited if he took a step down from the ACC to a league like the A-10. I also don’t think the defense holds the level it’s been at with no one as talented as Josh Okogie or Ben Lammers on this roster, so I think Georgia Tech ends up in the basement of the ACC this year.
Awards
Player of the Year: Luke Maye, UNC
Coach of the Year: Kevin Keatts, NC State
Coach of the Year: Kevin Keatts, NC State
Freshman of the Year: RJ Barrett, Duke
Newcomer of the Year: RJ Barrett, Duke
All ACC First Team
G: Tyus Battle, Syracuse
G: RJ Barrett, Duke
G: Kyle Guy, Virginia
G: Ky Bowman, Boston College
F: Luke Maye, UNC
All ACC Second Team
G: Justin Robinson, Va Tech
G: Cam Reddish, Duke
G/F: Nassir Little, UNC
F: Zion Williamson, Duke
F: Dewan Hernandez, Miami
All ACC Third Team
G: TJ Gibbs, Notre Dame
G: Torin Dorn, NC State
G: Torin Dorn, NC State
G/F: De’Andre Hunter, Virginia
G/F: Oshae Brissett, Syracuse
F: Phil Cofer, Florida St
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